2. Logic flow
1.
2. Previous Study
Definition of the coup
-1. Coups of 1971, 1991 and 2006
-2. Si x Hypotheses in Roger Vrooman’s article
3. Analysis
-1. Coup Analysis on 1970s
-2. Coup Analysis on 1991
-3. Coups Form Changing from 1970s to 1991
4. Conclusion
Reference
Introduction
Previous Study
Six Hypotheses
Analysis
Conclusion
3. Introduction
After Siamese Revolution of 1932,
Coup has occurred by military
In previous studies…
Coup
Politics Military
Surface!!
We found
“Change rate amount of rice”
was decreased!!
5. Table 1 List of political changes (coup) in Thailand
Oct. 14, 1973 brought: 1.King supporting structure
2.Radical democratization structure (ex. Freedom of speech)
Oct. 6, 1976 Anti-revolution by conservative brought: 1. Tanin government shift the suppression of free speech
2. Military carry out a coup
/Many students become “Forest”(communist armed struggle)
Oct, 1977 brought: 1. Recovery of free speech which will get called in “half democracy”
Feb. 23, 1991 brought: Efficient politics under the Anand government (Technocrat)
Jan. 24, 2006 1. Stock gains of Thaksin is picked up in the media (He sell the stock to the Temaseku of Singapore at 73.3 billion baht)
Sept. 19, 2006 occurs while Prime Minister Thaksin visited to the United States
As a result: 1. Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is ousted, and enters the exile
2. Former army commander Surayud is appointed prime minister
Jan. 26, 2010 60% of Thaksin family’s assets (about 46.4 billion baht) forfeited as an illicit enrichment at the Thailand Supreme
Court ruling
May. 19, 2010 Such a red shirt executive Nattawut profess a dissolution of meeting under the forced elimination by the security
authorities.
Arson and looting happened around the regions by the group which did not accept dissolution
July. 4, 2010 Yingluck (Thaksin’ sister) government established by general election.
May. 20, 2014 Military issued a martial law and declared a coup on May 22. Source：Yamamoto(2011), Nihon Keizai Shimbun
Table 1. List of Political Changes (coup) in Thailand
Student revolution
A coup by Kriengsak
A coup by Suchinda
Military coup
7. 2-1 About coups
1971 coup
•Government abused power
Michael L Mezey (1973)
•Threat of communism
Morrison (1972)
8. １９９１ coup
2006 coup
• the frustration of military against parliamentary democracy
Ferrara (2011)
• the confrontation between inside of military
Ockey (2007)
• gap of income, education, consciousness and culture effect
Albritton and Bureekul(2007)
• Corruption of government
Banbongkarn(1992)
9. Six hypotheses which account for coup in terms of and factors
Political Factors
① Political participation
② Foreign influence
③ Electoral process
Economic Factors
④ GDP performance
⑤ Income inequality performance
⑥Export-based product performance
political economic
23. Though the export rice price fell, the domestic
price of rice rather rose
Increase in consumer prices
4
Proportion of food cost in factory worker family was
….. about 50%
10% of broken rice: 127 baht→154.3 baht / 100kg
21%
increase
24.
25. 100% rice 5% rice 10% rice 15% rice 20% rice 25% rice AI broken rice
1972
June 1,737 1,737 1,579 1,551 1,532 1,515 1,351
July 1,799 1,637 1,601 1,571 1,555 1,538 1,411
August 2,218 2,055 2,002 1,976 1,975 1,939 1,629
September 2,209 2,035 1,969 1,934 1,907 1,884 1,641
October 2,325 2,176 2,115 2,084 2,061 2,042 1,726
November 2,524 2,340 2,235 2,201 2,173 2,144 1,848
December 2,674 2,471 2,346 2,312 2,279 2,254 2,036
1973年
January 2,504 2,360 2,233 2,194 2,163 2,137 1,848
February 2,783 2,603 2,458 2,410 2,377 2,343 1,837
March 2,831 2,699 2,368 2,314 2,280 2,247 1,742
April 2,892 2,761 2,551 2,392 2,358 2,325 1,896
May 3,151 2,988 2,874 2,651 2,459 2,445 1,942
June 3,380 3,224 2,873 2,873 2,657 2,607 1,945
July 3,292 3,142 2,992 2,758 2,525 2,492 1,792
Transitiontion of rice price about whole sell
（ton/baht）
1972, June: 1737 baht/1t
1973, June: 3380 baht/1t
a
→ Government ban on rice export
Rice price in 1973 was impacted by
the poor crop in prior year
Table2:
⋆ 1973 students revolution
Double price
Source: Year book of Asian affair (1974)
26. Figure7: Consumer price index rate of urban area in Thailand
Source: Year book of Asian affair (1974)
Food
All item
Garment
(month)
1973
a
Poor crop of rice
↓
Rice Price rose
Other goods price indexes rose
Consumer
price index
↓
Student revolution occurs
↓
27. ‣What did policy adopted in Tanin government?
