Beyond fraud in the electoral process, I invite the public to examine the greater flaws in the electoral system. Presented in a forum organised by Merdeka Centre.

1. Will history not replay at GE14?
Dr Wong Chin Huat
Penang Institute
13th General Election of Malaysia: Post Election Forum "The
Implication of the GE13 result and post-election scenario“
By Merdeka Centre
May 22, 2013

2. Imagine...
Vote %
Quota
(1/223)
No of
Quotas
Full
Quota
Fractional
quota Total
BN 47.38% 0.45% 105.66 105 1 106
PKR 20.39% 0.45% 45.47 45 1 46
DAP 15.71% 0.45% 35.03 35 0 35
PAS 14.77% 0.45% 32.94 32 1 33
STAR 0.41% 0.45% 0.91 0 1 1
SWP 0.14% 0.45% 0.31 0 1 1
SAPP 0.09% 0.45% 0.20 0 0 0
Total 98.89% 217 5 222
Even if WM and EM are made two constituencies, with the same
formula, PR will still win 110, while BN 109, STAR 2, SWP 1

3. One person one vote?
47.38%
20.39%
15.71%
14.77%
59.91%
13.51%
17.12%
9.46%
126.00%
66.00%
109.00%
64.00%
BN PKR DAP PAS
Vote-Seat Disproportionality in
the Parliamentary Elections 2013
Vote % Seat % Relative Value

4. It’s a gamble!
39.36%
21.17%
17.67%
20.80%
21.43%
26.00%
26.79%
26.79%
54.00%
118.00%
152.00%
129.00%
BN PKR DAP PAS
Vote-Seat Disproportionality in
the Selangor Legislative Elections 2013
Vote % Seat % Relative Value

5. It’s a casino!
Graphic by Cheng Eng Aun

6. Nothing New!
Vote-seat Disproportionality in Malaysia, 1955-2008
Electio
ns
Largest
Opposition
Party
Votes to
match 1
Alliance/
BN vote
Second
Largest
Oppositio
n Party
Votes to
match 1
Alliance/
BN vote
Third
Largest
Oppositio
n Party
Votes to
match 1
Alliance/
BN vote
1955 PN Infinity PAS* 2.54 NAP* Infinity
1959 PAS* 2.34 SF 2.31 PPP* 2.25
1964 SF 12.25 PAS* 2.47 UDP 6.65
1969 PAS* 3.39 DAP 1.79 Gerakan* 1.81
1974 DAP 4.52 SNAP* 1.37 Pekemas 11.39
1978 DAP 2.72 PAS* 7.03 Pekemas Infinity
1982 DAP 4.75 PAS* 6.30 PSRM Infinity
1986 DAP 2.27 PAS* 40.41 PSRM Infinity
1990 DAP 2.10 S46* 4.48 PAS* 2.28
1995 DAP 3.33 S46* 4.22 PAS* 2.59
1999 PAS* 1.45 DAP 3.28 PKN 6.11
2004 PAS* 8.15 DAP 2.58 PKR 26.08
2008 PKR 1.67 PAS 1.70 DAP 1.37

7. The Culprits
Three sources of disproportionality
• The Nature of Electoral System - FPTP
• Malapportionment
– Inter-state (Article 46, Federal Constitution)
– Intra-state
• rural weightage
• Limit of disparity: +-15%, +-50%, none
• Gerrymandering
+ Trade-off between Equal Apportionment and Natural Boundary

8. Different leagues
Graphic by Cheng Eng Aun

9. Malapportionment at 2013, WM

10. Malapportionment at 2013, EM

11. Nothing rural!
93,376
74,698
69,189
57,313
2013 2004
Malapportionment within state
Baling Alor Star

12. Nothing Malay!
72,845
39,688
34,290
20,006
2013 2004
Malapportionment within parliamentary constituency
Sri Serdang (2004: 57% Malays) Kinrara (2004: 61% Chinese)

13. Gerrymandering –
Turning Politics into Geography

14. Gerrymandering Type 1:
Crossing Municipal/District Boundaries

15. Gerrymandering Type 2:
Arbitrary Combination of Communities
N45
N45
N45
N45
N45
N45
N46
N46

16. Gerrymandering Type 3:
Partitioning Neighbourhoods
From left to right: the communities of Puchong Intan, Pusat Bandar Puchong and Bandar
Kinrara are segmented into N.30 Kinrara (east) and N.29 Seri Serdang (west).
PUCHONG INTAN

17. FPTP is fraud-prone
• Under FPTP, for a seat with a real margin of 1,000
votes, to turn the outcome around may need only
– Deploying 1,001 phantoms
– Spoiling 1,001 votes cast for the winner
– Buying 501 votes
• Under Proportional Representation (entire nation
as one constituency) with the formula of 1/(M+1)
or 1/223, with 11,054,577 valid votes, the quota
for a seat is 49,572! (see Slide 1)

18. The Agenda for Electoral Reform
• If nothing changes in the rules of the game, GE14 may
be even more frustrating than GE13.
• Constituency Redelienation – citizens’ participation can
prevent malapportionment and gerrymandering from
getting worse.
• In the long term, we still need electoral system change:
– Majoritarian: Alternative Vote (Australia)
– Proportional: Mixed Member Proportional (Germany)
• No political change can be done without the Borneoan
approval. Hence, decentralisation and electoral reform
must be offered in a package.