The document summarizes how President Trump's policies may impact the GCC region. It discusses areas of potential impact including visa restrictions for some Muslim-majority countries, stronger relations with GCC at the expense of Iran if the Iran nuclear deal is renegotiated, uncertainty around continued US defense support, impacts to trade relationships and oil markets from Trump's "America First" policies, and reputational risks to companies from Trump's use of social media. While some policies may benefit the GCC, others could introduce new economic and political challenges for the region.
With such an unpredictable 2016 behind us where Brexit and the election of new US president Donald Trump sent shock waves through the world, the question is, what can we expect for 2017?
How will Trump’s victory impact the global apparel industry?ThreadSol
This ppt will tell you various implications of Donald Trump’s trade policies on the global apparel industry. Check out the full article on http://stitchdiary.com/will-trumps-victory-impact-global-apparel-industry/
This PPT is from a 2017 presentation for AGP at their national convention. It covers the impact on agriculture from Federal Reserve policies, from the incoming Trump administration and from changing agriculture technology. If you want to find out why a finger with bandaid makes Fed policy difficult, contact us here: http://www.andrewbusch.com/?page=contact
Trump: WHAT THE PRESIDENT-ELECT MEANS FOR FINANCE AND ECONOMICSSusana Gallardo
Donald Trump has upended the global world order. Many of the U.S. president-elect's pledges during the 2016 campaign flew in the face of the liberal market orthodoxy that has predominated since the fall of the Berlin Wall and undergirded the peace since the end of World War Two. Coupled with Britain's exit from the European Union, the free movement of goods and services, people and capital is no longer taken as a precept for future global prosperity in the West.
As the man with the least amount of experience directly relevant to the Oval Office, Trump in some ways represents an option on the economy, markets and businesses, with extraordinary risk and the potential to disruptively transform. As a result, never have the early choices in personnel and policy taken by a president been as consequential as the ones now faced by the New York real-estate mogul and reality-TV star.
By Reuters Breakingviews
Overseas investment case study : Saint-Gobain in Iran Gerry L. H.
Investment project study at ESCP Europe Paris.
This project has been done during my educational program of international project management at ESCP Europe Paris
With such an unpredictable 2016 behind us where Brexit and the election of new US president Donald Trump sent shock waves through the world, the question is, what can we expect for 2017?
How will Trump’s victory impact the global apparel industry?ThreadSol
This ppt will tell you various implications of Donald Trump’s trade policies on the global apparel industry. Check out the full article on http://stitchdiary.com/will-trumps-victory-impact-global-apparel-industry/
This PPT is from a 2017 presentation for AGP at their national convention. It covers the impact on agriculture from Federal Reserve policies, from the incoming Trump administration and from changing agriculture technology. If you want to find out why a finger with bandaid makes Fed policy difficult, contact us here: http://www.andrewbusch.com/?page=contact
Trump: WHAT THE PRESIDENT-ELECT MEANS FOR FINANCE AND ECONOMICSSusana Gallardo
Donald Trump has upended the global world order. Many of the U.S. president-elect's pledges during the 2016 campaign flew in the face of the liberal market orthodoxy that has predominated since the fall of the Berlin Wall and undergirded the peace since the end of World War Two. Coupled with Britain's exit from the European Union, the free movement of goods and services, people and capital is no longer taken as a precept for future global prosperity in the West.
As the man with the least amount of experience directly relevant to the Oval Office, Trump in some ways represents an option on the economy, markets and businesses, with extraordinary risk and the potential to disruptively transform. As a result, never have the early choices in personnel and policy taken by a president been as consequential as the ones now faced by the New York real-estate mogul and reality-TV star.
By Reuters Breakingviews
Overseas investment case study : Saint-Gobain in Iran Gerry L. H.
Investment project study at ESCP Europe Paris.
This project has been done during my educational program of international project management at ESCP Europe Paris
This article aims to explain the new oil crisis and its consequences resulting from drone attacks on two of the main oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter that have heightened tension in the Middle East region, caused a reduction of 5 % of world oil production and rose the price of a barrel on the international market soaring to its highest since the 1991 Gulf War.
