This presentation first introduces the Beer Distribution Game to illustrate supply chain dynamics. It then analysis the dynamics underlying the game and illustrates how to find better supply chain management strategies using agent-based modelling. Finally the presentation illustrates how to train artificial intelligence to play the game using a reinforcement learning approach.
Here is a must in management science!
A role-play supply chain simulation making managers experience and understand typical supply chain problems and constraints.
Mobile UA Tips from the Inside | Paivi Putsepp-SeufertJessica Tams
Delivered at Casual Connect Tel Aviv 2016 | Ever wondered what people from a video network consider best practices for mobile UA? This talk will go over mobile UA tips that are observed by someone managing UA campaigns for top gaming mobile advertisers in Europe. You will walk away with suggestions that you can use in all large-scale UA networks.
What gaming industry can learn from the more mature industries in optimizing ...Veli-Pekka Julkunen
Insights on how organizations can climb on the "maturity" ladders of (product) analytics. Including a "billion dollar" case study + examples of how to break down Pokemon Go's potential.
The Fast and Furious World of Predictive MarketingWhatConts
Loren McDonald, Marketing Evangelist/Client Success at IBM Marketing Cloud, Matt Williamson, CEO, Windsor Circle and Nathan Decker, Director of Ecommerce, at evo, presented on how predictive marketing has evolved and is still ever changing.
Here is a must in management science!
A role-play supply chain simulation making managers experience and understand typical supply chain problems and constraints.
Mobile UA Tips from the Inside | Paivi Putsepp-SeufertJessica Tams
Delivered at Casual Connect Tel Aviv 2016 | Ever wondered what people from a video network consider best practices for mobile UA? This talk will go over mobile UA tips that are observed by someone managing UA campaigns for top gaming mobile advertisers in Europe. You will walk away with suggestions that you can use in all large-scale UA networks.
What gaming industry can learn from the more mature industries in optimizing ...Veli-Pekka Julkunen
Insights on how organizations can climb on the "maturity" ladders of (product) analytics. Including a "billion dollar" case study + examples of how to break down Pokemon Go's potential.
The Fast and Furious World of Predictive MarketingWhatConts
Loren McDonald, Marketing Evangelist/Client Success at IBM Marketing Cloud, Matt Williamson, CEO, Windsor Circle and Nathan Decker, Director of Ecommerce, at evo, presented on how predictive marketing has evolved and is still ever changing.
Why Big and Small Data Is Important by Google's Product ManagerProduct School
In this talk, Dan McClary, a Product Manager at Google, walked through the importance of using data to drive product decisions, as well as how to quickly pull together an architecture using free tools to help grow a product effort from market analysis to live data capture and data-driven product decisions. We also played a rousing game of Breakout.
Two Methods for Modeling LTV with a SpreadsheetEric Seufert
NB! The bitly link in the deck DOES NOT WORK, please use this one: http://bit.ly/1JTymzd
This is the presentation I gave at Slush 2013 in Helsinki, Finland. It describes two methods for modeling Lifetime Customer Value (LTV) in Excel. Linked within the presentation is a spreadsheet exemplifying both methods against 100k rows of fake user data that I generated with a Python script to "look" real (although they probably don't).
Long Live Performance Marketing_Nick CristalPerformanceIN
Whilst OPM studies have shown consistent growth in affiliate marketing & lead generation, what is happening in the wider performance mix - with paid social, paid search and programmatic - is certainly worth keeping an eye on.
The link between affiliate marketing and performance media is increasingly prevalent, what with the channel's ability to reward super affiliates, an increase in quality content publishers and the rise in attribution and automation. The desire for a cross-channel performance journey is increasing as the approaches and strategies of yesterday head for the door.
Under the impression that looking at the affiliate channel in a silo with separate budgets, goals and outcomes may not be the wisest move, Nick Cristal of UK performance agency Maxus will lay out the inner workings of a unified performance strategy whilst exploring the opportunities, tools, methodologies and mindsets required by media owners, affiliates and advertisers.
Attendees can expect a highly in-depth review of the multi-channel way of working, and methods of getting this into their campaigns.
B2B Marketers: Sharpen Your Storytelling Skills (Workshop)LookBookHQ
For B2B marketers, great stories can mean the difference between marketing content that audiences love and content that fails to deliver results. It takes real storytelling skill to rise above the noise and grab the attention of busy audiences.
