The document discusses resilience and uncertainty from the perspective of an independent management consultant with 20 years of experience in business continuity management. It defines resilience as the ability to resist impacts and recover operational state after an impact through robustness, redundancy, agility, and adaptability. The opposite of resilience is vulnerability to impacts and single points of failure. Uncertainty is an inherent part of risk and business continuity planning, and cannot be eliminated, only addressed. Extended supply chains and organizational interdependence increase uncertainty.

1. Solutions for the real world © 2010, The VR Group Pty Ltd
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2. About me
• Independent Management Consultant
• 20 years in/around BCM related field
– Originally in Mainframe IT & DR
–I t
International BCM client base
ti l li t b
– Consulted to PwC and ANAO on BCM
• To learn more
– http://www blog vrg net au
http://www.blog.vrg.net.au
– http://Linkedin.com/in/kendsimpson
Solutions for the real world © 2010, The VR Group Pty Ltd
All Rights reserved

3. Solutions for the real world © 2004, The VR Group Pty Ltd
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4. The meaning of resilience is ...
• Vague and unclear
• Too many (conflicting) meanings e g
meanings, e.g.
– Resilient Orgs (NZ)
– ASIS Resilience St d d
R ili Standard
– Computer companies
• Becoming (and remaining) resilient is
potentially a ‘wicked’ problem
wicked
Solutions for the real world © 2010, The VR Group Pty Ltd
All Rights reserved

5. My meaning of resilience is ...
• Becoming resistant to impacts and also
being able to recover operational state
g p
after impact
• A function of
– Robustness
– Redundancy
– Agility
– Adaptability
Solutions for the real world © 2010, The VR Group Pty Ltd
All Rights reserved

6. The opposite of resilience is …
• NOT uncertainty
– Resilience can cope with
uncertainty
– Adaptability does not
require certainty
i t i t
• Vulnerability
– Break at low levels of
impact
– Single points of failure
– Rigid hierarchy, silos and
processes
Solutions for the real world © 2010, The VR Group Pty Ltd
All Rights reserved

7. Uncertainty is …
• The reason we are all
here!
• No uncertainty, no
need for BCM
– www.seek.com.au
• A fact of life you
life,
cannot eliminate it
– N t eliminated b
Not li i t d by
“epistemic arrogance”
Solutions for the real world © 2010, The VR Group Pty Ltd
All Rights reserved

8. Risk is ...
• “th effect of uncertainty on objectives”
“the ff t f t i t bj ti ”
• “Uncertainty is the state, even partial, of
y , p ,
deficiency of information related to,
understanding or knowledge of an eventevent,
its consequences, or likelihood”
• “ explicitly takes account of uncertainty,
“... li i l k f i
the nature of uncertainty and how it can be
y
addressed”
» ISO31000
Solutions for the real world © 2010, The VR Group Pty Ltd
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9. Uncertainty is increased by
by…
• extended international
supply chains
pp y
– Small fire in New Mexico
– Bad weather + Salt
shortage in UK/Europe
• growing organisational
i i ti l
interdependence
Solutions for the real world © 2010, The VR Group Pty Ltd
All Rights reserved