Africa as future world food basket

1. Africa’s potential to be
the world food basket
World Future Society Conference
Cape Town 2010

2. THE “GOING HOME” SHIFT…
Talk will be divided in 3 broad categories
– that we can all relate to:

3. SEX

4. DRUGS

5. ROCK & ROLL

6. UN GLOBAL POPULATION
SCENARIO
REGION 2007 (MILLION) 2050 % CHANGE
• World 6,671 9,191 (can be as + 38 %
high as 10,600
• Africa 965 1,998 +107 %
• Asia 4,030 5,266 + 31 %
• South America 572 769 + 34 %
• North America 339 445 + 31 %
• Europe 731 664 - 9%

7. Global Shift in Consumption
• Rapid Urbanization
• Reduction of poverty
• < $2day – basic carb intake not met
• $2-$10 – more protein is consumed
• >$10 – demand shifts to more value added products
• World Bank forecast
– People earning > $16 000year
• Current 352 M
• 2,1 Billion by 2050
• 7 X increase in protein eaters

8. • Increased protein
consumption largest driver
of demand in coming
decades
• Production of 1kg protein
on average requires 4 kg
grain
• 7 X increase in protein will
cause a 7 X 4 increase in
grain consumption = 28 X
increase grain demand.

9. Food demand is estimated to
double by 2050

10. DRUGS
• To meet global demand increase will require a “second
green revolution”
• Challenge
– 37% population increase
– 28 X more feed grain
• Only 12% of global agricultural land not being utilized
(rainforests excluded)
• Africa – holds bulk of this unutilized land
• Agriculture uses 70% of world water resources
• GM holds greatest potential to solve(resistance exists)

11. Utilize unutilized resources
first.

12. Rock & Roll

13. Africa at a Glance
COUNTRY Total Arable Arable Irrigated % Arable Renewable
Area km² Land Area km² area Km² irrigated Water km³
South Africa 1,214,470 12.1% 146,950.87 14,980 10.19% 50
Angola 1,246,700 2.7% 33,037.5 800 2.42% 187
DRC 2,267,048 2.9% 64,837.57 110 0.17 1283
Africa (Sub- 14,690,589 8.2% 1,198,411 49,340 4.12%
Sahara)

14. Africa’s irrigation Potential
• South Africa has some of the lowest renewable
water resources in Africa
• Yet it uses it very well.
• South Africa as benchmark to calculate
“theoretical irrigation potential” of Sub-Sahara
Africa
• Potential = 561 326.51 km² of additional irrigation
possible
• Not including areas where irrigation is not
necessary

15. Africa holds the key to
solving any future global food
crisis
Land Water

16. Why is Africa not taking its
rightful place as global food
producer ?
• Subsistence farming –
deeply rooted in culture
• Political instability &
corruption (Perceived risk)
• Lack of Infrastructure
• Economies of scale –
creating critical mass in
low margin environment
• Funding
• Land ownership

17. Poverty Reduction
• Africa faces the
biggest poverty
challenge of all
continents
• 107% increase in
population
• Agriculture by default
deals with poverty at
its root.
• Food security major
risk

18. The world is interested in
Africa

19. A very scarce resource
• “We think now is an
excellent point of entry
for taking a long term
position in agriculture
– Lord Jacob
Rothschild, Fortune
Magazine.
• Korea – Madagascar
• America - Sudan

20. 5 Strategic Action Points
• A realization of the magnitude of the crisis
facing world – specifically Africa
• Infrastructure challenges
• Funding mechanism to deal with perceived
risk vs. long term investment.
• Gaining critical mass in global commercial
agriculture
• Cohesive execution of an African
agricultural policy

21. South Africa’s role in an
African green revolution.
• South African farmers are on par with their
counterparts in the USA, Chile & Israel.
• Adverse climate limited water resources
• Furthest from international markets
• Provide valuable knowledge into Africa
• “Our strategy is to support farmers in a
larger African context – in line with our
business expansion goals.” The Thinker,
March 2010. Minister Tina Joemat
Pettersson

22. Africa holds the key to solving
any future global food crisis