Building Industry Forecast DC Jeff Meyers On National TrendsMeyers Research LLC
Jeff Meyers presented highlights on national trends at the Building Industry Forecast For D.C. Metro that explored questions: Where are we? Where are we going? This executive forecast breakfast was hosted by Meyers Research in support of building industry charity Homeaid America.
To learn about upcoming events visit http://www.meyersresearchllc.com/events/
Get our newsletter http://www.eepurl.com/DLd6D
Even if enough time has passed since a foreclosure, many lenders are loath to make loans to borrowers with any blemish on their credit history. The average credit score on purchase mortgage loans sold to Fannie Mae last year was close to 745. In a more typical housing market, like that prior to the housing bubble, the average score was closer to 715. This 30-point difference represents several
million potential homebuyers.
The residential and now commercial mortgage problem is still the biggest
issue facing the U.S. Economy. A year ago, I presented this Powerpoint
Slide show, "The Mortgage Mess" (see the attachment). It is very
interesting to see what has happened in the past almost 12 months.
* The situation has become worse, not better, in spite of throwing
hundreds of billions of dollars at the problem. The TARP funds were not
used as intended, and are being redirected for other purposes.
* The problem hasn't gone away. There will be as many foreclosures in the
next couple of years as have already occurred. One out of every seven
houses in the country is underwater: the home values are less than the
mortgages on the homes.
* Although the GDP shows some slight improvement, that is mostly due to
artificial stimulus, which cannot last.
* We are still losing 200,000 jobs every month; better than the 700,000
per month we were losing in the Spring, but still increasing nonetheless.
* Mark Zandi of Moody Economics has said within the last two days that
unemployment can be expected to peak at 10.6%; when counting in those who
have stopped looking and those who are underemployed (the engineer flipping
burgers), it is closer to 18% - 20%. Such unemployment rates cannot sustain
any solid economic recovery.
* The credit card bust is well underway. Whereas there were 400 million credit cards issued a year, now there are only 300 million in circulation,
and interest rates have increased significantly.
This document discusses recent housing market trends in Southwest California. It notes that in May, home sales increased 14% from the previous month while median home prices rose 4%. Inventory remains low across most cities in the region, at 2 months or less of supply. The fast pace of home sales compared to new listings coming on the market has led to absorption rates over 100% in many cities, making it difficult to build up inventory. Distressed property sales continue to decline as a percentage of the total market.
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - June 2020Jon Weaver
Sales of single-family, re-sale homes tanked, again, in May compared to last year. Home sales were down 56.5%. There were 104 homes sold in San Francisco last month. The average since 2000 is 214. We expect home sales to continue dropping for the next two months.
Residential Real Estate market update covering the Macro Economy and its influence on local real estate markets. Designed to assist investors to make informed decision, and move forward with confidence.
The document discusses the causes of the housing market downturn in Chicago and nationally. It argues that the primary cause was a lack of housing affordability as home prices grew much faster than incomes from 2004-2007. Creative financing using subprime mortgages allowed home prices to surge far beyond affordable levels for median income earners. Now that subprime lending has collapsed, home prices remain too high and sales have dropped dramatically as traditional lending standards have returned. The recovery will require a shift to more affordable home prices aligned with median incomes.
The Wright Report is perfect bathroom reading to help understand local real estate. Well, maybe for some. This is a very detailed report to unpack the housing market in Northern California as well as other national economic influences. What is making value move? And where have values been moving? Compiled by Real Estate Broker Joel Wright (and yours truly contributed a couple pages). Counties covered include: Sacramento, Placer, Yolo, El Dorado & San Joaquin.
Building Industry Forecast DC Jeff Meyers On National TrendsMeyers Research LLC
Jeff Meyers presented highlights on national trends at the Building Industry Forecast For D.C. Metro that explored questions: Where are we? Where are we going? This executive forecast breakfast was hosted by Meyers Research in support of building industry charity Homeaid America.
To learn about upcoming events visit http://www.meyersresearchllc.com/events/
Get our newsletter http://www.eepurl.com/DLd6D
Even if enough time has passed since a foreclosure, many lenders are loath to make loans to borrowers with any blemish on their credit history. The average credit score on purchase mortgage loans sold to Fannie Mae last year was close to 745. In a more typical housing market, like that prior to the housing bubble, the average score was closer to 715. This 30-point difference represents several
million potential homebuyers.
The residential and now commercial mortgage problem is still the biggest
issue facing the U.S. Economy. A year ago, I presented this Powerpoint
Slide show, "The Mortgage Mess" (see the attachment). It is very
interesting to see what has happened in the past almost 12 months.
* The situation has become worse, not better, in spite of throwing
hundreds of billions of dollars at the problem. The TARP funds were not
used as intended, and are being redirected for other purposes.
* The problem hasn't gone away. There will be as many foreclosures in the
next couple of years as have already occurred. One out of every seven
houses in the country is underwater: the home values are less than the
mortgages on the homes.
* Although the GDP shows some slight improvement, that is mostly due to
artificial stimulus, which cannot last.
* We are still losing 200,000 jobs every month; better than the 700,000
per month we were losing in the Spring, but still increasing nonetheless.
* Mark Zandi of Moody Economics has said within the last two days that
unemployment can be expected to peak at 10.6%; when counting in those who
have stopped looking and those who are underemployed (the engineer flipping
burgers), it is closer to 18% - 20%. Such unemployment rates cannot sustain
any solid economic recovery.
