Analysis and outlook of China's charging infrastructure industry

New Leading Engineering Management
Student Name: Peihang An
Student ID: P 2027571
Dissertation submitted to the University of Bristol in partial
fulfilment for the Degree of Master of Science in
Engineering with Management
Infrastructure Systems
Supervised by: Mr. Andy Crossley
Department of Civil Engineering
Submitted in 25 September 2021
Number of Words: 13,454

ABSTRACT
In recent years, New Energy Vehicles in China have developed rapidly. This creates a huge
demand for charging infrastructure. It is a difficult problem to accurately identify future
market characteristics and efficient business operations in China. In response, this thesis
summarises the future development characteristics of the Chinese charging infrastructure
market by analysing industry reports and publicly available data to provide guidance on the
development of the industry. It also proposes a new business model on the operation of
charging facilities using the Porter Five Forces model and Business Model Canvas. Finally,
this thesis provides some suggestions on a management method based on case analysis
toward vehicle-network-synergy to fully make use of the charging piles, benefiting both
NEV users and grid.
Key Words: Charging Infrastructure, New Energy Vehicle (NEV), Charging Pile, Charging
Operation, Business Model, Public-Private Partnership, Vehicle-to-Grid, Vehicle-Network-
Synergy, Interoperability, Asset Management

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I would like to thank all the people that have supported the accomplishment of this
dissertation.
Firstly, I would like to thank my Supervisor Mr. Andy Crossley who gave me initial thoughts
on the topic and enlightening feedbacks on my paper. I also appreciate his help with my
vocabulary and grammar, which was very helpful to a non-native English speaker like me.
Without the selfless assistance of Mr. Andy Crossley, it would have been almost impossible
for me to complete this thesis. I would also like to thank Prof. Julian Booker, though he did
not directly supervise my research, he kept an eye on me and several other Chinese students
via constantly video conferences and gave us important advice on our future plans. I would
also like to thank Dr Hadi Abulrub, who has been reminding me and all my classmates via
email about the various considerations for the dissertation and has provided us with
important sample paper for reference. I would especially like to mention Prof. Chris
McMahon and Prof. Theo Tryfonas who patiently answered my questions on several
occasions.
In addition, I would express my profound gratefulness to my classmates and parents. Sen
Shang(尚森), my former group leader who accompanied me to study in Queen's Building
and gave a lot of important advice about the industry and writing. My family, who selflessly
sponsored my studies and life in the UK during this period, allowing me to complete my
dissertation without concerns. My old friends from Beijing Jiaotong University, who helped
me to collect open data in residential areas of Beijing so that I could complete the case
analysis section. I would also like to extend my thanks to all the media, government agencies
and companies, represented by Xinhua News Agency, State Council Information Disclosure
Platform, Development and Reform Commission, State Grid etc., who have provided me
with public data and industry reports free of charge for academic using.
Last but not least, I would also like to thank all the new friends I have made during my year
in the UK who have helped me in my life, regardless of nationality, race or religion. In
particular, my flatmate Villa Yu, who often offers suggestions to my essays from a
perspective of a person with no background knowledge of engineering and shares her writing
skills with me.

DECLARATION
I declare that the work in this dissertation was carried out in accordance with the
requirements of the University’s Regulations and Code of Practice for Taught Programmes
and that it has not been submitted for any other academic award. Except where indicated by
specific reference in the text, this work is my own work. Work done in collaboration with,
or with the assistance of others, is indicated as such.
I have identified all material in this dissertation which is not my own work through
appropriate referencing and acknowledgement. Where I have quoted or otherwise
incorporated material, which is the work of others, I have included the source in the
references. Any views expressed in the dissertation, other than referenced material, are those
of the author.
I declare the presented dissertation satisfies the requirements of the MSc in Engineering with
Management provide insights into the relevant knowledge on business practices issues
within the engineering and/or technology sectors. I understand that projects that fails to meet
the suitability standard are carry the risk of not meeting some of the programme outcomes.
I am willing for my marked dissertation to be used for training purposes.
……………….
Peihang An
25 September 2021

TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACT..........................................................................................................................2
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS.................................................................................................3
DECLARATION..................................................................................................................4
TABLE OF CONTENTS.....................................................................................................5
LIST OF FIGURES .............................................................................................................7
LIST OF TABLES ...............................................................................................................9
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ...........................................................................................10
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION.....................................................................................11
1.1 OVERVIEW OF THE RESEARCH AND ITS IMPORTANCE...........................11
1.2 RESEARCH QUESTION AND OBJECTIVES......................................................12
1.3 RESEARCH APPROACH OVERVIEW.................................................................12
CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW.........................................................................13
2.1 CONCEPT INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................13
2.2 LITERATURE REVIEW FOR CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE ....................14
CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY....................................................................................19
3.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................19
3.2 RESEARCH APPROACH SELECTION ................................................................19
3.3 DATA COLLECTION...............................................................................................19
3.4 LIMITATIONS...........................................................................................................20
3.5 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS...............................................................................20
CHAPTER 4: THE DRIVING FORCES ........................................................................21
4.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................21
4.2 INDUSTRY DRIVERS...............................................................................................21
4.2.1 NEW ENERGY VEHICLE......................................................................................21
4.2.2 POLICY .....................................................................................................................24
4.2.3 CAPITAL...................................................................................................................25
CHAPTER 6: BUSINESS MODELS ...............................................................................36
6.1 PORTER FIVE FORCES ANALYSIS......................................................................36
6.2 BUSINESS MODELS OF CHARGING OPERATION...........................................38
6.3 NEW PROPOSED BUSINESS MODEL..................................................................40

6.4 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR GOVERNMENT ...................................................42
CHAPTER 7: TECHNOLOGY EVALUATION............................................................44
7.1 INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................44
7.2 INTEROPERABILITY...............................................................................................44
7.3 VEHICLE-NETWORK-SYNERGY..........................................................................45
7.3.1 V2G.............................................................................................................................46
7.3.2 ORDERLY CHARGING .........................................................................................47
CHAPTER 8:CASE ANALYSIS......................................................................................50
8.1 INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................50
8.2 CASE A: VEHICLE-NETWORK-SYNERGY.........................................................50
8.3 CASE B: CHARGING PILE MANAGEMENT.......................................................54
8.4 SUMMARY ..................................................................................................................60
CHAPTER 9: DISCUSSION ............................................................................................61
9.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................61
9.2 EXPECTED MARKET SCALE.................................................................................61
9.3 EXPECTED MARKET PATTERN...........................................................................63
9.3.1 MATTHEW EFFECT INTENSIFIES....................................................................63
9.3.2 DIVERSIFICATION................................................................................................64
9.4 VEHICLE-NETWORK-SYNERGY AND NEW MANAGEMENT ......................64
9.5 SUMMARY ..................................................................................................................66
CHAPTER 10: CONCLUSION AND PROSPECTS .....................................................67
10.1 CONCLUSION...........................................................................................................67
10.2 PROSPECTS ..............................................................................................................67
LIST OF REFERENCES ..................................................................................................69
APPENDIX A: INFORMATION ABOUT THE INDUSTRY DRIVERS....................81
APPENDIX B: INFORMATION ABOUT THE MARKET STATUS.........................83
APPENDIX C: INFORMATION ABOUT V2G.............................................................84
APPENDIX D: INFORMATION ABOUT EXPECTED MARKET SCALE..............85
APPENDIX E: INFORMATION ABOUT EXPECTED MARKET PATTERN ........86

LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1 Global Plug-in Vehicle Markets of BEV & PHEV- Light Vehicles (Roland Irle,
2021) ....................................................................................................................................11
Figure 2 Research Methodology Overview, by Author.......................................................12
Figure 3 Basic concepts about charging infrastructure, by Author......................................13
Figure 4 China New Energy Vehicle Sales 2015-2020, graph by Author...........................22
Figure 5 Local Government’s policy-making model, by Author.........................................25
Figure 6 Financial Events from 2015-2020 in China, Summarised by Author ...................26
Figure 7 Charging pile ownership and growth rate in mainland China, 2015-2020...........27
Figure 8 Charging Pile Ownership in Mainland China 2015-2020 (www.chyxx.com, 2021)
..............................................................................................................................................28
Figure 9 China's private charging pile allocation rate 2016-2020, by Author.....................29
Figure 10 Figure Distribution of Public Charging Piles in China, by Author ....................30
Figure 11 The top 5 Provinces/cities took up almost 50%, by Author ................................30
Figure 12 Charging infrastructure industry chain, by Author..............................................31
Figure 13 CR3 market share of China's charging pile industry, 2016-2019, by Author.
Data Source: (Qianzhan Industry Research Institute, 2020)................................................32
Figure 14 Challenges for Companies, By Author................................................................33
Figure 15 Challenges for Users, By Author.........................................................................33
Figure 16 Porter Five Forces Model ....................................................................................36
Figure 17 Charging operator business model, by Author. ...................................................38
Figure 18 Business Model of Third-Party Platform, by Author .........................................39
Figure 19 Business Model Canvas for the Cooperation, by Author ....................................41
Figure 20 Life-Cycle of PPP projects,by Author.................................................................42
Figure 21 Interoperability process model,by Author...........................................................45
Figure 22 A simple structure of V2G system (Bibak and Tekiner-Moğulkoç
, 2021) .........46
Figure 23 Three methods to achieve Vehicle-Network-Synergy, by Author. .....................48
Figure 24 A framework for the vehicle-network-synergy mode, by Author. ......................49
Figure 25 Impact of Vehicle-Network-Synergy, by Author................................................50
Figure 26 Hours of use for common private charging piles, by Author. .............................51
Figure 27 Simulated Load Curves (State Grid, 2018)..........................................................51
Figure 28 Application process for private charging piles....................................................54
Figure 29 Prediction on the NEV sales in China, by Author...............................................61

