This paper focuses on the share and incidence of nominal and real wages cuts in the Finnish private sector. It complements other analyses of downward wage rigidities especially by looking for individual and employer characteristics that might explain the likelihood of observing an individual’s wage cut. The examinations are based on Probit models that include individual characteristics, employer characteristics, and the form of remuneration as explanatory variables. We find relatively few individual or employer characteristics that have a strong and common influence on the likelihood of wage decline across the different segments of labour markets. However, the full-time workers have had a lower likelihood of nominal and real wage declines during the 1990s compared with part-time workers. Declines in wages have also been more common in small plants/firms. In addition, nominal wage declines have been more transitory by their nature within the segments of the Finnish labour markets in which they are more common. Overall, the frequency of nominal wage declines has been fairly low for manufacturing nonmanuals and service sector workers but somewhat higher for manual workers in manufacturing. However, nominal wage moderation together with a positive inflation rate produced real wage cuts for a large proportion of employees during the worst recession years of the early 1990s.
This document reports on a study of micro-level evidence of wage rigidities in Finland using individual-level wage data from 1985 to 2001. The study finds that while there was some macroeconomic flexibility during recessions like in the early 1990s, wages in Finland are rigid downward at the individual level. Real wages regained high rigidity in the late 1990s despite continued high unemployment. Internationally, Finland has high real wage rigidity compared to other European countries. The document describes different concepts of wage rigidity research and outlines the data and methods used to analyze nominal and real wage rigidities in Finland.
This paper uses panel data from 1989 to 1995 on blue-collar workers in Finnish manufacturing industries and their establishments to assess the extent to which hours of work are affected by individual or establishment characteristics – observed as well as unobserved. We argue that the recent research on hours of work has focused almost exclusively on the supply of labor, but that insights into the extent to which hours variation is driven not by supply but by demand will affect the likelihood that supply-side policies will succeed to overcome the high European unemployment trap. Our estimates show that establishment level variation is almost as important as that on the individual level in the total variation of hours. This suggests that at least part of the variation of hours is driven by demand
The recession of the early 1990s caused a serious unemployment problem in Finland. The number of unemployed increased dramatically and the share of long-term unemployed became nearly tenfold. This study analyses the background of variation in unemployment duration using individual data from 1987 to 2000. The dataset consists of a large random sample of Finnish workers entering unemployment. The main focus is on the relative contribution of macroeconomic conditions and com- positional variation to unemployment duration. Generally, it is assumed that individuals who are laid o® during a recession have weaker characteristics considering re-employment possibilities compared with other times. In addition, it is studied how the different type of people are influenced by the business cycle, and have the factors affecting unemployment duration changed during the period. Also the question of duration dependence is examined. Duration depedence means how the elapsed length of unemployment changes the possibility of employment. In most countries, the effect is negative. The magnitude of duration dependence is important for the design of the labor market policy. The analysis is done using a proportional hazard model with a non-parametric specification for the baseline hazard. The regional unemployment rate is used to capture the macroeconomic conditions. Separate models are estimated for shorter time periods in order to study the changes in the parameter values as well as to take into account the non-proportional effects between the time periods. The relative effects of compositional and business cycle components are identified following Rosholm's (2001) approach. Based on the analysis it is concluded that there are asymmetric effects between the periods. The shape of the baseline hazard changes and some individual parameters have trends in the effects. This is probably explained by the structural changes in the economy that took place due to the recession. There seems to be strong negative duration dependence and only a relatively small effect of heterogeneity on the baseline hazard. Evidence against the ranking model is found because the duration dependence is not affected by the level of unemployment. The effect of compositional variation is found to be important. The results suggest, surprisingly, that the characteristics of unemployed became better during the recession. Again, the severity of the recession might explain this if it caused workers to be laid off more randomly compared with other times.
The nature of co-movement between total output and employment during the 1990s indicates that the relationship between employment growth and economic activity has been peculiar in Finland. This has been reflected, for example, in the developments of aggregate labour productivity. In particular, the years from 1992 to 1994 were exceptional. During that period productivity growth was very rapid, and, what is important, the trend of aggregate labour productivity shifted upwards. By only analysing the relationship between total output and employment it is impossible to say what happened during the period between 1992 and 1994. In this paper the relationship is analysed by utilizing industry-level data. The analysis shows that the rapid growth in aggregate productivity and the upward shift in the productivity trend mainly reflect similar developments in manufacturing, particularly in the metal industry. Even though the investigation is based on the use of industry-level data, it is still aggregative, which makes the interpretation of the results less clearcut. The existing studies which are based on the use of micro-level (e.g. plant-level) data support the interpretation which emphasizes the role of business restructuring and labour reallocation within manufacturing as the causes of rapid productivity growth and the upward shift in the trend productivity. The analysis is based on the estimation of simple structural VAR models.
The study explores the empirical determination of perceived job instability in European labour markets. The study is based on the large-scale survey from the year 1998 covering the 15 member states of the European Union and Norway. There are evidently large differences in the amount of perceived job instability from country to country. The lowest level of perceived job instabity is in Denmark (9%). In contrast, the highest level of perceived job instability is in Spain (63%). The results show that perceived job instability increases with age. Educational level, on the other hand, does not correlate strongly with the perception of job instability. There are no differences in the perceptions of job instability between males and females. An occurrence of unemployment during the past five years yields a substantial rise in the perception of job instability. The empirical finding that unemployment history strongly matters for the perception of job instability is consistent with the notion that an unemployment episode provides otherwise private information about unobservable productivity of an employee. The most striking result is that a temporary contract as such does not yield an additional increase to the perception of job instability at the individual level of the economy. However, the perception of job instability is more common within manufacturing industries. In addition, the perception of job instability by employees increases according to the size of the firm. There are also strong country effects.
This document summarizes a study examining the relationship between labor share and unemployment in major OECD countries from 1972 to 2008. It analyzes whether the relationship has changed in a way that could indicate weakened bargaining power for labor. The study uses panel data and statistical methods for non-stationary panels to estimate wage curves and dynamic equations modeling how labor share adjusts to unemployment. Preliminary results suggest labor share declines in most OECD countries cannot be fully explained by rising unemployment and likely reflect weakened bargaining power for labor unions. The nature of the relationship may also differ between countries with varying wage-setting institutions and bargaining coordination.
The impact of unemployment rate on productivity growth in nigeria an error c...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a journal article that examines the relationship between unemployment rate and productivity growth in Nigeria from 1986 to 2010. It uses cointegration and error correction modeling approaches. The results showed the variables were cointegrated but unemployment had an insignificant influence on productivity growth over the period. The document provides background on debates around the productivity-unemployment nexus. It reviews relevant literature and theories including search theory, real business cycles theory, and real wage rigidities. It describes the methodology and outlines sections on results, conclusions, and recommendations for government actions to address rising unemployment.
This document reports on a study of micro-level evidence of wage rigidities in Finland using individual-level wage data from 1985 to 2001. The study finds that while there was some macroeconomic flexibility during recessions like in the early 1990s, wages in Finland are rigid downward at the individual level. Real wages regained high rigidity in the late 1990s despite continued high unemployment. Internationally, Finland has high real wage rigidity compared to other European countries. The document describes different concepts of wage rigidity research and outlines the data and methods used to analyze nominal and real wage rigidities in Finland.
This paper uses panel data from 1989 to 1995 on blue-collar workers in Finnish manufacturing industries and their establishments to assess the extent to which hours of work are affected by individual or establishment characteristics – observed as well as unobserved. We argue that the recent research on hours of work has focused almost exclusively on the supply of labor, but that insights into the extent to which hours variation is driven not by supply but by demand will affect the likelihood that supply-side policies will succeed to overcome the high European unemployment trap. Our estimates show that establishment level variation is almost as important as that on the individual level in the total variation of hours. This suggests that at least part of the variation of hours is driven by demand
The recession of the early 1990s caused a serious unemployment problem in Finland. The number of unemployed increased dramatically and the share of long-term unemployed became nearly tenfold. This study analyses the background of variation in unemployment duration using individual data from 1987 to 2000. The dataset consists of a large random sample of Finnish workers entering unemployment. The main focus is on the relative contribution of macroeconomic conditions and com- positional variation to unemployment duration. Generally, it is assumed that individuals who are laid o® during a recession have weaker characteristics considering re-employment possibilities compared with other times. In addition, it is studied how the different type of people are influenced by the business cycle, and have the factors affecting unemployment duration changed during the period. Also the question of duration dependence is examined. Duration depedence means how the elapsed length of unemployment changes the possibility of employment. In most countries, the effect is negative. The magnitude of duration dependence is important for the design of the labor market policy. The analysis is done using a proportional hazard model with a non-parametric specification for the baseline hazard. The regional unemployment rate is used to capture the macroeconomic conditions. Separate models are estimated for shorter time periods in order to study the changes in the parameter values as well as to take into account the non-proportional effects between the time periods. The relative effects of compositional and business cycle components are identified following Rosholm's (2001) approach. Based on the analysis it is concluded that there are asymmetric effects between the periods. The shape of the baseline hazard changes and some individual parameters have trends in the effects. This is probably explained by the structural changes in the economy that took place due to the recession. There seems to be strong negative duration dependence and only a relatively small effect of heterogeneity on the baseline hazard. Evidence against the ranking model is found because the duration dependence is not affected by the level of unemployment. The effect of compositional variation is found to be important. The results suggest, surprisingly, that the characteristics of unemployed became better during the recession. Again, the severity of the recession might explain this if it caused workers to be laid off more randomly compared with other times.
The nature of co-movement between total output and employment during the 1990s indicates that the relationship between employment growth and economic activity has been peculiar in Finland. This has been reflected, for example, in the developments of aggregate labour productivity. In particular, the years from 1992 to 1994 were exceptional. During that period productivity growth was very rapid, and, what is important, the trend of aggregate labour productivity shifted upwards. By only analysing the relationship between total output and employment it is impossible to say what happened during the period between 1992 and 1994. In this paper the relationship is analysed by utilizing industry-level data. The analysis shows that the rapid growth in aggregate productivity and the upward shift in the productivity trend mainly reflect similar developments in manufacturing, particularly in the metal industry. Even though the investigation is based on the use of industry-level data, it is still aggregative, which makes the interpretation of the results less clearcut. The existing studies which are based on the use of micro-level (e.g. plant-level) data support the interpretation which emphasizes the role of business restructuring and labour reallocation within manufacturing as the causes of rapid productivity growth and the upward shift in the trend productivity. The analysis is based on the estimation of simple structural VAR models.
The study explores the empirical determination of perceived job instability in European labour markets. The study is based on the large-scale survey from the year 1998 covering the 15 member states of the European Union and Norway. There are evidently large differences in the amount of perceived job instability from country to country. The lowest level of perceived job instabity is in Denmark (9%). In contrast, the highest level of perceived job instability is in Spain (63%). The results show that perceived job instability increases with age. Educational level, on the other hand, does not correlate strongly with the perception of job instability. There are no differences in the perceptions of job instability between males and females. An occurrence of unemployment during the past five years yields a substantial rise in the perception of job instability. The empirical finding that unemployment history strongly matters for the perception of job instability is consistent with the notion that an unemployment episode provides otherwise private information about unobservable productivity of an employee. The most striking result is that a temporary contract as such does not yield an additional increase to the perception of job instability at the individual level of the economy. However, the perception of job instability is more common within manufacturing industries. In addition, the perception of job instability by employees increases according to the size of the firm. There are also strong country effects.
This document summarizes a study examining the relationship between labor share and unemployment in major OECD countries from 1972 to 2008. It analyzes whether the relationship has changed in a way that could indicate weakened bargaining power for labor. The study uses panel data and statistical methods for non-stationary panels to estimate wage curves and dynamic equations modeling how labor share adjusts to unemployment. Preliminary results suggest labor share declines in most OECD countries cannot be fully explained by rising unemployment and likely reflect weakened bargaining power for labor unions. The nature of the relationship may also differ between countries with varying wage-setting institutions and bargaining coordination.
The impact of unemployment rate on productivity growth in nigeria an error c...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a journal article that examines the relationship between unemployment rate and productivity growth in Nigeria from 1986 to 2010. It uses cointegration and error correction modeling approaches. The results showed the variables were cointegrated but unemployment had an insignificant influence on productivity growth over the period. The document provides background on debates around the productivity-unemployment nexus. It reviews relevant literature and theories including search theory, real business cycles theory, and real wage rigidities. It describes the methodology and outlines sections on results, conclusions, and recommendations for government actions to address rising unemployment.
This paper studies wage adjustment during the recent crisis in regulated and unregulated labor markets in Italy. Using a unique dataset on immigrant workers, we show that before the crisis wages in the formal/regulated and informal/unregulated sectors moved in parallel (with a 15 percent premium in the formal labor market). During the crisis, however, formal wages did not adjust down while wages in the unregulated informal labor market fell so that by 2013 the gap had grown to 32 percent. The dierence is especially salient for workers in "simple" occupations where there is high substitutability between immigrant and native workers. Our results are consistent with the view that labor market regulation prevents downward wage adjustment during recessions.
by Sergei Guriev, Biagio Speciale and Michele Tuccio. November 2015
Read more research analysis at https://www.hhs.se/site
This document analyzes the effect of trade liberalization on employment in Tanzania's textile industry through econometric modeling. It reviews literature on the theoretical linkages between trade reforms and labor markets. The study develops models of employment and wages as a function of variables like output, import penetration, export intensity, and technology. It finds that import competition had a larger negative impact on employment than export orientation. Wages also declined with import penetration but were less affected by other factors. The results suggest Tanzania's trade reforms hurt the textile industry's labor market and that a more gradual liberalization coupled with institutional support could have made the reforms more effective.
This paper investigates the extent and determinants of employer demand for part-time work in the three Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland and Sweden) by making a distinction between establishments’ two main reasons for introducing part-time work, i.e. establishment needs and wishes of employees. We study the importance of different characteristics (such as e.g. size, industry, sector, share of female workers) of establishment to the probability of employerbased and of employee-based part-time work. We also put under scrutiny whether different motivations for part-time work also have different outcomes for companies and workers, and how these reasons shape the nature of part-time work. In the analyses we use the Establishment Survey on Working Time and Work-Life Balance (ESWT) in 21 EU Member States including Finland, Sweden and Denmark.
This document summarizes a study that examines the causal relationships between stock prices and macroeconomic variables in Turkey from March 2001 to June 2010. The study uses the Granger causality test to analyze the relationships between the ISE-100 stock index and five macroeconomic variables: foreign exchange rate, gold price, money supply, industrial production index, and consumer price index. The results suggest there is unidirectional long-run causality from stock prices to the macroeconomic variables. This implies that stock prices can serve as a leading indicator for future movements in exchange rates, gold prices, money supply, industrial production, and inflation in Turkey.
As the process of population ageing in Europe carries on and the retirement age increases, the relationship between age and productivity becomes more and more important. One can be afraid that as the average age of the working individual goes up, the average level of productivity growth will go down, resulting in decreasing competitiveness of European economies. Our expectation is that due to serious differences in labor market structures between New Member States (NMS) (including current candidates) and the EU15, the former are the first order candidates to experience higher than average productivity costs of ageing in the near future. In this paper, one tries to examine this hypothesis.
The research strategy in this study has been based on the assumption that, in general, wages are correlated with productivity on the individual level and, as such, can be used as a proxy for productivity. Such an assumption is quite risky and can be easily criticized. Hence, based on the results of earlier studies, our main empirical analysis is limited to groups of workers for which one can expect that correlation between productivity and wages is still substantial.
It seems, that taking all the caveats in mind, the results of our analysis show that the relative productivity of older workers in the NMS is lower than in EU15.
Authored by: Mateusz Walewski
Published in 2007
How has Income Inequality and Wage Disparity Between Native and Foreign Sub-p...Dinal Shah
This study uses repeated cross-sectional data from 2007 to 2015 to examine in
detail what impact the 2008 recession had on income inequality and wage disparity
in the UK and on its sub-populations. The findings suggest inequality in the UK has
been decreasing since 2007, but that the foreign sub-population experiences a
greater degree of inequality than the native sub-population. Additionally, foreign and
native labour are imperfect substitutes where the wages of foreign workers are
greatly more susceptible to economic shocks effecting the UK’s labour market. To
the best of my knowledge this is the first paper to conduct research into income
inequality between native and foreign workers.