* The credit card bust is well underway. Whereas there were 400 million credit cards issued a year, now there are only 300 million in circulation,
and interest rates have increased significantly.
This document discusses recent housing market trends in Southwest California. It notes that in May, home sales increased 14% from the previous month while median home prices rose 4%. Inventory remains low across most cities in the region, at 2 months or less of supply. The fast pace of home sales compared to new listings coming on the market has led to absorption rates over 100% in many cities, making it difficult to build up inventory. Distressed property sales continue to decline as a percentage of the total market.
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - June 2020Jon Weaver
Sales of single-family, re-sale homes tanked, again, in May compared to last year. Home sales were down 56.5%. There were 104 homes sold in San Francisco last month. The average since 2000 is 214. We expect home sales to continue dropping for the next two months.
Residential Real Estate market update covering the Macro Economy and its influence on local real estate markets. Designed to assist investors to make informed decision, and move forward with confidence.
The document discusses the causes of the housing market downturn in Chicago and nationally. It argues that the primary cause was a lack of housing affordability as home prices grew much faster than incomes from 2004-2007. Creative financing using subprime mortgages allowed home prices to surge far beyond affordable levels for median income earners. Now that subprime lending has collapsed, home prices remain too high and sales have dropped dramatically as traditional lending standards have returned. The recovery will require a shift to more affordable home prices aligned with median incomes.
The Wright Report is perfect bathroom reading to help understand local real estate. Well, maybe for some. This is a very detailed report to unpack the housing market in Northern California as well as other national economic influences. What is making value move? And where have values been moving? Compiled by Real Estate Broker Joel Wright (and yours truly contributed a couple pages). Counties covered include: Sacramento, Placer, Yolo, El Dorado & San Joaquin.
Optimal Recommendations under Attraction, Aversion, and Social InfluenceWei Lu
Published in ACM 2014 International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (SIGKDD 2014)
Abstract:
People's interests are dynamically evolving, often affected by external factors such as trends promoted by the media or adopted by their friends. In this work, we model interest evolution through dynamic interest cascades: we consider a scenario where a user's interests may be affected by (a) the interests of other users in her social circle, as well as (b) suggestions she receives from a recommender system. In the latter case, we model user reactions through either attraction or aversion towards past suggestions.
We study this interest evolution process, and the utility accrued by recommendations, as a function of the system's recommendation strategy. We show that, in steady state, the optimal strategy can be computed as the solution of a semi-definite program (SDP). Using datasets of user ratings, we provide evidence for the existence of aversion and attraction in real-life data, and show that our optimal strategy can lead to significantly improved recommendations over systems that ignore aversion and attraction.
This document summarizes Jason Schintgen's Project 4 on mobile and tablet design from 6-29-14. It includes statistics on growth in mobile phone and tablet use as well as guidelines for mobile web design such as responsive design and optimization for various device sizes. Examples of both good and bad mobile web design are provided and analyzed, including recommendations for improving Collins Catering's mobile site.
Pole dancing myths are dispelled on the Poleates website, including that pole dancing is only for strippers, young coordinated people, women, requires high heels, and is purely for male entertainment. The website aims to show pole dancing can be enjoyed by all.
This document provides tips for managing a startup project during a 54-hour Startup Weekend event. It recommends:
1) Brainstorming all ideas early and prioritizing based on validations and feasibility within time constraints.
2) Using tools like Scrum boards and assigning roles/tasks to allocate work and set deadlines.
3) Focusing on validating customer need, building an MVP prototype, and creating a business model as these will be key judging criteria.
Harley Davidson's brand symbols include their logo of a bar and shield, the sound of their engines, their eagle mascot, and the color black. Some of their heroes include Elvis Presley and Carroll Resweber. Rituals for Harley owners include annual events like the Sturgis Rally and a sense of belonging to the Harley Owners Group. The brand's values include individualism, rebellion, and a sense of freedom and adventure on the open road.
This document lists various items that can be recycled such as bags, bottles, cartons, containers, glass, jars, newspaper, paper and plastic. It also lists actions people can take such as keeping, recycling, reducing, reusing, throwing away, turning off, turning on, plugging in and unplugging items.
Lledó Energía produces high performance prismatic daylighting systems called Lledó Sunoptics. Lledó Sunoptics maximize light transmission with 100% diffusion, illuminating larger areas for more hours per day to reduce power consumption. They provide a higher light transmission than conventional skylights by 35% without causing damage from direct sunlight or UV radiation indoors. Lledó Sunoptics have been installed in commercial and industrial buildings across Europe and the United States.
Company established in 2007 year and having an experience of more than 7 years. It come up with the best solutions for the registration a new companies in Singapore . This Company offered best solutions for all types of business and other services.
Istraživanje „Sreća i porodice sa decom u Srbiji“ koje je sproveo UNICEF uz podršku Hemofarm fondacije, pokazuje da je jaka porodica najvažnija za sreću. Funkcionisanje i navike porodice, način vaspitanja dece, odsustvo konflikata i povezanost sa užom i širom socijalnom sredinom ključni su za sreću – jedan je od glavnih zaključaka istraživanja.
