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Server industry report
1. Asia Pacific Equity Research
16 April 2023
J P M O R G A N
www.jpmorganmarkets.com
Correction (first published 15 April 2023) (See disclosures for details)
Technology - Hardware
Albert Hung AC
(886-2) 2725-9875
albert.hung@jpmchase.com
Bloomberg JPMA AHUNG <GO>
J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited/ J.P.
Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P.
Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited
Gokul Hariharan
(852) 2800-8564
gokul.hariharan@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited/ J.P.
Morgan Broking (Hong Kong) Limited
JJ Park
(82-2) 758-5717
jj.park@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities (Far East) Limited, Seoul
Branch
Jerry Tsai
(886-2) 2725-9867
jerry.tsai@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited
Anthony Leng
(886-2) 2725-9240
anthony.leng@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited
Robert Hsu
(886-2) 2725-9864
robert.hsu@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited
Jennifer Hsieh
(886-2) 2725-9868
jennifer.hsieh@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited
Sangsik Lee
(82-2) 758 5146
sangsik.lee@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities (Far East) Limited, Seoul
Branch
Following our deep-dive note on AI semis in 2018 (link), we update our AI server
shipment forecast and provide a BoM cost analysis of Nvidia HGX H100/A100
servers. We estimate 3% AI server shipment mix in 2022 and forecast a 42%
shipment CAGR in the next 5 years driven by increasing investment by ISPs in
machine learning, monetization in inference applications, and rising adoption in
AI cloud service platforms. We estimate the costs of AI servers to be around
15x/32x (A100/H100 server, respectively) higher than that of regular servers,
driven mainly by silicon value increase (especially GPUs and memory) and higher
hardware specs requirement. In the Asian tech space, we identify TSMC, SK
Hynix, Unimicron, ASPEED, Wistron, Quanta, Delta and Sunonwealth as the
major beneficiaries of exponential growth of AI servers.
• How to define AI servers? We define AI servers as servers with GPUs and AI
ASIC (ex: Google’s TPU). We believe most of the AI activities remain at the
training stage now and inference applications are still limited. Given Nvidia’s
lion’s share in the GPU server market (85%-90% market share, according to
IDC), we use Nvidia’s GPU server shipment to derive our current AI server
volumes and forecasts. We estimate ~3% of total servers to be AI related, with
the higher-end SKUs possibly representing only one-third of that.
• Inference is the key to drive volume upsides. Despite recent market hype on
AI, we have seen limited order increase in AI servers. We attribute the limited
volume upsides to the reuse of AI servers to train different algorithms and
limited monetization in AI applications. Still, we forecast AI server market to
grow by 3.5x in 5 years with accelerating investment in machine learning and
mature monetization in inference applications. We believe the rising AI server
trend, along with market focus shifting to 2H23 demand recovery, is likely to
drive valuation re-rating on the related stocks despite limited revenue
contribution now.
• Datacenter GPUs drive leading edge node migration, memory also a key
beneficiary. Semiconductor comprises 90%+ of total AI server BoM cost vs.
65-70% of regular servers, driven mainly by high-end CPUs, incremental
GPUs and rising requirement for memory (~4x/5x DRAM/NAND content vs.
regular servers). The high silicon costs have incentivized hyperscalers to
develop in-house datacenter ASICs, in our view. The heterogeneous
computingtrendbodeswellforTSMC,inourview.Besides,wealsoseehigher
BMC content in AI servers.
• Rising power consumption and more complex system integration for AI
servers. We see ODM, PCB, power supply, and heat dissipation as major
beneficiaries of AI servers in the hardware space. Server ODMs benefit from
themorecomplexdesignandsystemintegration.PCBmakersenjoyincreasing
layer counts in AI server PCB. The high-end CPUs and incremental GPUs
consumemorepowerandthisleadstocontentgrowthinpowersupplyandheat
dissipation modules.
See page 15 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that
the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision.
