Ukraine must take swift and decisive action to defeat the rebels. Diplomatic alternatives offer no further hope. Unless Kiev acts soon the Ukrainian state as we know it will cease to exist. Decisive action by the Ukrainian military will enable Vladimir Putin to distance himself from the rebels re-vitalise political and economic ties to Kiev.
Article in The Times of Israel by Andy Blumenthal: In the end, the question is whose strategy will prove to be the winning one: Russia’s daunting finger on the trigger or even an actual devastating invasion of resource-rich Ukraine to try and safeguard their flank on Eastern Europe or the U.S. gambling that Russia will get mired in a no-win Afghan-like military foray that will bankrupt them financially and morally. As we await the answer to this, the world is learning to disregard and disrespect those that talk bull and goad the bull rather than decisively confronting the threat. We can’t afford the consequences to world peace and stability.
Authors’ note:
A lot is happening parallel since Russia started its invasion of Ukraine on the 24th February 2022. In my bulletin I aim to conclude and share the information what I have gathered either through the support of the European Cyber Community or through my discussions with current and former members of armed forces in Europe. As my main profession – raising cyber resilience for organizations and nations to resist large scale cyber and hybrid incidents – requires me to holistically analyze the impact of multiple events happening parallel, I will not only focus on the cyber space aspect, but on all aspects that I find important to analyze and gain situational awareness with. For the strictly military movement timeline and events or ongoing fights there are many trustworthy resources out there, hence I will not put focus on that, same with each individual topics. This is not a study, I will not provide links and references. Many of the information you can simply search for, some are relying on personal discussions with subject matter experts.
Authors’ note:
A lot has happened in the last 5 days since Russia started its invasion of Ukraine on the 24th February 2022. In my bulletin I aim to conclude and share the information what I have gathered either through the support of the European Cyber Community or through my discussions with current and former members of armed forces in Europe. As my main profession – raising cyber resilience for organizations and nations to resist large scale cyber and hybrid incidents – requires me to holistically analyze the impact of multiple events happening parallel, I will not only focus on the cyber space aspect, but overall. For the strictly military movement timeline and events or ongoing fights there are many trustworthy resources out there, hence I will not put focus on that. This is not a study, I will not provide links and references. Many of the information you can simply search for, some or relying on personal discussions with subject matter experts.
Finally, everything written here is reflecting my own personal view.
Article in The Times of Israel by Andy Blumenthal: In the end, the question is whose strategy will prove to be the winning one: Russia’s daunting finger on the trigger or even an actual devastating invasion of resource-rich Ukraine to try and safeguard their flank on Eastern Europe or the U.S. gambling that Russia will get mired in a no-win Afghan-like military foray that will bankrupt them financially and morally. As we await the answer to this, the world is learning to disregard and disrespect those that talk bull and goad the bull rather than decisively confronting the threat. We can’t afford the consequences to world peace and stability.
Authors’ note:
A lot is happening parallel since Russia started its invasion of Ukraine on the 24th February 2022. In my bulletin I aim to conclude and share the information what I have gathered either through the support of the European Cyber Community or through my discussions with current and former members of armed forces in Europe. As my main profession – raising cyber resilience for organizations and nations to resist large scale cyber and hybrid incidents – requires me to holistically analyze the impact of multiple events happening parallel, I will not only focus on the cyber space aspect, but on all aspects that I find important to analyze and gain situational awareness with. For the strictly military movement timeline and events or ongoing fights there are many trustworthy resources out there, hence I will not put focus on that, same with each individual topics. This is not a study, I will not provide links and references. Many of the information you can simply search for, some are relying on personal discussions with subject matter experts.
Authors’ note:
A lot has happened in the last 5 days since Russia started its invasion of Ukraine on the 24th February 2022. In my bulletin I aim to conclude and share the information what I have gathered either through the support of the European Cyber Community or through my discussions with current and former members of armed forces in Europe. As my main profession – raising cyber resilience for organizations and nations to resist large scale cyber and hybrid incidents – requires me to holistically analyze the impact of multiple events happening parallel, I will not only focus on the cyber space aspect, but overall. For the strictly military movement timeline and events or ongoing fights there are many trustworthy resources out there, hence I will not put focus on that. This is not a study, I will not provide links and references. Many of the information you can simply search for, some or relying on personal discussions with subject matter experts.
Finally, everything written here is reflecting my own personal view.
