01RBI Training - PPT_Client Training.pptx
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01RBI Training - PPT_Client Training.pptx
- 1. RISK BASED INSPECTION THEORY TRAINING Mosaic Faustina September 10, 2014
- 2. We could say โinspect this asset every 5 yearsโโฆ WHY RISK-BASED INSPECTION? โฆBut instead, we should calculate the inspection interval.
- 3. WHAT IS RISK? RISK = CONSEQUENCE x LIKELIHOOD
- 4. โ Structural assets โ Dependent on site knowledge/history โ Analysis done externally โ Results input into PCMS โ Process assets โ Dependent on data โ Calculation based โ Results generated within PCMS QUALITATIVE VS. QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS
- 5. QUANTITATIVE RISK RISK = CONSEQUENCE x LIKELIHOOD
- 6. Consequence Risk Drivers โข Release Quantity โข Process Constituents โข Lost Production Probability Risk Drivers โข Design Conditions โข Age of Equipment โข Susceptibility to Damage โRisk drivers are items affecting probability and/or consequence such that it constitutes a significant portion of the risk.โ RISK DRIVERS
- 7. โExtent to which an Event is likely to occur within the time frame under consideration. The mathematical definition of probability is a real number in the scale 0 to 1โ Also referred to as likelihood or frequency in the industry. PROBABILITY
- 8. โOccurrence of a particular set of circumstances. The event may be certain or uncertain, singular or multiple.โ Also described as a loss of containment due to a failure. EVENT
- 9. โA process that induces micro and/or macro material changes over time that are harmful to the material condition or mechanical properties.โ DAMAGE MECHANISM Damage Mechanism Categories โข Internal Loss of Thickness โข External Loss of Thickness โข Environmentally Assisted Cracking โข Mechanical and Metallurgical Failure โข General โข Local Damage Types
- 10. Probability is calculated for each susceptible damage mechanism in PCMS. PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ = ๐๐๐ โ ๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ข๐ญ Where: Gff = Generic Failure Frequency DF = Damage Factor
- 11. โA probability of failure developed for specific component types based on a large population of component data that does not include the effects of specific damage mechanisms.โ GENERIC FAILURE FREQUENCY Gff tables found in API 581- Part 2, Table 4.1 Equipment type Gff (failures/yr) Heat Exchanger 3.06E-05 Pipe 3.06E-05 Tank 650 Tank Bottom 7.20E-04 Tank 650 Tank Shell 1.00E-04 Pressure Vessel 3.06E-05
- 12. โAn adjustment factor applied to the generic failure frequency to account for damage mechanismsโ that may be present as a function of time in service for a specific asset. For thinning mechanisms: DAMAGE FACTOR Where: A = Age R= Rate of Corrosion T= Original Thickness ๐๐ โ ๐ โ ๐ ๐ AR/T Thickness Loss Damage Factor AR/T Thickness Loss Damage Factor < 0.08 1 0.25 to 0.30 650 0.08 to 0.10 2 0.30 to 0.35 750 0.10 to 0.12 6 0.35 to 0.40 900 0.12 to 0.14 20 0.40 to 0.45 1050 0.14 to 0.16 90 0.45 to 0.50 1200 0.16 to 0.18 250 0.50 to 0.55 1350 0.18 to 0.20 400 0.55 to 0.60 1500 0.20 to 0.25 520 >0.60 1900 AR/T tables found in API 581- Part 2, Table 5.11
- 13. Determination of the effectiveness of the inspection in identifying and quantifying the type and extent of damage per damage mechanism. As per API effectiveness ranges from Highly Effective (A) to Ineffective (E). Mosaic uses A, B, & C. INSPECTION EFFECTIVENESS API 581 Figure 4.3 Failure Mode Standard (C) Medium (B) High (A) Internal Thickness Loss 10 100 1000 External Thickness Loss 10 100 1000 Environmentally Assisted Cracking 3 10 30 Mechanical & Metallurgical Failure 3 10 30 Inspection Effectiveness Table
- 14. INSPECTION EFFECTIVENESS Mosaic MI Documents, Table 2: Guidelines for Assigning Inspection Effectiveness โ General Internal Corrosion Inspection Category Inspection Effectiveness Category Intrusive Inspection Non-Intrusive Inspection A Highly Effective >50% visual examination of the surface area (internals removed as required) with follow- up by UT, RT or pit gauge as required Record spot UT measurements at likely location(s) with min of 1 CML per fitting1/section2 B Usually Effective >20% visual examination of the surface area (internals removed as required) with follow- up by UT, RT or pit gauge as required Record spot UT measurements at likely location(s) with min of 0.5 CML per fitting1/section2 C Fairly Effective <20% visual examination of the surface area (internals removed as required) with follow- up by UT, RT or pit gauge as required Record spot UT measurements at likely location(s) with min of 0.25 CML per fitting1/section2 No Credit Ineffective Less than โCโ effectiveness, no inspection or ineffective inspection technique used Less than โCโ effectiveness, no inspection or ineffective inspection technique used
- 15. PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ = ๐๐๐ โ ๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ซ๐๐๐ข๐ญ Remember:
- 16. โAn outcome of an Eventโฆmay be one or more consequencesโฆconsequences are always negative for safety aspectsโ. Environmental and Economic consequences are also always negative. CONSEQUENCE Remember: An Event is an occurrence of a set of circumstances, also a loss of containment due to a failure.
