Владимир Корнеев

Climate change implications for river run-off
within eastern Baltic catchment area
Vladimir Korneev
Central Research Institute for Complex Use of Water Resources (CRICUWR),
Minsk, Belarus

The programme of pilot projects on
adaptation to climate change in
transboundary basins under the UNECE
Convention on the Protection and Use of
Transboundary Watercourses and
International Lakes (Water Convention) has
started in 2010
The pilot projects mainly focus on
developing adaptation strategies which lay
the ground for further action.

The Neman River Basin (NRB) territory is characterized by a large
population size, a high concentration of industrial enterprises and
other facilities, including oil/product/gas pipelines, a brisk growth of
the hydropower engineering and agricultural sectors and active use
of water resources.
This will changes in NRB-flow due to climate change resulting
increased risks of dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena,
including rain floods and droughts. The problem of low-water
periods leading to droughts is more relevant for the NRB.
Main aim of the project is to improve integrated river basin
management and transboundary cooperation in times of a changing
climate in the Neman river basin. The project aims to strengthen
the capacity to adapt to climate change of the countries sharing the
Neman river through supporting dialogue and cooperation on the
needed steps to design an adaptation strategy in the transboundary
context. It will aim to reach a common understanding on future
water availability and water use taking into account possible climate
change impacts.

LESSONS LEARNT
Common (Belarus-Lithuania) assessment and forecasting of
meteorological and hydrological characteristics for the
Neman River Basin.
Common understanding of the problems concerning water
resources management with account to climate change and
necessity of cooperation on the basin-wide and regional
levels and implementation of agreed adaptation measures.
Experience in creation of the Informational Platform in
Internet included join basic meteorological and hydrological
data base for assessment and forecast of climate change
(Belarus and Lithuania).

Analysis of changes of meteorological and
hydrological characteristics for the period
from 1961 to 2010

Meteorological and
hydrological data collection

Meteorological and hydrological information which was used:
(daily, monthly, seasonal, annual values)
Analysis period: 1961-2010
Temperature/precipitation:
Data from 23 stations (8 stations in Belarus, 15 stations in Lithuania)
Water discharge:
Data from 25 stations (12 stations in Belarus, 13 stations in
Lithuania)
Additional information necessary for hydrological modeling: wind
speed, humidity, sunshine duration

Assessment of current status of water resources in the Niemen River Basin

Detected changes of meteorological and
hydrological characteristics

Assessment of the change of temperature (0
C) in the Niemen River Basin (1986-2010) - (1961-
1985): on average +0.9 0
C
2.5
2.3
1.4 1.4
0.3
0.2
1.4
0.8
0.1
0.0 0.0
0.6
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
January
February
M
arch
A
pril
M
ay
June
July
A
ugust
Septem
ber
O
ctober
N
ovem
ber
D
ecem
ber
Months(difference,0
C)
Monthly air temperature changes (1986-2010 minus 1961-1985)

Change of annual air temperature (1986-2010 minus 1961-1985)

Change of seasonal air temperature (1986-2010 minus 1961-1985)

Assessment of the change of precipitation (%) in the Niemen River Basin (1986-2010) - (1961-
1985): on average +10.9%
31.6
38.5
18.1
-14.0
1.6
9.4 8.4
11.7
3.2
5.6
-9.3
4.7
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
January
February
M
arch
A
pril
M
ay
June
July
A
ugust
Septem
ber
O
ctober
N
ovem
ber
D
ecem
ber
Months(difference,%)
Monthly precipitation changes (%) (1986-2010 minus 1961-1985)

Change of annual precipitation sum (%) (1986-2010 minus 1961-1985)

Assessment of current status of water resources in the Niemen River Basin
Change of seasonal precipitation sum (%) (1986-2010 minus 1961-1985)

Monthly runoff change (%) (1985-2009 minus 1961-1984)
Assessment of the change of runoff (%) in the Niemen River Basin (1985-2009) - (1961-
1984): average annual +2.7%; minimum (summer-autumn) +7.2%;
minimum (winter) +17.5%; maximum (spring) -27.4%
42.0
44.2
6.7
-19.9
-5.2
2.9
5.9
0.9
5.7
0.4
-1.5
6.9
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
January
February
M
arch
A
pril
M
ay
June
July
A
ugust
Septem
ber
O
ctober
N
ovem
ber
D
ecem
ber
Months(difference,%)

