This document summarizes several frameworks for analyzing public policy, including interest group theory, institutional rational choice, path dependence, advocacy coalition framework, social construction framework, multiple streams framework, and punctuated equilibrium. It outlines key elements of each framework and implications for policy analysis. For example, it states that interest group theory posits that concentrated interests are advantaged over diffuse interests, and organized interests over unorganized interests. This implies the need to mobilize or create organizations to represent diffuse stakeholders.

1. Artwork by El Lissitzky. Beat the Whites with the Red Wedge, 1919
Presented by Selim Erbagci, Smriti Sharma, and Tom
Nicholson

2. Framework/Theory Elements Implication for
Policy Analysis
Interest Group
Theory
Concentrated
interests
advantaged over
diffused interests;
organized interests
advantaged over
unorganized
interests
Mobilize or create
organizations to
represent diffuse
interests; anticipate
possible post-
adoption
mobilization of
diffused interests
Institutional
rational choice
Institutions shape
the circumstances
of choice facing
individuals
pursuing their own
interests
Understand the
institutions that
make and
implement policies;
look for changes in
institutions to
change policy
outcomes

3. Framework/Theory Elements Implication for
Policy Analysis
Path (state)
dependence
Accumulated
policies create
externalities that
affect the viability
of policy
alternatives in the
future
Recognize that
quick fixes or failed
proposals may limit
future options;
anticipate the
creation of policy
constituencies
Advocacy coalition
framework
Relatively stable
networks of actors
sharing core and
policy beliefs
oppose each other
to make major
change difficult in
policy subsystems
Produce evidence
to change policy
beliefs; take
advantage of
external shocks to
coalitions; seek
negotiation to end
hurting stalemates

4. Framework/Theory Elements Implication for
Policy Analysis
Social construction
framework
Both political power
and the social
construction of
targeted groups as
deserving or
undeserving affect
the distribution of
benefits and
burdens
Frame policies to
take advantage of
favorable social
constructions; look
for ways to change
social constructions
Multiple streams
framework
Political, policy, and
problem streams
join at critical times
to create
opportunities, or
policy windows, for
major policy change
Prepare for policy
windows by having
well-analyzed
alternatives on
hand; look for ways
to help open policy
windows

5. Framework/Theory Elements Implication for
Policy Analysis
Punctuated
equilibrium
Limitations in
information
processing hinder
proportionate
responses so that
policy tends to be
stable except
during major catch-
ups
Anticipate stability
occasionally
punctuated by
major policy
changes

6. Reuters video link : here

7. Photo: Maurice Michael/Flickr

8. Photo by Reuters

9. 3Background: Cigarette smoking in the Russian Federation
• Life expectancy 62 years for men, 74 for women
• Deaths per year due to smoking-related causes: 440,000
• 44 million citizens addicted, 40% Russians smoke regularly
• “Every year equivalent of a large city disappears” – Dmitry Medvedev
• 97th place out of 145 in WHO/World Bank index compiled by Bloomberg
and Kommersant (August 2012), largely due to alcohol and cigarettes.
• Birth rate not at pace with death rate
Photo by Reuters Source: President Medvedev's address

10. 3Background: Proposals from President Medvede:v in
response to cigarette smoking in Russia:
• Ban on smoking in public places
• Regulate tobacco advertising
• New taxes on price of cigarettes
1. Excise duty of 40% by 2013 & 2014
2. Hike tax by 10% every year after 2015
Photo by Reuters

11. Russian demographic context:
Precipitous decline and recent rebound
Source: Federal Governmental Statistics Service, Forbes Analysis , 7/06/2012

12. Cigarette Industry in the Russian Federation
Market Size - $22 billion
Imperial
Tobacco
17%
BAT
20%
Phillip
Morris
26%
Japan
Tobacco
37%

14. Political Feasibility Cigarette Ban and Tax Package
Actors Beliefs Motivations Resources
1.Russian cigarette
companies Sobranie (Russian) Against Profit, market access
Media access, threat of
layoffs
2. Foreign Cigarette
companies
Japan Tobacco
International, Phillip
Morris, British American
Tobacco, and Imperial
Tobacco Against Profit, market access Media access, embassies
3. Executive branch Putin, Medvedev For
Health indicators, life
expectancy
Powerful executive,
obedient parliament
4. Legislature
United Russia, deputy
Gerasimenko For
Health indicators, political
considerations
Political cover from
executive branch
5. Retail business owners cafes, restaurants, assns Against Profit, employment
threat of layoffs, media
access
6. Consumer rights groups
Consumers Union of
Russia, official consumer
watchdog Leaning For
Health indicators and consumer
rights media access
7. Health authorities Minister of Health For Health indicators demographic evidence
8. Advertisers and clients
PCP (Russian Advertising
Council) Against
Profit stream, representing
members
lobbying power and
media access
9. Finance ministry For
Tax base, life expectancy, public
health spending Cabinet level power

15. Potential vectors for engagement on issue of cigarette ban and increased taxation
• Executive Branch
• Legislature (Duma and Federal Assembly)
• Regional/Federalist approach
• Media campaign
• Pressure from business community
Choosing a sphere of engagement: the Russian smoking ban
Photo by Reuters
Photo:AP