News translation from mandarin chinese to english @voaWen-Chin (Lucy) Lo
1. “China Stages Military Exercises along Myanmar Border” http://www.voanews.com/content/china-military-exercises-myanmar-border/2810409.html
2.“Will South China Sea Dispute Lead to World War?” http://www.voanews.com/content/will-south-china-sea-dispute-lead-to-world-war/2806950.html
3.“IMF Says China's Yuan No Longer Undervalued” http://www.voanews.com/content/china-yuan-no-longer-undervalued/2793636.html
Gustavo De Arístegui: "Putin Has Lost Touch with Reality, He Considers That W...Lina Maya
The diplomat Gustavo de Arístegui was interviewed on Onda Madrid's 'De cara al mundo' programme and analyzed the difficult situation that the war in Ukraine is causing. The international affairs expert criticized the aggressive stance taken by the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, and assessed the significance it could have.
Newsbud Exclusive – “From the Atlantic to the Pacific”: Vladimir Putin & the ...Chris Helweg
During the Beijing summit, Putin intentionally contrasted the positive prospects of Eurasian integrations “to promote steady development, increase citizens’ incomes and improve education and health care” with the instability, uncertainty, and unpredictability in other regions of the world, including the EU and the U.S. He stated that in the U.S. “an intense internal political struggle continues, creating a nervous atmosphere in both politics and the economy,” while in Europe,
This is presented during a session "Strategic cultures" at the symposium “Lessons of 1914 for the future of Asia” on 14-15 July 2014 held at Temple University Japan Campus. This symposium is organized by Andreas Herberg-Rothe, Faculty of social and cultural studies, University of Applied Sciences Fulda, Germany and supported by the Embassy of the Federal Republic of Germany in Japan.
The article analyzes the structure, content, properties and effects of the
Russian-Ukrainian ‘hybrid war’ in its non-military dimension. Particular emphasis is
placed on the aspect of the information and propaganda war, as well as activities in
cyberspace. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is described in the context of the new war
strategy of General Valery Gerasimov. Contemporary practice of hybrid actions in the
conflict in Ukraine has revealed that, for the first time, a stronger opponent, Russia,
uses the full spectrum of hybrid interaction on an opponent who is weak and unable
to defend the integrity of its territory. The military conflict of 2014 showed not only
the weakness of the Ukrainian state, but also, more importantly, the inefficiency of the
organizations responsible for ensuring international security: NATO, OSCE and the
UN. In the longer term, it should be noted that the escalation of hybrid activities in
Ukraine clearly threatens the states on the Eastern flank of the North Atlantic Alliance.
The analysis conducted refers to the problem defined in the form of questions: what
is the essence of hybrid operations? What is the nature of non-military hybrid operations? What was the course of these activities in Ukraine? How was international law
interpreted in relation to this conflict?
The “green men” who fanned out across Crimea in early 2014, establishing control over key infrastructure and clearing the way for once-marginal political actors to seize the reins of power, were the vanguard of a forced political change that has led to grave human rights abuses across the Crimean peninsula.
How Americans are loved in Vietnam despite a brutal war? How China has to secure global leadership amid so many internal and external challenges? How China is eager to claim a global leadership - while living with Few Friends but with more Rivals? What are the prospective Political Reforms that follows the full commitment to UNIVERSAL HUMAN VALUES, CAN GIVE CHINA A WIDER GLOBAL RECOGNITION AND ACCEPTABILITY FOR ITS GLOBAL LEADERSHIP.
Understanding Russia and Its Relationship with the Westtnwac
In 1994 at the dawn of the post-Cold War era Marieta Velikova left Surgut, Western Siberia in the Russian Federation bound for Weippe, Idaho as a high school exchange student. She returned to Russia with her first glimpses of life in America that would be followed by graduate and doctoral studies at Mississippi State University starting in 2002. She has lived in the United States ever since and is a proud Nashvillian who travels to Siberia twice a year to visit family.
Professor Velikova has a special perspective on US-Russian relations that she will share at this Global Dialogue session including discussion of President Vladimir Putin — how is he viewed among Russians and why does that differ from the view of the West; the situations in Chechnya, Georgia, Crimea and Ukraine; and the issue of US elections.
Six Scenarios How Russia May Use Nukes: Discussion of the unthinkable — The scenarios for Russia to use nuclear weapons.
Russia's war against Ukraine is raising the risks to everyone. It is not a pleasant topic, but one which we must understand for no other reason than we need to be purposeful in watching for indicators that may lead down one of these paths, so we might have the best opportunity in avoiding nuclear tyranny.