These slides were presented by Ardath Albee, from Marketing Interactions, and Nick Edouard, from LookBookHQ, during a free 30 minute online workshop on 11th June 2013 designed to sharpen B2B marketers' storytelling skills.
The slides cover:
1. Why storytelling matters to B2B marketers
2. How to get round the big 3 storytelling obstacles that even the pros face
3. 4 real-world examples of B2B storytelling that drove amazing business results
4. The 8 key storytelling success factors
Boutique Pitch Deck Presentation Template
If you want to buy this presentation template, please visit http://madlis.com
Good design gets out of the way of the content you are sharing. It helps your audience focus on the content itself instead of the design.
But, it's no secret that most people dislike giving presentations. The dread of public speaking consistently ranks among the greatest fears in public surveys.
This presentation slides can help you reduce the anxiety involved with giving a presentation. Well-designed slides not only build your own confidence, they make your key points clearer to the audience.
Boutique Pitch Deck Presentation Template
If you want to buy this presentation template, please visit http://madlis.com
Good design gets out of the way of the content you are sharing. It helps your audience focus on the content itself instead of the design.
But, it's no secret that most people dislike giving presentations. The dread of public speaking consistently ranks among the greatest fears in public surveys.
This presentation slides can help you reduce the anxiety involved with giving a presentation. Well-designed slides not only build your own confidence, they make your key points clearer to the audience.
Sales Forecasting for Management Consultants & Business AnalystsAsen Gyczew
During many consulting projects, you may be asked to forecast the sales of the firm or check sales forecast models done by the customer. Sales forecasting requires a specific approach to data and also a lot of creative, out of box thinking, to address the issue of insufficient data and changing environment. In this presentation, I will teach you how to do fast and efficiently basic sales forecast models in Excel. We will create a relatively simple sales forecast. Nevertheless, they will significantly help your customer define strategy and decide whether he should open a new factory, enter a new field, buy a business. We will NOT get into complicated models, forecasts as in most case you will not have neither time nor data to do them. It would also require a wider knowledge of mathematics, statistics, econometrics and a usage of more advanced tools than Excel. The things you will learn in this presentation will be sufficient in 70% of the cases and can be done with the knowledge of basic Math. Such basic sales forecasts are especially important during Strategy projects, M&A projects and business development projects. In such projects, you want to get fast rough sales forecasts using simple methods. A similar approach as we will show in this presentation can be used as the starting point for budgeting models.
In the presentation you will learn the following things:
1. The essential concepts in sales forecasting and the main tools that you may need.
2. How to forecast sales in Excel using simple methods fast and efficiently
3. What drivers of sales you should take into account for selected industries. We will look at different cases studies to see how you can move from drivers to a working model in Excel
For more check my online course: http://bit.ly/SalesForecastConsulting
Why Big and Small Data Is Important by Google's Product ManagerProduct School
In this talk, Dan McClary, a Product Manager at Google, walked through the importance of using data to drive product decisions, as well as how to quickly pull together an architecture using free tools to help grow a product effort from market analysis to live data capture and data-driven product decisions. We also played a rousing game of Breakout.
Two Methods for Modeling LTV with a SpreadsheetEric Seufert
NB! The bitly link in the deck DOES NOT WORK, please use this one: http://bit.ly/1JTymzd
This is the presentation I gave at Slush 2013 in Helsinki, Finland. It describes two methods for modeling Lifetime Customer Value (LTV) in Excel. Linked within the presentation is a spreadsheet exemplifying both methods against 100k rows of fake user data that I generated with a Python script to "look" real (although they probably don't).
Long Live Performance Marketing_Nick CristalPerformanceIN
Whilst OPM studies have shown consistent growth in affiliate marketing & lead generation, what is happening in the wider performance mix - with paid social, paid search and programmatic - is certainly worth keeping an eye on.
The link between affiliate marketing and performance media is increasingly prevalent, what with the channel's ability to reward super affiliates, an increase in quality content publishers and the rise in attribution and automation. The desire for a cross-channel performance journey is increasing as the approaches and strategies of yesterday head for the door.
Under the impression that looking at the affiliate channel in a silo with separate budgets, goals and outcomes may not be the wisest move, Nick Cristal of UK performance agency Maxus will lay out the inner workings of a unified performance strategy whilst exploring the opportunities, tools, methodologies and mindsets required by media owners, affiliates and advertisers.
Attendees can expect a highly in-depth review of the multi-channel way of working, and methods of getting this into their campaigns.