- 17. Consequence can be calculated as either total or worst case. For Mosaic: CONSEQUENCE CALCULATION ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐๐ช๐ฎ๐๐ง๐๐ = ๐๐๐ฑ [๐๐๐๐ฅ๐ญ๐ก & ๐๐๐๐๐ญ๐ฒ, ๐๐ฆ๐๐ ๐, ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐ข๐ซ๐จ๐ง๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ฅ, ๐๐๐จ๐ง๐จ๐ฆ๐ข๐]
- 18. Consequence associated with product releases affecting personnel (site and community). Image consequence often goes hand in hand with Health & Safety. HEALTH & SAFETY H&S Consequence Drivers: โข Flammable Events โข Toxic Events โข Vapour Cloud Explosions (VCE) ๐๐&๐ $ = ๐๐๐ฑ ๐๐&๐ ๐ ๐ฅ๐๐ฆ , ๐๐&๐ ๐๐จ๐ฑ , ๐๐&๐ ๐๐๐
- 19. HEALTH & SAFETY: FLAMMABILITY ๐๐&๐ ๐ ๐ฅ๐๐ฆ = ๐๐ฎ๐ฆ ๐๐&๐ ๐ ๐ฅ๐๐ฆโ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ , ๐๐&๐ ๐ ๐ฅ๐๐ฆโ๐ฆ๐๐๐ข๐ฎ๐ฆ , ๐๐&๐ ๐ ๐ฅ๐๐ฆโ๐ก๐ข๐ ๐ก Flammability Rating Flammability Description High Flammable & Operating Temp > Auto-ignition Temp Medium Flammable & Flash Point < Operating Temp < Auto-ignition Temp Low Flammable & Flash Point > Operating Temp None Not Flammable Release Quantity (tons) Flammability Rating Min Max Low Medium High 50 9,999,999 $ 500,000 $ 5,000,000 $ 10,000,000 25 50 $ 500,000 $ 5,000,000 $ 5,000,000 5 25 $ 50,000 $ 500,000 $ 5,000,000 1 5 $ 5,000 $ 50,000 $ 500,000 0 1 $ - $ 5,000 $ 50,000
- 20. HEALTH & SAFETY: TOXICITY ๐๐&๐ ๐๐จ๐ฑ = ๐๐ฎ๐ฆ ๐๐&๐ ๐๐จ๐ฑ,๐ , ๐๐&๐ ๐๐จ๐ฑ,๐ , ๐๐&๐ ๐๐จ๐ฑ,๐ , ๐๐&๐ ๐๐จ๐ฑ,๐ , ๐๐&๐ ๐๐จ๐ฑ,๐ Toxic Rating Toxic Description 5 Extremely Toxic (HF and HCN) 4 Highly Toxic (H2S, Cl2, NH4) 3 Medium Toxicity (Benzene, CO) 2 Harmful but not Toxic (Most Hydrocarbons) 1 Inert, not Toxic Concentration (%) Toxicity Potential Min Max 1 (None) 2 (Low) 3 (Medium) 4 (Medium High) 5 (High) 10% 100% $ - $ 5,000 $ 500,000 $ 5,000,000 $ 10,000,000 1% 10% $ - $ 500 $ 50,000 $ 500,000 $ 5,000,000 0.1% 1% $ - $ - $ 5,000 $ 50,000 $ 500,000 0% 0.1% $ - $ - $ 500 $ 5,000 $ 50,000
- 21. HEALTH & SAFETY: VCE ๐๐&๐ ๐๐๐ = ๐๐ฎ๐ฆ ๐๐&๐ ๐๐๐,๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ , ๐๐&๐ ๐๐๐,๐ฆ๐๐๐ข๐ฎ๐ฆ , ๐๐&๐ ๐๐๐,๐ก๐ข๐ ๐ก , VCE Rating VCE Description High Flammable & Liquid & Boiling Point < 50 ยฐF Medium Flammable & Liquid & Operating Temp > Boiling Point Low Not flammable or Vapor or Liquid & Operating Temp < Boiling Point Release Quantity (tons) VCE Potential Min Max Low Medium High 20 9,999,999 $ - $ 5,000,000 $ 10,000,000 10 20 $ - $ 500,000 $ 5,000,000 1 10 $ - $ 50,000 $ 500,000 0 1 $ - $ 5,000 $ 50,000
- 22. Consequence associated with product releases resulting in contamination of soil, ground water and/or open water and air. ENVIRONMENTAL Environmental Consequences: โข Clean up of Environment โข Regulatory Citations and Fines
- 23. ENVIRONMENTAL CALCULATIONS ๐๐๐ง๐ฏ๐ข๐ซ $ = ๐๐ฎ๐ฆ ๐๐๐ง๐ฏ๐ข๐ซ ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ $ , ๐๐๐ง๐ฏ๐ข๐ซ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ข๐ฎ๐ฆ $ , ๐๐๐ง๐ฏ๐ข๐ซ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ข๐ฎ๐ฆ/๐ก๐ข๐ ๐ก $ , ๐๐๐ง๐ฏ๐ข๐ซ ๐ก๐ข๐ ๐ก $ Rating Description High Harmful and Toxic Medium/High Hydrocarbons Medium Harmful but not Toxic (Most Alkanes) Low Not Harmful to the Environment Release Quantity (tons) Environmental Impact Rating Min Max Low Medium Medium/High High 50 99,999,99 9 $ 50,000 $ 5,000,000 $ 5,000,000 $ 10,000,000 25 50 $ 5,000 $ 500,000 $ 5,000,000 $ 5,000,000 5 25 $ 5,000 $ 500,000 $ 500,000 $ 5,000,000 0.75 5 $ - $ 50,000 $ 500,000 $ 500,000 0.05 0.75 $ - $ 50,000 $ 50,000 $ 500,000 0 0.05 $ - $ 5,000 $ 50,000 $ 50,000
