The Russian Revival There are two sides to everything in life. Russia is no exception. After nearly 20 years of turmoil that followed the fall of communism and chaotic transition to market economy, Russia is emerging as an economic power house; it is now one of the ten largest economies of the world. Since 2000, Russia’s annual economic growth averaged 7 percent. Since 2003, workers’ salaries have more than doubled. Russia has about $500 billion in foreign currency, a huge sum. In 2007 alone, foreign companies invested about $45 billion in Russia, reflecting their confidence in Russia’s present and future. The man who is largely responsible to Russia’s recent economic reemergence is Vladimir Putin, an ex-KGB spy who was Russia’s president, then prime minister, and now president again. Russia’s recent economic growth is fueled by its energy resources. Russia truly is an energy empire. A quarter of the world’s natural gas reserves are found in Russia. It also commands 17% of the world’s coal reserves and 6% of its oil. (And, very fortunately for Russia, the price of crude oil as of the summer of 2008 is more than $140 per barrel; it was less than $30 per barrel.) A Russian postal stamp testifies to the importance of energy resources, of which Russians are enormously proud. Life of Russians, of course, has irreversibly changed. For example, as TIME reports, “there are more billionaires [in Moscow] than in any other city on earth.” In Russia, it is estimated that there are “119,000 millionaires and 53 billionaires” One of the more obvious indicators of the changing economic life among Russians is how many automobiles are being sold. According to the Economist, a British magazine, in 2007, sales of new cars grew 36% by volume and 57% by value. By 2012 it is estimated that five million new cars will be sold in Russia, of which 90% will be foreign imports. Sudden riches are usually used to support banality and obscenity, and Russia, especially, Moscow, is no exception to this rule. The picture to the left is a view of a posh shopping mall near the Red Square in Moscow that carters to the rising middle class. To the right shows one of the most popular hangouts, a discotheque in Moscow where a regular cocktail costs about $25. This is truly a far cry from the Bolshevik days when the party declared (as shown in the poster below), “Either death to capitalism, or death under the heel of capitalism.” Russia’s economic resurgence has added more clout to Russia in international relations. According to one observer, “Russia is a huge, almost limitless, supplier of [natural] gas, and this makes it probably more powerful now than it was during the Cold War." Why not! Russia’s Gazprom, the world's largest gas producer and also the owner of what is arguably the globe's largest proven gas reserves provides a quarter of Europe's gas needs. Russia’s global clout was confirmed when the international community stayed on the sideline when Russia invaded the capital of ...
The Russian Revival There are two sides to everything in life. Rus.docx
1. The Russian Revival There are two sides to everything in life.
Russia is no exception. After nearly 20 years of turmoil that
followed the fall of communism and chaotic transition to market
economy, Russia is emerging as an economic power house; it is
now one of the ten largest economies of the world. Since 2000,
Russia’s annual economic growth averaged 7 percent. Since
2003, workers’ salaries have more than doubled. Russia has
about $500 billion in foreign currency, a huge sum. In 2007
alone, foreign companies invested about $45 billion in Russia,
reflecting their confidence in Russia’s present and future. The
man who is largely responsible to Russia’s recent economic
reemergence is Vladimir Putin, an ex-KGB spy who was
Russia’s president, then prime minister, and now president
again. Russia’s recent economic growth is fueled by its energy
resources. Russia truly is an energy empire. A quarter of the
world’s natural gas reserves are found in Russia. It also
commands 17% of the world’s coal reserves and 6% of its oil.
