VoteWatch post-elections analysis

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Presentation by Doru Frantescu of VoteWatch Europe at Europe Decides / VoteWatch Europe event on Monday 26 May

The new EP balance of power: policy
implications for next five years
Doru Frantescu, Policy Director and Co-founder, VoteWatch Europe
How did Europe vote… and what does it mean for EU policy?
The Microsoft Centre, Brussels, 26 May 2014

What impact on EP positions
(and EU policy)?
2

3
Impact assessment of EP elections on 2014-19 EU policy
Main outcome
• Less support for strengthening the EU
powers (institutions, agencies, budget);
• but a strong pro-European majority
(‘super-grand’ coalition) stays on.

4
Possible coalitions (%)
Old EP New EP Difference
EPP + S&D + ALDE 72.2 63.5 -8.7
EPP + S&D 61.4 53.1 -8.2
Old EP New EP Difference
EFD + NI + EAF 8.4 16.2 +7.9
ECR + EFD + EAF + NI 15.8 22.5 +6.7
(ECR + EFD + EAF + NI) + GUE 20.4 29.6 +9.2
PRO
ANTI

5
Possible coalitions (%)
Centre-right
Centre-left
Old EP New EP Difference
EPP+ALDE 46.6 38.7 -7.9
EPP+ALDE+ECR 54.0 45.0 -9.0
Old EP New EP Difference
S&D + G/EFA + GUE-NGL 37.6 38.7 +1.2
(S&D + G/EFA + GUE-NGL) + ALDE 48.4 49.1 +0.7

6
Impact assessment of EP elections on 2014-19 EU policy
Possible scenarios
Economy
• Less budget consolidation
• More public spending
• Push for tax harmonization?
• More regulation of the financial sector

7
Impact assessment of EP elections on 2014-19 EU policy
Possible scenarios
Employment
• More social indicators followed through the
European Semester
• Push for re-correlation of salaries with
inflation rather than productivity
• Regulations more labour-oriented (working
time and work conditions)

8
Impact assessment of EP elections on 2014-19 EU policy
Possible scenarios
Trade and internal market
• Lengthier and more difficult negotiations
on TTIP
• More questioning of the strengthening of
internal market for services

9
Impact assessment of EP elections on 2014-19 EU policy
Possible scenarios
Energy
• Nuclear power will continue to be seen as
playing a key role
• Shale gas and oil exploration – EP majority
likely positive
• Support for pan-EU energy infrastructure

10
Impact assessment of EP elections on 2014-19 EU policy
Possible scenarios
Environment
• Step-by-step approach towards C02
reduction and climate targets?
• Re-industrialization? Uncertain

11
Impact assessment of EP elections on 2014-19 EU policy
Possible scenarios
Civil liberties
• More barriers to migration?

Doru Frantescu, Policy Director and Co-founder
doru@votewatcheurope.eu
www.votewatch.eu
@VoteWatchEurope
/VoteWatchEurope

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RFP for Reno's Community Assistance Center

This Is Reno

在线办理美国乔治华盛顿大学毕业证（gwu毕业证书）学历学位证书原版一模一样

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原版一模一样【微信：741003700 】【美国乔治华盛顿大学毕业证（gwu毕业证书）学历学位证书】【微信：741003700 】学位证，留信认证（真实可查，永久存档）offer、雅思、外壳等材料/诚信可靠,可直接看成品样本，帮您解决无法毕业带来的各种难题！外壳，原版制作，诚信可靠，可直接看成品样本。行业标杆！精益求精，诚心合作，真诚制作！多年品质 ,按需精细制作，24小时接单,全套进口原装设备。十五年致力于帮助留学生解决难题，包您满意。本公司拥有海外各大学样板无数，能完美还原海外各大学 Bachelor Diploma degree, Master Degree Diploma 1:1完美还原海外各大学毕业材料上的工艺：水印，阴影底纹，钢印LOGO烫金烫银，LOGO烫金烫银复合重叠。文字图案浮雕、激光镭射、紫外荧光、温感、复印防伪等防伪工艺。材料咨询办理、认证咨询办理请加学历顾问Q/微741003700 留信网认证的作用: 1:该专业认证可证明留学生真实身份 2:同时对留学生所学专业登记给予评定 3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书 4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方 5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息 6:个人职称评审加20分 7:个人信誉贷款加10分 8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才

How To Cultivate Community Affinity Throughout The Generosity Journey

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原版制作(英国Southampton毕业证书)南安普顿大学毕业证录取通知书一模一样