The US Presidential Election and its potential impacts on: Trade agreements and the economy, Canadian business, and the Government of Canada’s relations with the White House
The Macroeconomic Consequences of Mr. Trump’s Economic PoliciesSusana Gallardo
This paper assesses the macroeconomic consequences of presidential candidate Donald
Trump’s proposed economic policies. These include his policies on taxes and government
spending, immigration, and international trade. A similar analysis of candidate Hillary
Clinton’s proposed economic policies will be forthcoming
Setting up risk appetite in a more complex trade environment - 6th Webinar FE...FERMA
The webinar is organized by the Federation of European Risk Management Associations (FERMA), the European Confederation of Directors’ Associations (ecoDa) and AIG.
Keynote speakers: Sonia Cambier, Global Head of Insurance & Prevention, Solvay; Fredrik Erixon, Director, ECIPE, and Carolyne Spackman, Vice President/Chief Economist of Country Risk, AIG;Jan Wesseldijk, board member of ecoDa, board member of NCD
Moderated by: Jo Willaert, President of FERMA, Corporate Risk Manager, Agfa-Gevaert
Political Risk Could Undermine the Global Recovery. Review Dun & Bradstreet's research on global trade and the political risks that could impair global economic outlook. Dun & Bradstreet partners with international finance departments, World Bank Governance Indicator publications, and other global economic outlook experts to create comprehensive fiscal world view.
Picor, a Vicor company located in North Smithfield, Rhode Island, provides highly integrated, silicon-centric power conversion and power management solutions. Picor's silicon-centric productss complement Vicor's power technology and adhere to Vicor core strategy of innovation and performance.
This article aims to explain the new oil crisis and its consequences resulting from drone attacks on two of the main oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter that have heightened tension in the Middle East region, caused a reduction of 5 % of world oil production and rose the price of a barrel on the international market soaring to its highest since the 1991 Gulf War.
The US Presidential Election and its potential impacts on: Trade agreements and the economy, Canadian business, and the Government of Canada’s relations with the White House
The Macroeconomic Consequences of Mr. Trump’s Economic PoliciesSusana Gallardo
This paper assesses the macroeconomic consequences of presidential candidate Donald
Trump’s proposed economic policies. These include his policies on taxes and government
spending, immigration, and international trade. A similar analysis of candidate Hillary
Clinton’s proposed economic policies will be forthcoming
Setting up risk appetite in a more complex trade environment - 6th Webinar FE...FERMA
The webinar is organized by the Federation of European Risk Management Associations (FERMA), the European Confederation of Directors’ Associations (ecoDa) and AIG.
Keynote speakers: Sonia Cambier, Global Head of Insurance & Prevention, Solvay; Fredrik Erixon, Director, ECIPE, and Carolyne Spackman, Vice President/Chief Economist of Country Risk, AIG;Jan Wesseldijk, board member of ecoDa, board member of NCD
Moderated by: Jo Willaert, President of FERMA, Corporate Risk Manager, Agfa-Gevaert
Political Risk Could Undermine the Global Recovery. Review Dun & Bradstreet's research on global trade and the political risks that could impair global economic outlook. Dun & Bradstreet partners with international finance departments, World Bank Governance Indicator publications, and other global economic outlook experts to create comprehensive fiscal world view.
Picor, a Vicor company located in North Smithfield, Rhode Island, provides highly integrated, silicon-centric power conversion and power management solutions. Picor's silicon-centric productss complement Vicor's power technology and adhere to Vicor core strategy of innovation and performance.
In this 20 minute presentation, Gerry Brimacombe will talk about migrating files to Office 365, and present some of the tools available. You'll learn about planning a migration, common challenges, and a few tips and tricks from his real life migration projects.
Audience: IT pros, business pros, site admins
Level: 100
Educaterer India is an unique combination of passion driven into a hobby which makes an awesome profession. We carve the lives of enthusiastic candidates to a perfect professional who can impress upon the mindsets of the industry, while following the established traditions, can dare to set new standards to follow. We don't want you to be the part of the crowd, rather we like to make you the reason of the crowd.
Today's Effort For A Better Tomorrow
The future of the united states and of the world with donald trumpFernando Alcoforado
The arrival of Donald Trump to the White House can bring about significant changes in the future of the United States and of the world. Faced with Trump's inaugural speech and campaign pledges, the following scenarios can be seen: 1) advancement of protectionism in the United States and the world; 2) end to the globalization of the productive system and of the free trade; 3) mass deportation of immigrants, especially illegal immigrants from the United States; 4) deterioration of economic relations with China; 5) changes in the world's largest military alliance (NATO); 6) increased military tensions with China and North Korea in the Far East; 7) review of nuclear agreement with Iran; 8) end of climate agreements; And, 9) the formation of a global power agreement with Russia.
