SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1
Will Chinese Flu Hit India?
By
ZUBIN POONAWALLA
With the global economy in FY16 off to one of its worst starts in decades,
does it mean we are headed for another global recession like in FY08 or is it
time for a bounce-back?
Highlights:
TREND 1: GLOBAL RECESSION EVERY 8 YEARS
-Global economy weak & weakening further
-FY15 the worst year for global economy since FY08 crisis
-Recessions follow expansions historically
-Current economic expansion an aging cycle
-Need to look out for what's going to trip the economy
-Need to intensely follow China
TREND 2: CHINA THE WEAKEST LINK
-Chinese economy has become too large
-Record debt facilitated China growth in the past
-China debt has become a source of vulnerability
-Chinese economy was on a debt binge
-China is now 10% of global economic output
-Too much debt over short time always a warning bell
2
-40% increase in debt in 5 years a danger mark
-Have seen a sharp fall in China's debt profile
-China is paying the price of the debt binge
TREND 3: WILL CHINESE FLU HIT INDIA?
-Global trade growth collapsed to 0% in FY15
-Historically 0% global trade growth during recessions
-India's exports have collapsed to negative 5%
-India can't grow at 8%-9% when exports at negative 5%
-India has become most protectionist country
-India's increased protectionism troubling
-India took 2nd highest protectionist measures in FY15
-Corporate India reeling
-India Inc saw 0% sales growth in FY15
-Profit growth likely to be negative for India Inc
-Dichotomy between GDP data & corporate performance
-India's data credibility under question
TREND 4: COMMODITY PRICES PLUNGING TO NORMAL
-Current commodity prices near 200-year average
-Commodity cycles: boom for a decade, bust for 2 decades
3
-Oil prices not away from 100-year average
-Oil prices will continue to fluctuate
-$70-80/barrel a peak for oil prices for next 10 years
-Biggest risk to US in FY16: energy companies' bankruptcy
-Oil prices at $50-60/barrel a sweet spot for India
-More fall in oil prices will be bad news for the world
-Oil prices at $50-60/barrel a sweet spot for India
TREND 5: GLOBAL DIS-INFLATION COMES TO INDIA
-India's inflation problem far from being solved
-Inflation in India has fallen mostly on back of commodity prices
TREND 6: HARD FOR US FEDERAL RESERVE TO RAISE RATES MUCH
-US has never been bigger as a financial superpower
-50%-60% of world's currencies tied to the $
-US Federal Reserve has to be conscious of the global economy
-Hard to imagine Fed raising rates by much
-US economy showing signs of slowing down
TREND 7: RUPEE CHEAP, OTHERS CHEAPER
-Emerging currencies have seen a carnage
-Great time for outbound travel for Indians
4
-Emerging currencies have adjusted significantly
TREND 8: FANG IN - BRIC OUT
-'Fang' the fashionable trend of this decade
-Companies getting funding despite being unlisted
-Explosion of unicorns across the world
-Companies more willing to remain private now
-Listing on markets no longer the attraction now
-Moving towards a phase of execution for unicorns
-Funding will become harder for unicorns
TREND 9: INDIA'S PUBLIC SECTOR PROBLEM
-Credit growth has fallen dramatically
-India needs to fix its banking system
-Seen privatisation by benign neglect
-Public banks have a share of 70% of assets compared to the average of
30% for emerging world
-Public banks have very high non-performing loans
-Public banks' bad loans constraining credit growth
TREND 10: POLITICAL TURMOIL RISING GLOBALLY
-Global anti-incumbency wave is rising
5
-Global anti-incumbency a fall-out of weak economic scenario
-Highest violent conflicts in FY15 post-cold war
-Seeing escalating geo-political risks

More Related Content

What's hot

Economics east asia crises
Economics  east asia crisesEconomics  east asia crises
Economics east asia crises
navyamukhi1
 
Yuan Impact On India & World
Yuan Impact On India & WorldYuan Impact On India & World
Yuan Impact On India & World
Bhanu Teja
 
Asian Financial Crisis
Asian Financial CrisisAsian Financial Crisis
Asian Financial Crisis
Eliel Daang
 
Rupeee vs dollar
Rupeee vs dollarRupeee vs dollar
Rupeee vs dollar
purushottam n vaidya vaidya
 
Asian financial crisis 1997
Asian financial crisis   1997Asian financial crisis   1997
Asian financial crisis 1997
Sandeep Bhattad
 
Capital Flows into Emerging Markets to Remain Volatile in 2015
Capital Flows into Emerging Markets to Remain Volatile in 2015 Capital Flows into Emerging Markets to Remain Volatile in 2015
Capital Flows into Emerging Markets to Remain Volatile in 2015
QNB Group
 
Indian rupees vs us dollar
Indian rupees vs us dollarIndian rupees vs us dollar
Indian rupees vs us dollar
munmunmishra
 
Financial crisis Of 1997 - South Korea
Financial crisis Of 1997 - South KoreaFinancial crisis Of 1997 - South Korea
Financial crisis Of 1997 - South Korea
Abishek Munshi
 