An empirical study of macroeconomic factors and stock market an indian persp...Saurabh Yadav
This document presents an empirical study analyzing the relationship between macroeconomic factors and the Indian stock market from 1990 to 2011. The study uses various econometric tools like unit root tests, cointegration tests, vector autoregression models, impulse response analysis, and Granger causality tests to analyze the impact of macroeconomic indicators like industrial production, money supply, inflation on the BSE Sensex index. It aims to contribute new insights on how regulatory changes in the Indian economy over this period impacted asset prices and whether domestic or global factors had a larger influence on the Indian stock market.
This paper analyzes the labor market integration between northern Mexico and southern United States by estimating cyclical components of manufacturing employment in California, Texas, and four Mexican border cities. The analysis suggests greater integration after 1994, with a change in the short-term relationship between Mexican and US manufacturing employment and real wages. The paper estimates trend components using a calibration technique for the Hodrick-Prescott filter, and divides the analysis period into pre- and post-1994 to reflect changes stemming from Mexico's 1994 financial crisis and implementation of NAFTA.
Macroeconomic effects on the stock marketWINGFEI CHAN
This document presents a group project investigating the effects of macroeconomic factors on stock market returns using the S&P 500 index. The project uses monthly data from 2007 to 2011 to test the model developed by Chen, Roll and Ross (1986) which identified seven economic variables that could impact stock prices. The paper reviews previous literature on the topic, describes the data collection and processing methodology, and outlines the ordinary least squares regression analysis and diagnostic tests to be performed. Key macroeconomic variables examined include industrial production, inflation, risk premium, term structure, oil prices and consumption expenditure. The results of the statistical analyses are presented and conclusions are drawn regarding the relationship between the macroeconomic factors and stock market returns.
This paper examine the impact of macroeconomic factors on firm level equity premium. Following
the concept of macro-based risk factor model, we consider macroeconomic variable set of equity premium
determinant. The macroeconomic variables include interest rate, money supply, industrial production, inflation
and foreign direct investment. The macroeconomic variables are not in control of the firm's management. These
are the external factors which affect the company as well as the overall market returns. The Macro-based
Multifactor Model is estimated for the whole sample. It is found that the market premium and the selected five
macroeconomic factors significantly affect the firm level equity premium of non-financial firms. Increase in
market premium, money supply, foreign direct investment and industrial production positively affect the firm
level equity premium while increase in interest rate and inflation negatively affects the firm level equity
premium. These findings are beneficial for the common shareholders, institutional investors and policy makers
to find more specific insight about the relationship between macroeconomic variables and equity premium of
non-financial sectors.
The paper investigates the employment effects of working time reductions in Finland by dividing the economy into six main sectors from 1960 to 1996. Work-sharing works if there exists a tradeoff between the average working time and employment. This means that a reduction in average working hours delivers an increase in employment. The main result is that a reduction in actual average hours seems to deliver an increase in employment in the short run on condition that output does not deteriorate as a result of shorter average working time.
11.exchange rate and macroeconomic aggregates in nigeriaAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that analyzes the impact of exchange rates on macroeconomic aggregates in Nigeria from 1970 to 2009. It uses simultaneous equation models and vector-autoregressive models to examine the relationship between real exchange rates and GDP growth. The results show no strong direct relationship between exchange rate changes and GDP growth. Rather, Nigeria's economic growth has been directly affected by fiscal and monetary policies and exports. Exchange rate overvaluation has been unfavorable for growth. The conclusion is that exchange rate management improvements are necessary but not sufficient to revive the Nigerian economy and broader economic reforms are required.
Exchange rate and macroeconomic aggregates in nigeriaAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that analyzes the impact of exchange rates on macroeconomic aggregates in Nigeria from 1970 to 2009. Using simultaneous equation models and vector-autoregressive models, the study finds no strong direct relationship between exchange rate changes and GDP growth in Nigeria. Rather, economic growth has been directly affected by fiscal and monetary policies and exports, which have sustained an overvalued exchange rate that has been unfavorable for growth. The conclusion is that improving exchange rate management is necessary but not sufficient to revive the Nigerian economy, and a broader program of economic reforms is required, including complementary restrictive monetary policy.
A causal relationship between stock indices and exchange rates empirical evid...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a research paper that examines the causal relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in India from 2001 to 2011. The results indicate there is a bidirectional causal relationship, with negative causality from most stock indices to the exchange rate, and positive causality from technology indices to the exchange rate. The exchange rate also has negative causality to all stock market indices. In addition, the paper reviews several other studies that have examined the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in other countries, finding mixed results.
11.a causal relationship between stock indices and exchange rates empirical e...Alexander Decker
This document examines the causal relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in India from 2001 to 2011. It finds a bidirectional causal relationship, with negative causality from most stock indices to the exchange rate, and positive causality from technology indices to the exchange rate. The exchange rate also has negative causality to all stock market indices. The document reviews several previous studies on the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in various countries and time periods.
11.the impact of macroeconomic indicators on stock prices in nigeriaAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that examines the impact of macroeconomic indicators on stock prices in Nigeria. The study uses secondary data on stock prices of selected firms and six macroeconomic variables between 1985 and 2009. The macroeconomic variables examined are money supply, interest rate, exchange rate, inflation rate, oil price, and gross domestic product. A pooled or panel model is used to analyze the impact of these macroeconomic variables on stock prices at the individual firm level. The empirical findings reveal that macroeconomic variables have varying significant impacts on stock prices, with inflation rate and money supply having no significant impact. The study concludes that trends in macroeconomic variables can predict stock price movements in Nigeria to a great extent.
1.[1 14]the impact of macroeconomic indicators on stock prices in nigeriaAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that examines the impact of macroeconomic indicators on stock prices in Nigeria. The study uses secondary data on stock prices of selected firms and six macroeconomic variables between 1985 and 2009. The macroeconomic variables examined are money supply, interest rate, exchange rate, inflation rate, oil price, and gross domestic product. A pooled or panel model is used to analyze the impact of these macroeconomic variables on stock prices at the individual firm level. The empirical findings reveal that macroeconomic variables have varying significant impacts on stock prices, with inflation rate and money supply having no significant impact. The study concludes that trends in macroeconomic variables can predict stock price movements in Nigeria to a great extent.
IMPACT OF LEVERAGE ON FIRM’S INVESTMENT DECISION OF FOOD - BEVERAGE INDUSTRY.Nghiên Cứu Định Lượng
This document summarizes a study that examined the impact of leverage on the investment decisions of food and beverage companies listed on the Vietnam stock exchange between 2008-2014. The researchers used a GMM model to estimate the relationship between leverage and investment while controlling for factors like cash flow, sales growth, return on assets, and liquidity. The results indicated that leverage only had an immediate impact on investment decisions and affected them with a one period lag. Cash flow and sales growth were also found to impact investment decisions, but the other factors did not influence the investment decisions of food and beverage firms.
This document provides an introduction and overview of papers presented at a symposium on "China's Impact on the Global Economy". It summarizes the key topics and findings of each paper, which examine various aspects of China's economic interactions with the world economy such as China's exchange rate regime, estimates of China's equilibrium real exchange rate, measuring China's relative prices, determinants of China's trade flows, the impact of energy prices on China's economy, and projections of China's future current account balance. The introduction concludes that China's impact on the global economy, while possibly changing over time, will remain significant.
This paper studies wage adjustment during the recent crisis in regulated and unregulated labor markets in Italy. Using a unique dataset on immigrant workers, we show that before the crisis wages in the formal/regulated and informal/unregulated sectors moved in parallel (with a 15 percent premium in the formal labor market). During the crisis, however, formal wages did not adjust down while wages in the unregulated informal labor market fell so that by 2013 the gap had grown to 32 percent. The dierence is especially salient for workers in "simple" occupations where there is high substitutability between immigrant and native workers. Our results are consistent with the view that labor market regulation prevents downward wage adjustment during recessions.
by Sergei Guriev, Biagio Speciale and Michele Tuccio. November 2015
Read more research analysis at https://www.hhs.se/site
This document analyzes the effect of trade liberalization on employment in Tanzania's textile industry through econometric modeling. It reviews literature on the theoretical linkages between trade reforms and labor markets. The study develops models of employment and wages as a function of variables like output, import penetration, export intensity, and technology. It finds that import competition had a larger negative impact on employment than export orientation. Wages also declined with import penetration but were less affected by other factors. The results suggest Tanzania's trade reforms hurt the textile industry's labor market and that a more gradual liberalization coupled with institutional support could have made the reforms more effective.
This paper investigates the extent and determinants of employer demand for part-time work in the three Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland and Sweden) by making a distinction between establishments’ two main reasons for introducing part-time work, i.e. establishment needs and wishes of employees. We study the importance of different characteristics (such as e.g. size, industry, sector, share of female workers) of establishment to the probability of employerbased and of employee-based part-time work. We also put under scrutiny whether different motivations for part-time work also have different outcomes for companies and workers, and how these reasons shape the nature of part-time work. In the analyses we use the Establishment Survey on Working Time and Work-Life Balance (ESWT) in 21 EU Member States including Finland, Sweden and Denmark.
This document summarizes a study that examines the causal relationships between stock prices and macroeconomic variables in Turkey from March 2001 to June 2010. The study uses the Granger causality test to analyze the relationships between the ISE-100 stock index and five macroeconomic variables: foreign exchange rate, gold price, money supply, industrial production index, and consumer price index. The results suggest there is unidirectional long-run causality from stock prices to the macroeconomic variables. This implies that stock prices can serve as a leading indicator for future movements in exchange rates, gold prices, money supply, industrial production, and inflation in Turkey.
As the process of population ageing in Europe carries on and the retirement age increases, the relationship between age and productivity becomes more and more important. One can be afraid that as the average age of the working individual goes up, the average level of productivity growth will go down, resulting in decreasing competitiveness of European economies. Our expectation is that due to serious differences in labor market structures between New Member States (NMS) (including current candidates) and the EU15, the former are the first order candidates to experience higher than average productivity costs of ageing in the near future. In this paper, one tries to examine this hypothesis.
The research strategy in this study has been based on the assumption that, in general, wages are correlated with productivity on the individual level and, as such, can be used as a proxy for productivity. Such an assumption is quite risky and can be easily criticized. Hence, based on the results of earlier studies, our main empirical analysis is limited to groups of workers for which one can expect that correlation between productivity and wages is still substantial.
It seems, that taking all the caveats in mind, the results of our analysis show that the relative productivity of older workers in the NMS is lower than in EU15.
Authored by: Mateusz Walewski
Published in 2007
How has Income Inequality and Wage Disparity Between Native and Foreign Sub-p...Dinal Shah
This study uses repeated cross-sectional data from 2007 to 2015 to examine in
detail what impact the 2008 recession had on income inequality and wage disparity
in the UK and on its sub-populations. The findings suggest inequality in the UK has
been decreasing since 2007, but that the foreign sub-population experiences a
greater degree of inequality than the native sub-population. Additionally, foreign and
native labour are imperfect substitutes where the wages of foreign workers are
greatly more susceptible to economic shocks effecting the UK’s labour market. To
the best of my knowledge this is the first paper to conduct research into income
inequality between native and foreign workers.
An empirical study of macroeconomic factors and stock market an indian persp...Saurabh Yadav
This document presents an empirical study analyzing the relationship between macroeconomic factors and the Indian stock market from 1990 to 2011. The study uses various econometric tools like unit root tests, cointegration tests, vector autoregression models, impulse response analysis, and Granger causality tests to analyze the impact of macroeconomic indicators like industrial production, money supply, inflation on the BSE Sensex index. It aims to contribute new insights on how regulatory changes in the Indian economy over this period impacted asset prices and whether domestic or global factors had a larger influence on the Indian stock market.
This paper analyzes the labor market integration between northern Mexico and southern United States by estimating cyclical components of manufacturing employment in California, Texas, and four Mexican border cities. The analysis suggests greater integration after 1994, with a change in the short-term relationship between Mexican and US manufacturing employment and real wages. The paper estimates trend components using a calibration technique for the Hodrick-Prescott filter, and divides the analysis period into pre- and post-1994 to reflect changes stemming from Mexico's 1994 financial crisis and implementation of NAFTA.
Macroeconomic effects on the stock marketWINGFEI CHAN
This document presents a group project investigating the effects of macroeconomic factors on stock market returns using the S&P 500 index. The project uses monthly data from 2007 to 2011 to test the model developed by Chen, Roll and Ross (1986) which identified seven economic variables that could impact stock prices. The paper reviews previous literature on the topic, describes the data collection and processing methodology, and outlines the ordinary least squares regression analysis and diagnostic tests to be performed. Key macroeconomic variables examined include industrial production, inflation, risk premium, term structure, oil prices and consumption expenditure. The results of the statistical analyses are presented and conclusions are drawn regarding the relationship between the macroeconomic factors and stock market returns.
This paper examine the impact of macroeconomic factors on firm level equity premium. Following
the concept of macro-based risk factor model, we consider macroeconomic variable set of equity premium
determinant. The macroeconomic variables include interest rate, money supply, industrial production, inflation
and foreign direct investment. The macroeconomic variables are not in control of the firm's management. These
are the external factors which affect the company as well as the overall market returns. The Macro-based
Multifactor Model is estimated for the whole sample. It is found that the market premium and the selected five
macroeconomic factors significantly affect the firm level equity premium of non-financial firms. Increase in
market premium, money supply, foreign direct investment and industrial production positively affect the firm
level equity premium while increase in interest rate and inflation negatively affects the firm level equity
premium. These findings are beneficial for the common shareholders, institutional investors and policy makers
to find more specific insight about the relationship between macroeconomic variables and equity premium of
non-financial sectors.
The paper investigates the employment effects of working time reductions in Finland by dividing the economy into six main sectors from 1960 to 1996. Work-sharing works if there exists a tradeoff between the average working time and employment. This means that a reduction in average working hours delivers an increase in employment. The main result is that a reduction in actual average hours seems to deliver an increase in employment in the short run on condition that output does not deteriorate as a result of shorter average working time.
11.exchange rate and macroeconomic aggregates in nigeriaAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that analyzes the impact of exchange rates on macroeconomic aggregates in Nigeria from 1970 to 2009. It uses simultaneous equation models and vector-autoregressive models to examine the relationship between real exchange rates and GDP growth. The results show no strong direct relationship between exchange rate changes and GDP growth. Rather, Nigeria's economic growth has been directly affected by fiscal and monetary policies and exports. Exchange rate overvaluation has been unfavorable for growth. The conclusion is that exchange rate management improvements are necessary but not sufficient to revive the Nigerian economy and broader economic reforms are required.
Exchange rate and macroeconomic aggregates in nigeriaAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that analyzes the impact of exchange rates on macroeconomic aggregates in Nigeria from 1970 to 2009. Using simultaneous equation models and vector-autoregressive models, the study finds no strong direct relationship between exchange rate changes and GDP growth in Nigeria. Rather, economic growth has been directly affected by fiscal and monetary policies and exports, which have sustained an overvalued exchange rate that has been unfavorable for growth. The conclusion is that improving exchange rate management is necessary but not sufficient to revive the Nigerian economy, and a broader program of economic reforms is required, including complementary restrictive monetary policy.
A causal relationship between stock indices and exchange rates empirical evid...Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a research paper that examines the causal relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in India from 2001 to 2011. The results indicate there is a bidirectional causal relationship, with negative causality from most stock indices to the exchange rate, and positive causality from technology indices to the exchange rate. The exchange rate also has negative causality to all stock market indices. In addition, the paper reviews several other studies that have examined the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in other countries, finding mixed results.
11.a causal relationship between stock indices and exchange rates empirical e...Alexander Decker
This document examines the causal relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in India from 2001 to 2011. It finds a bidirectional causal relationship, with negative causality from most stock indices to the exchange rate, and positive causality from technology indices to the exchange rate. The exchange rate also has negative causality to all stock market indices. The document reviews several previous studies on the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in various countries and time periods.
