กรณีศึกษาการวิเคราะห์การลงทุนในสตาร์ทอัพ (Valuation) เครือซีพี และ ทรู อินคิวป์ วิชา FIN 3208 Financial Management 1 โดย นายกิตตินันท์ ชอบธรรม, นายทอมมี่ มาเซ็งค์, นางสาวลลิตา โพธิกันยา

1. การวิเคราะห์การลงทุนในสตาร์ทอัพ
(VALUATION)
เครือซีพี และ ทรู อินคิวป์
วิชา FIN 3208 FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT 1
โดย นายกิตตินันท์ ชอบธรรม
นายทอมมี่ มาเซ็งค์
นางสาวลลิตา โพธิกันยา

2. TABLE OF CONTENTS
I. Valuating a startup via three methods
A. Discounted Cash Flow
B. Comparable
C. Football field aggregated overview
II.Impact of investment via 2 scenario
A. Cap table structure and shares conversion mechanic
B. Discount effect and valuation cap effect

4. FOOTBALL FIELD - OVERVIEW
FOOTBALLFIELD
(InUSD) Range
Low − High
Discounted cash flow analysis $3,480,956 − $5,207,145
Selected com panyanalysis $3,160,982 − $4,603,701
Average $3,320,969 - $4,905,423
$3,480,956
$3,160,982
$5,207,145
$4,603,701
$2,000,000
$2,500,000
$3,000,000
$3,500,000
$4,000,000
$4,500,000
$5,000,000
$5,500,000
$6,000,000
Discountedcashflow analysis Selected companyanalysis

5. DCF - OVERVIEW
Assum ption
Taxerate 20%
Discount(2020-2024) 25%
Term inalGrow th 2%
P/E M ultiplier 38.5x Hum anica(Listed on SET)
RevenueM ultiplier 7.0x
USD/THB 31.3
(inUSD)
Revenue 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
TotalRevenue 85,006 526,659 932,315 1,370,253 1,562,376 1,646,222
RevenueGrowth 520% 77% 47% 14% 5%
TotalExpense 50,176 195,909 337,168 379,674 399,489 414,190
Profit/Loss(BeforeTax) - 34,830 330,750 595,146 990,579 1,162,888 1,232,032
Profit/Loss(AfterTax) - 27,864 264,600 476,117 792,463 930,310 985,626
NetProfitM argin 33% 50% 51% 58% 60% 60%
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Term inalValue
PV ofCashflow 22,291 169,344 243,772 324,593 304,844 258,376 11,493,171
PV ofTerm inalValue 3,012,866
EntrepriseValue $4,336,086
Discounted cash flow (DCF) is a
valuation method used to estimate the
value of an investment based on its future
cash flows. DCF analysis attempts to figure
out the value of an investment today, based
on projections of how much money it will
generate in the future.

6. DCF – SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
(inUSD)
Pre-m oney
Term inalvalue m ultipleon Revenue
4,336,086 5.0x 6.0x 7.0x 8.0x 9.0x
15% 5,437,631 6,149,338 6,861,045 7,572,753 8,284,460
20% 4,325,205 4,876,522 5,427,838 5,979,155 6,530,471
25% 3,480,956 3,912,503 4,344,051 4,775,598 5,207,145
30% 2,832,226 3,173,284 3,514,342 3,855,400 4,196,458
35% 2,327,957 2,599,905 2,871,853 3,143,801 3,415,749
DiscountRate

7. COMPARABLE VALUATION - OVERVIEW
Assum ption
AverageM ultiple 6.6x
DiscountRate 15%
USD/THB 31.3
(InUSD)
Operating Discount Discounted Selectedm ultiplerange Im pliedenterprisevalue
data Rate Revenue Low − High Low − High
CY2021E
Revenue $526,659 15% $457,964 4.8x − 8.5x $2,181,054 − $3,902,872
CY2022E
Revenue $932,315 15% $704,964 4.8x − 8.5x 3,357,390 − 6,007,858
CY2023E
Revenue $1,370,253 15% $900,964 4.8x − 8.5x 4,290,840 − 7,678,213
Post-m oneyvaluation range $3,276,428 − $5,862,981
Investm ent 1,000,000 − 1,000,000
Pre-m oneyvaluation range $2,276,428 − $4,862,981
AveragePost-M oneyValuation $4,569,705
AveragePre-M oneyValuation $3,569,705
Comparable valuation is a process used to evaluate the
value of a company using the metrics of other businesses
of similar size in the same industry.
This method operates under the assumption that similar
companies will have similar valuation multiples