The International Crisis Group’s top 10 conflicts to watch in 2018 MYO AUNG Myanmar
https://www.crisisgroup.org/global/10-conflicts-watch-2018
10 Conflicts to Watch in 2018
From North Korea to Venezuela, here are the conflicts to watch in 2018.
These may seem slender reeds on which to rest our hopes. But, as the following list of
the International Crisis Group’s top 10 conflicts to watch in 2018 unhappily illustrates,
and for now at least, they may well be the only reeds we have.
https://d2071andvip0wj.cloudfront.net/10%20Conflicts%20to%20Watch%20in%202018-A4.pdf
10 Conflicts to Watch in 2018-A4.pdf
With 10 months left to run for reelection to the US presidency and facing a congressional impeachment process in which he is accused of using the US diplomatic apparatus for personal and political benefit, Donald Trump personally made the irresponsible decision to carry out an air strike on Iraq's Baghdad International Airport, which led to the drone assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani, chief of Iran's Quds intelligence force, last Thursday (2/1/2020). This Trump measure is irresponsible because it threatens to: 1) compromise the world oil supply and raise its prices affecting the global economy; 2) lead to the end of the nuclear agreement with Iran, paving the way for Iran to produce nuclear artifacts; 3) promote political instability in the Middle East region with the possibility of involvement of US ally Israel and major powers such as Iran's allies Russia and China; and 4) at worst, with all this, contributing to the outbreak of a new world war.
President-elect Donald J. Trump will enter the White House having promised to radically alter United States foreign policy, with ramifications for Americans and the world.
But it’s not yet clear how. Mr. Trump offered vague and sometimes contradictory proposals during his campaign, with few of the typical details or white papers. Voters, foreign policy professionals and the country’s allies are all, to a real extent, left guessing.
Here, then, is a rundown of what we know about Mr. Trump’s foreign policy ideas and what some experts say about their feasibility and likely ramifications.
https://www.crisisgroup.org/global/10-conflicts-watch-2018
10 Conflicts to Watch in 2018
From North Korea to Venezuela, here are the conflicts to watch in 2018.
3. The Rohingya Crisis: Myanmar and Bangladesh
There are two articles below and in the modules section), one di.docxrelaine1
There are two articles below and in the modules section), one discussing the US withdrawal from the Tran Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade negotiations and a second discussing the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). The RCEP was originally the Chinese version of the TPP but now contains many of the countries that were to be TPP participants.
Your job is to evaluate the merits of the US decision to withdraw and the China’s reaction of embracing the leadership for, in effect, recreating the TPP without the US but with some staunch US allies.
There are both political and economic aspects to the actions of the US and China. Use the discussions in class and the other readings assigned concerning trade as well as your ongoing reading of the news. Your assignment is not meant to present an exhaustive review of what has happened and why it happened. It is to demonstrate knowledge of trade, the resulting politics, and the implications for the future…in 2 pages.
The paper is due by 11:59 PM on Sunday March 7. Submission will be though “Turnitin”. Be forewarned: “Turnitin” looks for plagiarism from published papers, and documents from around the world. Plagiarism is not dealt with by the instructor but by the department! Be smart and do your own work…which will make you smarter.
Bring a hard copy to class, please.
As Trump retreats on trade, China moves in
America’s traditional partners already are turning to Beijing.
By
Hans von der Burchard (Links to an external site.)
and
Simon Marks (Links to an external site.)
“Politico”
1/24/17, 8:49 PM CET
Updated 1/27/17, 8:42 AM CET
U.S. President Donald Trump’s crusade against China seemed to backfire on Day One.
Throughout his election campaign, Trump made clamorous promises to challenge Beijing’s ascent to global dominance. He vowed to hold the country to account over currency manipulation and cozied up to Taiwan. He accused Beijing of saber-rattling in the South China Sea and of supine support for nuclear-armed North Korea.
But Trump’s first big move on trade policy —
an executive order to withdraw (Links to an external site.)
from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade deal among 12 Pacific Rim countries — is set to play straight into China’s hands as it seeks to become the undisputed regional power. Angry over the move, America’s traditional trade partners have already this week reached out to Beijing to forge closer commercial ties.
China is perfectly placed to move into the empty space created by the U.S. withdrawal.