Figure 30 Prediction on the Car-Pile Ratio in China, by Author.........................................62
Figure 31 Charging pile construction targets proposed by various local governments, by
Author. .................................................................................................................................81
Figure 32 Charging Pile Ownership Y-o-Y Growth Rate of CR8 companies as of June
2020, by Author ...................................................................................................................83

LIST OF TABLES
Table 1 Comparison of AC charging piles and DC charging piles, by Author ...................14
Table 2 The major periods of development of charging infrastructure in China, by Author
..............................................................................................................................................18
Table 3 Classification of the three types of NEVs, by Author............................................22
Table 4 Comparison of subsidies for some popular NEV models in China of 2018 and
2019, by Author. ..................................................................................................................23
Table 5 Comparison of subsidies for different mileages of NEV in China of 2018 and
2019, by Author. ..................................................................................................................23
Table 6 Three main types of typical operators, by Author ..................................................32
Table 7 Comparison of charging standards and interoperability between China and other
countries, by Author.............................................................................................................35
Table 8 Comparison of the characteristics of orderly charging and disorderly charging, by
Author ..................................................................................................................................48
Table 9 Simulated electricity consumption data. (State Grid, 2018)...................................52
Table 10 Number of parking spaces required for NEVs, by Author.
Data Source: (www.gov,cn, 2015) (caam.org.cn, 2017)......................................................56
Table 11 Key Parameters of the Management Plan, by Author..........................................57
Table 12 Relevant Policies Supporting Charging Infrastructure Market, summarised by
Author. .................................................................................................................................81
Table 13 Typical financing cases in the charging infrastructure in 2020, summarised by
Author. .................................................................................................................................82
Table 14 Major V2G projects in recent years, by Author....................................................84
Table 15 Major HPC products in China, by Author ...........................................................85
Table 16 Investment of the major charging infrastructure participants, summarised by
Author ..................................................................................................................................86
Table 17 New players in the charging infrastructure industry, summarised by Author ......86

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
NEV: New Energy Vehicle
EV: Electric Vehicle
BEV：Battery Electric Vehicle
PHEV：Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle
FCEV: Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles
GHG: Greenhouse Gas
AC: Alternating Current
DC: Direct Current
V2G: Vehicle-to-grid
PPP: Public-Private Partnership
O&M: Operation and Maintenance
NPV: Net Present Value
LCM: Life Cycle Management
SaaS: Software as a Service
HPC: High Power Charging
RMU: Ring Main Unit
CCIG: China Capital Investment Group
BMCDR: Beijing Municipal Commission of Development and Reform
BMCUM: Beijing Municipal Commission of Urban Management

CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION
1.1 Overview of the Research and its Importance
In 2020, the light vehicle market shrank by 14 % due to the shock of the covid-19 pandemic.
However, the global NEV sales bucked the trend by 43% year-on-year in 2020 reaching 3.24
million and a 4.2% market share. Despite the slowdown in growth, mainland China held the
position of being the biggest NEV market in 2020 with over 1.3 million sales and over 40%
of the international market share. (Roland Irle, 2021)
Figure 1 Global Plug-in Vehicle Markets of BEV & PHEV- Light Vehicles (Roland Irle, 2021)
The development of NEVs in China is likely to maintain a consistent, rapid momentum. This
means that the infrastructure associated with NEVs must keep similar pace and with
innovative operational management models to match the ever-growing the NEV industry.
The service capacity of the charging infrastructure can determine the scale of NEV market
and indirectly affects the environmental issues. Transport creates 25% of anthropogenic
GHG emissions (Yang et al., 2018) and about half of this comes from light-duty vehicles on
road. (Fritz, Plö
tz and Funke, 2019) Furthermore, it is clear from the simulations that the
wide spread use of NEVs can effectively reduce energy consumption by 23%. (Alla et al.,
2021) Research on charging infrastructure is therefore of long-term practical value, whether
from business, the environment or an energy perspective. This industry is thus also highly
valued and supported by the Chinese government in recent years. The most recent example
was the State Council's government work report issued in May 2020 where the importance

of promoting the construction of seven ''New Infrastructures'', represented by the ''charging
infrastructure'' was emphasised by the Premier himself. (www.gov.cn, 2020)
1.2 Research Question and Objectives
Against the above background, charging infrastructure will be an important engineering
topic for some time to come, and the research questions that this thesis seeks to answer are
as follows.
In China's particular context, how to propose charging infrastructure development
and management solutions that are better suited to its ‘own development path’?
More specifically, to guide organisations towards innovation in this area, this thesis intends
to identify a course of action that can lead the industry by investigating the current status of
this industry. This research thus aims to achieve the following objectives:
Objective 1: Explore the current state of China's charging infrastructure. Identify its core
development drivers, business models as well as the dilemmas.
Objective 2: Make reasonable predictions about the future of this. Mainly includes
expectations for both the market and technology.
Objective 3: Propose suggestions for management models through case studies
1.3 Research Approach Overview
The overall research approach in this thesis is shown as below
Figure 2 Research Methodology Overview, by Author

CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Concept Introduction
Charging infrastructure refers to the various types of charging and switching facilities that
provide electric energy to electric vehicles and is a new type of urban infrastructure. As the
most direct energy supply device for NEVs, the performance and quality of the charging
piles are related to the service life of the electric vehicle battery pack and the user experience.
Figure 3 Basic concepts about charging infrastructure, by Author
AC Charging Pile DC Charging Pile
Type In-ground;
Wall-mounted;
Mobile;
All-in-one;
Split;
Mobile;
Interface One pile for one; One pile for two
Scenario Household;
Parking lot;
Shopping mall;
Bus;
Highway;
Parking lot;

Charging Method Using On-board charger as an
intermediary;
Direct charging the power
cell;
Input Voltage 220V 3800V
Output Voltage 220V 200-700V
Charging Power 7kW,14kW 30-120kW
Charging Time 4-8h 20min-150min
Table 1 Comparison of AC charging piles and DC charging piles, by Author
2.2 Literature Review for Charging Infrastructure
Concept Period (2000-2007): Nansai et al. (2001) argued that the many uncertainties in
charging demand and charging behaviour due to the development of EV technology made
the coexistence of multiple charging methods inevitable in Japan. This article also discussed
the environmental loads of EV infrastructure, this article, and Japan for that matter, is ahead
of the curve in terms of environmental considerations and the regional differences in the
distribution of electricity due to the different power companies mentioned in the article.
ReVelle et al. (2005) have provided a comprehensive analysis of location selecting for a
charging infrastructure in 2005, summarising some of the successful site selection examples
from the past and extending the existing model by adding different constraints. As for China,
such scholars as Wang (2005), Ge (2007) and Lin (2006) argued that when planning an NEV
charging station one must consider the location and capacity of the higher-level substation;
the network structure of the transmission and distribution and, most importantly, the impact
of the load. Hence the planning and layout of charging facilities are quite different from that
of traditional petroleum stations, profitability cannot be the main objective of the primary
stage of planning and construction of NEV infrastructures. Although the standard system for
NEVs had been initially formed in China, the standard for charging has not yet been
established, and the research on capacity prediction and layout planning of charging facilities
needed to be further deepened. Related research by Chinese scholars during this period
provided many ideas for future NEV infrastructure in China.
Initial Period (2007-2015): This is a period of rapid development for the EV industry and
many studies began to focus on the practical construction and operation of charging facilities.
Morrow (2008) analysed the needs for construction of the infrastructure within three
different, and evaluated the cost of construction of different charging facilities. Hatton et al.

(2009) emphasises that NEV development is based on the construction of a network of
charging facilities and analyses the different charging facility construction models. Wang et
al (2010), on the other hand, has developed a multi-objective planning model by analysing
the interaction between charging infrastructure, the characteristics of EV consumers, the
layout of the urban electricity network and urban construction planning. Hadley's (2007)
analysis of the relationship between EVs and regional grid supply suggests that charging
infrastructure should be planned in conjunction with urban distribution networks. These
articles provided an important theoretical basis for what would become the more popular
"siting problem" in EV infrastructure. Even today, the ideas of papers from this period can
be found in heuristic algorithms, Particle Swarm Optimization or almost any other novel
siting algorithm. Wirges, Linder and Kessler (2012) have presented a dynamic space model
for NEV charging infrastructure in Stuttgart, German. This model reveals that the
construction and operation of EV charging infrastructure is most possible to be feasible in
dense urban areas. This would undoubtedly severely limit the mobility of EVs on a large
scale. Moreover, the article also concluded with the possibility of optimising this model in
the future by incorporating commuting data into the modelling, making it more refined
simulating different user groups and different activities, or even more complex charging
behaviour. In terms of the impact of charging infrastructure on the grid, Jason (2009)
analysed the impact of three charging modes on the electricity load and suggested that
regional generation capacity and transmission capacity are the limiting factors for the scale
of charging. For government policies, Jun (2010) suggests that the government has limited
funds to invest in the construction of public infrastructure, and that the introduction of social
capital for public infrastructure concessions could be considered. In this regard, Weisbrod,
Mulley and Hensher (2016) have developed and analysed data on the operation of the
charging infrastructure industry and suggested that a cost-benefit analysis should be used to
demonstrate the feasibility of the franchise model before it enters the social infrastructure
and utility construction and operation sector. At the same time, more Chinese scholars had
made important points about the integrated development of EV infrastructure. Gao and
Zhang (2011) argued that the construction of charging facilities can be paired with the layout
of renewable energy sources. The grid's requirements for the stability of energy generation
are very high. In the meantime, new energy sources such as wind power often have a lot of
uncertainties in the process of power generation, which inevitably brings large uncertainties
to the grid. Distance between the charging facilities and the new energy generation base can
therefore be reduced. They also pointed out that a significant part of the cost of building