Seasonal runoff change (%) (1985-2009 minus 1961-1984)
Summer-
Autumn
minimum
Winter
minimum
Spring
flood
maximum

 Statistically significant increase in annual, winter and
summer temperature (largest changes were observed in
January);
 Statistically significant increase in winter precipitation;
 Maximum spring flood discharge decreased and the
minimum winter flow increased statistically significant in
large part of territory;
 Peak of spring flood and the dates of minimum winter
flow tends occur earlier in the whole basin area.
The main features of changes

Near-term future (2021-2050) projections

Two greenhouse gas emission scenarios were
used (IPCC-IV):
A1B (relatively high-emission scenario);
B1 (low-emission scenario).
The adjusted climate change forecasts until
2050 elaborated using the results of the CMIP5
multi-model ensemble under the four scenarios
provided in the IPCC-V, 2013)
Climate projections for the whole Neman River Basin was made
with using CCLM model outputs
The regional CCLM model covers a large part of the European territory with a high spatial
resolution (20 km × 20 km).
The regional CCLM model runs are driven
by the initial and boundary conditions of the
Global Circulation Model ECHAM5/MPI-OM.
Realizations of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model
were dynamically downscaled to a smaller grid
using the CCLM model.

Climate projections in the
Neman River basin

The main features of foreseen changes
Mean annual air temperature in the basin territory will increase by
1,7 °C according to A1B scenario and 1,4 according to B1 climate
scenario. For all months of the year the air temperature rise is
projected. The largest changes under both climate scenarios will
likely occur during the cold season of year.
The annual precipitation amount will increase by 73 mm according
to A1B scenario and by 28 mm according to B1 scenario. The largest
positive changes are foreseen for winter and spring according to
A1B scenario, while the most rapid rise are predicted for autumn
according to B1 (negative changes are possible in some months).
Due to cold season air temperature rise and changes in
precipitation composition snow cover parameters should decline in
the future.

CMIP5
RCP 2.6
RCP 4.5
RCP 6.0
RCP 8.5
CCLM
A1B
B1
Temperature
Precipitation
Air temperature and precipitation change forecasts using the
CMIP5 multi-model ensemble (according to IPCC – 2013) and
A1B and B1 scenarios (according to IPCC – 2007)

Most significant air temperature forecast changes, °C
mean for a year mean for winter season
mean for summer season

Most significant precipitation forecast changes, %
for a year for winter season
for summer season

Projections of runoff
changes in the Niemen
River basin
The forecast of runoff change of surface water bodies for a period
from 2021 to 2050 was elaborated using two methodologically
similar hydrological models:
the WatBal model with calculations of the evapotranspiration
and water balance (WatBal model calculations were made by
Lithuanian experts);
the Belarusian model of hydrological-climatic calculations
based on simultaneous solution of equations of water and heat
energy balance (calculations were made by Belarusian experts).

Modeling results show that forecasted runoff changes in the near
term future are similar with observed during the last 50 years.
According modeling results:
 Mean annual runoff will change insignificantly
 The projected maximum spring flood runoff will decrease in the
majority of Neman basin. The decrease of maximum monthly
runoff is likely to be related to warmer winters with more
frequent thaws. The earlier start of spring flood is also very likely.
As the consequence inundation risk will generally decrease in the
major part of the basin.
 Minimum winter flow will increase. It can be related to the earlier
start of spring, increased winter precipitation and increased
frequency of thaws.
 Predicted summer runoff will insignificant increase in northern
part and decrease in the southern part of the basin is modeled.
 Drought probability can increase in the second part of warm
period of year.