(And, very fortunately for Russia, the price of crude oil as of
the summer of 2008 is more than $140 per barrel; it was less
than $30 per barrel.) A Russian postal stamp testifies to the
importance of energy resources, of which Russians are
enormously proud. Life of Russians, of course, has irreversibly
changed. For example, as TIME reports, “there are more
billionaires [in Moscow] than in any other city on earth.” In
Russia, it is estimated that there are “119,000 millionaires and
53 billionaires” One of the more obvious indicators of the
changing economic life among Russians is how many
automobiles are being sold. According to the Economist, a
British magazine, in 2007, sales of new cars grew 36% by
volume and 57% by value. By 2012 it is estimated that five
million new cars will be sold in Russia, of which 90% will be
foreign imports. Sudden riches are usually used to support
banality and obscenity, and Russia, especially, Moscow, is no
exception to this rule. The picture to the left is a view of a posh
2. shopping mall near the Red Square in Moscow that carters to
the rising middle class. To the right shows one of the most
popular hangouts, a discotheque in Moscow where a regular
cocktail costs about $25. This is truly a far cry from the
Bolshevik days when the party declared (as shown in the poster
below), “Either death to capitalism, or death under the heel of
capitalism.” Russia’s economic resurgence has added more clout
to Russia in international relations. According to one observer,
“Russia is a huge, almost limitless, supplier of [natural] gas,
and this makes it probably more powerful now than it was
during the Cold War." Why not! Russia’s Gazprom, the world's
largest gas producer and also the owner of what is arguably the
globe's largest proven gas reserves provides a quarter of
Europe's gas needs. Russia’s global clout was confirmed when
the international community stayed on the sideline when Russia
invaded the capital of South Ossetia, a breakaway territory
within Georgia, and crushed the Georgian military occupying
the disputed land. (Below is Moscow’s International Business
Center.) In any event, not all Russians wallow in “the glistening
slick of petrodollars” Here is how TIME described the chilling
reality of the other side of the petrodollar frenzy: “Beyond
Moscow is a country where the average man doesn’t live to see
60, where the average income is still just $540 a month. A
hundred miles Moscow, the main federal highway melts into
another century, becoming a four-lane road lined by weathered
wooden houses. Old women sit by the shoulder of the road
selling apples.” Also, as one western observer of Russian life
has noted, Russia is a “confusing, disturbing, threatening world
in which all the certainties of Communist life have vanished.
Safety on the streets is gone, as is economic security. Many
professionals earn $20 a month, and the elderly spend almost 80
percent of their pensions on food.” Russia still has some way to
go before it reaches its dream (and that of Mr. Putin) to become
a dominant power in terms of geopolitics, economy, and
military.
3. Russia I The legendary British Prime Minister Winston
Churchill once said, “Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery
inside an enigma.” In other words, non-Russians would never
fully figure out what the Russians are all about and what they
are up to. I would not go that far, but Russians have gone
through so much throughout history and developed the habit of
living their lives despite the chaos that surrounds their lives.
Why did Russia have such an eventful and tumultuous history?
There is a game I play as a geography instructor. I have an
imaginary geography textbook in my mind that I wish to write
and publish someday. I am in constant search of good titles for
the chapters of this imaginary textbook. I work and rework
different phrases or sentences that may capture the past, present
and the future of people, countries, or geographical realms that
the textbook will cover. I have been playing this game with
Russia, and my best thus far has been “Three Strikes, You Are
Out!” At the end of this lecture, I hope you would be able to tell
me whether this title is convincing. Here are the three strikes
for Russia: geographic challenges, historical turmoil, and
economic mismanagement. Let’s start with Russia’s bitter, or
what I call “angry” climate. Look at Russia’s map and you will
realize that it has no barrier against the cold air (artic wind)
that blows down from the Artic Ocean. The northern part of
Russia is known as “arctic lowland” and it is no barrier against
that feisty chill from the world’s rooftop. Once you are over the
Ural Mountains, then you are in Siberia (sleeping land), which
is comprised of tundra and taiga. Tundra is the treeless plain
where just mosses, lichens, and some grasses survive. Then,
below Tundra lies Taiga, most of which is covered with
coniferous forests. A large part of this sleeping land is in the
state of permafrost, where water in the ground is permanently
frozen. Now, when we move down south to Central Asia,
climate is dry while land is arid. That is because the land west
to the Urals is tilted almost imperceptibly to the north, draining
Russia’s rivers into Arctic Ocean, taking away the moisture.
Here, agriculture is almost impossible without irrigation. What
4. are the overall consequences of these climatic conditions? I
want you to take a look at a map on Russia in our textbook
titled "Physiographic Regions of Russia." There are eight
regions numbered in this map. Of them, the number 1, the
“Russian Plain,” which is about one-fifth of Russia, contains the
overwhelming part of the Russian population. Also, that is the
area where most of Russia’s food is being produced. Rest, of
course, is not wasted. For example, the region east of the Ural
Mountains contains rich natural resources. Nevertheless, for
human habitation, Siberia is most challenging. Second, the
historical turmoil. Russia has been a great empire, certainly in
terms of its territorial expanse. Russia was first settled by
Slavs, a group of farmers who originated in modern-day Poland,
Ukraine, and Belarus. They then expanded to the east, and by
1700, had built a powerful empire centered on Moscow that
occupied roughly the present-day Russia without its East
European and Central Asian republics. Thereafter, Russia
expanded further south and west to occupy the landmass later
became the Russian Federation. Russians’ eastward expansion
was spearheaded by a relatively small group of semi-nomadic
people known as Cossacks who are known to have originated
from Ukraine. Their pride in their courage is legendary. Like all
other people of significant historic accomplishments, Russians
too had great leaders who put Russia on the center stage of
human history. Three of them stand out: Czar Peter the Great,
Czarina Catherine the Great (right), and Vladimir Ilyich
Ulyanov, better known as Lenin. What did they accomplish?