11.the impact of macroeconomic indicators on stock prices in nigeriaAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that examines the impact of macroeconomic indicators on stock prices in Nigeria. The study uses secondary data on stock prices of selected firms and six macroeconomic variables between 1985 and 2009. The macroeconomic variables examined are money supply, interest rate, exchange rate, inflation rate, oil price, and gross domestic product. A pooled or panel model is used to analyze the impact of these macroeconomic variables on stock prices at the individual firm level. The empirical findings reveal that macroeconomic variables have varying significant impacts on stock prices, with inflation rate and money supply having no significant impact. The study concludes that trends in macroeconomic variables can predict stock price movements in Nigeria to a great extent.
1.[1 14]the impact of macroeconomic indicators on stock prices in nigeriaAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that examines the impact of macroeconomic indicators on stock prices in Nigeria. The study uses secondary data on stock prices of selected firms and six macroeconomic variables between 1985 and 2009. The macroeconomic variables examined are money supply, interest rate, exchange rate, inflation rate, oil price, and gross domestic product. A pooled or panel model is used to analyze the impact of these macroeconomic variables on stock prices at the individual firm level. The empirical findings reveal that macroeconomic variables have varying significant impacts on stock prices, with inflation rate and money supply having no significant impact. The study concludes that trends in macroeconomic variables can predict stock price movements in Nigeria to a great extent.
IMPACT OF LEVERAGE ON FIRM’S INVESTMENT DECISION OF FOOD - BEVERAGE INDUSTRY.Nghiên Cứu Định Lượng
This document summarizes a study that examined the impact of leverage on the investment decisions of food and beverage companies listed on the Vietnam stock exchange between 2008-2014. The researchers used a GMM model to estimate the relationship between leverage and investment while controlling for factors like cash flow, sales growth, return on assets, and liquidity. The results indicated that leverage only had an immediate impact on investment decisions and affected them with a one period lag. Cash flow and sales growth were also found to impact investment decisions, but the other factors did not influence the investment decisions of food and beverage firms.
This document provides an introduction and overview of papers presented at a symposium on "China's Impact on the Global Economy". It summarizes the key topics and findings of each paper, which examine various aspects of China's economic interactions with the world economy such as China's exchange rate regime, estimates of China's equilibrium real exchange rate, measuring China's relative prices, determinants of China's trade flows, the impact of energy prices on China's economy, and projections of China's future current account balance. The introduction concludes that China's impact on the global economy, while possibly changing over time, will remain significant.
This paper studies the effects of school choice on segregation. We analyze the effect of a reform in Stockholm that changed the admission system of public upper secondary schools. Before the year 2000, students were assigned to their nearest school, but from the fall of 2000 and onwards, the students can apply to any school within Stockholm City and admission decisions are based on grades only. We show that the distribution of students over schools changed dramatically as a response to extending school choice. As expected, the new admission policy increased segregation by ability. However, segregation by family background, as well as, segregation between immigrants and natives also increased significantly.
In the case considered, risk averse firms agree in advance to share R&D results but not R&D costs. Real R&D expenditure is unobservable, which creates a moral hazard problem. The firms contract at the first stage on the intensity of cooperation and at the secong stage on the research effort. Moral hazard weakens the firms´ motives to invest in R&D during cooperation. But diversifying the portfolio of R&D projects through cooperation increases firms´ utility. It turns out that in the absence of monitoring, the firms choose either high effort and low intensity of cooperation. If a firm can monitor a partner´s real R&D effort through a signal, moral hazard can weaken to an extent that risk averse and independent firms choose high effort and maximal intensity of cooperation, even if they were indifferent between high effort and low effort under isolation.
In recent years temporary agency work (TAW) has rapidly been expanding in Finland. This has shown both in the increase of the number of temporary agency workers and of
the number of user firms as well as in the growth of industry’s business turnover. Reliance on temporary agency work in Finland is still quite modest. In 1999 the share of temporary agency workers of all labour force in Finland was around 1.2 per cent, i.e. around 31 200 workers, whereas the corresponding share in Europe was on average 2.5 per cent. Around 15 000 of these workers had temporary agency work as their major source of living. The number of temporary agency firms was around 170, of which nearly half operated in the entertainment industry. The business turnover of the whole
industry in 1999 was around 1.08 billion FIM. In addition to hiring labour, some Finnish temporary agencies have broadened their scope of operation to include other services
as well (e.g. recruitment, outsourcing).
Palkansaajien tutkimuslaitos on tehnyt ennusteen teollisuuden, rakentamisen, kuljetuksen, informaatiopalveluiden sekä liike-elämän palveluiden kehityksestä vuoteen 2017 asti. Näiden toimialojen tuotanto kasvaa tänä vuonna keskimäärin vajaan prosentin viime vuodesta. Pelkästään teollisuuden (pl. elintarviketeollisuus) tuotanto supistuu 0,6 prosenttia. Viennin vauhdittuminen vuosina 2016 ja 2017 näkyy tarkasteltavien toimialojen tuotannon lähivuosien kasvussa. Yhteen laskien kyseiset toimialat kasvavat ensi vuonna ja vuonna 2017 noin kolme prosenttia. Tehdasteollisuudessa kasvu jää tätä puoli prosenttiyksikköä hitaammaksi. Venäjän viennin jyrkkä supistuminen näyttää olevan pääsyy siihen, miksi teollisuutemme kasvu on vuodesta 2014 lähtien ollut muita Euroopan maita hitaampaa.
This study considers the impact of M&As on a firm’s R&D investments. We have analysed the impacts of the incidences in which a firm becomes a target and, on the other hand, an acquirer. M&As are classified in our study as being either domestic or cross-border. In addition, domestic M&As are classified – if needed – according to geographical and technological proximity. The results obtained show that M&As tend to increase acquirers’ R&D investments, and decrease targets’ R&D investments or keep them unchanged. The clearest positive effect is related to the incidence in which a Finnish firm buys a foreign firm. On the other hand, when a foreign firm buys a Finnish firm, the impact is zero.
This study focuses on the production welfare services which are purchased by the government. We consider whether the delivery of the service should be public or private. The social impact of the service is determined by the satisfaction of unforeseen individual needs. Assuming that the information about these needs is ex post observed only by the producer of the service favours public production. Auctioning the right-to-produce contract, however, selects the most cost-efficient private supplier. Whether private production is optimal resolves from the trade-off between cost efficiency and a failure in meeting individual needs. We also analyse investments in monitoring.
This paper explores the effects of outsourcing on employee well-being through the use of the Finnish linked employer-employee data. The direct negative effect of outsourcing is attributable to greater job destruction and worker outflow. In terms of perceived well-being, the winners in international outsourcing are those who are capable of performing interactive tasks (i.e., managers, professionals and experts), especially when offshoring involves closer connections to other developed countries.
Suomalainen hyvinvointivaltio kuuluu monella mittarilla maailman huippujen joukkoon. Nyt kuitenkin se on tullut käännekohtaansa. Maan talousahdingon ja julkisen talouden velkaantumisen nimissä tulee monilta tahoilta vaatimuksia, että julkista sektoria on ajettava alas. Sosiaaliturvaa ja hyvinvointipalveluja on leikattava. Seuraavat eduskuntavaalit ja hallitusohjelma voivat ratkaista kehityksen suunnan.
Mutta mitä kello on lyönyt? Mikä oikeasti on hyvinvointivaltiomme nykytila? Mitä puutteita siinä on, onko sitä pakko ajaa alas, vai onko sitä mahdollista kehittää edelleen? Näitä ja monia muita hyvinvointivaltioon liittyviä kysymyksiä pohtivat tässä kirjassa maamme huippuasiantuntijat. He ovat saaneet vapaat kädet nostaa esiin tärkeimpiä asioita omilta aloiltaan.
Tutkimuksen perustavoitteena on verrata suomalaisen palkansaajan palkkatasoa eri näkökulmista lähinnä eri EU-maissa työskentelevien palkansaajien palkkoihin. Tiedon lähteenä on EU:n tulo- ja elinolotutkimuksen aineisto eli ns. EU-SILC -aineisto. Suurin osa vertailuista on tehty kokoaikaisille palkansaajille. Tuoreimmat tiedot ovat vuodelta 2011.
Nykyisten EU-maiden joukossa Suomen kokoaikaisten palkansaajien keskimääräi-nen palkkataso, 3132 euroa kuukaudessa vuonna 2011, on EU-keskitasoa korkeampi. Palkkataso on Suomea korkeampi esimerkiksi Tanskassa ja Alankomaissa. Myös Ruot-sissa palkkataso on hieman Suomea korkeampi, mutta ero on hyvin pieni. Saksassa palkat ovat jonkin verran Suomea matalampia. Hintatasoerojen huomioon ottaminen muuttaa Suomen ja Ruotsin sekä Suomen ja Saksan välisen järjestyksen.
Suomessa palkkojen hajonta on vertailumaiden joukossa neljänneksi pienintä. Vähäisintä se on Tanskassa. Baltian maat ja Saksa ovat maita, joissa korkeiden ja matalien palkkojen väliset erot ovat suuria. Näitä maita yhdistää se, että palkoista sovitaan varsin hajautetusti. Toisaalta pienen palkkahajonnan omaavissa maissa, kuten Pohjoismaissa, palkkasopimukset tehdään koordinoidusti.
Suomi on maa, jossa matalapalkkaisuutta on suhteellisen vähän. Määriteltäessä matalapalkkatyö työksi, josta saatava palkka on 2/3-osaa mediaanipalkasta, matalapalkkaisuuden rajaksi tulee Suomessa noin 1900 euroa. Heitä oli kokoaikaisista työn-tekijöistä vuonna 2011 noin 15 prosenttia. Esimerkiksi Saksassa matalapalkkatöissä oli selvästi enemmän työntekijöitä, 23 prosenttia kokoaikaisista työntekijöistä.
Sukupuolten välisessä palkkaerovertailussa Suomi kuuluu suhteellista palkkaeroa mittarina käytettäessä vertailumaiden puoliväliin. Suhteellinen palkkaero naisten ja miesten välillä vaihtelee runsaan 70 ja 90 prosentin välillä. Suomessa se oli vuonna 2011 84 prosenttia.
Suomessa korkeasti koulutettujen palkat ovat suhteellisen matalia ja vähemmän koulutusta saaneiden palkat suhteellisen korkeita. Toisaalta esimerkiksi Ruotsi on maa, jossa vähemmän koulutusta saaneiden palkat ovat korkeampia kuin Suomessa.
Palkat eivät välttämättä nouse iän myötä. Isossa-Britanniassa, Tanskassa ja Saksassa keski-ikäiset ovat parhaiten ansaitseva ikäryhmä. Suomessa ja Norjassakin vanhin ikäryhmä ansaitsee vain vähän enemmän kuin keski-ikäiset. Virossa nuoret ansaitsevat yli 54-vuotiaita enemmän.
Talouskriisivuosien erityispiirre on ollut se, että joissain maissa nimellispalkat ovat laskeneet. Selvintä lasku on ollut Kreikassa, mutta keskimääräinen palkkataso on laskenut myös Espanjassa, Portugalissa ja Irlannissa.
Tutkimuksessa tarkastellaan, miten hyvin sosiaaliturvan tulosidonnaisuutta vähentävät toimenpiteet parantavat työn vastaanottamisen kannustimia. Laskemme JUTTA-mikrosimulaatiomallin avulla myös, millaisia vaikutuksia sosiaaliturvan muutoksilla on valtiontalouteen ja tulonjakoon. Tarkastelemamme kannustinpaketti kohentaa pienituloisten ja erityisesti yksinhuoltajien, eli niiden jotka tyypillisesti ovat pahimmissa työttömyysloukuissa, saamaa nettotulohyötyä heidän työllistyessään. Lisäksi vertaamme kannustinpaketin vaikutuksia yleiseen työtuloverojen alennukseen ja sosiaaliturvan perustasoa nostavaan köyhyyspakettiin. Annamme myös suuntaa-antavia arvioita toimenpiteiden työllisyysvaikutuksista.
Palkansaajien tutkimuslaitoksen talousennusteen mukaan Suomi vajoaa jyrkästi taantumaan. Kokonaistuotanto supistuu tänä vuonna 3,7 prosenttia ja ensi vuonnakin vajaan prosentin. Suurin yksittäinen syy tuotannon laskuun on viennin määrän väheneminen liki 10 prosentilla tänä vuonna, mutta myös yksityisten investointien noin 10 prosentin putoaminen on merkittävä. Ensi vuonna vienti ja investoinnit supistuvat edelleen jonkin verran. Yksityinen kulutus polkee lähes paikallaan, ja hallituksen elvytystoimet jäävät tehottomiksi. Tänä vuonna työttömyysaste nousee 7,4 prosenttiin ja ensi vuonna jo 8,8 prosenttiin. Työllisyys heikkenee kahdessa vuodessa 100 000 hengellä. Kuluttajainflaatio hidastuu selvästi, noin 1,4 prosentin tasolle.
Vuoden 2003 alusta lähtien työnantajan sosiaaliturvamaksu poistettiin kokeiluluonteisesti kolmeksi vuodeksi kahdenkymmenen Pohjois-Lapin ja saaristokunnan alueella toimivilta yrityksiltä. Kokeilun tarkoituksen on selvittää työnantajamaksun poistamisen vaikutuksia työllisyyteen.
Tämä väliraportti on ensimmäinen osa kokeilun vaikutuksia arvioivasta tutkimuksesta. Raporttiin on koottu tietoja kokeilualueen yritysten työllisyyskehityksestä kokeilua edeltä-
vältä ajalta. Raportissa kuvataan myös sotu-maksualennuksen kohdentumista erityppisiin yrityksiin, eri alueille ja eri toimialoille. Raportin keskeisin sisältö on kuitenkin kokeilun
yksityiskohtainen arviointisuunnitelma. Sotu-maksualennuksen rajoittaminen koskemaan vain tiettyjen kuntien alueella toimivia
yrityksiä tarjoaa erinomaisen mahdollisuuden sotumaksualennuksen vaikutusten arvioimiselle.
Tässä tutkimuksessa sotu-maksuvapautuksen vaikutuksia arvioidaan vertaamalla kokeilualueiden työllisyyskehitystä elinkeinorakenteeltaan ja työttömyystilanteeltaan samanlaisten
vertailualueiden työllisyyskehitykseen. Lisäksi vertailu viedään yritys- ja toimipaikkatasolle hakemalla kullekin kokeilualueen yritykselle vertailualueelta mahdollisimman samanlainen vertailupari ja arvioidaan kokeilun vaikutuksia näitä yrityspareja vertaamalla. Tässä ensimmäisessä väliraportissa kuvataan kokeilu- ja vertailuyritysryhmien muodostaminen. Tarkoituksena on valita vertailuparit etukäteen, ennen kuin kokeilun vaikutuksista on käytettävissä tietoja. Kokeilun arviointi perustuu näiden etukäteen valittujen yritysparien
työllisyyskehityksen vertailuun.
Suomen kokonaistuotanto kasvoi viime vuonna 5,5 prosenttia. Kasvuluku oli poikkeuksellisen korkea huolimatta siitä, että toissa vuoden paperialan työseisaus selittää siitä lähes prosenttiyksikön. Hyvästä suhdanteesta kertoo myös se, että työllisten määrä kasvoi viime vuonna 42 000 henkilöllä edellisvuodesta ja että työttömyysaste aleni 0,7 prosenttiyksikköä keskimäärin 7,7 prosenttiin. Suotuisaa taloudellista kehitystä selittää finanssipolitiikan keventäminen sekä maailmantalouden ja Suomen lähimarkkinoiden hyvä suhdannetilanne. Suurin yllätys suhteessa konsensusennusteisiin oli Suomen ja Euroopan kasvunäkymien säilyminen kohtuullisen hyvinä huolimatta USA:n talouskasvun selvästä hidastumisesta. Palkansaajien tutkimuslaitos arvioi, että suhdannetilanne pysyy jatkossakin verraten hyvänä. Tämän mukaan Suomen kokonaistuotanto kasvaa tänä vuonna 3,5 prosenttia ja ensi vuonna 3,2 prosenttia.