B2B Marketers: Sharpen Your Storytelling Skills (Workshop)LookBookHQ
For B2B marketers, great stories can mean the difference between marketing content that audiences love and content that fails to deliver results. It takes real storytelling skill to rise above the noise and grab the attention of busy audiences.
These slides were presented by Ardath Albee, from Marketing Interactions, and Nick Edouard, from LookBookHQ, during a free 30 minute online workshop on 11th June 2013 designed to sharpen B2B marketers' storytelling skills.
The slides cover:
1. Why storytelling matters to B2B marketers
2. How to get round the big 3 storytelling obstacles that even the pros face
3. 4 real-world examples of B2B storytelling that drove amazing business results
4. The 8 key storytelling success factors
Boutique Pitch Deck Presentation Template
If you want to buy this presentation template, please visit http://madlis.com
Good design gets out of the way of the content you are sharing. It helps your audience focus on the content itself instead of the design.
But, it's no secret that most people dislike giving presentations. The dread of public speaking consistently ranks among the greatest fears in public surveys.
This presentation slides can help you reduce the anxiety involved with giving a presentation. Well-designed slides not only build your own confidence, they make your key points clearer to the audience.
Boutique Pitch Deck Presentation Template
If you want to buy this presentation template, please visit http://madlis.com
Good design gets out of the way of the content you are sharing. It helps your audience focus on the content itself instead of the design.
But, it's no secret that most people dislike giving presentations. The dread of public speaking consistently ranks among the greatest fears in public surveys.
This presentation slides can help you reduce the anxiety involved with giving a presentation. Well-designed slides not only build your own confidence, they make your key points clearer to the audience.
Sales Forecasting for Management Consultants & Business AnalystsAsen Gyczew
During many consulting projects, you may be asked to forecast the sales of the firm or check sales forecast models done by the customer. Sales forecasting requires a specific approach to data and also a lot of creative, out of box thinking, to address the issue of insufficient data and changing environment. In this presentation, I will teach you how to do fast and efficiently basic sales forecast models in Excel. We will create a relatively simple sales forecast. Nevertheless, they will significantly help your customer define strategy and decide whether he should open a new factory, enter a new field, buy a business. We will NOT get into complicated models, forecasts as in most case you will not have neither time nor data to do them. It would also require a wider knowledge of mathematics, statistics, econometrics and a usage of more advanced tools than Excel. The things you will learn in this presentation will be sufficient in 70% of the cases and can be done with the knowledge of basic Math. Such basic sales forecasts are especially important during Strategy projects, M&A projects and business development projects. In such projects, you want to get fast rough sales forecasts using simple methods. A similar approach as we will show in this presentation can be used as the starting point for budgeting models.
In the presentation you will learn the following things:
1. The essential concepts in sales forecasting and the main tools that you may need.
2. How to forecast sales in Excel using simple methods fast and efficiently
3. What drivers of sales you should take into account for selected industries. We will look at different cases studies to see how you can move from drivers to a working model in Excel
For more check my online course: http://bit.ly/SalesForecastConsulting
Show drafts
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Empowering the Data Analytics Ecosystem: A Laser Focus on Value
The data analytics ecosystem thrives when every component functions at its peak, unlocking the true potential of data. Here's a laser focus on key areas for an empowered ecosystem:
1. Democratize Access, Not Data:
Granular Access Controls: Provide users with self-service tools tailored to their specific needs, preventing data overload and misuse.
Data Catalogs: Implement robust data catalogs for easy discovery and understanding of available data sources.
2. Foster Collaboration with Clear Roles:
Data Mesh Architecture: Break down data silos by creating a distributed data ownership model with clear ownership and responsibilities.
Collaborative Workspaces: Utilize interactive platforms where data scientists, analysts, and domain experts can work seamlessly together.
3. Leverage Advanced Analytics Strategically:
AI-powered Automation: Automate repetitive tasks like data cleaning and feature engineering, freeing up data talent for higher-level analysis.
Right-Tool Selection: Strategically choose the most effective advanced analytics techniques (e.g., AI, ML) based on specific business problems.
4. Prioritize Data Quality with Automation:
Automated Data Validation: Implement automated data quality checks to identify and rectify errors at the source, minimizing downstream issues.
Data Lineage Tracking: Track the flow of data throughout the ecosystem, ensuring transparency and facilitating root cause analysis for errors.
5. Cultivate a Data-Driven Mindset:
Metrics-Driven Performance Management: Align KPIs and performance metrics with data-driven insights to ensure actionable decision making.
