High-Brightness LED
Applications and Market
Trends
  ACEEE 2006 Summit on Emerging
  Technologies for Energy Efficiency
  ...
Outline

 Introduction
 High-Brightness LED Markets
 Solid-State Lighting
 Outlook and Forecast




                   2
Technology Scope
 Will focus discussion on semiconductor-
 based inorganic LEDs
 Organic LEDs (OLEDs) have potential in th...
LED History
LEDs have been in commercial production for over 35
years (billions and billions sold)
For 25 years mainly use...
LED History (cont.)

 LED materials “revolution” occurred in the early-mid 1990s
 InGaAlP developed by HP and Toshiba prod...
LED Performance History
(Red)        “Haitz’s Law”
         100.000


                                                    ...
HB LED Market Drivers

 Full color spectrum, including white
 High visibility, including full sunlight conditions
 Long li...
Outline

 Introduction
 High-Brightness LED Markets
 Solid-State Lighting
 Outlook and Forecast




                   8
HB LED Application Space
                         Other                Mobile Appliances
                 Indicators, smal...
HB LED Market History

                          CAGR = 42% (1995-2005)

            4,500
            4,000
            3...
2005 Market
  Market grew by 6% to $3.9 billion
    Units grew by 24% to 23.6 billion
  Dramatic slowdown from 37% growth ...
Recent Market History

            4,500
            4,000
            3,500                              Other
          ...
2005 Applications
Breakout

            Illumi-     Other
            nation       12%
               6%
  Signals
    2%
...
Outline
 Introduction
 High-Brightness LED Markets
 Application Trends
 Solid-State Lighting
 Outlook and Forecast




   ...
LED Illumination or “Solid-
State Lighting”
 Illumination includes applications in which LEDs
 are used to illuminate an o...
Illumination or “Solid-State
Lighting” (cont.)
 LEDs are much more expensive than
 conventional light sources, but ..
   T...
LED Lighting Applications
(partial list)
  Architectural               Consumer portable
  Retail display              (fl...
LED Lighting Products



          Philips Lighting



                                  Color Kinetics


Optiled

       ...
LED Lighting - Hospitality




              19
LED Lighting – Contour
Lighting and Channel Letters




             20
LED Lighting - Architectural




             21
LED Specialty Lighting



                          Landscape Lighting
 Machine Vision




                           Ente...
LED Residential Lighting




              23
LED Lighting Market
Development
      Market is being developed by lighting
      systems companies targeting specific
   ...
White LEDs for Lighting
 Vast majority of white LEDs sold today use a
 blue LED chip + a “yellowish” phosphor to
 achieve ...
RGB Color Mixing for White
Light




    TIR Systems LEXELTM

                      26
Outlook for White LED
    Performance*
               120

               100
                            Cool W hite
    ...
Hurdles to be Overcome
for Penetration of General
Illumination
  Lower cost, higher efficiency white LEDs
  Standards (e.g...
LED Lighting Market
Evolution
               100


                10
                                                    ...
National Solid-State
Lighting Programs
US Next Generation Lighting Initiative (NGLI) passed by
Congress in 2005; funded at...
National Drivers for Solid-
State Lighting
Huge potential for energy savings
  Typically 20-25% of electricity is used for...
Outline
 Introduction
 High-Brightness LED Markets
 Solid-State Lighting
 Outlook and Forecast




                   32
Outlook for HB LEDs
 Overall outlook for HB LEDs continues to be
 highly positive, in spite of recent slowdown
 due to Mob...
HB LED Market
Forecast
             9,000
             8,000
             7,000                                    Other
 ...
Thanks for your attention.




