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When will it be done? - Agile Camp Chicago
- 1. When will it be done? #AgileCamp2019 AgileCamp@GoAgileCamp @danilog0611 danilo.garcia@objective.com.br Danilo Garcia, Kanban Coach, Objective Solutions
- 2. 2 • 10 yrs + working with Software Development • 6 yrs + working with Agile development • Speaker, Kanban Coach and Trainer
- 3. 3 Context • Project for a big bank • Deadline in 6 months • Thousands of dollars in fine Predictability and the ability to forecast early is key!
- 4. 4 Systems Thinking "A system is an interconnected set of elements that is coherently organized in a way that achieves something." - Donella Meadows
- 5. 5 Little’s Law and its assumptions
- 6. 6 Predictability Predictability is the degree of confidence which we can correctly predict a future state of a system/process.
- 8. Define the system Backlog Structure Variability
- 9. 9 Let’s try this crazy idea Stabilize and make the system predictable
- 12. 12 Variability
- 14. 14 • Cycle Time (CT) • Working in Progress (WIP) • Throughput (TH) All 3 must be measure in a consistent way 1
- 15. 15
- 16. 16 The avg Arrival rate should equal the avg Departure rate2 5
- 17. 17 The avg Arrival rate should equal the avg Departure rate2
- 18. 18 3 All work that is started will eventually be completed and exit the system
- 19. 19 3 All work that is started will eventually be completed and exit the system
- 20. 20 4 The amount of WIP should be roughly the same at the beginning and at the end of time interval chosen FIFO queue FIFO queue
- 21. 21 4 The amount of WIP should be roughly the same at the beginning and at the end of time interval chosen
- 22. 22 5 The average WIP age is neither decreasing or increasing
- 23. “The prerequisite for meaningful forecasts is a stable system, and that is a system in which the Work in Progress is limited.” Klaus Leopold
- 27. 27 Monte Carlo Simulations • Remaining Backlog • Backlog Growth rate • Class of services • Work Item Types Use simulations to understand different possibilities
- 28. Forecasting is about asking the right question. Predictability is the degree of confidence we can answer it.
- 29. How to use all this tomorrow? 1. Define your system 2. Measure cycle time (CT), Throughput (TH) and Working in Progress (WIP) 3. Limit your working in progress (WIP) 4. Use Monte Carlo Simulation 5. Rinse and repeat everyday
- 31. References Vacanti, Daniel (2015) “Actionable Agile Metrics for Predictability: An Introduction”. https://www.amazon.com/Actionable-Agile-Metrics-Predictability-Introduction/dp/098643633X Magennis, Troy (2014) “The Economic Impact of Software Development Process Choice – Cycle-time Analysis and Monte Carlo Simulation”. http://focusedobjective.com/paper-the-economic-impact-of-software-development-process-choice- cycle-time-analysis-and-monte-carlo-simulation-results/ Leopold, Klaus (2017) “Practical Kanban: From Team Focus to Creating Value”. https://www.amazon.com/Practical-Kanban-Focus-Creating-Value-ebook/dp/B077RZ2JNS Meadows, Donella (2008). “Thinking in Systems: A Primer” https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Systems-Donella-H-Meadows/dp/1603580557 Anderson, D. J. (2010). Kanban: Successful Evolutionary Change for Your Technology Business. Sequim: Blue Hole Press. http://www.djaa.com/kanban-successful-evolutionary-change-your-technology-business-0 Little’s Law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little%27s_law Central Limit Theorem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_limit_theorem