Thesis and Summary Statement: Lebanon Thesis: The current Republic government in Lebanon shows lack of any hope for the country to up rise as a liberal democracy because of conflicts with neighboring Syria spilling into Lebanon’s government and the current fragile political institutions. Summary: With a horrible war going on in Syria, refugees have made their way into Lebanon. Lebanon has gotten caught in the crossfire of their conflicts. Lebanon is warned that they are rapidly being drawn in to the Syrian civil war. Leaders give no encouragement to citizens, they warn that the worst is yet to come. The problem has been made worse by Hezbollah’s military intervention in Syria, where the party’s fighters are battling alongside President Bashar Assad’s army to defeat rebel groups seeking to overthrow the regime. Because of this spillover, Lebanon has witnessed a serious escalation of sectarian and political tensions and a deterioration of the security situation. The country is looking at economic detieration because of lack of efficient security. The resignation of Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s Cabinet has thrown the political institution into a cabinet deadlock. Also, fear of terrorism has already taken place, being that there has been car bombings and a suicide attack against the Lebanese army. With that there has been a rise of Al-Qaeda-affiliated “takfiri” factions. Overall, with a weak and unstable government and security, Lebanons control of the Syria conflict does not show efficient democracy. ACCOUNTING 211 FALL 2014 SEMESTER Questions for Twitter Article The attached article appeared in a recent edition of the New York Times. Please answer the following questions: 1. What is this company Twitter? Trace its’ history from inception up to its initial public offering in November 2013. 2. Indicate how the company is organized, its officers and its revenue sources. 3. Which companies compete with Twitter? How does it compare in size to them? 4. What issues is Twitter facing regarding future growth, privacy and competition? 5. What has been its stock high and low range and what is it currently trading at? 6. Do you use Twitter? If so, for what purposes? You may use any outside sources to bring depth to your answer as long as you reference your sources. NOTES September 9, 2014 This Class: The nature, explanations and consequences of the various ways in which societies determine who has the power to make collective decisions This requires a method… · Political science · Shared standards and tools from hard sciences 1) Empirical, not normative (the way things should be) · Definitions – describing the world as we see it · Empirical statements help us.. · Describe phenomena accurately · Explain and generalize 2) Clearly defined concepts · Ideas we use to think about the processes we study · Good conceptrs are: · Clear, consistent and useful for measuring in the real world · Example: “Democr ...

1. Thesis and Summary Statement: Lebanon
Thesis:
The current Republic government in Lebanon shows lack of any
hope for the country to up rise as a liberal democracy because
of conflicts with neighboring Syria spilling into Lebanon’s
government and the current fragile political institutions.
Summary:
With a horrible war going on in Syria, refugees have made their
way into Lebanon. Lebanon has gotten caught in the crossfire of
their conflicts. Lebanon is warned that they are rapidly being
drawn in to the Syrian civil war. Leaders give no
encouragement to citizens, they warn that the worst is yet to
come. The problem has been made worse by Hezbollah’s
military intervention in Syria, where the party’s fighters are
battling alongside President Bashar Assad’s army to defeat
rebel groups seeking to overthrow the regime. Because of this
spillover, Lebanon has witnessed a serious escalation of
sectarian and political tensions and a deterioration of the
security situation. The country is looking at economic
detieration because of lack of efficient security. The resignation
of Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s Cabinet has thrown the
political institution into a cabinet deadlock. Also, fear of
terrorism has already taken place, being that there has been car
bombings and a suicide attack against the Lebanese army. With
that there has been a rise of Al-Qaeda-affiliated “takfiri”
factions.

2. Overall, with a weak and unstable government and security,
Lebanons control of the Syria conflict does not show efficient
democracy.
ACCOUNTING 211
FALL 2014 SEMESTER
Questions for Twitter Article
The attached article appeared in a recent edition of the New
York Times.
Please answer the following questions:
1. What is this company Twitter? Trace its’ history from
inception up to its initial public offering in November 2013.
2. Indicate how the company is organized, its officers and its
revenue sources.
3. Which companies compete with Twitter? How does it
compare in size to them?
4. What issues is Twitter facing regarding future growth,
privacy and competition?
5. What has been its stock high and low range and what is it
currently trading at?
6. Do you use Twitter? If so, for what purposes?
You may use any outside sources to bring depth to your answer
as long as you reference your sources.