News translation from mandarin chinese to english @voaWen-Chin (Lucy) Lo
1. “China Stages Military Exercises along Myanmar Border” http://www.voanews.com/content/china-military-exercises-myanmar-border/2810409.html
2.“Will South China Sea Dispute Lead to World War?” http://www.voanews.com/content/will-south-china-sea-dispute-lead-to-world-war/2806950.html
3.“IMF Says China's Yuan No Longer Undervalued” http://www.voanews.com/content/china-yuan-no-longer-undervalued/2793636.html
Gustavo De Arístegui: "Putin Has Lost Touch with Reality, He Considers That W...Lina Maya
The diplomat Gustavo de Arístegui was interviewed on Onda Madrid's 'De cara al mundo' programme and analyzed the difficult situation that the war in Ukraine is causing. The international affairs expert criticized the aggressive stance taken by the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, and assessed the significance it could have.
Newsbud Exclusive – “From the Atlantic to the Pacific”: Vladimir Putin & the ...Chris Helweg
During the Beijing summit, Putin intentionally contrasted the positive prospects of Eurasian integrations “to promote steady development, increase citizens’ incomes and improve education and health care” with the instability, uncertainty, and unpredictability in other regions of the world, including the EU and the U.S. He stated that in the U.S. “an intense internal political struggle continues, creating a nervous atmosphere in both politics and the economy,” while in Europe,
This is presented during a session "Strategic cultures" at the symposium “Lessons of 1914 for the future of Asia” on 14-15 July 2014 held at Temple University Japan Campus. This symposium is organized by Andreas Herberg-Rothe, Faculty of social and cultural studies, University of Applied Sciences Fulda, Germany and supported by the Embassy of the Federal Republic of Germany in Japan.
The article analyzes the structure, content, properties and effects of the
Russian-Ukrainian ‘hybrid war’ in its non-military dimension. Particular emphasis is
placed on the aspect of the information and propaganda war, as well as activities in
cyberspace. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is described in the context of the new war
strategy of General Valery Gerasimov. Contemporary practice of hybrid actions in the
conflict in Ukraine has revealed that, for the first time, a stronger opponent, Russia,
uses the full spectrum of hybrid interaction on an opponent who is weak and unable
to defend the integrity of its territory. The military conflict of 2014 showed not only
the weakness of the Ukrainian state, but also, more importantly, the inefficiency of the
organizations responsible for ensuring international security: NATO, OSCE and the
UN. In the longer term, it should be noted that the escalation of hybrid activities in
Ukraine clearly threatens the states on the Eastern flank of the North Atlantic Alliance.
The analysis conducted refers to the problem defined in the form of questions: what
is the essence of hybrid operations? What is the nature of non-military hybrid operations? What was the course of these activities in Ukraine? How was international law
interpreted in relation to this conflict?
The “green men” who fanned out across Crimea in early 2014, establishing control over key infrastructure and clearing the way for once-marginal political actors to seize the reins of power, were the vanguard of a forced political change that has led to grave human rights abuses across the Crimean peninsula.
How Americans are loved in Vietnam despite a brutal war? How China has to secure global leadership amid so many internal and external challenges? How China is eager to claim a global leadership - while living with Few Friends but with more Rivals? What are the prospective Political Reforms that follows the full commitment to UNIVERSAL HUMAN VALUES, CAN GIVE CHINA A WIDER GLOBAL RECOGNITION AND ACCEPTABILITY FOR ITS GLOBAL LEADERSHIP.
Understanding Russia and Its Relationship with the Westtnwac
In 1994 at the dawn of the post-Cold War era Marieta Velikova left Surgut, Western Siberia in the Russian Federation bound for Weippe, Idaho as a high school exchange student. She returned to Russia with her first glimpses of life in America that would be followed by graduate and doctoral studies at Mississippi State University starting in 2002. She has lived in the United States ever since and is a proud Nashvillian who travels to Siberia twice a year to visit family.
Professor Velikova has a special perspective on US-Russian relations that she will share at this Global Dialogue session including discussion of President Vladimir Putin — how is he viewed among Russians and why does that differ from the view of the West; the situations in Chechnya, Georgia, Crimea and Ukraine; and the issue of US elections.
Six Scenarios How Russia May Use Nukes: Discussion of the unthinkable — The scenarios for Russia to use nuclear weapons.