Italian reverse mortgage prestito vitalizio ipotecarioPaolo Pellegrini
MINISTERO DELLO SVILUPPO ECONOMICO DECRETO 22 dicembre 2015, n. 226 Regolamento recante norme in materia di disciplina del prestito vitalizio ipotecario, ai sensi dell'articolo 11-quaterdecies, comma 12-quinquies, del decreto-legge 30 settembre 2005, n. 203, convertito, con modificazioni, dalla legge 2 dicembre 2005, n. 248, come modificato dall'articolo 1, comma 1, della legge 2 aprile 2015, n. 44. (16G00024) (GU Serie Generale n.38 del 16-2-2016) note: Entrata in vigore del provvedimento: 02/03/2016
Singapore’s Income Tax Act is the governing law involving individual and corporate taxation issues. Previously known as the Inland Revenue Department, Inland Revenue Authority of Singapore or IRAS was founded in the year 1960.
The 2014 Serbia Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) and 2014 Serbia Roma Settlements Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) were carried out in 2014 by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia as part of the global MICS programme. Technical as well as financial
support was provided by the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF).
La Unión Europea está considerando nuevas regulaciones para limitar el uso de inteligencia artificial. Estas regulaciones se centrarían en aplicaciones de IA consideradas de alto riesgo, como los sistemas de vigilancia, y requerirían que los desarrolladores demuestren que sus sistemas son seguros y no causan daños antes de su implementación. La UE busca establecer estándares éticos estrictos para la IA para proteger los derechos humanos y la privacidad de los ciudadanos.
This document lists various farm animals such as bull, donkey, duck, goat, hen, horse, pig, cockerel, and sheep. It also lists farm objects and structures like barn, farmer, farmhouse, fence, gate, hay, pond, scarecrow, and tractor. The document provides a list of items that would typically be found on a farm.
Annie Williams Real Estate Report Sept-Oct 2015Jon Weaver
Even with rising home prices over the past few years, many homeowners who have considered selling are deciding not to because they are caught in an affordability squeeze that is
compounded by a lack of inventory, according to findings from the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®’ (C.A.R.) “2015 Survey of California Homeowners.” More than one-third (35%) of homeowners have considered selling their home in the past year, and of that share, about two-thirds (64%) are reluctant to sell because they are finding they can’t afford the home they really want, the survey found.
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - Dec 2015Jon Weaver
- Housing affordability in California is expected to experience long-term issues due to high home prices, not enough homes being built, and rising rents making it difficult for many to save for a down payment.
- In many California markets, including the San Francisco Bay Area and Southern California, the luxury home market remains active with Asian buyers continuing to fuel demand. However, overall home sales are down while prices continue rising.
- A lack of housing inventory is seen as a key factor sustaining high home prices in San Francisco, with the median home price rising 13% year-over-year and staying over $1 million for most of the past two years.
Optimal Recommendations under Attraction, Aversion, and Social InfluenceWei Lu
Published in ACM 2014 International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining (SIGKDD 2014)
Abstract:
People's interests are dynamically evolving, often affected by external factors such as trends promoted by the media or adopted by their friends. In this work, we model interest evolution through dynamic interest cascades: we consider a scenario where a user's interests may be affected by (a) the interests of other users in her social circle, as well as (b) suggestions she receives from a recommender system. In the latter case, we model user reactions through either attraction or aversion towards past suggestions.
We study this interest evolution process, and the utility accrued by recommendations, as a function of the system's recommendation strategy. We show that, in steady state, the optimal strategy can be computed as the solution of a semi-definite program (SDP). Using datasets of user ratings, we provide evidence for the existence of aversion and attraction in real-life data, and show that our optimal strategy can lead to significantly improved recommendations over systems that ignore aversion and attraction.
This document summarizes Jason Schintgen's Project 4 on mobile and tablet design from 6-29-14. It includes statistics on growth in mobile phone and tablet use as well as guidelines for mobile web design such as responsive design and optimization for various device sizes. Examples of both good and bad mobile web design are provided and analyzed, including recommendations for improving Collins Catering's mobile site.
Pole dancing myths are dispelled on the Poleates website, including that pole dancing is only for strippers, young coordinated people, women, requires high heels, and is purely for male entertainment. The website aims to show pole dancing can be enjoyed by all.
This document provides tips for managing a startup project during a 54-hour Startup Weekend event. It recommends:
1) Brainstorming all ideas early and prioritizing based on validations and feasibility within time constraints.
2) Using tools like Scrum boards and assigning roles/tasks to allocate work and set deadlines.
3) Focusing on validating customer need, building an MVP prototype, and creating a business model as these will be key judging criteria.
Harley Davidson's brand symbols include their logo of a bar and shield, the sound of their engines, their eagle mascot, and the color black. Some of their heroes include Elvis Presley and Carroll Resweber. Rituals for Harley owners include annual events like the Sturgis Rally and a sense of belonging to the Harley Owners Group. The brand's values include individualism, rebellion, and a sense of freedom and adventure on the open road.
This document lists various items that can be recycled such as bags, bottles, cartons, containers, glass, jars, newspaper, paper and plastic. It also lists actions people can take such as keeping, recycling, reducing, reusing, throwing away, turning off, turning on, plugging in and unplugging items.
Lledó Energía produces high performance prismatic daylighting systems called Lledó Sunoptics. Lledó Sunoptics maximize light transmission with 100% diffusion, illuminating larger areas for more hours per day to reduce power consumption. They provide a higher light transmission than conventional skylights by 35% without causing damage from direct sunlight or UV radiation indoors. Lledó Sunoptics have been installed in commercial and industrial buildings across Europe and the United States.