8. COMPARABLE VALUATION – SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
(inUSD)
Pre-m oney
Term inalvalue m ultipleon Revenue
3,569,705 4.6x 5.6x 6.6x 7.6x 8.6x
5% 4,603,701 4,603,701 4,603,701 4,603,701 4,603,701
10% 4,045,494 4,045,494 4,045,494 4,045,494 4,045,494
15% 3,569,705 3,569,705 3,569,705 3,569,705 3,569,705
20% 3,160,982 3,160,982 3,160,982 3,160,982 3,160,982
25% 2,807,353 2,807,353 2,807,353 2,807,353 2,807,353
DiscountRate

9. COMPARABLE VALUATION – SELECTED LIST(M illioninUSD,exceptpersharedata)
Operating M etrics Trading M etrics
StockPrice Equity Entreprise Revenue Grow th EBITDA M argin EV /Revenue EV /EBITDA
Com pany Q4 2019 Value Value 19E/18A 20E/19E 19E 19E 20E 19E 20E
BenefitsAdm inistration/Payroll
Autom aticData Processing,Inc. $159.74 $69,587 $70,007 6% 7% 24% 4.8x 4.5x 19.8x 17.6x
Paychex,Inc. $80.20 $28,824 $28,945 17% 6% 41% 7.2x 6.8x 17.6x 16.5x
PaylocityHolding Corporation $89.19 $4,720 $4,616 20% 23% 28% 10.2x 8.3x 36.2x 28.3x
TriNetGroup,Inc. $59.74 $4,192 $4,323 7% 11% 38% 4.6x 4.1x 12.2x 11.0x
HealthEquity,Inc. $73.98 $4,622 $4,260 17% 15% 40% 12.6x 10.9x 31.3x 26.3x
Benefitfocus,Inc. $49.52 $1,587 $1,634 17% 19% 7% 5.4x 4.6x 75.0x 40.5x
M edian 17% 13% 33% 6.3x 5.7x 25.6x 22.0x
Brokerage
M arsh & M cLennan Com panies,Inc. $93.90 $47,660 $52,418 5% 5% 25% 3.3x 3.2x 13.2x 13.0x
Aon plc $170.70 $40,968 $46,475 5% 6% 28% 4.1x 3.9x 14.8x 13.6x
W illisTow ersW atson PublicLim ited $175.65 $22,677 $26,248 5% 4% 25% 2.9x 2.8x 11.9x 11.2x
Brow n & Brow n,Inc. $29.51 $8,317 $9,372 16% 6% 30% 4.0x 3.8x 13.3x 12.5x
Goosehead Insurance,Inc $27.88 $403 $433 43% 40% 26% 7.1x 5.1x 27.5x 18.6x
M edian 5% 6% 26% 4.0x 3.8x 13.3x 13.0x
Data & Analytics
RELX PLC $21.38 $41,721 $49,708 7% 4% 36% 4.9x 4.7x 13.6x 13.2x
Experian plc $27.07 $24,394 $27,824 4% 9% 34% 5.5x 5.1x 16.2x 14.5x
VeriskAnalytics,Inc. $133.00 $21,747 $24,327 7% 7% 48% 9.5x 8.9x 19.8x 18.4x
EquifaxInc. $118.50 $14,382 $16,794 2% 6% 34% 4.8x 4.5x 14.3x 13.0x
TransUnion $66.84 $12,517 $16,362 11% 8% 39% 6.3x 5.8x 16.2x 14.6x
FairIsaacCorporation $271.63 $7,897 $8,649 8% 7% NA 7.6x 7.0x NM NM
LiveRam p Holdings,Inc. $54.57 $3,738 $2,192 -56% 29% -12% 6.4x 5.0x NM NM
M edian 7% 7% 35% 6.3x 5.1x 16.2x 14.5x

10. COMPARABLE VALUATION – SELECTED LIST CONT’D

12. ASSUMPTIONS
Startup ABC has raised its first round (seed) in convertible
notes of $200K and it is now raising a new round in equity,
we will see how the convertible notes are converted into
equity based on two scenarios:
1. Where the company will convert into equity via the
discount rate
1. Where the company will convert into equity via the
valuation cap
Assum ptions
ConvertibleNote 200,000
Disocunt 20%
InterestRate 7%
ShareValue $1
Valuation Cap $3,000,000
Assum ptions
ConvertibleNote 200,000
Disocunt 20%
InterestRate 7%
ShareValue $1
Valuation Cap $3,000,000