Ironically, one of the overriding strategic goals of the Trans-Pacific Partnership had been to triangulate a U.S.-led trade policy that would set technological and regulatory standards in Asia, which China would be forced to follow. The accord was a key plank of President Barack Obama’s “pivot to Asia.”
European Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström also criticized Trump’s protectionist policies on trade and said his policies were “doomed to fail..
Chapter11Economic Instruments271Dateline New NAFTADJinElias52
Chapter11
Economic Instruments
271
Dateline: New NAFTA
During his 2016 presidential campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly referred to the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) as “the worst trade deal maybe ever signed anywhere.” (See the Historical Lesson at the end of this section for details about this agreement.) He promised that on his first day in office he would announce plans to renegotiate it.
Day one came and went with no NAFTA announcement. Instead, Trump’s rhetoric suggested otherwise; he threatened to abandon NAFTA much as he had already done with the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). However, in late March 2017, the administration circulated an eight-page draft that did not contain a threat of withdrawal. Instead, it put forward 272negotiating points consistent with the views of many free trade pro-NAFTA Republicans in Congress.
Just under thirty days later, the pendulum swung in the opposite direction and then back toward negotiation. First, stories emerged that Trump was going to announce a new executive order putting the withdrawal process in motion. This set off a wave of activity, including phone calls from the president of Mexico, the prime minister of Canada, and congressional Republican’s warning against doing so. By that evening, Trump announced that he would not withdraw. The White House asserted that the confusion following word of his upcoming announcement had energized Mexico and Canada into coming to the negotiating table. Critics noted that Canada and Mexico were already at the table, as they had already made trade concessions and were waiting for the United States. Some two weeks later, on May 18, Trump sent a short notice to Congress indicating that he planned to renegotiate NAFTA, a legal necessity (Congress had to be given ninety days’ notice of such a decision). Unlike the earlier draft sent to Congress, this announcement was vague regarding the changes that would be sought.
Negotiations began in August, with the Trump administration defining NAFTA as having “fundamentally failed.” Each country brought its own set of concerns to the table. The United States was concerned with reducing the trade deficit, forcing carmakers to use more parts made in the United States, and increasing U.S. influence in NAFTA’s dispute resolution process. Canada’s main concerns were with low wages in Mexico and right-to-work laws that weakened labor unions. Among Mexico’s primary concerns was revitalization of its energy industry. All three countries agreed that NAFTA had to be modernized to take telecommunications and digital trade into account. This was not seen as difficult, since such provisions had already been incorporated into the TPP and could now be placed into the new NAFTA agreement. More contentious were calls by the United States for a sunset clause that would allow the treaty to end after five years unless all three countries agreed to renew it.
Negotiations dragged on into the spring of 2018. President Trump ...
Topic The US Foreign Policy in the Middle EastIntroductionThe.docxedwardmarivel
Topic: The US Foreign Policy in the Middle East
Introduction
The US foreign policy is characterised by its persistence to prevent any nation or group of nations from challenging American primacy. The US as a superpower wants to make sure that no other players would be able to compete with its economic, political and military dominance. One part of the world that is affected by this foreign policy is the Middle East region, which has witnessed many critical changes, especially after the Post-Cold War. Since this region is rich of natural resources, it has grasped the attention of many players and become one of the most dangerous conflict zones in the world. However, the US foreign policy in that region is still playing a major role trying to preserve unipolar character of the international system, hegemonic position of the USA and its dominance in this region. According to a Pentagon’s document that was published in the New York Times, “In the Middle East and Southwest Asia, our overall objective is to remain the predominant outside power in the region and preserve U.S. and Western access to the region’s oil. We also seek to deter further aggression in the region, foster regional stability, protect U.S. nationals and property, and safeguard our access to international air and seaways. As demonstrated by Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, it remains fundamentally important to prevent a hegemon or alignment of powers from dominating the region. This pertains especially to the Arabian Peninsula. Therefore, we must continue to play a role through enhanced deterrence and improved cooperative security.” (Tyler, 1992) Therefore, the main question that the essay will try to answer is that: Does the US through its foreign policy in the Middle East seek to ensure economic, military and political control over the region? In answering that question, this essay will use three major events happened in the Middle East after the era of Cold War. Those events include the war in Iraq, the Iranian nuclear weapons, and the Egyptian revolution all demonstrate US intention to dominate that region militarily, economically, and politically.