Company established in 2007 year and having an experience of more than 7 years. It come up with the best solutions for the registration a new companies in Singapore . This Company offered best solutions for all types of business and other services.
Istraživanje „Sreća i porodice sa decom u Srbiji“ koje je sproveo UNICEF uz podršku Hemofarm fondacije, pokazuje da je jaka porodica najvažnija za sreću. Funkcionisanje i navike porodice, način vaspitanja dece, odsustvo konflikata i povezanost sa užom i širom socijalnom sredinom ključni su za sreću – jedan je od glavnih zaključaka istraživanja.
Italian reverse mortgage prestito vitalizio ipotecarioPaolo Pellegrini
MINISTERO DELLO SVILUPPO ECONOMICO DECRETO 22 dicembre 2015, n. 226 Regolamento recante norme in materia di disciplina del prestito vitalizio ipotecario, ai sensi dell'articolo 11-quaterdecies, comma 12-quinquies, del decreto-legge 30 settembre 2005, n. 203, convertito, con modificazioni, dalla legge 2 dicembre 2005, n. 248, come modificato dall'articolo 1, comma 1, della legge 2 aprile 2015, n. 44. (16G00024) (GU Serie Generale n.38 del 16-2-2016) note: Entrata in vigore del provvedimento: 02/03/2016
Singapore’s Income Tax Act is the governing law involving individual and corporate taxation issues. Previously known as the Inland Revenue Department, Inland Revenue Authority of Singapore or IRAS was founded in the year 1960.
The 2014 Serbia Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) and 2014 Serbia Roma Settlements Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) were carried out in 2014 by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia as part of the global MICS programme. Technical as well as financial
support was provided by the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF).
La Unión Europea está considerando nuevas regulaciones para limitar el uso de inteligencia artificial. Estas regulaciones se centrarían en aplicaciones de IA consideradas de alto riesgo, como los sistemas de vigilancia, y requerirían que los desarrolladores demuestren que sus sistemas son seguros y no causan daños antes de su implementación. La UE busca establecer estándares éticos estrictos para la IA para proteger los derechos humanos y la privacidad de los ciudadanos.
This document lists various farm animals such as bull, donkey, duck, goat, hen, horse, pig, cockerel, and sheep. It also lists farm objects and structures like barn, farmer, farmhouse, fence, gate, hay, pond, scarecrow, and tractor. The document provides a list of items that would typically be found on a farm.
Annie Williams Real Estate Report Sept-Oct 2015Jon Weaver
Even with rising home prices over the past few years, many homeowners who have considered selling are deciding not to because they are caught in an affordability squeeze that is
compounded by a lack of inventory, according to findings from the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®’ (C.A.R.) “2015 Survey of California Homeowners.” More than one-third (35%) of homeowners have considered selling their home in the past year, and of that share, about two-thirds (64%) are reluctant to sell because they are finding they can’t afford the home they really want, the survey found.
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - Dec 2015Jon Weaver
- Housing affordability in California is expected to experience long-term issues due to high home prices, not enough homes being built, and rising rents making it difficult for many to save for a down payment.
- In many California markets, including the San Francisco Bay Area and Southern California, the luxury home market remains active with Asian buyers continuing to fuel demand. However, overall home sales are down while prices continue rising.
- A lack of housing inventory is seen as a key factor sustaining high home prices in San Francisco, with the median home price rising 13% year-over-year and staying over $1 million for most of the past two years.
- Home sales in 2014 are expected to hold steady at around 5.12 million units, similar to projected sales in 2013. Median home prices are forecast to rise nearly 6% in 2014 after an expected 11% increase in 2013.
- Inventory shortages continue to put upward pressure on home prices. Housing starts need to increase substantially to meet demand and alleviate the shortage.
- Mortgage rates are projected to rise through 2014, reaching over 5% by year-end, which will impact affordability. Job growth and potential easing of lending standards could offset higher rates.
- Inflation may start to rise in 2014 as the rent component increases, emphasizing the need for more new home construction to control price growth
The document discusses the state of the housing market in Southwest California. It notes that home prices have increased 22% year-over-year in June 2013, with median prices reaching their highest levels since 2008. Home sales have remained steady while inventory has risen, alleviating pressure. Distressed home sales now make up a smaller portion of the market. The recovery appears to be continuing but uncertainty remains around employment, the economy, and new state regulations governing foreclosures. The author advocates restoring a tax exemption for senior homeowners to attract more to the region and boost the economy.
The document discusses a meeting of realtors where speakers explained the slow housing recovery, noting that recovery depends on one's financial position prior to the crisis. Younger generations are not buying homes as expected due to factors like student debt or preference to live at home. While local markets are improving, with sales and prices up, the national recovery remains uneven and hampered by restrictive lending and high unemployment.
This document provides an overview and analysis of luxury real estate market trends in 2017. Some key points:
- Prices for luxury homes leveled off in 2017 after years of explosive growth, with inventory rising and demand stabilizing into a "new normal."
- Median prices decreased slightly for single-family homes but remained steady for condos. Sales decreased for single-family homes but slightly for condos.
- Days on market and sales-price-to-list-price ratios indicated markets moving toward more balance. Non-coastal "Power Markets" like Austin and Denver saw continued strength.
