SlideShare a Scribd company logo
Global Optionality and Diversity
www.zaratancapital.com
Zaratan - large, legendary sea turtle capable of living for centuries;
unaffected by ocean currents and often mistaken for an island, due to
their substantial size.
Like the Zaratan, our unique investment team has navigated dynamic
environments successfully delivering positive returns with low volatility.
In a world washed asunder by continued macro and political currents,
our investment process has stood the test of time and provides
investors with stability, when markets appear unstable.
The Zaratan team looks forward to assisting and growing with investors
as we circumnavigate the global macro environment together.
- Eric Leininger & Peter Ristine
2
3
Table of Contents
A. Executive Summary Page 4
B. Zaratan Capital Management
1. Firm Overview Page 5
2. Management Team Pages 6-7
3. Performance History Page 8
C. Global Macro Fund
1. Investment Process Page 9
2. Macro Theme Identification & Analysis Pages 10-11
3. Investment & Trade Implementation Page 12
4. Portfolio Construction Page 13
5. Risk Management Page 14
D. Appendices
1. Macro Economic Analysis Points Pages 15-21
2. Trade Ideas & Implementation Pages 22-27
3. Portfolio Construction Framework Pages 28-34
4. Adding Leverage to Performance History Pages 35-36
5. Additional Fund Information Pages 37-41
Executive Summary
• Global Macro Hedge Fund – A discretionary investment strategy taking advantage of the recent
and significant activities across consumer and governmental contributions to the economy around
the world.
• Maximizing Liquidity – Utilizing highly liquid exchange-traded & over-the-counter products
across G20 rates, currencies, commodities and equity derivatives.
• Trade Construction - Identification and selection of best risk reward opportunities.
• Portfolio Construction – Correlation of asset classes as well as individual trades to the portfolio
will be stressed. This targets positively skewed investments that are also designed to reduce
overall portfolio risk
• Volatility Based Strategies – The fund will dedicate a significant portion of resources to volatility
products. These strategies can improve the quality of returns through timely & efficient trade
management, provide for an effective use of leverage, and better overall portfolio risk
management.
• Cross Asset Opportunities – Investments cross asset classes to take advantage of differing
value propositions for similar market outcomes.
• Alpha Generation –This provides the fund ample ability to trade across more asset classes and
generate synergies above and beyond the classic global macro strategies.
4
Firm Overview
• The Next Generation of Global Macro - A New York based investment management firm
specializing in strategies that build upon classic global macro trends and the new world order
found in the more highly regulated and “manipulated” markets of today.
• Long History - A 5 person management team that has over 75 years of experience within the
financial industry1. Additionally, the team has worked together, as both colleagues and in a
client/service-provider relationship, for over a decade. This is a rare combination within the market
and allows for the transition of this successful partnership to a new venture that can monetize this
as a competitive advantage.
• Unique Experience – The team consists of individuals within experience that makes them
uniquely able to generate alpha through this enhanced global macro strategy1:
– Senior level experience within a classic global macro fund strategy
– Successful management of one of the largest, unlevered portfolios in the US market (measured in duration). Guided the portfolio
through the most turbulent market conditions of the last 50 years to materially outperform the market in 2008.
– An unparalleled network throughout top-tier financial institutions around the globe with an uncommon view of the inner workings of
service providers.
– Proven ability to build successful and profitable businesses, even in the most challenging markets.
• Smaller is Better – Empirical evidence suggests that funds with smaller Assets-Under-
Management and management teams can get better liquidity and have provided better returns in
this market environment2. Additionally, with the Volcker Rule causing large banks to cut back on
risk taking with their own capital and other large Global Macro funds returning money to their
investors, the market is ripe for new entrants.
1Biographies located on Slide 7-8 of this presentation. Size of team is ultimately dependent on AUM
2Financial Times article dated March 6th, 2013 entitled: "Small Hedge Funds Outdo Elite Rivals"
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/22153026-8572-11e2-9ee3-00144feabdc0.html
5
6
Biographies …
 The team will be initially comprised of 5 senior, highly experienced investment professionals with
extensive Global Macro experience.
 Through their senior roles, the team has developed an international network of investment
professionals across many sell-side & buy-side institutions, and worked with a wide variety of
investors including; fund-of-funds, global insurance companies, retirement/pension plans
(institutional & philanthropic), banks, and asset managers.
◦ Co-Founder / Chief Investment Officer - Eric Leininger joined COMAC Capital, a global macro hedge fund in 2010 as
Head of Trading, becoming a partner in his first year. During his tenure, the fund’s AUM advanced from $3.2bn to
$5.9bn. At COMAC he implemented a disciplined global macro trading platform, advanced the investment process and
approach, introduced the strategic use of option structures and worked with investor relations in acquiring new
investors. Prior to joining COMAC, he was a Managing Director at Citigroup as the head of the firm’s rates and volatility
portfolio, responsible for the organization’s largest proprietary book. Prior to that he lead the Central Funding Desk in
its most turbulent time in history, successfully growing size and profit.
◦ Co-Founder / Head of Trading & Execution – Peter Ristine has over 18 years of experience in the financial industry with
a primary concentration in Fixed Income and Interest Rate Derivative products. Mr. Ristine began his career at Salomon
Brothers in Risk Management and eventually progressed to Interest Rate Volatility trading. In 2001, Mr. Ristine
transitioned to Sales, following the merger with Citibank, where he utilized his extensive trading & risk management
experience advising numerous institutional clients on interest rate risk management strategies, generating increasingly
positive P/L each year. After leaving Citi in 2009, Mr. Ristine spent time at Standard Chartered Bank and Société
Générale, as an account executive enhancing & globalizing his extensive network of contacts. Mr. Ristine graduated
from the University of Florida in 1994 and is currently participating in the Chartered Financial Analyst program.
7
Biographies, continued …
◦ Portfolio Manager / Strategist – An experienced individual has been identified and has expressed interest in joining the
team. This individual has an extensive background in Foreign Exchange products and modeling. This individual prefers to
remain “unnamed” for the time being, while in their current position.
◦ Chief Operating Officer – An experienced individual has been identified and been approached about joining the team. This
person is a proven builder of successful businesses and extremely well connected throughout the financial industry. This
individual prefers to remain “unnamed” for the time being, while in their current position.
◦ Economist / Research – A well-known Economist currently working on the sell-side at a Wall Street firm has expressed
interest in leaving their current position and joining our team. This individual has an excellent track record of researching,
analyzing, and predicting global economic data and has an extensive network of contacts throughout the industry. This
individual prefers to remain “unnamed” for the time being, while in their current position.
◦ Analyst / Quant - To Be Determined
8
Jan Feb March April May June July August Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD
2005 0.2% 1.7% 0.1% -0.5% -0.2% -1.3% 3.4% 0.1% -0.1% -1.7% 1.7% 8.0% 11.3%
2006 -0.5% -0.1% -0.2% -0.3% 0.6% 0.0% -0.1% 3.4% 1.7% 0.5% 5.3% -5.9% 4.5%
2007 -1.6% 2.0% -0.5% 0.5% -3.4% 3.2% -0.8% 2.3% -1.3% -0.2% 0.2% 3.4% 3.6%
2008 0.0% 3.4% 0.7% 1.5% -1.5% 0.4% -2.0% -0.3% 0.0% 2.1% 3.2% 7.4% 15.0%
2009 -1.9% -0.7% 2.3% -1.8% -1.0% -1.1% 1.5% 1.7% 1.6% -0.2% 5.1% -3.3% 2.3%
2010 5.3% 0.5% 5.7%
Cumulative Return1 42.5% Best Month 8.0%
Average Annual Return 7.3% Worst Month -5.9%
Volatility 2.4% Largest Drawdown (Dec ‘06 – May ‘07) -8.8%
Ex-post Information Ratio 2.9 Months to Recovery 7
1Portfolio is unlevered (100% fully funded), gross of fees, and any capital appreciation is NOT reinvested.
Asset classes in portfolio limited to OTC Fixed Income Derivatives and Exchange-traded Fixed Income products.
Source: unaudited internal Citigroup data (authentication available upon request)
Capital is calculated against drawdown and risk measures.
• Macro Economic Analysis and Theme Identification
– Demographics, politics, fiscal and monetary policies, inflation, balance
sheets, credit, employment, productivity
• Investment Analysis and Trade Implementation
– Themes, pricing, trends, valuation (carry, roll, volatility), skewed risk
reward investment analysis, cross-asset construction
• Quantitative Portfolio Construction
– Liquidity, diversity, correlation, carry, volatility based sizing, appropriate
leverage, action plans
• Risk Management
– Value At Risk (VAR), draw-down triggers, liquidity, transparency,
“Greeks”, correlation changes, scenario analysis and stress testing, end-
to-end controls
9
Macro Economic Analysis
and Theme Identification
 Macro Investment strategies seek to anticipate broad asset trends in worldwide economics and
markets. The prior several decades has witnesses incredible change that will influence the near,
medium and long term investment returns. Examples of these types of themes over the past decade
include:
◦ A more integrated labor force as communism fell and emerging market countries moved towards capitalism
◦ A surge in the general growth of global productivity as technology advances were created and adopted
◦ Massive credit growth as the demand for investment mushroomed.
◦ Misallocation of capital into non productive assets, especially real estate
◦ Interconnectedness of the global economy
 The future offers considerable macro investment themes and investment opportunities:
◦ Financial crisis – Fiscal shifts and trends
◦ Deleveraging – Of the financial and consumer sectors primarily in developed markets. How, when and what
methods used to deleverage are key questions that will continue to influence assets.
◦ Sovereign crisis –Sovereign leveraging
◦ Aggressive monetary policy – Massive divergences in policy responses between various central banks and
ongoing development and use of new policies
◦ Developing market growth – Will continue to see long-term higher growth rates
◦ Productivity advances – technology and business processes continue to exhibit strong productivity gains
◦ Deflation and Inflation – Deleveraging and lower labor costs will contribute to deflation while aggressive
monetary policy will contribute to cost push and some specific asset inflation
 Finding the right investment expression that matches the analysis is an important interactive step
10
Additional information in ‘Appendix 1’ beginning on Slide #15
11
 We believe that there are 3 potential outcomes from these key
economic variables:
1. Nirvana: Policies work, balance sheets are repaired, growth returns and
unemployment falls
2. Chaos: Monetary and Fiscal policy lose effectiveness, the Euro collapses, growth
turns more significantly negative, unemployment soars and a liquidity trap grips
the global economy
3. Disorganization: A long period of low growth, very slow deleveraging, higher
unemployment supplemented with growing wealth transfers, political gridlock,
ineffective fiscal policies, continued activist central banks, very low nominal rates
 Our base case is that we will have a disorganized investment
environment for the near to medium term.
 A successful investment strategy will have a strong foundation of
a thematic approach, excellent trade selection, quantitative
portfolio construction and robust risk management.
12
Investment Analysis and
Trade Implementation
 Lower growth, high unemployment and slower deleveraging can be quite positive
for many, but not all asset classes.
◦ Fixed Income will price lower rates for longer and continued Quantitative Easing from a variety of
Central Banks. This will provide a range trading environment often at higher levels.
◦ Equity prices can move higher. Free cash flows will be discounted on lower rates. Higher earning
will be possible from continued lower labor costs and higher productivity. Earnings multiples will
most likely remain low, but will not likely move lower. Favor EM and DM economies that are able to
generate superior relative growth.
◦ Foreign Exchange movements will track those economies that have more successful QE and growth.
Favor the USD over other major currencies and generally EM currencies that are able to generate
domestic consumption.
◦ Commodity prices will remain low or even fall as cost-push inflation will remain muted
 Active central banks with disorganized fiscal policies should result in lower
realized asset price volatility with periods of implied volatility spikes. This will
provide significant opportunities view option strategies.
 Risks to this view
◦ Watch for 1970 type price fixing and tariffs that will translate to higher inflation
◦ Political risks that heighten nationalism and result in damaging trade and investment policies.
◦ Fiscal and regulatory changes that give governments control over larger parts of the economy.
◦ Exogenous shock such as war, terror disease that increases unemployment or lowers confidence
Additional information in ‘Appendix 2’ beginning on Slide #22
13
Quantitative Portfolio
Construction
 The portfolio is generally constructed with:
◦ 5 or more macro themes
◦ 10 to 20 positively skewed investments that exhibit low correlation
◦ An investment horizon from a few days to six months or more
 Once an investment has been identified it must undergo further rigorous
examination before it can be added to the portfolio.
 Inputs to our Quantitative Portfolio Construction Framework include:
◦ Skew of the trade – Expected outcomes are weighed to increase the risk-to-reward ratio with a
target objective of1:3.
◦ Volatility or VaR based allocation to ensure correct weighting in the portfolio.
◦ Historic and Expected Correlation of trade to portfolio to ensure that as investments are added that
negative P&L risk is reduced
◦ Stop Losses and action triggers to provide effective management of the trade
Additional information in ‘Appendix 3’ beginning on Slide #28
14
Risk Management
 Measures
◦ VaR: Historical daily VaR at 95%, 2 year look back with tail analysis.
◦ Leverage: Notional derivatives leverage / NAV
◦ Correlations: between asset classes, portfolios strategies and markets
◦ Exposures: DV01, Notional, Greeks
◦ Stress Tests: Historic and generic
◦ Draw downs: Risk reduction process at 5% and 10% drawdown levels
 Controls
◦ VaR: Run at an average of 1% daily VaR with a cap at 2%
◦ Greeks: Delta and Vega limits
◦ P&L: Peak to trough reduction of at least 1/3 risk at 4% and another 1/3 reduction at 8%
◦ Liquidity: Retain the ability to liquidate entire portfolio in three trading days
◦ Asset Class: Commodities or Equities will not comprise more than 20% of the portfolio by
VaR weighting. No physical commodities.
 Risk Process
◦ Risk Team: Risk managed by the desk and by independent risk manager
◦ Risk Calculations: using a combination of external and internal risk management tools
◦ Daily Reviews with Weekly Formal Reports
◦ Top down and bottom up – connect risk to trades
Appendix 1
15
Macro Economic Analysis
and Theme Identification
•Demographics
•Politics
•Fiscal and Monetary policies
•Inflation
•Balance sheets
•Credit
•Employment
•Productivity
16
1. The financial crisis remains and deleveraging will continue. Developed
government balance sheets will deteriorate until consumers stop retrenching
McKinsey Quarterly, June 2012
Expansion of ‘Macro Economic Analysis & Theme Identification’ Slide #10
17
2. The large output gap will remain for years and will have a lasting impact on
unemployment, labor compensation and inflation.
Expansion of ‘Macro Economic Analysis & Theme Identification’ Slide #10
18
 The output gap is strongly influenced by the unemployment rate and the
participation rate
 The participation rate has been falling steadily.
 The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts demographics will cut
another 2% off of the participation rate by 2020.
 We believe we will see lower
unemployment, but
continued output gap as
jobs are not created.
 We believe the Fed will watch
this closely and will continue
to use Quantitative Easing.
Expansion of ‘Macro Economic Analysis & Theme Identification’ Slide #10
19
3. Central banks will increase their monetary policy activities to accommodate
unemployment and attempt to ward off deflation.
International Monetary Fund
Expansion of ‘Macro Economic Analysis & Theme Identification’ Slide #10
20
4. However, the Fed will begin to remove the negative risk premium in the
market. This will drive real rates higher and inflation lower. Expect short
end rates to stay low.
From Chairman Bernanke’s March 1, 2013 Annual Monetary Conference speech
Expansion of ‘Macro Economic Analysis & Theme Identification’ Slide #10
21
5. An increased role of government in the economy will include higher taxes, more
wealth transfers, currency management and chaotic fiscal & regulatory actions.
Expansion of ‘Macro Economic Analysis & Theme Identification’ Slide #10
22
Appendix 2
Investment Analysis and
Trade Implementation
•Investment themes
•Market pricing
•Market trends
•Asset valuation (carry, roll, volatility)
•Skewed risk reward investment analysis
23
US Fixed Income
Long-tenor Fixed Income markets in the US and Europe will begin to move lower
as real rates increase and term premium is added back into market pricing.
Expansion of ‘Investment Analysis & Trade Implementation’ Slide #12
24
USD Forward Rate Steepener
While the Fed will be on hold for a very long time, pricing in the market is
inconsistent with the Board’s language. A positive carrying forward steepener
trade provides income for the portfolio and protection for long fixed income
during periods when rates move higher.
Expansion of ‘Investment Analysis & Trade Implementation’ Slide #12
25
Long US Equities Short AUDUSD
The Australian market appears appropriately priced with the RBA on hold,
inflation tame and unemployment okay. Global outperformance should come
from US Equity outperformance. We quite like how the US equity market
displays lower volatility relative to AUDUSD.
Expansion of ‘Investment Analysis & Trade Implementation’ Slide #12
26
Long the Dollar
The USD will a move to higher real rate and current valuation will steadily
increase in value against a basked of currencies.
Expansion of ‘Investment Analysis & Trade Implementation’ Slide #12
27
Negative Commodities
Commodity pricing will continue to weaken from lower demand, higher dollar
and more efficient demand use. There will be many investment opportunities
using option structures for neutral or negative outcomes.
Expansion of ‘Investment Analysis & Trade Implementation’ Slide #12
28
Appendix 3
Quantitative Portfolio
Construction
•Liquidity
•Diversity
•Correlation
•Carry
•Volatility & correlation based sizing
•Appropriate leverage
•Action plans
29
 The portfolio function: Maximize Returns / Minimize Return
Volatility
 Maximizing Returns is derivate from appropriate application of
◦ Assets price risk (Delta),
◦ change in price risk (Gamma and Vega),
◦ valuation relative to other asset classes
 Returns can be generated through other factors such as credit and
liquidity risk, however, we generally seek to minimize these risks.
Returns can also be generated through timing, but empirically this is
a zero return activity.
 Minimizing Portfolio Return Volatility is achieved through