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High Brightness LED Applications and Market 2006

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  • High brightness LED's are the wave of the future. Check out some excellent high power LED's at http://www.ledlightingwholesale.com/c/68/energy-efficient-high-power-led-super-bright-powerful-led-light-bulbs
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High Brightness LED Applications and Market 2006

  1. 1. High-Brightness LED Applications and Market Trends ACEEE 2006 Summit on Emerging Technologies for Energy Efficiency October 26, 2006 Robert V. Steele Strategies Unlimited rsteele@strategies-u.com
  2. 2. Outline Introduction High-Brightness LED Markets Solid-State Lighting Outlook and Forecast 2
  3. 3. Technology Scope Will focus discussion on semiconductor- based inorganic LEDs Organic LEDs (OLEDs) have potential in the long term to be used for lighting, but they are still in the R&D stage for this purpose High-brightness inorganic LEDs have been in the commercial market for 10 years and already have a foothold in the lighting market 3
  4. 4. LED History LEDs have been in commercial production for over 35 years (billions and billions sold) For 25 years mainly used as small indicator lamps and alphanumeric displays Because of limitations of materials technology (GaP and GaAsP): Did not have full color spectrum (e.g. blue and green) Could not use in full sunlight outdoor conditions High-brightness AlGaAs introduced in mid-1980s by HP and Stanley Electric High brightness, but limited to 660 nm (deep red) 4
  5. 5. LED History (cont.) LED materials “revolution” occurred in the early-mid 1990s InGaAlP developed by HP and Toshiba produced high- brightness red, orange and yellow (ROY) InGaN developed by Nichia, Toyoda Gosei and Cree produced high-brightness blue and green (and white, using blue + phosphor) Devices fabricated with sophisticated production tools – metalorganic chemical vapor deposition (MOCVD) - rather than LPE and VPE used in conventional LEDs In the past 10 years, performance of HB LEDs has improved dramatically, and prices have fallen steadily 5
  6. 6. LED Performance History (Red) “Haitz’s Law” 100.000 Flux/Package 10.000 Cost/Lumen Lumens or 1.000 $/lumen 0.100 -10x/Decade 0.010 +20x/Decade 0.001 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: Roland Haitz 6
  7. 7. HB LED Market Drivers Full color spectrum, including white High visibility, including full sunlight conditions Long lifetimes (10s of thousands of hours) Energy efficient Compact Automated assembly Digital addressing for displays and lighting 7
  8. 8. Outline Introduction High-Brightness LED Markets Solid-State Lighting Outlook and Forecast 8
  9. 9. HB LED Application Space Other Mobile Appliances Indicators, small displays Illumination amusement, misc. other HB LED Market Signs and Displays Signals Automotive 9
  10. 10. HB LED Market History CAGR = 42% (1995-2005) 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 Revenue 2,500 ($ Million) 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 10
  11. 11. 2005 Market Market grew by 6% to $3.9 billion Units grew by 24% to 23.6 billion Dramatic slowdown from 37% growth in 2004, and 2001-2004 average of 46% per year Most applications showed reasonable growth, but Mobile Appliance market stagnated Severe pricing pressure for low-end products due to excess capacity: e.g. keypad backlights 11
  12. 12. Recent Market History 4,500 4,000 3,500 Other 3,000 Illumination Revenue 2,500 Signals ($ Million) 2,000 Automotive 1,500 Signs/Displays 1,000 Mobile Appliances 500 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 12
  13. 13. 2005 Applications Breakout Illumi- Other nation 12% 6% Signals 2% Auto- Mobile motive Appliances 14% 52% Signs/ Displays 14% Total: $3.9 Billion 13
  14. 14. Outline Introduction High-Brightness LED Markets Application Trends Solid-State Lighting Outlook and Forecast 14
  15. 15. LED Illumination or “Solid- State Lighting” Illumination includes applications in which LEDs are used to illuminate an object or surface Not viewed directly (e.g. signs, signals) Market is in early growth phase Highly fragmented Many companies making lighting products Niche applications Many non-standard, off-the-shelf products Applications range from very small (e.g. flashlights, reading lamps) to multimillion dollar projects 15
