“There are no rules here, we’re trying to accomplish something.” — Thomas A. Edison (1847 - 1931).
How did Edison know?
Sometimes we get lucky. I’ve had a boatload of lucky times. They were fleeting, but nuggets of wisdom and information were there. It’s up to us to separate fool’s gold from the precious metal, and real facts from smoke.
A most vivid memory goes back to the early 1970s. The giant was Milton Friedman — shortly after he won the Nobel in economics. It was just after U.S. citizens could legally own gold again. At a private reception, after Friedman spoke to several hundred, someone asked him about gold. The metal had made a large run and was trading at about $200 an ounce.
Dave kamm when investing, gold standard is a good rule to keep in mind tana goldfields united kingdom
1. Dave Kamm: When investing, gold
standard is a good rule to keep in
mind - Tana Goldfields United
Kingdom
2. “There are no rules here, we’re trying to accomplish something.” — Thomas A.
Edison (1847 - 1931).
How did Edison know?
Sometimes we get lucky. I’ve had a boatload of lucky times. They were fleeting,
but nuggets of wisdom and information were there. It’s up to us to separate
fool’s gold from the precious metal, and real facts from smoke.
A most vivid memory goes back to the early 1970s. The giant was Milton
Friedman — shortly after he won the Nobel in economics. It was just after U.S.
citizens could legally own gold again. At a private reception, after Friedman
spoke to several hundred, someone asked him about gold. The metal had
made a large run and was trading at about $200 an ounce.
Friedman said that he did not follow gold, but had made a few estimates based
upon inflation, and he thought $110 an ounce was a proper level for that time.
A few months later gold fell to $104. Wow. He did not claim expertise, but
nailed it. Isn’t humility from a Nobel winner neat to see in action?
3. When gold hit $800 an ounce in 1980 (just seven to eight years
later), thanks to Friedman, I knew it was too high. I did not sell my silver
coins, but did sell my gold stocks. We must each ask ourselves;
“What’s our blind spot?”
How does the Friedman $110 an ounce translate to today — some 40
years later? Using an inflation rate of about 6 to 7 percent and
compounding annually, my slide rule says a $1,350 and $1,650 an
ounce ballpark is about right.
Now we endure chaff aplenty — white noise about an improving
economy if you will. Try to tune them out and look for a few facts.
4. Some I’ve noticed recently are:
• Within my normal driving territory, five restaurants have closed their
doors.
• Germany, the world’s No. 2 exporter (after China), is shipping more
goods than last year.
• In May, container traffic at the port of Los Angeles was down double
digits from 2012.
Random inputs do not define an investment strategy, but may help
avoid holding a fully valued sector or one still heading nowhere.
Dave Kamm is an Investment Adviser Representative with Raymond
James & Associates Inc.
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investing-gold-standard-is