Vision 2050 document outlines a future where: 1) Physical mobility is replaced by virtual presence through advanced communication technologies that allow people to be virtually anywhere. 2) Work and personal lives are blended as distance no longer impacts social and professional connections. 3) Individualization and personalization are prevalent as mass media declines and personal communication rises.

1. Vision 2050: Von der physischen Mobilität zur virtuellen Präsenz.
Vision 2050: From physical mobility to virtual presence.
Hermann Hartenthaler, Deutsche Telekom Laboratories, Berlin
Hannover, 23. April 2009; Hannover, tech transfer – Gateway2Innovation, Forum
Erleben, was verbindet.

2. Overview.
Deutsche Telekom Laboratories.
Vision 2050.
Vision 2010/2020.
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3. Deutsche Telekom Laboratories.
Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 3

4. Telekom Laboratories –
industrial research rocks.
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5. The Telekom Laboratories projects orient themselves to
Deutsche Telekom’s R&D strategy (5i).
Fields of innovation (5i) ICT spectrum Technology trends Guidelines for innovation
 Smart individualization
 Multimodal interfaces
Intuitive Usability  Sensor technology Simplify your life.
 Transaction control (AAA, identity management)
Integrated Service  Multimedia / content based
Always best served.
Components  Intelligent, convergent services
 Intelligent wireless broadband networks
 Network-centric service control
Intelligent Access  Seamless communication Always best connected.
 Home networks and home networking
 Clean Slate Internet Design
 Process IT High quality at
Infrastructure
reasonable cost.
 Trustworthy areas (devices, Internet, etc.,)
 Network-based protection mechanisms
Inherent Security Trusted IP networks.
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6. The organizational structure offers an ideal environment for
cooperation between industry and research in partnership.
Strategic Research
Innovation Development
(professorships at the TU Berlin)
Quality and Security in Interaction Integrated
Intelligent Intuitive Intelligent Infra- Inherent
Usability Telecom- Design & Service
Networks Usability Access structure Security
Lab munications Media Components
Functional groups
User Driven Innovation Innovation Methods & Tools
Networking / Security / Usability
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7. The people are the primary focus of our research
and development work.
User Driven Innovation
Strategic Quality / Innovation
User
Research Usability Development
Experience
Laboratory Laboratory
Design Research
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8. Open Innovation: exchange of internal and external R&D services
allows for a more efficient access to new and existing markets.
Company boundaries
New
market
Research Existing market
projects
Research Development
Source: Chesbrough (2003)
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9. Telekom Laboratories cooperate according to the
Open Innovation model with selected research institutes.
Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-
Universität Bonn Norwegian University of Science
and Technology
Imperial College London
Technische Universität Berlin
Columbia University École Nationale
d’Ingénieurs de Brest Fraunhofer-Institut für
Nachrichtentechnik Heinrich-
Boston University Hertz-Institut
Univeridad Carlos III de
University of Illinois Madrid
Fraunhofer-Institut für Offene
Technische Universität Kommunikationssysteme
Darmstadt
Ben-Gurion University
Stanford University Deutsches Forschungszentrum
für Künstliche Intelligenz Ludwig-Maximilian-Universität
München
École Polytechnique Fédérale
de Lausanne Technische Universität München
Universität St. Gallen
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10. Technology Radar:
Early detection of technological trends and changes.
Market Presence
Market-Ready
Product Concept
Applied Research Attention needed:
Basic Research High Medium Low
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11. Researchers and developers from around the world form
an interdisciplinary team.
 A good 350 scientists and Telekom experts
 Average age of around 36 years
 Employees from more than 50 countries
 ... of which approx. 70 are research scientists with mainly
short-term contracts, plus 80 thesis students, interns,
guest researchers, etc.
 Several sites in Berlin and Darmstadt
 International team with 25 members at the Ben-Gurion
University in Israel focusing on security and multimedia
 Project office with 8 staff members in Silicon Valley, USA,
concerned with Clean Slate Internet Design, New Media,
Services and Mobile Platforms
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12. The scientific work is internationally renowned.
Inventions and Patents Publications
Invention applications Conference proceedings 299
Patent applications Journals 3
30
Books / chapters
51
48 Other 215 36
14
36 20
33 32 138 23
5
6
23 230
17
30 158
104
3
2 2 1 4
22
2004/2005 2006 2007 2008 2005 2006 2007 2008
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13. A number of awards show the
international significance.