AI Servers
Deconstructing the BoM and understanding potential
upside for Asia Tech hardware
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of anthony.wc.liao@jpmorgan.com & clients of J.P. Morgan.
2. 2
Albert Hung
(886-2) 2725-9875
albert.hung@jpmchase.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research
16 April 2023 J P M O R G A N
Key charts and tables
Figure 1: AI server ecosystem and key drive factors
Source: J.P. Morgan.
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of anthony.wc.liao@jpmorgan.com & clients of J.P. Morgan.
3. 3
Albert Hung
(886-2) 2725-9875
albert.hung@jpmchase.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research
16 April 2023 J P M O R G A N
Table 1: AI related exposure in our tech coverage
Company Nature of involvement % of revenue likely in 2023 Comments
TSMC Foundry + backend for AI (CoWoS) 2-3% 100% market share for GPU for Gaming and AI as well as Mellanox DPUs, CoWoS for AI Chips
Unimicron AI chip substrates 1-2% Unimicron is the secondary supply for the substrates used in the AI chips.
SK Hynix HBM or GDDR6 DRAM Mid-HSD% Sole supplier of HBM to NVIDIA. 60-70% M/S in HBM market
ASPEED AI server BMC 1%
Delta AI server power supply and fans Limited Has great potential in power supply and fans given larger power consumption in AI server
Sunonwealth AI server fans 1-2% Has great potential in fans given larger power consumption in AI server
FII GPU server/module ODMs 5-10%
Wistron GPU server/module ODMs 2-3%
Wiwynn GPU server ODMs Teens % 50% of current project pipeline (in terms of project number) are AI related.
Inventec GPU server mainboard ODMs 5-10% Mainly MSFT, Google and small contribution from Amazon AI projects.
Quanta GPU server ODMs 5-10% Key supplier of MSFT AI servers.
Source: Company data, J.P. Morgan estimates.
What are AI servers?
Our definition of AI servers is the servers with GPU and AI ASIC (TPU). We believe
the majority of AI server activities are in the training phase, while there are limited
applications in the inference. As Nvidia’s GPU has dominant market shares (85%-90%
market share, according to IDC) in AI training due to the multi-cores structure, we
derived AI server volumes from Nvidia’s GPU shipment.
Figure 2: Block diagram of a heterogeneous compute implementation
GPU
Source: Gartner, J.P. Morgan. (Link). *Note: ASIC includes Google’s TPU, Amazon’s Inferentia etc.
AI server shipment still small, but revenue contribution
reached teens %
There were 3.2mn datacenter GPUs in 2022, of which ~35% was Nvidia’s A100/V100
GPU. If we assume each AI server has 8 GPUs, the implied GPU server shipment was
400k units in last year. We estimate 90% of AI servers to be GPU servers. This implies
total AI server shipment to be 440k in 2022, which was 3.3% of the total server market.
In a simplified sense, the process of AI /
Machine Learning can be divided into 2
main steps – (1) Training, for the system
to learn and perfect a model or algorithm
from massive datasets, and (2) Inference,
for the system to apply the model in a
real-life scenario or use case like facial
recognition, speech recognition.
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of anthony.wc.liao@jpmorgan.com & clients of J.P. Morgan.
4. 4
Albert Hung
(886-2) 2725-9875
albert.hung@jpmchase.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research
16 April 2023 J P M O R G A N
According to IDC, servers that cost US$25k and above comprised ~2% /~11% of total
server shipment/value in 2022. While AI server shipment contribution remains limited,
we estimate teens % revenue contribution of AI servers given the multiple times of ASP
vs. regular servers.
Table 2: AI server penetration estimate
2022
Datacenter GPU shipment (mn) 3.2
Nvidia A100/V100 shipment 1.1
A100/V100 shipment mix 34%
GPU per servers 8
GPU server volume (mn) 0.40
% of GPU for AI applications 100%
GPU servers as % of AI servers 90%
AI server volumes (mn) 0.44
Global server shipment 13.5
AI server as % of total mix 3.3%
Source: IDC, Gartner, J.P. Morgan estimates.
