Summary: Canada’s economic expansion showed signs of moderation in May and June, pulling back from a strong start to the year in the face of high inflation and rising interest rates. Output in June was on track for a small increase of 0.1 per cent after stalling in May, Statistics Canada said on Friday. That follows three months of strong growth between February and April that helped fuel a robust expansion in the second quarter, which the agency estimated at about 4.6 per cent annualized. The results show a picture of an economy that was unscathed from the global slowdown in the first part of the year but may be entering a period of much slower growth. The Bank of Canada has raised its benchmark policy rate by more than two percentage points since March to slow four-decade high inflation, and is expected to continue hiking by at least another half-percentage point at its next policy decision in September Source - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canada-s-economy-stalled-in-may-1.1798830

1. GDP ANALYSIS AND
COMMENTARY – CANADA –
MAY 2022
Paul Young CPA CGA
June 29, 2022

2. PAUL YOUNG - BIO
• CPA, CGA
• Academia (PF1, FA4, FN2, MU1. and MS2)
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Macro/Micro Indicators
• SME – Supply Chain Management
• SME – Data, AI, Security, and Platform
• SME – Internal Controls and Auditing
Contact information email: Paul_Young_CGA@hotmail.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/paul-young-055632b/
SlideShare - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga
Twitter: https://twitter.com/paulyoungcpa
Youtube - https://www.youtube.com/user/youngercga1968/videos

3. AGENDA
• GDP Forecast
• G7 GDP
• Employment Growth vs GDP Growth
• GDP by Industry
• GDP per capita
• Blog / Slow Growth
• Blog / Circular Economy
• Stock Market
• Supply Chain
• Green Inflation with the Circular and Green Economy
• Automation
• Summary
• Education/Skills Development

4. GDP
FORECAST
Source – Scotiabank and
Government of Canada
BNS_GDP
Forecast.pdf

5. G7 GDP GROWTH

6. GDP (LPC VS CPC)

7. GDP BY INDUSTRY
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220429/dq220429a-eng.htm
GDP Sector -
Canada.pdf

8. GDP BY INDUSTRY
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220429/dq220429a-eng.htm

9. GDP BY INDUSTRY
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220429/dq220429a-eng.htm

10. PER CAPITA INCOME / CANADA
GDP by inccome and
Expense - March 2-22.pdf

11. BLOG – SLOW GROWTH
• Canada’s economy went from 3% in 2017 to 1.9% in 2019. The USA economy grew at 2.2% in 2019.
• Canada took $1B surplus YTD Nov/15 and turned that into 15B+ deficit for growth on average of 2.0%. The CPC
were averaging 2.3% growth post-2009 recession.
• Goods-service sector lags the service sector in terms of job growth
• All levels of government have not prioritized the supply chain including making key products strategic to the
health of the economy - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-reshore-supply-chain-management
Here is my previous work on the economy:
• 2016 https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2016-november-2016-gdp-gross-domestic-product-canada
• 2018 https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/gdp-canada-the-real-truth
• Oct/19 - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/global-growth-and-the-major-issues-facing-global-gdp
• Dec/20 https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/scorecard-and-gdp-canada-december-2020-and-november-2020
• Pandemic
• https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-best-to-managed-a-pandemic-february-14-2021

12. CIRCULAR ECONOMY AND THE
ENVIRONMENT
Here is a brief look at the circular economy. Data, AI, security, and platform can play a key role in
supporting the low-carbon economy. https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-maximized-
the-circular-economy-249424158

13. CANADA AND STOCK MARKET
PRESENTATION TITLE 13
Bear in Mind.pdf

14. BANK OF CANADA / MONETARY POLICIES
@cafreeland @FP_Champagne can you tell Canadians what fundamentals are strong for CAN? It is not innovation
spending or FDI spending or productivity improvement or affordable housing. BTW: Your so call super clusters have
been a failure!
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/bank-of-canada-what-is-next-for-monetary-policies-june-2022pptx

15. KEY COST DRIVERS

16. SUPPLY CHAIN
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-reshore-supply-chain-and-build-a-resilient-supply-chain-251040548
Farmers are seeing higher input costs
CAN trails countries like AUS in in terms of developing natural resources in a sustainable way
Food processors are struggling with labor shortages.
USA is becoming a world leader in LNG

17. SUMMARY
PRESENTATION TITLE 17
Summary
• Concerns over housing debt and affordable housing are driving down markets
• Access to critical metals has become a growing concerns for countries trying to shift to cleaner economic policies
• Lack of focus on systemic issues with inflation
• Supply chain disruptions continue to plague global supply chains
• High inflation is challenge for global central banks
• Threat of recession continues to rise each week
• Bear market could lead to issues with pension solvency

18. AUTOMATION
Frost & Sullivan’s recent analysis finds that Internet of Things (IoT) adoption is growing in India. Backed by strong
connectivity and coverage, rising internet penetration, a surge in smart applications adoption, new business models,
and government initiatives such as smart city projects, the Indian IoT market is expected to reach $9.28 billion by
2025 from $4.98 billion in 2020. Pandemic-triggered changes in enterprise behavior and verticals’ focus on
automation are driving the market.
https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/manufacturing/pandemic-accelerated-digital-transformation-and-
adoption-of-automation-fuel-global-iot-market-277565/
India along with other countries will continue to adopt IoT as part of 5G network expansion!
This ties nicely into my work on Industry 4.0 - https://ibm.box.com/s/rsp6p9tez8uru9fo0wu5d13bxt7rtrr0