3. NOTES
September 9, 2014
This Class: The nature, explanations and consequences of the
various ways in which societies determine who has the power to
make collective decisions
This requires a method…
· Political science
· Shared standards and tools from hard sciences
1) Empirical, not normative (the way things should be)
· Definitions – describing the world as we see it
· Empirical statements help us..
· Describe phenomena accurately
· Explain and generalize
2) Clearly defined concepts
· Ideas we use to think about the processes we study
· Good conceptrs are:
· Clear, consistent and useful for measuring in the real world
· Example: “Democratization”
· “the process of improving the human condition”
· “process by which rights and liberties are extended to all
adults”
· Good concepts lend themselves to operationalization
· How would we measure “the extension of rights and
liberties”?
· These become variables
3) Theories to answer “how” and “why” questions
· General explanations for empirical phenomena

4. · Based on supportive evidence
· Polis ci (an all social sciences?) have may theories, but very
few laws
· Deterministic vs. probabilistic laws
4) Hypotheses to test evaluate our theories
· Definition
· Inductive and deductive hypothesis formation – general
observation to then lead to a very specific prediction
· Must be falsifiable – hypothesis has to have a chance that it is
incorrect
· Relate Independent variables to dependent variable
5) Using evidence to compare
· Facts that have implications for a theory or hypothesis
· Must be used in systematic ways to test hypothesis
· Evidence is compared across Cases ( a unit of analysis I
comparative politics)
· Often a country, but could be a time period, or set of events,
etc/
· Various ways to do this
· All seek to explain outcomes
· Control for rival theories or explanations
The Comparative Method: Most Similar Systems (MSS) design
· Compare cases with similar factors , but different outcomes of
interest
· Logic is that analyst can rule out (or control for) many
possible variables that are similar
The Comparative Method: Major Social Revolutions
· Different factors but similar outcomes
6) Assessing “casual” relationships
· Important but difficult
· X causes Y?

5. · Distinction between correlation and casuation
· Correlation- two variables move in predictable relationships to
one another
· Causation- changes in one variable cause the changes in the
other
A cause relationship-
Author says genes drive both
Probably not ‘casusal’
· Maybe more attractive bike races become leaders
· Maybe those with an already greater probability of reckless
behavior are attracted to cheap alcohol
· Maybe healthier people work/earn more and also have more
sex
· Each objection illustrates a potential “threatto causality”
Threats to “causality’
X=y
· Definitional problems
· X and y will correlate if they are the same thing
· “military overthrows f elected presidents cause a country to
become non-democratic”
· circular, or tautological arguments
· REVERSE CAUSATION
· Y causes x, instead of x causing y
· “spending more money on congressional campains causes
candidates to lose”
· Related: endogeneity
· Relationship goes both ways
· Intervening Process
· X leads to y, but only indirectly (through Z)
· More missionaries -> more democracy
· Missionaries -> literacy, education
· Literacy, education-> democracy
· Ommitted variable Problem

6. · X correlates with Y, but only because both are caused by
another variable Z
· Quite common in policitical science
· Why would this be?
Spurious Correlations
· Those without some other explanation
· Just random coincidence
7) Even still, we might have more than 1 “cause”
· Necessary and Sufficient criteria
· Necessary: if X is necessary for Y, Y can not exist without x
· I observe every time lions play at home they lose
· Could be 2 different scenarios:
· Playing at home may be necessary for losing?
· Plaing at home may be sufficient for losing?
· What happens on the reoad in each situations