Bubble Spotting - The East Asia Currency and Debt crisis of 1997
Bubble Spotting - The East Asia Currency and Debt crisis of 1997Bubble Spotting - The East Asia Currency and Debt crisis of 1997
Bubble Spotting - The East Asia Currency and Debt crisis of 1997
Benjamin Van As
 
Metamorphosis of Indonesian Crisis Since 1978
Metamorphosis of Indonesian Crisis Since 1978Metamorphosis of Indonesian Crisis Since 1978
Metamorphosis of Indonesian Crisis Since 1978
Rian
 
impact of recession in india
impact of recession in indiaimpact of recession in india
impact of recession in india
chirag16
 
Korean Financial Crisis
Korean Financial CrisisKorean Financial Crisis
Korean Financial Crisis
Amar Ranu
 
China's yuan devaluation may hit indian exports
China's yuan devaluation may hit indian exportsChina's yuan devaluation may hit indian exports
China's yuan devaluation may hit indian exports
Saxbee Consultants
 
Synergy FX Forex News | 1st August 2015
Synergy FX Forex News | 1st August 2015Synergy FX Forex News | 1st August 2015
Synergy FX Forex News | 1st August 2015
Synergy FX
 
Global Financial Crisis And Its Impact On The Indian Economy
Global Financial Crisis And Its Impact On The Indian EconomyGlobal Financial Crisis And Its Impact On The Indian Economy
Global Financial Crisis And Its Impact On The Indian Economy
Shradha Diwan
 
Asian crisis 1997
Asian crisis 1997Asian crisis 1997
Asian crisis 1997
Kapil Rajput
 
Rupee vs dollar
Rupee vs dollarRupee vs dollar
Rupee vs dollar
Suresh Devtulya
 
Falling Rupee
Falling RupeeFalling Rupee
Falling Rupee
Ummar Farooq
 
Asian financial crisis
Asian financial crisisAsian financial crisis
Asian financial crisis
Pawan Kawan
 
Be ppt
Be pptBe ppt
Be ppt
domsr
 

What's hot (20)

Economics east asia crises
Economics  east asia crisesEconomics  east asia crises
Economics east asia crises
 
Yuan Impact On India & World
Yuan Impact On India & WorldYuan Impact On India & World
Yuan Impact On India & World
 
Asian Financial Crisis
Asian Financial CrisisAsian Financial Crisis
Asian Financial Crisis
 
Rupeee vs dollar
Rupeee vs dollarRupeee vs dollar
Rupeee vs dollar
 
Asian financial crisis 1997
Asian financial crisis   1997Asian financial crisis   1997
Asian financial crisis 1997
 
Capital Flows into Emerging Markets to Remain Volatile in 2015
Capital Flows into Emerging Markets to Remain Volatile in 2015 Capital Flows into Emerging Markets to Remain Volatile in 2015
Capital Flows into Emerging Markets to Remain Volatile in 2015
 
Indian rupees vs us dollar
Indian rupees vs us dollarIndian rupees vs us dollar
Indian rupees vs us dollar
 
Financial crisis Of 1997 - South Korea
Financial crisis Of 1997 - South KoreaFinancial crisis Of 1997 - South Korea
Financial crisis Of 1997 - South Korea
 
Bubble Spotting - The East Asia Currency and Debt crisis of 1997
Bubble Spotting - The East Asia Currency and Debt crisis of 1997Bubble Spotting - The East Asia Currency and Debt crisis of 1997
Bubble Spotting - The East Asia Currency and Debt crisis of 1997
 
Metamorphosis of Indonesian Crisis Since 1978
Metamorphosis of Indonesian Crisis Since 1978Metamorphosis of Indonesian Crisis Since 1978
Metamorphosis of Indonesian Crisis Since 1978
 
impact of recession in india
impact of recession in indiaimpact of recession in india
impact of recession in india
 
Korean Financial Crisis
Korean Financial CrisisKorean Financial Crisis
Korean Financial Crisis
 
China's yuan devaluation may hit indian exports
China's yuan devaluation may hit indian exportsChina's yuan devaluation may hit indian exports
China's yuan devaluation may hit indian exports
 
Synergy FX Forex News | 1st August 2015
Synergy FX Forex News | 1st August 2015Synergy FX Forex News | 1st August 2015
Synergy FX Forex News | 1st August 2015
 
Global Financial Crisis And Its Impact On The Indian Economy
Global Financial Crisis And Its Impact On The Indian EconomyGlobal Financial Crisis And Its Impact On The Indian Economy
Global Financial Crisis And Its Impact On The Indian Economy
 
Asian crisis 1997
Asian crisis 1997Asian crisis 1997
Asian crisis 1997
 
Rupee vs dollar
Rupee vs dollarRupee vs dollar
Rupee vs dollar
 
Falling Rupee
Falling RupeeFalling Rupee
Falling Rupee
 
Asian financial crisis
Asian financial crisisAsian financial crisis
Asian financial crisis
 
Be ppt
Be pptBe ppt
Be ppt
 

Similar to Will Chinese flu hit India

2012 Outlook
2012 Outlook2012 Outlook
2012 Outlook
Marshall Gittler
 
Atradius_Economic_Outlook_November_2015_english
Atradius_Economic_Outlook_November_2015_englishAtradius_Economic_Outlook_November_2015_english
Atradius_Economic_Outlook_November_2015_english
Jaime Cubillo Fleming
 