Data Storytelling Workshops: Equip stakeholders with the skills to translate complex data findings into compelling narratives that drive action.
Benefits of a Precise Ecosystem:
Sharpened Focus: Precise access and clear roles ensure everyone works with the most relevant data, maximizing efficiency.
Actionable Insights: Strategic analytics and automated quality checks lead to more reliable and actionable data insights.
Continuous Improvement: Data-driven performance management fosters a culture of learning and continuous improvement.
Sustainable Growth: Empowered by data, organizations can make informed decisions to drive sustainable growth and innovation.
By focusing on these precise actions, organizations can create an empowered data analytics ecosystem that delivers real value by driving data-driven decisions and maximizing the return on their data investment.
Explore our comprehensive data analysis project presentation on predicting product ad campaign performance. Learn how data-driven insights can optimize your marketing strategies and enhance campaign effectiveness. Perfect for professionals and students looking to understand the power of data analysis in advertising. for more details visit: https://bostoninstituteofanalytics.org/data-science-and-artificial-intelligence/
Data Centers - Striving Within A Narrow Range - Research Report - MCG - May 2...pchutichetpong
M Capital Group (“MCG”) expects to see demand and the changing evolution of supply, facilitated through institutional investment rotation out of offices and into work from home (“WFH”), while the ever-expanding need for data storage as global internet usage expands, with experts predicting 5.3 billion users by 2023. These market factors will be underpinned by technological changes, such as progressing cloud services and edge sites, allowing the industry to see strong expected annual growth of 13% over the next 4 years.
Whilst competitive headwinds remain, represented through the recent second bankruptcy filing of Sungard, which blames “COVID-19 and other macroeconomic trends including delayed customer spending decisions, insourcing and reductions in IT spending, energy inflation and reduction in demand for certain services”, the industry has seen key adjustments, where MCG believes that engineering cost management and technological innovation will be paramount to success.
MCG reports that the more favorable market conditions expected over the next few years, helped by the winding down of pandemic restrictions and a hybrid working environment will be driving market momentum forward. The continuous injection of capital by alternative investment firms, as well as the growing infrastructural investment from cloud service providers and social media companies, whose revenues are expected to grow over 3.6x larger by value in 2026, will likely help propel center provision and innovation. These factors paint a promising picture for the industry players that offset rising input costs and adapt to new technologies.
According to M Capital Group: “Specifically, the long-term cost-saving opportunities available from the rise of remote managing will likely aid value growth for the industry. Through margin optimization and further availability of capital for reinvestment, strong players will maintain their competitive foothold, while weaker players exit the market to balance supply and demand.”
Using Simulations And AI to Optimize Supply Chains
1. USING SIMULATIONS AND AI TO OPTIMIZE SUPPLY CHAINS
Illustrated using the Beer Distribution Game
Berlin, 28.5.2020
Transforming Enterprises
2. TOPICS TODAY
Introduc on to the Beer Distribu on
Game, a supply chain simula on.
Use computa onal modelling to
understand supply chain dynamics and
nd better playing strategies.
Train autonomous agents to play the
game using a machine learning /
reinforcement learning approach
3. DOWNLOAD THE CODE AND COMPUTATIONAL NOTEBOOKS
Download all
the code and
in-depth
computational
notebooks from
.GitHub
All resources are available via www.transforming-enterprises.com
4. THE BEER DISTRIBUTION GAME
An Introduction
The Beer Game was developed in the 1960s at MIT to illustrate how difficult it is to manage dynamic
systems – in this case a supply chain that delivers beer from a brewery to the end consumer
The game became well known in the 1990s after Peter Senge's description of it in his world-wide
best selling book The Fifth Discipline
The game is great because even though it is about a very simple system and despite very simple
rules, the resulting behaviour is quite complex.
–
–
–
5. A BRIEF WALKTHROUGH OF THE BEER GAME
Try it yourself at beergame.transentis.com
The game is usually played with four players, but the single player version is also fun.
But let's look at the rules and some
poten al pi alls rst!
6. THE SITUATION
You are part of a supply chain that delivers beer from a brewery to the end consumer
try to meet the demand of your respective customer at all times, while keeping inventory low.
–
–
7. THE RULES
The rules of the game are simple – in every
round you perform the following steps:
1. Check deliveries. Check how many units
of beer are being delivery to you from
your supplier in the supply chain.
2. Check orders. Check how many units of
beer your client in the supply chain has
ordered.
