Blog – Global Economy – March 2021 1. China/GDP - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-07/why-china-can-t-end-its-romance-with-gdp-growth-target 2. USA/GDP - https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/02/10percent-gdp-growth-the-us-economy-is-on-fire-and-is-about-to-get-stoked-even-more.html 3. Canada / GDP - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/frankly-stunning-gdp-growth-puts-bank-of-canada-in-the-hot-seat-1.1570915 4. Geo-political risks - https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/risk/our-insights/covid-19-implications-for-business 5. Inflation - https://www.livemint.com/news/world/inflation-is-already-creeping-into-some-corners-of-the-world-11615508051827.html 6. Global Protectionism - https://www.arabnews.com/node/1292551/business-economy 7. Supply Chain - https://blog.procurify.com/2021/03/02/4-major-issues-facing-your-supply-chain-manager/ 8. Plans / Supply Chain - https://www.lmcins.com/blog/supply-chain-disruption-lessons-from-pandemic 9. Debt / Defaults - https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/global-debt-crisis-unlikely-in-near-term-despite-more-defaults-sp/articleshow/81445995.cms 10. Mining / Risks - https://www.miningglobal.com/top10/top-10-business-risks-and-opportunities-mining-2021/geopolitics

1. • Paul Young CPA CGA
• March 14, 2021
WHAT’S NEXT
FOR THE
WORLD
ECONOMY

2. Paul Young - Bio
• CPA, CGA
• Academia (PF1, FA4 and MS2)
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Supply Chain Management
Contact information:
Paul_Young_CGA@Hotmail.com

3. Agenda
• GDP / Growth
• Commodities
• Stock Market – December 2020 vs December 2019
• Geopolitical Risks
• Unemployment Rates
• Employment – Canada vs USA
• Growth Areas
• COVID19/Deficit spending
• Debt
• Infrastructure
• Green Economy
• Job Quality Crisis
• Trade and Protectionism
• Audit Committee and Risk
• eCommerce
• Housing / Affordability
• Throne Speech/Canada
• 2020 USA Election
• Supply Chain
• What’s next?

4. GDP / Growth
Source - https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications.html or
https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.global-
outlook-and-forecast-tables.scotiabank's-forecast-tables.2020.december-4--2020.html

5. G7 and GDP
Source – BNS and Moody's

6. GDP
Source - https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2021/02/stronger-canadian-dollar-edging-canada-into-8th-place-in-world-
gdp.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+blogspot%2Fadvancednano+%28nextbigfuture%29 or https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/CADUSD/

7. Commodities
Source – BNS

8. Stock Market - USA

9. Geopolitical Risks
• Geopolitical events are having bigger hit on both the private and public sector
• Eco-Terrorism - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/the-threat-of-ecoterrorism
• Risk Factors - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/understanding-risks-as-part-of-
development-risk-management-best-practices
• Race for innovation - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/path-to-innovation-for-canada
• 6G - Blog - Dynamically Programmable Wireless 6G - https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/blog-dynamically-programmable-wireless-6g-
paul-young/?published=t
Source - https://www.ey.com/en_gl/geostrategy/what-elevated-levels-of-political-risk-mean-for-
business-in-2021

10. Unemployment Rates
Source - https://www.miragenews.com/unemployment-rates-oecd-updated-9-december/ or
http://www.oecd.org/sdd/labour-stats/unemployment-rates-oecd-update-january-2021.htm or
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02800/

11. USA vs Canada Employment
Source - https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/eed7db1e-ea7c-49e6-8c1f-911fb9611e74/ and
https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/ce43634c-5c0f-42f8-9b43-fa8683f9237e/

12. Growth Areas
Source - https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/technology/the-top-global-trends-generating-growth-opportunities-from-covid-19-261195/
• More support for small businesses including startups -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/survival-or-
collapse-small-business
• Technology sector -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-better-
support-the-technological-sector
• Automation -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/whats-next-for-
automation-238371946
• Vertical farming -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/farming-in-
canada-august-2020
• Fish and other farming techniques -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/aquaculture-
fish-farming-and-harvesting-analysis
• Technology and the Environment -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/climate-
change-what-can-be-done
• 3D Printing -
https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/3d-printing-
what-is-next-january-2021

