Warming of climate in Sverdlovsk region
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This document analyzes possible evidence of climate change in the Sverdlovsk region of Russia. It examines trends in average annual temperature, which has shown a weak increase, as well as January temperatures, snow cover thickness, relative humidity, and river discharge levels over the past 80 years. One clear trend is that the duration of the heating period in Yekaterinburg has decreased by 12 days while average temperatures have increased by 1.1 degrees Celsius from 1962 to 2012. However, the document concludes that the wavy nature of the data does not allow for clear trends or predictions about the region's future climate to be made.
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Warming of climate in Sverdlovsk region
- 1. Possible evidentiary of climate change in Sverdlovsk region Silin V.E. Russia, Yekaterinburg v.e.silin@urfu.ru
- 2. Climate of Sverdlovsk region Latitude length of the region is more than 600 km and differences in relief are cause a variety of climatic conditions. Continental climate of the Ural plains increases from Northwest to Southeast. Average January temperature increases from -20°C in the North to -16°C in the South. Average July temperature varies from +16°C in the North to +19°C in the South. The average annual precipitation In the Southeast of the region is 350 to 400 mm, in the North is 500 mm, and exceeds 500-600 mm in the mountains of Southwest.
- 3. Information sources Annual weather database “Climate of Russian cities” A Regional, Electronic, Hydrographic Data Network For the Arctic Region http://atlas- yakutia.ru/weather/climate_russia- III.html http://www.r- arcticnet.sr.unh.edu/v4.0/
- 4. Average annual temperature Weakly pronounced trend towards increasing (see the “envelope” curve – linear filtration based on 2 points). There are no years with average annual temperature below zero after 1972. Before this date, temperature sharply becomes negative approximately ones per ten-twelve years. After the 1972 this effect continuously neglected and curve is smoothened. -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 1934 1938 1942 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 T, OC YEAR
- 5. Wavy dynamic of climatic values Average January temperature 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 HR, % YEAR Average monthly snow cover thickness 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1949 1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 H, CM YEAR Average annual relative humidity of air -28 -26 -24 -22 -20 -18 -16 -14 -12 -10 1934 1938 1942 1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 T, OC YEAR After 70s After 70s After 70s
- 6. Average annual water discharge of rivers 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1896 1901 1906 1911 1916 1921 1926 1931 1936 1941 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 G/Gmax YEAR ISET SINARA SOSVA TURA TAVDA PUSHMA TOBOL LOBVA G, m3/s – average annual water discharge of river Gmax, m3/s – maximum of average annual water discharge of river
- 7. Parameters of heating period in Yekaterinburg Year of revision Duration, days Average temperature, oC Reference 1962 233 -6.5 SNiP II-A.6-62 “Building climatology and geophysics” 1972 228 -6.4 SNiP II-A.6-72 “Building climatology and geophysics” 1982 228 -6.4 SNiP 2.01.01-82 “Building climatology and geophysics” 1999 230 -6.0 SNiP 23-01-99 “Building climatology” 2012 221 -5.4 SP 131.13330.2012 “Building climatology” Duration of heating period decreases during 1962-2012 by 12 days and average temperature increases by 1.1 oC.
- 8. Conclusions All described data may be used to appreciate some evidentiary of climate change in Sverdlovsk region. These data may show relationship between climate change and water balance of Sverdlovsk region. However, wavy and sharp dynamic of described values during period of 80 years does not allow to show clear trends and to make predictions about future of regional climate. Sverdlovsk region probably will return into continental climate with cold winters, and parameters of heating period in Yekaterinburg will follow this trend.