charging stations comes from the increasingly high land price. The easiest way for energy
companies such as oil companies to meet the demand for more charging is to convert existing
gas stations into charging stations. Lu, Zhou and Zhang (2010) pointed that the State Grid
has the responsibility and obligation to take an active and leading role in promoting the
development of NEV infrastructure. Li and Su (2011) built a model to optimise the cost of
charging facilities based on queuing theory with the priority of minimizing the cost on
construction. Wu, Li and Du (2010) proposed an optimization model for the selection of
NEV charging methods based on the current diversified charging approaches and
summarized how to predict the charging demand; at the same time, they developed a
planning process and built a planning model with optimal investment and operation costs
with actual cases. In summary Chinese scholars of this period started to propose some
practical directions and strategies for the development of NEV infrastructure according to
the Chinese context.
Expansion Period (2015-2021): This is a period of maturity for NEVs, when technical
research is beginning to focus on the application of big data and artificial intelligence, as
well as technologies such as wireless charging (Mohamed, Meintz and Zhu, 2019), or on
summarising the results of the previous phase and looking to the future. A growing body of
research is being produced on forecasting the market, development, and commercial
operation of EV infrastructure. Saber and Venayagamoorthy (2015) constructed linear and
non-linear models with energy efficiency and emission reduction as the objective function,
based on the planning of charging facilities in California in 2015. H.S. Das et al (2019)
discussed the practical significance of integration infrastructure of charging facility and grid.
In addition, by reviewing the current mainstream algorithms and models for locating
charging stations, Pagany (2018) suggests that the next phase of the planning approach
should focus more on the activity behaviour of users. As China's EV technology and market
develops, the operation of charging infrastructure is becoming a concern for Chinese
scholars. Liu and Cao analysed (2015) the advantages and disadvantages of the three current
international mainstream charging pile operation models, namely government-led, grid-led
and car manufacturer-led, and concluded that a single model is not suitable for the current
stage of development, and that the alliance model of "car manufacturer + grid enterprise" is
more feasible. Lu (2015) further pointed out that a reasonable incentive policy is an
important measure to promote the improvement of charging infrastructure, and through the
establishment of a mathematical model to achieve the goal of maximizing the profitability

of charging stations and minimizing social costs, the optimal ratio of fast and slow charging
facilities at charging stations was determined, and finally the location and capacity of
charging stations were completed, which laid a good foundation for the whole life cycle of
charging infrastructure. For private capital into the charging industry, Li (2016) proposed
that the reform of the electricity market will help the sustainable development of the power
industry, and the introduction of private capital in multiple links is conducive to breaking
the monopoly of the power grid industry for a long period of time. Yang, Long and Li (2017)
demonstrated the feasibility of introducing the PPP model for charging infrastructure in
China and proposed a static mechanism for the participants of the PPP model for charging
infrastructure and a dynamic operation mechanism to promote the entry of private capital
into the operation of charging facilities. Zheng et al (2016) studied the current situation as
well as the development of the EV charging mode, proposing a proportion alternative-fusion-
methods to predict the EV ownership. They also built a model to predict the need for EV
charging infrastructure based on the charging characteristics of different types of EVs, which
could be very helpful in conducting business analysis. Wang and Huang (2016) have
reviewed the current developments of the global EV industry and charging facility planning,
and includes field research, analysis of relevant industrial policies, new technology
applications, business models and charging facility planning, and a summary of the
experiences of the US, Japan and France in the development of charging facilities, which
can provide reference for the understanding of the environment and influencing factors for
the configuration of charging facilities in China and provide insights for rational planning.
This article from 2016 can be viewed together with another review about EV infrastructure
in UK written by Chen TJ et al. (2020), They fill each other's gaps in time and space. Within
Chen’s article, three key factors relating to the charging facility were mainly discussed i.e.
location, cost and design. Moreover, it also summarised the management and operation
method as well as several business models toward EV infrastructure which interested me
most. It systematically suggested that the deployment of EV infrastructure requires
considerable planning in cost, converter circuit topology, consumer needs, electricity
distribution network, and social and environmental factors. At the same time, it emphasises,
as has the literature before it, the necessity to work with the grid and new energy sources.
This article is more comprehensive in terms of micro-technology, macro-planning and
business management and has given me direction for my project. It is particularly important
to note that the UK experience and model must not be copied when considering this case of
China.

China's charging infrastructure has gone through different periods of development. The
developing period can be divided into four parts:
Concept Period 2000-2007 The concept of NEVs and charging
infrastructure is starting to gain popularity.
Initial Period 2007-2015 State Grid undertakes major construction work
Expansion Period 2015-2021 Supportive policies and influx of private capital
leads to acceleration
Developing Period 2021-Future “New Infrastructure” concept makes new
capital join the area.
Table 2 The major periods of development of charging infrastructure in China, by Author
Starting in 2021, as the Chinese government's policy support for charging infrastructure
strengthens and the operational and business models for charging facilities progress with
the application of new technologies, there will be increasing scope for their development,
which will continue to attract new social capital into the sector.

CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY
3.1 Introduction
This project uses mainly qualitative research methods, with some basic quantitative
calculations used in exploring the management section. Chapter 3 focuses on introducing the
data sources and the process of the research as well as the limitations of the methodology in
this thesis.
3.2 Research Approach Selection
In this project, case study, policy analysis and a business model canvas were chosen for the
research. The case study approach was chosen because the thesis is more practice-oriented
and therefore the choice of real-life cases is more instructive. The policy analysis method is
a popular and well-established research method in China and was chosen because of the
country's unique political and economic system.
3.3 Data Collection
The data and information in this project are mainly derived from surveys published by
consultancy firms, annual reports released by commercial companies, government-issued
documents and public data. Firstly, due to China's special socialist market economy system,
where state authorities play a leading role in guiding the economy, documents issued by the
government are of very high reference value for the study of a particular industry. Secondly,
as this thesis focuses on practical value, industry reports and project initiatives issued by
commercial organisations are used as important research subjects. The authors have
therefore adopted a case study approach, particularly in terms of policy analysis.
For the first case analysis, data derived from a report published by the State Grid was used
directly for further quantitative analysis. The data published by the State Grid is highly
authoritative. The analysis was carried out by comparing the data before and after the

application of V2G technology. For the second analysis, data on charging infrastructure
published by an average residential community was used. The analysis method is to calculate
the ideal state when the community manages the charging facility with electricity
3.4 Limitations
Due to the use of secondary data, the project may be limited on the depth of research
materials available. This is compensated for this, by proposing new management models. In
some of the quantitative analyses, the author has applied some large-scale statistical averages
to small-scale cases as a proxy for carrying out field research due to being located in the UK
during the research period. Therefore, the author has selected more representative general
cases rather than particular individual cases. This was impacted b the UK/China travel
restriction during 2020 onward pandemic.
3.5 Ethical Considerations
Firstly, the data and information on the market, commercial and technical aspects of the
charging infrastructure is based on publicly available government documents, industry
reports and product specifications provided by the relevant companies on their official
websites. The information and data from the network are completely open to the public with
no ethical considerations.
Secondly, the data on the community's charging infrastructure was collected on behalf of the
author by commissioning his friends to visit the site. Firstly, this community is open to the
public and no permission is required to enter. Secondly, this information and data comes
from direct observation, on the one hand, and from notices posted in the community by the
community management office and paper documents distributed to the community (these
documents are available to anyone at the management office free of charge), so the process
of collecting this information does not involve any questionnaires with people and there are
no ethical concerns either.

CHAPTER 4: THE DRIVING FORCES
4.1 Introduction
Chapter 4 provides an identification and analysis of the driving force of the charging
infrastructure industry in China.
4.2 Industry Drivers
Analysis on government documents and business cases indicates that there are three main
drivers of China's current charging infrastructure industry: NEV; Policy; and Capital.
4.2.1 New Energy Vehicle
NEVs are undoubtedly one of the driving forces as an object directly related to charging
infrastructure which have been receiving national attention for years. It was listed as one
of the "Seven Major Strategic Industries" (www.gov.cn, 2010). In 2014, the President of
China himself proposed that: “The development of new energy vehicles is the necessary
way for China to move from being a large automotive country to a strong automotive
country.” (xinhuanet.com, 2014)
Since 2013, to promote NEVs, consumers can receive subsidies for purchasing them
directly from government. The subsidies are based on the price difference between NEVs
and similar conventional vehicles and they will decrease each year, considering factors
such as technological progress. (lawinfochina.com, 2013). The current subsidy policy
has been extended until 2022. The latest government plan has proposed that by 2025, the
proportion of NEVs' sales should reach 25 % and from 2021, all new-added vehicles
used in the public sector and some key areas must use new energy. (Chu, 2021)
With the national support, NEV in China has started to grow rapidly providing a solid
demand for charging infrastructure. China now has a NEV market share of more than half

of the global market for four consecutive years. (ev-volumes.com, 2021) The current NEVs
in China include PHEVs, BEVs and FCEVs.
Powered by Energy source
PHEV: Two sources
of energy
Generally traditional energy sources (petrol, diesel,
LPG, etc.) with new energy sources (batteries, fuel
cells, solar cells, etc.)
BEV: A battery Electricity from charger.
FCEV: Fuel cells Use stored high pressure hydrogen plus oxygen in
the air to generate electricity.
Table 3 Classification of the three types of NEVs, by Author
Since the current technology of FCEVs is not mature and the proportion is very low (less
than 0.1%), only PHEVs and BEVs need to be considered.
Figure 4 China New Energy Vehicle Sales 2015-2020, graph by Author
Data Source: (www.199it.com, 2020) (www.chyxx.com, 2021)
While China's NEVs have maintained sales of over 1.2 million in each of the last three years,
the growth rate slowed significantly compared to the pre-2018 period, and have even seen a
reverse growth in 2019. The main reason for this is that the government departments such
as the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology decided
247,500
409,000
652,000
984,000 972,000
1,115,000
83,600 98,000 125,000 271,000 232,000 251,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
BEV PHEV Total NEV(China)

