Where are the bulk of the security industry? The Fat Tail Distribution Hypothesis by Tony Ridley
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Where is the 'bulk' of the security industry distributed? The variance between the concentration of the majority and full distribution of the spectrum helps to visualise the 'industry' actors. A guide for 'members', practitioners, professionals, employers and peers alike. The fat tail distribution hypothesis
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Critical Infrastructure and Systems of National Significance (Australia)Enterprise Security Risk Management
Throughout, and in the wake of a global pandemic, many countries have re-evaluated what exactly constitutes critical infrastructure and the importance of this infrastructure or systems of state/national significance. This reflection has also reconsidered exactly what critical infrastructure, facilities or systems of national significance mean to the country, community, and national security. Australia is no exception. However, not only has Australia informally re-evaluated the nature and status of its critical infrastructure but it has also broadened both the definition and legislation mandating greater security and risk management.
The context and impact of Australia’s reflexive security risk management actions and legislation have yet to be considered in full, especially as it relates to public/private security, and more importantly enterprise security risk management. That is, aside from the considerable change in critical infrastructure legislation, what does it mean for the information, knowledge and practice of security management and risk management within an organisational, infrastructure context? More specifically, when and where security and risk are conjoined as siloed functions? As a result, this discussion and information paper seeks to introduce the topic of critical infrastructure and systems of national significance as a contemporary challenge or mature consideration for security and/or risk management practices.
While focused on Australia primarily, the critical infrastructure discourse has security risk management implications for most countries and jurisdictions. This paper explores global opinions, prior research and explicit public security guidance from national agencies and authorities about security risk management and critical infrastructure. It is therefore hoped, this initial summary and supporting observations spawns and supports a new age of security and risk sciences within the protection and resilience of critical infrastructure, systems of national significance and enterprise security risk management.Critical Infrastructure & Systems of National Significance: Security Risk Man...
Critical Infrastructure & Systems of National Significance: Security Risk Man...Enterprise Security Risk Management
This information and discussion presentation offers the first step in unpacking and understanding the change, requirements and demands of security and risk management practices and processes within the critical infrastructure and systems of national significance. Moreover, this presentation explores the technical and professional nuances of security management and risk management and how it is inadequately defined or communicated in legislation and practice. Posing the greatest question for governments, operators, and security/risk practitioners. Security for who, when, how, to what standard and in what context? In addition to the reality that if ‘risk’ management was inadequate and unable to self-regulate or evolve to face the evolving and changing threats, what changed? In short, changing laws, rules and expectations fails to raise the bar of security and risk management practices without a commensurate increase in the underlying information, knowledge, education and experience of security and risk representatives. This deficit will not be corrected nor rectified overnight, with the subsequent ‘gap’ likely evident for years after the new threat and legislation. For now, the current individual and collective risk profile is likely that of fragility and vulnerability, not resilience, with the greatest liability that of humans, not infrastructure.Why drunk driving, untested medicines and wild guesses are SAFER then your tr...
Why drunk driving, untested medicines and wild guesses are SAFER then your tr...Enterprise Security Risk Management
Travel risk ratings: The risk is not the advance forecast, it is the reckless and negligent recalibration once events become past, past becomes data and data become evidence. It is the proof of specific, contextual numbers that makes drunk driving, untested medicines and random guesses SAFER than travel risk ratings because before the event and data was uncertainty, after the accumulation of numbers, there is a certainty. Sydney terrorism.media fear and facts.security risk management. tony ridley. ...
Sydney terrorism.media fear and facts.security risk management. tony ridley. ...Enterprise Security Risk Management
The document discusses research on the relationship between media, terrorism, and risk perception. It provides summaries of several academic sources that cover topics such as:
1. How social media provides opportunities for terrorists but algorithms alone do not shape communication.
2. Exposure to terrorism news increases perceived risk but not self-risk, and understanding how risk perceptions are shaped is important.
3. Definitions of terrorism were not seen to change after attacks, only reaffirming prior conceptions from media cases.Security risk management as a sport.tony ridley.security consultant
Security risk management as a sport.tony ridley.security consultantEnterprise Security Risk Management
Tony Ridley is an international security and risk management professional. His LinkedIn profile describes security risk management as a sport with the following characteristics:
1) It involves many varied individuals and groups such as players, opposition, trainers, umpires, coaches, managers, and owners, each with their own objectives, skills, motivations, and roles that can change over time.
2) The field of play for managing security risks can be anywhere in the virtual or physical world, and the conditions and rules are also varied and change regularly.
3) Performance in security risk management is difficult to measure objectively as indicators often lag behind and are influenced by outside observers, audiences, and commentators removed fromSecurity regulation, standards and governance.security risk management.tony r...
