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A Hybrid Framework for a Hybrid World    A Wider Security Agenda and Next Generation    Partnerships to Achieve Higher Pur...
Want to learn about the world!?
…discipline…and many choices…
…cost lots of money…
…”think twice before you say nothing…”
There is a better way!
What can Bond teach us about the world?           Old movies              Spectre     Strength is dangerous Superpowers, ...
What can Bond teach us about the world?       Silver                Newer movies                        Weakness is danger...
Managing Across Boundaries
150 years of globalization:lessons learned… and NOT yet learned
What defines danger today?Strength?          Weakness?
Managing global challenges:a hybrid framework for a hybrid world
150 years of globalization:Lessons learned from the first era of globalization (1870-1914)
A world on fire (1914-1945)World War I and II   Great Depression
How does the world respond?Bretton Woods      Dumbarton
Fresh political and security structures
150 years of globalizationLessons learned from the second era of globalization (1945-1980)    How did we do?   - Total FD...
What else contributed to relative stability?    Nuclear deterrence        Alliances
150 years of globalization:    lessons learned from G1 and G2 G1: Economic integration and technological  innovation with...
Globalization 3 (1980  ?)
The undercurrents of globalization
Defense/Security/Development Nexus:          Drug Trafficking
Weakness, not strength, defines danger
How NOT to respond to modern threats In siloes                           Does not fall neatly into                      ...
The world is hybrid: we need a hybrid power framework
What does this mean in reality?
What type of expanded partnerships?
Is it Possible? It is already happening!
If we do nothing?No hostile take-over of major city   Spoil the fruits of globalization
Think innovatively…the bad guys are!                  21st century business                   model v. 20th century      ...
Thank You!“Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committedcitizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only th...
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Hybrid framework for a hybrid world

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Hybrid framework for a hybrid world

  1. 1. A Hybrid Framework for a Hybrid World A Wider Security Agenda and Next Generation Partnerships to Achieve Higher Purpose Goals Johan Bergenäs Deputy Director Managing Across Boundaries Stimson Center jbergenas@stimson.org +1 202-478-3443
  2. 2. Want to learn about the world!?
  3. 3. …discipline…and many choices…
  4. 4. …cost lots of money…
  5. 5. …”think twice before you say nothing…”
  6. 6. There is a better way!
  7. 7. What can Bond teach us about the world? Old movies Spectre Strength is dangerous Superpowers, great powers and risk of war Nuclear armageddon One centrally well-organized illicit network with plenty of resources
  8. 8. What can Bond teach us about the world? Silver Newer movies Weakness is dangerous  Weak and failing states  Opaque transnational threats becoming a cancer on our globalized world  Many smaller powerful non- state actors are powerful in an interconnected world
  9. 9. Managing Across Boundaries
  10. 10. 150 years of globalization:lessons learned… and NOT yet learned
  11. 11. What defines danger today?Strength? Weakness?
  12. 12. Managing global challenges:a hybrid framework for a hybrid world
  13. 13. 150 years of globalization:Lessons learned from the first era of globalization (1870-1914)
  14. 14. A world on fire (1914-1945)World War I and II Great Depression
  15. 15. How does the world respond?Bretton Woods Dumbarton
  16. 16. Fresh political and security structures
  17. 17. 150 years of globalizationLessons learned from the second era of globalization (1945-1980)  How did we do? - Total FDI increased from $60 billion to $500 billion worldwide between 1960 and 1980 - Global merchandise exports rose 8% per year from 1950-1973 - Global trade outperfom first era of globalization - The end of Europe’s civil war - The absence of superpower war - No nuclear weapon use
  18. 18. What else contributed to relative stability? Nuclear deterrence Alliances
  19. 19. 150 years of globalization: lessons learned from G1 and G2 G1: Economic integration and technological innovation without appropriate political and security structures is bad G2: Economic integration and technological innovation with appropriate political and security structures is great Is this how we approach Globalization 3?
  20. 20. Globalization 3 (1980  ?)
  21. 21. The undercurrents of globalization
  22. 22. Defense/Security/Development Nexus: Drug Trafficking
  23. 23. Weakness, not strength, defines danger
  24. 24. How NOT to respond to modern threats In siloes  Does not fall neatly into defense, security and development portfolios  Mayors of the world’s With narrow set of stakeholders largest cities, multinational corporations, communities at troubled border areas, civil society groups, private citizens all have stake  Nexus where wise public With focus on public policy only policy and profit meet is a force multiplier
  25. 25. The world is hybrid: we need a hybrid power framework
  26. 26. What does this mean in reality?
  27. 27. What type of expanded partnerships?
  28. 28. Is it Possible? It is already happening!
  29. 29. If we do nothing?No hostile take-over of major city Spoil the fruits of globalization
  30. 30. Think innovatively…the bad guys are!  21st century business model v. 20th century political and security structures  We are virtually seated at our Bretton Woods and Dumbarton - Who needs to be a part at the decision-making table? - How do we get them there?
  31. 31. Thank You!“Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committedcitizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has.” ~ Margaret Mead

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