◦ Diversification of positive skewed assets that have a low or negative expected correlation
◦ Reduce draw downs via specific trade actions as well as risk reductions at >2.5% daily, a 5% rolling
and, again at 10% rolling.
◦ Reduce tail outcomes through stress and scenario analysis. This is assessed by analysis of VAR left
tail distribution.
Expansion of ‘Quantitative Portfolio Construction’ Slide #13
30
 This provides the following framework:
 Thus:
◦ Expected Returns T1-T0 = ((Delta * Expected Price Change) + (Vega & Gamma * Expected Volatility
Change) + (Valuation Deviation * Change in Valuation)) * T1-T0
◦ Expected Return Volatility T1-T0 = (Return Correlation * Change in Correlation) + (Expected Stop Losses) +
(Expected Stress Losses) + (Expected Scenarios)
 This framework allows us to assess what is the best expression of
investment while managing the risks. This also provides for a consistent
post period return analysis
Expansion of ‘Quantitative Portfolio Construction’ Slide #13
31
 As discussed earlier, given our Macro Themes, we believe that Fixed
Income is set to rally further. However, our valuation framework
identified that the forward curve was at an extreme level. Finally,
our Gamma analysis showed that while implied volatility was
generally low, at time of Fixed Income stress, Implied jumped
significantly over historical.
 Our return framework allowed us to create the following positive
skewed returns Fixed Income portfolio
◦ Long US Fixed Income (Delta) through 10yr Note Futures with VaR at 33 - 66 bps
◦ Long US Eurodollar Futures Curve (Valuation)
◦ Short 1 month OTM Puts (Gamma) on Implied Volatility spikes > 1.5% to Historic
 Our Volatility framework determined that:
◦ Expected Correlation was negative for the first two investments, very low for the third
◦ Stop losses were at 33bps
◦ Stress and Scenario loss analysis was at 1.5% and 2.0%
Expansion of ‘Quantitative Portfolio Construction’ Slide #13
32
Our Fixed Income Portfolio
Taken together, these trades produce positive skewed outcomes, reduce return
volatility and allow up to increase the overall returns as lower correlation
between trades allows us to increase the overall size of the portfolio.
Expansion of ‘Quantitative Portfolio Construction’ Slide #13
33
Fixed Income,
50%
FX, 30%
Commodities,
10%
Equities, 10%
Eventual Asset Class
Composition (as % of VaR)
 Initial Investment Strategies in
Exchange Traded Futures and
Options:
◦ Fixed Income
◦ Foreign Exchange
◦ Equities
 Subsequent Strategies to
include:
◦ OTC Fixed Income
◦ OTC FX Options
◦ Exchange Traded Commodity
Futures and Options
Expansion of ‘Quantitative Portfolio Construction’ Slide #13
34
Fixed Income
50% of VAR
Equities
20% of VAR
Foreign Exchange
30% of VAR
•Long Eurodollar forward
steepener
•Short OTM 10 year Note futures
put spreads on dips
•Long equity futures in covered
call strategy
•Short OTM VIX puts
•Short OTM put spreads on dips
•Short EURUSD
•Short USDMXN
•Short AUDUSD vs. S&P above
Portfolio weighting driven by current and expect correlations and volatility pricing.
Expansion of ‘Quantitative Portfolio Construction’ Slide #13
Appendix 4
35
A theoretical exercise designed to take the aforementioned,
actual Performance History, apply leverage and display
returns with capital appreciation reinvested.
36
Jan Feb March April May June July August Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD
2005 0.03% 3.03% -0.17% -1.37% -0.77% -2.97% 6.43% -0.17% -0.57% -3.77% 3.03% 15.63% 18.40%
2006 -1.37% -0.57% -0.77% -0.97% 0.83% -0.37% -0.57% 6.43% 3.03% 0.63% 10.23% -12.17% 4.40%
2007 -3.57% 3.63% -1.37% 0.63% -7.17% 6.03% -1.97% 4.23% -2.97% -0.77% 0.03% 6.43% 3.20%
2008 -0.37% 6.43% 1.03% 2.63% -3.37% 0.43% -4.37% -0.97% -0.37% 3.83% 6.03% 14.43% 25.40%
2009 -4.17% -1.77% 4.23% -3.97% -2.37% -2.57% 2.63% 3.03% 2.83% -0.77% 9.83% -6.97% 0.00%
2010 10.23% 0.63% 10.87%
Geometric Return2 73.3% Best Month 15.6%
Average Annual Return 10.4% Worst Month -12.1%
Volatility 4.8% Largest Drawdown (Dec ‘06 – May ‘07) -20.0%
Ex-post Information Ratio 2.15 Months to Recovery 11
2Portfolio is presented pro forma, net of a 2% per annum Management Fee, and assumes reinvestment of income, and
is therefore hypothetical in that respect. Hypothetical results have inherent limitations. No representation is being made
that the Fund will or is likely to achieve returns similar to those shown. Transactions involve substantial risk of loss.
Appendix 5
37
38
Key Terms:
Domicile: Cayman Islands
Investment Manager:
Minimum Investment:
Management Fee: 2.0% (Discounts for Founder / Early Entry Share Classes)
Performance Fee: 20.0%
Subscription: Monthly
Redemption: Monthly (with 20 Business Days Notice)
Lock: 3.0% in the first year, declining 1.0% annually
Side Pocket: None
Service Providers:
Prime Broker: Citibank / Barclays / Credit Suisse / To Be Determined
Administrator: US Bancorp Fund Services / AIS Fund Administration Ltd.
Auditor: To Be Determined
Legal Advisors: To Be Determined
Fund Analytics: ENSO Financial Management / To Be Determined
ISDA Negotiation: Avalon Lake Partners / To Be Determined
Compliance: Avalon Lake Partners / To Be Determined
39
Eric Leininger:
Cellular Phone: (973) 615-4819
E-mail: eric.leininger@zaratancapital.com
Peter Ristine:
Cellular Phone: (917) 941-3368
E-mail: peter.ristine@zaratancapital.com
Investor Relations:
E-mail: investor.relations@zaratancapital.com
40
The Fund is speculative and performance may be volatile. Positions in the Fund may be highly leveraged. A small change in the
market price of a position can produce major losses for the Fund. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or
her investment. Regardless of trading performance, the Fund will incur fees and expenses, including brokerage and
management fees. An investment in the Fund provides limited liquidity since withdrawal/redemption rights are limited and not
freely transferable. There is no secondary market for the interests in the Fund and none are expected to develop. A portion of
the trades executed for the Fund may take place on foreign exchanges.
No representation is made that the Fund will or is likely to achieve its investment objective, or that any investor will or is likely
to achieve results comparable to those shown, or will make a profit, or will be able to avoid incurring substantial losses. Past
performance is guarantee of future results. Return targets or objectives and/or index and benchmark performance are
presented for illustration purposes only. Targeted returns are not intended to be actual performance and cannot be relied upon
as an indication of actual or future performance.
The Fund’s investments are selected by, and will vary in the sole discretion of, the Fund Manager. Investments are subject to
availability and market conditions, among other things. The Fund Manager has broad discretion to increase or decrease
exposures in the Fund in its sole discretion. Thus, while exposures and leverage rates that may be presented in this document
might be accurate as of the date of the presentation, such ranges may vary widely from time to time. The description herein of
the Funds’ investments, investment process, or investment strategies and styles may not be fully indicative of any present of
future investments, and may be changed in the sole discretion of the Fund Manager. The Fund may invest in foreign securities
and may employ a variety of investment techniques such as options trading, the use of leverage, and short selling strategies;
each of which involves special investment and risk considerations. Investments in the Fund are intended for sophisticated
investors only, as defined by law. Certain investors in the Fund may be subject to preferential terms.
The above summary is not a complete list of the risks and other important disclosures involved in investing in the Fund and are
subject to more complete disclosures contained in the Funds’ respective offering documents, articles, and partnership
agreements which must be reviewed carefully.
This document has been prepared by Zaratan Capital Management, LLC (the “Fund Manager”) and is for private
circulation. The information contained in this document is strictly confidential and intended for informational
purposes only. This document is intended for distribution only to the recipient. Distribution of this document to any
person other than the person to whom this information was originally delivered and/or such person’s advisors is
unauthorized and strictly prohibited. Any reproduction of these materials, in whole or in part, or the disclosure of
any of the contents without prior written consent of the Fund Manager in each such instance is prohibited.
Securities shall not be offered or sold in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful
until the requirements of the law of such jurisdiction have been satisfied. These materials are not intended for
distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use is
contrary to local law or regulation.
This document shall not constitute an offer to but or the solicitation of any offer to sell any security and should not
be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities. If you express an interesting in
investing in the Fund, you will be provided with a confidential offering memorandum, subscription agreement, and
any additional related memorandum (the “Fund Documents”). You must review, and rely on, the information and the
risk factors disclosed in the Fund Documents in making your decision to invest. The information contained herein is
not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment
recommendations. Please consult your tax, legal, accounting, or other advisors about the matters discussed herein.
All information contained herein has been prepared by the Fund Manager, unless otherwise noted. No
representation or warranty, express or implied, is given to the accuracy or completeness of the information or
opinions contained in this document. The document is provided for informational purposes only as of the date
hereof, may not contain material information about the Fund, and is subject to change without notice.
41Prepared for Samson Wang on 10/23/2013