Security regulation, standards and governance.security risk management.tony r...Enterprise Security Risk Management
Tony Ridley is an international security and risk management professional on LinkedIn. He is a member of the Security group on LinkedIn where he connects with other professionals in the security field. His profile provides information on his experience and expertise in security, regulation, standards and governance.Security expert witness.what is it.tony ridley.security risk mangement.securi...
Security expert witness.what is it.tony ridley.security risk mangement.securi...Enterprise Security Risk Management
The document discusses the benefits of exercise for mental health. Regular physical activity can help reduce anxiety and depression and improve mood and cognitive function. Exercise causes chemical changes in the brain that may help protect against mental illness and improve symptoms for those who already suffer from conditions like depression and anxiety.Security expert witness.preparations.enquiries.tony ridley.security risk mana...
Security expert witness.preparations.enquiries.tony ridley.security risk mana...Enterprise Security Risk Management
The document discusses the benefits of exercise for mental health. Regular physical activity can help reduce anxiety and depression and improve mood and cognitive functioning. Exercise causes chemical changes in the brain that may help protect against mental illness and improve symptoms.Security and risk management. from subject matter expert to business leader.t...
Security and risk management. from subject matter expert to business leader.t...Enterprise Security Risk Management
The document discusses the benefits of exercise for mental health. Regular physical activity can help reduce anxiety and depression and improve mood and cognitive function. Exercise causes chemical changes in the brain that may help protect against mental illness and improve symptoms for those who already suffer from conditions like depression and anxiety.Security and risk management in emerging and developing markets.tony ridley.s...
Security and risk management in emerging and developing markets.tony ridley.s...Enterprise Security Risk Management
The document discusses the benefits of exercise for mental health. Regular physical activity can help reduce anxiety and depression and improve mood and cognitive functioning. Exercise causes chemical changes in the brain that may help protect against mental illness and improve symptoms.8 security masters degrees compared.security risk management.tony ridley.se...
8 security masters degrees compared.security risk management.tony ridley.se...Enterprise Security Risk Management
This document contains references and short quotes from various sources related to security, risk management, and criminology. It discusses topics such as the fit between military/police backgrounds and security roles; degrees awarded in India; bounded rationality in criminal decision making; deterrence and backlash effects of crackdowns; the limited impact of police patrol techniques; life expectancy tables from ancient Rome; generalism versus specialization; and a quote on tools and problems. The document serves as a collection of references on a variety of topics relevant to security and risk management.Appreciation process.time critical decision making.security risk management.t...
Appreciation process.time critical decision making.security risk management.t...Enterprise Security Risk Management
The document describes Tony Ridley's appreciation process for time critical decision making. The process involves sequentially assessing the situation to form an implementable plan. It includes analyzing the objective, considering courses of action and factors, and producing a plan with the best course of action, criteria for implementation, and contingencies for unexpected issues. The appreciation process provides a methodical approach to prioritized problem solving in urgent situations.Cheap and nasty.security certification.tony ridley.security consultant
Cheap and nasty.security certification.tony ridley.security consultantEnterprise Security Risk Management
The document discusses the benefits of exercise for mental health. Regular physical activity can help reduce anxiety and depression and improve mood and cognitive functioning. Exercise causes chemical changes in the brain that may help protect against mental illness and improve symptoms.Educational levels of professionals.a guide.tony ridley.security risk managem...
Educational levels of professionals.a guide.tony ridley.security risk managem...Enterprise Security Risk Management
This document appears to be the profile page of Tony Ridley, who works in international security and risk management. It includes his references and links to his LinkedIn profile. It also contains multiple excerpts and citations from academic works about issues in corporate and private security such as the need for effective security systems, qualifications for security directors, the importance of business skills in security management, the accreditation of university security courses, the challenges with industry groups, and issues with applying risk management standards to security risk management.Fat tail distribution hypothesis.tony ridley.security risk management.securit...
Fat tail distribution hypothesis.tony ridley.security risk management.securit...Enterprise Security Risk Management
The document is a LinkedIn profile of Tony Ridley, an international security and risk management professional. It includes information about his membership in security industry groups and lists references related to security education distributions, the security industry distribution, and concepts like the fat tail distribution hypothesis, Pareto principle, and power law. The references are cited in relation to analyzing security industry problems historically to help guide solutions for the future.Forecastings.intelligence.predictions.experts.accuracy.security science.risk ...
Forecastings.intelligence.predictions.experts.accuracy.security science.risk ...Enterprise Security Risk Management
The document discusses a 20-year analysis conducted by a professor that found experts to be routinely wrong in their predictions. The analysis examined 284 highly educated experts and over 82,000 estimates of the future. It also found that random volunteers from around the US outperformed the $50 billion per year US Intelligence community in forecasting geopolitical events, even when intelligence analysts had access to classified information. The document advocates for an "evidence-based forecasting" approach similar to evidence-based medicine, moving away from decision making based on experience and authority toward quantification and analysis.Get to the point..faster.tony ridley.security risk management
This document provides a summary of George Orwell's 1946 essay "Politics and the English Language" and lists six essential rules for clear communication. The rules advise using short words over long, cutting unnecessary words, using active voice, and avoiding foreign phrases, scientific jargon, and metaphors that have lost their original meaning. An example is given of metaphors like "ring the changes" and "hotbed" that Orwell argued had become meaningless due to overuse.