3. Deliver beer. Deliver as much beer as
you can to satisfy demand (the game
does this for you).
4. Make an order decision. Decide how
many units of beer you need from your
supplier to keep your inventory stocked
up.
1
2
3
4
8. SOME PITFALLS TO BE AWARE OF
Backorder and inventory costs
Delays
9. HOW PERFORMANCE IS APPRAISED
Individual Supply Chain Cost.
Your accumulated cost should remain below $8.300.
Overall Supply Chain Costs.
Total supply chain cost should remain below
$29.300.
11. ORDER BEHAVIOUR IN A TYPICAL GAME
What the consumer orders How the supply chain reacts
Change in order behaviour from 100 units to
400 units
Peak order of over 30,000 units!
19. IMPROVEMENT STRATEGY 2: REMEMBER OPEN ORDERS
Remember the orders that are in the supply line
20. IMPROVEMENT STRATEGY 2: REMEMBER OPEN ORDERS
Remember the orders that are in the supply line
21. THE TARGET SUPPLY LINE DEPENDS ON THE DELIVERY DELAY
Target Supply Line = Delivery Delay * Incoming Orders
Orders = Incoming Orders + Target Inventory - Inventory + Target Supply Line - Supply Line
24. THE WHIPLASH EFFECT
Even if every player
behaves rationally,
there will still be a
"whiplash" effect –
because the orders
become successively
larger along the
supply chain
30. SUMMARY OF THE COMPUTATIONAL MODELING APPROACH
Build a computational model to capture your understanding of the system
Use simulations to test the effect of different policies
Find policies that help you reach your targets
Controlling complex systems is hard and even harder when you only have par al control
We o en don't behave ra onally when overwhelmed with informa on and under pressure
Some mes it pays to "have faith in the system"
Small changes can have large e ects
Even if everybody op mises locally, this doesn't necessarily lead to a global op mum
Concrete learnings om the Beer Game
31. TRAINING AI TO PLAY THE BEERGAME
An approach using reinforcement learning
The idea: use autonomous agents to play the game and train them using reinforcement learning, a
machine learning technique.
Agents have
information about
their environment.
They perform
actions and receive
rewards (or
punishments) for
them.
They learn through
trial and error.
32. AGENTS FOR THE BEER GAME
The agents for the Beer Game are very simple
33. Q-LEARNING
A reinforcement learning technique
Each agent has a "Q-
Table", which
defines the
expected total
reward for each
state and each
possible action.
Agents start with an
"empty" q-table and
then fill it by
learning through
trial and error.
Always choose theac on with thehighest reward!
34. THE KEY: SETTING THE RIGHT REWARDS
Much like with us human beings, we need to set the right rewards
A reward for reaching the cost targets (and some milestones along the way)
"Game over" as soon as cost targets are missed (to avoid wasting time and memory)
35. THE RESULTS
Ten episodes 37,500 Episodes (almost
there)
50,000 Episodes
The AI agents can now
play the game
36. THE WINNER IS ...
The agents outperform our initial ordering strategy!
But: the agents are
optimised towards the
concrete game
situation - they would
fail in a more dynamic
stetting.
The ordering strategy
we developed initially
is robust in all ordering
situations.
37. SUMMARY
Reinforcement learning algorithms are quite easy to implement.
Finding the right reward policies is difficult: it is hard to avoid setting rewards to
narrow (much like in real life).
BUT: If you can define clear objectives and rewards, using reinforcement learning in
combination with simulations can be very useful for automating control systems.
38. NEXT MEETUP AFTER THE SUMMER BREAK
Building An Adaptive Enterprise on 24.9.2020
What characteristics define an adaptive enterprise?
Which capabilities and buidling blocks do you need to create an adaptive
enterprise?
How can you get there?
An adaptive enterprise is an enterprise that can flexibly adapt to a
changing economic environment.
Save The Date!
"Virtual Co ee Lounge"
for post-event discussions
39. DR. OLIVER GRASL
Oliver co-founded in 1997 and
has been managing partner ever since.
After reading mathematics and theoretical
physics at Cambridge University (MA
Cantab) and the University of Innsbruck he
later specialised in business engineering at
the University of St. Gallen (Executive MBA,
Dr. oec.).
Oliver’s personal mission is to help his
clients to explore, re-design and transform
their enterprises using his expertise in
enterprise architecture and enterprise
analytics.
transentis
oliver.grasl@transen s.com
+49 173 6546727
+49 30 800937050