Accelerating AI server market growth
We forecast a 42% AI server shipment CAGR from 2022-27, buoyed by accelerating
investment in machine learning, proliferation of inference applications and higher rate
of adoption of AI cloud service. Consequently, we expect the AI server penetration rate
to increase from 3% in 2022 to 15% in 2027.
Figure 3: AI server shipment forecast
0.9% 1.3%
2.3%
3.3%
5.3%
7.5%
9.8%
12.4%
15.0%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E
AI server volumes (in mn units) AI server % mix
Source: IDC, J.P. Morgan estimates.
Increasing complexity in model training
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5. 5
Albert Hung
(886-2) 2725-9875
albert.hung@jpmchase.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research
16 April 2023 J P M O R G A N
According to OpenAI, the total computing workload used in AI training has been
doubling every 2 years starting from 1959, and the doubling time has accelerated to 3.4
months since 2012. Looking forward, the Research Lab believes that the doubling time
is likely to speed up further given the increasing trend of algorithmic innovations (i.e.
increasing genres of AI-specific chips) and improving cost burden (better affordability
of hardware chips for AI training).
Take generative large language model (LLM) training as an example. Total computing
flops requirements have increased to 3,640 training petaflop/s per day in GPT-3 175B
model (launched in 2H20), ~10x more than 382 petaflop/s in T5-11B model (launched
in 2H19).
Figure 4: Compute requirement of Large Language Model training
Source: OpenAI (link).
How to translate required training parameters into GPU consumption?
Nvidia provides various computing power levels under different learning structures for a
single GPU. Take A100 as an example. A single 4-GPU based DGX A100 server could
generate 1.25 PetaFLOP per second under Tensor Float 32 structure. As the required
total training compute of Chat GPT-3 is 3.14 * 10^23 FLOPs, this implies that it will
take ~300 4-GPU A100 server units to keep the training time within 30 days, on our
estimates.
Of note, the required training compute of each model is correlated with the number of
parameters and training tokens. The sharp increase in the parameters of new language
models implies higher computing power consumption.
Floating point operations per second
(FLOPS) is a commonly used
performance indicator of machine
learning hardware, due to the prevalence
of using floating point, instead of integer,
in deep learning.
Of note, GigaFLOPs= 10^9, TeraFLOPs=
10^12, PetaFLOPs= 10^15.
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of anthony.wc.liao@jpmorgan.com & clients of J.P. Morgan.
6. 6
Albert Hung
(886-2) 2725-9875
albert.hung@jpmchase.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research
16 April 2023 J P M O R G A N
Table 3: GPU consumption estimates in AI training (ChatGPT 3.0)
Note
Single A100 card computing power 312 TeraFLOP/s; under TF32
4-GPUs A100 server machine computing power 1.25 PetaFLOP/s
redundancy rates 67%
A single 4-GPUs A100 server computing power per day 35,583 PetaFLOP/day
GPT3 175B model training requirements 314,496,000 PetaFLOP/day
Required days to train GPT3 model on single A100 server 8,838 Days
How many 4-GPUs A100 server machine to keep training time in 1 month 295 servers
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.
More complete AI ecosystem attracts new investment
AI is playing a critical role in the world. There are more use cases relying on AI
algorithms and machine learning to save time and costs across industries. People are
more frequently using ChatGPT to collect data and make better decisions in a shorter
time frame. Businesses are leveraging AI algorithms to automate operational processes
to improve efficiency and save costs. According to a McKinsey & Company survey, AI
adoption in enterprises has more than doubled in 2022 (50%) vs. 2017 (20%).