Russia's war against Ukraine is raising the risks to everyone. It is not a pleasant topic, but one which we must understand for no other reason than we need to be purposeful in watching for indicators that may lead down one of these paths, so we might have the best opportunity in avoiding nuclear tyranny.
THE CONFLICT BETWEEN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE AND ITS FUTURE SCENARIOS.pdfFaga1939
This article aims to present the causes of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and its future evolution scenarios. In addition to Russia and Ukraine, the United States, European Union countries and NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), a Western military alliance, are involved in this conflict. With the end of the Soviet Union in 1989, NATO was expanded to meet the geopolitical interests of the United States. During the Cold War between the States and the Soviet Union, NATO had 16 countries until 1989, attracting in 1997 another 14 countries that were part of the Eastern European socialist system. More recently, Finland and Sweden joined NATO. All of this is part of the strategy of the United States and its European allies to get closer to the borders of Russia, which is considered, along with China, an enemy of Western powers. The facts of life demonstrate that, for centuries, humanity has been faced with conflicts between great powers that are not resolved through diplomatic means but through military means because we live in a world without a world government and without international law that is respected by all countries, especially by the great powers that seek to impose their will on the world level. Without a world government and a world parliament democratically elected by the world's population, as well as without the existence of a world Supreme Court, there is no way for international law to be effectively applied and respected by all countries. It is urgent for humanity to equip itself as urgently as possible with the instruments necessary to build a world of peace.
Invasion of Ukraine Spotted Weapon Systems and Military VehiclesCharlie
I look into some of the weapon systems and military vehicles being used in the current invasion and defense of Ukraine by Russian and Ukrainian forces.
Американский аналитический центр Атлантический совет обнародовал доклад "Прячущиеся на виду: война Путина на Украине" с доказательствами участия армии России в боейвых действиях в Донбассе
Вашингтонский аналитический центр Атлантический совет обнародовал доклад "Прячутся на виду: война Путина в Украине", в котором, как утверждают авторы, приводятся неопровержимые доказательства участия российской армии в войне против Украины, основанные на общедоступных данных, таких как картографические сервисы Google.
Preserving Ukraine’s Independence, Resisting Russian Aggression: What the Uni...atlanticcouncil
Preserving Ukraine’s Independence, Resisting Russian Aggression: What the United States and NATO Must Do, a joint report by the Atlantic Council, Brookings Institution, and the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, argues that to deter further aggression by the Kremlin and its surrogates, Ukraine urgently needs significant military assistance. Drawing on discussions with senior NATO and US officials, the authors—Ivo Daalder, Michele Flournoy, John Herbst, Jan Lodal, Steven Pifer, James Stavridis, Strobe Talbott, and Charles Wald—argue that in order to enable Ukraine to defend itself, the US government should provide Ukraine $3 billion in both lethal and nonlethal military assistance over the next three years.
If President Vladimir Putin’s military intervention in Ukraine is not stopped, the West can expect further Kremlin provocations elsewhere. Although Western economic sanctions have made it clear that the price of Russian aggression will be the Russian economy, these measures have not been able to curb the Kremlin’s revisionist foreign policy. Providing US military assistance to Ukraine is critical to the country’s defense and to preserving peace and stability in Europe, Eurasia, and beyond.
"SEVEN SCENARIOS FOR UKRAINE: from Triumph to Decline"Ruslan Bortnik
Experts of the Ukrainian Institute of Politics, together with partners, prepared an analytical study "SEVEN SCENARIOS FOR UKRAINE: from triumph to decline." The study, which was conducted for more than 6 months, examines 7 key scenarios for Ukraine, their markers, implementation conditions and consequences.
Tensions between Russia and Ukraine.pdfTalhaNazir18
Pressures between Ukraine and Russia are at their loftiest position in times, but politic sweats are also going full brume ahead to find a result to the extremity.
P2P loans to well established auto finance companies, backed by performing auto loans and recourse to the borrower. An innovation in P2P lending, brought by Symfonie.
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An astonishing, first-of-its-kind, report by the NYT assessing damage in Ukraine. Even if the war ends tomorrow, in many places there will be nothing to go back to.
01062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
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El Puerto de Algeciras continúa un año más como el más eficiente del continente europeo y vuelve a situarse en el “top ten” mundial, según el informe The Container Port Performance Index 2023 (CPPI), elaborado por el Banco Mundial y la consultora S&P Global.