More Related Content

What's hot

Presentacion Threadneedle: Funds Experience 2016
Presentacion Threadneedle: Funds Experience 2016Presentacion Threadneedle: Funds Experience 2016
Presentacion Threadneedle: Funds Experience 2016
Rankia
 
Are Australian investors sufficiently diversified?
Are Australian investors sufficiently diversified?Are Australian investors sufficiently diversified?
Are Australian investors sufficiently diversified?
netwealth Investment & Superannuation
 
Diversifying Away Equity Exposure
Diversifying Away Equity ExposureDiversifying Away Equity Exposure
Diversifying Away Equity Exposure
Windham Labs
 
Presentation - Ashton Global LLC
Presentation - Ashton Global LLCPresentation - Ashton Global LLC
Presentation - Ashton Global LLC
Ashton Global
 
Hilltop decorrelated fund august 2013 factsheet
Hilltop decorrelated fund august 2013 factsheetHilltop decorrelated fund august 2013 factsheet
Hilltop decorrelated fund august 2013 factsheet
John Robertson
 
Psg flexible fund 20100930
Psg flexible fund   20100930Psg flexible fund   20100930
Psg flexible fund 20100930
Crate
 
Stanlib Group
Stanlib GroupStanlib Group
Getting Back on Track - NoLoad FundX
Getting Back on Track - NoLoad FundXGetting Back on Track - NoLoad FundX
Getting Back on Track - NoLoad FundX
noloadfundx
 
Portfolio Construction and Evaluation
Portfolio Construction and EvaluationPortfolio Construction and Evaluation
Portfolio Construction and Evaluation
Windham Labs
 
Hilltop decorrelated fund october 2013 factsheet
Hilltop decorrelated fund october 2013 factsheetHilltop decorrelated fund october 2013 factsheet
Hilltop decorrelated fund october 2013 factsheet
John Robertson
 
Olympic Wealth Fund, 'Javelin' Fund fact sheet class 'B' February 2015
Olympic Wealth Fund, 'Javelin' Fund fact sheet class 'B' February 2015Olympic Wealth Fund, 'Javelin' Fund fact sheet class 'B' February 2015
Olympic Wealth Fund, 'Javelin' Fund fact sheet class 'B' February 2015
Olympic Wealth Fund
 
DSP Global Allocation Fund
DSP Global Allocation FundDSP Global Allocation Fund
DSP Global Allocation Fund
DSP Mutual Fund
 
SF Brochure Sept 2016
SF Brochure Sept 2016SF Brochure Sept 2016
SF Brochure Sept 2016
Richard Smith
 
Lipper_Award
Lipper_AwardLipper_Award
Lipper_Award
Matthew Cohen, CFP®
 
Gauging Institutional Interest and the Role of Regulated Investment Funds in ...
Gauging Institutional Interest and the Role of Regulated Investment Funds in ...Gauging Institutional Interest and the Role of Regulated Investment Funds in ...
Gauging Institutional Interest and the Role of Regulated Investment Funds in ...
Investments Network marcus evans
 
Internationalized Investment Reporting
Internationalized Investment ReportingInternationalized Investment Reporting
Internationalized Investment Reporting
jbsbear2002
 
Bankhall Conference 2009 - Skandia
Bankhall Conference 2009 - SkandiaBankhall Conference 2009 - Skandia
Bankhall Conference 2009 - Skandia
Bankhall
 
Prescient
PrescientPrescient
Denker Capital
Denker CapitalDenker Capital

What's hot (19)

Presentacion Threadneedle: Funds Experience 2016
Presentacion Threadneedle: Funds Experience 2016Presentacion Threadneedle: Funds Experience 2016
Presentacion Threadneedle: Funds Experience 2016
 
Are Australian investors sufficiently diversified?
Are Australian investors sufficiently diversified?Are Australian investors sufficiently diversified?
Are Australian investors sufficiently diversified?
 
Diversifying Away Equity Exposure
Diversifying Away Equity ExposureDiversifying Away Equity Exposure
Diversifying Away Equity Exposure
 
Presentation - Ashton Global LLC
Presentation - Ashton Global LLCPresentation - Ashton Global LLC
Presentation - Ashton Global LLC
 
Hilltop decorrelated fund august 2013 factsheet
Hilltop decorrelated fund august 2013 factsheetHilltop decorrelated fund august 2013 factsheet
Hilltop decorrelated fund august 2013 factsheet
 
Psg flexible fund 20100930
Psg flexible fund   20100930Psg flexible fund   20100930
Psg flexible fund 20100930
 
Stanlib Group
Stanlib GroupStanlib Group
Stanlib Group
 
Getting Back on Track - NoLoad FundX
Getting Back on Track - NoLoad FundXGetting Back on Track - NoLoad FundX
Getting Back on Track - NoLoad FundX
 
Portfolio Construction and Evaluation
Portfolio Construction and EvaluationPortfolio Construction and Evaluation
Portfolio Construction and Evaluation
 
Hilltop decorrelated fund october 2013 factsheet
Hilltop decorrelated fund october 2013 factsheetHilltop decorrelated fund october 2013 factsheet
Hilltop decorrelated fund october 2013 factsheet
 
Olympic Wealth Fund, 'Javelin' Fund fact sheet class 'B' February 2015
Olympic Wealth Fund, 'Javelin' Fund fact sheet class 'B' February 2015Olympic Wealth Fund, 'Javelin' Fund fact sheet class 'B' February 2015
Olympic Wealth Fund, 'Javelin' Fund fact sheet class 'B' February 2015
 
DSP Global Allocation Fund
DSP Global Allocation FundDSP Global Allocation Fund
DSP Global Allocation Fund
 
SF Brochure Sept 2016
SF Brochure Sept 2016SF Brochure Sept 2016
SF Brochure Sept 2016
 
Lipper_Award
Lipper_AwardLipper_Award
Lipper_Award
 
Gauging Institutional Interest and the Role of Regulated Investment Funds in ...
Gauging Institutional Interest and the Role of Regulated Investment Funds in ...Gauging Institutional Interest and the Role of Regulated Investment Funds in ...
Gauging Institutional Interest and the Role of Regulated Investment Funds in ...
 