Tutkimuksessa tarkastellaan työehtosopimuksissa määräytyvien alimpien taulukkopalkkojen vaikutuksia palkkajakaumaan ja työllisyyteen vähittäiskaupan alalla. Aineistona käytetään EK:n yksityisten palvelualojen palkka-aineistoa vuosilta 1990–2005. Tähän aineistoon on liitetty työehtosopimuksiin perustuvat kaupan alan vähimmäispalkat. Tutkimuksessa käytetään hyväksi erityisesti niitä poikkeuksia, joita vähimmäispalkkoihin sovittiin työmarkkinaosapuolten kesken 1990-luvun puolivälissä. Vuosina 1993–1995 oli mahdollista maksaa työehtosopimuksessa sovittua taulukkopalkkaa matalampaa palkkaa alle 25-vuotiaille nuorille. Tulosten perusteella nuoria koskevilla poikkeuksilla ei ollut vaikutuksia työllisyyteen, vaikka niillä olikin jonkin verran vaikutuksia todellisuudessa maksettuihin palkkoihin erityisesti palkkajakauman alapäässä.
This paper explores the potential role of adverse working conditions in the determination of workers’ sickness absences. Our data contain detailed information on the prevalence of job disamenities at the workplace from a representative sample of Finnish workers. The results from reduced-form models reveal that workers facing adverse working conditions tend to have a greater number of sickness absences. In addition, reduced-form models clearly show that regional labour market conditions are an important determinant of sickness absences. Hence, sickness absences are more common in regions of low unemployment. Recursive models suggest that the prevalence of harms at the workplace is associated with job dissatisfaction and dissatisfaction with workers’ sickness absences.
This document presents a decomposition method for analyzing changes in a country or industry's labor share over time. The method distinguishes between two factors influencing labor share changes: 1) Changes within individual continuing plants from period to period; and 2) Microstructural changes in the industry/country due to some plants gaining market share while others lose market share. The document applies this decomposition method to longitudinal plant-level data from Finland's manufacturing sector over 30 years to examine how globalization has impacted labor shares through its effects on productivity and wages at the plant level.
We examine the effects of establishment- and industry-level labor market turnover on employees’ well-being. The linked employer-employee panel data contain both survey information on employees’ subjective well-being and comprehensive register-based information on job and worker flows. Labor market turbulence decreases well-being as experienced job satisfaction and satisfaction with job security are negatively related to the previous year’s flows. We test for the existence of compensating wage differentials by explaining wages and job satisfaction with average uncertainties, measured by an indicator for a high moving average of past excessive turnover (churning) rate. The results are consistent with compensating wage differentials, since high uncertainty increases real wages, but has no effect on job satisfaction.
This paper analyses the employment effects of mergers and acquisitions (M&As) by using matched establishment-level data from Finland over the period 1989–2003. The data covers all sectors. We compare the employment effects of cross-border M&As with the effects arising from two different types of domestic M&As and internal restructurings. The results reveal that cross-border M&As lead to downsizing in manufacturing employment. The effects of cross-border M&As on employment in nonmanufacturing are much weaker. Changes in ownership associated with domestic M&As and internal restructurings also typically cause employment losses, but they exhibit an interesting sectoral variation.
Ikääntyneiden työntekijöiden irtisanomissuoja on Ruotsissa poikkeuksellisen vahva, sillä yritykseen viimeksi tulleet työntekijät täytyy irtisanoa ensimmäiseksi. Suomessa ikääntyneiden työsuhdeturvaa koskevat määräykset ovat oleellisesti löyhempiä. Tutkimuksessa Ruotsin ja Suomen irtisanomissuojaa koskevan eron vaikutuksia tarkastellaan muodostamalla ylikansallinen työntekijä- ja työnantaja-aineisto. Se perustuu Suomen ja Ruotsin työnantajajärjestöjen kokoamien palkkarekisteriaineistojen yhdistämiseen vuosina 2000–2011. Ruotsissa ja Suomessa toimivia saman emoyrityksen yksiköitä käsitellään yhtenä yrityksenä. Tulokset osoittavat, että Suomessa ikääntyneet työntekijät irtisanotaan taloudellisten vaikeuksien myötä herkemmin kuin Ruotsissa. Tutkimuksessa tarkastellaan myös irtisanomisjärjestystä koskevien lausekkeiden vaikutuksia työntekijöiden palkkoihin. Pisimpään yrityksessä työskennelleet saavat suuremman palkkapreemion Ruotsissa. Mahdollinen selitys tälle ilmiölle on irtisanomisjärjestystä koskevien säännösten aikaansaama parempi työsuhdeturva ja tästä seuraava neuvotteluvoiman kasvu.
unemployment in spain, causes and remedies .pptxMgirehBryan
Spain is faced with high unemployment rates since the 1980s. the country consistently ranks among the highest within the European Union with unemployment rate of 11.6% in the third quarter of 2023, which translates up to 2.77 million individuals , according to Statista. the uemployment rate average of the EU is 6.4%. The World bank indicates that the youth unemployment rate is at a concerning 27%. unemployment rates for individuals under 25 years old were above 50% in 2012, 2013, and 2014 but there has been significant decreases in this rates since 2017 where it was determined to be at around 35% (Verd et al., 2019). This prolonged period of elevated youth unemployment has had profound socio-economic repercussions, affecting not only the individuals directly impacted but also the broader economy and society as a whole.
socio-demographic characteristics and career trajectories contributes to this high unemployment rates in spain.
This study investigates the role of adverse working conditions in the determination of individual wages and overall job satisfaction in the Finnish labour market. The potential influence of adverse working conditions on self-reported fairness of pay at the workplace is considered as an alternative, indirect measure of job satisfaction. The results show that working conditions have a very minor role in the determination of individual wages in the Finnish labour market. In contrast, adverse working conditions substantially increase the level of job dissatisfaction and the perception of unfairness of pay at the workplace
The purpose of the paper is to assess the validity of two interpretations which have been used in the description of the relationship between employment growth and economic activity in Finland during the 1990s. According to the New Era view the Finnish economy has moved into a new era which, as a result of a faster-than-before rate of labour productivity growth, is characterized by "jobless growth". According to the Cyclical Rebound view no change in the rate of trend productivity growth has taken place. The productivity-led growth, which after the very deep depression characterized the recovery of the economy, only reflected a normal cyclical rebound. The main result of my investigation is as follows. Neither the New Era view nor the Cyclical Rebound view provides a telling interpretation about the developments of productivity and the relationship between output and employment growth in the 1990s. Characterizing the years of the recovery as reflecting a New Era which is associated with an increase in the rate of longrun productivity growth is misleading, because that kind of change has not taken place. On the other hand, the movements of productivity are hard to reconcile with the Cyclical Rebound view because the years from 1992 to1994, especially, were exceptional. During the period movements in productivity were not consistent with a pro-cyclical pattern, and, what is important, the productivity trend shifted upwards. However, the shift was not associated with an acceleration in the rate of trend productivity growth. The upward shift was caused by a sequence of positive technology shocks, which were identified by using a structural VAR model. The identifying restriction was rationalized by utilizing a new Keynesian dynamic general equilibrium model. The positive technology shocks which dominated the developments of aggregate productivity during the period from 1992 to 1994 mainly reflect micro-structural changes like business restructuring and labour reallocation in manufacturing
Fluctuations of employment across age and gender - Enrico Zaninotto, Roberto ...OECD CFE
The document summarizes two studies examining how employment fluctuations affect different age and gender groups in Italy. Study 1 uses provincial data to analyze how employment levels respond differently across age groups during economic upturns and downturns. Preliminary results suggest younger and prime-age workers see larger employment declines during downturns while older groups are more stable. Study 2 will analyze individual work transitions and how workforce composition changes during the business cycle may impact productivity. The research aims to understand how Italy's labor market regulations have influenced these patterns.
The aim of this paper is to dicriminate between alternative compensation policies in Finnish industries using linked employer-employee data covering the period 1987–1992. Our results suggest that earnings equations should have a firm effect with a firm-specific intercept and seniority effect. There is also a strong association of firm-level compensation to education, in contrast to weak correlation to other human capital components such as general experience. Experience payments from initial tenure, and also from general experience, are increasing with educational level. We also examine the efficiency of the compensation policies on the basis of their impact on labor and total factor productivity. We find seniority compensations in general efficient. This holds particularly for the middle educated.
Employment protection legislation's effect on labor market performanceTanuj Poddar
This document analyzes the effects of employment protection legislation (EPL) on labour market outcomes in transition and Western countries. It explores both the potential benefits and costs of strict EPL. While EPL may provide stability and security, it can also reduce flexibility and increase unemployment. The document reviews mixed empirical evidence from Western countries and develops new indicators to analyze EPL impacts in transition countries like Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Poland, Estonia, and Russia.
American Journal of Multidisciplinary Research and Development is indexed, refereed and peer-reviewed journal, which is designed to publish research articles.
- The National Minimum Wage was introduced in 1999 and has since been progressively increased, raising the wages of over 1 million low-paid workers by around 15% on average. While it was initially feared that the minimum wage would significantly reduce employment, research has found little to no evidence of job losses, though some reduction in hours worked.
- The minimum wage has primarily benefited women, who make up a higher proportion of low-paid workers. However, there is no evidence the minimum wage has caused "spillover" effects of higher wages among better paid workers.
- While the minimum wage has reduced wage inequality slightly among the lowest paid workers, it has been a limited tool for reducing overall wage inequality or
Using Finnish data this paper examines to what extent the share of all nurses in unemployment, health care employment and being out of the labour market after the exam of a cohort have affected the long-run outcomes of the cohort. The shares are calculated for all cohorts and years and standardised in each year by dividing the cohort specific rate with the average rate for all nurses. These standardised variables are used as dependent variables. The long-term effects are significant at least for the unemployment and the depression have according to the estimates raised the long-run unemployment by more than 2 percentage points for the nurses graduating then. For the employment in the health care industry the effects may be even larger but the estimates are more uncertain.
In this study, we scrutinize the effect of labour taxation on employment and growth. We also analyze the effect of other fiscal policy instruments, e.g. the effect of public spending. In this context, our special interest is in the fiscal policy simulations that are neutralized for the government budget. The analysis will be performed with a macroeconomic model (EMMA) developed at the Labour Institute for Economic Research. The study finds that a one percentage point decrease in the income tax rate which is financed by increasing government debt improves GDP by 0.58 and employment by 0.25 per cent in the long run. Also, a one percentage point decrease in the income tax rate which is neutralized for the government budget by reducing public purchases produces a long-run increase in GDP and employment of a similar magnitude, even though its short-run effect on both variables is negative.
Structural unemployment in Latvia risks becoming entrenched due to skills and geographical mismatches between labor supply and demand. This structural unemployment does not disappear on its own even during economic growth. Timely policy action is needed to minimize unemployment and its substantial costs, which include increased emigration and lower potential growth. Adequate policy measures could include active labor market policies to support labor demand through public employment services, training schemes, and employment subsidies in order to reduce both cyclical and structural unemployment.
An international comparison suggests that the share of private services in terms of output and employment is rather low in Finland. This feature raises several interesting questions.
What explains this particular feature of the Finnish production structure? How has the great depression of the early 1990s influenced the structure of private services in Finland? What kind of policy measures could be implemented in order to increase the share of private services from a long-run perspective? Finnish service employment also contains a number of other interesting particularities in an international comparison.
Within a corporatist framework, these include a rather large public sector employer, high
female participation rate, but on the other hand a low share of part-time work.
There is a solid foundation upon which to argue that the labour market is the most important market of modern economies (see, for example, Elliott 1991). The reason for this arises
from the well-known fact that, by a wide margin, most individuals derive their current income flow from selling their labour services. This applies to the Finnish labour markets,
which have gained growing interest during the 1990s.
The prominent reason for the interest has been the empirical feature that the unemployment rate soared during the so-called great slump of the early 1990s. Since then, according to a number of commentators on public affairs, unemployment has been the most important economic and social problem
in Finland. In this respect, the situation is nowadays much the same across the whole of the European labour markets.
As a consequence of this development of the 1990s, the
issues associated with the Finnish labour markets constitute a topical research theme.
This document summarizes a study that explores the relationship between adverse working conditions, job satisfaction, and workers' intentions to quit their jobs using data from Finland. The study finds that workers currently facing adverse working conditions have greater intentions to switch jobs and are more willing to stop working completely. They also search for new jobs more frequently. There is evidence that adverse working conditions increase job dissatisfaction and it is this job dissatisfaction that drives workers' intentions to quit and intensifies actual job searching. The study uses a unique data set that includes detailed information on working conditions reported by individual workers, in addition to measures of job satisfaction and intentions to quit.
Similar to Who Bear the Burden of Wage Cuts? Evidence from Finland during the 1990s (20)
Talous & Yhteiskunta -lehden numero 4/2019 sisältää artikkeleita ja haastattelun, jotka kertovat alueellista keskittymistä käsitelleistä tutkimuksista. Suomen seitsemän suurimman kaupunkiseudun väestö kasvaa nopeimmin, kun taas pienempien kaupunkien ja maaseudun väestöosuus supistuu. Muutos on kuitenkin verrattain hidasta, ja sille on myös vastavoimia.
Talous & Yhteiskunta -lehden numeron 3/2019 teemana on työ ja terveys. Artikkeleissa tarkastellaan Suomen terveydenhuoltojärjestelmän toimivuutta ja pohditaan mitä voitaisiin oppia Ruotsissa jo tehdyistä terveydenhuollon uudistuksista. Muissa artikkeleissa käsitellään terveyskäyttäytymisen ja työmarkkinamenestyksen yhteyttä, työttömien aktivointia, työikäisten eritasoisia terveyspalveluja, työaikajoustojen vaikutusta terveyteen sekä informaatioteknologian ja tekoälyn käyttöä mielenterveyspalvelujen tukena. Haastateltavana on THL:n tutkimusprofessori Unto Häkkinen. Hänen mielestään sote-uudistus on tehtävä, vaikka se vaatiikin vielä monen yksityiskohdan ratkaisemista.
Opiskelijavalinta ylioppilaskirjoitusten nykyarvosanojen perusteella ei ole täysin perusteltua, todetaan Aalto-ylipiston ja Palkansaajien tutkimuslaitoksen uudessa tutkimuksessa. Ylioppilaskirjoitusten arvosanoilla on pitkän ajan vaikutuksia. Hienojakoisempi arvosteluasteikko tekisi opiskelijavalinnasta nykyistä reilumman.
Esimerkkiperhelaskelmissa tarkastellaan seitsemää kotitaloutta. Laskelmat kuvaavat ansiotulojen, tulonsiirtojen sekä verojen ja veronluonteisten maksujen kehityksen vaikutusta perheiden ostovoimaan. Perheille lasketaan Tilastokeskuksen tietoihin perustuvat perhekohtaiset kulutuskorit, jotka mahdollistavat perhekohtaisten inflaatiovauhtien ja reaalitulokehitysten arvioinnin. Ensi vuonna eläkeläispariskunnan ostovoima kasvaa eniten ja työttömien vähiten. Esimerkkiperhelaskelmia on tehty Palkansaajien tutkimuslaitoksella vuodesta 2009 lähtien.
Palkansaajien tutkimuslaitos ennustaa Suomen talouskasvuksi tänä vuonna 1,3 prosenttia ja ensi vuonna 1,1 prosenttia. Kasvua hidastaa eniten yksityisen kulutuksen kasvun hidastuminen. Toisaalta vienti kasvaa tänä vuonna hieman ennakoitua nopeammin, neljä prosenttia, ja ensi vuonnakin vielä kaksi prosenttia. Tuotannollisten investointien kasvu jatkuu maltillisena, mutta rakentamisen vähentyminen kääntää yksityiset investoinnit kokonaisuutena pieneen laskuun ensi vuonna. Hallituksen vuoteen 2023 mennessä tavoittelemien 75 prosentin työllisyysasteen ja julkisen talouden tasapainon toteutumista on vaikea arvioida, koska nämä tavoitteet on määritelty rakenteellisina ja niiden eri arviointimenetelmät saattavat tuottaa hyvin erilaisia tuloksia.
