2013 Solar Industry Job Census Briefing
2226 Rayburn House Office Building

Jason Walsh, Senior Advisor
February 11, 2014
Impact of EERE Investments in Solar R&D
Actual vs. Counterfactual Cost
Curves
Counterfactual

Actual V. Counterfactual Reliability
Curves
Actual

Actual

Counterfactua
l

•

EERE’s $3.7B investment in solar photovoltaic R&D from 1975 to 2008 resulted in a
net economic benefit of $15B (2008 dollars) due to module efficiency and
reliability improvements.

•

EERE R&D accelerated solar industry by 12 years

3
First Solar: Driving Innovation in Ohio’s Factories
•

1990s: DOE’s NREL funding led
to boom in start-up thin-film PV
companies.

•

Led to First Solar LLC, now a
leading worldwide PV
manufacturer based in Ohio.

•

2012: First Solar installed its 10
millionth PV module in the 550
MW Desert Sunlight Solar Farm
project in Riverside County,
California

•

4

By 2015, Desert Sunlight Solar
will be one of the two largest
solar PV projects in the world

A First Solar associate handles photovoltaic materials at the company's
Ohio manufacturing plant
Courtesy of First Solar
DOE LPO Launched Utility-Scale PV Market in the U.S.

U.S. Projects Over 100MW

1705 Program Ends

Five LPO Projects
 1510 MW
 $4.6 Billion in Loans
CA

CA

NV

NV
NM

NM

AZ

AZ

Zero
Projects
2010

5

Ten Privately
Financed Projects
 2488 MW

2011

2012

2013

5
Concentrating Solar Power Became a Reality in the U.S.
Solana
Arizona

Ivanpah
California
• Completed in 2014
• 390 MW Concentrated Solar
Project
• $1.6 billion loan guarantee

6

• Completed in 2013 (250 MW)
• ‘Nighttime Solar’ - 6 Hours of
Thermal Energy Storage
• $1.45 billion loan guarantee

Tonopah
Nevada

• 2014 - Expected Completion
(110 MW)
• ‘Nighttime Solar’ - 10 Hours of
Thermal Energy Storage
• $737 million loan guarantee

6
SunShot Utility Scale Progress by Q4 2012
$4.00
Installed System Price ($/WDC)

$3.50

$0.29

$3.00
$2.50

$1.56

$0.13
$0.13

Power Electronics
Balance of Systems
Module

$1.27

$0.06

$2.27/W

$2.00

$1.03

$1.50
$1.00

$1.00/W
$0.18

$1.95

$0.10
$0.40

$0.50
$0.00

7

$3.80/W

Reduction Opportunities
2010 Modeled
System

Reductions by
2013

Power
Electronics

Balance of
Systems

Module

$0.50

SunShot Goal
Largest Cost Reduction Opportunity: Soft Costs
Installed System Price ($/WDC)

LBNL and NREL analyses
show balance of system
costs, or “soft costs”, such
as permitting, installation
and inspection costs

$4.00
$3.50
$3.00
$2.50
$2.00
$1.50
$1.00
$0.50
$0.00

$0.29

$1.56

$0.13
$0.13

Power Electronics
Balance of Systems

$1.27
$0.06

Module
$1.03

$1.00/W

$1.95

$0.18

$0.10
$0.40
$0.50

Source: LBNL, http://emp.lbl.gov/sites/all/files/germanus-pv-price-ppt.pdf; NREL
http://www.nrel.gov/news/press/2012/2038.html

8
Soft Costs Dominating Overall Costs

Balance of system costs account for up to 50%

64% of the cost of a solar installation
 Not decreasing as quickly as equipment costs

9

Source: Second Annual Benchmarking…”, Friedman et al.,
in preparation.
Rooftop Solar Challenge (2011-2013)

• 22 teams, 50 million
people
• Best practices
developed, shared,
and harmonized
• Easier, cheaper, and
one week faster to go
solar on average