Internationalized Investment Reporting
Internationalized Investment ReportingInternationalized Investment Reporting
Internationalized Investment Reporting
 
Bankhall Conference 2009 - Skandia
Bankhall Conference 2009 - SkandiaBankhall Conference 2009 - Skandia
Bankhall Conference 2009 - Skandia
 
Prescient
PrescientPrescient
Prescient
 
Denker Capital
Denker CapitalDenker Capital
Denker Capital
 

Similar to Zaratan Investment Process

Investment presentation
Investment presentationInvestment presentation
Investment presentation
Jakarta Business Networkers
 
How Private Wealth Managers Can Capitalize on any Market Environment-Gershi...
  How Private Wealth Managers Can Capitalize on any Market Environment-Gershi...  How Private Wealth Managers Can Capitalize on any Market Environment-Gershi...
How Private Wealth Managers Can Capitalize on any Market Environment-Gershi...
Investments Network marcus evans
 
Tim resume 2018
Tim resume 2018Tim resume 2018
Tim resume 2018
Timothy Tan
 
Nova jul2011 ytd
Nova jul2011 ytdNova jul2011 ytd
Nova jul2011 ytd
chardingsmith
 
Introduction to Theme Based Investing
Introduction to Theme Based InvestingIntroduction to Theme Based Investing
Introduction to Theme Based Investing
Gene Balas, CFA
 
Building an Unconstrained Sleeve
Building an Unconstrained SleeveBuilding an Unconstrained Sleeve
Building an Unconstrained Sleeve
Corey Hoffstein
 
Final project portfolio investor
Final project portfolio investorFinal project portfolio investor
Final project portfolio investor
PavaNR R
 
PRO_CaseStudy_Aspiriant
PRO_CaseStudy_AspiriantPRO_CaseStudy_Aspiriant
PRO_CaseStudy_Aspiriant
Joseph Clark
 
1610-2102559_Global Private Equity Watch 2017 FINAL
1610-2102559_Global Private Equity Watch 2017 FINAL1610-2102559_Global Private Equity Watch 2017 FINAL
1610-2102559_Global Private Equity Watch 2017 FINAL
Peter Witte
 
Cedar Portfolio Impact Investing Model Portfolio Dec 18 2019
Cedar Portfolio Impact Investing Model Portfolio Dec 18 2019Cedar Portfolio Impact Investing Model Portfolio Dec 18 2019
Cedar Portfolio Impact Investing Model Portfolio Dec 18 2019
cedarportfolio
 
True-Insight-Spring-2016-1
True-Insight-Spring-2016-1True-Insight-Spring-2016-1
True-Insight-Spring-2016-1
Barrie Kent
 
IPP Investment Team
IPP Investment TeamIPP Investment Team
IPP Investment Team
Sam Booth
 
Volatility Arbitrage Fund
Volatility Arbitrage FundVolatility Arbitrage Fund
Volatility Arbitrage Fund
Charles Krueger
 
Kayleigh Baker - Unlocking Investment and Finance in EMDEs Final Project
Kayleigh Baker -  Unlocking Investment and Finance in EMDEs Final ProjectKayleigh Baker -  Unlocking Investment and Finance in EMDEs Final Project
Kayleigh Baker - Unlocking Investment and Finance in EMDEs Final Project
Kayleigh Baker
 
The Portfolio Management Process.ppt
The Portfolio Management Process.pptThe Portfolio Management Process.ppt
The Portfolio Management Process.ppt
Yinka Daramola
 
Cedar Model Portfolio Services Information Packet June 19 2019
Cedar Model Portfolio Services Information Packet June 19 2019Cedar Model Portfolio Services Information Packet June 19 2019
Cedar Model Portfolio Services Information Packet June 19 2019
cedarportfolio
 
Seismic shifts in investment management. How will the industry respond?
Seismic shifts in investment management. How will the industry respond?Seismic shifts in investment management. How will the industry respond?
Seismic shifts in investment management. How will the industry respond?
The Economist Media Businesses
 
Seismic shifts in investment management - Deloitte report June 2014
Seismic shifts in investment management - Deloitte report June 2014Seismic shifts in investment management - Deloitte report June 2014
Seismic shifts in investment management - Deloitte report June 2014
Andrew Power
 
Kijana Mack - Ashton Global Presentation
Kijana Mack - Ashton Global PresentationKijana Mack - Ashton Global Presentation
Kijana Mack - Ashton Global Presentation
Kijana Mack
 
TRADE LIKE A HEDGE FUND - Harness the Power Of Technology to Gain Market Edge...
TRADE LIKE A HEDGE FUND - Harness the Power Of Technology to Gain Market Edge...TRADE LIKE A HEDGE FUND - Harness the Power Of Technology to Gain Market Edge...
TRADE LIKE A HEDGE FUND - Harness the Power Of Technology to Gain Market Edge...
Geoffrey Hossie
 

Similar to Zaratan Investment Process (20)

Investment presentation
Investment presentationInvestment presentation
Investment presentation
 
How Private Wealth Managers Can Capitalize on any Market Environment-Gershi...
  How Private Wealth Managers Can Capitalize on any Market Environment-Gershi...  How Private Wealth Managers Can Capitalize on any Market Environment-Gershi...
How Private Wealth Managers Can Capitalize on any Market Environment-Gershi...
 
Tim resume 2018
Tim resume 2018Tim resume 2018
Tim resume 2018
 
Nova jul2011 ytd
Nova jul2011 ytdNova jul2011 ytd
Nova jul2011 ytd
 
Introduction to Theme Based Investing
Introduction to Theme Based InvestingIntroduction to Theme Based Investing
Introduction to Theme Based Investing
 
Building an Unconstrained Sleeve
Building an Unconstrained SleeveBuilding an Unconstrained Sleeve
Building an Unconstrained Sleeve
 
Final project portfolio investor
Final project portfolio investorFinal project portfolio investor
Final project portfolio investor
 
PRO_CaseStudy_Aspiriant
PRO_CaseStudy_AspiriantPRO_CaseStudy_Aspiriant
PRO_CaseStudy_Aspiriant
 
1610-2102559_Global Private Equity Watch 2017 FINAL
1610-2102559_Global Private Equity Watch 2017 FINAL1610-2102559_Global Private Equity Watch 2017 FINAL
1610-2102559_Global Private Equity Watch 2017 FINAL
 
Cedar Portfolio Impact Investing Model Portfolio Dec 18 2019
Cedar Portfolio Impact Investing Model Portfolio Dec 18 2019Cedar Portfolio Impact Investing Model Portfolio Dec 18 2019
Cedar Portfolio Impact Investing Model Portfolio Dec 18 2019
 
True-Insight-Spring-2016-1
True-Insight-Spring-2016-1True-Insight-Spring-2016-1
True-Insight-Spring-2016-1
 
IPP Investment Team
IPP Investment TeamIPP Investment Team
IPP Investment Team
 
Volatility Arbitrage Fund
Volatility Arbitrage FundVolatility Arbitrage Fund
Volatility Arbitrage Fund
 
Kayleigh Baker - Unlocking Investment and Finance in EMDEs Final Project
Kayleigh Baker -  Unlocking Investment and Finance in EMDEs Final ProjectKayleigh Baker -  Unlocking Investment and Finance in EMDEs Final Project
Kayleigh Baker - Unlocking Investment and Finance in EMDEs Final Project
 
The Portfolio Management Process.ppt
The Portfolio Management Process.pptThe Portfolio Management Process.ppt
The Portfolio Management Process.ppt
 
Cedar Model Portfolio Services Information Packet June 19 2019
Cedar Model Portfolio Services Information Packet June 19 2019Cedar Model Portfolio Services Information Packet June 19 2019
Cedar Model Portfolio Services Information Packet June 19 2019
 
Seismic shifts in investment management. How will the industry respond?
Seismic shifts in investment management. How will the industry respond?Seismic shifts in investment management. How will the industry respond?
Seismic shifts in investment management. How will the industry respond?
 
Seismic shifts in investment management - Deloitte report June 2014
Seismic shifts in investment management - Deloitte report June 2014Seismic shifts in investment management - Deloitte report June 2014
Seismic shifts in investment management - Deloitte report June 2014
 
Kijana Mack - Ashton Global Presentation
Kijana Mack - Ashton Global PresentationKijana Mack - Ashton Global Presentation
Kijana Mack - Ashton Global Presentation
 
TRADE LIKE A HEDGE FUND - Harness the Power Of Technology to Gain Market Edge...
TRADE LIKE A HEDGE FUND - Harness the Power Of Technology to Gain Market Edge...TRADE LIKE A HEDGE FUND - Harness the Power Of Technology to Gain Market Edge...
TRADE LIKE A HEDGE FUND - Harness the Power Of Technology to Gain Market Edge...
 