Educational levels of professionals.a guide.tony ridley.security risk managem...
Educational levels of professionals.a guide.tony ridley.security risk managem...Enterprise Security Risk Management
This document appears to be the profile page of Tony Ridley, who works in international security and risk management. It includes his references and links to his LinkedIn profile. It also contains multiple excerpts and citations from academic works about issues in corporate and private security such as the need for effective security systems, qualifications for security directors, the importance of business skills in security management, the accreditation of university security courses, the challenges with industry groups, and issues with applying risk management standards to security risk management.Takes a thief to catch a thief.security ethics.tony ridley.security risk mana...
Takes a thief to catch a thief.security ethics.tony ridley.security risk mana...Enterprise Security Risk Management
Tony Ridley is an international security and risk management professional with references listed. The document discusses evidence that skilled poachers were not favored recruits to become gamekeepers, as the skills required for poaching differ from those needed for gamekeeping. While some knowledge of poaching techniques could help with policing aspects of gamekeeping, managing game resources requires a different skill set. The document also notes that while the phrase "poacher-turned-gamekeeper" is often used to describe bad actors being recruited into security, there is little evidence that this was common practice historically.More from Enterprise Security Risk Management (20)
Post Pandemic Travel: Terrorism and Security Risks for Tourists
Post Pandemic Travel: Terrorism and Security Risks for Tourists
Critical Infrastructure and Systems of National Significance (Australia)
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Educational levels of professionals.a guide.tony ridley.security risk managem...
Educational levels of professionals.a guide.tony ridley.security risk managem...
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Where are the bulk of the security industry? The Fat Tail Distribution Hypothesis by Tony Ridley
- 1. TonyRidley-InternationalSecurity&RiskManagementProfessional https://www.linkedin.com/in/tonyridley/ Member of The "Bulk" of the Security Industry The Fat Tail Distribution Hypothesis Level1 Level2 Level3 Level4 Level5 Level6 Level7 Level8 Level9 Level10 100 75 50 25 0 "Complex adaptive systems often tend to evolve towards a critical state - the slope of a the sandpile increases until it approaches chaos" (Orrell, 2017) TheMean Diploma TheMedian Degree Masters' PhD Service C ertification AccreditationLevel1Level2Level3Level4Level5Level6Level7Level8Level9Level10 100 75 50 25 0 TheMedian TheMean Figure 1 - Security Education Distribution Figure 2 - Security Industry Distribution "when there are a lot of people willing and able to do a job, that job doesn't usually pay well" (Levitt and Daubner, 2006) "The 80/20 Power curve is the most important chart in any business" (Marshall, 2013)
- 2. TonyRidley-InternationalSecurity&RiskManagementProfessional https://www.linkedin.com/in/tonyridley/ Member of The "Bulk" of the Security Industry The Fat Tail Distribution (Taleb, 2007) Hypothesis Failure of Invariance Prospect Theory Pareto Principle Power Law Zipf's Law Regression to the Mean "There is no difference other than in accounting conventions between a cost and a loss." (Bernstien, 1996) "Many of the industry's problems (lack of regulation, poor training, corruption) continue to exist in a number of states, and looking at these problems historically should give us guidance for the future" (George and Kimber, 2014) References: See Also: Berstien, P. (1996) Against the Gods: The remarkable story of risk, Wiley & Sons,p.276. George, B. and Kimber, S. (2014) 'The history of private security and its impact on the modern security sector', in Gil, M. (ed) The Security Handbook, 2nd edn, Palgrave McMillan, p. 37. Levitt, S. and Dubner, J. (2006) Freakonomics, New York: Harper Collins.p.95. Marshall, P. (2013) 80/20 Sales and Marketing, Entrepreneur Media, p.41 Rachev, S., Menn, C. and Fabozzi, F. (2005) Fat-Tailed and Skewed Asset Return Distributions: Implications for Risk Management, Portfolio Selection, and Option Pricing, Wiley and Sons, p.41. Taleb, N. (2007) The Black Swan, Random House and Penguin. P.219. Orrell, D. (2017) Economyths: 11 Ways Economics Gets It Wrong, Icon Books, p.215. Tetlock, P. and Gardner, D. (2015) Superforecasters: The Art and Science of Probability, London: Random House.pp.241-246. Ridley, T. (2019) Education Levels: Professionals (Guide) Corporate and Private Security, available at https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6546649491423014912