Peter the Great, who ruled Russia from 1682 to 1725,
consolidated his loosely knit country to make it a modern,
European-style state. He built St. Petersburg on a swampy land
from scratch and turned itinto one of the great cities of Europe,
if not the world. Under Peter the Great, Russia finally became a
nation to reckon with in Europe. Starting in 1760, Catherine the
Great continued the legacies of Peter the Great. She acquired
more territory to the northwest, to the Baltic Sea, and to the
south to the Black Sea. Russia, under her rule became an
5. imperialist power. In the Nineteenth Century, Russia continued
to expand to defeat and conquer Poland to the west, and the
people of Central Asia to the southeast. Russia, in the early part
of the century, was militarily strong enough to repel the armies
of Napoleon Bonaparte, which no other European country was
able to do. In any event, one of the reasons for Russia’s
unending conquest was, of course, its lacking and desire of
warm-water ports. One of the problems of this history of
conquest and expansion was that Russian has had many enemies
around within and without its borders. (One of the most
magnificent structures in the world is St. Petersburg's Winter
Palace, which is now the Hermitage Museum.) Up to this point,
we have looked into Russia’s territorial expansion and
consolidation. Let us now analyze what was happening in
Russia socio-economically. Was Russia part of the changes and
progress that Western Europe countries spearheaded in the 18th
and 19th centuries? While the rest of Europe is going though
enlightenment, industrialization and commercial revolution
where was Russia? Was Russia part of this socalled
modernization process? It was not. One historian writes that in
the 19th century, Russia was a country essentially based on
“soldiers, secret police, repression, and censorship.” In other
words, it was least progressive of European countries. On top of
all these repressive organs of society, there was serfdom.
Serfdom was the most burdensome problem in czarist Russia.
This system subjugated millions of peasants by tying them to
the land and their landlords. Serfs, though not slaves, were not
free either. They were obligated to render labor services to their
landlords and military service to the Czars. Also they were not
allowed to leave the land without the landlord’s permission. The
Russian economy based on production by this semi-bonded
labor could not compete with free peasants of Western Europe
who sought to maximize their production for personal
enrichment and a more comfortable life. (To your right is a
typical image of Russian peasants who were often described as
having thoroughly internalized centuries of political repression
6. and economic deprivation.) Russia was big, but poor. It was
also mighty, but socio-economically backward. In 1861, the
Russian serfs were freed, but without land to farm and survive
on. Understandably, the quality of their lives did not improve
much. A half century later, in 1917, Russia would become the
first country in history to succeed in a Communist revolution,
led by Lenin (left) that abolished private property, and setup a
dictatorship of workers and peasants. Did the people of Russia
fair any better under the Communist system? That is a difficult
question to answer. One thing is certain though. In terms of
industrialization the Soviet Union was no comparison to the
Czarist Russia. Under Communism, Russia became one of the
most industrialized countries in the world. However, this
accomplishment came with an appalling human cost. Here
comes the discussion on economic failures. Let us look at the
following figures. After the turmoil of the Bolshevik Revolution
was more or less settled in the late 1920s, the Soviet Union
began its rapid industrialization that transformed Russia into a
major industrial power. From 1928 to 1932 Russia quadrupled
the production of heavy machinery and doubled it oil
production. From 1928 to 1937, in ten years, the Soviet Union’s
steel production increased from 4 to 18 million tons. In the
same period the annual economic growth rate of the Soviet
Union was between 14 and 20 percent a year, a phenomenal
accomplishment. By 1938, the Soviet Union outdistanced
Britain, and nearly equaled Germany as a producer of pig iron
and steel. It should not be underestimated that in World War II,
the Russian Army managed to repel and defeat the Nazi
invaders due in no small measure to its heavy industrial
capacity. (To the right is a heroic and paternalistic Josef Stalin
who still symbolizes the oppressive nature of the Soviet society
even after 50 years since his death.) But these phenomenal
accomplishments belied the brutality inflicted upon the
Russians and the degree to which they had to sacrifice. First,
following the Bolshevik Revolution, the Soviet government
confiscated foodstuff from the peasants in order to accumulate
7. capital for industrialization and to feed the industrial workers.