- Coastal luxury markets like Los Angeles and New York showed differing trends by neighborhood, with
The New American Dream: Why People Are Choosing to RentSuong Nguyen
As more people choose to rent apartments over buying homes, North American Properties - Atlanta (NAP) has released “The New American Dream” SlideShare that looks at who the new renter is, what factors are contributing to this trend and what it means for the future of multi-housing. NAP first became interested in studying this phenomenon after receiving a flood of inquiries for its luxury rental property, Haven, at Avalon, a $600 million mixed-use development opening Oct. 30 in Alpharetta, Georgia.
The document summarizes the state of housing in California in 2009. It finds that despite recent improvements in affordability due to foreclosures, California still lacks adequate housing supply, particularly in locations close to jobs and transit. The state faces ongoing population growth and demand for different housing types from changing demographics like aging baby boomers. While foreclosures increased supply, vacant homes often do not match the demand for more urban, infill housing. Swift action is needed to boost supply and affordability through home construction to support the economy and quality of life in California.
Up and Coming Families is the dominant consumer segment in Lake Elsinore, California, making up 36.4% of households. They are generally younger, more ethnically diverse families with children living in new suburban housing developments. The median household income is $56,972 and most work in professional or service industries. Residents enjoy family-oriented activities like visiting theme parks and zoos.
During the war years President Franklin Delano Roosevelt once said that a nation of homeowners is unconquerable. Margaret Thatcher, with a mantra that homeowners become responsible citizens, privatized and moved 1.7 million families from public housing into private ownership. President Bill Clinton has stated his belief that homeownership and decent housing are an essential part of the American Dream and wanted to make the dream of homeownership a reality for all Americans. President George W. Bush has said ownership has the power to transform people. Thus, the promotion of homeownership has been an integral part of President Bush’s vision of an “ownership society.” Even in the earliest days of civilization, before the collection and touting of statistical data, Aristotle had argued that ownership promotes virtue and responsibility.
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - Jan 2016Jon Weaver
Jonathan Smoke, chief economist of realtor.com, and his team carried out the data analysis and identified the top 20 medium-to-large markets where homes are moving fastest and interest
(based on listing views on realtor.com) is highest. At the top of the list, for the second month in a row, is San Francisco, followed by its sister Bay Area city San Jose.
Annie Williams Real Estate Report - January 2021Jon Weaver
- Home sales in San Francisco rose in December 2020 compared to the previous year, with single-family home sales up 52.6% and condo/loft sales up 59.7%. However, sales declined from November 2020.
- The median sales price of single-family homes rose 9.1% year-over-year to $1,582,000, while the median price of condos/lofts fell 8.2% to $1,100,000.
- Mortgage rates remained historically low throughout 2020, falling below 3% at some points, fueling increased homebuyer demand and refinance activity despite economic uncertainties caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Want to know whats happening in the Real Estate Market in Santa Clara County and East Bay County?
Is There a Housing Bubble ? What do the expert say ?
Want to know more ? Contact us today.
www.ValleyRG.com
Matt Nguyen, 408-816-9698
The document provides a market analysis of Hyundai and pre-owned vehicle sales for Buchanan Jenkins Hyundai from November 2005 to July 2006. It uses Mosaic lifestyle segmentation to identify the top customer types that purchased Hyundai and pre-owned vehicles, which make up about half of Buchanan Jenkins' sales. It analyzes customer data like demographics, media consumption, and vehicle ownership to build targeted marketing profiles and strategies to find more potential customers.
This document provides a summary of the Western North Carolina real estate market in the first quarter of 2016. It finds that there is a severe shortage of low-to-moderate priced homes, with a 36% shortage in Buncombe County price brackets. This shortage is slowing sales for buyers looking in these price ranges and increasing the frequency of competitive bidding situations. The document also provides statistics on home sales, prices, inventory levels and forecasts for the mortgage market in coming quarters.
The document discusses trends in the US housing market. It provides data on pending home sales, home prices, inventory levels, mortgage rates, distressed sales, and foreclosures over recent years. The data shows signs that the housing market has stabilized and prices are rising in most areas. The document also discusses Americans' optimism about homeownership and reasons why people choose to buy homes.
The document summarizes recent trends in the Canadian housing market. Prices are at an all-time high but are expected to increase at a slower rate as tighter mortgage regulations and rising interest rates cause the market to become more balanced. Home sales declined in May from the previous month due to fewer purchases in major cities. New listings also declined slightly for the first time in eight months as the market adjusts to changing conditions. The Canadian economy remains strong overall despite the rate hike by the Bank of Canada.
The upper-end real estate market in St. John's remained relatively consistent in the first quarter of 2013 compared to 2012, with luxury home sales bolstered by population growth. While prices have adjusted slightly due to oversupply, properties listed at fair market value are attracting buyers. The luxury housing market is forecast to keep pace with 2012 levels due to stable economic factors.
Similar to Where Can The Middle Class Actually Afford To Buy Homes? | Jed Kolko (20)
Where Can The Middle Class Actually Afford To Buy Homes? | Jed Kolko
1. Where Can The Middle Class Actually Afford To Buy
Homes? | Jed Kolko
Where can the middle class afford to buy a home today? Affordability has worsened in the past year,
as home prices have climbed faster than incomes and mortgage rates have risen. But compared with
the longer-term past, homeownership still looks relatively affordable: home prices are still
undervalued and mortgage rates remain near historic lows. In most U.S. markets, the majority of
homes for sale are within reach of the middle class, and buying is cheaper than renting in all of the
100 largest metros.