7. Building Blocks of Comparative Politics
States
· “States” mean something very different for comparative
political scientists
· centralized authority- governing body of people that are in
charge of govering within a given territory
· monopoly of legal violence over a given territory (Max
Weber)
· states are cohorsive
· Sovereignty
· Ability to carry out actions independently
· Establish order
· States as mobsters?
· Durable (usually)
· Features of States
· States are parts of larger societies
· Other social actors and organizations
· States direct, or cooridinate action
· But not fully autonomous
· Can vary in their capacity
· Accomplish goals, such as…
· Policing, taxation, defense, managing the economy
· Degree of “stateness” with Failed States at the bottom
Where did States come from?
· Bellicist theory
· States emerge as solution to Hobbes state of nature
· War made states, and states made war (Tilly) – seemed
effective – emerged from these
· Economic theories
· Modern state represents interests of economic elites (Marx,
Beard)
· Are such theories incompatible with the view that states can

8. be autonomous actors?
Explanations cont.
· Cultural theories
· States require lots of their citizens
· Can such obedience occur naturally, or was it the result of
cultural change
· Emphasis on national identity and nationalism
· Diffusion Theories
· How did the state become the central unit of political
identification?
· Skill of war; colonialism; avenue for extending economic
power?
Regimes
· Fundamental rules and norms of politics
· A guidebook for how society and politics operate
· Typically a form of govt, with emphasis on institutions and
rules
· Democratic and non-democratic regimes
· Typically “instutionalized” but not as durable as states
· “regime change” in Iraq
· revolutions in china, iran
· usually embedded in some kind of constitution
States Vs. Regimes
· Mac vs. PC
· They are both computers (states)
· Both have similar features
· Both do roughly the same thing
· But different programming (regimes) determine how they do it
Government
· The leadership or the elite in charge of running the state
· Weakly institutionalized
· We do not think of them as irreplaceable
· We can easily imagine life with a different set of leaders ( and

9. may prefer it)
What is Democracy and how common is it?
· Defining Democracy
· Universal (and positive) connotations
· Tends to be used subjectively
· Demos= “the common people”; Kratia= “power”
· Central distinction between process/procedural (electoral) And
outcome/substantive(liberal)
· Schumpeters definition
· “the democratic method is that insitutiona; arrangement for
arriving at political decisions in which individuals acquire the
power to decide by means of a competitive struggle for the
peoples vote”
· Procedural or substantive
· Samuel Huntington
· “Governments produced by elections may be ineffieicient,
corrupt, shortsighted, irresponsible, dominated by special
interests and incapable of adopting policies demanded by the
public good. These qualities make such govts undesirable but
they do not make them undemocratic” pg 18
· The Fallacy of ‘electoralism”
· Elections are necessary, but not sufficient for democracy
· If x is necessary for y, y can not exist without x
· If x is suffiecient for y, then wherever x is present, y is also
present
Unintended consequences
· Even when fairly conducted and honestly counted, can have
unintended consequences
· “suppose those elected are racists, facists, separatists… that is
the dilemma”
Zakarias concept of “liberal democracy”
· Classically liberal ideas regarding individual rights and
fredoms
· Constitutional liberalism limiting governments ability to

10. violate “inalienable” rights
· “rule of law”
· provides abridhe from a narrow def of ..????
Explain Democracy:
1) Global patterns
2)Individual countries
How did we arrive at the “Democratic century”?
· Pattern before explanation
· Democratic regimes are a recent phenomenon
Ancient Athens and Rome give us Direct and Republic systems,
but also…
One and a half millennia for the first modern democracy?
· Samuel Huntingtons wave metaphor- the third wave
· First wave of democracy: 1828-1926
· US abolishes property req. for make voting for male voting
· How does he define democracy?
· He used it in electoral forms
· Europe
· Total: 33
· First “reverse wave”: 1922-1942
· Democracy became noticeably less common throughout the
world
· Italy and German
· Great Depression
· Total:11
· Second wave: 1943-1962
· Allied victory in WWII
· Latin America
· Decolonization in Africa, Asia
· Total:51
· Second reverse wave: 1958-1975
· Most in the third world