to reduce the subsidy rate for NEVs by an average of 50% in that year (www.gov.cn.,2019).
The policy changes are divided into two main points:
(1) Substantial reduction in price subsidies for NEVs.
Subsidy per unit 2018 Subsidy per unit 2019 Difference
XPeng G3 81,675 20,700 -60,975
NIO ES8 67,500 14,720 -52,780
Weltmeister EX5 400 82,500 26,100 -56,400
BYD EV500 82,500 26,100 -56,400
Roewe Marvel X 81,675 20,700 -60,975
(RMB)
Table 4 Comparison of subsidies for some popular NEV models in China of 2018 and 2019, by Author.
(2) Increase in the minimum mileage for which subsidies are available
Subsidy in 2018 Subsidy in 2019 Difference
150-200 Km 15,000 0 -15,000
200-250 Km 24,000 0 -24,000
250-300 Km 34,000 18,000 -16,000
300-400 Km 45,000 18,000 -27,000
Over 400 Km 45,000 25,000 -20,000
(RMB)
Table 5 Comparison of subsidies for different mileages of NEV in China of 2018 and 2019, by Author.
This fact shows that policy is also an important driver and influence on the development of
charging infrastructure.

4.2.2 Policy
At the beginning of the market opening to private capital, the whole industry showed a
semi-market-oriented character. Initially, policy played an important role when NEV
ownership was low and market acceptance was low. The charging infrastructure market
has gradually improved through initial policy support. Due to early planning limitations,
this has resulted in short-term growth in scale outstripping demand, leading to rapid
growth in phase, inconsistent technical standards, and failure to create a good start for
the industry. Three features of the industry in terms of policy direction can be concluded:
(1) Subsidies are tilted towards the operation side.
This shift promotes the further popularization of NEVs and improves the utilization rate
of charging facilities. According to the government document, after the cancellation of
the land subsidy, new subsides will focus on charging, hydrogen refuelling infrastructure
construction and supporting operation services. (www.gov.cn, 2020)
(2) Subsidies are tilted towards high-power DC piles.
DC charging pile are more efficient and more suitable for commercial use in public
places with higher costs requiring more policy support upfront. Since the profitability
process of operating public charging piles, most commercial charging infrastructure are
operated on a PPP model
(3) Encouraging the sharing economy and the communalisation of private piles.
In the future, combined with the renovation of the old residential buildings, multiple
relevant parties should jointly operate charging infrastructure to support a "sharing
model" within the neighbourhoods to address the conflicts faced by private piles. See
[Appendix A1] for relevant policies
Similarly, the Netherlands has a strong subsidy policy for the NEV industry, which has
to some extent made the Netherlands a leader in Europe in terms of the density of
charging facilities. (Neil, 2019) Compared to China's subsidy policy, the Netherlands' is

more flexible and varied. In addition to direct price subsidies to consumers, the
Netherlands also imposes high taxes on high-priced NEVs, thereby limiting prices, and
promotes the trades of used NEVs through incentives. (autovistagroup.com, 2020)
In the implementation of central policies to the local level, the central point for Chinese local
governments in the implementation process is "incentives".
Figure 5 Local Government’s policy-making model, by Author
The local policymakers mobilize relevant resources across society through "incentives" to
promote charging infrastructure. Some have also built local regulatory platforms in response
to market, incorporating charging facility subsidies and testing and certification management
into platform management to strengthen industry regulation. See [Appendix A2] for
charging pile construction targets proposed by various local governments
4.2.3 Capital
Despite the long profit cycle of the charging post industry, it still receives a lot of capital
support. Ever since 2014, the frequency of charging infrastructure receiving financing
Propose charging
infrastructure
construction goals,
related safeguards
Implement the central
ministry's plans
Incentives
Formulate policy
details such as:
local construction
subsidies, charging
service fee caps and
construction
approvals etc.
To
central
government
To
local
companies
Guide
Realize

has increased. The year 2017 coincided with the rapid development of NEVs and
charging infrastructure was also in a period of rapid development. In the same year, the
number of financing events in the industry was the highest ever, generating 95 financing
events in a single year. As of March 2020, there were about 460 financing events for
charging pile enterprises, with more rounds concentrated in angel and A rounds,
accounting for about 30% of the total number of financing events.
Figure 6 Financial Events from 2015-2020 in China, Summarised by Author
The year 2020 is an important milestone, as in March of that year, the charging
infrastructure was officially included in the "New Infrastructure" in a government
document, hence the attention of capital was raised. Huawei, a telecommunications
equipment manufacturer, CATL, a battery storage developer, and Ant Group, an internet
finance company have ventured into the charging modules, charging, and switching
facility operations, and other fields respectively. By the end of 2020, China's energy, real
estate, automobile, transportation, finance, Internet industries and so on were actively
exploring the charging infrastructure market. See [Appendix A3] for Typical financing
cases in the charging infrastructure in 2020. With a wide range of capital entering the
industry, the characteristics of "Internet + charging" have initially taken shape, and
charging has become closer to car sales and travel services. With the accelerated
implementation of the "New Infrastructure" plan, the large-scale construction of
charging piles will bring greater investment to the industry as a whole in the future.

CHAPTER 5: MARKET STATUS
5.1 Introduction
This chapter provides an analysis of the market scale and patterns of the sector through case
studies of the actual state of the charging infrastructure.
5.2 Market Scale
In theory, the trend in the growth of charging piles should have been similar to the trend in
NEV sales growth illustrated in Figure 2. However, the actual growth trend has been very
different as shown in Figure 5.
The Chinese NEV industry, including charging infrastructure, despite the capital investment,
still requires more time to move from the policy-supported stage to a market-oriented one.
One example is that Shanghai has announced that it will no longer issue PHEV licenses from
January 2023, and plans to achieve a 50% share of new individual purchases of BEV by
2025. (shanghai.gov.cn, 2021).It is likely that much of the increase in NEVs is due to the
prohibitive cost of obtaining a fuel vehicle license rather than the subjective willingness.
NEV, one of the core drivers, has already shown signs of decline. With the supportive
6.6
Figure 7 Charging pile ownership and growth rate in mainland China, 2015-2020

policies, the overall charging infrastructure is increasing but still has not reached a "critical
point", thus also makes it difficult for the capital to achieve profits in a short-term.
Around 2015, with the promulgation of incentive policies (www.miit.gov.cn, 2015)
( www.gov.cn, 2015), private capital has entered. With the explosive growth of NEVs on
the road, the early-built AC piles were no longer able to meet the demand. Moreover, the
utilisation rate is quite low. In Shanghai, the utilisation rate of public charging piles is only
about 2% while it needs to be higher than 10% to achieve profitability. (xinhuanet.com, 2020)
The performance and layout of the new charging infrastructure can therefore be adjusted by
policy to improve the usage of charging piles. This is because most of the current non-
functional charging posts are the product of early market sprawl. Since 2017, the growth rate
of vehicle-pile ratio has started to decrease, with its value temporarily staying at 2.93:1 by
the end of 2020.
5.3 Market Pattern
Private users often choose to charge all night and therefore tend to choose AC piles with
lower costs. While the majority of commercially available public charging piles with high
usage are DC piles for the higher requirements for charging speed.
Figure 8 Charging Pile Ownership in Mainland China 2015-2020 (www.chyxx.com, 2021)
58
149
240
387
516
807
8
63
232
477
703
874
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Public（*10^3） Private(*10^3)

From 2015 to 2020, the compound annual growth rate for public charging piles was 69 %,
however, for private ones, this value reached a staggering 155.67%. The construction for
private ones has accelerated in recent years, with the proportion increasing from 12.5%
in 2015 to 51.99% in 2020. This shows that the growth rate of private charging piles has
exceeded that of public ones. The main reason is that the number of private ones grows
more steadily as NEV sales increase because they are determined by owners. Besides,
majority of private AC charging piles were constructed by vehicle companies as a
complementary service. Instead of relying on AC piles for profitability, car companies
are using them to boost NEV sales, however such a service is hardly profitable. In the
United Kingdom, on the other hand, car manufacturers tend to offer charging services in
partnership with supermarkets. Volkswagen, for example, is working with Tesco to
provide free charging at 7kW in supermarkets' premises. The charging characteristics for
office, shop, and school/college were also set as free at 7kW, to reflect other potential
sources of free charging. (Kim, Sivarkumar and Daina, 2020)
Figure 9 China's private charging pile allocation rate 2016-2020, by Author
By the end of 2020, China's private charging pile allocation rate was still low, at 70.16%,
but it keeps growing in recent years. (Everbright Securities, 2021) In contrast, DC
charging piles with better charging performance, which are more capable and better
suited to public use and commercialisation, have fallen on hard times.
The development of charging infrastructure in China has also shown a strong regional
feature with a significant agglomeration effect. Public charging piles are concentrated in
the eastern coastal region. By June 2020, the top ten provinces and regions accounted for

73.2% of charging infrastructure holdings and most of them are eastern provinces with
coast.
Figure 10 Figure Distribution of Public Charging Piles in China, by Author
Figure 11 The top 5 Provinces/cities took up almost 50%, by Author

