Kenya's economic growth has been uneven and imbalanced, driven predominantly by domestic consumption fueled by imports rather than exports. The infrastructure deficit constrains exports, and the port of Mombasa is underperforming despite some improvements, taking 20 days to transport a container from Mombasa to Nairobi versus shipping the same container from Singapore to Mombasa. Key reforms are needed such as improving port management, upgrading transport connections, and expanding port capacity to address hindrances posed by Mombasa and strengthen Kenya's economy.

1. Running on one Engine
Kenya’s uneven economic performance
with a special focus on the port of Mombasa
Press Briefing
World Bank Economic Team Norfolk Hotel
Presentation by Dr. Wolfgang Fengler Nairobi, June 3, 2010

2. Main messages
• Kenya is recovering - slowly but surely. For 2010, the World Bank is
revising its growth forecast upwards to 4.0 percent. For 2011, we project
4.9 percent, if no shocks occur.
• However, Kenya is running on one engine. Over the last decade
growth has been imbalanced, predominantly driven by domestic
consumption fuelled by imports. Exports have been weak and non-tradable
sectors, such as services and construction have performed strongly.
• The Infrastructure deficit constrains exports and the port of
Mombasa is still under-performing. Despite some improvements, port
reforms have not kept up with the momentum in other African countries. It
still takes 20 days to bring a container from Mombasa to Nairobi. This is
longer than to ship the same container from Singapore to Mombasa.

3. Recent Economic Developments
and Outlook for 2010

4. Kenya’s economy is recovering – slowly
but surely…

5. …but lags behind growth in East Africa

6. Services have been the drivers of growth
in 2009, agriculture contracted again

7. … and Kenya’s ICT revolution continues:
20 mn phone connections; 4 mn internet connections

8. Macroeconomic management has been strong:
Inflation and interest rates declined sharply since 2008

9. Fiscal deficits have been low
For FY 2009/2010, the deficit only reached 4.9% by April 2010…

10. … and the fiscal stimulus will not be fully
implemented: 57% disbursement after nine months

11. Kenya Running on one Engine

12. Kenya’s share in world trade has been
declining sharply since 1970

13. The pattern of consumption-led growth and weak
exports has been building up for a decade

14. Consumption has led Kenya out of the crisis
in 2009 - net exports remain negative

15. The current account deficit remains large
and is financed by a strong capital account…

16. ...which is driven by short term flows

17. Over the last decade, non-tradable sectors
have performed best
Ave.
Percent

18. Manufacturing has been overtaken by transport
& communication and wholesale & retail trade

19. The Port of Mombasa

20. Singapore ships 50 times more goods
than Mombasa

21. 94 percent of Mombasa goods go to
Kenya and Uganda

22. At the port, dwell time has been reduced,
however, ...
20,000 11.33 12
10.67
18,000
10
16,000
9.13
volum e of goods ('000'D WT )
14,000
8
12,000
10,000 6
5.93
8,000
4
6,000
4,000
2
2,000
0 0
4th Qtr 2007 2nd Qtr '08 4th Qtr '08 2nd Qtr '09
CFS DW TIME

23. .. it still takes 20 days to bring a container
from Mombasa to Nairobi
3.7 days
18.3 days

24. … and Kenya is lagging behind in the
implementation of reforms

25. Key reform issues
• Easy wins – Improve management. The Mombasa port can be
substantially upgraded, even with the current infrastructure, including
through (i) full and effective 24hr port operations; (ii) the implementation of a state
of the art IT system (Port Community-Based System); (iii) the concessioning of
berths 11-14 through a competitive and transparent process; (iv) the
establishment of a landlord port.
• Infrastructure upgrading – Focus on transport connections. Transfer of
goods through Mombasa and other parts of Kenya has become a major
hindrance to the economy. Key improvements include the (i) Mombasa by-pass
along with the link road from the port; (ii) upgrading of rail capacity; (iii) building of
new container terminal by 2015

26. Thank You
http://www.worldbank.org/ke
For more information on this report and the World Bank’s Economic program in Kenya, please contact Wolfgang
Fengler (wfengler@worldbank.org), Jane Kiringai (jkiringai@worldbank.org) or Andrew Roberts
(aroberts@worldbank.org)