The rise of underlying AI demand will lead to a more complete AI ecosystem, in our
view. During Nvidia’s GTC investor day, the company indicated strong growth in the
number of developers, CUDA downloads, AI startups, and GPU-accelerated
applications. Similarly, Intel saw 85%+ install base increase in its open accelerated
computing platform during the investor webinar. Given that server capacity and
computing power are the key factors of AI infrastructure, we believe the pent-up AI
demand and emerging AI applications will lead to a fast growth of AI server spending.
According to IDC, AI server infrastructure will grow at a 17% CAGR in 2021-26.
Figure 5: AI demand growth
Source: Nvidia.
Inference is the key for volume upside
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of anthony.wc.liao@jpmorgan.com & clients of J.P. Morgan.
7. 7
Albert Hung
(886-2) 2725-9875
albert.hung@jpmchase.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research
16 April 2023 J P M O R G A N
We are still in the early stage of AI, with most applications focused on machine learning
and AI training. As hyperscalers could leverage the same servers to train different
algorithms under various time frames, this implies limited volume upsides in the
training phase for the same customers. Of note, we estimate the OpenAI organisation to
have 2-3k GPU servers while it only takes several hundred AI servers to train a single
model in one month.
Besides, training is a cost factor for hyperscalers so stringent investment in AI learning
is important to keep their margins stable. But, if there were heightened competition in
the existing business areas, Internet service providers could prioritize market shares over
profitability and invest heavily on front-end research. For example, we believe Google
would be likely to accelerate its investments in search engine related areas to defend
against competition from MSFT’s GPT-powered Bing.
In the medium to near term, we expect more internet service providers to join AI
research competition and drive front-end investments in AI servers for training. In the
medium to long term, we believe inference plays a more important role in AI server
volume scale. Take ChatGPT-3 as an example in Table 4. The GPU server consumption
could grow by multiple times if the number of users or the frequency of queries
increases. Besides, the higher number of parameters in each generation could also
increase the FLOPs consumption proportionally. As the rising traction of inference
applications will incur meaningful costs, the key watch point is whether hyperscalers are
able to monetize the product and support the expansion.
Table 4: Generative AI running cost - Inference (ChatGPT 3.0)
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Note
Chat GPT users (mn) 100 200 300 Achieved 100 mn users in two months
Monthly visit times 3.9 4.5 5.2 13mn daily users
Query each time 4 8 12
Words each Query 400 500 600 Input+ output
Generated words each month (mn) 624,000 3,588,000 11,140,740
Generated words per second 240,741 1,384,259 4,298,125
Implied tokens per second 180,556 1,038,194 3,223,594 1 word = 0.75 token
Chat GPT Parameters (bn) 175 175 175
A100 computing power (TFLOPs) 624 Under FP16 or INT8
Required second per token by single A100 card 0.00056
GPU UTRs 50%
Average word outputs per second on Chat GPT 5.6
Required A100 cards 1,134 6,522 20,251
Nvidia A100 cost 11,000
Required monthly running costs (USD mn) 12 72 223
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.
Key assumptions of the exercise:
• Monthly visit times: We assume 13mn daily users in Scenario 1.
• Words in each query: This include the input words and generated words.
• Implied tokens per second: We assume 1 English word = 0.75 token.
• A100 computing power: 624 TFLOPs under FP16 or INT8 structure.
• Required second per token by single A100 card: (2* 175bn parameters) /A100
computing power (TFLOPs).
• GPU UTRs: GPU cannot run at peak levels all the time. Also need to build extra
capacity as ChatGPT users could be more concentrated in certain regions.
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of anthony.wc.liao@jpmorgan.com & clients of J.P. Morgan.
8. 8
Albert Hung
(886-2) 2725-9875
albert.hung@jpmchase.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research
16 April 2023 J P M O R G A N
• Average word outputs per second on ChatGPT: The responsive time/ word has been
largely consistent during our test.
• Required A100 cards: We assume OpenAI to keep responsive time the same.
• Nvidia A100 cost: We do not include other hardware costs such as server power,
chassis, etc.
Have we seen upsides in AI server shipment recently?
