Ecological and Carboon Footprints Wales Dec 2013


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This presentation was given to the CCCW in Dec 2013 and presents a revised Ecological Footprint for Wales

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Ecological and Carboon Footprints Wales Dec 2013

  1. 1. Ecological and Carbon Footprints for Wales 2011 Elena Dawkins
  2. 2. Overview • Project summary • Introduction to Consumption Perspective for Environmental Accounting (Footprints) • Results – Welsh Ecological and Carbon Footprints 2011 • Method • Recommendations
  3. 3. Stockholm Environment Institute • International non-profit research institute, HQ is in Stockholm • Our goal is to bring about change for sustainable development by bridging science and policy •
  4. 4. Footprint Update Project • Aim – to update the Ecological and Carbon Footprint results for Wales to the latest year available (2011) • Project work to date – June 2013 Review of methodologies completed – July – Nov 2013 UK domestic data preparation – Nov 2013 • Import data preparation • Environmental extensions • Impact calculation and downscaling to Wales
  5. 5. Introduction to Consumption-Based Accounting (Footprints) • Estimating the environmental impacts of consumption, regardless of where production occurs • Estimating impacts along full supply chains, re-allocating from the point of production to the final consumer
  6. 6. Introduction to Consumption-Based Accounting (Footprints) • The term footprint usually means a consumption based measure • The term is used in different contexts for different purposes, there is no standard or agreed definition • We consider the footprint of consumption by people • It can be measured in terms of the land area required to deliver goods and services for consumption (ecological footprint) or the emissions emitted along the supply chains of goods or services (carbon or GHG footprint).
  7. 7. Introduction to Consumption-Based Accounting (Footprints)
  8. 8. Preliminary Wales 2011 Footprint Results • Carbon (GHG) Footprint – 11.1 tonnes CO2e per person • Ecological Footprint – 3.28 gha per person (2.5 planets) Wales total EF by consumption theme Wales total EF by land type
  9. 9. Ecological Footprint Isle of Anglesey Conwy Flintshire Denbighshire gha per capita More sustainable Wrexham 3.0 Gwynedd 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 Less sustainable Powys 3.5 3.6 Pembrokeshire Ceredigion Carmarthenshire Swansea Monmouthshir Merthyr Blaenaue Neath & Tydfil Gwent Torfaen Port Rhondd Caerphill Talbot a Cynon y Newport Bridgen Taff Cardiff Vale of d Glamorga
  10. 10. Carbon (GHG) Footprint Isle of Anglesey Conwy Flintshire Denbighshire t CO2e per capita 10.3 Wrexham Gwynedd More sustainable 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.5 11.8 Less sustainable 12.1 Pembrokeshire Powys Ceredigion Carmarthenshire Swansea Monmouthshir Merthyr Blaenaue Neath & Tydfil Gwent Torfae Port Rhondd Caerphill n Talbot a Cynon y Newport Bridgen Taff Cardiff Vale of d Glamorga n
  11. 11. Latest Detailed Breakdowns Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose
  12. 12. Method • Understanding modelling assumptions for data analysis, interpretation and recommendations • Environmentally extended input output analysis – common method for calculating indirect (supply chain) impacts of consumption
  13. 13. Environmental Accounts Key (in alphabetical order) CDIAC: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center GFN: Global Footprint Network HH: Household LA: Local Authority MOSAIC: Local expenditure profiles by Experian NAEI: UK National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory ONS: Office for National Statistics ROW: Rest of World UK: United Kingdom WIOD: World Input Output Database REAP model data flow (simplified) UK: ONS NAEI GFN Rest of World: CDIAC (GHGs) WIOD (GHGs) GFN Input-Output (economic) data UK: Final Demand (WUK Supply and Use Tables Total Output Direct Household Impacts Direct sectoral intensity Total sectoral x intensity Final Demand = for Wales Total Impacts Indirect Impacts Leontief Inverse* ROW: WIOD Total Impacts (per person and by LA) Demographic data Population, Households LA, MOSAIC Stage 1 Data Preparation Stage 2 Environmentally Extended Input-Output Analysis (calculation stage) Stage 3 Downscaling
  14. 14. Indirect Impacts Using Economic Input-Output Table Input: requirements of industry, purchasers view Value Added Industry sectors Output: sellers view, product s that are sold to other industries Agri Mining Const Manuf Trade Transport Services Other Employees Business owners and capital Government Industrial sectors Final Demand Government expenditures Personal Private (purchases of Net Exports consumption domestic goods and of goods and services Agri Mining Const Manuf Trade Transport Services Other expenditures investment services) Labour costs (employee wages) Profits, capital consumption allocances Indirect business taxes Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