The Return of Depression Economics
The Return of Depression EconomicsThe Return of Depression Economics
The Return of Depression Economics
Valbury Group Asia Division
 
Informe - La economía global entra en aguas turbulentas
Informe - La economía global entra en aguas turbulentasInforme - La economía global entra en aguas turbulentas
Informe - La economía global entra en aguas turbulentas
Ignacio Jimenez
 
CIO Newsletter
CIO NewsletterCIO Newsletter
CIO Newsletter
Tata Mutual Fund
 
CIO Newsletter - Jan 2016
CIO Newsletter - Jan 2016CIO Newsletter - Jan 2016
CIO Newsletter - Jan 2016
Prof. Simply Simple
 
pl_global-powers-cons-products-2015
pl_global-powers-cons-products-2015pl_global-powers-cons-products-2015
pl_global-powers-cons-products-2015
Blossom Out
 
Le 250 più grandi aziende al mondo nel 2015
Le 250 più grandi aziende al mondo nel 2015Le 250 più grandi aziende al mondo nel 2015
Le 250 più grandi aziende al mondo nel 2015
Quotidiano Piemontese
 
Bric
BricBric
What Happened to the BRICS?
What Happened to the BRICS?What Happened to the BRICS?
What Happened to the BRICS?
InvestingTips
 
China's Turbulent Economy, Summer of 2015
China's Turbulent Economy, Summer of 2015China's Turbulent Economy, Summer of 2015
China's Turbulent Economy, Summer of 2015
MyValueTrade
 
Finlight Research - Market Perspectives - Jan 2016
Finlight Research - Market Perspectives - Jan 2016Finlight Research - Market Perspectives - Jan 2016
Finlight Research - Market Perspectives - Jan 2016
FinLight Research
 
CIO Newsletter - Third Edtion
CIO Newsletter - Third EdtionCIO Newsletter - Third Edtion
CIO Newsletter - Third Edtion
Prof. Simply Simple
 
Global economy in reverse gear
Global economy in reverse gearGlobal economy in reverse gear
Global economy in reverse gear
Sandesh Pawar
 
Rural finance in an indian economy
Rural finance in an indian economyRural finance in an indian economy
Rural finance in an indian economy
Faraz Vehvaria
 
Why Indian rupee is falling - August 2013
Why Indian rupee is falling - August 2013Why Indian rupee is falling - August 2013
Why Indian rupee is falling - August 2013
ranjitg
 
EVOLUTION OF INDIA’S ANNUAL INFLATION RATE FROM 1991-92 TO 2015-16
EVOLUTION OF INDIA’S ANNUAL INFLATION RATE FROM 1991-92 TO 2015-16EVOLUTION OF INDIA’S ANNUAL INFLATION RATE FROM 1991-92 TO 2015-16
EVOLUTION OF INDIA’S ANNUAL INFLATION RATE FROM 1991-92 TO 2015-16
Joydeep Bhowmik
 
Foreign Currency Report 1
Foreign Currency Report 1Foreign Currency Report 1
Foreign Currency Report 1
Mike Korycki
 
Global recession towards world economic depression
Global recession towards world economic depressionGlobal recession towards world economic depression
Global recession towards world economic depression
Fernando Alcoforado
 
Erosion in indian currency
Erosion in indian currencyErosion in indian currency
Erosion in indian currency
Ashish Bhardwaj
 

Similar to Will Chinese flu hit India (20)

2012 Outlook
2012 Outlook2012 Outlook
2012 Outlook
 
Atradius_Economic_Outlook_November_2015_english
Atradius_Economic_Outlook_November_2015_englishAtradius_Economic_Outlook_November_2015_english
Atradius_Economic_Outlook_November_2015_english
 
The Return of Depression Economics
The Return of Depression EconomicsThe Return of Depression Economics
The Return of Depression Economics
 
Informe - La economía global entra en aguas turbulentas
Informe - La economía global entra en aguas turbulentasInforme - La economía global entra en aguas turbulentas
Informe - La economía global entra en aguas turbulentas
 
CIO Newsletter
CIO NewsletterCIO Newsletter
CIO Newsletter
 
CIO Newsletter - Jan 2016
CIO Newsletter - Jan 2016CIO Newsletter - Jan 2016
CIO Newsletter - Jan 2016
 
pl_global-powers-cons-products-2015
pl_global-powers-cons-products-2015pl_global-powers-cons-products-2015
pl_global-powers-cons-products-2015
 
Le 250 più grandi aziende al mondo nel 2015
Le 250 più grandi aziende al mondo nel 2015Le 250 più grandi aziende al mondo nel 2015
Le 250 più grandi aziende al mondo nel 2015
 
Bric
BricBric
Bric
 
What Happened to the BRICS?
What Happened to the BRICS?What Happened to the BRICS?
What Happened to the BRICS?
 
