The document discusses the impact of climate change and peak oil on marine shipping and navigation, highlighting the reliance on rapid, inexpensive maritime transport in a globalized economy. It outlines the need for alternative energy sources and the role of regulations in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from international shipping. The hydrographic community is identified as instrumental in enhancing shipping efficiency through innovative technologies and practices.

1. The
Effects
of
Climate
Change
and
Peak
Oil
on
Marine
Shipping,
Naviga>on
and
Hydrography
MJ
Casey
IIC
Technologies
1

2. Summary
• We
live
in
a
globalized
world
where
cheap,
fast
and
reliable
marine
transporta>on
is
essen>al
• Post
Kyoto
Global
Climate
Change
regula>ons
will
address
marine
targets
for
Greenhouse
Gas
(GSG)
emissions
• Oil
is
in
finite
supply
and
we
are
likely
near
the
peak
of
produc>on;
we
can
expect
fuel
prices
to
steadily
climb
2

3. Trade
is
Globalized
• JIT
means
no
inventory
• Networked
trade
is
endemic
• We
are
all
involved
• Going
back
to
old
style
trade
is
not
an
op>on
• The
world
is
totally
dependent
upon
air
and
sea
cargo
carriers
3

4. Interna5onal
Nature
of
Auto
Manufacturing
Dodge
Journey:
43%
US
parts
Ford
Expedi>on:
50%
Jaguar
Vanden
Plas
Sedan:
20%
4

5. Globaliza5onCheap,
Reliable
Seaborne
Trade
5

6. Turning
Back
Will
Be
Difficult
Machine
Tool
Produc5on
is
Down
6

7. Kyoto
and
Interna5onal
Shipping
• under
the
Kyoto
Protocol
emissions
from
interna>onal
mari>me
transport
are
not
included
in
na>onal
inventories
or
na>onal
emissions
reduc>on
targets
• The
Interna>onal
Mari>me
Organiza>on
(IMO)
and
the
Interna>onal
Civil
Avia>on
Organiza>on
(ICAO)
are
working
to
build
an
interna>onal
consensus
on
addressing
their
respec>ve
sector’s
CO2
and
other
emissions
7

8. Shipping
is
Green-­‐er
Expected
Growth
of
GHG
Emissions
A1FI:
Fossil
Intensive
A1B:
Balanced
energy
source
A1T:
Technologically
advanced
and
non-­‐fossil
intensive
B1:
switch
to
greener
technology
B2:
regional
focus
8

9. Most
Finite
Resources
Produc5on
Follow
Logis5c
Curve
UK
Coal
Produc5on
9

10. The
Rise
and
Fall
of
Oil
Produc5on
Romania
(‘75)
Texas
(‘72)
Mexico
(‘04)
Alaska
(‘88)
‘04
(‘00)
‘08
Saudi
Arabia
(??)
10

11. M.
King
Hubbert
and
“Peak
Oil”
11

12. Summary
to
here
• Shipping
is
essen>al
• GHG
Emissions
Regula>ons
will
be
applied
to
Interna>onal
Shipping
• Oil,
in
ever
decreasing
supply,
will
rise
in
price
Shipping
needs
alterna>ve
energy
sources
12

13. Post
Kyoto
GHG
Emissions
Regula5ons
• Size
of
current
interna>onal
shipping
GHG
emissions
• Op>ons
to
reduce
GHG
emissions
• Guidelines
for
new-­‐
builds
to
reduce
GHG
emissions
13

14. Energy
Loss
at
Sea
Only
28%
of
energy
goes
into
propulsion
14

15. Op5mizing
Superstructure,
Hull
and
Prop
15

16. Wind,
Solar
SkySails
on
MV
Beluga
Flebner
rotors
on
ENERCON
E-­‐Ship-­‐1
MV
Auriga-­‐Leader
Toyota
Car
Carrier
16

17. Alterna5ve
Fuels
70MW
Hyperion
Nuclear
2030??
Synthe>c
Fischer-­‐Tropsch
17

18. Leading
Contender:
LNG
DNV
suggest
by
2020
all
newbuilds
will
specify
LNG
tanks
and
dual
fuel
engines
18

19. Energy
Efficiency
Design
Index
EEDI
expresses
the
CO2
emission
of
a
ship
design
per
value
for
society,
which
is
taken
as
ton
deadweight
Qmes
ship
speed
for
transport
ships
and
gross
tonnage
Qmes
ship
speed
for
passenger
ships
…conceived
as
a
future
mandatory
standard
for
newbuilds
19

20. Opera5onal
Changes
• Vessel
Speed
Reduc>on
• Beber
Voyage
Planning
• Beber
Logis>cs
20

21. Speed
Reduc5on
21

22. Role
of
the
Hydrographic
Community
To
reframe
the
nau>cal
chart
and
associated
publica>ons
as
aids
to
energy
efficiency
…
Focus
on
minimizing
the
energy
expended
by
ships
though
high
resolu>on
current
surveys
and
models
…
Focus
on
improved
shipping
efficiency
through
improved
under-­‐keel-­‐clearance
depth
and
air-­‐gap
forecas>ng
…
Aid
the
mariner
in
op>mizing
the
voyage
22

23. Voyage
Op5miza5on
(VO)
23

24. VO
(2):
Air
Gap
24

25. VO
(3):
DUKC
Porto
de
Lisboa
Dynamic
Under
Keel
Clearance
25

26. VO
(4):
Ice
Coverage
26

27. Northern
Route
A
Substan>al
Reduc>on
in
GHG
Emissions
(approx.
19,000
T)
GHG
Emission
13,000
T
savings
per
year
20,000,000
T
32,000
T
27

28. Summary
• Shipping
is
essen>al
but
will
come
under
pressure
to
reduce
GHG
emissions
and
reduce
costs
• The
hydrographic
community
can
play
a
part
increasing
shipping
efficiency
through
an
extension
of
well
known
technologies
and
innova>ve
methods
yet
to
be
discovered
28

29. Thank You!
29