‣What was the economic situation at that time?
Look on!!
⋆1977 coup
Kriansak Chomanan policy statement
‣ To escape from the political and economic crisis
28. Table3 Anti-communistic policy under Tanin government
1
Suspension of publication on journal
Built an institution of censorship
2
Intensive penalty against communist
Ex) Arresting people if she have communistic book published before June 6, 1976
3 Enough the anti-communistic education fit in Korean model
4
Village scout
Education of anti-communistic farmer (by adding care)
5
Downright military cleanup operation
At that time: Doing curfew, Imposing an economic blockade
Source: The Developing Economies year book (1978)
29. Enforced anti-communism
Two important policies
1. Educate the anti-communistic organization in
village
2. Downright military cleanup operation by
blocking a border
30. While Tanin government was carrying out the anti-communist
policy, he was a very incompetent to economic policy……
For example
GDP growth rate 8,2％→6,2％
Consumer Price Index 4.1％→7.6％
Unemployment Rate rises 5%
Agricultural production -1%
Production volume of grain -2.8%
Thanin government
Strong anti-communist policy
Sacrifice economic
growth
1977 Coup
Domestic frustration
and economic crisis
31. ‣3-2.1991 coup analysis
Focus on Asian trend data base and Statistics
Figure 8. Growth rate of real GDP in Thailand (2005 US $ basis)
Source: the author from world bank data
32. The real GDP growth rate from 1988 through 1991 shows the high growth
rate of more than 9% of things that the tendency to some falls is seen
Cause
33. we look at changes in the various indicators coming related to life, such
as the consumer price index...
Source: author based Institute of Developing Economies Asia trend database Source: author based Institute of Developing Economies Asia trend database
34. ‣3-3.What happened in 1970s and 1991 years?
1970s 1990
economic factor economic factor
○ ×
35. 0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
constant2005US$ Figure12 Per-capita GDP in Thai
Source: World bank data
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
Figure13 Per-capita GDP growth rate
Source: World bank dataより筆者作成
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
millionus$
Figure14 GDP growth in Thai [1978-1995]
Source: world bank data
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
millionus$
Figure14 GDP growth in Thai [1978-1995]
Source: world bank data
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995
Figure13 Per-capita GDP growth rate
Source: World bank dataより筆者作成
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
constant2005US$
Figure12 Per-capita GDP in Thai
Source: World bank dataより筆者作成
Change in the growth rate
in 1986 as a boundary was
observed.
36. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
%
年
Figure13 Each Industry Ratio of GDP
industry agriculture service Log. (industry) Log. (agriculture) Log. (service)
Source World bank dataSource: World bank data
0
2E+10
4E+10
6E+10
8E+10
1E+11
1.2E+11
US＄
Figure14: GDP process by Industry
industry agriculture service
40. 0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991
Figure17 trend of Direct Investment(1million bath)
direct investment
Source: yearbook of Asia affairs
1986 1987
Application to the investment committee of
Thailand for Investment
431 1057
JAPAN 202
TAIWAN 178
Major countries
41. 0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
1976 1981 1986 1988 1990 1992
Figure19 Average monthly income per family base period of
1976
Whole Kingdom
Central
Northeastern
Northern
Sourthern
source: statistical yearbook thailand
42. 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991
Thenumberofstrikes
Figure20 Transition of the number of strikes
source: ILOstat
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991
Thenumberofstrikes Figure21 Transition of the number of strikes
Figure21:
Source:ILOstat
44. Chapter4. Conclusion
The cause of coup in 1970s was an Economic Crisis
Worsening index of Economics overall
(price , unemployment)
Relationship of Rice and Coup?