We have seen increasing market hype on AI topics given the positive feedback on
ChatGPT and generative AI models. Although some hyperscalers have recently
accelerated their investments in machine learning and AI training, the magnitude of
upward revision on server units appeared milder than expected. Our research indicates
limited AI server volume upside while there is supply chain bottleneck in TSMC’s
CoWoS HBM3 due to lower yields.
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of anthony.wc.liao@jpmorgan.com & clients of J.P. Morgan.
9. 9
Albert Hung
(886-2) 2725-9875
albert.hung@jpmchase.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research
16 April 2023 J P M O R G A N
BoM cost comparison between AI and
regular servers
In the following table, we estimate the component costs of regular servers and AI
servers. The key difference of AI servers vs. regular servers is GPU (or accelerators),
which account for 70%+ of AI server BoM cost. The silicon content increase also leads
to higher requirements of memory/storage, networking transmission speed, power
consumption and heat dissipation. Overall, we estimate AI server BoM cost to be
15x/32x higher than that of regular servers.
Table 5: Server BoM cost analysis: Regular server vs. GPU/AI server
Content value % of Total BoM Content value % of Total BoM Content value % of Total BoM
CPU 2,166 29% 13,900 12% 21,420 9%
GPU 0 0% 80,000 71% 200,000 83%
CPU DIMM (DDR5) 1,380 18% 4,600 4% 4,600 2%
Storage SSD 1,365 18% 6,825 6% 6,825 3%
Network Cards (NIC) 155 2% 1,000 1% 1,000 0%
Chassis Costs 20 0% 40 0% 40 0%
Motherboard: Dual Sockets 300 4% 360 0% 360 0%
Power Supply 300 4% 1,200 1% 1,200 0%
Storage Backplane 83 1% 83 0% 83 0%
Drive Caddies 57 1% 57 0% 57 0%
Fans 75 1% 270 0% 270 0%
Heat dissipation module excl. fans (heat pipe) 30 0% 100 0% 100 0%
Internal Cables 20 0% 20 0% 20 0%
Riser Cards 20 0% 20 0% 20 0%
Sheet Metal Case 100 1% 200 0% 200 0%
PCB 325 4% 650 1% 650 0%
Assembly Labor and Test 495 7% 1,485 1% 1,485 1%
Markup 689 9% 2,067 2% 2,067 1%
Total Cost 7,580 100% 112,877 100% 240,397 100%
AI server BoM vs. Regular server BoM 14.9x 31.7x
Regular servers GPU/AI servers (A100x8) GPU/AI servers (H100x8)
Source: Company data, J.P.Morgan estimates.
Figure 6: Key component BoM breakdown - regular server
CPU, 29%
CPU DIMM,
18%
NAND
storage,
18%
Others, 35%
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.
Figure 7: Key component BoM breakdown - H100 server
GPU, 83%
CPU, 9%
CPU DIMM,
2%
NAND
storage, 3%
Others, 3%
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.
GPU: The key BoM cost boost, good for leading-edge Foundry vendors
A single AI server usually includes 2/4/8 GPUs for parallel processing to accelerate the
computing. In the BoM cost analysis, we assume 8 GPUs in a single AI server and
estimate US$10k/25k for a A100/H100 module.
Nvidia has been improving the computing power of datacenter GPUs, resulting in
meaningful price upticks but lower cost per computing power. We expect such GPU
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10. 10
Albert Hung
(886-2) 2725-9875
albert.hung@jpmchase.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research
16 April 2023 J P M O R G A N
price trend to continue in the next few generations.
Figure 8: Nvidia datacenter GPU computing power comparison
In TFLOPs (Tera floating point operations per second)
10.6
15.7
19.5
60.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
P100 V100 A100 H100
Source: Company data, J.P. Morgan.
Figure 9: Nvidia’s datacenter GPU prices and cost per compute
US$k,US$/TFLOPs
9
11 10
25
0.9
0.7
0.5
0.4
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
P100 V100 A100 H100
Source: Company data, J.P.Morgan calculations. Prices refer to SXM model.