The reasons are twofold: Firstly, the economic development in the eastern coastal regions
far exceeds that of the western areas, meaning that purchasing power and production
capacity of NEVs as well as carbon emission standards are higher in eastern provinces and
cities. Secondly, the western regions are lagging the eastern urban areas in terms of
construction and city planning including charging infrastructure. Given the small base level
of NEVs and the negative geographical factors, the growth rate is slower than in the east.
In the industry chain, due to the technical threshold of suppliers is not high, product
differentiation is thus not obvious. The service platform is dependent on the operator to
provide ancillary services. Therefore, midstream operation has become the core link.
Figure 12 Charging infrastructure industry chain，by Author
The operations sector also attracts participants from two other sectors. For example, State
Grid, which provides electricity, is currently also the leading operator of charging services
in China. Such charging operator as TELD also build its own service platform.
Operators are responsible for the construction, operation and maintenance, meaning a large
amount of capital expenditure is incurred upfront. As each operator has its assets, most

private enterprises were not willing to share data in the early stage, resulting in low
interoperability. Operators with weaker capabilities are gradually withdrawing, leaving only
a limited number of competitive operators to divide up most of the market.
Charging
operators:
TELD,
Starcharge…
Occupy a position in the field of equipment
manufacturing.
Open up NEV charging business.
Electricity
suppliers:
State Grid Possesses a strong financial strength with
extensive power grid infrastructure as its backing.
Vehicle
manufactures:
SAIC Anyo,
Tesla,
BYD…
Operate charging piles to match car sales, with
their own self-built charging piles to attract
customers.
Table 6 Three main types of typical operators, by Author
In July 2018, Tellus Power Green Technology, the very first charging pile company to be
listed on an official stock exchange, announced its delisting. After a month, Rongyi Electric
Technology declared its dissolution due to the company's losses in Shenzhen. In the
following year, Putevio listed 55% of its shares for over six months with no one took over.
As of May 2020, eight operators with more than 10,000 charging facilities in China
occupying 88.9% of the national total. The market share of the top 3 is shown in the figure
below.
33.70%
40.70%
31.90% 28.70%
28.40% 17.60%
14.60% 17%
13.50%
11.90%
14.20%
23.30%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
2016 2017 2018 2019
TELD State Grid Starcharge2
Figure 13 CR3 market share of China's charging pile industry, 2016-2019. By Author.
Data Source: (Qianzhan Industry Research Institute 2020)

Smaller operators are also supplementing the industry. Starters are likewise impacting the
share of the top players, with industry CR3 falling from 75.52% in 2016 to 69.03% in
2019.Though there are a large number of starter operators, most cannot build their own
information platforms.
5.4 Challenges
For companies, the difficulty of making a profit has become the biggest constraint on
their development:
For users, the inconvenience makes the charging facilities hard to serve as real
“infrastructure”:
Blind investment
The early investment without
research around 2015 has
caused a lot of “zombie piles”
which located in
unreasonable locations. Their
maintenance costs have far
outweighed the revenue they
can bring in
Low utilization
After calculation the average
power of a single pile is
29.2kW in 2019. As a result,
the average daily usage time
of a single pile is only 0.93
hours per day, with a usage
rate of 3.9%.
Single profit mode
At this stage, the revenue of
charging infrastructure
operators is mainly from
charging service fees, which
can hardly offset the initial
investment in pile
construction and operation
and maintenance costs.
Low charging speed
By 2020, AC piles were still
dominant public piles in
China. The time spent in the
charging process is high. The
occupation time also makes
the charging service
inefficient so that more piles
need to be built to meet the
demand.
Asset Management issue
The pile foundations are
prone to failure and damage
and are also difficult to repair
and maintain due to different
installation and construction
standards. Interfaces are
generally different and not
common to each other.
Difficulty to find
The distribution of charging
piles does not always match
the distribution of NEVs. Let
alone the fact that public
charging piles are often
occupied by petrol vehicles.
Figure 14 Challenges for Companies, By Author
Figure 15 Challenges for Users, By Author

Overall, it seems that the blind, planless construction of piles as well as the disorderly
competition in the early stages has led to the continuation of the above problems to the
present. The degradation of the user experience is further exacerbated by the fact that
operators work in isolation from each other and do not share their services platform. The
pace of public pile investment and construction is also beginning to diverge. See
[Appendix B] for detailed information.
5.5 Summary
The market size of China's charging infrastructure, although slowing down, is still quite
promising in the context of mainstream policies. The western region still has room for
starters while in the east, competition between large companies in the operational segment
will remain the dominant trend. Considering the potential risks, operation costs, incomes as
well as industrial codes and technical issues should receive more attention. For competitors
in the industry, technological innovation is undoubtedly a top priority. (Wu, Song and Xu,
2018) Meanwhile, the government must also pay attention to the improvement of regulations
especially for tax policies because PPP model will remain the mainstream, due to the high
capital investment requirements and the long profit cycle of charging infrastructure projects
upfront. This is crucial for future operational management as it directly determines the
integrity of the pre-funding chain.
Current research on the asset management of charging infrastructure in China is in a state of
limbo. In the author's search for information, no government department or State Grid has
published a set of asset management specifications or case studies related to charging
infrastructure. The authors speculate that due to the disorderly expansion of the charging pile
market in the early stages, there is no uniform standard for equipment model specifications.
It would also be difficult for China to even emulate the European and American experience
due to the different standards as shown in the table below:

China Europe and United States
Interface Standards GB/T 18487 SAE J1772,
CCS Combo
CHAdeMO
Supercharger (TESLA)
Vehicle-Pile
Communication Protocols
GB/T 27930 SAE J2931
ISO 15118
CHAdeMO
Orderly Charging Support In Progress (Planning) YES
Roaming Agreement NO Several countries*
Information Platform In Progress
(Construction)
NOBIL, Zap Map etc.
Table 7 Comparison of charging standards and interoperability between China and other countries, by Author
Several countries*: For example, the Netherlands has been promoting charging roaming
based on the OCPI protocol (Ferwerda et al., 2018), which allows users to plug and charge
at any public charging pile in most Europe countries without registered to any operator. Not
only is the protocol widely used in most European countries, it is also recognised in countries
such as the US, Canada, South Africa and India and is constantly being expanded.
In addition, charging infrastructure generally has a life cycle of 6-9 years, and with the rapid
iteration of battery, vehicle and grid technologies, current investments in charging piles may
become "stranded assets", which refers to the assets that have suffered from unanticipated
or premature write-downs, devaluations or conversion to liabilities. (Caldecott, 2016) The
investment in hardware for stranded assets is undoubtedly a greater financial loss. These two
points make universal, sustainable asset management plan for charging infrastructure
difficult to achieve.

CHAPTER 6: BUSINESS MODELS
6.1 Porter Five Forces Analysis
For the core segment of the market, the charging operating companies, I have analysed them
based on the Porter Five Forces model.
Figure 16 Porter Five Forces Model
Industry Rivalry
The competition in the industry is currently fierce, as the quality difference in charging
services is minimal and there is little switching cost to the consumer. While the Matthew
effect is also evident, with three charging operators TELD, State Grid and Starcharge already
accounting for close to 70% of the market as mentioned in the chapter 5.
Bargaining power of suppliers
Suppliers can be divided into two categories. One category is manufacturers who produce
charging equipment. This industry is relatively mature, products are mostly fixed
specifications, competition is fierce and overall bargaining power is weak. The other supplier
Industry
Rivalry
Bargaining
power of
suppliers
Threat of
substitutes
Bargaining
power of
buyers
Threat of
new
entrants

is the organisations who provide the site for the charging infrastructure, they not directly
form part of the chain, but rather appears as a "complement" to it. As all land in mainland
China is under public ownership, no commercial organisation or individual has the right to
own land, only the right to use it for limited years, which is transferable. As a result, such
site providers as property agencies, managers of public buildings or even the government
itself tend to have a strong and ever-growing bargaining power for there are only a limited
number of geographic locations within an urban area that are suitable for planning the
charging piles within a certain period of time.
Bargaining power of buyers
Purchasers generally refer to purchasers of charging services, of which there are of course
some private purchasers of charging posts. Due to the homogeneity and frequency of
charging services and the low price per visit, customers are very price sensitive and have a
high bargaining power. A more typical situation is that car companies such as Tesla and NIO
offer private charging piles as a bonus with the purchase of an NEV, making it almost
impossible to make a direct profit from charging.
Threat of substitutes
Because of the specific nature of electrical energy, the threat of alternatives is almost non-
existent at present due to the current technical barriers to energy sources such as hydrogen,
biofuels, solar energy, etc. and the difficulty of applying them on vehicles on a large scale.
The only possible threat is from gas stations, because a large proportion of NEVs are still
hybrids. But with the current developments, it is almost a certainty that electricity will
completely replace fuel power in the civil transport sector.
Threat of new entrants
Although the barriers of technology and knowledge are not too high for entrants, the
prerequisite investment requirements are high and the payback period is long, so the
barriers to entry are still high, their threat is low.

6.2 Business Models of Charging Operation
The business models can be divided into three categories in response to the market
characteristics of charging operations.
6.2.1 Operator-led
In this model, the charging operator completes the investment, construction, operation,
and maintenance, providing charging services to users in an operational management
model. This model is more market oriented in terms of service content and scenario
layout thus it can effectively promote competition in the industry.
Figure 17 Charging operator business model, by Author.
At present, most of the operators' revenue comes from the service fee. Users are
extremely sensitive to the cost of charging, so with increasing competition, it is very
difficult to raise charging service fees. Improving the utilization rate of individual piles
is, therefore, an important issue to address.