Generalized multi-model forecast of annual runoff change

Generalized multi-model forecast of runoff change in winter season

Generalized multi-model forecast of runoff change in summer season

Assesment of the runoff change in the Niemen River Basin on the territory of Belarus tale into account
climate change (A1В scenario) and forecasted change in water use until 2035 y
20.0 22.0
11.9
15.5
34.5
39.8
-13.1 -14.5
-5.2
-12.8
6.1
17.3
-1.6 -1.7 -1.2 -0.6 -1.0 -2.1 -2.7 -2.8 -2.9 -2.1 -1.5 -1.3
18.4
20.3
10.7
14.9
33.5
37.7
-15.8 -17.3
-8.1
-15.0
4.6
15.9
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
January
February
M
arch
A
pril
M
ay
June
July
A
ugust
Septem
ber
O
ctober
N
ovem
ber
D
ecem
ber
change,%
change of natural runoff
change due to water use scenario
total change of runoff
`
Assesment of the runoff change in the the Niemen River Basin on the territory of Belarus tale into
account climate change (В1 scenario) and forecasted change in water use until 2035 y
4.6
9.7 10.5
-5.1
20.3
41.0
-11.5
-14.3
29.4
6.8 6.9
19.1
-1.6 -1.7 -1.2 -0.6 -1.0 -2.1 -2.7 -2.8 -2.9 -2.1 -1.5 -1.3
3.0
8.0 9.3
-5.7
19.2
38.9
-14.2
-17.1
26.4
4.7 5.4
17.8
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
January
February
M
arch
A
pril
M
ay
June
July
A
ugust
Septem
ber
O
ctober
N
ovem
ber
D
ecem
ber
chdnge,%
change of natural runoff
change due to water use scenario
total change of runoff
`

Forecasted water use for the industry of Belarus will
grow by 0.5-2.0% per year in case of optimistic
scenario of economic development which will also
have slight impact on runoff regime (can decrease by
5%) . However, it was determined that the impact of
climate change will be more important on runoff in
the Neman River Basin on the territory of Belarus
(can decrease by 10-15% in summer period) in
comparison with forecasted impact of water use
changes.

ASSESSMENT OF VULNERABILITY OF WATER RESOURCES AND RELATED NATURAL
RESOURCES AND INDUSTRIES TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE NEMAN RIVER BASIN
Vulnerability
low
medium
high
Impact (probability)
low
medium (vulnerable)
high
+
Impact consequences
not very significant
medium
significant
Adaptation potential
low
medium
high
+
+ +
+
-

Possible impacts of
climate change in the
Neman River Basin

Maps of vulnerability to climate change in the Neman River Basin: a - agriculture; b –
forestry; c – industry; d - natural resources (natural ecosystems)
а б
в г

Generalized map of vulnerability to climate change in the Neman River Basin
with account of industries and natural resources

STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK (SFW) FOR
THE NEMAN RIVER BASIN
ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
http://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/env/documents/2016/wat/04Apr_6-
7_Workshop/Strategy_of_Adaptation_to_Climate_Change_RUS_for_print.pdf
https://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/env/documents/2016/wat/04Apr_6-
7_Workshop/Strategy_of_Adaptation_to_Climate_Change_ENG_for_print.pdf

1. General description of the Neman River Basin.
2. Summary of the climate and hydrological characteristics current status and
forecast till 2050.
3. Summary of vulnerability assessment for different types of natural resources:
Surface water resources;
Ground waters;
Forest resources;
Other ecosystems and wetlands;
Fish fauna;
and for different sectors of economy:
Industry;
Energy;
Housing and public utilities;
Agriculture;
Fish industry and fish-breeding;
Legal and institutional aspects of water resources management;
Transport infrastructure, including water transport;
Health of population;
Recreation.
4. List of short-term, medium-term and long-term adaptation measures.
STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK FOR THE NEMAN RIVER BASIN ADAPTATION
TO CLIMATE CHANGE

Details of the proposed measures for basin-scale adaptation
Natural
resources
Adaptation measures
Surface
water
resources
Effective management of water resources and optimization of the water
consumption, including regulation of requirements to agricultural and
urban development activities in the river floodplains in order to reduce the
risk and damage from floods and droughts. Monitoring of a situation in the
basin, including an improvement of the monitoring system for hydrological,
hydrodynamic and hydrochemical regimes as well as automation of the
monitoring points. Organization of information exchange between the
countries on a regular basis. Development of the management plans for
water resources and flood risks across the basin, a regular mapping of the
risk of flooding; the action plans for emergency situations, implementation
of the early warning systems, information distribution (including across the
borders) about the danger of floods, city planning according to flood risk
maps. Reduction of pollution from point and non-point sources. Monitoring
and retrofitting of the hydraulic installations. Rehabilitation of irrigation
and polder systems.
Bank stabilization measures.
Awareness-raising of the population.
Technical re-equipment of hydrologic networks.