CPU: Higher specs requirement but not the key silicon
Dual socket CPU configuration comprises 80%+ of current servers. As GPUs and AI
ASIC (TPU) are key drivers to accelerating processing, the number of CPUs do not
increase in AI servers. However, the CPU specs of AI server are much higher than the
regular ones. According to Nvidia, the default CPUs in DGX A100 and DGX H100 are
AMD EPYC 7742 (Rome) and Intel 4th gen Xeon 8480C (EagleStream) processors.
The prices of both CPUs are 5-10x higher than mainstream server CPUs.
Memory and storage: Meaningful content increase to facilitate AI workload
The DRAM content is around 600 GB per regular server while the default DRAM specs
of Nvidia’s HGX/DGX series is 2 TB. There is also 40GB/80GB GDDR per GPU.
Assuming 8 GPUs in a single AI server, total DRAM content could be 2 TB+
320GB/640GB GDDR. Besides, we also see higher specs of DRAM in AI servers such
as DDR5 adoption in CPU DIMM and high bandwidth memory (HBM) for GDDR.
NAND content also increases in AI servers due to higher requirements to store the data
set. We assume 20 TB of average NAND storage per AI server, while Nvidia’s HGX/
DGX series support 30 TB NVMe SSD storage and mainstream regular server NAND
content is 4 TB now.
Our Korean memory team (led by analyst JJ Park) estimates that AI server contribution
was ~4% of total memory revenue in 2022 and it will increase to ~9%-12% from FY24-
FY27E.
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of anthony.wc.liao@jpmorgan.com & clients of J.P. Morgan.
11. 11
Albert Hung
(886-2) 2725-9875
albert.hung@jpmchase.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research
16 April 2023 J P M O R G A N
Table 6: AI server contribution to total memory revenue
2022 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E
DRAM revenue (US$mn) 77,768.9 41,529.8 58,119.6 63,931.5 70,324.7 77,357.1
NAND revenue (US$mn) 47,079.1 34,254.8 46,801.3 53,119.5 60,290.6 68,429.9
Total MM (US$mn) 124,848.0 75,784.6 104,920.9 117,051.0 130,615.3 145,787.0
Total AI server revenue (DRAM/NAND) 4,780.9 6,517.6 9,048.3 11,821.7 14,883.9 18,031.6
% of Memory Market 4% 9% 9% 10% 11% 12%
DRAM
CPU
AI Server demand (8Gb, M) 907 1,393 2,176 3,084 4,209 5,525
AI server shipment (M) 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.8 2.2
Server density (GB/system) 2,048 2,048 2,150 2,258 2,371 2,489
DDR5 ASP (US$/GB) 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5
(A) DRAM Revenue catered to CPU 1,814.5 2,646.5 3,926.9 5,288.0 6,857.3 8,550.2
GPU
AI server demand (8Gb, M) 191 277 408 578 789 1,036
HBM server density (GB/system) 480 480 504 529 556 583
GPU server shipment (M) 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.8
HBM ASP (US$/GB) 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8
(B) DRAM Revenue catered to GPU 574.1 749.2 991.2 1,264.6 1,553.5 1,835.1
(A) + (B) 2,388.7 3,395.8 4,918.1 6,552.6 8,410.8 10,385.3
% of DRAM revenue 3.1% 8.2% 8.5% 10.2% 12.0% 13.4%
NAND (Storage SSD)
AI server demand (8Gb, M) 7,974 11,562 16,997 24,093 32,886 43,163
Storage density (GB/system) 20,000 20,000 21,000 22,050 23,153 24,310
GPU server shipment (M) 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.8
ASP 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Revenue (US$mn) 2,392.2 3,121.8 4,130.2 5,269.1 6,473.0 7,646.3
% of NAND revenue 5.1% 9.1% 8.8% 9.9% 10.7% 11.2%
Source: iSuppli, Gartner, WSTS, J.P. Morgan Korean memory team estimates.