Zaratan Investment Process

  • 1. Global Optionality and Diversity www.zaratancapital.com
  • 2. Zaratan - large, legendary sea turtle capable of living for centuries; unaffected by ocean currents and often mistaken for an island, due to their substantial size. Like the Zaratan, our unique investment team has navigated dynamic environments successfully delivering positive returns with low volatility. In a world washed asunder by continued macro and political currents, our investment process has stood the test of time and provides investors with stability, when markets appear unstable. The Zaratan team looks forward to assisting and growing with investors as we circumnavigate the global macro environment together. - Eric Leininger & Peter Ristine 2
  • 3. 3 Table of Contents A. Executive Summary Page 4 B. Zaratan Capital Management 1. Firm Overview Page 5 2. Management Team Pages 6-7 3. Performance History Page 8 C. Global Macro Fund 1. Investment Process Page 9 2. Macro Theme Identification & Analysis Pages 10-11 3. Investment & Trade Implementation Page 12 4. Portfolio Construction Page 13 5. Risk Management Page 14 D. Appendices 1. Macro Economic Analysis Points Pages 15-21 2. Trade Ideas & Implementation Pages 22-27 3. Portfolio Construction Framework Pages 28-34 4. Adding Leverage to Performance History Pages 35-36 5. Additional Fund Information Pages 37-41
  • 4. Executive Summary • Global Macro Hedge Fund – A discretionary investment strategy taking advantage of the recent and significant activities across consumer and governmental contributions to the economy around the world. • Maximizing Liquidity – Utilizing highly liquid exchange-traded & over-the-counter products across G20 rates, currencies, commodities and equity derivatives. • Trade Construction - Identification and selection of best risk reward opportunities. • Portfolio Construction – Correlation of asset classes as well as individual trades to the portfolio will be stressed. This targets positively skewed investments that are also designed to reduce overall portfolio risk • Volatility Based Strategies – The fund will dedicate a significant portion of resources to volatility products. These strategies can improve the quality of returns through timely & efficient trade management, provide for an effective use of leverage, and better overall portfolio risk management. • Cross Asset Opportunities – Investments cross asset classes to take advantage of differing value propositions for similar market outcomes. • Alpha Generation –This provides the fund ample ability to trade across more asset classes and generate synergies above and beyond the classic global macro strategies. 4
  • 5. Firm Overview • The Next Generation of Global Macro - A New York based investment management firm specializing in strategies that build upon classic global macro trends and the new world order found in the more highly regulated and “manipulated” markets of today. • Long History - A 5 person management team that has over 75 years of experience within the financial industry1. Additionally, the team has worked together, as both colleagues and in a client/service-provider relationship, for over a decade. This is a rare combination within the market and allows for the transition of this successful partnership to a new venture that can monetize this as a competitive advantage. • Unique Experience – The team consists of individuals within experience that makes them uniquely able to generate alpha through this enhanced global macro strategy1: – Senior level experience within a classic global macro fund strategy – Successful management of one of the largest, unlevered portfolios in the US market (measured in duration). Guided the portfolio through the most turbulent market conditions of the last 50 years to materially outperform the market in 2008. – An unparalleled network throughout top-tier financial institutions around the globe with an uncommon view of the inner workings of service providers. – Proven ability to build successful and profitable businesses, even in the most challenging markets. • Smaller is Better – Empirical evidence suggests that funds with smaller Assets-Under- Management and management teams can get better liquidity and have provided better returns in this market environment2. Additionally, with the Volcker Rule causing large banks to cut back on risk taking with their own capital and other large Global Macro funds returning money to their investors, the market is ripe for new entrants. 1Biographies located on Slide 7-8 of this presentation. Size of team is ultimately dependent on AUM 2Financial Times article dated March 6th, 2013 entitled: "Small Hedge Funds Outdo Elite Rivals" http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/22153026-8572-11e2-9ee3-00144feabdc0.html 5
  • 6. 6 Biographies …  The team will be initially comprised of 5 senior, highly experienced investment professionals with extensive Global Macro experience.  Through their senior roles, the team has developed an international network of investment professionals across many sell-side & buy-side institutions, and worked with a wide variety of investors including; fund-of-funds, global insurance companies, retirement/pension plans (institutional & philanthropic), banks, and asset managers. ◦ Co-Founder / Chief Investment Officer - Eric Leininger joined COMAC Capital, a global macro hedge fund in 2010 as Head of Trading, becoming a partner in his first year. During his tenure, the fund’s AUM advanced from $3.2bn to $5.9bn. At COMAC he implemented a disciplined global macro trading platform, advanced the investment process and approach, introduced the strategic use of option structures and worked with investor relations in acquiring new investors. Prior to joining COMAC, he was a Managing Director at Citigroup as the head of the firm’s rates and volatility portfolio, responsible for the organization’s largest proprietary book. Prior to that he lead the Central Funding Desk in its most turbulent time in history, successfully growing size and profit. ◦ Co-Founder / Head of Trading & Execution – Peter Ristine has over 18 years of experience in the financial industry with a primary concentration in Fixed Income and Interest Rate Derivative products. Mr. Ristine began his career at Salomon Brothers in Risk Management and eventually progressed to Interest Rate Volatility trading. In 2001, Mr. Ristine transitioned to Sales, following the merger with Citibank, where he utilized his extensive trading & risk management experience advising numerous institutional clients on interest rate risk management strategies, generating increasingly positive P/L each year. After leaving Citi in 2009, Mr. Ristine spent time at Standard Chartered Bank and Société Générale, as an account executive enhancing & globalizing his extensive network of contacts. Mr. Ristine graduated from the University of Florida in 1994 and is currently participating in the Chartered Financial Analyst program.
  • 7. 7 Biographies, continued … ◦ Portfolio Manager / Strategist – An experienced individual has been identified and has expressed interest in joining the team. This individual has an extensive background in Foreign Exchange products and modeling. This individual prefers to remain “unnamed” for the time being, while in their current position. ◦ Chief Operating Officer – An experienced individual has been identified and been approached about joining the team. This person is a proven builder of successful businesses and extremely well connected throughout the financial industry. This individual prefers to remain “unnamed” for the time being, while in their current position. ◦ Economist / Research – A well-known Economist currently working on the sell-side at a Wall Street firm has expressed interest in leaving their current position and joining our team. This individual has an excellent track record of researching, analyzing, and predicting global economic data and has an extensive network of contacts throughout the industry. This individual prefers to remain “unnamed” for the time being, while in their current position. ◦ Analyst / Quant - To Be Determined
  • 8. 8 Jan Feb March April May June July August Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD 2005 0.2% 1.7% 0.1% -0.5% -0.2% -1.3% 3.4% 0.1% -0.1% -1.7% 1.7% 8.0% 11.3% 2006 -0.5% -0.1% -0.2% -0.3% 0.6% 0.0% -0.1% 3.4% 1.7% 0.5% 5.3% -5.9% 4.5% 2007 -1.6% 2.0% -0.5% 0.5% -3.4% 3.2% -0.8% 2.3% -1.3% -0.2% 0.2% 3.4% 3.6% 2008 0.0% 3.4% 0.7% 1.5% -1.5% 0.4% -2.0% -0.3% 0.0% 2.1% 3.2% 7.4% 15.0% 2009 -1.9% -0.7% 2.3% -1.8% -1.0% -1.1% 1.5% 1.7% 1.6% -0.2% 5.1% -3.3% 2.3% 2010 5.3% 0.5% 5.7% Cumulative Return1 42.5% Best Month 8.0% Average Annual Return 7.3% Worst Month -5.9% Volatility 2.4% Largest Drawdown (Dec ‘06 – May ‘07) -8.8% Ex-post Information Ratio 2.9 Months to Recovery 7 1Portfolio is unlevered (100% fully funded), gross of fees, and any capital appreciation is NOT reinvested. Asset classes in portfolio limited to OTC Fixed Income Derivatives and Exchange-traded Fixed Income products. Source: unaudited internal Citigroup data (authentication available upon request) Capital is calculated against drawdown and risk measures.
  • 9. • Macro Economic Analysis and Theme Identification – Demographics, politics, fiscal and monetary policies, inflation, balance sheets, credit, employment, productivity • Investment Analysis and Trade Implementation – Themes, pricing, trends, valuation (carry, roll, volatility), skewed risk reward investment analysis, cross-asset construction • Quantitative Portfolio Construction – Liquidity, diversity, correlation, carry, volatility based sizing, appropriate leverage, action plans • Risk Management – Value At Risk (VAR), draw-down triggers, liquidity, transparency, “Greeks”, correlation changes, scenario analysis and stress testing, end- to-end controls 9