- 24. Economic Consequence is the result of business interruption. ECONOMIC Economic Consequences: โข Lost Production โข Repair Costs โข Downtime of Associated Units ๐๐๐๐จ๐ง ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐ $ = ๐๐๐ซ๐ ๐ข๐ง $ ๐๐๐ฒ โ ๐๐๐ % โ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฌ
- 25. QUESTIONS?
- 26. Critical Asset Information Value COF POF Critical Asset Information Value COF POF Semi-Quantitative Risk Based Inspection Workshop Risk = x Probability Consequence Material of Construction Process Operating Temp. Operating Press. Flow Velocity Damage Mode Date Installed Last Inspection Original Thickness Corrosion Rate Plant Rate Reduction Plant Margin Repair Time C.S. H2SO4 98% oF 80 90 psi 10 ft/s Gen. Thin. 02/2006 N/A 0.5 inches .007 in/yr 50% 0.5 MM/day 6 days What is the Risk? Secondary Containment Release Quantity No 10 bbl High, Medium, or Low
- 28. Critical Asset Information Value COF POF Critical Asset Information Value COF POF Risk = x COF Calculations POF Calculations = Factor 1 Category COF = x x = ( )( )( ) POF = x AR t = ( ) ( ) x ( ) POF = POF = 1 2 POF = x = POF = x = AR t = ( ) x ( ) ( ) = AR t = ( ) x ( ) ( ) = Scenario 1 (Date: ) Scenario 2 (Date: ) = Factor 2 Category = Factor 3 Category = Factor 4 Category Risk = 1 Risk = 2 Probability Consequence Material of Construction Process Operating Temp. Operating Press. Flow Velocity Damage Mode Date Installed Last Inspection Original Thickness Corrosion Rate Plant Rate Reduction Plant Margin Repair Time C.S. H2SO4 98% oF 80 90 psi 10 ft/s Gen. Thin. 02/2006 N/A 0.5 inches .007 in/yr 50% 0.5 MM/day 6 days Secondary Containment Release Quantity No 10 bbl 2.2 Inspection Level: DF: ( ) / ( ) Inspection Required By (Date) Inspection Effectiveness Risk = POF = 2.1 Inspection Level: DF: ( ) / ( ) Risk = POF = Semi-Quantitative Risk Based Inspection Workshop
- 29. Critical Asset Information Value COF POF Critical Asset Information Value COF POF Risk = x COF Calculations POF Calculations = Factor 1 Category COF = x x = ( )( )( ) POF = x AR t = ( ) ( ) x ( ) POF = POF = 1 2 POF = x = POF = x = AR t = ( ) x ( ) ( ) = AR t = ( ) x ( ) ( ) = Scenario 1 (Date: ) Scenario 2 (Date: ) = Factor 2 Category = Factor 3 Category = Factor 4 Category Risk = 1 Risk = 2 Probability Consequence Material of Construction Process Operating Temp. Operating Press. Flow Velocity Damage Mode Date Installed Last Inspection Original Thickness Corrosion Rate Plant Rate Reduction Plant Margin Repair Time C.S. H2SO4 98% oF 80 90 psi 10 ft/s Gen. Thin. 02/2006 N/A 0.5 inches .007 in/yr 50% 0.5 MM/day 6 days Health/Safety Environment Community Business B C B B $ .5MM 50% 6 Margin Reduction Rep. Time $1.5MM B Secondary Containment Release Quantity No 10 bbl 2.2 Inspection Level: DF: ( ) / ( ) Inspection Required By (Date) Inspection Effectiveness Risk = POF = 2.1 Inspection Level: DF: ( ) / ( ) Risk = POF = Semi-Quantitative Risk Based Inspection Workshop