Suomen palkkataso oli 2015 ylempää eurooppalaista keskitasoa. Suomen suhteellinen asema ei ole juurikaan muuttunut 2010-luvun alun tilanteesta. Hintatason huomioiminen kuitenkin heikentää asemaamme palkkavertailussa. Palkkaerot meillä olivat vertailumaiden pienimpiä ja pysyivät melko samalla tasolla koko tarkastelujakson 2007–2015 ajan. EU-maissa havaittiin erisuuntaista kehitystä palkkaeroissa. Suurin osa palkkojen kokonaisvaihteluista selittyi taustaryhmien sisäisillä palkkaeroilla.
Suomessa toteutettiin vuonna 2005 laaja eläkeuudistus, jossa vanhuuseläkkeen alaikärajaa laskettiin. Tutkimuksessa havaitaan, että ikärajan lasku aikaisti eläkkeelle jäämistä. Kun alaraja laskettiin 65:stä 63:een, myös yleinen eläköitymisikä laski. Taloudellisten kannustimien muutosten vaikutukset eläköitymiseen jäivät paljon heikommiksi alaikärajan muuttamiseen verrattuna. Eläköitymisikään voidaan siis vaikuttaa tehokkaasti ja vähäisin kustannuksin lakisääteistä eläkeikää muuttamalla.
Talous & Yhteiskunta -lehden numeron 2/2019 artikkelit ja haastattelu kertovat tutkimuksista, joita on tehty Suomen Akatemian strategisen tutkimuksen neuvoston hankkeessa "Osaavat työntekijät - menestyvät työmarkkinat". Keskeinen kysymys on, miten sopeudutaan teknologisen kehityksen mukanaan tuomaan työn murrokseen.
Tutkimuksessa tarkastellaan ammattirakenteiden polarisaatiota sekä sitä, että mihin supistuvissa ja rutiininomaisissa ammateissa olevat työntekijät päätyvät hyödyntämällä kokonaisaineistoa vuosille 1970-2014. Ammattirakenteiden polarisaatio on jatkunut Suomessa jo vuosikymmeniä. Ammattirakennemuutoksen kehityskulku on pääosin tapahtunut siten, että keskitason tuotanto- ja toimistotyöntekijät ovat nousseet urapolkuja pitkin asiantuntijatöihin. Viimeaikaista palveluammattien osuutta on puolestaan kasvattanut se, että nuoret siirtyvät työmarkkinoille palvelutöihin. Rutiininomaisia ja kognitiivisia taitoja vaativien ammattien työntekijöillä on kuitenkin suurempi todennäköisyys nousta korkeammille palkkaluokille rutiininomaista ja fyysistä työtä tekeviin työntekijöihin verrattuna. Rutiininomaista ja fyysistä työtä tekevät tippuvat puolestaan suuremmalla todennäköisyydellä matalapalkka-aloille, ja heidän ansiotason kehitys on myös heikompaa.
Palkansaajien tutkimuslaitos on alentanut Suomen talouskasvun ennustettaan kuluvalle vuodelle viimesyksyisestä 2,3 prosentista 1,4 prosenttiin. Kansainvälisen talouden näkymien epävarmuus hidastaa Suomen talouskasvua etenkin kuluvana vuonna. Jos pahimmat uhkakuvat jäävät toteutumatta, kasvu piristyy ensi vuonna hivenen 1,5 prosenttiin. Viime vuonna pysähtynyt viennin kasvu elpyy, ja myös yksityisen kulutuksen kasvu tukee talouskasvua. Suomi on sopeutunut ammattirakenteiden murrokseen yleisesti ottaen hyvin, mutta etenkin perusasteen koulutuksen varassa olevien varttuneiden työntekijöiden työllistämiseen voi olla vaikea löytää työkaluja.
The Labour Institute for Economic Research has lowered its forecast of Finland’s economic growth for the current year from last autumn’s 2.4 per cent to 1.4 per cent. Uncertainty in the international economic outlook will slow Finland’s economic growth, particularly this year. If the worst threats do not materialise, growth will pick up slightly next year to 1.5 per cent. Export growth, which came to a halt last year, will recover and growth in private consumption growth will also provide support to economic growth. In general, Finland has adjusted well to occupational restructuring, but it may be difficult to find means to employ older workers who only have basic education.
Palkansaajien tutkimuslaitos on alentanut Suomen talouskasvun ennustettaan kuluvalle vuodelle vii-mesyksyisestä 2,3 prosentista 1,4 prosenttiin. Kansainvälisen talouden näkymien epävarmuus hidastaa Suomen talouskasvua etenkin kuluvana vuonna. Jos pahimmat uhkakuvat jäävät toteutumatta, kasvu piristyy ensi vuonna hivenen 1,5 prosenttiin. Viime vuonna pysähtynyt viennin kasvu elpyy, ja myös yksityisen kulutuksen kasvu tukee talouskasvua. Suomi on sopeutunut ammattirakenteiden murrokseen yleisesti ottaen hyvin, mutta etenkin perusasteen koulutuksen varassa olevien varttuneiden työntekijöiden työllistämiseen voi olla vaikea löytää työkaluja.
Tämä PT Policy Brief tuo esiin havaintoja Suomen tuloerojen kehityksestä 1990-luvun puolivälin jälkeen. Tällä ajanjaksolla tuloerot ovat kasvaneet. Aluksi kasvu oli hyvin nopeaa, kunnes kehitys tasaantui finanssikriisin myötä. Tämä näkyy tarkasteltaessa kehitystä viiden vuoden ajalta lasketuissa keskituloissa. Taloudessa on tuloliikkuvuutta, ts. tulot vaihtelevat vuodesta toiseen. Havaitsemme, että liikkuvuus tuloportaikossa on vähentynyt. Samalla kun tuloerot ovat kääntyneet kasvuun, on tuloverotuksen progressiivisuus alentunut. Valtion tuloveron alennusten ohella tähän on erityisesti tulojakauman huipulla vaikuttanut pääomatulojen voimakas kasvu.
Julkisen budjetin sopeuttamistoimia toteutetaan usein etuuksien indeksileikkauksina tai tuloverojen korotuksina. Näillä toimenpiteillä on tulonjako- ja työllisyysvaikutuksia. Tämä PT Policy Brief esittää SISU-mallilla lasketut vaikutukset käytettävissä oleviin tuloihin tuloluokittain, jos valtion tuloveroasteikkoa korotettaisiin 0,4 prosenttiyksiköllä tai jos kansaneläkeindeksiä leikattaisiin. Molemmissa toimenpiteissä budjetti vahvistuisi 180 miljoonalla eurolla mutta tulonjakovaikutukset ovat huomattavan erilaiset. Oheisen kuvion mukaisesti indeksileikkaukset kohdistuvat voimakkaasti alempiin tulonsaajakymmenyksiin, kun taas tuloveron korotukset kohdistuvat ylempiin kymmenyksiin. Kun huomioidaan muutosten aiheuttamat työllisyysvaikutukset, kokonaiskuva muuttuu vain hieman.
Makeisvero otettiin käyttöön makeisille ja jäätelölle vuoden 2011 alusta. Virallinen perustelu oli kerätä verotuloja, mutta poliittisessa keskustelussa selvä tavoite oli ohjata kulutusta terveellisempään suuntaan. Makeisvero nosti selvästi makeisten kuluttajahintoja, mutta se ei vaikuttanut makeisten kysyntään. Toisaalta vuonna 2014 virvoitusjuomavero nousi sokerillisille juomille, mutta sokerittomat juomat jäivät alemmalle verotasolle. Tämä muutos alensi sokerillisten juomien kulutusta ja ohjasi kulutusta sokerittomiin juomiin. Onnistunut terveellisiin tuotteisiin ohjailu näyttääkin vaativan riittävän läheisen terveellisempien tuotteiden ryhmän olemassaolon.
Talous & Yhteiskunta-lehden "Suuren vaalinumeron" 1/2019 jutut käsittelevät aiheita, jotka voivat nousta esille kevään vaalikeskusteluissa. Pääpaino on ilmastonmuutoksessa: haastateltavana on Maailman ilmatieteen järjestön pääsihteeri Petteri Taalas, ja kahdessa eri artikkelissa pohditaan metsien hiilinielujen ja yhdyskuntarakenteen merkitystä pyrittäessä hillitsemään ilmaston lämpenemistä. Muut artikkelit käsittelevät tuloerojen kasvua, sotea, eläkkeiden riittävyyttä, maahanmuuttajien työllistymistä, EMUn uudistamista, eurooppalaista palkkavertailua ja kestävyysvajeen sopimattomuutta talouspolitiikan suunnitteluun.
Raportissa tehdään laskelmia korkeakouluopiskelijoille suunnatun opintotuen tulorajojen muutosten vaikutuksista. Opintotuen tulorajojen tavoite on, että suurituloisille opiskelijoille ei makseta opintotukea. Samalla nykyiset tulorajat kuitenkin estävät opiskelijoita tienaamasta niin paljon kuin he haluaisivat. Laskelmissa hyödynnetään simulaatiomallia, jonka avulla voidaan arvioida miten opiskelijoiden tulojakauma muuttuisi eri vaihtoehtoisissa opintotuen tulorajojen muutoksissa. Tulosten mukaan nykyisiä tulorajaoja voisi nostaa esimerkiksi 50 prosentilla, jolloin yhdeksän kuukauden ajan opintotukea nostavan opiskelijan vuosituloraja olisi 18 000 euroa nykyisen noin 12 000 euron sijaan. Laskelmien mukaan tällöin päästäisiin opintotuen nykyisten tulorajojen haitallisista tulovaikutuksista laajasti ottaen eroon, koska vain harva opiskelija tienaisi tätä tulorajaa enempää. Ottaen huomioon verotulot ja tulonsiirrot tämä vaihtoehto lisäisi julkisyhteisöjen nettotuloja arviolta 5,9 miljoonaa euroa vuodessa.
Tässä tutkimuksessa tutkitaan diskreettien valintajoukkojen vaikutusta palkansaajien työn tarjonnan reagoimiseen tuloveroihin. Artikkelin empiirisessä osiossa hyödynnetään opintotuen tulorajojen aiheuttamaa tuloveroissa tapahtuvaa äkillistä nousua, ja reformia, jossa tulorajoja nostettiin. Tulosten mukaan vuoden 2008 reformi, jossa tulorajaa nostettiin 9 opintotukikuukautta nostaneille 9000 eurosta 12000 euroon, aiheutti merkittäviä muutoksia opiskelijoiden tulojakaumassa. Tulojakauma siirtyi korkeammalle tasolle lähtien noin 2000 euron tuloista. Koska opiskelijoiden verojärjestelmässä ei tapahtunut muutoksia näin alhaisella tasolla vuoden 2008 reformissa, eivät työn taloustieteen normaalit mallit pysty selittämään tätä siirtymää. Artikkelissa esitetään empiirisiä lisätuloksia, teoreettisia argumentteja ja simulaatiomalli, jotka kaikki viittaavat siihen, että tuloksen pystyy selittämään diskreettien valintajoukkojen mallilla. Lisäksi artikkelissa esitetään, että verotuksen hyvinvointitappiot voivat olla suuremmat kuin empiirisesti estimoidut, jos valintajoukot ovat diskreettejä, mutta niiden ajatellaan olevan jatkuvia.
Talous & Yhteiskunta -lehden uuteen numeroon sisältyy artikkeleita veropohjasta ja -vajeesta, liikenteen veroista, naisista tulojakauman huipulla, työllisyyden kasvusta, mikrosimulaatiomalleista ja digitalisaatiosta. Lehdessä on myös Helsingin yliopiston professori Uskali Mäen haastattelu, jossa käsitellään tieteenfilosofista näkökulmaa taloustieteeseen.
Tutkimuksessa rakennettiin uusia makrotaloudellisia malleja PT:n ennustetyötä varten. Malleilla tehtiin ennusteita vuosille 2017 ja 2018. Mallien BKT-ennuste vuodelle 2017 on 3,1 prosenttia (vrt. toteutunut 2,8 prosenttia) ja vuodelle 2018 1,8 prosenttia (vrt. PT:n 11.9 ennuste 2,7 prosenttia).
Bharat Mata - History of Indian culture.pdfBharat Mata
Bharat Mata Channel is an initiative towards keeping the culture of this country alive. Our effort is to spread the knowledge of Indian history, culture, religion and Vedas to the masses.
karnataka housing board schemes . all schemesnarinav14
The Karnataka government, along with the central government’s Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY), offers various housing schemes to cater to the diverse needs of citizens across the state. This article provides a comprehensive overview of the major housing schemes available in the Karnataka housing board for both urban and rural areas in 2024.
AHMR is an interdisciplinary peer-reviewed online journal created to encourage and facilitate the study of all aspects (socio-economic, political, legislative and developmental) of Human Mobility in Africa. Through the publication of original research, policy discussions and evidence research papers AHMR provides a comprehensive forum devoted exclusively to the analysis of contemporaneous trends, migration patterns and some of the most important migration-related issues.
Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
https://www.youtube.com/@jenniferschaus/videos
Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
https://www.youtube.com/@jenniferschaus/videos
Indira awas yojana housing scheme renamed as PMAYnarinav14
Indira Awas Yojana (IAY) played a significant role in addressing rural housing needs in India. It emerged as a comprehensive program for affordable housing solutions in rural areas, predating the government’s broader focus on mass housing initiatives.
UN WOD 2024 will take us on a journey of discovery through the ocean's vastness, tapping into the wisdom and expertise of global policy-makers, scientists, managers, thought leaders, and artists to awaken new depths of understanding, compassion, collaboration and commitment for the ocean and all it sustains. The program will expand our perspectives and appreciation for our blue planet, build new foundations for our relationship to the ocean, and ignite a wave of action toward necessary change.
The Antyodaya Saral Haryana Portal is a pioneering initiative by the Government of Haryana aimed at providing citizens with seamless access to a wide range of government services
Combined Illegal, Unregulated and Unreported (IUU) Vessel List.Christina Parmionova
The best available, up-to-date information on all fishing and related vessels that appear on the illegal, unregulated, and unreported (IUU) fishing vessel lists published by Regional Fisheries Management Organisations (RFMOs) and related organisations. The aim of the site is to improve the effectiveness of the original IUU lists as a tool for a wide variety of stakeholders to better understand and combat illegal fishing and broader fisheries crime.
To date, the following regional organisations maintain or share lists of vessels that have been found to carry out or support IUU fishing within their own or adjacent convention areas and/or species of competence:
Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR)
Commission for the Conservation of Southern Bluefin Tuna (CCSBT)
General Fisheries Commission for the Mediterranean (GFCM)
Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission (IATTC)
International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas (ICCAT)
Indian Ocean Tuna Commission (IOTC)
Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organisation (NAFO)
North East Atlantic Fisheries Commission (NEAFC)
North Pacific Fisheries Commission (NPFC)
South East Atlantic Fisheries Organisation (SEAFO)
South Pacific Regional Fisheries Management Organisation (SPRFMO)
Southern Indian Ocean Fisheries Agreement (SIOFA)
Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission (WCPFC)
The Combined IUU Fishing Vessel List merges all these sources into one list that provides a single reference point to identify whether a vessel is currently IUU listed. Vessels that have been IUU listed in the past and subsequently delisted (for example because of a change in ownership, or because the vessel is no longer in service) are also retained on the site, so that the site contains a full historic record of IUU listed fishing vessels.
Unlike the IUU lists published on individual RFMO websites, which may update vessel details infrequently or not at all, the Combined IUU Fishing Vessel List is kept up to date with the best available information regarding changes to vessel identity, flag state, ownership, location, and operations.
2. PALKANSAAJIEN TUTKIMUSLAITOS • TYÖPAPEREITA
LABOUR INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH • DISCUSSION PAPERS
* This study is part of two projects financed by The Finnish Work Environment Fund
(Työsuojelurahasto). The projects are i) ”Palkkajäykkyys ja inflaation työmarkkinavaikutukset”
(Wage rigidity and labour market impacts of inflation) and ii) ”Työmarkkinoiden pelisäännöt:
työelämän suhteet, sopimustoiminta ja tulopolitiikka 2000-luvulla” (Labour market rules:
Industrial relations, collective bargaining and income policy in the 21st century). We are
grateful to Reija Lilja, Jukka Pekkarinen, Kenneth Snellman and Roope Uusitalo for
comments. The usual disclaimer applies.