The US Policy Towards the Nuclear Program of Iran
During the last few decades, Iran has been striving to develop its nuclear weapons and that was a source of concern to the US. The two countries went through many negotiations in order to make sure that the deal will cut off all of Iran’s potential pathways to a bomb. Finally, Iran agreed upon a short-term freeze of portions of its nuclear weapons. According to the White House website, “This deal removes the key elements needed to create a bomb and prolongs Iran’s breakout time from 2-3 months to 1 year or more if Iran broke its commitments”. (The White House, The Iran Deal, 2105)
So, when taking into account the case of Iran and its plan of having nuclear weapons, it becomes clear within the negotiations between Washington and Tehran that the US tried its best to prevent the prolifera ...
Will the New Era of Trade Protectionism Under the Trump Regime Make America G...Christiana Wu
The election of Republican candidate, Donald Trump, as the 45th President of the USA in November 2016 marked a new era of trade protectionism. In his inaugural address, President Trump announced his “America First,” policy, effectively advocating a retreat from its traditional global leadership role in promoting more open trade. These sentiments mirror a global movement towards protectionism as evidenced by the British referendum to leave the EU (Brexit) and the wave of nationalism and anti-immigration sweeping across Europe. President Trump’s economic agenda to make America Great Again included several restrictive trade measures ranging from abandoning (TPP) and renegotiating multilateral free trade agreements (NAFTA), to imposing hefty import taxes on errant trading partners whose actions harm American jobs.
In our view, the net impact of these restrictive trade measures are likely to be positive on the US economy as the benefits to domestic manufacturers and American workers via import substitution and reshoring outweigh the costs of protectionism, such as higher prices for consumers and slowdown in trade activity. However, from an Asia-Pacific Economic Corporation (APEC) perspective, which has been repeatedly accused of unfair trade practices, US trade protectionism poses significant downside risks, with major ramifications for Mexico, Canada and China due to their high exposure to the US market. While economic growth of these countries would be in jeopardy due to the slowdown in trade and remittances inflows, possible trade wars between China and the USA would have knock-on effects for other countries that export heavily to China such as Taiwan and Malaysia.
Donald Trump and the future of U.S. leadershipSusana Gallardo
The United States has never had a president like Donald Trump. He is a real
estate investor, golf course developer, casino owner, product brander and
television personality with no prior experience in government or in competing for
elective office. He ran for president on the Republican ticket, but he has no
enduring loyalties to either political party, although he has undeniably tied his
political fortunes to the Republican Party. In decided contrast with other recent
administrations, there is not a single Democrat in the Trump cabinet, and AfricanAmericans,
Asian-Americans, Latinos and women are all minimally represented.
Donald trump trurned himself in in another state...docxAlphaomegaIlc
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Jobs and Protectionism in the Stimulus Package Preside.docxchristiandean12115
Jobs and Protectionism in the Stimulus
Package
President Obama's spending bill promotes the use of
American goods and labor. Despite foreign and domestic
protests, the language is mainly rhetorical
Members of the Senate and the House hash out differences between the two versions of the
economic stimulus legislation at the U.S. Capitol on Feb. 11 Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
By Moira Herbst
The $787 billion spending legislation being signed on Feb. 17 by President Barack Obama is
designed to jolt some life into a moribund economy. Already, though, provisions to use the
money to "buy American"—whether that means American iron, steel, or labor—is sparking a
debate about whether such rules in a global economy amount to protectionism.
Organized labor and small U.S. manufacturers won an amendment to the stimulus bill to ensure
that more materials used on construction and infrastructure are made in the U.S. Critics of the H-
1B visa program won tougher rules governing when banks that are bailed out by the Troubled
Assets Relief Program (TARP) can fill jobs with skilled immigrants.
The final language drew criticism from abroad, where editorials and government officials
warned it could run afoul of trade agreements. But both provisions are less stringent than earlier
versions had been, and neither is likely to have a radical effect on how stimulus spending takes
shape.
http://www.businessweek.com/bios/Moira_Herbst.htm
Opposition from Exporters
The clearest attempt to wall off foreign companies from U.S. spending came in a "Buy
American" provision. That rule requires that only U.S. iron, steel, and other manufactured goods
be used for public buildings and public works funded under the bill. However, it comes with
several key caveats. For one, the language states that the Buy American policy must not violate
U.S. obligations under existing international trade agreements. Nor does the rule apply if
American goods aren't available in sufficient quantities or if they'll increase the cost of the
overall project by more than 25%. Federal highway, transit, and airport projects are already
covered by similar Buy American requirements.