However, in many markets, especially along the coasts, homeownership is out of reach for the
middle class. Even having a college degree is no guarantee that homeownership is
https://www.scribd.com/doc/254746849/California-Housing-Market-Forecast-February-2015 within
reach in the priciest markets. There's no easy way to make housing more affordable, though new
construction can help.
As in our inaugural middle-class affordability report, we calculated the share of for-sale homes on
Trulia that are affordable to a middle-class household, based on whether the total monthly payment -
- mortgage, insurance, and property taxes -- was less than 31% of the metro area's median
household income. (See note below.) Because we define "middle class" separately for each metro
based on the local median household income, our affordability measure takes into account that a
middle-class Click Here income is higher in some markets than in others.
For instance, for a middle-class family in the Denver metro area, where median household income is
just under $62,500, homes priced under $325,000 are within reach based on the 31% guideline. Of
the homes listed for sale in Denver on May 6, 2014, 50% cost less than that -- which means that half
of Denver homes are within reach of the middle class.
2. Middle Class Getting Priced Out of California But Not Midwest
In 80 of the 100 largest U.S. metros, most of the homes for sale today are within reach of the middle
class. In the most affordable housing markets, more than 80% of homes are within reach, with Akron
topping the list at 86%. The 10 most affordable markets include eight in (or near) the Midwest, plus
the southern markets of Columbia, SC, and Little Rock, AR. Five of the top 10 are in Ohio.
Most Affordable Housing Markets for the Middle Class
#
3. U.S. Metro
% of for-sale homes affordable for middle class, May 2014
Median size of affordable for-sale homes, May 2014 (square feet)
% of for-sale homes affordable for middle class, May 2013
1
Akron, OH
86%
1,350
88%
2
Toledo, OH
84%
7. 10
Rochester, NY
81%
1,400
79%
Find out how affordable each of the 100 largest metros are for the Middle Class: Excel and PDF
Seven of the 10 least affordable markets are in California, along with New York, neighboring
Fairfield County, CT, and Honolulu. Only 14% of homes for sale in San Francisco are affordable to
the middle class, even though median household income is higher in San Francisco than almost
anywhere else in the country. In New York and in the coastal markets of southern California - Los
Angeles, Orange County, Ventura County, and San Diego - less than one-third of homes are within
reach of the middle class. Plus, in California especially, the share of homes within reach has fallen
over the past year, as prices in the West have rebounded sharply.
Least Affordable Housing Markets for the Middle Class
#
U.S. Metro
% of for-sale homes affordable for middle class, May 2014
Median size of affordable for-sale homes, May 2014 (square feet)
8. % of for-sale homes affordable for middle class, May 2013
1
San Francisco, CA
14%
1050
20%
2
Los Angeles, CA
23%
1200
31%
3
Orange County, CA
12. 52%
Find out how affordable each of the 100 largest metros are for the Middle Class: Excel and PDF
Within the country's two largest metro areas, there are local sub-markets that are as or more
unaffordable as San Francisco. Within the Los Angeles metro area, just 13% of homes in the San
Gabriel Valley (the 626 area code footprint) are within reach, and just 15% of homes on the west
side (the 310 area code footprint). Within the New York metro area, only 12% of for-sale homes in
Brooklyn are within reach, but Manhattan is in a league by itself, with just a sliver -- 2.3% -- of for-
sale homes affordable to the middle class.
Housing Affordability in Los Angeles Metro Area
Area Code
% of homes for sale within reach of middle class, May 2014 (Trulia)
Pasadena / San Gabriel Valley (626)
13%
Westside LA/ Beaches/ Coast (310/424)
15%
San Fernando Valley (818/747)
17%
Downtown LA (213)
13. 19%
Orange County South (949)
19%
Long Beach (562)
23%
Central LA (323)
25%
Orange County North (714/657)
27%
Riverside (951)
34%
San Bernardino (909)
40%
14. Check out affordability for sub-markets in New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Washington DC, and San
Francisco here.
In Most Markets, Homeownership is Out of Reach for the Less Educated
Even within a local market, affordability depends on where you land in the income distribution; and
how much education you have often shapes your income today and in the future. In fact, your
education level can matter as much as where you live when it comes to whether you can afford to
buy a home.
Nationally, if you randomly picked 10 adults, 4 would have a high school degree or less, 3 would
have completed some college or an associate's degree, 2 would have completed a bachelor's degree,
and 1 would have a graduate degree, give or take a few percentage points (see note below).
Household income is strongly correlated with education. Median household income is $33,500 for
households headed by someone with a high school degree or less, $49,300 with some college or an
associate's degree, $77,500 with a bachelor's degree, and $100,000 with a graduate degree. (Note:
this data reflects the income of the household overall, based on the educational attainment of the
head of household.)
The table below shows affordability for selected housing markets based on the actual median
incomes within each metro at different levels of education. Take the Washington, D.C., metro area as
an example: for a high-school-or-less household, just 23% of homes for sale are affordable, compared
with 75% for a bachelor's-degree household and 83% for a graduate-degree household.