  • 10. Macro Economic Analysis and Theme Identification  Macro Investment strategies seek to anticipate broad asset trends in worldwide economics and markets. The prior several decades has witnesses incredible change that will influence the near, medium and long term investment returns. Examples of these types of themes over the past decade include: ◦ A more integrated labor force as communism fell and emerging market countries moved towards capitalism ◦ A surge in the general growth of global productivity as technology advances were created and adopted ◦ Massive credit growth as the demand for investment mushroomed. ◦ Misallocation of capital into non productive assets, especially real estate ◦ Interconnectedness of the global economy  The future offers considerable macro investment themes and investment opportunities: ◦ Financial crisis – Fiscal shifts and trends ◦ Deleveraging – Of the financial and consumer sectors primarily in developed markets. How, when and what methods used to deleverage are key questions that will continue to influence assets. ◦ Sovereign crisis –Sovereign leveraging ◦ Aggressive monetary policy – Massive divergences in policy responses between various central banks and ongoing development and use of new policies ◦ Developing market growth – Will continue to see long-term higher growth rates ◦ Productivity advances – technology and business processes continue to exhibit strong productivity gains ◦ Deflation and Inflation – Deleveraging and lower labor costs will contribute to deflation while aggressive monetary policy will contribute to cost push and some specific asset inflation  Finding the right investment expression that matches the analysis is an important interactive step 10 Additional information in ‘Appendix 1’ beginning on Slide #15
  • 11. 11  We believe that there are 3 potential outcomes from these key economic variables: 1. Nirvana: Policies work, balance sheets are repaired, growth returns and unemployment falls 2. Chaos: Monetary and Fiscal policy lose effectiveness, the Euro collapses, growth turns more significantly negative, unemployment soars and a liquidity trap grips the global economy 3. Disorganization: A long period of low growth, very slow deleveraging, higher unemployment supplemented with growing wealth transfers, political gridlock, ineffective fiscal policies, continued activist central banks, very low nominal rates  Our base case is that we will have a disorganized investment environment for the near to medium term.  A successful investment strategy will have a strong foundation of a thematic approach, excellent trade selection, quantitative portfolio construction and robust risk management.
  • 12. 12 Investment Analysis and Trade Implementation  Lower growth, high unemployment and slower deleveraging can be quite positive for many, but not all asset classes. ◦ Fixed Income will price lower rates for longer and continued Quantitative Easing from a variety of Central Banks. This will provide a range trading environment often at higher levels. ◦ Equity prices can move higher. Free cash flows will be discounted on lower rates. Higher earning will be possible from continued lower labor costs and higher productivity. Earnings multiples will most likely remain low, but will not likely move lower. Favor EM and DM economies that are able to generate superior relative growth. ◦ Foreign Exchange movements will track those economies that have more successful QE and growth. Favor the USD over other major currencies and generally EM currencies that are able to generate domestic consumption. ◦ Commodity prices will remain low or even fall as cost-push inflation will remain muted  Active central banks with disorganized fiscal policies should result in lower realized asset price volatility with periods of implied volatility spikes. This will provide significant opportunities view option strategies.  Risks to this view ◦ Watch for 1970 type price fixing and tariffs that will translate to higher inflation ◦ Political risks that heighten nationalism and result in damaging trade and investment policies. ◦ Fiscal and regulatory changes that give governments control over larger parts of the economy. ◦ Exogenous shock such as war, terror disease that increases unemployment or lowers confidence Additional information in ‘Appendix 2’ beginning on Slide #22
  • 13. 13 Quantitative Portfolio Construction  The portfolio is generally constructed with: ◦ 5 or more macro themes ◦ 10 to 20 positively skewed investments that exhibit low correlation ◦ An investment horizon from a few days to six months or more  Once an investment has been identified it must undergo further rigorous examination before it can be added to the portfolio.  Inputs to our Quantitative Portfolio Construction Framework include: ◦ Skew of the trade – Expected outcomes are weighed to increase the risk-to-reward ratio with a target objective of1:3. ◦ Volatility or VaR based allocation to ensure correct weighting in the portfolio. ◦ Historic and Expected Correlation of trade to portfolio to ensure that as investments are added that negative P&L risk is reduced ◦ Stop Losses and action triggers to provide effective management of the trade Additional information in ‘Appendix 3’ beginning on Slide #28
  • 14. 14 Risk Management  Measures ◦ VaR: Historical daily VaR at 95%, 2 year look back with tail analysis. ◦ Leverage: Notional derivatives leverage / NAV ◦ Correlations: between asset classes, portfolios strategies and markets ◦ Exposures: DV01, Notional, Greeks ◦ Stress Tests: Historic and generic ◦ Draw downs: Risk reduction process at 5% and 10% drawdown levels  Controls ◦ VaR: Run at an average of 1% daily VaR with a cap at 2% ◦ Greeks: Delta and Vega limits ◦ P&L: Peak to trough reduction of at least 1/3 risk at 4% and another 1/3 reduction at 8% ◦ Liquidity: Retain the ability to liquidate entire portfolio in three trading days ◦ Asset Class: Commodities or Equities will not comprise more than 20% of the portfolio by VaR weighting. No physical commodities.  Risk Process ◦ Risk Team: Risk managed by the desk and by independent risk manager ◦ Risk Calculations: using a combination of external and internal risk management tools ◦ Daily Reviews with Weekly Formal Reports ◦ Top down and bottom up – connect risk to trades
  • 15. Appendix 1 15 Macro Economic Analysis and Theme Identification •Demographics •Politics •Fiscal and Monetary policies •Inflation •Balance sheets •Credit •Employment •Productivity
  • 16. 16 1. The financial crisis remains and deleveraging will continue. Developed government balance sheets will deteriorate until consumers stop retrenching McKinsey Quarterly, June 2012 Expansion of ‘Macro Economic Analysis & Theme Identification’ Slide #10
  • 17. 17 2. The large output gap will remain for years and will have a lasting impact on unemployment, labor compensation and inflation. Expansion of ‘Macro Economic Analysis & Theme Identification’ Slide #10
  • 18. 18  The output gap is strongly influenced by the unemployment rate and the participation rate  The participation rate has been falling steadily.  The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts demographics will cut another 2% off of the participation rate by 2020.  We believe we will see lower unemployment, but continued output gap as jobs are not created.  We believe the Fed will watch this closely and will continue to use Quantitative Easing. Expansion of ‘Macro Economic Analysis & Theme Identification’ Slide #10
  • 19. 19 3. Central banks will increase their monetary policy activities to accommodate unemployment and attempt to ward off deflation. International Monetary Fund Expansion of ‘Macro Economic Analysis & Theme Identification’ Slide #10
  • 20. 20 4. However, the Fed will begin to remove the negative risk premium in the market. This will drive real rates higher and inflation lower. Expect short end rates to stay low. From Chairman Bernanke’s March 1, 2013 Annual Monetary Conference speech Expansion of ‘Macro Economic Analysis & Theme Identification’ Slide #10
  • 21. 21 5. An increased role of government in the economy will include higher taxes, more wealth transfers, currency management and chaotic fiscal & regulatory actions. Expansion of ‘Macro Economic Analysis & Theme Identification’ Slide #10
  • 22. 22 Appendix 2 Investment Analysis and Trade Implementation •Investment themes •Market pricing •Market trends •Asset valuation (carry, roll, volatility) •Skewed risk reward investment analysis
  • 23. 23 US Fixed Income Long-tenor Fixed Income markets in the US and Europe will begin to move lower as real rates increase and term premium is added back into market pricing. Expansion of ‘Investment Analysis & Trade Implementation’ Slide #12
  • 24. 24 USD Forward Rate Steepener While the Fed will be on hold for a very long time, pricing in the market is inconsistent with the Board’s language. A positive carrying forward steepener trade provides income for the portfolio and protection for long fixed income during periods when rates move higher. Expansion of ‘Investment Analysis & Trade Implementation’ Slide #12
  • 25. 25 Long US Equities Short AUDUSD The Australian market appears appropriately priced with the RBA on hold, inflation tame and unemployment okay. Global outperformance should come from US Equity outperformance. We quite like how the US equity market displays lower volatility relative to AUDUSD. Expansion of ‘Investment Analysis & Trade Implementation’ Slide #12
  • 26. 26 Long the Dollar The USD will a move to higher real rate and current valuation will steadily increase in value against a basked of currencies. Expansion of ‘Investment Analysis & Trade Implementation’ Slide #12
  • 27. 27 Negative Commodities Commodity pricing will continue to weaken from lower demand, higher dollar and more efficient demand use. There will be many investment opportunities using option structures for neutral or negative outcomes. Expansion of ‘Investment Analysis & Trade Implementation’ Slide #12
  • 29. 29  The portfolio function: Maximize Returns / Minimize Return Volatility  Maximizing Returns is derivate from appropriate application of ◦ Assets price risk (Delta), ◦ change in price risk (Gamma and Vega), ◦ valuation relative to other asset classes  Returns can be generated through other factors such as credit and liquidity risk, however, we generally seek to minimize these risks. Returns can also be generated through timing, but empirically this is a zero return activity.  Minimizing Portfolio Return Volatility is achieved through ◦ Diversification of positive skewed assets that have a low or negative expected correlation ◦ Reduce draw downs via specific trade actions as well as risk reductions at >2.5% daily, a 5% rolling and, again at 10% rolling. ◦ Reduce tail outcomes through stress and scenario analysis. This is assessed by analysis of VAR left tail distribution. Expansion of ‘Quantitative Portfolio Construction’ Slide #13
