Vasileios Lampos - 2014 - Extracting Socioeconomic Patterns from the News: Modeeling Text and Outlet Importance Jointly

This document discusses using news summaries to model socioeconomic patterns and jointly model the importance of text and news outlets in forecasts. It describes extracting daily summaries about the EU from the OpenEuropeThinkTank in English, averaging 14 news per summary from 435 outlets from 2006 to 2013. Models using linear and bilinear regressions that jointly consider word frequencies and outlet weights were able to predict economic sentiment indicator values with errors of 9.89% and 8.77%, slightly better than linear regression alone.

Education

*ESI=Economicsentimentindicator
-compositeindicatoroftenseenasanearlypredictorforfutureeco-
nomicdevelopments
-consistsoffiveconfidenceindicatorswithdifferentweights:indus-
trial(40%),services(30%),consumer(20%),construction(5%)
andretailtrade(5%)
-anysocioeconomicindicatorcanbeusedinthisframework
Data
-newssummarieswritteninEnglish
-extractedfrom theOpenEuropeThinkTank
-dailyaggregat1ionofnewsabouttheEU
-focusedoncurrentaffairs,politics,economy
-eachsummaryisafewparagraphslong
-eachsummaryisattachedto≥1newsoutlets
--1913days,94months
-avg.14news/summary
-features:8413unigrams+19045bigrams
-435newsoutlets
Forecast
RMSE(errorrate%)inaforecasting
setupon30datapoints
Linearregression:9.253(9.89%)
Bilinearreression:8.209(8.77%)
y =oXw + β
outletxword
dailyfrequencies
prediction biasterm
f : X -> Y
OUTLET
,{( )} ESI*
2006->2013
TrevorCohnτ
t.cohn@unimelb.edu.au
DouweGellingγ
d.gelling@sheffield.ac.uk
SinaSamangooeiσ
sinjax@gmail.com
DanielPreoţiuc-Pietroδ
danielpr@gmail.com
VasileiosLamposβ
v.lampos@ucl.ac.uk
β δ,γ
σ τ
ExtractingSocioeconomicPatternsfrom theNews:
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This document provides information about a macroeconomics lecture on business fluctuations and the aggregate supply and demand model. It discusses reviewing for exam 2 which will cover chapters 13-18 and focus on business fluctuations, aggregate supply and demand. It also presents graphs of the aggregate demand and supply model showing the relationship between inflation, real GDP growth, and how shocks can cause fluctuations in output and prices.

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