- 31. Critical Asset Information Value COF POF Critical Asset Information Value COF POF Risk = x COF Calculations POF Calculations = Factor 1 Category COF = x x = ( )( )( ) POF = x AR t = ( ) ( ) x ( ) POF = POF = 1 2 POF = x = POF = x = AR t = ( ) x ( ) ( ) = AR t = ( ) x ( ) ( ) = Scenario 1 (Date: ) Scenario 2 (Date: ) = Factor 2 Category = Factor 3 Category = Factor 4 Category Risk = 1 Risk = 2 Probability Consequence Material of Construction Process Operating Temp. Operating Press. Flow Velocity Damage Mode Date Installed Last Inspection Original Thickness Corrosion Rate Plant Rate Reduction Plant Margin Repair Time C.S. H2SO4 98% oF 80 90 psi 10 ft/s Gen. Thin. 02/2006 N/A 0.5 inches .007 in/yr 50% 0.5 MM/day 6 days Health/Safety Environment Community Business B C C B $ .5MM 50% 6 Margin Reduction Rep. Time $1.5MM Damage Factor Inspection Credit Age Rate Org Thk 02/2014 8 .007 .5 3.06x10-5 0.0001836 2 B2 B 0.112 6/1 Secondary Containment Release Quantity No 10 bbl 2.2 Inspection Level: DF: ( ) / ( ) Inspection Required By (Date) Inspection Effectiveness Risk = POF = 2.1 Inspection Level: DF: ( ) / ( ) Risk = POF = Generic Failure Frequency Semi-Quantitative Risk Based Inspection Workshop
- 33. Critical Asset Information Value COF POF Critical Asset Information Value COF POF Risk = x COF Calculations POF Calculations = Factor 1 Category COF = x x = ( )( )( ) POF = x AR t = ( ) ( ) x ( ) POF = POF = 1 2 POF = x = POF = x = AR t = ( ) x ( ) ( ) = AR t = ( ) x ( ) ( ) = Scenario 1 (Date: ) Scenario 2 (Date: ) = Factor 2 Category = Factor 3 Category = Factor 4 Category Risk = 1 Risk = 2 Probability Consequence Material of Construction Process Operating Temp. Operating Press. Flow Velocity Damage Mode Date Installed Last Inspection Original Thickness Corrosion Rate Plant Rate Reduction Plant Margin Repair Time C.S. H2SO4 98% oF 80 90 psi 10 ft/s Gen. Thin. 02/2006 N/A 0.5 inches .007 in/yr 50% 0.5 MM/day 6 days Health/Safety Environment Community Business B C C B $ .5MM 50% 6 Margin Reduction Rep. Time $1.5MM Damage Factor Generic Failure Frequency Inspection Credit Age Rate Org Thk 02/2014 02/2020 8 .007 .5 3.06x10-5 0.0001836 2 B2 14 .007 0.5 0.196 400/1 3.06x10-5 0.01224 4 B4 B 0.112 6/1 Secondary Containment Release Quantity No 10 bbl 2.2 Inspection Level: DF: ( ) / ( ) Inspection Required By (Date) Inspection Effectiveness Risk = POF = 2.1 Inspection Level: DF: ( ) / ( ) Risk = POF = Semi-Quantitative Risk Based Inspection Workshop
- 35. Inspection Category Inspection Effectiveness Category Intrusive Inspection Non-Intrusive Inspection A Highly Effective >50% visual examination of the surface area (internals removed as required) with follow- up by UT, RT or pit gauge as required Record spot UT measurements at likely location(s) with min of 1 CML per fitting1/section2 B Usually Effective >20% visual examination of the surface area (internals removed as required) with follow- up by UT, RT or pit gauge as required Record spot UT measurements at likely location(s) with min of 0.5 CML per fitting1/section2 C Fairly Effective <20% visual examination of the surface area (internals removed as required) with follow- up by UT, RT or pit gauge as required Record spot UT measurements at likely location(s) with min of 0.25 CML per fitting1/section2 No Credit Ineffective Less than โCโ effectiveness, no inspection or ineffective inspection technique used Less than โCโ effectiveness, no inspection or ineffective inspection technique used ADDING INSPECTION CREDIT