China's Turbulent Economy, Summer of 2015
China's Turbulent Economy, Summer of 2015China's Turbulent Economy, Summer of 2015
China's Turbulent Economy, Summer of 2015
 
Finlight Research - Market Perspectives - Jan 2016
Finlight Research - Market Perspectives - Jan 2016Finlight Research - Market Perspectives - Jan 2016
Finlight Research - Market Perspectives - Jan 2016
 
CIO Newsletter - Third Edtion
CIO Newsletter - Third EdtionCIO Newsletter - Third Edtion
CIO Newsletter - Third Edtion
 
Global economy in reverse gear
Global economy in reverse gearGlobal economy in reverse gear
Global economy in reverse gear
 
Rural finance in an indian economy
Rural finance in an indian economyRural finance in an indian economy
Rural finance in an indian economy
 
Why Indian rupee is falling - August 2013
Why Indian rupee is falling - August 2013Why Indian rupee is falling - August 2013
Why Indian rupee is falling - August 2013
 
EVOLUTION OF INDIA’S ANNUAL INFLATION RATE FROM 1991-92 TO 2015-16
EVOLUTION OF INDIA’S ANNUAL INFLATION RATE FROM 1991-92 TO 2015-16EVOLUTION OF INDIA’S ANNUAL INFLATION RATE FROM 1991-92 TO 2015-16
EVOLUTION OF INDIA’S ANNUAL INFLATION RATE FROM 1991-92 TO 2015-16
 
Foreign Currency Report 1
Foreign Currency Report 1Foreign Currency Report 1
Foreign Currency Report 1
 
Global recession towards world economic depression
Global recession towards world economic depressionGlobal recession towards world economic depression
Global recession towards world economic depression
 
Erosion in indian currency
Erosion in indian currencyErosion in indian currency
Erosion in indian currency
 

More from Zubin Poonawalla

Warehousing industrial & logistics (wil) - emerging industry leader
Warehousing   industrial  & logistics (wil) - emerging industry leaderWarehousing   industrial  & logistics (wil) - emerging industry leader
Warehousing industrial & logistics (wil) - emerging industry leader
Zubin Poonawalla
 
Biz Plan - Cold Chain
Biz Plan -  Cold ChainBiz Plan -  Cold Chain
Biz Plan - Cold Chain
Zubin Poonawalla
 
Are you GST ready
Are you GST readyAre you GST ready
Are you GST ready
Zubin Poonawalla
 
'Patanjali' and the maverick baba 'consumer' ramdev
'Patanjali' and the maverick baba 'consumer' ramdev'Patanjali' and the maverick baba 'consumer' ramdev
'Patanjali' and the maverick baba 'consumer' ramdev
Zubin Poonawalla
 
Logistics – a key lever in e commerce marketplace
Logistics – a key lever in e commerce marketplaceLogistics – a key lever in e commerce marketplace
Logistics – a key lever in e commerce marketplace
Zubin Poonawalla
 
What are the parameters to evaluate last mile delivery partners for e
What are the parameters to evaluate last mile delivery partners for eWhat are the parameters to evaluate last mile delivery partners for e
What are the parameters to evaluate last mile delivery partners for e
Zubin Poonawalla
 
Trends in cold chain logistics
Trends in cold chain logisticsTrends in cold chain logistics
Trends in cold chain logistics
Zubin Poonawalla
 
How hands off should an e-commerce platform be?
How hands off should an e-commerce platform be?How hands off should an e-commerce platform be?
How hands off should an e-commerce platform be?
Zubin Poonawalla
 
Consumer Service Excellence
Consumer Service ExcellenceConsumer Service Excellence
Consumer Service Excellence
Zubin Poonawalla
 
Reasons why EBITDA can be a fallacy
Reasons why EBITDA can be a fallacyReasons why EBITDA can be a fallacy
Reasons why EBITDA can be a fallacy
Zubin Poonawalla
 
Re-inventing and Re-modelling Logistics and SCM
Re-inventing and Re-modelling Logistics and SCMRe-inventing and Re-modelling Logistics and SCM
Re-inventing and Re-modelling Logistics and SCM
Zubin Poonawalla
 
Supply chain & Marketing – some random thoughts
Supply chain & Marketing – some random thoughts  Supply chain & Marketing – some random thoughts
Supply chain & Marketing – some random thoughts
Zubin Poonawalla
 
E commerce logistics - basics
E commerce logistics - basicsE commerce logistics - basics
E commerce logistics - basics
Zubin Poonawalla
 
What is LMD? Adapting to Retail & e-Com Order Fulfilment Challenges
What is LMD? Adapting to Retail & e-Com Order Fulfilment ChallengesWhat is LMD? Adapting to Retail & e-Com Order Fulfilment Challenges
What is LMD? Adapting to Retail & e-Com Order Fulfilment Challenges
Zubin Poonawalla
 
How Last Mile Delivery affects the Supply Chain, E-tailing & Order fulfilment
How Last Mile Delivery affects the Supply Chain, E-tailing & Order fulfilment How Last Mile Delivery affects the Supply Chain, E-tailing & Order fulfilment
How Last Mile Delivery affects the Supply Chain, E-tailing & Order fulfilment
Zubin Poonawalla
 
Transition in Asia – How to grasp opportunities & meet new challenges in a tr...
Transition in Asia – How to grasp opportunities & meet new challenges in a tr...Transition in Asia – How to grasp opportunities & meet new challenges in a tr...
Transition in Asia – How to grasp opportunities & meet new challenges in a tr...
Zubin Poonawalla
 