El informe CPPI utiliza dos enfoques metodológicos diferentes para calcular la clasificación del índice: uno administrativo o técnico y otro estadístico, basado en análisis factorial (FA). Según los autores, esta dualidad pretende asegurar una clasificación que refleje con precisión el rendimiento real del puerto, a la vez que sea estadísticamente sólida. En esta edición del informe CPPI 2023, se han empleado los mismos enfoques metodológicos y se ha aplicado un método de agregación de clasificaciones para combinar los resultados de ambos enfoques y obtener una clasificación agregada.
Here is Gabe Whitley's response to my defamation lawsuit for him calling me a rapist and perjurer in court documents.
You have to read it to believe it, but after you read it, you won't believe it. And I included eight examples of defamatory statements/
04062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
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‘वोटर्स विल मस्ट प्रीवेल’ (मतदाताओं को जीतना होगा) अभियान द्वारा जारी हेल्पलाइन नंबर, 4 जून को सुबह 7 बजे से दोपहर 12 बजे तक मतगणना प्रक्रिया में कहीं भी किसी भी तरह के उल्लंघन की रिपोर्ट करने के लिए खुला रहेगा।
03062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
CLICK:- https://firstindia.co.in/
#First_India_NewsPaper
31052024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
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#First_India_NewsPaper
1. Ukraine – Time for Real Action
By Michael Sonenshine
Prague – 31 August 2014 – The Ukrainian government faces a serious dilemma in Eastern
Ukraine. The pro‐Russian forces operate a guerilla war, supported from within Russia. Rebel
forces embed themselves into towns, effectively turning the civilian population into human
shields. Rooting the rebels out comes at a heavy price – high casualties and the devastation of
civil infrastructure.
Unlike Russia, Ukraine is financially not in position to sustain a prolonged conflict. The Ukrainian
government is strapped with high debts. The economy in many regions has virtually ground to a
halt. Winter nears. The prospects of food and fuel shortages grow closer with each passing day.
The range of alternatives for Ukraine is in fact shrinking. Diplomacy unfortunately offers little
hope. Ukraine suggests it will apply for NATO membership. European and US leaders offer
political support in the form of strong words and sanctions, but little else. Political and
economic ties and NATO membership might well be viable in the long term, but in the near term
they won’t solve Ukraine’s fundamental problem.
Reality is that neither NATO nor the EU, nor the United States has the political stomach to send
any significant military support into Ukraine. The Ukrainian government is reluctant to escalate
the conflict for fear of losing support from America and the EU. This is a fact Russia knows well
and uses to its advantage.
Time is running out and unless the Ukrainian government acts quickly Ukraine is bound to lose
its sovereignty. The Ukrainian state as we know it will collapse. Russia will continually send
Trojan horses in the form of aid convoys, humanitarian missions and eventually, peace keepers
into Ukraine. Rebel forces will cross into Russia, load up with fresh supplies and stream back in.
Eastern Ukraine will fall into their hands.
Eventually winter will set in, food and gas shortages will develop, weakening Ukraine further.
The Ukrainian oligarchs will see the handwriting on the wall. They will export what capital they
can and flee, they will hedge the bets and call for changes in the Ukrainian government that are
more pro‐Russian or they will sell the country outright to the Russians. Fear and greed will drive
their behavior. The emboldened rebels will seize the opportunity and head for Kiev. Vladimir
Putin understands this well and counts on it.
There is really only one viable alternative. Ukraine must act now or it will soon be too late. The
Ukrainian government must embark on a bold strategy, escalate the war and isolate the rebels.
Prima facia this seems a frightening thing. Policy makers in the West will wring their hands in
fear that a world war will begin. They will, however, be wrong. This is the only strategy that can
save Ukraine and in fact this is the strategy that will quickly bring the war to an end.
Ukraine’s strategy should incorporate the following elements. Firstly, the Ukrainian military
must be mobilized in much greater strength and much greater numbers than it is mobilized.
Ukraine is faced with the possibility of extinction and it needs to act as if that is the case. This
2. may mean doubling, or tripling the number of troops in Eastern Ukraine. This may mean
committing heavier artillery to the conflict than has been committed. This may mean mobilizing
air strikes on rebel positions.
No army can conduct its mission if it is feels it will lose. Anything short of a fully committed
army that can vastly outnumber and out gun its enemy is a losing proposition. An
undersupported, underfed, underequipped army is bound to suffer casualties and will only be
demoralized. Unless Ukraine dedicates the full resources it is bound for failure.