10
One week per installation adds up . . .
PV Installed in RSC locales:
Residential: 225 MW

37,960 Residential
Systems

Commercial: 357 MW

=

Which means the RSC
saved Americans from…

Average Business Days
Saved Per Install = 5.1

3,148 Commercial
Systems

Average Business Days
Saved Per Install = 4.1

OVERYEARS OF RED TAPE
~800 10 LIFETIMES SAVED

11
SunShot 2030 Vision: Rapid Solar Deployment

12

Jason Walsh | Solar Jobs Census Briefing

  • 1.
    2013 Solar IndustryJob Census Briefing 2226 Rayburn House Office Building Jason Walsh, Senior Advisor February 11, 2014
  • 3.
    Impact of EEREInvestments in Solar R&D Actual vs. Counterfactual Cost Curves Counterfactual Actual V. Counterfactual Reliability Curves Actual Actual Counterfactua l • EERE’s $3.7B investment in solar photovoltaic R&D from 1975 to 2008 resulted in a net economic benefit of $15B (2008 dollars) due to module efficiency and reliability improvements. • EERE R&D accelerated solar industry by 12 years 3
  • 4.
    First Solar: DrivingInnovation in Ohio’s Factories • 1990s: DOE’s NREL funding led to boom in start-up thin-film PV companies. • Led to First Solar LLC, now a leading worldwide PV manufacturer based in Ohio. • 2012: First Solar installed its 10 millionth PV module in the 550 MW Desert Sunlight Solar Farm project in Riverside County, California • 4 By 2015, Desert Sunlight Solar will be one of the two largest solar PV projects in the world A First Solar associate handles photovoltaic materials at the company's Ohio manufacturing plant Courtesy of First Solar
  • 5.
    DOE LPO LaunchedUtility-Scale PV Market in the U.S. U.S. Projects Over 100MW 1705 Program Ends Five LPO Projects  1510 MW  $4.6 Billion in Loans CA CA NV NV NM NM AZ AZ Zero Projects 2010 5 Ten Privately Financed Projects  2488 MW 2011 2012 2013 5
  • 6.
    Concentrating Solar PowerBecame a Reality in the U.S. Solana Arizona Ivanpah California • Completed in 2014 • 390 MW Concentrated Solar Project • $1.6 billion loan guarantee 6 • Completed in 2013 (250 MW) • ‘Nighttime Solar’ - 6 Hours of Thermal Energy Storage • $1.45 billion loan guarantee Tonopah Nevada • 2014 - Expected Completion (110 MW) • ‘Nighttime Solar’ - 10 Hours of Thermal Energy Storage • $737 million loan guarantee 6
  • 7.
    SunShot Utility ScaleProgress by Q4 2012 $4.00 Installed System Price ($/WDC) $3.50 $0.29 $3.00 $2.50 $1.56 $0.13 $0.13 Power Electronics Balance of Systems Module $1.27 $0.06 $2.27/W $2.00 $1.03 $1.50 $1.00 $1.00/W $0.18 $1.95 $0.10 $0.40 $0.50 $0.00 7 $3.80/W Reduction Opportunities 2010 Modeled System Reductions by 2013 Power Electronics Balance of Systems Module $0.50 SunShot Goal
  • 8.
    Largest Cost ReductionOpportunity: Soft Costs Installed System Price ($/WDC) LBNL and NREL analyses show balance of system costs, or “soft costs”, such as permitting, installation and inspection costs $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 $0.29 $1.56 $0.13 $0.13 Power Electronics Balance of Systems $1.27 $0.06 Module $1.03 $1.00/W $1.95 $0.18 $0.10 $0.40 $0.50 Source: LBNL, http://emp.lbl.gov/sites/all/files/germanus-pv-price-ppt.pdf; NREL http://www.nrel.gov/news/press/2012/2038.html 8
  • 9.
    Soft Costs DominatingOverall Costs Balance of system costs account for up to 50% 64% of the cost of a solar installation  Not decreasing as quickly as equipment costs 9 Source: Second Annual Benchmarking…”, Friedman et al., in preparation.
  • 10.
    Rooftop Solar Challenge(2011-2013) • 22 teams, 50 million people • Best practices developed, shared, and harmonized • Easier, cheaper, and one week faster to go solar on average 10
  • 11.
    One week perinstallation adds up . . . PV Installed in RSC locales: Residential: 225 MW 37,960 Residential Systems Commercial: 357 MW = Which means the RSC saved Americans from… Average Business Days Saved Per Install = 5.1 3,148 Commercial Systems Average Business Days Saved Per Install = 4.1 OVERYEARS OF RED TAPE ~800 10 LIFETIMES SAVED 11
  • 12.
    SunShot 2030 Vision:Rapid Solar Deployment 12