11. · Rise of military authoritarianism
· Total: 29
· Third wave: 1975-?
· West, South Europe
· All other regions affected
· What about more encompassing definitions?
· Little eveidence of a third reverse wave
· What accounts fro the 3rd wave in particular?
· Complex, idiosyncratic explanations
1). Legitimacy issues
-Defining “legitimacy” – we recognize something as
appropriate for our society
- Autocracy- less appropriate or legitimate
-In Autocracies and Democracies
-Economic crisis of authoritarianism – were not able to
2) Overall increases in levels of wealth
- As countries becomes wealthier the odds that theyre
democratic increases
- Variety of “causal mechanisms”
demonstration effect-
· 3rd wave cont.
3) Demonstration effect
-“Snowballing”
- Why is this unique to the Third wave?
4) International pressure
-Direct and indirect
What explains this very strong finding?
Modernization theory—what makes a society modern-
-Established govt
-as societies become more modern, they inevitably become
more democratic
-what does “modern” usually mean?
· More education
· Weakening of older, traditional institutions
· Greater gender equality

12. · Rise of middle class
-The Lipset Correlation
· Lipsets (1959( first observation
· Version 1: “emergence” – most influential articles ever –these
things are correlated together
· An emphasis on “trasnsitions to democracy”
· Regime replacement
· “democratization”
· Consistent with major cases of democratic transition
The 1st rich country -> the first democaratic country – Great
Britian
· Industrial revolution leads to modernization
· Slow but constant evolution toward democracy
· Magna carta (1215)
· Glorious revolution (1928)
· A second explanation of lipsets correlation
Modernization and the endurance of democracy
· Poor democracies ten not to last
· Modernization thus aids in the “consolidation of democracy,
for not the initial transition – institutionalized- those that we
think that are going to last
· Also consistent with major cases
· Early Germany
2. Social structure and democracy
· Adding a layer to the modernization argument
· Three main varieties
· 1. Elite centered explanations
· concentrated wealth, inequality, obstacle to democratization
· Federalist #10-from the U.S- Madison
· 2. Class-based explanations
· middle class
· 3.culture and democracy
· culture defined
· political culture can influence preference for certain kinds of

13. institutions
· Two varieties
· 1. National culture argument – has an impact on political
phenenom
· cultural arguments
· 2. Political values and attitudes
· Churchhills famous argument on democracy
· “The only game in town”
· Important questions have complicated answers
middle class good for democracy book-bugoise
middle classs- not sufficient for democracy
Instructions…..
In 1992, the scholar Francis Fukuyama described the end of the
Cold War and the fall of communism as “the end point of
mankind's ideological evolution and the universalization of
Western liberal democracy as the final form of human
government.” For Fukuyama, this represented the “end of
history” – the definitive victory of liberal democratic
government over all alternatives.
Nearly a quarter century later, Fukuyama’s prediction appears
far too optimistic and perhaps even naïve. Recent experience
has demonstrated that there is nothing inevitable about
autocracy’s replacement with liberal democracy. Rather than
simply assume the global triumph of liberal democracy,
understanding the likelihood of democratic consolidation in
transitional regimes remains a pressing concern of comparative
political scientists.
In this class, you will be asked to write an essay that grapples
with these issues by carefully examining contemporary politics
in a country currently considered “in transition.” Your task is to

14. write a detailed case study regarding the current political
situation in your chosen, including an examination of how
political power is structured and exercised, the presents (or
absence) of the kinds of rights and liberties that define liberal
democracies, and your perspective on whether liberal
democracy will consolidate in the country in the near future or
not (and why). Throughout your paper, you must demonstrate
that you have become an expert on the politics of your country.
This will come from a deep familiarization with current events
and news from your country, not necessarily from academic
treatments of the subject!
However, you should remember that a good case study is not
just a recitation of facts and figures – we have encyclopedias
for this kind of information. Rather, your essay should discuss
your chosen case in the context of the overall theories and
concepts we have been exploring all semester (from lecture, the
textbook, Zakaria’s book The Future of Freedom, and other
class materials). This means that you will have to provide some
overview of these theoretical arguments, critically assess them,
and explore them in sufficient detail that they provide an
analytical framework for your specific argument on the chosen
case study.
Specifics:
Students must choose a country from the Freedom House
2012 Report on “Countries at the Crossroads” (full report is
available on Moodle). The countries are listed in the tables that
start on page 9 of the report.
Papers should be roughly 2000-2500 words in total length,
which is roughly 6-7 pages double-spaced (not including a title
page, bibliography, or any other supplementary material).
This will vary from student to student, but the assignment is not
likely to be completed
satisfactorily at a significantly shorter length.
Papers should use a consistent reference system, such as
Chicago, MLA, or APA. I do not
care what you use but it must be correct and consistently