- 36. Critical Asset Information Value COF POF Critical Asset Information Value COF POF Risk = x COF Calculations POF Calculations = Factor 1 Category COF = x x = ( )( )( ) POF = x AR t = ( ) ( ) x ( ) POF = POF = 1 2 POF = x = POF = x = AR t = ( ) x ( ) ( ) = AR t = ( ) x ( ) ( ) = Scenario 1 (Date: ) Scenario 2 (Date: ) = Factor 2 Category = Factor 3 Category = Factor 4 Category Risk = 1 Risk = 2 Probability Consequence Material of Construction Process Operating Temp. Operating Press. Flow Velocity Damage Mode Date Installed Last Inspection Original Thickness Corrosion Rate Plant Rate Reduction Plant Margin Repair Time C.S. H2SO4 98% oF 80 90 psi 10 ft/s Gen. Thin. 02/2006 N/A 0.5 inches .007 in/yr 50% 0.5 MM/day 6 days Health/Safety Environment Community Business B C C B $ .5MM 50% 6 Margin Reduction Rep. Time $1.5MM Damage Factor Generic Failure Frequency Inspection Credit Age Rate Org Thk 02/2014 02/2020 8 .007 .5 3.06x10-5 0.0001836 2 B2 14 .007 0.5 0.196 400/1 3.06x10-5 0.01224 4 B4 B 0.112 6/1 Secondary Containment Release Quantity No 10 bbl 2.2 Inspection Level: DF: ( ) / ( ) Inspection Required By (Date) Inspection Effectiveness Risk = POF = 2.1 Inspection Level: DF: ( ) / ( ) Risk = POF = B3 3 C 400 10 Semi-Quantitative Risk Based Inspection Workshop
- 38. Critical Asset Information Value COF POF Critical Asset Information Value COF POF Risk = x COF Calculations POF Calculations = Factor 1 Category COF = x x = ( )( )( ) POF = x AR t = ( ) ( ) x ( ) POF = POF = 1 2 POF = x = POF = x = AR t = ( ) x ( ) ( ) = AR t = ( ) x ( ) ( ) = Scenario 1 (Date: ) Scenario 2 (Date: ) = Factor 2 Category = Factor 3 Category = Factor 4 Category Risk = 1 Risk = 2 Probability Consequence Material of Construction Process Operating Temp. Operating Press. Flow Velocity Damage Mode Date Installed Last Inspection Original Thickness Corrosion Rate Plant Rate Reduction Plant Margin Repair Time C.S. H2SO4 98% oF 80 90 psi 10 ft/s Gen. Thin. 02/2006 N/A 0.5 inches .007 in/yr 50% 0.5 MM/day 6 days Health/Safety Environment Community Business B C C B $ .5MM 50% 6 Margin Reduction Rep. Time $1.5MM Damage Factor Generic Failure Frequency Inspection Credit Age Rate Org Thk 02/2014 02/2020 8 .007 .5 3.06x10-5 0.0001836 2 B2 14 .007 0.5 0.196 400/1 3.06x10-5 0.01224 4 B4 B 0.112 6/1 Secondary Containment Release Quantity No 10 bbl Inspection Required By (Date) Inspection Effectiveness 2.1 Inspection Level: DF: ( ) / ( ) Risk = POF = 2.2 Inspection Level: DF: ( ) / ( ) Risk = POF = B3 3 C 400 10 B2 2 B 400 100 Semi-Quantitative Risk Based Inspection Workshop