PCB: Higher layer counts and lower yields drive ASP upticks
We estimate 10-12 layers of regular server PCB while AI servers require higher end
PCB including 18-20 layers. The higher number of PCB layers implies not only more
content value but also higher difficulty in production yields. Consequently, we estimate
50-100% ASP upticks of AI server PCB vs. regular server PCB.
ODM: More complex design and system integration
While the general ODM feedback suggests similar margin for AI servers, we believe
ODM margins should be diluted by the higher GPU costs. Still, the more complex
configuration design, longer testing time, and pricing premiums for niche models will
likely drive higher profit dollars.
We believe several server ODMs are considering to change the pricing model from “buy
and sell” to “consign” in AI servers. In this case, the AI server price could be reduced
by 60-70% while margins could be higher.
This document is being provided for the exclusive use of anthony.wc.liao@jpmorgan.com & clients of J.P. Morgan.
12. 12
Albert Hung
(886-2) 2725-9875
albert.hung@jpmchase.com
Asia Pacific Equity Research
16 April 2023 J P M O R G A N
Figure 10: GPU module (A100)
Source: Nvidia.
Figure 11: GPU server (DGX H100)
Source: Nvidia.
Power supply: A single GPU chip consumes similar power of a regular server
Processing chip is the key component of power consumption in servers. The TDP
(Thermal Design Power) of single server CPU is around 300W and a two socket regular
server could consume 1200-1600W. The TDP of GPU ranges from 300W to 700W and
it is around 50W per Smart NIC card. Therefore, most regular servers require 1+1 1.2k-
1.8kW server power supply while AI server power supply requirement could range from
2 to 4 *3kW.
Figure 12: Nvidia’s datacenter GPU power consumption in TDP
Watt
250
300
400
700
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
P100 V100 A100 H100
Source: Company data.
Heat dissipation: Air cooling still the majority, liquid cooling the next trend
Air cooling (fans + heat pipe/ vapor chamber) is still the mainstream heat dissipation
solution for servers now. Nvidia’s A100 servers have much higher total design power
and require more advanced heat dissipation. Our research indicates prices are 3x-5x for
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16 April 2023 J P M O R G A N
AI heat dissipation solutions vs. regular server solutions.
Currently some ISPs adopt immersion liquid cooling as a transitional solution, which is
costly but has better heat dissipation performance vs. air cooling. We believe solution
providers have been researching on a more economical liquid cooling (cold-plate)
solution to tackle the much higher heat generation of AI servers (such as H100 server).
Figure 13: Immersion liquid cooling (two phase)
Source: Wiwynn.
Figure 14: Cold-plate liquid cooling system
Source: Wiwynn.
Networking: NVlink and NVSwitch
It takes multiple AI servers to train a single algorithm so the data transmission between
GPUs in different AI servers is important to reduce the latency. Nvidia has launched
NVlink to improve the communication between GPUs within a single AI server and
NVSwtich to connect the various AI rack servers. Consequently, we expect the rising AI
server mix to drive the networking upgrade in datacenter switch and volume upsides of
Smart NIC/DPU.
Figure 15: Nvidia’s NVLink
Source: Company data.
Figure 16: Nvidia’s NVSwitch
Source: Company data.
AI beneficiaries in Asia tech
In the Asian tech space, we identify key beneficiaries under the AI explosion trend,
including TSMC (key datacenter GPU foundry), SK Hynix (key HBM3 supplier),
Unimicron (AI chips substrate), ASPEED (AI server BMC content growth), Wistron
(GPU server subsystem supplier), Quanta (key GPU server ODM), Delta and
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16 April 2023 J P M O R G A N
Sunonwealth (increasing power supply and fan contents in AI server).