15. applied.
Papers must have adequate outside research on the country
(largely current event articles).
By adequate, I mean in the range of 8-10 articles at a minimum.
Nondemocratic Regimes and Political Control
· All political regimes need citizens need to follow the rules
(citizens obedience)
· Various ways to achieve the outcome
· These methods (like the varieties of autocracies) also matter’
Coercion and Surveillance
· What we commonly think of as means of control
· Observation, force, torture, harassment
· Or widespread purges, indiscriminate terror
· Secret police as political tool to enforce
Why don't all autocracies use coercion
· Not a moral or ethical objection
· Rather, a cost-benefit analysis
· Coercion is effective but costly
· Better to somehow convince people to follow rules on their
own
· Creation of political legitimacy
· Other forms of control rely on legitimacy instead of coercion
(highly effective, costly, inefficient) – for more non-democracy
has more to do with
Cooptation
· Bringing potential challengers into a dependent relationship
· To appropriate as ones own
· pre-empt a challenge
· Recognize someone who feels different in a certain issue, you

16. coop them
· Helps avert threats to regime stability or existence
· Co-opt rival political leaders
· Co-opt citizens (dependent on regime for provision of key
benefits
· Present in democracies, but widespread in nondemocratic rule
Methods of cooptation
· Corporatism
· Limited number of state-sanctioned organizations
· Private organizations allowed
· Organizations connected directly to state
· Clientelism
· “Patron client relationships”
· Less structured method
· Public exchanges political support for specific favors or
benefits
· Rent-seeking: parts of state “rented out” to supporters
· Can degenerate into “kleptopcracy”-rule by theft- steal
Why do non-democracies persist?
· A preliminary caveat
· What does this question about the “natural state” of the world?
· Is this so?
· Turn our theories o democratization around to ask why non-
democracies might persevere
· Modernization and Nondemocratic Rule
· Lipset reversed
· Emerge: lack of sufficient preconditions
· Endure: poor democracies unlikely to last
· Alternative versions
· Been thinking about “democracy” but we should care about
“stability”
· Is the degree more important than form?
· Modernization is uneven and causes instability
· Instability creates openings for strong leaders who can
institute nondemocratic regimes to restore order

17. · Always probabilistic theories
Historical Institutionalist
· Emphasis on how coalitions among groups or classes shape
regimes
· Emphasizes “agency” in regime outcomes – the decisions
people make
· Elite centered explanations
· Highly unequal societies often reinforce nondemocratic rule
· Larger gulf between rich and poor makes democracy “more
dangerous” for the rich
· Basis in u.s political development
Elite arguments, cont:
· Elite capture of economic “rents” limits democracy- excess
returns to profit
· “Resource curse”
· Sometimes they collect revenues they do not earn
· Boston tea party in reverse
· Basis for provision of goods and services without taxation
· No need for modern economy or middle class, thwarting
modernization
· Facilitate repression
Collective Action Theories
· Rational calculations and personal incentives can explain
persistence of repressive regimes
· Individuals have a few incentives to risk repression
· Might even have strong incentive to not participate
· “free rider” problems – individuals have an incentive to let
other people do all the work for them – do not engage
· In absence of effective coordination, regime remains intact
Why do dictators try so hard to look like democrats?
Elections in Dictatorships
· Many dictatorships spend a great deal of effort establishing
(what look like) the institutional features of democracy