** Labour Institute for Economic Research, Pitkänsillanranta 3A, 00530 Helsinki, Finland.
E-mail: petri.bockerman@labour.fi
*** University of Tampere, E-mail: seppo.laaksonen@stat.fi
**** University of Tampere, E-mail: jari.vainiomaki@uta.fi
Helsinki 2003
191
WHO BEAR THE
BURDEN OF
WAGE CUTS?
EVIDENCE FROM
FINLAND DURING
THE 1990s*
Petri Böckerman**
Seppo Laaksonen***
Jari Vainiomäki****
4. 3
ABSTRACT
This paper focuses on the share and incidence of nominal and real wages cuts in the Finnish
private sector. It complements other analyses of downward wage rigidities especially by looking
for individual and employer characteristics that might explain the likelihood of observing an
individual’s wage cut. The examinations are based on Probit models that include individual
characteristics, employer characteristics, and the form of remuneration as explanatory variables.
We find relatively few individual or employer characteristics that have a strong and common
influence on the likelihood of wage decline across the different segments of labour markets.
However, the full-time workers have had a lower likelihood of nominal and real wage declines
during the 1990s compared with part-time workers. Declines in wages have also been more
common in small plants/firms. In addition, nominal wage declines have been more transitory by
their nature within the segments of the Finnish labour markets in which they are more common.
Overall, the frequency of nominal wage declines has been fairly low for manufacturing non-
manuals and service sector workers but somewhat higher for manual workers in manufacturing.
However, nominal wage moderation together with a positive inflation rate produced real wage
cuts for a large proportion of employees during the worst recession years of the early 1990s.
JEL Classification: J31
Key words: micro-level, wages, adjustment
5. 4
TIIVISTELMÄ
Tutkimuksessa tarkastellaan palkkojen sopeutumista (sekä negatiivisten palkanmuutosten
osuutta että niiden kohtaantoa) Suomessa käyttäen yksilötason aineistoja, jotka kattavat
pääpiirteissään talouden yksityisen sektorin. Tutkimus täydentää palkkajäykkyyttä kuvaa-via
estimaatteja keskittymällä tekijöihin, joilla on vaikutusta palkanalennuksen todennä-köisyyteen
yksilötasolla. Tutkimus perustuu Probit-malleihin, joissa palkanalennuksen todennäköisyyttä
selitetään yksilön ominaisuuksilla (kuten ikä, työkokemus, työtunnit, asuinalue ja sukupuoli),
työnantajan piirteillä (kuten koko, naisten osuus ja toimiala) ja palkkamuodolla
(suorituspohjaisen palkan viivästetty osuus ja muutos siinä). Ainoastaan harvoilla yksilöiden ja
työnantajien ominaisuuksilla on samansuuntainen vaikutus nimellis-palkan alenemisen
todennäköisyyteen käytetyissä aineistoissa (teollisuuden tuntipalkkaiset työntekijät ja
toimihenkilöt sekä palvelualan työntekijät). Palkanalennukset ovat harvinai-sempia
kokoaikaisille. Nimellis- ja reaalipalkan alennukset ovat myös yleisempiä pienissä
yrityksissä/toimipaikoissa. Nimellispalkan alennukset ovat lisäksi olleet tilapäisempiä kes-toltaan
työmarkkinoiden lohkoilla, joissa ne ovat yleisempiä. Nimellispalkan alennukset ovat olleet
yleisimpiä tuntipalkkaisille teollisuustyöntekijöille. Teollisuuden toimihenkilöillä ja
palvelualojen työntekijöillä nimellispalkan alennukset ovat sitä vastoin olleet huomatta-vasti
harvinaisempia. Maltilliset palkankorotukset 1990-luvun alkupuolella yhdistettynä positiiviseen
inflaatioon merkitsivät sitä, että reaalipalkan alennuksia oli mahdollista to-teuttaa suurelle
osalle työntekijöistä ilman yleissopimusten kautta toteutettavia nimellis-palkkojen alennuksia.
6. 5
1. INTRODUCTION
This study considers the incidence of wage cuts across individuals. Wage changes in labour
markets without frictions for adjustment can be described by the mean change. In practice, the
mean change is not able to capture all relevant aspects in wage changes. The reason is that wage
distributions fail to be symmetric around the mean change that fluctuates over time, because
there are obstacles for wage changes. The aim of this study is to investigate the number of wage
cuts in different segments of labour markets and, in particular, to shed light on individual and
employer characteristics and the forms of remuneration that account for wage cuts. In this
respect, there may be characteristics that have a similar influence on the likelihood of wage cuts
in different segments of labour markets. In terms of the nature of wage cuts, the amount of their
persistence is an important issue for individuals. These questions can be addressed by using
micro-level data on wages.
The incidence of wage cuts in Finland during the 1990s is interesting.1
The prominent reason
for this is that the economic experience has been dramatic by any reasonable standards. Finland
suffered its worst recession of the twentieth century not in the 1930s but in the early 1990s (see,
for example, Kiander and Vartia 1996; Honkapohja and Koskela 1999; Böckerman and Kiander
2002). As a consequence of the slump, output fell by 10% in the years 1991−1993. The rate of
unemployment surged correspondingly from 3.5% to almost 20%. These indicators were much
worse than those recorded during the great depression of the 1930s. Since 1994 the economy
has recovered.
Despite the collapse in labour demand, there were no overall cuts in the aggregate nominal
wages during the great slump according to commonly used earnings indices. There was,
however, significant nominal wage moderation through the use of the instruments of the
centralized bargaining system at the same time. Nominal wages were frozen by the collective
agreements over the period 1992−1993. However, the rate of inflation was slower than
expected and there was a continuation of a small but positive wage drift. This meant that
aggregate real wages remained more or less unchanged in 1992−1994. This macroeconomic
pattern of non-adjustment can be contrasted to the micro-level dynamics of individual wages
during this turbulent decade.2
1
Vartiainen (1998) contains a description of the Finnish labour markets. Koskela and Uusitalo (2003) provides
a discussion of the Finnish unemployment problem in the European context.
2
The previous Finnish studies have usually applied aggregate data (see, for example, Pehkonen 1999). An
empirical investigation by Vartiainen (2000) that applies data on manual workers in Finnish manufacturing is
7. 6
The rest of the study is organized as follows. The second section provides brief theoretical
considerations on the incidence of wage cuts across individuals. The third section contains
information about the data. The fourth section includes a description of the heterogeneity of
individual-level wage changes by documenting the amount of negative wage changes. The fifth
section reports the estimation results. These estimations provide information about the factors
that did have an influence on the incidence of the burden of adjustment in terms of wage cuts
across individuals. The last section concludes.
2. THEORETICAL CONSIDERATIONS
Efficiency wages and fairness standards are the most prominent explanations for the lack of wage
cuts. An established version of the efficiency-wage theory states that real wage cuts should be
less likely for the categories of the labour force that are most important for the productivity of a
firm. The reason is that declines in real wages may yield outflow of these key categories of
workers and therefore hurt the productivity and the profitability of a firm (see, for example,
Yellen 1984). The mutual resistance for wage cuts by employees and employers can also arise
from the fairness standards (see, for example, Solow 1990; Fehr and Gächter 2000; Akerlof
2002; Bewley 2002). The fairness standards constitute obstacles directly to nominal wage
declines as well as real wages. Fairness standards should be looser, for instance, for young
employees, owing to a short history of repeated interactions between the worker and the firm
(see, for example, Fehr and Goette 2000). This means that employers may not feel to be
constrained by the fairness standards in order to impose wage cuts for young employees that
have not yet established their labour market positions within the firms. Another argument is
related to the stylized feature that a decline in wages increases the likelihood that a worker will
quit from the current match. However, there is less accumulated firm-specific investments for
young employees (see, for example, Holden 1984; Malcomson 1997; 1998). Declines in wages
can therefore be implemented for young employees without nullification of sunk costs associated
with these firm-specific investments.
an exception to this pattern. Kramarz (2001) provides a survey of the literature that has focused on the micro-
level adjustment of nominal wages. Agell and Lundborg (2003) provide Swedish evidence based on survey data
for the perspective that there has not been increase in wage cuts in Sweden despite the rise in the
unemployment rate during the 1990s. Christofides and Stengos (2003) investigate the factors that have an
influence on the likelihood of pay increases with Canadian individual-level wage data. However, they focus on
8. 7
These theoretical explanations are also relevant to other characteristics of individuals and firms,
like experience, gender, length of working hours and firm size. The importance of different
motives for wage rigidity may, of course, vary across labour market segments. Furthermore, there
may be other explanatory factors, such as institutional constraints, that affect our results for
wage cuts. These issues are further discussed in connection with empirical results.
3. THE DATA
The data of this study comes directly from the payroll records of the Finnish employers’
organizations, covering all employees of their member firms.3
The structure of this data is quite
similar across sectors. It provides detailed information about wages and employees’ individual
characteristics (such as age and gender). The data used here, due to its origin in the employers’
payroll records, is considered to be very accurate by its nature. This means that measurement
error should not be a great problem in this data.4
However, there are two major differences in
this data across the segments of the Finnish economy: the timing and the wage concept. The
data for manual workers in manufacturing covers the last quarter of each year. In contrast, the
data for non-manual workers in manufacturing covers one month of each year and the same
feature extends to data that covers the private service sector. In addition, the applied wage
concept differs across segments. The
macro-economic variables. They observe, among other things, that an increase in the regional unemployment
rate yields a decline in the likelihood of a wage increase for individuals.
3
The data therefore covers almost comprehensively all workers in manufacturing and services in Finland.
4
Smith (2000) provides a discussion about the measurement error in wage changes.
9. 8
“average hourly wage for regular hours” measure for manual workers in manufacturing is widely
held as the most appropriate wage measure, as it gives the average earnings per hour during
regular working time excluding separate bonuses for overtime, shift work or working conditions.
For non-manual workers in manufacturing and for the service sector workers the applied wage
concept is the “regular monthly wage”. The wage changes used in our analyses are constructed
for job-stayers, that is, only workers who have the same employer and the same occupation
during the two consecutive years are included.5
Moreover, in order to control for the variation
arising from changing working hours for non-manual manufacturing and service sector workers’
monthly wages, it is required that the “regular weekly hours” are same in both years.
4. HETEROGENEITY IN WAGE CHANGES
The descriptive statistics on wage declines is provided in Tables 1-2. There has been a great deal
of heterogeneity in the adjustment of nominal wages across individuals during the 1990s in
terms of the incidence of nominal wage decreases. In manufacturing there is evidently
substantially more indication of nominal wage rigidity for non-manual workers than for manual
workers. Thus, there have been few negative nominal wage changes for non-manual workers in
manufacturing, even during the great slump of the early 1990s (although there were somewhat
more negative wage changes after the worst recession years in 1993). This pattern is in sharp
contrast to the adjustment of nominal wages for manual workers in manufacturing during the
recession years, when the share of workers with negative wage changes was 17% in 1990−1991,
36% in 1991−1992 and 21% in 1992−1993. However, in normal times the number of negative
nominal wage changes for job-stayers is not particularly high in the Finnish case. The proportion
of negative wage changes in Table 1 (for manual workers in manufacturing) has been around
5−10% in normal business cycle conditions, which is about half of the similar proportion in the
UK (see Nickell and Quintini 2001).
5
The inclusion of movers across plants and occupations yields an increase in the dispersion of wage changes.
This feature is as expected due to the fact that there are no limitations for wage changes of job movers in the
institutional context of the Finnish labour markets. These results are available from the authors.
10. 9
Table 1. Proportion of employees that have experienced negative wage changes across
sectors of the Finnish economy during the 1990s.
Nominal wage Real Wage
Manufacturing Manufacturing Services Manufacturing Manufacturing Services
Manual
workers
Hourly pay
Non-manual
workers
Monthly pay Monthly pay
Manual
workers
Hourly pay
Non-manual
workers
Monthly pay Monthly pay
1990−1991 16.9 2.0 2.4 60.1 47.8 20.8
1991−1992 36.4 2.7 5.4 69.5 87.2 81.5
1992−1993 20.6 5.4 3.9 57.8 74.4 83.1
1993−1994 8.4 1.4 4.7 11.8 14.5 69.8
1994−1995 5.0 1.2 2.7 6.5 2.3 4.2
1995−1996 10.4 3.3 2.8 12.3 4.8 4.0
1996−1997 23.3 2.7 4.8 48.2 61.3 74.3
1997−1998 11.4 1.3 3.4 18.7 6.4 5.7
1998−1999 11.4 3.5 3.9 17.5 7.6 6.1
1999−2000 6.8 1.6 3.4 33.7 34.9 38.6
Table 2. The average wage decline for those employees that have experienced negative
wage changes across sectors of the Finnish economy during the 1990s.
Nominal wage Real Wage
Manufacturing Manufacturing Services Manufacturing Manufacturing Services
Manual
workers
Hourly pay
Non-manual
workers
Monthly pay Monthly pay
Manual
workers
Hourly pay
Non-manual
workers
Monthly pay Monthly pay
1990−1991 -5.4 -8.2 -15.4 -4.0 -2.1 -3.5
1991−1992 -3.5 -7.2 -8.6 -3.9 -2.6 -2.8
1992−1993 -3.8 -6.6 -12.0 -2.9 -2.2 -2.6
1993−1994 -5.7 -9.3 -11.8 -5.0 -1.7 -1.9
1994−1995 -5.8 -19.3 -13.5 -5.3 -11.6 -9.6
1995−1996 -5.0 -6.7 -13.4 -4.8 -5.2 -10.0
1996−1997 -2.9 -9.2 -9.7 -2.4 -1.6 -1.8
1997−1998 -4.6 -10.1 -10.7 -3.9 -3.4 -7.6
1998−1999 -4.7 -7.7 -11.2 -4.0 -4.6 -8.2
1999−2000 -5.2 -11.6 -12.8 -2.5 -1.2 -2.0
The share of nominal wage declines for job stayers in the service sector is small compared with
manual workers in manufacturing but similar to non-manual workers in manufacturing. The
share of real wage declines behaves more similarly across sectors, being very high (60−80%)
during the recession years of 1991−1993. This arises from a large number of wage increases that
lie between zero and the inflation rate. This holds in particular for the non-manual and service
sector workers, which explains the larger difference between shares of real and nominal wage
declines for these groups.
11. 10
The frequency of nominal and real wage cuts broken down by industry in each sector is
presented in Figures 1 to 3. Although there are some differences between industries, the overall
picture is that both the level and time series patterns of the shares of wage declines are quite
similar across industries (with somewhat more differences in nominal wages in the service
sector). This implies that the time series pattern of wage cuts is not related to industry specific
factors and/or changes in industry structure of employment.
12. 11
Figure 1. Share of Nominal and Real Wage Declines for Manufacturing Manual Workers.
(reqular hourly total pay)
0.2.4.60.2.4.60.2.4.60.2.4.60.2.4.6
1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000
1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000
4 5 8 19 21 22
24 27 28 30 33 34
35 43 51 52 67 68
69 72 78 81 83 84
86 87
(mean)decline
vuosi
Graphs by tilryh
Share of Nominal Wage declines by Industry, Manufacturing Manual0.510.510.510.510.51
1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000
1990 1995 2000 1990 1995 2000
4 5 8 19 21 22
24 27 28 30 33 34
35 43 51 52 67 68
69 72 78 81 83 84
86 87
(mean)rdecline
vuosi
Graphs by tilryh
Share of Real Wage declines by Industry, Manufacturing Manual
14. 13
Figure 3. Share of Nominal and Real Wage Declines for Private Service Sector Workers.