E commerce – how it is changing supply chains
E commerce – how it is changing supply chains  E commerce – how it is changing supply chains
E commerce – how it is changing supply chains
Zubin Poonawalla
 
Optimising strategies for SCM
Optimising strategies for SCMOptimising strategies for SCM
Optimising strategies for SCM
Zubin Poonawalla
 
Highlights of union budget FY16-17
Highlights of union budget FY16-17Highlights of union budget FY16-17
Highlights of union budget FY16-17
Zubin Poonawalla
 
A to Z of FY16-17 Budget
A to Z of  FY16-17 BudgetA to Z of  FY16-17 Budget
A to Z of FY16-17 Budget
Zubin Poonawalla
 

More from Zubin Poonawalla (20)

Warehousing industrial & logistics (wil) - emerging industry leader
Warehousing   industrial  & logistics (wil) - emerging industry leaderWarehousing   industrial  & logistics (wil) - emerging industry leader
Warehousing industrial & logistics (wil) - emerging industry leader
 
Biz Plan - Cold Chain
Biz Plan -  Cold ChainBiz Plan -  Cold Chain
Biz Plan - Cold Chain
 
Are you GST ready
Are you GST readyAre you GST ready
Are you GST ready
 
'Patanjali' and the maverick baba 'consumer' ramdev
'Patanjali' and the maverick baba 'consumer' ramdev'Patanjali' and the maverick baba 'consumer' ramdev
'Patanjali' and the maverick baba 'consumer' ramdev
 
Logistics – a key lever in e commerce marketplace
Logistics – a key lever in e commerce marketplaceLogistics – a key lever in e commerce marketplace
Logistics – a key lever in e commerce marketplace
 
What are the parameters to evaluate last mile delivery partners for e
What are the parameters to evaluate last mile delivery partners for eWhat are the parameters to evaluate last mile delivery partners for e
What are the parameters to evaluate last mile delivery partners for e
 
Trends in cold chain logistics
Trends in cold chain logisticsTrends in cold chain logistics
Trends in cold chain logistics
 
How hands off should an e-commerce platform be?
How hands off should an e-commerce platform be?How hands off should an e-commerce platform be?
How hands off should an e-commerce platform be?
 
Consumer Service Excellence
Consumer Service ExcellenceConsumer Service Excellence
Consumer Service Excellence
 
Reasons why EBITDA can be a fallacy
Reasons why EBITDA can be a fallacyReasons why EBITDA can be a fallacy
Reasons why EBITDA can be a fallacy
 
Re-inventing and Re-modelling Logistics and SCM
Re-inventing and Re-modelling Logistics and SCMRe-inventing and Re-modelling Logistics and SCM
Re-inventing and Re-modelling Logistics and SCM
 
Supply chain & Marketing – some random thoughts
Supply chain & Marketing – some random thoughts  Supply chain & Marketing – some random thoughts
Supply chain & Marketing – some random thoughts
 
E commerce logistics - basics
E commerce logistics - basicsE commerce logistics - basics
E commerce logistics - basics
 
What is LMD? Adapting to Retail & e-Com Order Fulfilment Challenges
What is LMD? Adapting to Retail & e-Com Order Fulfilment ChallengesWhat is LMD? Adapting to Retail & e-Com Order Fulfilment Challenges
What is LMD? Adapting to Retail & e-Com Order Fulfilment Challenges
 
How Last Mile Delivery affects the Supply Chain, E-tailing & Order fulfilment
How Last Mile Delivery affects the Supply Chain, E-tailing & Order fulfilment How Last Mile Delivery affects the Supply Chain, E-tailing & Order fulfilment
How Last Mile Delivery affects the Supply Chain, E-tailing & Order fulfilment
 
Transition in Asia – How to grasp opportunities & meet new challenges in a tr...
Transition in Asia – How to grasp opportunities & meet new challenges in a tr...Transition in Asia – How to grasp opportunities & meet new challenges in a tr...
Transition in Asia – How to grasp opportunities & meet new challenges in a tr...
 
E commerce – how it is changing supply chains
E commerce – how it is changing supply chains  E commerce – how it is changing supply chains
E commerce – how it is changing supply chains
 
Optimising strategies for SCM
Optimising strategies for SCMOptimising strategies for SCM
Optimising strategies for SCM
 
Highlights of union budget FY16-17
Highlights of union budget FY16-17Highlights of union budget FY16-17
Highlights of union budget FY16-17
 
A to Z of FY16-17 Budget
A to Z of  FY16-17 BudgetA to Z of  FY16-17 Budget
A to Z of FY16-17 Budget
 

Recently uploaded

Governor Olli Rehn: Inflation down and recovery supported by interest rate cu...
Governor Olli Rehn: Inflation down and recovery supported by interest rate cu...Governor Olli Rehn: Inflation down and recovery supported by interest rate cu...
Governor Olli Rehn: Inflation down and recovery supported by interest rate cu...
Suomen Pankki
 