13. COVID19 / Deficit Spending
Source - https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/imf-and-covid19/Policy-Responses-to-COVID-19 or
https://www.csis.org/analysis/breaking-down-g20-covid-19-fiscal-response-may-2020-update
• Countries need to start pulling back their deficit spending
as part of the recovery
• There should be focus on many areas like getting goods to
market - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-
best-to-get-goods-to-market and reforming of government
- https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/analysis-
efficiency-and-effective-government-canada-and-the-
world
• Programs that supported income loss should be scale
back as part of supporting re-entry back into workforce -
https://globalnews.ca/news/7186683/quebec-business-
owner-workers-cerb/
• More emphasis will be required on training and education
- https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/human-
capital-management-skills-and-education
• IMF - https://in.reuters.com/article/us-imf-economy/imf-
tells-g20-countries-to-keep-spending-on-covid-19-crisis-
idUSKBN27I1X7

14. COVID19 – Vaccine Rollout
Source - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-vaccination-doses-per-
capita?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=latest&region=World
• Vaccine Tracker - https://www.raps.org/news-
and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-
vaccine-tracker
• Expansion of manufacturing -
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021
/01/14/covid-vaccine-supply/
• Vaccinations -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/geo
political-events-management-of-a-crisis-
canada

15. Debt
• Consumer, government and business debt levels could impact the recover
due to cash flow issues.
Blog:
• In the past, there have been concerns about debt, especially if interest rates
were to rise. Interest rates are still an issue. The bigger issue is cash flow
with govt, business, and personal. Sales and wages could see significant
shrinkage as part of the COVID19 recovery.
• My latest work on debt - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/debt-issues-
global-debt-crisis-analysis-and-commentary-243199347

16. Infrastructure
• Countries around the world can help with the post recovery by
investing in infrastructure
Blog:
• “Two critical elements in analyzing infrastructure projects are often
overlooked: the true cost of capital and long-term maintenance
expenses.” https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-
infrastructure-analysis-of-policy
• Re-setting infrastructure spending -
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/capital-projects-and-
infrastructure/our-insights/resetting-capital-spending-in-the-wake-of-
covid-19

17. Throne Speech / Canada
@JustinTrudeau your statements yesterday in the house on your throne speech were not back up with facts. The reality
is your govt has failed to deliver on your key 2015 election platform as well as Liberals promised things since 1995.
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/what-is-next-for-canada-throne-speech-september-23-2020

18. United States / Election 2020
United States has many issues facing their country
- Income inequality
- Job Quality
- Tax fairness
- Regional disparity
- Economic growth
- Broken legal system
- Broken education and healthcare system
- Efficient and Effective government
- The international role of the United Stats
- https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/fiscal-and-economic-management-state-and-local-government-united-states and
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/whats-next-for-united-states-september-2020 or
https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/key-macro-and-micro-indicators-united-states-november-2020-and-october-2020

19. Green Economy
Source - https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/06/global-clean-energy-investment-research/
• Better balanced between the environment and the
economy -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-
global-emissions-and-climate-change
• Cost of electricity is becoming a big issue for
countries
• https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/repo
rt-electricity-analysis-canada-and-the-world
• Circular Economy –
• Tougher environmental laws are required for
waste management
• https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/
how-to-best-support-a-circular-economy
• Green Economy and Emissions
• Many govts around the world are pushing the
green economy as part of the post-covid19
recovery -
http://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/en/themes/g
reen-recovery or
https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/glo
bal-emissions-and-climate-change-canada-and-
the-world