18. · Some of these efforts are comical…
· But others are not so transparent…
· Malaysias one party autocracy wins only 56% of vote in 1999
· Zimbabwe’s Robert MUgb
· Either way, this is a puzzle
· Perhaps elections are just “window dressings”
· But even so, why do some autocrats choose to dress their
windows
· How do autocrats manage the electoral process so tht they can
still win?
But for many dictatorships…
· Elections retain an element of competition
· Raises a series of important questions
1. How should we describe authoritarian regimes with
democratic features
2. Why do such features exist
Russia under Vladimir Putin helps answer these questions
1. How do we describe these regimes?
· Zakarias opening story.. moment of democratic triumph
· Yelstin gave Russia elections, but also…
· Fired regional governors
· Undercut courts…
· Weakened the legislative branch
· Appointed Vladimir Putin as acting president, rendering
scheduled elections meaningless
· A new model: the popular autocrat (picture)
· Illiberal democracies: mixing elections with authoritarianism
· Deomocratic mechanisms exist, but are weakly
institutionalized
· Parties, elections and individual rights and liberties exist (in
varying degrees) but are not the ‘only game in town’
· Executives ten to hold tremendous power
· Turkeys first president Erdogan

19. · “Powers a Latin American Dictator could only dream of”
(opposition party leader)
· Politicization of state institutions and media
· Argentina- has had persistent financial diffuclites for last
15years
· Critical economist audited 4 times in 5 years
· Had to correct $160 of expense reimbursements
· Venezuela
· Independent television news station was refused renewal of
operating license
· Critical newspaper bought in hostile takeover by business
leader with close ties to government
· The “rule of law” is weak
· Selective avoidance
· Regime insiders above the law
· Selective enforcement
· “for my friends, anything. For my enemies, the law” (perus
president Benavides, mid 20th century)
· In Russia- pass a new law that if you attend an unsanctioned
demonstration you have to pay a fine of $9,000 of U.S
· NGO’s who receive foreign funding must register as “foreign
agents”
· Constitutions not binding
· Constitutionalism under fire in Russia
· Prohibition on more than two consecutive terms
· Existence of dual-executive system enables Putin to install
crony, yet keep reigns of power
· In 2012, Putin elected to third, but non-executive term as
President
· Legal by the letter of the law though not the spirit
· A puzzle…
· Puttins main aim is clear- to retain power
· Yet there are easier ways to do this than hold regular,
relatively competitive elections
· Moreveer, Putin has shown willingness to use coercion, cult of
eprsonaluty tatcics

20. 2. Why do dictators even bother with democratic institutions
· Elections as a tool of co-optation
· …of opposition leaders
· forcing opposition party to play by the rules (and lose) helps
manage the threat
· …of opposition of citizens
· Generates information about citizens’ preferences
· Useful for targeting/punishing particular blocks of voters
· Russian govt transfers examples
· An example from Venezuela
· In 2003 petition drive to recall Presiden Hugo Chavez
· Chavez wins his recall vote
· Petition names become part of “Maisanta” list, which is
widely circulated as “enemies list”
· Managing the uncertainty of election outcomes
· Core features of illiberal democracies helps ensure victory,
even if election I competitive
· Campaigning advantages
· High barriers to entry and control over candidate selection
3. what explains the rise of illiberal democracies?
· Russia specific explanations
· Legacy of authoritarian rule limits pro-democratic
developments
· One thousand years of authoritarian rule?
· Tsarism (derived from Ceasar)
· “your majesty’s lowliest slave” –peter the Great, late 1600s
· continues under Volsgeviks in Russian Revolution (1917) and
the USSR
· Political culture effects?
Explanations of Russia’s Illiberal Democracy

21. More generally…
· Liberal democracies require genuine economic development
· Modernization theory and its nuances
“rents” and Authoritarianism – oil rents gone up- quality of
Russian democracy gone down
Are these regimes democratizing “backwards”?
· Two components to liberal democracy
· Historical sequence? Liberal to competitive
· Illiberal democracies sequence?
China: the persistence of one-party rule
Very Different Styles of Non-Democracy
· One-party rule- power concentrated in hands of single party
· Chinese communist party (ccp)
· Today, very little evidence of “cult of personality”
· How does the system work? And how does this matter?
Brief Back ground..
· Ancient and successful civililzaition, but by 1800’s global
power receding
· Key debate becomes “How should China modernize”
· Two opposing views
· Nationalis view
· Communist party (ccp)
· Chinese civil war in 1940s results in CCP victory
· Mao Zedong
China under Mao and his successors
· China today looks very different form Mao’s vision
· Mao- periods of revolutionary change and embrace of
communist economic development
· Some successes but not notable disasters too
· Maos successors reverse course when it comes to economics
Chinas Political Institutions
1. Parallel organization

