Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of wildfires in Portugal. Rising temperatures, decreasing humidity, and more droughts are creating conditions for more extreme wildfires that exceed suppression capabilities. A new wildfire decision support system is being developed to help manage firefighting resources and anticipate fire spread using data from field reports, aerial monitoring, and satellite imagery integrated into a GIS-based tool. Researchers are working to train the system using artificial intelligence on past wildfire data and monitor vegetation recovery and dryness with satellite data to better predict future fire behavior and priority areas.

1. Akli Benali (aklibenali@gmail.com)
Ana Sá, JMC Pereira, Alfredo Rocha
Forest Research Center - Univ of Lisbon
CESAM – Univ of Aveiro
Fábio Silva (fabio.silva@prociv.pt)
Carlos Mota, Alexandre Penha
Special Civil Protection Force
Nat Auth Civil Protection & Emergency
Adapting to a changing climate in the management of wildfires
OECD, Paris, France, Jan. 2019

2. Context
The main drivers of wildfires in Portugal
 Decrease in relative humidity
 Increase in drought frequency
 Increase in extreme phenomena
(e.g. heat waves, hurricanes)
Climate
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Fuels and Humans
 Conditions for vegetation growth
 Lack of management and spatial
planning
 Large fuel accumulation
Climate Change vs. Anthropogenic Change

3. Context 2
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 More intense and fast
spreading wildfires
 More frequently above
suppression capability
 Larger wildfires
 Larger unpredictability
The main consequences
source: ICNF
source: FEPC
Number of fires larger
than 10 000 ha &
Percentage of total area

4. Context 3
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The motivation
 The increase in the frequency of extreme days and
extreme fire behavior is challenging our knowledge
 Inform a large number of inhabitants and entities
 Manage different types of fire suppression
resources
 Disseminate information prior, during and after
wildfires
… require adequate tools to face a more demanding context at an
appropriate scale.
source: FEPC

5. Wildfire Decision Support System 4
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Field data
Aerial
monit.
Resources
location
Firefighters

6. Wildfire Decision Support System 5
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Field data
Aerial
monit.
Resources
location
Firefighters
source: GIPS
source: FEPC

7. Wildfire Decision Support System 6
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Field data
Aerial
monit.
Resources
location
Firefighters
source: FEPC

8. Wildfire Decision Support System 7
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Field data
Aerial
monit.
Resources
location
GIS-based
DS Tool
FEB MonitorizaçãoFirefighters GIS data
source: FEPC

9. Wildfire Decision Support System 8
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Command
Centers
Decision
Support Cell
Field data
Aerial
monit.
Resources
location
GIS-based
DS tool
Firefighters GIS data
source: FEPC

10. Wildfire Decision Support System 9
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Information, decisions
and recommendations
flow back to the fieldField data
Aerial
monit.
Resources
location
GIS-based
DS tool
Firefighters GIS data
Command
Centers
Decision
Support Cell

11. Wildfire Decision Support System 10
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Ignition
Active fire
Extinct fire
Intense fire
Spot fire
Aftermath
Fire progression
Spread axis
Picture
Add. Information
Sensitive area

12. Integrating Research into Practice 11
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Where is our research being developed and used?
 Satellite vegetation
monitoring
 Behavior of a
potential wildfire
 Prioritize wildfire
occurrences
 Anticipate fire
spread and behavior

13. Integrating Research into Practice 12
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Anticipating fire spread
Burn probability
Very probable
Probable
Medium prob.
Improbable
Very improbable
Burn probability
When is it likely to grow faster?
How intense will it be?

14. Integrating Research into Practice 13
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Anticipating fire spread (on-going work)
Training the fire spread simulation
system with past wildfires using AI

15. Integrating Research into Practice 14
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Monitoring vegetation using satellite data
 Exploring the large availability of satellite
data to monitor:
 vegetation re-growth after wildfires
 vegetation state (moisture and
biomass)
NDVI 2017 (Oct.)
vs.
NDVI 2019 (Jul)
Vegetation loss
and/or drying
Vegetation gain
and/or wetting
No change
2017 wildfires
2019 wildfire

16. Lessons learned
While this is an on-going work…
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 Fire Suppression vs. Fire Prevention
 Bridging research and practice: Knowledge transfer vs. Co-Creation of knowledge
 Innovation & Technology must consider the Human component:
scale of development ≠ scale of implementation
source: FEPC

17. Fábio Silva
fabio.silva@prociv.pt
Carlos Mota
carlos.mota@prociv.pt
Ana Sá
anasa@isa.ulisboa.pt
Akli Benali
aklibenali@gmail.com
Alexandre Penha
alexandre.penha@prociv.pt
Alfredo Rocha
alfredo.rocha@ua.ptJosé MC Pereira
jmocpereira@gmail.com