6.2.2 Vehicle Manufacturer-led
Among the models of pile building led by vehicle manufacturer, there are two main
categories: independent pile building and cooperative pile building. In the two different
models, both the car companies and the pile companies are looking for a chance for profit.
"Charging" is more like a lever instead of a good business for NEV enterprises. Manufacturer
uses charging piles as an after-sales service to provide a better customers' experience. In this
model, the construction and maintenance costs for are high, while the income is only the
difference in electricity price and service fees. These piles are only for fixed customers who
purchased the NEVs from the specific brands, meaning that utilization rate and profitability
is quite low. Apparently, self-built pile has high requirements on the capital and the number
of users of the NEV enterprises, this model is thus more suitable for the host manufacturers
with a large number of customers and stable business. Only Tesla and Nio are still building
their piles in China.
6.2.3 Third-party Service Platform-led
The third-party platforms have emerged from the rising interconnection situation
within this industry who are generally not directly involved in the investment and
construction of charging infrastructure but make use of their capabilities of resource
integration to connect the Operators to their own SaaS platform. Through operating
the relatively low-cost virtual assets such as data, networks, UI design etc, the third-
party Service Platform helps to better connect charging infrastructure providers and
users.
Figure 18 Business Model of Third-Party Platform, by Author

The revenue of this model comes from the sharing of service fees between the third-party
charging service platform and charging operators, as well as value-added services based
on big data mining, so there will be some conflict of interest with operators.
6.3 New Proposed Business Model
Each of the three business models has its own distinctive features. Since interconnection
has become the industry consensus, changing the mindset to seek cooperation between
different groups is a more reasonable operation idea in the future. Among them, the
operator has the most mature ability for the construction, installation and maintenance
of piles, while the car manufacturer is able to provide the stable customer flow as well
as key data about the charging process of NEVs. The cooperative pile-building model
between NEV companies and operators can continue to form a deeper development,
especially from the perspective of technology. As for the third-party platforms, they can
continue to leverage their strengths in consolidating resources and managing virtual
assets by providing diversion and site selection service based on big data to improve the
comprehensive utilization of the charging infrastructure. Since the platform is probably
the only one who can access the data from different operators, it is also able to help to
advance the standardisation process of charging infrastructure. Besides, the one-stop
service and online management can certainly reduce the cost operation and maintenance.

Key Partners
Equipment
manufacturers;
Retailers;
Government;
State Grid;
NEV owners;
Key Activities
O&M;
Charging Service;
Parking Service;
Advertising
Service;
Data Analysing;
Information
Sharing;
Value Propositions
Charging; Parking;
Private Pile-building;
Pile-finding and
navigation;
GHG reduction;
Energy preservation;
Government goal;
NEV and charging
data using;
Customer
Relationships
Self-service of
charging;
Personal
assistance on
pile building
and repairing;
Maintenance
of data;
Customer
Segments
NEV owners;
Bus Company;
Taxi Company;
Planning
department in
government;
Research
Organisations;
Key Resources
Charging
facilities;
NEV customers;
Permissions;
Supportive
Policies;
Channels
Social Media;
NEV
company;
Higher usage
rate;
Cost Structure
Cost of equipment and facility;
Construction and installation; O&M;
Data analysing; Technology Research;
Electricity cost;
Revenue Streams
Investment from government and other companies;
From charging and pile-building service and valet
service etc;
From advertising on the piles or stations;
From data service for other organisations.
Figure 19 Business Model Canvas for the Cooperation, by Author
This new business model requires deeper corporation between the three groups, it is still
necessary to clarify the interesting relationship and responsibility at beginning. Value-added
service is the key point to focus, though the new model offers some revenue streams, the risk
of slow return of capital remains. Therefore, government subsidies will still be the saving
grace of the charging infrastructure industry and the PPP mode will still be mainstream.

6.4 Recommendations for Government
Since the mixed ownership of charging infrastructure for NEVs is advancing, besides the
proper business model, the crucial leading role played by the government should not be
overlooked either. In the whole life cycle of PPP projects, design and refinement related to
tax policies has yet to be optimized. Prior to the implementation of the new tax regime, the
existing one should be followed to strengthen policy adjustment during the life cycle of PPP
projects, beginning with the ways to fund the initial stage and the establishment of
organizational forms, and continuing to project operation, income distribution and assets
transfer at the agreed end of the project. (Yang, Long and Li,2018)
Therefore, the following suggestions regarding taxation can be made:
(1) Mitigate the tax distortion effects
The main implementation is to apply the tax rebate system. Apart from the enhancing the
tax support for PPP project, the tax administration and collection model should be unified to
reduce discretion.
(2) Set up a differentiated and dynamic tax incentive policy
Firstly, China can refer to other Asian countries and set up tax exemption period for PPP
projects. For example, Thailand has an eight-year tax-free period for PPP infrastructure
projects (Dusadee and José
, 2021). Secondly, China can reduce the corporate income tax
rate. For example, Vietnam offers a 10% corporate income tax rate for the entire duration of
a PPP project. (Ernst & Young, 2020) It allows companies to speed up the depreciation thus
the depreciation period of investment assets will be close to the investment period.
Figure 20 Life-Cycle of PPP projects, by Author
Identification Preparation Procurement Implementation Transfer
Tax Issues

As shown above, since the tax issue lies in the last two phases of the project, the turnover
tax should gain more attention, especially in trade link that transfers assets between capital
and government. Meanwhile, the preferential policies should be progressively levelling and
it is necessary to retain the exit mechanism so as to fully allow the market mechanism to
function once the market has been perfected. To stimulate social capital, in addition to
enhanced tax support, incentives can also be enhanced to reduce costs and risks, thereby
improving the return on investment.
(3) Enrich the levels of the policy system
In the policy system for PPP projects, tax policies should be synergised with banks, finance,
administration and industry to promote orderly development, thus achieving a win-win
situation for both social capital and government. In addition, the use of land for new charging
infrastructure should also be based on financial support, and a credit platform dedicated to
funding PPP projects could be considered.
Improving the fiscal and taxation policies related to charging infrastructure PPP projects and
encouraging social capital to participate in the construction will have an important positive
impact on promoting the industry development and the administrative level of the
government.

CHAPTER 7: TECHNOLOGY EVALUATION
7.1 Introduction
With the goal of profitability, this industry must transform from a purely territorial
competition to a refined operation and a similar trend has already appeared. The author argue
that the charging infrastructure industry will show two major technical features, i.e.
Interoperability and Vehicle Network Synergy.
7.2 Interoperability
Interoperability means to realize the three-way interconnection of NEVs, charging
infrastructure, and operators. This implies a deeper interfacing, i.e. enabling the
manipulation, booking, monitoring and billing of other manufacturers' charging piles
regardless the NEVs’ model. This technical feature is also necessary to implement the
new business model in Chapter 6.
The technical challenge at the moment is that the hardware is not highly standardised so
that standardise data from underlying architecture is quite hard to realise. Additionally,
the NEV's own charging data and battery management system need to be improved as
well. This model may also encounter some business resistance from companies due to
its disruption of free market competition to a certain extent. However, from a macro
perspective, such a layout is more beneficial for both consumers and the power industry.
Therefore, the author forecasts that since a few large companies, including state-owned
enterprises, have already control the vast majority of the market in Tier-1 cities at present,
it is likely that national companies will take the lead in this interoperability action with
its political support, at least start the trial in a small area, e.g. the central area of a major
city.
Moreover, many large companies are not totally resistant to this model and in fact some
of them have already started working together. For instance, at the end of 2019, Xiaopeng
Auto and NIO Power started a cooperation on charging business including

interconnection of charging pile distribution data and payment process. (xinhuanet.com,
2020) In July 2020, TELD also claimed that it would fully access the information of
Starcharge, State Grid and Southern Grid, enabling full sharing from site search,
navigation, charging to payment process. These four top companies (CR4) have covered
70% of charging piles in China today. (autoinfo.org.cn,2020)
Another thing to note is that the third-party service platform will become the hub of charging
infrastructure’s interoperability as it undertakes the function of data exchange, which is the
core of realising shared charging services. Third-party service platform UniEv, established
in 2018, has now accessed over 480,000 charging facilities from 140 operators, accounting
for around 85% of the national total. 270,000 of these have achieved deeper interfacing.
This Interoperability process can be summarised in a four-stage model, corresponding the
four goals.
7.3 Vehicle-Network-Synergy
This concept refers to a model in which NEVs interact with the grid, where the emphasis is
on rational guidance and management of the charging behaviour of NEVs on the part of the
grid, rather than NEVs unilaterally receiving electricity from the grid. This model relies
heavily on a key technology, V2G.
Smart City:Interconnection between Smart Grid and Smart City
Transaction:Unified, fast, cross-platform payments
Data:Shared Pile parameters, real-time status, location data and
operator information.
Hardware: Interconnection of the physical interfaces
Uniformity in standards among manufacturers
Figure 21 Interoperability process model, by Author