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学校原件一模一样【微信：741003700 】《(英国Southampton毕业证书)南安普顿大学毕业证》【微信：741003700 】学位证，留信认证（真实可查，永久存档）原件一模一样纸张工艺/offer、雅思、外壳等材料/诚信可靠,可直接看成品样本，帮您解决无法毕业带来的各种难题！外壳，原版制作，诚信可靠，可直接看成品样本。行业标杆！精益求精，诚心合作，真诚制作！多年品质 ,按需精细制作，24小时接单,全套进口原装设备。十五年致力于帮助留学生解决难题，包您满意。本公司拥有海外各大学样板无数，能完美还原。 1:1完美还原海外各大学毕业材料上的工艺：水印，阴影底纹，钢印LOGO烫金烫银，LOGO烫金烫银复合重叠。文字图案浮雕、激光镭射、紫外荧光、温感、复印防伪等防伪工艺。材料咨询办理、认证咨询办理请加学历顾问Q/微741003700 【主营项目】一.毕业证【q微741003700】成绩单、使馆认证、教育部认证、雅思托福成绩单、学生卡等！二.真实使馆公证(即留学回国人员证明,不成功不收费) 三.真实教育部学历学位认证（教育部存档！教育部留服网站永久可查）四.办理各国各大学文凭(一对一专业服务,可全程监控跟踪进度) 如果您处于以下几种情况： ◇在校期间，因各种原因未能顺利毕业……拿不到官方毕业证【q/微741003700】 ◇面对父母的压力，希望尽快拿到； ◇不清楚认证流程以及材料该如何准备； ◇回国时间很长，忘记办理； ◇回国马上就要找工作，办给用人单位看； ◇企事业单位必须要求办理的 ◇需要报考公务员、购买免税车、落转户口 ◇申请留学生创业基金留信网认证的作用: 1:该专业认证可证明留学生真实身份 2:同时对留学生所学专业登记给予评定 3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书 4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方 5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息 6:个人职称评审加20分 7:个人信誉贷款加10分 8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才

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VoteWatch post-elections analysis

1. The new EP balance of power: policy implications for next five years Doru Frantescu, Policy Director and Co-founder, VoteWatch Europe How did Europe vote… and what does it mean for EU policy? The Microsoft Centre, Brussels, 26 May 2014

2. What impact on EP positions (and EU policy)? 2

3. 3 Impact assessment of EP elections on 2014-19 EU policy Main outcome • Less support for strengthening the EU powers (institutions, agencies, budget); • but a strong pro-European majority (‘super-grand’ coalition) stays on.

4. 4 Possible coalitions (%) Old EP New EP Difference EPP + S&D + ALDE 72.2 63.5 -8.7 EPP + S&D 61.4 53.1 -8.2 Old EP New EP Difference EFD + NI + EAF 8.4 16.2 +7.9 ECR + EFD + EAF + NI 15.8 22.5 +6.7 (ECR + EFD + EAF + NI) + GUE 20.4 29.6 +9.2 PRO ANTI

5. 5 Possible coalitions (%) Centre-right Centre-left Old EP New EP Difference EPP+ALDE 46.6 38.7 -7.9 EPP+ALDE+ECR 54.0 45.0 -9.0 Old EP New EP Difference S&D + G/EFA + GUE-NGL 37.6 38.7 +1.2 (S&D + G/EFA + GUE-NGL) + ALDE 48.4 49.1 +0.7

6. 6 Impact assessment of EP elections on 2014-19 EU policy Possible scenarios Economy • Less budget consolidation • More public spending • Push for tax harmonization? • More regulation of the financial sector

7. 7 Impact assessment of EP elections on 2014-19 EU policy Possible scenarios Employment • More social indicators followed through the European Semester • Push for re-correlation of salaries with inflation rather than productivity • Regulations more labour-oriented (working time and work conditions)

8. 8 Impact assessment of EP elections on 2014-19 EU policy Possible scenarios Trade and internal market • Lengthier and more difficult negotiations on TTIP • More questioning of the strengthening of internal market for services

9. 9 Impact assessment of EP elections on 2014-19 EU policy Possible scenarios Energy • Nuclear power will continue to be seen as playing a key role • Shale gas and oil exploration – EP majority likely positive • Support for pan-EU energy infrastructure

10. 10 Impact assessment of EP elections on 2014-19 EU policy Possible scenarios Environment • Step-by-step approach towards C02 reduction and climate targets? • Re-industrialization? Uncertain

11. 11 Impact assessment of EP elections on 2014-19 EU policy Possible scenarios Civil liberties • More barriers to migration?

12. Doru Frantescu, Policy Director and Co-founder doru@votewatcheurope.eu www.votewatch.eu @VoteWatchEurope /VoteWatchEurope

VoteWatch post-elections analysis

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