(reqular monthly pay)
0.02.04.06.080.02.04.06.080.02.04.06.08
1990 1995 20001990 1995 20001990 1995 2000
1 3 4
5 7 9
11 12 13
(mean)decline
VUOSI
Graphs by liitto
Share of Nominal Wage declines by Industry0.510.510.51
1990 1995 20001990 1995 20001990 1995 2000
1 3 4
5 7 9
11 12 13
(mean)rdecline
VUOSI
Graphs by liitto
Share of Real Wage declines by Industry
15. 14
The average nominal wage decline for those workers that experience a wage decline has been
higher in the service sector compared with manual and non-manual workers in manufacturing.
The same applies for average real wage declines comparing service sector and non-manuals, but
not for manuals. Note that the average real wage decline is smaller than the average nominal
wage decline, because the former contains a large number of small real declines.
5. EXPLAINING THE INCIDENCE OF WAGE CUTS
Since we focus on the prevalence of nominal wage rigidity, we examine the existence of wage
cuts rather than the size of wage declines. Hence, we use the Probit models to evaluate the
factors that have contributed to the likelihood of wage declines for job stayers during the 1990s.
The models include individual characteristics (such as age, experience, working hours, region
and gender), employer characteristics (size, female share and industry), and the form of
remuneration (as lagged share of performance pay and change in it) (see Appendix 1).6
The
estimation results for wage declines covering manufacturing and the private service sector are
reported in Tables 3−6.7
These models also include the year dummies that are not reported in
order to save space, because they reveal the same broad pattern as the tables of the earlier
section. This means that the background characteristics included do not explain the time-series
pattern of wage declines.
6
The explanatory variables are from year t with the exception of the variables that captures lagged performance
pay share and the lagged decline in wage. Those variables are from year t-1.
7
The panel-property of the individual-level data with random effects turned out to be statistically insignicant in
the determination of wage declines, so we report ordinary Probit results only.
16. 15
Table 3. Probit models for nominal wage cuts of manual workers in manufacturing.
(dependent variable indicates decline in nominal wage between t and t-1)
Notes: The marginal effects (and t-values) are reported. All models include year and industry dummies. Base
groups (omitted indicators) are prime aged (36−55), experience > 7 years, weekly hours 30−40, no overtime
hours, non-urban area, medium sized firm (20−100 employees), male, female share less than median share, no
industry change. Experience ≤2 group dropped because it is impossible in models including lagged decline as an
explanatory variable (requires three observations).
Manual Workers Manual Workers
Regular hourly (total) pay Hourly pay for time work
Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3
Lag decline -0.047 -(52.11) -0.045 -(50.54) -0.051 -(48.06) -0.050 -(46.67)
Young (≤ 25) -0.011 -(5.95) -0.010 -(5.51) -0.011 -(7.13) -0.015 -(7.32) -0.015 -(6.80) -0.016 -(9.31)
Adult (26-35) 0.000 -(0.43) 0.000 (0.13) 0.000 -(0.42) -0.002 -(2.34) -0.002 -(1.64) -0.002 -(2.43)
Old (> 55) -0.003 -(2.41) -0.003 -(2.18) -0.004 -(2.87) -0.001 -(0.76) -0.001 -(0.60) -0.003 -(1.96)
Experience ≤ 2 dropped dropped dropped dropped -0.030 -(15.68) dropped dropped dropped dropped -0.028 -(13.48)
Experience 3-4 -0.011 -(7.06) -0.011 -(7.10) -0.007 -(5.47) -0.010 -(6.00) -0.011 -(6.27) -0.010 -(7.12)
Experience 5-7 -0.001 -(0.76) 0.000 -(0.10) 0.001 (1.22) -0.001 -(1.09) -0.002 -(1.22) -0.001 -(1.16)
Weekly hours < 30 0.021 (22.28) 0.020 (21.63) 0.023 (28.92) 0.019 (16.60) 0.017 (14.75) 0.020 (20.49)
Weekly hours > 40 0.003 (2.76) 0.002 (2.04) 0.003 (3.57) -0.002 -(1.98) -0.004 -(3.46) -0.002 -(1.98)
Overtime work -0.014 -(18.69) -0.014 -(19.04) -0.015 -(22.55) -0.006 -(6.74) -0.006 -(6.29) -0.007 -(9.12)
Urban area 0.008 (9.97) 0.008 (9.79) 0.008 (10.41) 0.008 (8.36) 0.008 (8.09) 0.007 (8.64)
Small firm (< 20) 0.031 (9.14) 0.031 (9.13) 0.026 (9.19) 0.035 (10.03) 0.033 (9.44) 0.030 (10.39)
Large firm (> 100) -0.021 -(19.53) -0.021 -(19.68) -0.021 -(22.43) -0.009 -(7.80) -0.009 -(8.21) -0.009 -(9.30)
Female -0.035 -(18.66) -0.037 -(19.58) -0.040 -(23.27) -0.022 -(8.76) -0.024 -(9.26) -0.026 -(11.38)
Fem share (> med) 0.016 (17.44) 0.019 (20.32) 0.014 (16.93) 0.007 (6.14) 0.009 (7.79) 0.010 (10.29)
Fem*Femsh inter. 0.042 (17.85) 0.045 (18.76) 0.045 (20.61) 0.024 (7.83) 0.026 (8.46) 0.025 (9.21)
Industry change -0.017 -(0.25) -0.056 -(3.49) -0.059 -(3.77) -0.106 -(7.58) -0.061 -(2.39) -0.070 -(2.90)
∆Perf.pay share -0.120 -(69.11) -0.122 -(69.86) -0.133 -(88.30) 0.064 (28.68) 0.063 (27.42) 0.054 (29.11)
Lag Perf.pay share 0.081 (97.76) 0.081 (97.80) 0.084 (112.43) 0.161 (132.58) 0.162 (131.42) 0.159 (151.50)
Year*Industry YES NO NO YES NO NO
Year*Ind.change YES NO NO YES NO NO
Number of obs. 941039 941048 1160377 560467 560677 735621
Pseudo R2
0.135 0.122 0.114 0.171 0.155 0.141
Log-likelihood -351205.2 -356411.8 -441972.3 -193813.7 -197608.1 -260954.4
Obs. P 0.155 0.155 0.154 0.147 0.147 0.144
Pred. P 0.123 0.126 0.127 0.106 0.110 0.111
17. 16
Table 4. Probit models for real wage cuts of manual workers in manufacturing.
(dependent variable indicates decline in real wage between t and t-1)
Notes: as in Table 3.
Manual Workers Manual Workers
Regular hourly (total) pay Hourly pay for time work
Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3
Lag decline -0.084 -(69.84) -0.085 -(71.08) -0.084 -(50.25) -0.086 -(51.98)
Young (≤ 25) -0.056 -(20.48) -0.054 -(19.81) -0.058 -(26.25) -0.076 -(22.35) -0.073 -(21.30) -0.079 -(28.84)
Adult (26-35) -0.023 -(17.74) -0.022 -(16.71) -0.025 -(20.98) -0.036 -(20.91) -0.034 -(19.65) -0.036 -(23.93)
Old (> 55) 0.005 (2.67) 0.005 (2.38) 0.007 (3.60) 0.011 (4.20) 0.011 (4.06) 0.011 (4.68)
Experience ≤ 2 dropped dropped dropped dropped -0.113 -(40.92) dropped dropped dropped dropped -0.120 -(36.12)
Experience 3-4 -0.050 -(22.14) -0.050 -(21.99) -0.047 -(24.02) -0.058 -(20.49) -0.060 -(20.97) -0.055 -(23.15)
Experience 5-7 -0.021 -(12.00) -0.019 -(11.00) -0.015 -(9.96) -0.021 -(9.55) -0.021 -(9.47) -0.018 -(9.14)
Weekly hours < 30 0.018 (13.30) 0.025 (19.02) 0.030 (25.23) 0.015 (8.00) 0.016 (8.76) 0.023 (14.70)
Weekly hours > 40 0.001 (0.74) 0.002 (1.60) 0.001 (0.90) -0.005 -(2.55) -0.004 -(2.34) -0.004 -(2.24)
Overtime work -0.026 -(23.74) -0.026 -(24.38) -0.028 -(28.13) -0.022 -(15.29) -0.023 -(15.87) -0.027 -(21.15)
Urban area 0.006 (5.00) 0.005 (4.38) 0.005 (4.52) 0.007 (4.89) 0.006 (3.83) 0.005 (3.57)
Small firm (< 20) 0.043 (8.39) 0.043 (8.71) 0.053 (12.39) 0.036 (6.37) 0.032 (5.95) 0.048 (10.47)
Large firm (> 100) -0.033 -(20.97) -0.034 -(21.69) -0.037 -(26.27) -0.030 -(16.39) -0.031 -(17.30) -0.036 -(22.45)
Female -0.036 -(13.72) -0.040 -(14.91) -0.042 -(16.52) -0.027 -(6.97) -0.029 -(7.41) -0.029 -(8.39)
Fem share (> med) 0.025 (18.54) 0.027 (20.32) 0.028 (22.58) -0.002 -(0.86) 0.000 (0.20) 0.010 (6.23)
Fem*Femsh inter. 0.034 (10.83) 0.038 (12.08) 0.031 (10.74) 0.023 (5.16) 0.026 (5.83) 0.019 (4.85)
Industry change -0.045 -(0.56) -0.126 -(4.65) -0.131 -(4.58) -0.162 -(2.15) -0.102 -(2.17) -0.117 -(2.43)
∆Perf.pay share -0.211 -(80.82) -0.212 -(81.26) -0.242 -(103.13) 0.028 (7.30) 0.024 (5.99) 0.018 (5.50)
Lag Perf.pay share 0.029 (24.21) 0.028 (23.89) 0.023 (20.97) 0.071 (34.89) 0.067 (32.69) 0.045 (25.06)
Year*Industry YES NO NO YES NO NO
Year*Ind.change YES NO NO YES NO NO
Number of obs. 941037 941048 1160377 560467 560677 735621
Pseudo R2
0.226 0.209 0.208 0.291 0.274 0.253
Log-likelihood -457789.4 -467893.4 -593485.8 -252885.7 -258909.3 -358732.6
Obs. P 0.322 0.322 0.347 0.333 0.333 0.358
Pred. P 0.279 0.282 0.308 0.276 0.282 0.312
18. 17
Table 5. Probit models for nominal wage cuts of service sector workers and non-manual
workers in manufacturing.
(dependent variable indicates decline in nominal wage between t and t-1)
Notes: The marginal effects (and t-values) are reported. All models include year and industry dummies. Base
groups (omitted indicators) are prime aged (36−55), tenure/experience > 7 years, weekly hours over 30 (35 for
non-manuals), no overtime hours, non-urban area, medium sized firm (20−100 employees), male, female share
less than median share, skilled worker (more than basic education), no industry change.
*
The cut off point is 35 hours for non-manuals.
Service sector Workers Non-Manual Workers (manufacturing)
Monthly pay Monthly pay
Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3
Lag decline 0.040 (39.88) 0.041 (39.86) 0.003 (5.89) 0.003 (4.70)
Young (≤ 25) 0.009 (8.14) 0.010 (8.46) 0.009 (10.75) -0.007 -(5.96) -0.008 -(6.24) -0.008 -(9.67)
Adult (26-35) 0.000 (0.27) 0.000 (0.13) 0.000 -(0.14) -0.004 -(10.94) -0.004 -(10.76) -0.004 -(11.98)
Old (> 55) -0.003 -(4.88) -0.003 -(4.48) -0.003 -(5.10) 0.002 (4.92) 0.002 (4.58) 0.002 (3.69)
Tenure ≤ 2 0.008 (9.67) 0.008 (9.98) 0.011 (18.56) -0.002 -(5.03) -0.003 -(6.38) -0.004 -(10.03)
Tenure 3-4 0.002 (2.83) 0.001 (2.27) 0.003 (4.96) -0.002 -(3.87) -0.003 -3 -0.003 -(6.80)
Tenure 5-7 0.002 (2.80) 0.001 (2.42) 0.002 (4.22) -0.001 -(2.59) -0.001 -(3.41) -0.001 -(2.72)
Weekly hours < 30* 0.043 (31.40) 0.043 (31.21) 0.071 (56.32) 0.010 (9.90) 0.011 (10.21) 0.010 (10.66)
Urban area -0.005 -(10.28) -0.005 -(10.17) -0.005 -(12.93) 0.001 (2.74) 0.000 (1.33) 0.000 -(0.32)
Small firm (< 20) 0.005 (6.63) 0.005 (6.83) 0.005 (7.71) 0.003 (5.55) 0.003 (5.27) 0.004 (9.02)
Large firm (> 100) -0.005 -(8.28) -0.005 -(8.66) -0.005 -(10.49) -0.005 -(14.49) -0.004 -(12.17) -0.004 -(11.76)
Female -0.011 -(19.08) -0.011 -(19.00) -0.011 -(21.60) -0.004 -(8.77) -0.004 -(7.81) -0.004 -(9.79)
Fem share (> med) 0.005 (5.35) 0.005 (5.40) 0.006 (7.14) 0.001 (1.58) 0.000 (0.32) 0.000 (0.57)
Fem*Femsh inter. 0.006 (5.79) 0.006 (5.64) 0.006 (7.20) 0.003 (4.78) 0.003 (4.65) 0.003 (4.90)
Unskilled 0.005 (10.79) 0.005 (10.37) 0.004 (10.64) -0.001 -(3.17) -0.001 -(3.02) -0.001 -(4.37)
Industry change -0.025 -(4.93) 0.016 (13.45) 0.014 (12.18) -0.010 -(1.31) -0.013 -(18.30) -0.013 -(18.63)
∆Perf.pay share 0.189 (39.39) 0.194 (39.78) 0.204 (51.25) 0.195 (71.96) 0.230 (76.54) 0.253 (98.03)
Lag Perf.pay share 0.007 (2.01) 0.008 (2.50) 0.016 (5.72) 0.051 (26.83) 0.052 (24.10) 0.053 (27.41)
Year*Industry YES NO NO YES NO NO
Year*Ind.change YES NO NO YES NO NO
Number of obs. 774914 774914 994539 650709 655653 858772
Pseudo R2
0.057 0.050 0.055 0.208 0.137 0.131
Log-likelihood -115439.9 -116203.4 -151372.4 -61348.2 -66980.6 -86327.8
Obs. P 0.037 0.037 0.038 0.026 0.025 0.025
Pred. P 0.031 0.032 0.032 0.013 0.015 0.015
19. 18
Table 6. Probit models for real wage cuts of service sector workers and non-manual
workers in manufacturing.
(dependent variable indicates decline in real wage between t and t-1)
Notes: same as in Table 5.
The role of workers’ age in the determination of wage declines during the 1990s is mixed. For
manual workers in manufacturing, nominal wage declines have been less common for the
population of young employees during the 1990s, which is in conflict with the notions based on
fairness as an obstacle for nominal wage declines. Nominal wage declines are also less common
for aged employees. This means that nominal wage declines have been more common for the
prime-age workers (36 to 54 years of age), which is the reference group for the estimated age
effects. This pattern is in disagreement with a number of popular notions about labour markets.
The reason for the feature that nominal wage declines are less common for young employees is
probably the fact that the payment system adopted by the Finnish manufacturing companies
implies that there is usually a rather steep increase in the earnings profile for employees during
their early years. For instance, young employees move quite rapidly from trainee positions to
regular full-time jobs within manufacturing companies. In addition, wages for young employees
in manufacturing are likely to be close to the minimum wages stipulated in the current collective
agreements. This same pattern of adjustment applies to non-manual manufacturing workers.
Thus, there fails to be room for nominal wage cuts for young employees in the institutional
framework of the Finnish labour markets.