  16. 16. Illumination or “Solid-State Lighting” (cont.) LEDs are much more expensive than conventional light sources, but .. They can provide features not achievable with conventional light sources Many applications driven by higher efficiency and longer lifetimes of LEDs Most applications are for colored lighting White light applications are growing The goal of LED lighting is not just to replace light bulbs, but to provide additional value 16
  17. 17. LED Lighting Applications (partial list) Architectural Consumer portable Retail display (flashlights, headlamps) Hospitality (hotels, restaurants) Signage (channel letters) Entertainment Landscape Accent and decorative Outdoor area lighting Safety/security Solar-powered, off- Machine vision grid Pool and spa Residential Museums 17
  18. 18. LED Lighting Products Philips Lighting Color Kinetics Optiled Permlight 18
  19. 19. LED Lighting - Hospitality 19
  20. 20. LED Lighting – Contour Lighting and Channel Letters 20
  21. 21. LED Lighting - Architectural 21
  22. 22. LED Specialty Lighting Landscape Lighting Machine Vision Entertainment Pool and Spa 22
  23. 23. LED Residential Lighting 23
  24. 24. LED Lighting Market Development Market is being developed by lighting systems companies targeting specific applications Both large (e.g. Philips, Osram, GE) and small companies Each application requires a unique approach Selling points for LEDs include: High reliability/low maintenance Long lifetime Cost competitive on life cycle basis Esthetics, quality of light Unique solution to a lighting problem Satisfies regulatory requirements (e.g. Calif. Title 24) 24
  25. 25. White LEDs for Lighting Vast majority of white LEDs sold today use a blue LED chip + a “yellowish” phosphor to achieve white appearance Addition of red phosphor can improve white color spectrum (i.e. “warm” white) Newer, more sophisticated white lighting products are using RGB color mixing plus feedback and control to maintain, or change, white balance Most efficient way to produce white 25
  26. 26. RGB Color Mixing for White Light TIR Systems LEXELTM 26
  27. 27. Outlook for White LED Performance* 120 100 Cool W hite 80 W arm W hite Fluorescent Luminous Efficacy 60 CFL (lumen/watt) 40 20 Incandes- cent 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 *Commercially available LEDs 27
  28. 28. Hurdles to be Overcome for Penetration of General Illumination Lower cost, higher efficiency white LEDs Standards (e.g. definition of lifetime) Binning and color consistency issues Lighting industry understanding of unique properties of LEDs; customer acceptance Establish sales channels into traditional lighting applications Integration of drivers, thermal management, optics, controls for “plug-and-play” solutions 28
  29. 29. LED Lighting Market Evolution 100 10 Total quot;Lampquot; Market Size General Market 1 LED Lighting ($ Billion) Illumination Broader Adoption 0.1 Specialty Niches 0.01 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 29
  30. 30. National Solid-State Lighting Programs US Next Generation Lighting Initiative (NGLI) passed by Congress in 2005; funded at $20 M/yr Japan national program since 1998, continuing National SSL initiatives underway in: Taiwan South Korea China Combination of government plus private efforts could make China the largest market for solid state lighting 30
  31. 31. National Drivers for Solid- State Lighting Huge potential for energy savings Typically 20-25% of electricity is used for lighting Potential annual energy cost savings is $10s- 100s billion per country Reduced oil imports Reduced CO2 emissions Technological leadership in a new industry 31
  32. 32. Outline Introduction High-Brightness LED Markets Solid-State Lighting Outlook and Forecast 32
  33. 33. Outlook for HB LEDs Overall outlook for HB LEDs continues to be highly positive, in spite of recent slowdown due to Mobile Appliance saturation Market will advance across a wide range of applications, including newer ones such as backlighting for LCD monitors and TVs, and automobile headlamps Illumination will be a major market driver Projecting ~$1 billion in 2010 33
  34. 34. HB LED Market Forecast 9,000 8,000 7,000 Other 6,000 Illumination Revenue 5,000 Signals ($ Million) 4,000 Automotive 3,000 Signs/Displays 2,000 Mobile Appliances 1,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 34
  35. 35. Thanks for your attention. 35

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