22. a. Duplication of agencies (govt and party) – it is the party side
prevails
b. CCp side prevails
i. General secretary
ii. Politburo standing committee
iii. Politburo
iv. Nomenklautra – to million posititions
c. Examples
i. Xi Jinping
1. Pres of the prc
2. General sec of the ccp
ii. Li keqiang
1. Premier
a. State council standing committee head
2. Top-raking member of Politburo standing committee
iii. From which position do they derive their power? Postion in
the communist party not the govnt
2. Power flows from the top down
a. Examples
i. “if all goes as planned…” Xi JInping will be general secretary
ii. Politburo “elections” are uncontested
iii. National party congress elect 370 central committee
members… out of a pool of about 370 candidates
Will China Democratize?
· For some versions of Moderniation theory, Chinas stuborn
authoritarianism is a puzzle
· Economic progress is uneven- and associated with rising in
equality.

23. Mexico and the Breakdown of One –Party Rule
One –Party Rule comes in a variety of flavors
· Many ways a single political party can monopolize power
· Banned? Excluded in some other fashion?
· Degree to which party relies on cooptation versus coercion (or
other methods)
· C-optation
· Making people dependent on organization for benefits
· Degree to which it co-exists with variety of institutionalized
democratic mechanisms
Mexico’s One party Rule
· Institutionalized Authoritarianism in Mexico
· Mexico- formal democratic institutions strengthen non-
democratic one-party rule
· Driven by a single party
· Institutional Revolutionary party (PRI)
· 71 years in power (1929-2000)
Was Mexico a democracy under PRI?
· On paper- yes
· Constitutional structure
· Elections and turnout
· Rights, liberties, relatively strong human rights
· In practice- No
· Competitive struggle for peoples vote?
· Presidential elections 1917-1988- average of 89% for PRI
· Political rights
· A few notable exceptions
“The Perfect Dictatorship”
Who wielded the power in Mexico?
· US style institutions
· In practice- extreme power in the office of the president
· Super-Presidentialism

24. · Domination of Congress, legislative process and courts
· Until 1990s, Congress never rejected a Presidential bill
What explains Super-Presidentialism?
1. Single-term Congressional Elections
a. Would you care about your own constituency or your future?
2. President always chooses successor
a. The “dedazo” or “big finger”
b. Historical legitimacy
3. Presidential power of appointment
a. Federalism but power to appointment state officials
4. More generally : co-optation of elites and citizens
a. Elites who broke mold punished
b. Citizens increasingly dependent on regime for public goods,
services; becomes politicized process
The Breakdown of One Party Rule
No such images in Mexico
· Two general typs of transitions
· Abrupt vs. evolving
· Mexicos type?
Key question: why did the PRI stop winning elections?
1. Modernization, economic development, and declining effect
of co-optation – they’re less dependent
2. Periodic economic crisis – they became better off – what did
Huntington say about 3rd wave of legitimacy – bargain between
govt and citizens
3. Demonstration effect
a. By 1990- almost every Latin American country held
competitive elections
4. Electoral and Political reform
a. 1977- Reform part creation rules
b. Reserved legislative seats for opposition
c. Lowered the cost of entry for new parties
d. Motives?

25. 1988 Presidential Election
· Sitting President –Miguel de la Madrid
· Neo-liberalism splits the party
· “the dedazo” -> Carlos Salinas
· A challenger – Cuahtemmoc Cardenas
· Song of past president
· Former PRI member
· Took advtange of economic situation and created own party
· Cardenas polling extrmeley well
· “technical difficulties” delayed announcement
· Recount impossible because ballots “misplaced”
Fraud for the first time
· Even so, Salinas onlywon about half of all votes
· Leads to the creation of independent federal election
commission
· Decades later, Madrid admits fraud
· Autobiography
Democracy in Mexico
· PRI loses 2000 Presidential election
· Vicente Fox, from the National Action Party (PAN)
· 2006 Presidential elections
· Contentious election, disputed result
· 2012 elections…the PRI wins
Comparative lessons between China and Mexico?
· Chinas sequencing more favorable than model of illiberal
democracy?
· Pre-existing (and, for the most part, well functioning)
democratic institutions aided Mexico’s transition
Personal Rule and Neo-Patrimonialism in Africa