The relationship domestic and international price of rice and the coup
Production volume of rice and the coup does not matter×
Coup
45. The economic factors were missing in the 1970's and 1991 is but as mentioned above…
the essence of the coup occurred is a confrontation between the government and the
military.
1970s Coup Economic crisis
It has been resolved by the large influx of foreign capital
1991 Coup Conflict of Government and Military
over corruption
Cause
the Plaza Accord
46. In other words
The essence of the coup is between the government and the military
1970s
1991
Economics Crisis
Corruption
From 1970s to 1991, relationship of Government and Military is not changed
Economics improves for the better by Plaza Accord
The dissatisfaction of people is broken off, became indifference about
politics
Only conflict between Government and Military have been close-
up
47. References
アジア経済研究所『アジア動向年報』1970年版(1970)-1992年版(1992) アジア経済研究所
下條芳明(2013)「タイ憲法政治の特色と国王概念 : 比較文明的な視点を交えて」『九州産業大学商学会』
玉田芳史・船津鶴代(2008)「タイ政治・行政の変革1991－2006」『アジア経済研究所』
山本博史(2011)「タイ―民主主義の行方」『経済貿易研究』37号、3月、133-148
Astri Suhrke and Charles E. Morrison(1972)”Thailand―Yet Another Coup”, The world Today., Vol. 28, No. 3 (Mar., 1972), pp. 117-123 , Royal Institute of International Affairs
Federico Ferrara (2011)” Thailand: minimally stable, minimally democratic”, International Political Science Review / Revue internationale de science politique, Vol. 32, Sage Publications, Ltd.
James Ockey (2007)” Thailand's 'Professional Soldiers' and Coup-making:The Coup of 2006, Crossroads: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Southeast Asian Studies, Vol. 19, No. 1 (2007)
, pp. 95-127, Northern Illinois University Center for Southeast Asian Studies
Michael L. Mezey (1973), “The 1971 Coup in Thailand: Understanding Why the Legislature Fails”, Asian Survey, Vol. 13, No. 3 (Mar., 1973), pp. 306-317, University of California Press Stable
National Statistical Office, “statistical year book thailand” No. 24 ([1963])-no. 49 (2002); 2003 (2003)-2006 (2006) 2007(2007)2009(2009)-2013(2013), National Statistical Office
Robert B. Albritton and Thawilwadee Bureekul(2007)” Public Opinion and Political Power: Sources of Support for the Coup in Thailand”, Crossroads: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Southeast Asian Studies,
Vol. 19, No. 1 (2007), pp. 20-49, Northern Illinois University Center for Southeast Asian Studies
Roger Vrooman (2007)” THE ROLE OF POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC FACTORS IN THAILAND’S LAST TWO COUPS D’ ETAT”, NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL
Suchit Bunbongkarn(1992)” Thailand in 1991: Coping with Military Guardianship”, Asian Survey, Vol. 32, No. 2, A Survey of Asia in 1991: Part II (Feb., 1992), pp. 131-139 , University of California Press
International Labour Organization, ”ILOSTAT”,
http://www.ilo.org/ilostat/faces/oracle/webcenter/portalapp/pagehierarchy/Page131.jspx?_afrLoop=95798875069981&clean=true#%40%3F_afrLoop%3D95798875069981%26clean%3Dtrue%26_adf.ctrl-
state%3Dqf50b3s64_9, （accessed 2015-08-06）
world bank, “world bank data”, http://data.worldbank.org/, （accessed 2015-08-06）
アジア経済研究所「アジア動向データベース」
http://d-arch.ide.go.jp/infolib/meta/MetDefault.exe?DEF_XSL=FullSearch&GRP_ID=G0000001&DB_ID=G0000001ASIADB&IS_TYPE=meta&IS_STYLE=default (最終アクセス日2015年8月6日)
Editor's Notes
In this chapter, we analyze Asian trend database and try to examine statistics such as economy and rice relate to coup.
Thai political confusion in 1970s can be divided into four part; 1971 coup, 1973 student revolution, 1976 reactionary coup and 1977 coup.
At first, we try to analyze 1971 coup. 1971 was one of the year when rice export price decrease which played a valuable role in Thai economy.
However, Thai government enforced regressive policy like ban of the purchasing on rice.
At the same time, the rubber price decreased in bottom after World War 2. Many companies went bankrupt and unemployment rate increased in. Moreover these economics recession increased a lot atrocious crime.