Compounded by successive crop failures, between 1920 and
1922, about five million people were starved to death.
Thereafter more problems emerged. Rapid modernization
required peasants to collectivize their farms and starve to feed
the workers, workers to endure low living standards, and the
most energetic stratum of the peasantry -- kulaks, or
landowning peasants -- to be sacrificed. The ultimate goal was
realization of the socialist dream of creating economic
abundance that would allow each person to receive according to
his or her needs, rather than according to his or her ability. The
failure of this dream was revealed starkly in the fact that the
real wage of Soviet workers declined by 43 percent between
1928 and 1940. According to one estimate, during the Soviet
rule, between 30 and 60 million people lost their lives from
imposed starvation, political purges, Siberian exile, and other
forms of persecutions. (The picture above shows a young
industrial worker who seems exhausted and bewildered.) What
were these sacrifices for? The answer is a rapid industrialization
and production of capital goods. Theoretically, heavy industrial
productivity should promote light industry that would churn out
consumer goods in abundance. Well, this theory did not
materialize. Yes, Russia’s heavy industries -- energy,
machinery, armament, and iron and steel -- were massive, and to
some extent, impressive. However, people do not enjoy a
comfortable life because their country produces one of the most
durable farm tractors in the world. How much do you think the
quality of life of the Russians improved because of Russia’s
impressive armament or space program? I don’t think it did very
much. (To left is the ubiquitous image of Soviet life – a long
line at the state stores that did not have much stocks to begin
with.) By late 1980s, after seven decades of the Soviet
command economy that could not produce enough consumer
goods for the people, and living under a totalitarian political
system that forced unbearable sacrifice of individual rights, the
Soviet Union simply disintegrated. As Moscow disintegrated, so
8. did the U.S.S.R and its control over East European countries.
The Soviet Union did one thing rather well. Building huge
factories and structures like the apartment here. However, what
they built, such as a utilitarian-looking apartment building here
looked rather drab and not so resident-friendly.) Are the
Russians fairing any better after the disintegration of the Soviet
system? Let us look at the positive side first. The Russians
probably are enjoying more personal freedom than when they
lived under the Communist rule. However, in other aspects of
life they are inundated with challenges. Economically, the
transition from communism to capitalism has led to increase in
unemployment, class division, and the loss of pension by the
retired workers. It is estimated that in Russia, the 30 richest
persons together control about two-thirds of Russia's GDP
(Gross Domestic Product). These wealthy individuals obviously
have strong ties with Russian politicians and some critics of
Russian society noted that this alliance has turned Russia into a
kleptocracy, or rule by thieves. Some even go as far as to say
that Russia is ruled by Russian Mafia. (Here, you are looking at
abandoned children of Russia.) Although improvements have
been made and there is more transparency and accountability in
the Russian economy and polity, Russia still has long way to go.
Political corruption and economic disparity have produced one
unique by-product. Despite the end of Communist rule in
Russia, the former communists and hard-line Russian
nationalists enjoy support from people who believe that Russia
has become a worst place since the end of Communism. (Left)
There are other issues in the post-Communist Russia, such as
increasingly influence of organized crime, social inertia,
alcohol abuses, and public health problems, including the rise in
the number of people inflicted with AIDS due to the failure of
public health system. (To you right is an elderly Russian woman
successfully stood on a food line.) Russia since the fall of
communism has faces another problem -- the separatist
movements. One good example is Russia’s conflict with
Chechnya. For about ten years until 2009, Russia battled the
9. Chechen separatist guerrillas who launched brutal and
horrifying terrorist attacks such as storming a Moscow theater
or school building in southern Russia. As you can imagine
massive civilian casualties were produced by such acts of
terrorism. On the other hand, the Russian troops undertook
equally harsh counterinsurgency measures in Chechnya that
draw international criticism. (Here are some young Russians
soldiers dispatched to fight the Chechen separatist guerrillas.)
Truce was signed between the Russians and Chechens but the
tension has not completely dissipated. To put it to you simply,
Russians are not particularly liked by non-Russians who were
once forced to live under the same roof called U.S.S.R. So, here
I am again, asking you whether you think the title for the
chapter on Russia (up to the fall of Communism) in my
imaginary geography textbook is convincing. Do you think I
should keep “Three Strikes, You Are Out”? Could you add your
comments to your response to the discussion question on
Russia? As you know, there are two sides to everything and
Russia has recent achieved some success in economic
development. Is Russia experiencing a revival? Let us move to
our next lecture note.