Natural
resources
Adaptation measures
Groundwaters Integrated groundwater monitoring.
Evaluation of status of groundwaters and their vulnerability to climate change.
Effective water resources management and optimization of water use, including
regulation of requirements to groundwater intake.
Assessment of interaction between surface and groundwaters, efficient
management of drainage systems.
Forest
resources
Monitoring and analysis of the situation. Implementation of integrated activities
for sustainable forestry, including replacement of the most sensitive species by
more resistant ones.
The transboundary monitoring of infections and parasites.
The melioration and rewaterlogging of forested areas.
Taking forestry engineering actions to protect forests against fires, infections and
pests.
Other
ecosystems and
wetlands
Monitoring and preventing introduced species (invasive species) from propagation,
monitoring of ecosystems and water quality, control over compliance with the
technologies of natural resources management (for example, during development
of peat lands), preservation and expansion of wetlands, including revegetation.
Accounting of basin aspects during implementation of measures aimed at
improving the biodiversity at the regional level (fragmentation prevention).
Fish fauna Restoration of fish fauna and habitats, combating with invasive species, water
protection measures.

Sector of
economy
Adaptation measures
Industry The development of water efficient, water-saving and clean technologies (“green
economy”), the reduction of wastewater discharges and pollutants content in them.
Improvement of economic mechanisms for water supply and sanitation. Awareness-
raising of the population.
Energy Improvement of the engineering projects and the technologies of HPP construction,
updating the rules of HPP maintenance considering the estimated changes in
hydrological regime at the basin level; improvement of the management of releases
from reservoirs and wastewater discharges, the increase in using renewable energy
sources and use of waste for energy production.
Transboundary information exchange.
Housing and
public utilities
Development of the water supply and sanitation systems, in the rural settlements as
well; periodical assessment of groundwater deposits and monitoring (quality and
quantity indicators). Introduction of advanced and upgrading wastewater treatment
technologies.
The reduction of areas of waste disposal by improving the systems of their processing.
Implementation of measures to reduce the losses of water; improvement of the rain
sewerage system.
Agriculture Reduction of pollution from point and non-point sources.
Introduction of effective technologies, including for small farms, soil erosion control.
Replacement of agricultural crops by more productive and resistant varieties (adapted
to the new climate conditions).

Sector of
economy
Adaptation measures
Fish industry
and fish-
breeding
Effective supervision and optimization of water use. Fish fauna monitoring, regulation of
fisheries, the use of possibilities for breeding new species, including the expansion of
artificial reservoirs network and aquaculture growing. Additional technological
measures in Belarus (aeration, increase in flow, chemical methods).
Legal and
institutional
aspects of
water
resources
management
Improvement of the legal and institutional framework of the basin management.
Awareness-raising of population.
Transboundary information exchange.
Transport
infrastructure
, including
water
transport
Adaptation of water transportation to the increased frequency and amplitude of water
level fluctuations, including conducting engineering activities to improve the capacity of
watercourses.
Monitoring and forecast of the dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena.
Introduction of systems to prevent and mitigate emergency consequences.
Improvement of the engineering protective measures to mitigate negative impact of
dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena on road network.
Designing new roads and buildings with account of ongoing climate change, using
construction materials designed for the increased number of cycles of freezing and
thawing.
Health of
population
Improvement of monitoring and control of the surface and groundwater quality,
awareness-raising of population.
Flood forecasting and mitigation of flood damages.
Recreation Maintenance of the tourist and recreational infrastructure ecotourism development.

Transboundary district of the river Neman (Belarus – Lithuania)Transboundary district of the river Neman (Belarus – Lithuania)
Thank you for attentionThank you for attention
https://www2.unece.org/ehlm/platform/display/ClimateChange/Neman

Владимир Корнеев

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