- 40. Critical Asset Information Value COF POF Critical Asset Information Value COF POF Risk = x COF Calculations POF Calculations = Factor 1 Category COF = x x = ( )( )( ) POF = x AR t = ( ) ( ) x ( ) POF = POF = 1 2 POF = x = POF = x = AR t = ( ) x ( ) ( ) = AR t = ( ) x ( ) ( ) = Scenario 1 (Date: ) Scenario 2 (Date: ) = Factor 2 Category = Factor 3 Category = Factor 4 Category Risk = 1 Risk = 2 Probability Consequence Material of Construction Process Operating Temp. Operating Press. Flow Velocity Damage Mode Date Installed Last Inspection Original Thickness Corrosion Rate Plant Rate Reduction Plant Margin Repair Time C.S. H2SO4 98% oF 80 90 psi 10 ft/s Gen. Thin. 02/2006 N/A 0.5 inches .007 in/yr 50% 0.5 MM/day 6 days Health/Safety Environment Community Business B C C B $ .5MM 50% 6 Margin Reduction Rep. Time $1.5MM Damage Factor Generic Failure Frequency Inspection Credit Age Rate Org Thk 02/2014 02/2020 8 .007 .5 3.06x10-5 0.0001836 2 B2 14 .007 0.5 0.196 400/1 3.06x10-5 0.01224 4 B4 B 02/2020 B 0.112 6/1 Secondary Containment Release Quantity No 10 bbl Inspection Required By (Date) Inspection Effectiveness 2.1 Inspection Level: DF: ( ) / ( ) Risk = POF = 2.2 Inspection Level: DF: ( ) / ( ) POF = B3 3 400 10 B2 2 400 100 Risk = B Semi-Quantitative Risk Based Inspection Workshop
- 41. Calculate Risk & Inspection Due Date Inspection Plan Update PCMS PROGRAM MAINTANENCE Management of Change Loss of Containment Process Hazard Analysis Risk Based Inspection Training
- 42. QUESTIONS?
Editor's Notes
- Who here is familiar with RBI? This presentation=Recap+Extra
- For many years we have followed the industry standard of assessing based on fixed interval- does this make sense? Using API 580 and 581 codes and decades of industry data we have developed a quantifiable approach and a scientific method that makes sense. Let me give you an example: Your maintenance manual tells you to change your oil every 5000 km or so. Now (Josh) here is a daredevil and subjects his car to rough terrain and every weekend. (Brian) on the other hand cradles his car to sleep- rarely drives it and maintains it to a T. Do you think both cars should have their oil changed at the same interval? This is where RBI comes in. Next Slide.
- Risk=COF*POF Risk takes into account the situational differences we were talking about earlier. Letโs get back to our car example here. X drives his car at a 150 mph in rainy conditions; Y drives his car at 80kmh on a sunny day. Probability: Who is more likely to get in an accident? Consequence: Both get in an accident- which accident has worse repercussions? This training will help you discern between what factors affect your consequence and probability and how to lower the risk associated with these.
- Before we address RBI, it is important to distinguish between Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis. Qualitative Analysis is performed on structural assets resulting in a fixed interval that is obtained through site knowledge and overall results are uploaded into PCMS. Quantitative Analysis on the other hand is heavily dependent on data and calculations. It is performed on quantifiable process assets and the calculations are performed and results generated in PCMS. In our RBI presentation we will primarily be focusing on Quantitative Risk.
- As stated before, Risk always equals Consequence times Likelihood To drive this point home here is the Mosaic Corporate Risk Matrix. One can see how the combination of consequence and likelihood is used to obtain a risk rank. One more thing to point out here is are the blue lines. These are our โrisk thresholdsโ. Beyond this point our asset is past due for inspection.