26. · “Africa is a nation tat suffers from incredible disease”
· “Africa was a country on the brink of complete meldown”
Of course, Arica is not a country!!!!!!!! It is a continent
· A regionally dominant form of non-democracy
· Personal Rule, or neo-patrimonialism
· Commonality lets us talk Regionally
Politics in Africa: Regional Trends
What Kind of non-democracy did (does?) Africa have…
· In general, authoritarianism has been “personal”
· Power concentrated in individual leader
· Absence of both constitutionalism/rule of law and democratic
mechanisms
· Classic form of non-democracy
· Ceasers, Tsars,Kinds , Emperors
· Africa -> “Big Man”
· Reflects a very different way of creating political legitimacy
Webers three types of legitimacy
1. Rational –legal legitimacy- based on system of laws and
procedures
a. Not the person but the office that matters
2. Traditional- historical myths and legends tie the past to
present
3. Charismatic – individual magnetism that creates following
through ideas
Personal rule is not drive by legal-rational legitimacy
· A tradition argument
· “Democracy is not for Africa. There was only one African
chief and he ruled for life” Mobutu (1984)
· A charismatic argument …
· Julius Nyerete, Leopold Senghor (Tansania Senegal)
· Most often, personal rule in Africa was driven by logic of
patrimonialsm

27. Patrimonialism, defined
· An example from your own life…
· Create legitimacy (and authority) through personal position,
power
· Ordinary people treated as extensions of “big mans” household
· Authority is in the person, not office
· Often unpredictable
Patrimonialism vs. Neo-Patrimonialism
Julias ceaser vs.
How did Neo-patrimonialism work in Africa?
1. Move towards presidentialism
a. Formally- eliminate legislative action, replaces PMs with
Presidents
b. Rise of dictatorships
1. cont.
· Informal elements of poltical centralization
· Rise of “personality cults”
· Kwame Nkfrumah (Ghana)- “the blessed redeemer”
How did Ne0-patrimonialism work in Africa
· Personality cults as tool of authority
2. Clientelism
· Patron-clien relationships
· Patrons award jobs, resources to clients
· Clients return the favor with political support
· Notion of patronage(those in power give to those who support
them) - the fuel with which patrimonial regimes depend on for
their survival -
3. Use of state rescources as personal account
· Completely blurred lines
· Funded patronage
· Natural recourse sector
· Spent lavishly on wasteful projects
Describe what is meant by logic of patrimonialism – everything
that belongs to the household and everything is an extension of

28. that fathers control- idea of the basis of non-democracy to a
system of government- not derived from legal sense-
inditividual citizens are extensions of the leaders household-
neo patrimonialism is different
Something fundamental changes….
· 198501989: 9 countries hold competitive multiparty elections
· 1989-200: 70 different presidential elections across sub-
Saharan Africa, in mot 48 countries
· 42 legislative elections
· 39 of 48 national lefislatures had more at least 2 parties
· “small in comparison, but represents huge shift”
· Notion of “Afircas second independce”
Hwat explains Africas Second Indepenece
· Combination of domestic and international factors
· Domestically:
· Authoritarian leaders presided over economic disaster
· Rise of popular protests against regimes
· Internationally
· Timing with end of Cold War not a coincidence
· Soviet union and United States both had “clients
· “ They may be thugs, but they are our thugs”
Cold War Issues replaced
· Human rights, democracy move to forefront
· Authoritarian leaders no longer protected, and served no
purpose for Western world
· Decline of aid (which made economic problems worse)
· “conditionality” of reforms
How did the Second independence occur?
· Africas “democratic experiments” unfolded in diverse ways

29. · The “China Model” and the Beijing
Consensus ----- the performance legitimacy –
The mesanto list- voting against – signed a recal petitition for
venezlua to have a recall shavaz
· Culture and non-democracy (national
culture vs. "only game in town" theory)
-
democracy (war, weak states, international support for non-
democracies)
----- in text- theories that emphasize culture