  • 30. 30  This provides the following framework:  Thus: ◦ Expected Returns T1-T0 = ((Delta * Expected Price Change) + (Vega & Gamma * Expected Volatility Change) + (Valuation Deviation * Change in Valuation)) * T1-T0 ◦ Expected Return Volatility T1-T0 = (Return Correlation * Change in Correlation) + (Expected Stop Losses) + (Expected Stress Losses) + (Expected Scenarios)  This framework allows us to assess what is the best expression of investment while managing the risks. This also provides for a consistent post period return analysis Expansion of ‘Quantitative Portfolio Construction’ Slide #13
  • 31. 31  As discussed earlier, given our Macro Themes, we believe that Fixed Income is set to rally further. However, our valuation framework identified that the forward curve was at an extreme level. Finally, our Gamma analysis showed that while implied volatility was generally low, at time of Fixed Income stress, Implied jumped significantly over historical.  Our return framework allowed us to create the following positive skewed returns Fixed Income portfolio ◦ Long US Fixed Income (Delta) through 10yr Note Futures with VaR at 33 - 66 bps ◦ Long US Eurodollar Futures Curve (Valuation) ◦ Short 1 month OTM Puts (Gamma) on Implied Volatility spikes > 1.5% to Historic  Our Volatility framework determined that: ◦ Expected Correlation was negative for the first two investments, very low for the third ◦ Stop losses were at 33bps ◦ Stress and Scenario loss analysis was at 1.5% and 2.0% Expansion of ‘Quantitative Portfolio Construction’ Slide #13
  • 32. 32 Our Fixed Income Portfolio Taken together, these trades produce positive skewed outcomes, reduce return volatility and allow up to increase the overall returns as lower correlation between trades allows us to increase the overall size of the portfolio. Expansion of ‘Quantitative Portfolio Construction’ Slide #13
  • 33. 33 Fixed Income, 50% FX, 30% Commodities, 10% Equities, 10% Eventual Asset Class Composition (as % of VaR)  Initial Investment Strategies in Exchange Traded Futures and Options: ◦ Fixed Income ◦ Foreign Exchange ◦ Equities  Subsequent Strategies to include: ◦ OTC Fixed Income ◦ OTC FX Options ◦ Exchange Traded Commodity Futures and Options Expansion of ‘Quantitative Portfolio Construction’ Slide #13
  • 34. 34 Fixed Income 50% of VAR Equities 20% of VAR Foreign Exchange 30% of VAR •Long Eurodollar forward steepener •Short OTM 10 year Note futures put spreads on dips •Long equity futures in covered call strategy •Short OTM VIX puts •Short OTM put spreads on dips •Short EURUSD •Short USDMXN •Short AUDUSD vs. S&P above Portfolio weighting driven by current and expect correlations and volatility pricing. Expansion of ‘Quantitative Portfolio Construction’ Slide #13
  • 35. Appendix 4 35 A theoretical exercise designed to take the aforementioned, actual Performance History, apply leverage and display returns with capital appreciation reinvested.
  • 36. 36 Jan Feb March April May June July August Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD 2005 0.03% 3.03% -0.17% -1.37% -0.77% -2.97% 6.43% -0.17% -0.57% -3.77% 3.03% 15.63% 18.40% 2006 -1.37% -0.57% -0.77% -0.97% 0.83% -0.37% -0.57% 6.43% 3.03% 0.63% 10.23% -12.17% 4.40% 2007 -3.57% 3.63% -1.37% 0.63% -7.17% 6.03% -1.97% 4.23% -2.97% -0.77% 0.03% 6.43% 3.20% 2008 -0.37% 6.43% 1.03% 2.63% -3.37% 0.43% -4.37% -0.97% -0.37% 3.83% 6.03% 14.43% 25.40% 2009 -4.17% -1.77% 4.23% -3.97% -2.37% -2.57% 2.63% 3.03% 2.83% -0.77% 9.83% -6.97% 0.00% 2010 10.23% 0.63% 10.87% Geometric Return2 73.3% Best Month 15.6% Average Annual Return 10.4% Worst Month -12.1% Volatility 4.8% Largest Drawdown (Dec ‘06 – May ‘07) -20.0% Ex-post Information Ratio 2.15 Months to Recovery 11 2Portfolio is presented pro forma, net of a 2% per annum Management Fee, and assumes reinvestment of income, and is therefore hypothetical in that respect. Hypothetical results have inherent limitations. No representation is being made that the Fund will or is likely to achieve returns similar to those shown. Transactions involve substantial risk of loss.
  • 38. 38 Key Terms: Domicile: Cayman Islands Investment Manager: Minimum Investment: Management Fee: 2.0% (Discounts for Founder / Early Entry Share Classes) Performance Fee: 20.0% Subscription: Monthly Redemption: Monthly (with 20 Business Days Notice) Lock: 3.0% in the first year, declining 1.0% annually Side Pocket: None Service Providers: Prime Broker: Citibank / Barclays / Credit Suisse / To Be Determined Administrator: US Bancorp Fund Services / AIS Fund Administration Ltd. Auditor: To Be Determined Legal Advisors: To Be Determined Fund Analytics: ENSO Financial Management / To Be Determined ISDA Negotiation: Avalon Lake Partners / To Be Determined Compliance: Avalon Lake Partners / To Be Determined
  • 39. 39 Eric Leininger: Cellular Phone: (973) 615-4819 E-mail: eric.leininger@zaratancapital.com Peter Ristine: Cellular Phone: (917) 941-3368 E-mail: peter.ristine@zaratancapital.com Investor Relations: E-mail: investor.relations@zaratancapital.com
  • 40. 40 The Fund is speculative and performance may be volatile. Positions in the Fund may be highly leveraged. A small change in the market price of a position can produce major losses for the Fund. An investor could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment. Regardless of trading performance, the Fund will incur fees and expenses, including brokerage and management fees. An investment in the Fund provides limited liquidity since withdrawal/redemption rights are limited and not freely transferable. There is no secondary market for the interests in the Fund and none are expected to develop. A portion of the trades executed for the Fund may take place on foreign exchanges. No representation is made that the Fund will or is likely to achieve its investment objective, or that any investor will or is likely to achieve results comparable to those shown, or will make a profit, or will be able to avoid incurring substantial losses. Past performance is guarantee of future results. Return targets or objectives and/or index and benchmark performance are presented for illustration purposes only. Targeted returns are not intended to be actual performance and cannot be relied upon as an indication of actual or future performance. The Fund’s investments are selected by, and will vary in the sole discretion of, the Fund Manager. Investments are subject to availability and market conditions, among other things. The Fund Manager has broad discretion to increase or decrease exposures in the Fund in its sole discretion. Thus, while exposures and leverage rates that may be presented in this document might be accurate as of the date of the presentation, such ranges may vary widely from time to time. The description herein of the Funds’ investments, investment process, or investment strategies and styles may not be fully indicative of any present of future investments, and may be changed in the sole discretion of the Fund Manager. The Fund may invest in foreign securities and may employ a variety of investment techniques such as options trading, the use of leverage, and short selling strategies; each of which involves special investment and risk considerations. Investments in the Fund are intended for sophisticated investors only, as defined by law. Certain investors in the Fund may be subject to preferential terms. The above summary is not a complete list of the risks and other important disclosures involved in investing in the Fund and are subject to more complete disclosures contained in the Funds’ respective offering documents, articles, and partnership agreements which must be reviewed carefully.
  • 41. This document has been prepared by Zaratan Capital Management, LLC (the “Fund Manager”) and is for private circulation. The information contained in this document is strictly confidential and intended for informational purposes only. This document is intended for distribution only to the recipient. Distribution of this document to any person other than the person to whom this information was originally delivered and/or such person’s advisors is unauthorized and strictly prohibited. Any reproduction of these materials, in whole or in part, or the disclosure of any of the contents without prior written consent of the Fund Manager in each such instance is prohibited. Securities shall not be offered or sold in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful until the requirements of the law of such jurisdiction have been satisfied. These materials are not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use is contrary to local law or regulation. This document shall not constitute an offer to but or the solicitation of any offer to sell any security and should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities. If you express an interesting in investing in the Fund, you will be provided with a confidential offering memorandum, subscription agreement, and any additional related memorandum (the “Fund Documents”). You must review, and rely on, the information and the risk factors disclosed in the Fund Documents in making your decision to invest. The information contained herein is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. Please consult your tax, legal, accounting, or other advisors about the matters discussed herein. All information contained herein has been prepared by the Fund Manager, unless otherwise noted. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is given to the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained in this document. The document is provided for informational purposes only as of the date hereof, may not contain material information about the Fund, and is subject to change without notice. 41Prepared for Samson Wang on 10/23/2013