- Risk drivers are things that have a significant impact on your probability or consequence such that it affects your risk. A few drivers are mentioned here (discuss these). We will discuss them in further in our exercise later.
- Letโs talk a little about Probability. API 580 defines it asโฆ..(definition above) Where an event isโฆ(next slide)
- As described by API 580โฆ(definition above) For our purposes, an event can be described as a loss of containment due to a failure How does this failure occur? Due to damage mechanisms(next slide for DM).
- The codes describe a Damage Mechanism as (definition above). General and Local Damage types are only for thinning mechanisms.
- During our corrosion study we will identify DMs that you see at Faustina. These DMs will be used to calculate the probability portion of risk using the following calculation. What do we mean by each susceptible mechanism? Different Damage Factor calculations exist for different types of Damage Mechanisms. API 581 Part 2 deals with all of these and all these calculations are accounted for in PCMS. PCMS performs probability calculations for each Damage Mechanism and uses the worst case for the overall risk calculation.
- API 581 defines Gff asโฆ(definition above) Gff: Industrial data collected over years Probability of failure based on asset type- how many tanks/vessels/heat exchangers failed in a year over several decades. Remember Gff does not account for specific damage mechanisms. This is where Damage Factor comes in (next slide)
- API 581 defines DF as..(definition above) While API 581 part 2 addresses DF for several different Damage Mechanisms we will only discuss thinning mechanisms for the sake of brevity in this training. AR/T is the calculation of % wall loss. AT/T translated to damage factor. Age: Measure of time wrt corrosion rate used; Current age of asset Rate: Either modeled or calculated from TMLs. Mosaic uses CAR=Total Circuit Loss/Total Circuit Years Thickness: Suggested Thickness- CA+Tmin from manufacturerโs drawings= original thickness- API 581 Part 2, 5.5.3 How can we reduce the inevitable effect that DF has on our probability? By performing effective inspections!- next slide.
- While damage factor increases your probability, inspection effectiveness gives you credit for performing inspections and reducing uncertainty. (Inspection Effectiveness helps mitigate the negative effects of Damage Factor). It is a simple divisor that reduces risk. An ineffective inspection would result in a divisor of 1, resulting in no mitigation of risk. How do I know what grade my inspection receives? (Next slide)
- Mosaic MI documents has inspection effectiveness tables for all DMs
- According to API 580 Consequence is..(described above). Recap โeventโ
- For our purposes we will be using the worst Consequence/highest value
- Flammable Event: Occurs when both a leak and ignition occur through an ignition or auto ignition source. Flash fire, Pool fire. Toxic Event: Can cause effects at greater distances and do not require another event such as ignition. Acute toxic risks with immediate danger to personnel. VCE: Combustion of a sudden release of a large flammable vapour cloud.
- First determine the flammability rating based on table 1 Determine Release Quantity for each flammable constituent, low, medium & high from table 2 Sum up the dollar amount. All calculations performed by PCMS
- First determine the toxicity rating based on table 1 Determine Release Quantity for each toxic constituent from table 2 Sum up the dollar amount. All calculations performed by PCMS
- First determine the VCE rating based on table 1 Determine Release Quantity for each vapor cloud constituent constituent from table 2 Sum up the dollar amount. All calculations performed by PCMS
- First determine the Environmental Impact rating based on table 1 Determine Release Quantity for each constituent from table 2 Sum up the dollar amount. All calculations performed by PCMS
- Lost production=Margin($/day)*Reduced Repair Rate(%)*Estimated Repair Time(days) (calculated by PCMS) Repair Cost: Replacement/Repair of Damages Assets. Manually entered into PCMS Downtime: Manually entered into PCMS
- Any questions regarding RBI Theory? No- Great! Letโs move on to a problem that uses all the principles above!
- Reiterate Risk=POF*COF Ask someone in the room to volunteer to stand next to this vessel for $1MM. Ask them what they need to know to stand next to itโฆ they should say material, operating temp etc. Show them all the asset information Ask the room what they think the risk of this asset it- Low, Medium or High? People should hopefully give you a wide array of answersโฆ take this opportunity to jump into the risk matric (next slide)
- Why do we have a corporate risk matrix? For uniformity and standardization. Introduce the risk matrix. Blue lines= risk threshold. If risk threshold is crossed asset is overdue for inspection!
- Ask the audience if anyone knows which factors affect COF vs. POF
- Why is IC=1? Because no inspection.