Tdasx: In-Depth Analysis of Cryptocurrency Giveaway Scams and Security Strate...
Tdasx: In-Depth Analysis of Cryptocurrency Giveaway Scams and Security Strate...Tdasx: In-Depth Analysis of Cryptocurrency Giveaway Scams and Security Strate...
Tdasx: In-Depth Analysis of Cryptocurrency Giveaway Scams and Security Strate...
nimaruinazawa258
 
What's a worker’s market? Job quality and labour market tightness
What's a worker’s market? Job quality and labour market tightnessWhat's a worker’s market? Job quality and labour market tightness
What's a worker’s market? Job quality and labour market tightness
Labour Market Information Council | Conseil de l’information sur le marché du travail
 
一比一原版美国新罕布什尔大学(unh)毕业证学历认证真实可查
一比一原版美国新罕布什尔大学(unh)毕业证学历认证真实可查一比一原版美国新罕布什尔大学(unh)毕业证学历认证真实可查
一比一原版美国新罕布什尔大学(unh)毕业证学历认证真实可查
taqyea
 
Seeman_Fiintouch_LLP_Newsletter_Jun_2024.pdf
Seeman_Fiintouch_LLP_Newsletter_Jun_2024.pdfSeeman_Fiintouch_LLP_Newsletter_Jun_2024.pdf
Seeman_Fiintouch_LLP_Newsletter_Jun_2024.pdf
Ashis Kumar Dey
 
Machine Learning in Business - A power point presentation.pptx
Machine Learning in Business - A power point presentation.pptxMachine Learning in Business - A power point presentation.pptx
Machine Learning in Business - A power point presentation.pptx
mimiroselowe
 
Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024) FDI, Culture, Glo...
Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024) FDI, Culture, Glo...Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024) FDI, Culture, Glo...
Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024) FDI, Culture, Glo...
AntoniaOwensDetwiler
 
RMIT University degree offer diploma Transcript
RMIT University degree offer diploma TranscriptRMIT University degree offer diploma Transcript
RMIT University degree offer diploma Transcript
cahyrnui
 
在线办理(UMASS毕业证书)马萨诸塞大学阿默斯特分校毕业证完成信一模一样
在线办理(UMASS毕业证书)马萨诸塞大学阿默斯特分校毕业证完成信一模一样在线办理(UMASS毕业证书)马萨诸塞大学阿默斯特分校毕业证完成信一模一样
在线办理(UMASS毕业证书)马萨诸塞大学阿默斯特分校毕业证完成信一模一样
5spllj1l
 
快速办理(美国Fordham毕业证书)福德汉姆大学毕业证学历证书一模一样
快速办理(美国Fordham毕业证书)福德汉姆大学毕业证学历证书一模一样快速办理(美国Fordham毕业证书)福德汉姆大学毕业证学历证书一模一样
快速办理(美国Fordham毕业证书)福德汉姆大学毕业证学历证书一模一样
5spllj1l
 
University of North Carolina at Charlotte degree offer diploma Transcript
University of North Carolina at Charlotte degree offer diploma TranscriptUniversity of North Carolina at Charlotte degree offer diploma Transcript
University of North Carolina at Charlotte degree offer diploma Transcript
tscdzuip
 
Dr. Alyce Su Cover Story - China's Investment Leader
Dr. Alyce Su Cover Story - China's Investment LeaderDr. Alyce Su Cover Story - China's Investment Leader
Dr. Alyce Su Cover Story - China's Investment Leader
msthrill
 
STREETONOMICS: Exploring the Uncharted Territories of Informal Markets throug...
STREETONOMICS: Exploring the Uncharted Territories of Informal Markets throug...STREETONOMICS: Exploring the Uncharted Territories of Informal Markets throug...
STREETONOMICS: Exploring the Uncharted Territories of Informal Markets throug...
sameer shah
 
Tdasx: In-Depth Analysis of Cryptocurrency Giveaway Scams and Security Strate...
Tdasx: In-Depth Analysis of Cryptocurrency Giveaway Scams and Security Strate...Tdasx: In-Depth Analysis of Cryptocurrency Giveaway Scams and Security Strate...
Tdasx: In-Depth Analysis of Cryptocurrency Giveaway Scams and Security Strate...
bresciafarid233
 
Money20/20 and EU Networking Event of 20/24!
Money20/20 and EU Networking Event of 20/24!Money20/20 and EU Networking Event of 20/24!
Money20/20 and EU Networking Event of 20/24!
FinTech Belgium
 
Discover the Future of Dogecoin with Our Comprehensive Guidance
Discover the Future of Dogecoin with Our Comprehensive GuidanceDiscover the Future of Dogecoin with Our Comprehensive Guidance
Discover the Future of Dogecoin with Our Comprehensive Guidance
36 Crypto
 
Fabular Frames and the Four Ratio Problem
Fabular Frames and the Four Ratio ProblemFabular Frames and the Four Ratio Problem
Fabular Frames and the Four Ratio Problem
Majid Iqbal
 
高仿英国伦敦艺术大学毕业证(ual毕业证书)文凭证书原版一模一样
高仿英国伦敦艺术大学毕业证(ual毕业证书)文凭证书原版一模一样高仿英国伦敦艺术大学毕业证(ual毕业证书)文凭证书原版一模一样
高仿英国伦敦艺术大学毕业证(ual毕业证书)文凭证书原版一模一样
234knry
 
falcon-invoice-discounting-a-premier-investment-platform-for-superior-returns...
falcon-invoice-discounting-a-premier-investment-platform-for-superior-returns...falcon-invoice-discounting-a-premier-investment-platform-for-superior-returns...
falcon-invoice-discounting-a-premier-investment-platform-for-superior-returns...
Falcon Invoice Discounting
 
