UNEP Emissions Gap Launch
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Are the Copenhagen Accord pledges sufficient to limit global warming to 2 or 1.5 degrees C? As governments prepare for the UN Climate Change Conference in Cancun, Mexico, from November 29 to December 10, 2010, a new report spells out what the pledges of the past 12 months by governments might actually mean in terms of putting the world on track to limit global temperature rises. The report, coordinated by UNEP, is an unprecedented partnership between over 30 leading researchers at climate modeling centers and institutes in Asia, Europe, Latin America and North America. Analysis by the World Resources Institute (WRI) is included in the report. The assessment spotlights worst case and best case scenarios up to 2020 while estimating the emissions gaps likely under various outcomes that will need to be bridged in order to avoid ‘dangerous’ climate change. World Resources Institute Senior Associate Kelly Levin was a contributor to the report.
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UNEP Emissions Gap Launch
- 1. The Emissions Gap Report Are the Copenhagen Accord pledges sufficient to limit global warming to 2 C or 1.5 C? November 23, 2010 Washington DC Launch World Resources Institute Kelly Levin, Senior Associate, WRI
- 2. What are we aiming for? Findings from Chapter 2 Global emissions, GtCO2e Range of emission pathways consistent Annual emissions UNEP thanks Joeri Rogelj (ETHZ) and the European Climate Foundation for graphics with a “likely” chance of limiting today of ~48 GtCO2e warming to 2 degrees Median estimate of 44 GtCO2e in 20201 1 The 2020 emissions consistent with the 20th to 80th percentile range of emission pathways with a “likely” chance of limiting warming to 2 degrees is 39 to 44 1 GtCO2e, the median estimate is 44 GtCO2e Source: Adapted from The Emissions Gap report, UNEP, 2010
- 3. Where are we heading? Findings from Chapter 3 Global emissions, GtCO2e Under business-as-usual projections, emissions UNEP thanks Joeri Rogelj (ETHZ) and the European Climate Foundation for graphics could reach 56 GtCO2e in 20201 2 1 This is the median estimate of the 11 studies assessed, estimates range from 54-60 GtCO2e (20th to 80th percentile) Source: Adapted from The Emissions Gap report, UNEP, 2010
- 4. Where are we heading? Findings from Chapter 3 Global emissions, GtCO2e UNEP thanks Joeri Rogelj (ETHZ) and the European Climate Foundation for graphics 53 GtCO2e in the least ambitious pledge case1 – Unconditional pledges – “Lenient” rules2 1 This is the median estimate of modelling groups, estimates range from 52-57 GtCO2e (20th to 80th percentile) 3 2 This relates to rules surrounding the use of surplus emission units (particularly those carried over from this commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol) and LULUCF accounting Source: Adapted from The Emissions Gap report, UNEP, 2010
- 5. Where are we heading? Findings from Chapter 3 Global emissions, GtCO2e UNEP thanks Joeri Rogelj (ETHZ) and the European Climate Foundation for graphics 49 GtCO2e in the most ambitious pledge case1 – Conditional pledges – “Strict” rules 4 1 This is the median estimate of modelling groups, estimates range from 47-51 GtCO2e (20th to 80th percentile) Source: Adapted from The Emissions Gap report, UNEP, 2010
- 6. What is the “gap”? Findings from Chapter 4 Global emissions, GtCO2e There is a gap of UNEP thanks Joeri Rogelj (ETHZ) and the European Climate Foundation for graphics between 5 and 9 depending on how GtCO2e1 the pledges are implemented 1 Note that, given the range in estimates from different modelling groups, and range of potential emission pathways that are consistent with the 2 5 degree limit, the gap can be between 2 and 21 GtCO2e depending on which estimates are compared. Source: Adapted from The Emissions Gap report, UNEP, 2010
- 7. How to reduce the size of the gap? Findings from Chapter 4 • Moving from unconditional (lower-ambition) pledges to – Ambitious action from other countries 2-3 GtCO2e conditional (higher-ambition) – Provision of climate finance – Passing of domestic legislation 6
- 8. How to reduce the size of the gap? Findings from Chapter 4 • Moving from unconditional (lower ambition) pledges to – Ambitious action from other countries 2-3 GtCO2e conditional (higher ambition) – Provision of climate finance – Passing of domestic legislation • Ensuring ‘strict’ rules surrounding: – LULUCF accounting 1-2 GtCO2e – Surplus emissions units – Offset ‘double-counting’ 7
- 9. How to reduce the size of the gap? Findings from Chapter 4 • Moving from unconditional (lower ambition) pledges to – Ambitious action from other countries 2-3 GtCO2e conditional (higher ambition) – Provision of climate finance – Passing of domestic legislation • Ensuring ‘strict’ rules surrounding: – LULUCF accounting 1-2 GtCO2e – Surplus emissions units – Offset ‘double-counting’ • This would still leave a gap of ~5 GtCO2e • It is feasible to close the gap – More ambitious actions – Climate finance 8
- 10. Temperature Implications of the Pledges 9
- 11. Where are we heading? Findings from Chapter 3 Global emissions, GtCO2e UNEP thanks Joeri Rogelj (ETHZ) and the European Climate Foundation for graphics reduction 7 GtCO2e possible as a result of the pledges 10 Source: Adapted from The Emissions Gap report, UNEP, 2010
- 12. What about 1.5 degrees? Findings from Chapter 2 Global emissions, GtCO2e PRELIMINARY RESULTS – FEW STUDIES AVAILABLE Range of “stylized” emission UNEP thanks Joeri Rogelj (ETHZ) and the European Climate Foundation for graphics pathways consistent with a “likely” chance of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees1 1 Specifically, this shows the 20-80th percentile range of the “stylized” pathways that have a “likely” (>66%) chance of limiting temperature increase to 1.5 C by 11 2100 Source: Adapted from The Emissions Gap report, UNEP, 2010