Table 7: AI related exposure in our tech coverage
Company Nature of involvement % of revenue likely in 2023 Comments
TSMC Foundry + backend for AI (CoWoS) 2-3% 100% market share for GPU for Gaming and AI as well as Mellanox DPUs, CoWoS for AI Chips
Unimicron AI chip substrates 1-2% Unimicron is the secondary supply for the substrates used in the AI chips.
SK Hynix HBM or GDDR6 DRAM Mid-HSD% Sole supplier of HBM to NVIDIA. 60-70% M/S in HBM market
ASPEED AI server BMC 1%
Delta AI server power supply and fans Limited Has great potential in power supply and fans given larger power consumption in AI server
Sunonwealth AI server fans 1-2% Has great potential in fans given larger power consumption in AI server
FII GPU server/module ODMs 5-10%
Wistron GPU server/module ODMs 2-3%
Wiwynn GPU server ODMs Teens % 50% of current project pipeline (in terms of project number) are AI related.
Inventec GPU server mainboard ODMs 5-10% Mainly MSFT, Google and small contribution from Amazon AI projects.
Quanta GPU server ODMs 5-10% Key supplier of MSFT AI servers.
Source: Company data, J.P. Morgan estimates.
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Asia Pacific Equity Research
16 April 2023 J P M O R G A N
Correction: The following corrections have been made in the report: 1) Page 7, first paragraph, the table reference has been corrected; 2) Page 9
text, ''xPUs'' has changed to ''GPUs and AI ASIC (TPU)''; 3) Page 11, the text on AI server power supply requirement has been corrected; 4)
Page 8, the text on AI server BoM cost has been corrected; 5) Figure 1, Figure 7 and Table 5 have been updated to fix inadvertent errors.
Companies Discussed in This Report (all prices in this report as of market close on 14 April 2023)
ASPEED Technology Inc.(5274.TWO/NT$2,755.00/OW), Delta Electronics, Inc.(2308.TW/NT$314.50/OW), Quanta Computer
Inc.(2382.TW/NT$81.80/N), SK hynix(000660.KS/W89,300/OW), Sunonwealth(2421.TW/NT$52.90/OW), TSMC(2330.TW/
NT$516.00/OW), Unimicron(3037.TW/NT$139.00/OW), Wistron Corporation(3231.TW/NT$43.95/N)
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other than investment banking from SK hynix.
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J.P. Morgan uses the following rating system: Overweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will outperform the average
total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.] Neutral [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this
stock will perform in line with the average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.] Underweight
[Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will underperform the average total return of the stocks in the analyst’s (or the
analyst’s team’s) coverage universe.] Not Rated (NR): J.P. Morgan has removed the rating and, if applicable, the price target, for this stock
because of either a lack of a sufficient fundamental basis or for legal, regulatory or policy reasons. The previous rating and, if applicable, the
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Coverage Universe: Hung, Albert: ASPEED Technology Inc. (5274.TWO), ASUSTek Computer (2357.TW), Chindata (CD), Compal
Electronics, Inc. (2324.TW), Inventec (2356.TW), Lenovo Group Limited (0992) (0992.HK), Micro-Star International Co., Ltd. (2377.TW),
Pegatron Corp (4938.TW), Quanta Computer Inc. (2382.TW), VNET Group (VNET), Wistron Corporation (3231.TW), Wiwynn Corp
(6669.TW)
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J.P. Morgan Equity Research Ratings Distribution, as of April 01, 2023
Overweight
(buy)
Neutral
(hold)
Underweight
(sell)
J.P. Morgan Global Equity Research Coverage* 47% 38% 15%
IB clients** 47% 44% 34%
JPMS Equity Research Coverage* 46% 41% 13%
IB clients** 66% 65% 53%
*Please note that the percentages might not add to 100% because of rounding.
**Percentage of subject companies within each of the "buy," "hold" and "sell" categories for which J.P. Morgan has provided
investment banking services within the previous 12 months.
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Completed 15 Apr 2023 04:14 AM HKT Disseminated 15 Apr 2023 04:17 AM HKT
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