The document summarizes the state of the residential real estate market in 2012. It finds that nationally home sales were up 9% and median prices up 9% while locally sales were up 18% but median prices down 1%. Inventory was down nationally 18% and locally 3%. Distressed sales also declined nationally 11% and locally 3%. The housing market was showing signs of strength with low interest rates and declining inventory making home buying more attractive. However, prices had a ways to go before recovering to 2006 levels and pressure from distressed sales remained a factor.

1. 2012 UNCW Economic Outlook Conference
Residential Real Estate
Market Brief

3. HOUSING MARKET
SHOWING STRENGTH
% Change
NATIONAL SALES vs Last Year
UP 9%
LOCAL SALES
UP 18%
NATIONAL MEDIAN PRICES
UP 9%
LOCAL MEDIAN PRICES
DOWN 1%
30 YR INTEREST RATE
DOWN .65
POINTS
NATIONAL INVENTORY
DOWN 18%
NATIONAL % OF DISTRESSED SALES LOCAL INVENTORY
DOWN 11% DOWN 3%
LOCAL % OF DISTRESSED SALES
DOWN 3%

4. U.S. HOUSING SUMMARY 2012 (In Millions)
133 13
Housing Vacant
Units
26 2.5
30-60 days delinquent
79 No Mortgage
Owned
4.1
12 90+ days or in
120 Negative Equity foreclosure
Households
Occupied 53
with Mortgage
41 5.4
current
with Equity
41 Rented
Source: John Burns Real Estate Consulting

5. Supply & Demand

6. Case Shiller Pricing Index
225.00
200.00
175.00
150.00
According to the S&P Case Shiller price index, residential real
125.00 estate values have returned to 2003 first quarter prices. That, in
itself, says something. However, when you factor in mortgage
rates, the case for buying a home today becomes even more
compelling.
100.00
2000 2003 2006 2012

7. Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale
Months Supply Pricing
SELLERS
1-2 Double Digit Appreciation
MARKET
3-4 Single Digit Appreciation
5-6 Balanced
MARKET
BUYERS
7-8 Single Digit Depreciation
9+ Double Digit Depreciation
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2 National
Wilmington Area
0
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May un Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
NAR

8. Projected Annual % Change in Home Prices
Source 2012 2013 2014
Home Price
Expectation Survey -.4 1.4 2.6
Urban Land
Institute Flat 2.0 3.5
Demand Institute
Study 1.0 1.8 2.5

9. Case Shiller Pricing Index
225.00
200.00
175.00
150.00 At 3% gain per year,
it would take 12
years for current
125.00 prices to return to
2006 levels
100.00
2000 2006 2012 2024

10. Continued Pressure on Prices
As long as distressed homes remain a significant portion of
homes for sale, prices for non-distressed homes will be
under pressure to converge with distressed prices.
Radar Logic 5/31/2012

12. Existing Home Sales
12,247 Homes
Sell Every Day
and 8,940 Buyers
Receive a Mortgage
NAR 5/2012

13. Mortgage Rates – 30 Year Fixed
5.25
5
4.75
4.5
4.25
4
3.75
1/01/2011 Today
Federal Reserve

14. Cost of Owning a Home (Last 20yrs)
Mortgage
Payment-to- Payment-to-
Year Payment
Income Ratio Rent Ratio
(2011 Dollars)
1990 $1,183 .28 1.45
2000 $1,125 .24 1.37
2006 $1,240 .28 1.44
2011 $669 .15 .77
Joint Center For Housing Studies Of Harvard University 6/2012

15. Where Do You Want to Invest Your $
Over the Next 12 Years?
50
ROI January 2000 – September 2012
42%
30
20%
10
1%
-10
-30
-22%
-50
Dow S&P NASDAQ Real Estate
MSN Money.com, Case Shiller