20. Job Crisis
• Canada and Job Quality -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-and-youth-
employment-analysis-and-commentary or
https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/wages-and-employment-
canada-october-2020
• USA and Job Quality - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-
barkin/barkin-u-s-challenge-is-finding-jobs-for-last-5-displaced-by-crisis-
bbg-idUSKBN26L2J0
• World Job Crisis -
https://hr.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/trends/global-
employment-crisis-deepening-equivalent-of-400-million-jobs-lost-
un/76722399

21. Trade and Protectionism
https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/exporting-and-importing/trade-body-rules-eu-can-put-tariffs-on-us4b-of-
u-s-goods-262170/
• “International arbitrators said Oct. 13 that the European Union can impose tariffs and other penalties on up to
US$4 billion worth of U.S. goods and services over illegal American support for plane maker Boeing. The move further
sours transatlantic ties at a time when the coronavirus has doused trade and savaged economies.”
• More work needs to be done by all countries to fix trade related issues
• Canada and Trade - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/merchandise-trade-canada-august-2020
• USA and Trade - https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3105354/us-election-chinas-
trade-gap-united-states-was-43-cent-bigger
• China and Trade - https://www.npr.org/2020/11/17/935322859/asia-pacific-allies-sign-huge-trade-deal-
with-china-while-u-s-sits-it-out
• Reforming the WTO - https://www.chinabusinessreview.com/competing-wto-reform-agendas-and-the-
contest-for-the-next-director-general/
• Here is my work on WTO and Trade Policies - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/is-the-world-heading-to-
more-protectionism-november-2017

22. Audit Committees and Risk Mitigation
Audit committees will have fuller plates than usual in the coming year, according to Big Four firm KPMG, managing agendas packed with new risk
management responsibilities amid the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic and other crises of 2020.
In a recent report, KPMG’s Board Leadership center identified seven key issues that audit committees will be grappling with. To start, the report
noted than more than 60 percent of audit committee members surveyed said that COVID-19 has prompted them to reassess the scope of their
agenda and their risk management responsibilities.
“Keeping the audit committee’s agenda focused will require vigilance,” the report noted. “Virtually all companies will continue to deal with
significant disruption and uncertainty … . Does the audit committee have the time and expertise to oversee the major risks now on its plate?”
Top 7 Risk Areas
1. Look at Audit Committee Agenda and workload
2. Monitor the financial reporting & disclosure impacts of COVID-19 on the company’s filings
3. Reinforce audit quality & understand the impact of COVID-19 on the external audit process
4. Work with management to reassess & and oversee the scope & quality of the company’s ESG/Sustainability reports & disclosures
5. Understand how technology is impacting the finance organization’s talent, efficiency, and value-add
6. Help ensure that internal audit remains focused on the critical risks including risks posed by COVOD19 and other geo-political events
7. Sharpen the focus on the company’s ethics, compliance, and whistle-blower programs, recognizing the increased pressure on employees
Here is my blog on how to streamline reporting including mitigation of risk - https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/covid-
other-geo-political-disclosures-extra-risks-top-paul-young/?published=t