 Dr. T. Alpcan: Robert T. Chien Memorial Award and Ross J. Martin Award, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
 H. Hartenthaler: DALI Award 2007 (together with elka and ivistar)
 Dr. S. Krishnamurthy: Best Paper Award “Ubiquitous Intelligence and Computing (UIC-2007)”, Hong Kong
 Prof. S. Möller: DFG Heisenberg scholarship
 Prof. G. Joost: 100 Köpfe von morgen
 Dr. F. Metze: Voice Award for Speech-based classification
 Place in the Land of Ideas in 2006, 2007 and 2008
 IBC AWARD: Digital Cinema: the digital workflow in the digital
 B. Freese: Best Paper Award “Multi Access Modular Services approach (MAMS), (ICIN2007)”
 Dr. A. Raake: ITG award 2007 for Speech Quality of VoIP - Assessment and Prediction
 Dr. F. Steinhoff: 2nd place at the Wissenschaftspreis 2008 of the Deutsche Marketing-Verband
 J. Heuer: Multi-Protocol IDDY Award 2008
 J. Stegmann: Anniversary VOICE Award 2008
 Dr. H. Arnold: European Young Leaders Forum
 Prof. G. Joost: Berlin Scientific Award of the Governing Mayor of Berlin 2008
 Dr. Z. Ren: Convergators’ Awards 2009 (in the Mobile Content and audience prize categories)
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14. The success of Telekom Laboratories is measured at the transfer
to the Group’s business areas or to spin-offs.
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15. Colleagues perform research and development in different
locations.
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16. Vision 2050.
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17. As the future will demonstrate,
companies should be prepared.
“People tend to overestimate what can be accomplished in the short run,
but to underestimate what can be accomplished in the long run.”
Arthur Charles Clarke
“The past is a foreign country. They
do things differently there.”
Leslie Poles Hartley
“Technology is not kind. It does not wait. It does not say please. It slams into
existing systems. Often destroying them, while creating new ones.”
Joseph Alois Schumpeter
“The future is already here –
it is just not evenly
distributed yet.”
William Gibson
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18. The laws of economics and technological conditions determine
exponential growth in our industry.
Moore’s Law Gilder’s Law Metcalfe’s Law
Transistor
Value of network
1 US$
Bandwidth
77,000Mio.
count
Transistor count
2,500Mio.
75Mio. Average
price
2,300 -9
10 US$
Computer power Number of users
1971 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
The value of a
Transistors placed on an
Bandwidth grows at least telecommunications network
integrated circuit are doubling
three times faster than is proportional to the
every 24 months while prices
computer power. square of the number of users
are falling.
of the system (n²).
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19. Rate of change: technology diffusion is accelerating.
Adoption curves of electronic devices
4
Handheld Cell Phone
(1996) (1984)
Camcorder
3 (1984)
million units
PC
2 (1978)
VCRs
(1974)
1
Color TV
(1955)
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Years from inception
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20. A projection of trends into the future shows changes in society and
in technological indicators.
Last domains of analogue
Trend to Digitalization media are falling
(radio, newspapers, …).
Personalization ends the
short era of mass media. Trend to Individualization
Technology decouples
Trend to new Society community from
proximity.
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21. From physical mobility to virtual presence.
Scenario.
 Ein Tag im Leben des Architekten Hans Erimitamo
 Videokonferenz-Besprechung mit der Kollegin auf
der Baustelle in Aukland; Manipulation eines
holografischen Gebäude-Modells in 3D durch
Gesten
 gemeinsames Frühstück mit der Tochter, die in
Südafrika studiert; holografische Präsenz des
Vaters am Frühstückstisch; virtuelles Shopping-
Terminal; Bezahlung bei T-Pay durch eine Geste;
Abfrage von Produktinformationen zu einer
Weinflasche über eine Geste
 reales und virtuelles Surfen von Vater und Tochter
 abschließende Klärung von architektonischen
Problemen in einer Videokonferenz
 holografischer Besuchs des Vaters bei der Tochter
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22. From physical mobility to virtual presence.
Communication Messages.