7.3.1 V2G
The V2G, or Vehicle-to-Grid, reduces the load on the grid as well as the environmental
impacts through the action of storing the power in NEVs’ batteries and discharge it back to
the grid at peak hours. (Sovacool et al., 2018) By increasing the back-up capacity and
regulating frequency, the stability of the grid will be greatly enhanced by V2G, facilitating
the entry of intermittent solar or wind energy as well. (Noel et al., 2019)
Figure 22 A simple structure of V2G system (Bibak and Tekiner-Moğulkoç, 2021)
In addition, due to the electricity price varies during a day, NEV owners can sell the
electricity stored in the NEV batteries at peak hours to make profit. For example, in the
V2G project Parker in Danmark, each NEV can provide the owner with up to €2,300 per
year. (Bach Andersen et al.,2019) The economic advantages of V2G in China are not yet
evident due to the small peak-to-valley tariff difference and the relatively weak range of
NEVs. The commercial implementation of V2G requires the synergistic scale and
technical maturity.
V2G requires significant capital investment as it is essentially a mutual information, power
and financial net between the grid, operators and NEVs. Therefore, a unified platform must
be established to interface each link in the V2G system, as the author has mentioned the
importance of Interoperability and the third-party-platform. Besides, the NEVs connected to
NEV
charging
cord
meter
power grid
Bi-directional flow
of power

the V2G system will need to be equipped with additional meters and plug-in connectors,
which will also increase the investment requirements. According to an analysis (Su et
al.,2012), the cost of high-capacity battery for an NEV is about 35,000 to 30,000 USD.
Hence there are lots of manufactures that have to use the cheaper substitute with poor
performance to make their NEV products affordable. Unfortunately, they are not quite
suitable for the V2G project. Moreover, V2G is essential a radial distribution system, which
means higher requirements on protection devices of grids. (Herná
ndez, Ruiz-Rodriguez and
Jurado, 2017) There are already a number of V2G projects around the world, see[Appendix
C] for more information.
The uncertainty of NEVs and renewable energy is also one of the obstacles to the V2G. Even
if the market could unify the technical standards for NEVs and charging piles, it would not
be able to know the mileage and charging and discharging habits of each NEV user, and
these uncertainties would have a negative impact on the stability of V2G operations.
Similarly, stochasticity in solar and wind power generation is also a negative factor.
Therefore, in addition to V2G technology, "orderly charging" is also needed to achieve
vehicle-network synergy.
7.3.2 Orderly Charging
The table below compares the differences between orderly charging and disorderly charging.
Disorderly charging Orderly charging
Charging at anytime, anywhere and at
random
Using smart control and economic levers to
regulate the charging timing and power of
NEVs
The charging peaks of decentralised
dedicated charging piles are superimposed
on the base load, making the peak-to-valley
Enable NEVs to be charged using the valley
capacity of the distribution network.

difference larger and increasing the
maximum load on the distribution network.
May cause overloading of distribution
network lines and local under-voltage.
Smoothing out load fluctuations, reducing
peak-to-valley differences and reducing
peak loads.
Table 8 Comparison of the characteristics of orderly charging and disorderly charging, by Author
According to relevant studies, in a disorderly charging scenario, the peak load in the areas
operated by the State Grid will increase by 153 million kW by 2030, equivalent to 13.1% of
the total peak load. The price guidance is expected to reduce the charging load by around
30%, which is expected to fall to more than 50% if supplemented by planned or real-time
control of charging times and charging power. (State Grid, 2018) In terms of technical
difficulty, there are three main ways to achieve vehicle-network-synergy.
Figure 23 Three methods to achieve Vehicle-Network-Synergy, by Author.
Price guidance：
• The tariff is used to guide customers to charge in
the "price-valley". The aim is to avoid peak loads
and direct low valley charging.
Smart Charging:
• To automatically optimise the timing and power of
charging according to the load status of the area
and the charging status of the NEVs. The aim is to
reduce the pressure on local capacity, to make full
use of valley power and to increase the efficiency
of equipment utilisation.
V2G:
• To enable NEVs to discharge to the grid and
automatically optimise the charging and
discharging timing, power and flow direction.The
aim is to enhance the local optimisation capability
through discharging and at the same time to obtain
the peak-valley differential revenue.

Until V2G can be implemented on a large scale, some of the effects of the vehicle network
collaboration concept can be achieved through price guidance and smart charging.
Figure 24 A framework for the vehicle-network-synergy mode, by Author.

CHAPTER 8: CASE ANALYSIS
8.1 Introduction
This chapter provides the basis for the vehicle-network synergy as well as the charging pile
management through quantitative analysis of real residential cases.
8.2 Case A: Vehicle-Network-Synergy
The need for vehicle-network-synergy stems from the potential negative impact of the
increasing number of private charging piles on the grid and on the power supply service:
Figure 25 Impact of Vehicle-Network-Synergy, by Author
A residential community of 2000 households is selected as an example. Assuming that no
residential electricity capacity will be taken up, 1000 private-use charging piles are allocated
and the capacity for each charging pile is 7 kVA. The simultaneous rate is set at 0.6.
After simulation, under the disorderly charging scenario, the charging load is mostly
concentrated between 18:00 and 1:00 the next day, which is superimposed on the evening
load peak, resulting in a load spike.

Figure 26 Hours of use for common private charging piles, by Author.
The maximum active power rises from 3500kW to 7466.67kW, the peak-to-valley difference
rises from 1866.7kW to 5716.7kW and the load standard deviation rises from 522.7kW to
1708.2kW. In the orderly charging scenario, the maximum active power only rises to
4333.3kW and the peak-to-valley difference and load standard deviation only rise to
2000kW and 705.5kW. The peak-to-valley difference and the load standard difference only
rise to 2000kW and 705.5kW. (State Grid, 2018)
Figure 27 Simulated Load Curves (State Grid, 2018)
Basic Load
Disorderly Charging
Orderly Charging

Disorderly charging Orderly charging
Maximum Basic Load 3500kW 3500kW
Maximum active power 3500kW to 7466.67kW 3500kW to 4333.3kW
Difference 3966.67 kW 833.3 kW
Distribution Network
Capacity
7500 kW 4500 kW
Average load on the
distribution network
3772.222 kW 3772.222 kW
Table 9 Simulated electricity consumption data. (State Grid, 2018)
In orderly charging，the expansion capacity can be reduced:
(7466.67 − 3500) − (4333.3 − 3500) = 3133.33 𝑘𝑉𝐴
The disorderly charging scenario requires the installation of an additional transformer with
a capacity of 4000 KVA, costing approximately 400,000 RMB. The ring network cabinet is
approximately 100,000 RMB. In the orderly charging scenario, only one transformer with a
capacity of 1000 KVA needs to be installed, which costs 100,000 RMB. The ring cabinet is
approximately 50,000 RMB. Savings in grid construction costs:
400,000 + 100,000 − (100,000 + 50,000) = 350,000 𝑅𝑀𝐵
Resource utilisation in the disorderly charging scenario:
3772.222
7500
= 50.3%
while in the orderly charging scenario:
3772.222
4500
= 83.8%
The resource utilisation rate has increased significantly from 50.3% to 83.8%.

In the orderly charging scenario, the NEVs can operate in V2G mode, feeding back power
to the grid. So the maximum active power fed back from this residence:
1000 ∗ 0.6 ∗ 7 = 4200 𝑘𝑊
Assuming a battery capacity of 100kWh and an average residual charge of 60% charge of
60% during discharge, 60kWh of power can be fed back to the grid, i.e. 14.3 hours at 4.2MW,
so the incident support capacity is 60MWh.
The maximum load factor of the distribution network in disorderly charging mode is:
7466.667/7500 = 99.6%
while in orderly charging mode it is only:
4333.33/7500 = 57.8%
The Load rate of the distribution network has been significantly reduced.
In V2G mode, the maximum discharge capacity of the residential community is 4200kW
and the maximum value basic load is 3500kW:
4200/3500 = 1.2 > 1
This means that in the event of emergency, the NEVs can be used as a power source to
supply the other loads in the community.
The greater the standard deviation of the load, the greater the frequency regulation burden
on the grid, which can easily cause frequency fluctuations and voltage fluctuations, affecting
the quality of power. In the orderly charging scenario, the standard deviation is only 705.5
kW, a reduction of 1002.7 kW compared to the disorderly charging scenario, which greatly
enhances the power quality.
Although the orderly charging approach is still in the early stages of scaling up, some
developed countries have started to systematically encourage the rollout of orderly charging.

For example, the UK government has stipulated that from 2019, only charging piles that
support orderly charging will be eligible for government subsidy support. (GOV.UK, 2019)
In the Netherlands, the Municipality of Amsterdam has launched a massive charging pile
upgrade programme, with upgrading 1/3 of the city's public charging piles to support smart
and orderly charging features. (insideevs.com, 2019)
8.3 Case B: Charging Pile Management
The Nanmencang Community (NC for short) located in central Beijing was first built in
1980s and consists of several apartment buildings. New parking area was constructed inside
the community constituted by 4 sections, A, B, C and D. All areas are equipped with
intelligent parking systems now, which are supervised and operated by the management team
under the community’s property company. According to the rules set by the community,
owners are supported to apply for the purchase of parking spaces，with the remaining
parking spaces being leased out according to the relevant standards . As at the end of 2020,
33 parking spaces have been sold (24.1%) and 78 have been leased (56.9%), and currently,
26 (19%) parking spaces are still not leased or sold.
As of the round of applications for the parking spaces at the end of 2020, only one EV vehicle
owner has applied for the installation of a charging post with a capacity of 7Kw for his own
use after purchasing a parking space. The application process for private charging piles is
shown in the diagram below:
Figure 28 Application process for private charging piles
Owner:
Apply for private charging pile
Property Management Team:
Sign contract and collect deposit
Power Provider:
Propose and implement a power
supply plan
NEV Company:
Construct and install the
charging pile