In World War II one of the turning points was D‐Day, when the United States arrived with a
convincingly large force that could destablise the German army and embolden the Allied forces
elsewhere in Europe.
The second element of Ukraine’s strategy must revolve around sealing off the border to Russia
as much as possible. The rebels are being supplied from Russia, obviously. Restricting border
access means starving the rebels. A convincingly large, professionally run Ukrainian presence on
its border can accomplish the task of building moral, demonstrating the Ukraine’s resolve and
cutting off the supply lines. The rebel forces, faced with short supplies, isolation and a
convincingly superior force, will surrender or melt back into civilian life. Cut off the money and
the supplies and they have no real cause worth fighting for.
The third element of Ukraine’s strategy must be to offer real services and real support to the
population in any town that is not rebel held and to quickly rebuild infrastructure and services in
any area retaken from the rebels. The Ukrainian government must demonstrate that it cares
about the people and about delivering good government services. A population which can’t
move freely around the town, get medical services, enjoy clean streets, running water and
reliable electricity is not a population that will be supportive of any government. In contrast, a
government that offers its people genuine hope and genuine services is a government that will
be supported.
Finally NATO and the EU must offer support to the Ukrainian government in the form of real aid.
They need not send in troops, but they can send more weapons, military equipment and
infrastructure support and humanitarian aid.
To understand why this is the winning strategy requires an understanding of the Russian
mentality and cold‐war game theory. Perhaps one of the most important, yet misunderstood
things about the Russian psyche is the importance and value of not losing. Winning is different
than not losing. Winning means conquering and victory. Everyone likes to win and if Russia can
win Ukraine, of course it will want to do so. But Russia is even more concerned with not losing,
because losing means weakness that is loathe to the Russian psyche. This means that the
second best alternative for Russia must be to be able to find a graceful exit and claim some
victory or success in the process.
The Cuban missile crisis would have ended with military conflict had it not been for the fact the
US offered to remove its missiles from Turkey. Once the US determined to take missiles out of
Turkey Nikita Kruschev was able to claim a victory. He left the conflict better off than he went
into the conflict.
3. Ukraine is not a threat to Russia’s security. Vladimir Putin understands that. The Ukrainian army
is certainly no match for the Russian army. But even the ever popular Putin wouldn’t have much
internal support for sending a serious military force into Ukraine. Already capital is fleeing
Russia.
A serious escalation from the Ukrainian side would deter Russia from exercising greater force in
Ukraine. If, upon crossing the boarder Russian forces were dealt a serious blow Vladimir Putin’s
position would be weakened. Vladimir Putin must be convinced that sending in real forces
would be a disaster. If convincing him means Ukrainian troops must destroy any piece of
Russian artillery and use deadly force against any Russian soldier found in the country, so it be.
The few Russian troops that have crossed the border to support the rebel forces in Eastern
Ukraine won’t sacrifice their lives for the Ukrainians. They cross the border because at this point
they face little or no resistance and they are paid mercenaries. But none want to go into a
battle they will lose. If either they can’t cross the border because it is too well defended or
crossing the border comes at the expense of enough casualties they simply won’t cross the
border. The Ukrainian government will thus eliminate a means of supporting the rebels and
contrary to people’s worst fears, no world war will come.
If Ukraine were able to deliver a convincing military victory two good things would happen.
Firstly, rebel soldiers facing little support would begin disbanding. Second, Kiev would be better
positioned to end the crisis with diplomatic and political initiatives. Kiev should use any such
opportunity well and must ensure that the East Ukrainian political and military leadership gets a
clear path forward to being part of a Ukrainian government that is truly inclusive. Vladimir Putin
can use this opportunity to help repair political schisms, rebuild ties to Ukraine and regenerate a
Russian‐Ukrainian partnership. The business ties between Russia and Ukraine are indeed
strong.
Reality is that countries that can’t defend their borders are countries that can’t survive when a
test of survival comes. Russia understands that and now the Ukrainian government must show
that it also understands this basic principal.
Ultimately the way out of this mess depends on the government in Kiev. If Ukraine wants to
survive as a state it must now take the serious measures and act as if its survival depends on it
because in fact, its survival hangs in the balance.
By Michael Sonenshine
Michael Sonenshine is based in Prague and has lived and worked in Central and Eastern Europe
since 1992. He is CEO of Symfonie Capital, LLC. E‐mail: msonenshine@symfoniecapital.com