 Digitalisierung und Virtualisierung
 Kommunikation substituiert physische Mobilität
 Die Welt kommt nach Hause; man selbst ist in der Welt virtuell, jederzeit und überall präsent
 Kommunikations- und Informationstechnologie holen die Welt nach Hause
 Physische Mobilität benötigt kostbare Ressourcen – Nachhaltigkeit durch ITK
 Physische Mobilität verliert an Bedeutung und ist in 2050 ein Luxus
 Daten sind mobil, nicht der Mensch
 Connected Life and Work
 Privatleben und Arbeitsleben verschmelzen
 Enspannung und Unterhaltung sind natürliche Bestandteile des Tagesablaufs
 Entfernung spielt für den Zusammenhalt in Familie und Arbeitsleben keine wesentliche Rolle mehr
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23. From physical mobility to virtual presence.
Anknüpfungspunkte 2010 (Folie 1 von 2).
 Soziale Kontakte im Privat- und Berufsleben sind ein menschliches Grundbedürfnis
 Die privaten und beruflichen Kontakte werden zunehmend global
 Ressourcen wie Erdöl und Erdgas sind begrenzt und werden bis 2050 knapp
 Physische Transporte kosten viel Energie und belasten die Umwelt
 Telepräsenz kann viele physische Präsenzbesprechungen ersetzen
 CO2-Emissionen könnten drastisch reduziert werden
 bundesweit 10% weniger Personenverkehr spart 18 Millionen Tonnen CO2
 Dematerialisierung oder Virtualisierung ist einzentraler Beitrag der Telekommunikationsindustrie zu einer
nachhaltigen Gesellschaft
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24. From physical mobility to virtual presence.
Anknüpfungspunkte 2010 (Folie 2 von 2).
 Die Welt kommt nach Hause: tausende von Radioprogrammen, hunderte von Fernsehprogrammen
 Soziale Netzwerke über facebook, StudiVZ, twitter, XING, etc. ergänzen bereits heute die physische soziale
Präsenz
 Arbeiten an jedem Ort, zu jeder Zeit und in flexiblen Strukturen
 Intuitive Bedienbarkeit und „natürliche“ Benutzungsschnittstellen wie Gesten- und Spracherkennung sind
verfügbar
 Erkennen von Gedankenmustern durch technische Geräte ist ansatzweise möglich
 Stimmbanderregungsmuster können in Sprache verwandelt werden, auch ohne dass laut gesprochen wird
 Holografische Projektionen ergänzen Telepräsenzsysteme
 3D-Fernsehen ist in der Vorbereitung
 Jederzeitiger Zugriff an jedem Ort auf alle Informationen über das Internet ist in Vorbereitung
 Breitbandinfrastruktur und LTE als UMTS-Nachfolger
 Internet etabliert sich als das Nervensystem der Welt von morgen
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25. Vision 2010/2020.
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26. UICC and NFC: a convergence solution in various living scenarios
based on one device for many different applications.
UICC
Mobile Banking
Home/Entertainment
Mobile Payment
Access
Mobile Content
www
Enterprise/Office
Mobile Ticketing
Digital Identity Fixed Mobile Convergence
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27. Deutsche Telekom Laboratories 27

28. IPTV evolution: IP based TV evolution could emerge from
“multi channel IPTV” to next generation’s “New TV”.
IPTV Evolution Remarks
Classic IPTV TV 2.0 New TV
Service elements
User driven content
Personalization
Interaction
Targeting
Interactive services
On demand services
Multi channels
IPTV provider
Program provider
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29. Group communications: enabling more efficient and effective
communications within social groups – starting with families.
Mobile
Concentrating on the community services
essentials for group
communication
Location functionalities for
group communication
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30. Collaboration in three dimensions:
Mobile, flexible and non-hierarchical work environment.
Dimensions of Future Work Properties
mobile
 Work is independent of time
everywhere, at any and location
time, flexible
location
 Flexible organizations
fixed location, fixed  Teamwork is cross-functional
time, hierarchical time and non hierarchical
flexible
structure  Information is pervasively
available (everywhere and at
non hierarchical any time)
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31. Fusing reality and virtuality in the work environment: More effi-
ciency through integrated services and innovative infrastructure.
Communication
Information Technology
Technology
Innovative Workplace- Efficient
services Infrastructure operation
Building and
Media Technology
Security Technology
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32. Sustainability via a powerful infrastructure.
Workplace at Home TelePresence and Video Conferencing
Work wherever you want ! Save time and costs !
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33. Thank You!
Welcome at booth E22!
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