19. GREEN INFLATION AND THE CIRCULAR AND GREEN ECONOMY
I have written many presentations and blogs on the circular and green economies. My biggest frustration is that policy focus
has been to narrow in areas of carbon tax and more regulations. The main drivers of environment are land, water, forest
management, air quality, and waste management. Technology can play a role with protecting the environment without taxing
and overregulating the economy to death. We need to protect the environment while growing an inclusive economy.
I believe more focus should be on the tax act, R&D, strategic partnerships, standardization of ESG reporting, risk, and crisis
management, reforming the WTO, and better urban and rural planning. Countries that are highest polluters should be forced
to change their ways!
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/protecting-the-environment-through-proper-policies-relate-to-green-and-
circular-economy

20. SUMMARY
• Canada had a structural deficit pre-covid 19 of $15B - https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/canada-pms-deal-with-
opposition-party-raises-deficit-inflation-alarm-bells and https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-fiscal-
management-deficit-and-debt-january-2022pptx
• Trudeau promised a thriving economy that would leave no one behind. That has not been the case as more and more
Canadians are struggling with high household debt - https://www.mpamag.com/ca/news/general/statcan-household-
mortgage-debt-continues-to-mount/399682 and middle class - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/did-justin-
trudeau-support-the-middle-class-in-canadapptx
• Trudeau move Canada GDP to debt driven through higher real estate and public spending -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/search_my_uploads?type=&new=&q=GDP
• Trudeau policies did little to improve competitiveness - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-improve-
canada-global-competitiveness-251338416
Blog – May 2022 – GDP by Sector – Canada
GDP Sector -
Canada.pdf
BNS_GDP
For ecas t.pdf
Summary:
Canada’s economic expansion showed signs of moderation in May and June, pulling back from a
strong start to the year in the face of high inflation and rising interest rates.
Output in June was on track for a small increase of 0.1 per cent after stalling in May, Statistics
Canada said on Friday. That follows three months of strong growth between February and April
that helped fuel a robust expansion in the second quarter, which the agency estimated at about
4.6 per cent annualized.
The results show a picture of an economy that was unscathed from the global slowdown in the
first part of the year but may be entering a period of much slower growth.
The Bank of Canada has raised its benchmark policy rate by more than two percentage points
since March to slow four-decade high inflation, and is expected to continue hiking by at least
another half-percentage point at its next policy decision in September
Source - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canada-s-economy-stalled-in-may-1.1798830
GDP Analys is and
Commentar y - Canada - May 2022 - Copy.pptx
Canada Q2
annualized GDP mos t likely gr ew 4.6_, higher than BoC for ecas t Reuter s - Copy.pdf
Enbr idge to Take 30_
Stake in Canadian LNG Pr oject - Mar ketWatch - Copy.pdf
CER pr ovides nar r ow
view of Canada’s oil pr oduction futur e - Copy.pdf
Canadian fer tilizer
ban explained. Ar e Dutch like pr otes ts coming - Copy.pdf
Tor onto r ents s oar
20_ to r ecor d as mar ket tightens Financial Pos t - Copy.pdf
Higher pr ices for
young people have differ ent cons equences - Eminetr a Canada - Copy.pdf
Concer ns about
economic gr owth weigh on s econd half of 2022 Advis or 's Edge - Copy.pdf
The r is ing pr ice of
bacon (and other foods ) What you need to know about inflation Pos ts .pdf
The r is ing pr ice of
bacon (and other foods ) What you need to know about inflation Pos ts - Copy.pdf
Canada job vacancies
climb to r ecor d, s ignalling inflation pr es s ur e Financial Pos t.pdf
Canada's economy is
los ing momentum - BNN Bloomber g.pdf
1. GDP / Canada - https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canada-q2-annualized-gdp-most-
likely-grew-46-higher-than-boc-forecast-2022-07-29/
2. Canada and LNG - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/enbridge-to-take-30-stake-in-canadian-
lng-project-271659096375?mod=newsviewer_click
3. Canada oil - https://pemedianetwork.com/petroleum-economist/articles/upstream/2021/cer-
provides-narrow-view-of-canada-s-oil-production-future
4. Farmers / Canada - https://equity.guru/2022/07/29/canadian-fertilizer-ban-explained-are-
farmer-protests-coming/
5. Housing https://financialpost.com/real-estate/toronto-rents-soar-20-to-record-amid-high-
demand-fewer-listings
6. Inflation - https://eminetracanada.com/higher-prices-for-young-people-have-different-
consequences/602603/

21. TRAINING AND DEVELOPMENT
• If you like to learn more
about trade and/or other
subjects as part of your
professional learning, and
development then feel
free to review my material
on
https://www.udemy.com/
(search Paul Young CPA
CGA)
• These subjects address
how to fixed issues with
housing and/or systemic
issues related to economy
including government
policies