23. eCommerce
1. Delivery becomes the new normal - Delivery services have become all the rage. The likes of Uber Eats, GrubHub and Instacart have fundamentally
changed the way people get restaurant food or receive grocery store deliveries
2. Alternative business models ring up gains - Once upon a time, retailers sold products to customers. But digital technology is driving fundamental
changes to the old-fashioned transactional model and making consumers more comfortable with paying for value over time. A growing array of brands
are making products available on a subscription basis. Some retailers are exploring ways to use things like smart speakers and IoT to replenish items
automatically.
3. Fulfillment hubs eclipse storefronts - Shifts in consumer behavior will have repercussions in 2021. As leased storefronts in malls underperform due to a
lack of foot traffic, retailers are looking to convert them into fulfillment hubs. There’s remarkable synergy in using these spaces for ecommerce—in
some cases, transforming them into mini-distribution centers—particularly when paired with last-mile delivery services. Amazon has already begun to
eye this model to expand its footprint and same-day delivery network further. It has reportedly engaged in talks with mall operators to take over empty
space as retailers like Sears and J.C. Penney vacate
4. New store designs appear - Despite a massive shift to ecommerce, physical stores are not going away anytime soon. They are just going through a
corresponding transformation. Several prominent retailers focus on blending online and in-store shopping, emphasizing creating a more engaging and
socially distanced shopping experience. For instance, Walmart recently grabbed headlines when it announced that it would overhaul 200 of its
supercenters into airport-inspired stores, complete with more prominent signage, contactless checkout, and other innovations.
5. Online gets personal - Video calls have already gone mainstream in the business world. People see each other, share screens and exchange information.
Retailers are also beginning to recognize the value of video chat as a consultation and sales tool. Whether a consumer is buying a car, furniture, or
upscale clothing, why not offer an option of connecting to a sales associate or product expert whenever it is convenient? This can be after work, on the
weekend, even late at night.
1. Source - https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/2020/11/05/5-predictions-how-things-will-change-for-retailers-in-2021/
Areas of focus
Omni Channels - https://www.shopify.ca/retail/omnichannel-trends
Sales Tax / eCommerce https://www.avalara.com/us/en/blog/2020/11/rapid-rise-of-online-sales-could-trigger-new-sales-tax-collection-requirements-for-
sellers.html
Here is my work on eCommerce - https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/ecommerce-what-is-next

24. Blog – Housing Affordability
• Housing costs continue to hit household budgets -
https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/canada-food-cost-increase-2021
• More innovation is required to help fix systemic issues facing housing
- https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/real-estatehousing-
market-canada-and-the-united-states-november-2020
• Household affordability – Global Ranking -
https://www.property24.com/articles/global-cost-of-the-property-
market-sa-ranks-as-one-of-the-most-affordable/30044

25. Supply Chain
Chaos/Supply Chain
Shipping container shortages in Asia, traffic jams at ports, limited availability of dockworkers and truck
drivers from Southern California to Singapore, higher shipping prices—all are part of a now-stretched supply
chain due to the pandemic, according to a recent New York Times report. What is the impact on rail?
“‘I’ve never seen anything like this,’” Lars Mikael Jensen, head of Global Ocean Network at A.P. Moller-Maersk,
the world’s largest shipping company, told The New York Times, which included his quote in the headline of a March
7 feature, “‘I’ve Never Seen Anything Like This’: Chaos Strikes Global Shipping.”
https://www.railwayage.com/intermodal/does-chaos-rule-the-global-supply-chain/
My work - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-reshore-supply-chain-management-244371640

26. What’s next
• The world has shown there were issues with their various responses to pandemic. All levels of government should have audited crisis and risk
management reports - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/crisis-management-how-best-to-managed-a-crisis
• More balance between the economy and GDP - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/why-do-politicians-play-games-with-the-environment
• More emphasis on supply chain including local solutions - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-best-to-reshore-supply-chains
• Reforming taxation as part of overall tax fairness - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/are-wealth-tax-a-good-idea
• Reforming the size of government – https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-does-the-world-transform-healthcare-238832381
• Stop pushing guarantee income and start working on policies that will support better jobs - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/policy-
analysis-guarantee-income
• Innovative solutions when it comes to upgrading and/or building new infrastructure - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-
infrastructure-analysis-of-policy
• Fixing the systemic issues with housing - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/housing-market-affordability-and-costing-canada-
september-2019
• Reforming global organizations like WHO and WTO - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/reforming-both-the-united-nations-and-who or
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-global-trade-barriers-and-protection-wto-canada-september-2019
• Better urban planning decisions including rural and urban strategies - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/urban-and-rural-planning-
whats-next-236315321
• Working together to reduce geo-political issues - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/dealing-with-geopoltical-risk
• Reforming accounting and audit as way to provide more oversight into financial performance of businesses and the government -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/internal-audit-and-performance-base-auditing
• Vaccine production and distribution - https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html

27. Other Sources
• If you like to learn
more about trade
and/or other
subjects as part of
your professional
learning and
development then
feel free to review
my material on
https://www.udem
y.com/ (search Paul
Young CPA CGA