In addition, domestic rice price increased greatly at that time.
It became clear that the” 10% broken rice” price increased to 21% comparing with last year.
According to Thammasat University investigation, the percentage of food costs in factory worker’s family was about 50%.
Consulting this, this change of rice price would be seen as a serious damage.
In spite of Thai economy faced on emergency at that time, determined power of congress was very weak. So military stead coup in order to control this situation.
Next, we analyze 1973 student revolution.
It is clear that the rice price in 1973 was impacted by the poor crop in prior year
Table2 shows the change of rice price. From this, we find the increase of rice price to be double.
This price increase cause another goods price rising.
Then, consumer price index increase high-level, specifically food price relate to life directly up. For the last time, it brought frustration to Thai people and a lot of strikes led student revolution.
Finally, we analyze 1977 coup.
As noted in Kriansak policy statement, 1977 coup factor would be seen as an escape from economic crisis.
So, we look on prior minister Tanin’s policy which would be faced on economic crisis
There are two important point in his policy.
At first, he tried to educate the anti-communistic organization in village. And second, he did downright military cleanup operation by blocking a border region and forcing people to migrate.
In spite of the people cooperated on this policy, government did not pay anything. In the end, Thai people came to against government.
In addition, downright military cleanup operation by blocking a border region also increase frustration in the textile industry because 30% of domestic demand was depended on illegal trade.
Moreover, While Tanin government carried out anti-Communist policy completely, economic policy was not effective. so Thai economy in 1976 was serious condition.
From these reason, it is thinkable that 1977 coup would be triggered to break domestic frustration and economic crisis.
According to section1 and section2, we found that 1970s coup caused by economic factor, on the other hand, 1991coup did not cause by economic factor. In this section, we analyze why did make a difference between 1970s coup and 1991 coup.
Figure shows GDP trend from all angles. We found that GDP trend change high economic growth since 1986.
We investigate on the hypothesis that high economic growth is caused by Industrialization. Figure shows percentage of GDP in each industry. We confirm that industry exceeds agriculture in percentage of GDP. Then, Thailand is on the way to industrialization.
Although, this evidence did not explain high economic growth since1986, we solve the program. Figure shows trend of GDP in each industry. We found that agriculture showed low economic growth on the other hand, industry and service showed high economic growth.
table 16 of transition of the major exports. Rapidly decreasing proportion of food as a percentage of exports to the border in 1986. Instead, an increase in traditional exports of processed industrial products of textiles and integrated circuit and the like.
Furthermore, it is changes in the major export goods of export value of the change in the percentage of grocery. It shows that table 15 of a change in the proportion of food products accounted for merchandise exports.
Direct investment in the transition of table 17.
That shows a change in the nature of the industrialization of Thailand on the border of the 1986. According to this, it can be seen that the direct investment which was unchanged from the 1970s has been rapidly increased in the border 1987. It has shown in the Asia trend annual report for why direct investment was increased in this period.
Investment to the investment committee of Thailand of 1987 has increased review 1057 from 431 review 1986. 208 billion baht in registered capital base. 47.2 billion baht Japan is in review 202. 14.7billion baht Taiwan is in review 178. It has pointed out that the large amount of inflows Japan and Taiwan capital. Japan and Taiwan were faced with a rapid appreciation of the yen after the Plaza Accord. Investment has been accelerated by the impact. It considered that the industry structure has changed fundamentally in capital flows to Thailand. Industrial structure of Thailand’s industrial structure itself has been changed by the investment by Japan and Taiwan who received the appreciation of the yen after the Plaza Accord. It is I take a look at what led to what the lives of people.
As a result of change in the one household median income, The average income was almost no change from the 1976 rapidly increase from 1988 was confirmed in regions other than the north. It found that the average income in Thailand throughout the following year of 1992 of the coup has increased from 1988 about 36% and average real income has increased about 64% in the Bangkok metropolitan area.
The thing which increase in this income brought was a rapid increase of the number of strikes seen with figure 20, 21. The storm of the strike that raged in the 1970s shows presence of mind in the early 1980s and decreases remarkably over the late 1980s.
Industrial structure varied from agriculture to industry, but the Thai industry structure was big, and the industrial center changed by Japan which was started from a Plaza Agreement of 1986 in that, Taiwan afflux of capital after a 1977 coup in Thailand.