13. Phase II: Seed Funding
Raise initial round of equity capital, causes conversion of outstanding notes based on valuation.
Valuation set by incoming investor... subject to negotiation.
Pre-money Valuation $3,000,000
Price per Share
Series A $1.07
Convertible with discount $0.86
Convertible with cap $1.07
Shareholders Invest Ord Shares Pref Shares Value Equity
Founder(s) 2,800,000 $3,000,000 77.92%
Founder capital injection 40,833 $43,750 1.14%
Ronny 58,333 $62,500 1.62%
French Investors 40,833 $43,750 1.14%
German Investors 23,333 $25,000 0.65%
Michelle 46,667 $50,000 1.30%
KPI 23,333 $25,000 0.65%
VC 1 $600,000 560,000 $600,000 15.58%
Post Money Value $3,850,000 100%
77.92%
1.14%
1.62%
1.14%
0.65%
1.30%
0.65%
15.58%
Founder(s)
Founder capital
injection
Ronny
French Investors
German
Investors
Michelle
KPI
Phase I: Convertible Note
Company raises initial capital via convertible note (i.e. short term debt that converts to equity)
At time of deal, no need to determine Company valuation…
Implement convertible note of $200,000
Discount on Note 20%
Investment Value
Discount ($250,000)
Cap ($200,000)
A Discount is used ($250,000)
Shareholders Shares Value Equity
Founder(s) 2,800,000 $0 100%
Founder capital injection* $35,000 0%
Ronny* $50,000 0%
French Investors* $35,000 0%
German Investors* $20,000 0%
Michelle* $40,000 0%
KPI* $20,000 0%
2,800,000
* Investing via convertible note.
SCENARIO 1: $600K EQUITY / $3M PRE-MONEY
Increased shares split for
Founder.
Number of shares based on
Value = Equity + Debt
ConNote is debt, therefore
value of
Equity = Valuation – Debt
2.8M = 3M – 200K
Conversion based on
discount:
200,000/$0.86= 233,333
200K*(1/(1-20%))
200K/($3M/$3M)
Series A shares
structure:
500,000/$1.09= 560,000
$3M/2.8M
$1.07*(1-20%)
$3M/2.8M
In scenario 1, the current investors have their notes
converted into shares via the discount rate of 20% since
the investment value of discount rate is higher than with
the valuation cap ($250,000 vs $200,000)
The reason is that the pre-money value is similar to the
valuation cap ($3M)

14. Phase II: Seed Funding
Raise initial round of equity capital, causes conversion of outstanding notes based on valuation.
Valuation set by incoming investor... subject to negotiation.
Pre-money Valuation $4,000,000
Price per Share
Series A $1.05
Convertible with discount $0.84
Convertible with cap $0.79
Shareholders Invest Ord Shares Pref Shares Value Equity
Founder(s) 3,800,000 $4,000,000 78.95%
Founder capital injection 44,333 $46,667 0.92%
Ronny 63,333 $66,667 1.32%
French Investors 44,333 $46,667 0.92%
German Investors 25,333 $26,667 0.53%
Michelle 50,667 $53,333 1.05%
KPI 25,333 $26,667 0.53%
VC 1 $800,000 760,000 $800,000 15.79%
Post Money Value $5,066,667 100%
78.95%
0.92%
1.32%
0.92%
0.53%
1.05%
0.53%
15.79%
Founder(s)
Founder capital
injection
Ronny
French Investors
German
Investors
Michelle
KPI
Phase I: Convertible Note
Company raises initial capital via convertible note (i.e. short term debt that converts to equity)
At time of deal, no need to determine Company valuation…
Implement convertible note of $200,000
Discount on Note 20%
Investment Value
Discount ($250,000)
Cap ($266,667)
A Cap is used ($266,667)
Shareholders Shares Value Equity
Founder(s) 3,800,000 $0 100%
Founder capital injection* $35,000 0%
Ronny* $50,000 0%
French Investors* $35,000 0%
German Investors* $20,000 0%
Michelle* $40,000 0%
KPI* $20,000 0%
3,800,000
* Investing via convertible note.
SCENARIO 2: $800K EQUITY / $4M PRE-
MONEY
Increased shares split for
Founder.
Number of shares based on
Value = Equity + Debt
ConNote is debt, therefore
value of
Equity = Valuation – Debt
3.8M = 4M – 200K
Conversion based on
cap: 200,000/$0.79=
253,333
200K*(1/(1-20%))
200K/($3M/$4M)
Series A shares
structure:
800,000/$1.05= 760,000
$4M/3.8M
$1.05*(1-20%)
$3M/3.8M
In scenario 2, the current investors have their notes
converted into shares via the valuation cap since the
investment value of the valuation cap rate is higher than
with the discount rate ($266,667 vs $250,000)
The reason is that the pre-money value is higher to the
valuation cap ($4M vs $3M)