Establishing Likelihood Estimations for FMD Exposure and Spread Due to the Movement of Weaned Pigs - Dr. Heidi Vesterinen, Dr. Riikka Soininen, from the 2017 Allen D. Leman Swine Conference, September 16-19, 2017, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA. More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2017-leman-swine-conference-material

1. Estimating the risk of moving
weaned pigs during an FMD outbreak
Riikka Soininen, DVM &
Heidi Vesterinen, DVM

2. Objective
Establishing likelihood estimations for FMD
exposure and spread due to the movement of
weaned pigs

3. To prevent this

4. Risk Assessment

5. Pathways

6. STOP MOVEMENT
3. Likelihood of FMDv
release during transport of
infected but undetected pigs
5. Likelihood of
susceptible pigs in
transit getting infected
by airborne
transmission of FMDv
4. Likelihood of
susceptible pigs in
transit to get infected
through exposure to
FMDv contaminated
surfaces trucks
2. Likelihood of detecting
infected swine on origin
site prior to movement
Infected
Virus released
No virus
released
Infected
and
detected
Destination Site
Farrowing Site (Origin)
1. Likelihood of farrowing
site in a control zone
becoming infected with
FMD
Infected
Infected
6. Likelihood of
susceptible species at
destination premises get
infected by direct contact
with infected but
undetected pigs
Infected
Not infected
Not infected
Not infected
Not infected
TRANSIT
TRANSIT
Pig movement
Possible outcome

7. Farrowing Site (Origin)
1. Likelihood of farrowing
site in a control zone
becoming infected with
FMD
Infected
Not infected
TRANSIT
Pig movement
Possible outcome

8. 5. Likelihood of
susceptible pigs in
transit getting infected
by airborne
transmission of FMDv
4. Likelihood of
susceptible pigs in
transit to get infected
through exposure to
FMDv contaminated
surfaces trucks
Farrowing Site (Origin)
1. Likelihood of farrowing
site in a control zone
becoming infected with
FMD
Infected
Not infected
Not infected
Not infected
TRANSIT
Pig movement
Possible outcome
Infected

9. Pathway 4 Likelihood of susceptible
weaned pigs in transit getting infected
via exposure to FMDv-contaminated
truck surfaces
• Literature review
• Routine and Enhanced Biosecurity
Recommendations
• Qualitative evaluation of risk
• Risk Rating and Conclusion

10. How could susceptible pigs in transit get
infected through FMDv contaminated truck
surfaces?

11. Likelihood estimation and
conclusions
• Likelihood is LOW if enhanced
biosecurity is used and C&D is done
adequately
• Likelihood may be LOW to MODERATE
in temperatures below freezing

12. 5. Likelihood of
susceptible pigs in
transit getting infected
by airborne
transmission of FMDv
4. Likelihood of
susceptible pigs in
transit to get infected
through exposure to
FMDv contaminated
surfaces trucks
Farrowing Site (Origin)
1. Likelihood of farrowing
site in a control zone
becoming infected with
FMD
Infected
Not infected
Not infected
Not infected
TRANSIT
Pig movement
Possible outcome
Infected

13. STOP MOVEMENT
5. Likelihood of
susceptible pigs in
transit getting infected
by airborne
transmission of FMDv
4. Likelihood of
susceptible pigs in
transit to get infected
through exposure to
FMDv contaminated
surfaces trucks
2. Likelihood of detecting
infected swine on origin
site prior to movement
Infected
and
detected
Farrowing Site (Origin)
1. Likelihood of farrowing
site in a control zone
becoming infected with
FMD
Infected
Infected
Infected
Not infected
Not infected
Not infected
TRANSIT
TRANSIT
Pig movement
Possible outcome

14. STOP MOVEMENT
3. Likelihood of FMDv
release during transport of
infected but undetected pigs
5. Likelihood of
susceptible pigs in
transit getting infected
by airborne
transmission of FMDv
4. Likelihood of
susceptible pigs in
transit to get infected
through exposure to
FMDv contaminated
surfaces trucks
2. Likelihood of detecting
infected swine on origin
site prior to movement
Virus released
No virus
released
Infected
and
detected
Farrowing Site (Origin)
1. Likelihood of farrowing
site in a control zone
becoming infected with
FMD
Infected
Infected
Infected
Not infected
Not infected
Not infected
TRANSIT
TRANSIT
Pig movement
Possible outcome

15. STOP MOVEMENT
3. Likelihood of FMDv
release during transport of
infected but undetected pigs
5. Likelihood of
susceptible pigs in
transit getting infected
by airborne
transmission of FMDv
4. Likelihood of
susceptible pigs in
transit to get infected
through exposure to
FMDv contaminated
surfaces trucks
2. Likelihood of detecting
infected swine on origin
site prior to movement
Infected
Virus released
No virus
released
Infected
and
detected
Destination site
Farrowing Site (Origin)
1. Likelihood of farrowing
site in a control zone
becoming infected with
FMD
Infected
Infected
6. Likelihood of
susceptible species at
destination premises get
infected by direct contact
with infected but
undetected pigs
Infected
Not infected
Not infected
Not infected
Not infected
TRANSIT
TRANSIT
Pig movement
Possible outcome

16. • Weaned pig movement risks are affected by
–Biosecurity
•at the sow farm,
•during transportation, and
•at the destination farm.
–Ability to detect clinical signs of disease
Take home messages

17. • The time to plan and prepare is now
–Identify your origin and destination
sites
–Make a robust biosecurity plan
–Be able to detect the clinical signs of
FMD and participate in surveillance
Take home messages