The power is charged according to the standard of urban co-metered users in the Beijing
residential electricity tariff (BMCDR, 2020) for separate metering.
In the new round of applications for parking spaces as at the end of June, 2021, there were
two owners of NEVs among the new owners applying for purchased parking spaces in the
district, while there were no NEV owners among the new applicants of leased parking spaces.
In this project, NC is not new built, nor is it an alteration or extension of a building for the
renovation of 2015 is mainly for parking areas with little impact on residential properties.
Therefore, according to the regulation issued by General Office of the State Council of the
People's Republic of China (2014), the new car parks in NC can be constructed without
implementing the requirements for the allocation of charging facilities to match and the
allocation ratio of reserved charging facilities in the regulation. This means there is a place
for a more flexible management.
At present, a total of two new owners of EV are eligible to apply for fixed parking spaces
and both of them meet the requirements to apply for the installation of their own charging
piles. Therefore, two more the installation of private charging piles can be expected in short-
terms. Depending on the model of the EV they purchased, a total of 2 AC charging posts
with shall be installed, with each capacity of 7 Kw. The private charging piles that have been
installed were built by EV companies. Therefore, the car management team of the property
is not obliged to maintain or repair them.
The pile ratio of charging facilities refers to the ratio of charging piles to the number of
parking spaces. In the process of reserving charging capacity to meet the charging demand
of future development, the pile ratios of electric vehicle charging piles were collated with
reference to several government documents, as shown in Table.
Parking for: Pile ratio for parking
Equipped Reserved
New general buildings ≥ 10% ≥ 10%

Renovated, extended buildings ≥ 5% ≥ 10%
New Government and office buildings ≥ 25%
New Commercial buildings (including Park
&Ride)
≥ 15%
New Other public utilities such as hospitals
and schools
≥ 20%
New residential building 100% or Maintaining installation
conditions for 100%
Old public buildings ≥ 10%
Central State Authorities and their affiliated
institutions in Beijing
≥ 30%
Major state-owned company in Beijing ≥ 30%
Table 10 Number of parking spaces required for NEVs, by Author.
Data Source: (www.gov,cn, 2015) (caam.org.cn, 2017)
Referring to table above, at least 10% of pile ratio should be set for NC. To increase the
revenue of the car park, it is recommended that after meeting the development demand of
the community’s own EV charging, some areas could be set up for independent installation
of charging piles and open to the EV owners from outside the community. At present, section
D has the least number of parking spaces, only 7, and it is proposed to open for public.
Apart from the charging service fees, the public also have to pay parking fees to the NC car
park when using the charging facilities. For open public charging piles in D section, it is
suggested to consider using DC fast charging piles. To reduce the impact on the grid, it is
also recommended to consider DC charging piles with a capacity of 30 kW.
In addition, to reduce the input cost of charging pile investors, according to the relevant
Regulation issued by the BMCDR, if the car parks allocated to dedicated buildings have the

conditions for opening charging facilities to the public, the investment subsidy funds can be
applied for them, which means that BMCDR shall support 30% of the construction cost with
government’s fixed asset subsidy. (BMCDR, 2018)
The Implementation of Management Plan：
In order to complete the management plan, the following parameters need to be considered:
Parameter Symbol
Number of charging piles N
Full-load charging efficiency of chargers η
Motor simultaneity factor 𝐾𝑡
Transformer load factor 𝑀
Power distribution capacity of a single charger 𝑃
𝑠
Transformer capacity 𝑆𝑡
Calculated capacity of installed charging piles 𝑆𝑐𝑎𝑙
Demand coefficient 𝐾𝑥
Calculated capacity of a single charging post 𝑆
Power factor of charger cos(θ)
Table 11 Key Parameters of the Management Plan, by Author
(1) Reserved power
Considering that private cars are currently driven within 50 km per day, the charging interval
is 1-2 days, and charging is mainly carried out during night at the private piles. Therefore,
taking into account the Design Specifications for Civil Building Electrical Vehicles Charging
Facility Construction (2015), the motor simultaneity factor of the charging piles in this case
can be appropriately reduced to 0.7, while the demand coefficient factor for 14 private AC
piles is 0.55 and for 7 public DC piles is 0.5. The full-load charging efficiency of chargers
is 0.85, the power factor is 0.8 and the transformer load factor is 0.8.

Charging pile power:
𝑃𝐴𝐶 = 7 𝑘𝑊
𝑃𝐷𝐶 = 30 𝑘𝑊
Number of piles:
𝑁𝐴𝐶 = 14
𝑁𝐷𝐶 = 7
Calculated capacity of a single charging pile：
𝑆𝐴𝐶 =
𝑃𝐴𝐶
𝜂 × cos (θ)
=
7
0.85 × 0.8
= 10.29 𝑘𝑣𝑎𝑟
𝑆𝐷𝐶 =
𝑃𝐷𝐶
𝜂 × cos (θ)
=
30
0.85 × 0.8
= 44.12 𝑘𝑣𝑎𝑟
Charging posts should be reserved with a capacity of:
𝑆𝑐𝑎𝑙−𝐴𝐶 = 𝐾𝑡 × 𝑁𝐴𝐶 × 𝐾𝑥𝐴𝐶 × 𝑆𝐴𝐶 = 0.7 × 14 × 0.55 × 10.29 = 55.46 𝑘𝑣𝑎𝑟
𝑆𝑐𝑎𝑙−𝐷𝐶 = 𝐾𝑡 × 𝑁𝐷𝐶 × 𝐾𝑥𝐷𝐶 × 𝑆𝐷𝐶 = 0.7 × 7 × 0.5 × 44.12 = 108.09 𝑘𝑣𝑎𝑟
𝑆𝑐𝑎𝑙 = 𝑆𝑐𝑎𝑙−𝐴𝐶 + 𝑆𝑐𝑎𝑙−𝐷𝐶 = 55.46 + 108.09 = 163.55 𝑘𝑣𝑎𝑟
The transformer should be reserved with a capacity of
𝑆𝑡 =
𝑆𝑐𝑎𝑙
𝑀
=
163.55
0.8
= 204.44 𝑘𝑣𝑎𝑟
Therefore, a total of 204.44 𝐾𝑣𝑎𝑟 of electricity is required to be reserved in the community
car park.

(2) Establishing operational leadership
For this case, the author proposes that the charging pile company and the car park
management jointly invest in the construction of the public charging pile, with NC providing
the site and the charging pile company providing the infrastructure installation and operation.
In addition to the parking fee income, the service fee income should be shared in proportion
to the amount of capital contribution. This solves both the capital investment and the problem
of future equipment maintenance. Compared to the NC’s property company, the operation
of charging pile enterprises is significantly more efficient and reliable.
As the number of charging piles in NC car parks is small, the operational risk is low. The
author therefore suggests that public charging piles should be led by charging pile enterprises
rather than government departments or electricity suppliers. In this way, by bringing in social
capital, the interests of the car park management and the charging pile companies can be
activated. In the long run, communities can be used as the basic unit, which can further
accelerate the scale of charging infrastructure.
(3) Expanding the profit model
In this case, though both the property company and the charging pile operator gain benefit,
considering the technology and security, later one should oversee the professional
maintenance. As for the daily-check and test, these jobs belong to the management team of
the car park. In addition, if NC opens the charging piles in Section D as public charging
infrastructure and accesses the municipal public data and information platform, it can apply
for operational incentive assessment and receive financial subsidies to a certain extent in
accordance with the Implementation Rules of the 2019-2020 Beijing Municipal Electric
Vehicle Social Public Charging Facilities Operational Assessment and Reward. (BMCUM,
2020)

8.4 Summary
In the first case, analysis of simulated data from the State Grid for both orderly and disorderly
charging scenarios shows that orderly charging reduces the load on the grid, improves energy
efficiency and reduces construction costs. The stability of households' electricity
consumption could also be improved after V2G is applied.
In the second case, a management plan is proposed for the expected load of charging piles
in the community, based on the community's regulations. By promoting the
commercialisation of private charging piles in the community, the usage of charging
facilities is increased and profitability channels are expanded.

CHAPTER 9: DISCUSSION
9.1 Introduction
By summarising and analysing the material, this chapter provides a forecast of the future of
China's charging infrastructure industry and evaluates the exploration of management
models based on case studies.
9.2 Expected Market Scale
In the long run, the market size of the charging infrastructure still has a lot of room for
development. Although NEV sales growth has slowed in the last two years due to the
epidemic and the saturation of the motor vehicle market on the eastern seaboard, an
exponential function fitting the data of recent years shows that an inflection point in sales
growth is likely to be imminent around 2022:
Figure 29 Prediction on the NEV sales in China, by Author
As shown in the graph, if disregard the anomalous growth of sales data in 2018 and use the
exponential function to fit, the coefficient of determination reaches above 0.95, according to
331
507
777
1206 1367
331
507
777
1256 1206 1367
y = 283.7e0.2801x
R² = 0.9565
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
New Energy Vehicle Sales in China (*10^3)

this analysis, the NEV sales in China will reach 6.1026 million in 2025. This result can be
verified in another report which states that China's motor vehicle sales are expected to reach
30 million in 2025, of which NEVs will account for 20%, or 6 million. (Wei, 2021)
Figure 30 Prediction on the Car-Pile Ratio in China, by Author
A fitted analysis of the car-pile ratio data shows that the ratio is expected to reach 2:1 by
2025. This result can also be verified in other reports. (nev.ofweek.com, 2020) This means
a market that will continue to grow over the next five years. Looking further ahead, the future
market size for charging infrastructure is more promising than it currently appears. Chen
Qingtai, Director of the Enterprise Research Institute of State Council, has predicted that by
2030, China's NEV sales will exceed 15 million and ownership will exceed 80 million, with
64.8 million pure electric vehicles by then. (gas-auto.com, 2019) This means that to achieve
the goal of 1:1 vehicle-pile ratio, by 2030, there will be a shortfall of up to 63 million
charging piles in China.
In the meantime, the contribution of new technologies to the scale of the market cannot be
overlooked, such as HPC. Currently, the industry defines a charging power of 350kW, a
voltage plateau of approximately 1000Vd.c, and a charging current of 350A as HPC, which
can reduce the time required to charge NEVs from the current one hour to around 10 minutes,
7.41
4.73
3.45 3.35
3.13
2.93
y = 6.9462x-0.518
R² = 0.9705
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Car-Pile ratio

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