快速制作美国迈阿密大学牛津分校毕业证文凭证书英文原版一模一样
快速制作美国迈阿密大学牛津分校毕业证文凭证书英文原版一模一样快速制作美国迈阿密大学牛津分校毕业证文凭证书英文原版一模一样
快速制作美国迈阿密大学牛津分校毕业证文凭证书英文原版一模一样
rlo9fxi
 

Recently uploaded (20)

Governor Olli Rehn: Inflation down and recovery supported by interest rate cu...
Governor Olli Rehn: Inflation down and recovery supported by interest rate cu...Governor Olli Rehn: Inflation down and recovery supported by interest rate cu...
Governor Olli Rehn: Inflation down and recovery supported by interest rate cu...
 
Tdasx: In-Depth Analysis of Cryptocurrency Giveaway Scams and Security Strate...
Tdasx: In-Depth Analysis of Cryptocurrency Giveaway Scams and Security Strate...Tdasx: In-Depth Analysis of Cryptocurrency Giveaway Scams and Security Strate...
Tdasx: In-Depth Analysis of Cryptocurrency Giveaway Scams and Security Strate...
 
What's a worker’s market? Job quality and labour market tightness
What's a worker’s market? Job quality and labour market tightnessWhat's a worker’s market? Job quality and labour market tightness
What's a worker’s market? Job quality and labour market tightness
 
一比一原版美国新罕布什尔大学(unh)毕业证学历认证真实可查
一比一原版美国新罕布什尔大学(unh)毕业证学历认证真实可查一比一原版美国新罕布什尔大学(unh)毕业证学历认证真实可查
一比一原版美国新罕布什尔大学(unh)毕业证学历认证真实可查
 
Seeman_Fiintouch_LLP_Newsletter_Jun_2024.pdf
Seeman_Fiintouch_LLP_Newsletter_Jun_2024.pdfSeeman_Fiintouch_LLP_Newsletter_Jun_2024.pdf
Seeman_Fiintouch_LLP_Newsletter_Jun_2024.pdf
 
Machine Learning in Business - A power point presentation.pptx
Machine Learning in Business - A power point presentation.pptxMachine Learning in Business - A power point presentation.pptx
Machine Learning in Business - A power point presentation.pptx
 
Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024) FDI, Culture, Glo...
Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024) FDI, Culture, Glo...Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024) FDI, Culture, Glo...
Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024) FDI, Culture, Glo...
 
RMIT University degree offer diploma Transcript
RMIT University degree offer diploma TranscriptRMIT University degree offer diploma Transcript
RMIT University degree offer diploma Transcript
 
在线办理(UMASS毕业证书)马萨诸塞大学阿默斯特分校毕业证完成信一模一样
在线办理(UMASS毕业证书)马萨诸塞大学阿默斯特分校毕业证完成信一模一样在线办理(UMASS毕业证书)马萨诸塞大学阿默斯特分校毕业证完成信一模一样
在线办理(UMASS毕业证书)马萨诸塞大学阿默斯特分校毕业证完成信一模一样
 
快速办理(美国Fordham毕业证书)福德汉姆大学毕业证学历证书一模一样
快速办理(美国Fordham毕业证书)福德汉姆大学毕业证学历证书一模一样快速办理(美国Fordham毕业证书)福德汉姆大学毕业证学历证书一模一样
快速办理(美国Fordham毕业证书)福德汉姆大学毕业证学历证书一模一样
 
University of North Carolina at Charlotte degree offer diploma Transcript
University of North Carolina at Charlotte degree offer diploma TranscriptUniversity of North Carolina at Charlotte degree offer diploma Transcript
University of North Carolina at Charlotte degree offer diploma Transcript
 
Dr. Alyce Su Cover Story - China's Investment Leader
Dr. Alyce Su Cover Story - China's Investment LeaderDr. Alyce Su Cover Story - China's Investment Leader
Dr. Alyce Su Cover Story - China's Investment Leader
 
STREETONOMICS: Exploring the Uncharted Territories of Informal Markets throug...
STREETONOMICS: Exploring the Uncharted Territories of Informal Markets throug...STREETONOMICS: Exploring the Uncharted Territories of Informal Markets throug...
STREETONOMICS: Exploring the Uncharted Territories of Informal Markets throug...
 
Tdasx: In-Depth Analysis of Cryptocurrency Giveaway Scams and Security Strate...
Tdasx: In-Depth Analysis of Cryptocurrency Giveaway Scams and Security Strate...Tdasx: In-Depth Analysis of Cryptocurrency Giveaway Scams and Security Strate...
Tdasx: In-Depth Analysis of Cryptocurrency Giveaway Scams and Security Strate...
 
Money20/20 and EU Networking Event of 20/24!
Money20/20 and EU Networking Event of 20/24!Money20/20 and EU Networking Event of 20/24!
Money20/20 and EU Networking Event of 20/24!
 