If the head of a household has a high school degree or less, fewer than 10% of homes for sale are
affordable in San Francisco, New York, and Los Angeles. In 72 of the 100 largest metros, fewer than
half of homes for sale are within reach of people with a high school degree or less, including
relatively affordable markets like Phoenix, Chicago, and Atlanta. In the most expensive markets,
many homes are out of reach of households with college or graduate degrees. San Francisco, as
always, is the extreme: only 44% of homes for sale are within reach of graduate-degree households.
U.S. Metro
Overall metro median income
High-school or less
Some college or 2-year degree
21. 91%
95%
Selected large metros. Affordability by educational attainment for all 100 large metros can be
downloaded here.
Why More Homes Aren't Built in Expensive Markets
Why are some metros more affordable than others? Flashback to Econ 101 - it's supply and demand.
Demand is how much people are able and willing to pay to live in a place, which depends on how
desirable and economically productive a place is. Some factors that affect demand - like a good
climate or an educated workforce - change very slowly over time, while others - like an oil boom or
dot-com bust - can change more swiftly.
Housing demand alone does not determine home prices. Supply is crucial, too. Home prices depend
on whether construction keeps up with demand. For the same increase in housing demand, a market
that builds less housing will see bigger price increases than one that builds more housing. Although
the real world is a lot more complicated than that, a simple scatterplot makes the point: expensive
markets build little housing. Every metro where the median price per foot is over $200 has added
housing at an annual rate of no more than 10 new units per 1,000 existing units since 1990.
Conversely, no metro that builds a lot of housing is expensive. Of course, many markets are
inexpensive and build little, like Detroit, Cleveland, St. Louis, and the upstate New York metros of
Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse - all of which have faced long-term economic challenges and
relatively weak housing demand.
22. For America's most expensive housing markets to become significantly more affordable, they would
need either a spectacular drop in demand - a local economic collapse, for example - or a dramatic
increase in housing supply. But in these markets, geography and regulations limit new construction.
Coastal California, south Florida, and parts of the Northeast are hemmed in by oceans, mountains,
or both - unlike large swathes of the Midwest and South. Furthermore, regulations like zoning,
onerous approval processes, and high permitting costs hold back construction. It's complicated to
tease out whether geography or regulations matter more because geographically hemmed-in areas
also tend to be more heavily regulated (see this academic paper for evidence). But short of filling in
San Francisco Bay or paving over the Everglades, local governments have a lot more control over
regulation than geography. So why don't expensive cities relax regulations in order to build more?
The politics of building new housing in expensive markets are tricky. While expanding the housing
supply would improve affordability, new construction can change the character of a place in many
ways: more congestion; a different skyline; an influx of new residents who are richer, poorer, darker,
or whiter than current residents; as well the inconvenience during construction itself. Furthermore,
not everyone wants to improve affordability. Another name for "housing costs" is "property values,"
and current homeowners and landlords want property values to stay high. The beneficiaries of
improved affordability are renters (though less so if they're already protected by rent regulations);
people who are priced out of expensive markets and therefore live elsewhere; and future
generations - who usually have less political power and influence than homeowners and landlords.
Plus, even people who might benefit from greater affordability might care more about preserving the
character of their neighborhood.
23. In all, today's unaffordable markets are likely to stay unaffordable. A collapse in demand is nothing
to wish for; geographic constraints are nearly impossible to change; and strong political forces make
building regulations difficult to relax. Although some expensive metros, like San Francisco, New
York, and Boston, are currently building more housing than in the recent past, and New York's new
mayor is pushing to increase construction further, it would take many years of construction activity
at much higher than historic levels to make today's least affordable metros more within reach of the
middle class.
Note: The total monthly payment includes the mortgage payment assuming a 4.4% 30-year fixed rate
mortgage (3.6% for the 2013 comparison) with 20% down, property taxes for that metro, and
insurance. We chose 31% of income as the affordability cutoff to be consistent with government
guidelines for affordability; both the Federal Housing Administration and the Home Affordable
Modification Program use 31% of pre-tax income going toward monthly housing payments for
assessing whether a home is within reach for a borrower. Note that the 43% debt-to-income rule for
Qualified Mortgages is for total debt, not housing debt. Metro median income is from the 2012
American Community Survey, multiplied by 2013 year-over-year wage growth from the Bureau of
Labor Statistics. We looked at all for-sale homes on Trulia on May 6, 2014, and May 6, 2013. Local
building-permit data are from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Close
Building permits/total housing units: 0.15%
Decline in building permits 2005-2011: -60.29% (11th smallest)
Building permits 2011 YTD: 8,136
Total housing units: 5,567,315
At the beginning of 2011, a number of new, restrictive building codes went into effect in
Pennsylvania. This caused a rush among builders to secure permits, with housing permits increasing
a massive 117.8% between November and December 2010, according to the Philadelphia Federal
Reserve. The state's housing market has not been doing well since. Permits issued from January to
June 2011 fell 16% compared to the same six-month period one year earlier. The national average
for permits issued in the first six months of 2011 compared to the first six months of 2011 is a
decrease of 6%.
Read more at 24/7 Wall St.
Building permits/total housing units: 0.14%
Decline in building permits 2005-2011:
24. Building permits 2011 YTD: -77.09% (11th largest)
Total housing units: 721,830
Maine has seen one of the largest decreases in building permits in the past six years. This is
unsurprising as home sales in general declined substantially. Home sales for June 2011 decreased
21.39% from June 2010, according to the Maine Association of Realtors. The state's median sales
price also decreased 1.37% over this same period. According to numbers from the Census Bureau,
Maine has the highest vacancy rate in the country, reaching 22.8% in 2010. However, this number
also includes empty vacation houses.