Dependent variable: Real wage decline
Service sector Workers Non-Manual Workers (manufacturing)
Monthly pay Monthly pay
Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3
Lag decline -0.066 -(31.74) -0.063 -(31.80) -0.053 -(29.56) -0.055 -(30.11)
Young (≤ 25) -0.167 -(46.60) -0.163 -(45.77) -0.146 -(56.17) -0.131 -(27.39) -0.146 -(28.04) -0.154 -(46.02)
Adult (26-35) -0.117 -(66.34) -0.116 -(66.64) -0.101 -(69.81) -0.099 -(63.48) -0.099 -(60.19) -0.095 -(68.52)
Old (> 55) 0.062 (22.71) 0.062 (23.02) 0.046 (19.76) 0.059 (24.31) 0.059 (23.78) 0.051 (23.22)
Tenure ≤ 2 -0.055 -(20.06) -0.053 -(19.30) -0.039 -(20.12) -0.052 -(23.43) -0.053 -(22.56) -0.049 -(27.74)
Tenure 3-4 -0.051 -(23.33) -0.042 -(19.42) -0.030 -(16.05) -0.037 -(18.42) -0.044 -(21.16) -0.030 -(16.24)
Tenure 5-7 -0.043 -(20.60) -0.042 -(20.25) -0.031 -(17.64) -0.015 -(7.70) -0.014 -(6.86) -0.006 -(3.29)
Weekly hours < 30 0.093 (20.61) 0.063 (14.38) 0.072 (20.56) 0.030 (6.67) 0.033 (7.01) 0.010 (2.48)
Urban area -0.001 -(0.68) -0.002 -(1.47) 0.008 (5.69) 0.020 (14.24) 0.021 (14.59) 0.022 (18.32)
Small firm (< 20) 0.019 (6.49) 0.017 (5.92) 0.016 (7.04) 0.013 (5.15) 0.014 (5.48) 0.017 (8.02)
Large firm (> 100) -0.026 -(12.80) -0.031 -(15.30) -0.033 -(20.31) -0.040 -(25.22) -0.036 -(22.54) -0.028 -(20.80)
Female -0.019 -(9.18) -0.017 -(8.23) -0.031 -(18.24) -0.010 -(4.99) -0.007 -(3.28) -0.004 -(1.92)
Fem share (> med) 0.009 (2.82) 0.003 (0.96) -0.002 -(0.67) 0.003 (1.78) -0.001 -(0.47) 0.004 (2.67)
Fem*Femsh inter. -0.015 -(4.06) -0.015 -(4.25) -0.013 -(4.39) -0.006 -(2.20) -0.005 -(1.83) -0.009 -(3.70)
Unskilled 0.024 (14.77) 0.020 (12.85) 0.011 (8.09) 0.002 (0.87) 0.000 (0.07) -0.008 -(5.15)
Industry change -0.026 -(2.00) -0.092 -(23.86) -0.080 -(21.85) 0.080 (2.16) -0.119 -(18.93) -0.115 -(19.17)
∆Perf.pay share 0.537 (25.34) 0.524 (24.83) 0.483 (29.01) 0.695 (40.62) 0.757 (42.91) 0.794 (52.18)
Lag Perf.pay share 0.026 (2.07) 0.054 (4.31) 0.180 (18.27) -0.118 -(10.02) -0.128 -(10.47) -0.046 -(4.28)
Year*Industry YES NO NO YES NO NO
Year*Ind.change YES NO NO YES NO NO
Number of obs. 774914 774914 994539 654268 655653 858772
Pseudo R2
0.466 0.446 0.410 0.446 0.406 0.362
Log-likelihood -283245.0 -293766.0 -395805.5 -228872.9 -245802.9 -346964.6
Obs. P 0.435 0.435 0.404 0.323 0.326 0.329
Pred. P 0.359 0.361 0.335 0.214 0.244 0.250
20. 19
Real wage declines for young manual and non-manual workers in manufacturing are also
substantially less common than for prime-aged employees. In contrast to declines in nominal
wages, cuts in real wages are slightly more common for the aged manual manufacturing workers.
The pattern is the same, but stronger for non-manual manufacturing workers. Thus, nominal
wage increases for aged manual manufacturing workers tend to be more often above zero, but at
the same time below the current rate of inflation, compared with other age groups. This feature
is consistent with nominal wage rigidity as an obstacle to nominal wage cuts for aged manual
employees, although their real wages may be cut. However, in quantitative terms these effects
for older workers are quite small in manufacturing. In the service sector nominal wage declines
are more common for young workers. However, real wage declines for young workers are
substantially less likely compared with prime-aged and older workers, as in manufacturing. This
pattern means that in services nominal wage declines are more common for young workers, but
nominal pay increases that are below inflation are relatively less common for young workers
compared to prime-aged and older workers. In contrast, declines in real wages are substantially
more common for aged workers. In general these results indicate that the population of aged
employees constitutes the most flexible part of labour force in terms of downward real wage
adjustment both in manufacturing and service sectors.
Experience provides an indicator of the attachment of workers to labour markets. Nominal and
real wage declines are less common for less experienced manual workers that have a looser
attachment to manufacturing plants. The findings for non-manual workers in manufacturing are
mixed, because nominal wage cuts are less common for newcomers, but real wage cuts are
actually more common for them. These findings are not consistent with the notions based on
fairness, but they most likely reflect the same factors as for age above. Nominal wage declines
are more common for the service sector workers that have a short tenure, whereas cuts in real
wages are less common. All in all, long attachment to the same firm does not provide a shield
against negative real wage changes.
Gender seems to matter for the incidence of wage declines. Both nominal and real wage declines
are slightly less common for females. The reason for this is probably the fact that the labour
supply responses for females are more flexible in terms of hours and numbers, implying less need
for wage cuts. Nominal wage declines are more common for manual workers in manufacturing
plants that have a large share of females. The same pattern applies to the service sector, but fails
to apply to non-manual manufacturing workers. A possible explanation of this pattern is the low
capital intensity of a plant that is associated with a high female share, which means that there is
more overall need for the adjustment of labour costs. However, in manufacturing there is
21. 20
evidence that nominal and real wage declines are more common for those females that are
employed in female-dominated plants. The pattern fails to extend to non-manual manufacturing
workers. These effects for the female-dominated service sector are smaller and mixed for real
and nominal wages in this respect.
The hours of work play an important role in the incidence of wage declines. Declines in nominal
and real wages are less common for employees that perform a great number of weekly working
hours. These employees constitute the firm insiders that are largely shielded from wage cuts.
This pattern is consistent with the efficiency-wage explanation and the fairness standards as an
obstacle to wage cuts. A version of the efficiency-wage theory based on the worker turnover
suggests that wage declines are avoided for the firm insiders, because they are more important
for the productivity and the profitability of a firm compared with the part-time workers. The
fairness standards can also be more tight for the firm insiders. Additional estimation results that
involved interactions of the explanatory variables with the years revealed that the influence of
hours of work on the incidence of wage cuts across individuals was especially strong during the
great slump of the early 1990s.8
For instance, contractions in real wages were over 10% more
likely for manual workers in manufacturing that work less than 30 hours in 1994. In other
words, nominal and real wage cuts have been more likely among part-time workers. The pattern
extends to non-manual workers in manufacturing and the service sector. This means that there
are certain common elements in the incidence of the burden of wage cuts across sectors.
Overtime constitutes an important part of the adjustment of the total hours of work in
manufacturing. Thus, for manual workers in manufacturing, there is strong evidence for the
perspective that an increase in paid overtime hours yields a decrease in the likelihood of
nominal wage decline. The reason is most likely that overtime captures the profitability of a
plant that is not available in the wage records by employers. In other words, an increase in the
profits of a plant means that there is more need for paid overtime and there fails to be a need for
nominal wage cuts at the same time.9
Regional disparities are sharp in Finland. The geographical pattern of wage cuts is therefore
interesting. Nominal wage declines for manual and non-manual workers in manufacturing have
been slightly more common in urban areas during the 1990s. This particular pattern is not
consistent with the stylized feature that urban areas are, in broad terms, characterized by the
8
These results are not shown in tables, but they are available upon request.
9
This conclusion is based on the fact that overtime premia are high in Finland. The (minimum) premium for
daily overtime is 50% for the first two hours and 100% for each following hour. The premium for weekly
overtime is 50%, irrespective of the number of hours.
22. 21
lower level of the unemployment rate compared with the rest of the Finnish regions. Thus, there
should be fewer pressures for wage cuts in the population of manufacturing plants that are
located in those regions. An explanation for the pattern that wage declines are more common in
manufacturing in urban areas may be that these regional labour markets are more dynamic by
their nature in the sense that temporary pay rises are followed by temporary declines in wages.
However, in the service sector declines in nominal wages are less common in urban areas, but in
real wages this effect is insignificant.
Nominal and real wage cuts are more common in small plants. The size effect is robust across
sectors. The size of a plant measured by the number of employees can matter for wage cuts for
several reasons. There is more need for wage cuts in small plants, because they face more
volatility from product markets and for that reason there is more need for the adjustment of
labour costs among small plants (see, for example, Caves 1998). An additional explanation for
the fact that wage declines are more common in small firms is that there is almost always a low
hierarchy in small firms compared with large companies with a great number of separate
establishments, which facilitates a more efficient and detailed flow of information about the
position of firms in the population of small firms. As a consequence of this, workers are more
informed about the financial situation of a firm and they are therefore more willing to make
sacrifices in terms of wage cuts in order to preserve the continuity of a firm’s operations.
However, the pattern that wage cuts are more common in small plants is in disagreement with
the notions based on fairness as an obstacle to nominal wage declines, because fairness standards
should be stricter in small plants due to the fact that there is more need for repeated personal
interactions in small plants between employer and employees.
The regular wage of workers consists of several components that have a different exposure to the
performance of an employer. For manual and non-manual workers in manufacturing, the lagged
performance-related pay share variable gets a positive sign and the effect is substantial by its
magnitude. This means that those employees that have a great deal of volatile components in
their regular wage have a substantially higher likelihood to experience nominal and real wage
decline. The same pattern exists for the service sector workers. In contrast, the variable that
captures the change in the performance-related pay share decreases the likelihood of a wage
decline for manual workers in manufacturing. There are at least two explanations for this
pattern. First, the performance-related pay rates are higher than the pay rates for time pay.
Thus, a decline in the regular hourly wage is less likely as the share of these wage components
with the higher average rates increases. Second, manual workers in manufacturing may supply
more performance-related hours in order to resist declines in time wages. This reduces the
23. 22
likelihood of declines in total wages, but creates a positive correlation between declines in time
wages and the performance pay share, as found in the model for time wages in contrast to the
negative effect on regular wage (in Tables 3–4). The findings for non-manual manufacturing
workers and for service sector workers reveal the opposite pattern. A possible explanation for
this is that service sector workers are not able to resist declines in wages by increasing the supply
of performance-related hours.
Unskilled workers have a higher likelihood of nominal and real wage decline in the service
sector.10
This means that education is somewhat helpful in avoiding wage decline. Efficiency-
wages may explain this pattern. Nominal and real wage cuts are not easily implemented for
skilled workers, because they are more important for the productivity and the profitability of a
firm compared with unskilled workers. There is therefore some evidence for the perspective that
unskilled workers carried the heaviest burden of depression in both prices and quantities,
because the net rate of employment change was the most negative for the employees with basic
education only during the great slump of the early 1990s. However, for non-manual
manufacturing workers there is some evidence for a small negative or insignificant effect of
education on wage cuts. All in all, education effects are quite small and different across sectors.
An important feature of wage declines is their persistence for individuals. The negative welfare
effects of wage declines in terms of lost labour income are highlighted if wage declines are
strongly persistent in time. We find empirical evidence for a transitory component in nominal
and real wage declines. For instance, in the case of nominal wages a decline in a wage is 5% less
common for a manual worker who has experienced a nominal wage cut during the previous year,
other things being equal. In contrast, there is some persistence in nominal wage declines for
non-manual manufacturing workers, but the share of workers experiencing nominal wage cuts is
small in this segment. Nominal wage declines for service sector workers show stronger
persistence, but nominal wage cuts are quite rare also in this sector. However, the effect of
lagged decline on the likelihood of real wage decline is again negative for non-manual
manufacturing workers and for service sector workers, similar to manual workers. Thus, we find
evidence for an important transitory component in the likelihood of real wage decline for all
sectors and worker groups.
10
This particular variable is not available for manual manufacturing workers. However, it can be argued that
education is not important in the incidence of wage cuts across individuals in manufacturing owing to the
homogeneity of the labour force. In contrast, the Finnish private service sector is more heterogenous in terms of
education requirements of workers, because it contains firms from pharmacies with academic education
requirements to restaurants with few requirements for formal education.
24. 23
6. CONCLUSIONS
There has been a great deal of heterogeneity in wage cuts for job stayers in Finland during the
1990s. The frequency of nominal wage declines has been highest for manual workers in
manufacturing. In contrast, there has been a substantially lower number of negative nominal
wage changes for non-manual workers in manufacturing and for service sector workers. Nominal
wage moderation with the positive inflation rate during the great slump of the early 1990s made
it possible to implement real wage cuts for a large proportion of employees without implementing
aggregate nominal wage cuts by the collective agreements. In this sense, centralized bargaining
shaped the adjustment.
There are relatively few factors that have a common influence on the likelihood of wage decline
across the segments of the Finnish economy. However, the hours of work and the size of a
plant/firm play a similar role in the incidence of wage cuts. Full-time workers, who constitute the
firm insiders, have a lower likelihood of nominal and real wage decline. Moreover, nominal and
real wage declines tend to be more common in small plants, where there is perhaps more need
for the adjustment of labour costs due to product market effects. There is some evidence for
nominal wage rigidity to play a role in nominal wage cuts. For example, nominal wage increases
among the population of aged manual employees in manufacturing tend to be constrained above
zero, but at the same time they may be less than the current rate of inflation producing declines
in real wages.
The persistence of wage cuts shows interesting differences across the segments of the Finnish
labour markets. Nominal wage declines are more transitory by their nature within the segments
in which they are more common. In other words, nominal wage declines have been more
common for manual workers in manufacturing during the 1990s, but they have been more
transitory by their nature. In contrast, for non-manual workers in manufacturing and for service
sector workers, declines in nominal wages have been less common by their frequency, but they
have been more persistent than for manual workers.
25. 24
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27. 26
Appendix 1. Description of the variables.
Variable Definition/measurement
Lag decline Individual has experienced a decline in wage in previous year=1, otherwise 0
Young (≤25) Age of an individual is less than or equal to 25=1, otherwise 0
Adult (26−35) Age of an individual is between 26−35=1, otherwise 0
Old (>55) Age of an individual is older than 55=1, otherwise 0
Experience ≤2 Experience of an individual within manufacturing industries is less than or equal to
2 years =1, otherwise 0
Experience 3−4 Experience of an individual within manufacturing industries is between 3−4
years=1, otherwise 0
Experience 5−7 Experience of an individual within manufacturing industries is between 5−7
years=1, otherwise 0
Tenure ≤2 Tenure of an individual with the current employer in the service sector is less than
or equal to 2 years =1, otherwise 0
Tenure 3−4 Tenure of an individual with the current employer in the service sector is between
3−4 years =1, otherwise 0
Tenure 5−7 Tenure of an individual with the current employer in the service sector is between
5−7 years =1, otherwise 0
Weekly hours <30 Weekly working hours are less than 30 hours=1, otherwise 0 (cut off point is 35
hours for non-manuals)
Weekly hours >40 Weekly working hours are more than 40 hours=1, otherwise 0
Overtime work Manual manufacturing worker has worked paid overtime=1, otherwise 0
Urban area Individual is living in a high price level urban area in Southern Finland=1,
otherwise 0
Small firm (<20) Individual is working in a small firm that employs less than 20 employees=1,
otherwise 0
Large firm (>100) Individual is working in a large firm that employs more than 100 employees=1,
otherwise 0
Female 1=female, 0=male
Fem share (>med) Share of females in a firm is more than median share in that particular industry and
year=1, otherwise 0
Fem*Femsh inter. Individual is a female working in an above median female-share firm in that
particular industry and year=1, otherwise 0
Unskilled Individual has basic education only=1, otherwise 0 (for non-manual manufacturing
workers and service sector workers only)
Industry change Individual’s employer firm’s industry changes from previous year =1, otherwise 0
∆Perf.pay share Change in performance pay share. Performance pay includes compensation based on
piece rates and/or other forms of remuneration that depend on individual’s
performance.
Lag Perf.pay share Lagged performance pay share
INDUSTRY Dummies based on the collective agreement that the person is subject to. These are
close to industries.
YEARS Dummies for years of observation from 1991 to 2000