Discover the Future of Dogecoin with Our Comprehensive Guidance
Discover the Future of Dogecoin with Our Comprehensive GuidanceDiscover the Future of Dogecoin with Our Comprehensive Guidance
Discover the Future of Dogecoin with Our Comprehensive Guidance
 
Fabular Frames and the Four Ratio Problem
Fabular Frames and the Four Ratio ProblemFabular Frames and the Four Ratio Problem
Fabular Frames and the Four Ratio Problem
 
高仿英国伦敦艺术大学毕业证(ual毕业证书)文凭证书原版一模一样
高仿英国伦敦艺术大学毕业证(ual毕业证书)文凭证书原版一模一样高仿英国伦敦艺术大学毕业证(ual毕业证书)文凭证书原版一模一样
高仿英国伦敦艺术大学毕业证(ual毕业证书)文凭证书原版一模一样
 
falcon-invoice-discounting-a-premier-investment-platform-for-superior-returns...
falcon-invoice-discounting-a-premier-investment-platform-for-superior-returns...falcon-invoice-discounting-a-premier-investment-platform-for-superior-returns...
falcon-invoice-discounting-a-premier-investment-platform-for-superior-returns...
 
快速制作美国迈阿密大学牛津分校毕业证文凭证书英文原版一模一样
快速制作美国迈阿密大学牛津分校毕业证文凭证书英文原版一模一样快速制作美国迈阿密大学牛津分校毕业证文凭证书英文原版一模一样
快速制作美国迈阿密大学牛津分校毕业证文凭证书英文原版一模一样
 

Will Chinese flu hit India

  • 1. 1 Will Chinese Flu Hit India? By ZUBIN POONAWALLA With the global economy in FY16 off to one of its worst starts in decades, does it mean we are headed for another global recession like in FY08 or is it time for a bounce-back? Highlights: TREND 1: GLOBAL RECESSION EVERY 8 YEARS -Global economy weak & weakening further -FY15 the worst year for global economy since FY08 crisis -Recessions follow expansions historically -Current economic expansion an aging cycle -Need to look out for what's going to trip the economy -Need to intensely follow China TREND 2: CHINA THE WEAKEST LINK -Chinese economy has become too large -Record debt facilitated China growth in the past -China debt has become a source of vulnerability -Chinese economy was on a debt binge -China is now 10% of global economic output -Too much debt over short time always a warning bell
  • 2. 2 -40% increase in debt in 5 years a danger mark -Have seen a sharp fall in China's debt profile -China is paying the price of the debt binge TREND 3: WILL CHINESE FLU HIT INDIA? -Global trade growth collapsed to 0% in FY15 -Historically 0% global trade growth during recessions -India's exports have collapsed to negative 5% -India can't grow at 8%-9% when exports at negative 5% -India has become most protectionist country -India's increased protectionism troubling -India took 2nd highest protectionist measures in FY15 -Corporate India reeling -India Inc saw 0% sales growth in FY15 -Profit growth likely to be negative for India Inc -Dichotomy between GDP data & corporate performance -India's data credibility under question TREND 4: COMMODITY PRICES PLUNGING TO NORMAL -Current commodity prices near 200-year average -Commodity cycles: boom for a decade, bust for 2 decades
  • 3. 3 -Oil prices not away from 100-year average -Oil prices will continue to fluctuate -$70-80/barrel a peak for oil prices for next 10 years -Biggest risk to US in FY16: energy companies' bankruptcy -Oil prices at $50-60/barrel a sweet spot for India -More fall in oil prices will be bad news for the world -Oil prices at $50-60/barrel a sweet spot for India TREND 5: GLOBAL DIS-INFLATION COMES TO INDIA -India's inflation problem far from being solved -Inflation in India has fallen mostly on back of commodity prices TREND 6: HARD FOR US FEDERAL RESERVE TO RAISE RATES MUCH -US has never been bigger as a financial superpower -50%-60% of world's currencies tied to the $ -US Federal Reserve has to be conscious of the global economy -Hard to imagine Fed raising rates by much -US economy showing signs of slowing down TREND 7: RUPEE CHEAP, OTHERS CHEAPER -Emerging currencies have seen a carnage -Great time for outbound travel for Indians
  • 4. 4 -Emerging currencies have adjusted significantly TREND 8: FANG IN - BRIC OUT -'Fang' the fashionable trend of this decade -Companies getting funding despite being unlisted -Explosion of unicorns across the world -Companies more willing to remain private now -Listing on markets no longer the attraction now -Moving towards a phase of execution for unicorns -Funding will become harder for unicorns TREND 9: INDIA'S PUBLIC SECTOR PROBLEM -Credit growth has fallen dramatically -India needs to fix its banking system -Seen privatisation by benign neglect -Public banks have a share of 70% of assets compared to the average of 30% for emerging world -Public banks have very high non-performing loans -Public banks' bad loans constraining credit growth TREND 10: POLITICAL TURMOIL RISING GLOBALLY -Global anti-incumbency wave is rising
  • 5. 5 -Global anti-incumbency a fall-out of weak economic scenario -Highest violent conflicts in FY15 post-cold war -Seeing escalating geo-political risks