Read more at 24/7 Wall St.
Building permits/total housing units: 0.14%
Decline in building permits 2005-2011: -61.85% (12th smallest)
Building permits 2011 YTD: 11,033
Total housing units: 8,108,103
New York State's housing market is among the largest in the country. As a result, the number of
permits is minuscule when compared to the state's total housing units. Although new home sales
decreased in the first half of 2011 from 2010, the number of permits actually increased slightly
during that period, from 10,189 in 2010. This is significantly lower than 2005's 28,921 permits.
Read more at 24/7 Wall St.
Building permits/total housing units: 0.12%
Decline in building permits 2005-2011: 69.55% (24th smallest)
Building permits 2011 YTD: 3,402
Total housing units: 2,808,254
Despite having a healthy economy compared to much of the country, Massachusetts' housing market
25. is beginning to face serious troubles. In June 2011, sales of single-family homes in the state
decreased 23.5% from the year before, reaching the lowest level since 1991, according to the
Warren Group, a New England real estate research firm. With so few home sales, it follows that not
many new homes are being built. Year-to-date, building permits for 2011 are about one quarter of
what they were in 2005.
Read more at 24/7 Wall St.
Building permits/total housing units: 0.12%
Decline in building permits 2005-2011: -76.61% (12th largest)
Building permits 2011 YTD: 6,184
Total housing units: 5,127,508
Ohio has suffered, and continues to suffer, greatly from the housing crisis. Over 8,000 homes were
foreclosed in July 2011, the ninth-largest amount in the country, according to real estate company
RealtyTrac. With such a high foreclosure rate, currently at one in every 608 housing units, housing is
already too inexpensive for people to want to build. Ohio has therefore had one of the greatest
decreases in building permits in the country over the past six years. Median existing home sales are
also down in many areas of the state, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. In
Toledo, prices are down 17% from one year ago, the third largest rate in the country.
Read more at 24/7 Wall St.
Building permits/total housing units: 0.09%
Decline in building permits 2005-2011: -74.06% (14th largest)
Building permits 2011 YTD: 1,403
Total housing units: 1,487,891
Connecticut has had one of the greatest declines in the number of new building permits in the
country. This trend saw a small turnaround in June -- the first monthly year-over-year gain in 2011 in
new construction, according to the Connecticut Department of Economic and Community
Development. However, the Hartford Courant reports that for "the first six months of the year,
residential construction was down 30 percent compared with the same period in 2010." June was
26. also the first increase in home construction in five years.
Read more at 24/7 Wall St.
Building permits/total housing units: 0.09
Decline in building permits 2005-2011: -82.19% (7th largest)
Building permits 2011 YTD: 4,250
Total housing units: 4,532,233
Michigan is one of the states that has suffered the most from the recession. The state's
unemployment rate peaked around 15% in 2010. It is now at 10.5%, which is still significantly higher
than the national average of 9.2%. The state has a vacancy rate of just under 15%, which is one of
the highest in the country. New building permits have also decreased by over 80% since 2005, also
one of the highest rates in Encinitas real estate broker the country. The state may now be more
focused on tearing down old buildings than building new ones.
Read more at 24/7 Wall St.
Building permits/total housing units: 0.09%
Decline in building permits 2005-2011: -84.18% (3rd largest)
Building permits 2011 YTD: 4,897
Total housing units: 5,296,715
Illinois has seen an almost 85% decrease in new housing permits since 2005. This is the third largest
drop in the country. There are a number of initiatives being made across the state to improve the
housing markets. In Chicago, for instance, Mayor Emanuel has made a number of changes to
increase the speed with which building permits are issued. Additionally, a "Micro-Market Recovery
Program" has been introduced to slow the city's foreclosure rate.
Read more at 24/7 Wall St.
27. Building permits/total housing units: 0.09%
Decline in building permits 2005-2011: -72.71% (17th largest)
Building permits 2011 YTD: 774
Total housing units: 881,917
West Virginia's decline in building permits has slowed to almost a crawl. In the first six months of
2005 the state issued almost 3,000 permits. For the first half of 2011, that amount decreased to 774.
If every permit were to result in a new housing structure, those homes would represent less than
0.1% of the total housing units in the state. Despite all this, construction is one area that is
benefiting the state. According to the organization WorkForce West Virginia, 700 construction jobs
were added in-state this past July -- the largest amount of jobs added in the private sector.
Read more at 24/7 Wall St.
Building permits/total housing units: 0.07%
Decline in building permits 2005-2011: -70.81% (22nd largest)
Building permits 2011 YTD: 312
Total housing units: 463,388
Foreclosure filings increased 4% in Rhode Island from the first six months of 2010 to the first six
months of 2011, according to RealtyTrac. Foreclosures dropped by 29% for that same period on the
national level. Rhode Island home sales decreased 20% from one year ago in the second-quarter,
according to the Rhode Island Association of Realtors. Additionally, median home prices have
dropped 2%. These numbers indicate that Rhode Island's housing market is not recovering at the
same pace as the majority of the country. For this first six months of this year, the state has issued a
mere 312 building permits, the smallest number in the country.
Read more at 24/7 Wall St.
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