  15. 15. Basic Environmentally Extended Input Output Method Breakdown of FD into 40 household consumption categories. Industries 1 n Intermediate flows between industries (n x n) Products 1 ... ... 1 ... Final demand categories (n x l) l Total output Government Households Capital Investment Exports n 1 Value added (k x n) k Total input E.g. Kt of CO2 from that industry. Emissions intensity = Kt CO2 per unit of input Environmental Extension (r) Legend •n – no. of industries •k – no. of value added categories •l – no. of final demand categories •r – no. of carbon emissions Product A impact Product B impact Product C impact
  16. 16. Data behind the models Multi-regional models – UK and the supply chains of imports from the rest of the world The model combines the following data: Models of the economy: • Supply and Use Tables, Input-Output tables from the Office of National Statistics • Global trade models (e.g. WIOD) Country specific environmental data: • Import emissions from WIOD tables • National energy use/emissions databases (e.g. UK Environmental Accounts) Regional Expenditure: • MOSAIC, small area household expenditure profiles • Household expenditure surveys
  17. 17. Assumptions for Wales • No input-output (IO) data available for Wales for recent year • Data for construction of IO data available for UK (supply and use of products by industries) • Imports supplied as a single column (don’t know where they end up) – global multi-regional IO table used to allocate imports to industries – Gives 2 region, UK and ROW IO table • Environmental extension data – Emissions by sector from UK environmental accounts – Emissions from ROW – Global ecological footprint data from Global Footprint Network • Consumption data – Welsh consumption data are combined with estimates of the impacts of products supplied produced in the economy, taking into account international imports – Welsh consumption data from Household Expenditure Survey – Government expenditure data from accounts/budget data – Investment expenditure downscaled from UK
  18. 18. Delivering footprint reductions Industries 1 1 ... n 1 Intermediate flows between industries (n x n) Exports UK to ROW Products Alter the supply... chains of industry (purchase different products) Imports from ROW n 1 k ROW for ROW Overall – if increases in consumption outweigh Value added (k x n) efficiency improvements then footprints will continue to rise Total input Indirect (supply chain impacts) Direct Impacts Environmental Extension (r) Household emissions or land use emitted at the point of use (e.g. private vehicles, burning fuel in homes) ... l Final demand categories (n x l) Government Households Capital Investment Exports Total output Change or reduce final demand expenditure on domestic and imported goods Reduce emissions/land use by industry in other countries (along supply chains) Reduce emissions/land use by industry domestically (e.g. electricity sector, gov sector e.g. education included here) Reduce household emissions/land use from homes and vehicles
  19. 19. Possible Future Trends Consumption, rising? Energy intensity, mixed?
  20. 20. Recommendations • Data – Data in IO table is UK. Welsh Input-Output Table with Welsh Environmental Extension Data? – Improved Welsh consumption data – Increased Welsh economic and industry data – Historical time series? – Regular model updates – UK data improvements – Local level travel data similar to energy data • Reductions – Policy assessment and monitoring – Scenarios and trajectories – Sectoral analysis and pathways (e.g. NHS Wales Carbon Monitor)
  21. 21. Reductions trajectory 100% Steeper reductions in later years. Ecological footprint 80% 60% 40% Steeper reductions in early years. 20% 2011 2020 2030 2040 2050
  22. 22. Recommendations • Report re-emphasises the scale of challenge to achieve one planet living, • Policies - Continue efforts to review, promote and refine existing policies and develop new ones. • Where - Domestic emission reductions and demand management. Influence the international supply chain? • When - Early years reductions, quick wins to increase probability of achieving the one planet living goal within a generation. • Increased effort required to accelerate the process of decoupling carbon emissions and ecological footprint from economic growth. – Policy examples renewable energy, smart technology and (coupled with grid decarbonisation) change in transport provision, demand management and demand reductions
  23. 23. Thank you! Any questions? Final Report and Full Methodology Submitted 13th December, published early new year
  24. 24. World toy exports Responsibility: the people who make the goods? Territory size shows the proportion of worldwide net exports of toys (in US$) that come from there. Net exports are exports minus imports. When imports are larger than exports the territory is not shown.
  25. 25. World toy imports Responsibility: the people who consume the goods?