The battle over the provision had been contentious. On Feb. 3, 100 business groups and
companies—including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, General Electric (GE), Caterpillar
(CAT), and other major construction, defense, and high-tech companies—wrote a letter to Senate
leaders warning that a far-reaching Buy American rule "will harm American workers and
companies across the entire U.S. economy, undermine U.S. global engagement, and result in
mirror-image trade restrictions abroad that would put at risk huge amounts of American exports."
But advocates of the provision—including the Alliance for American Manufacturing, a
partnership of manufacturing companies and the United Steelworkers union—said such rules are
needed to stem the tide of layoffs in th.
2. 2
The early days of the Trump
presidency already indicate
a profound shift in US policy
towards the Middle East.
The administration’s immigration
crackdown and refugee ban targeting
seven Middle Eastern and North
African countries prove to be early
tests in diplomatic relations between
the US and regional powers. In
following through on his ‘America
First’ pledge, President Trump is
implementing bold policies that may
very well change the world order.
The GCC will not be spared, as the
region’s governments try to make
sense of an untested leader entering
at a particularly turbulent time. Yet
for all of Mr Trump’s controversy,
GCC governments remain tepidly
optimistic about his arrival.
At the heart of this relationship are
security and economic cooperation.
As former US Vice President Joe Biden
noted on a visit to the UAE last year,
bilateral trade between the US and
UAE alone surpassed US$25 billion in
2015. Defense ties also run deep, as the
GCC proved to be one of the largest
purchasers of US defense technology
in recent years.
While many of Mr Trump’s policies
remain to be seen, the president’s
remarks on key security and economic
issues, such as trade, energy and
international cooperation suggest a
new attitude towards the UAE and the
wider GCC.
This briefing outlines where that
optimism comes from and the hidden
challenges that the region may face.
Visa and travel restrictions
for Middle East nations
The Trump administration sent
shockwaves through the world with
the signing of an executive order
impacting travel to the US for many
from the Middle East and North Africa
region. Citing security concerns,
the order is a far-reaching measure,
which is already impacting countries
and companies in the region. The
order imposes a 120-day suspension
of the US refugee programme and
indefinitely bans admission of
Syrian refugees. Additionally, the
order implements a travel ban on
individuals traveling into the US from
seven Muslim-majority nations –
Iraq, Iran, Syria, Yemen, Somalia,
Sudan and Libya (with certain
exceptions).
The order has been met with
controversy both in the US and
abroad, as politicians, heads of state
and business leaders have reacted to
the new measure. Legal resistance
within the US, and Trump’s firing of
the former US Attorney General Sally
Yates for not enforcing the executive
order, further add to public scrutiny.
2
“The GCC will
not be spared,
as the region’s
governments try
to make sense
of an untested
leader entering at a
particularly turbulent
time. Yet for all of Mr
Trump’s controversy,
GCC governments
remain tepidly
optimistic about his
arrival.
3. 33
An additional controversy is the fact
that many Middle East nations in
which Trump has business interests
– Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and
the UAE – do not face any new travel
restrictions based on the executive
order, a sensitive accusation for the
administration when considering that
President Trump’s latest tax returns
(and the exact nature of his overseas
holdings) have not yet been disclosed.
Still in its very early days, the order is
already having a moderate effect on
GCC businesses, as UAE airlines have
been forced to change their pilot and
crew rosters for inbound flights to the
US.
The executive order will have a
profound impact on the wider
region and the seven Muslim-
majority nations directly named;
however, given that many regional
powerhouses are currently exempt
from travel restrictions, this
measure may only have a nominal
direct impact on the GCC. Regional
businesses and governments will be
watching closely as the legal battles
related to this action play out in US
courts.
Stronger GCC relations at the
expense of Iran…
For the GCC, Mr Trump’s greatest
promise is his pledge to renegotiate
the nuclear deal with Iran, a central
issue of contention the Gulf states had
with the Obama administration.
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of
Action (JCPOA), better known as the
nuclear deal between the P5+1 and
Iran, lifted international sanctions
in exchange for Iran eliminating
its stockpile of medium-enriched
uranium, cutting its stockpile of
low-enriched uranium by 98%, and
reducing by nearly two-thirds the
number of gas centrifuges for 13
years. For the next 15 years, Iran will
only enrich uranium up to 3.67%,
essentially halting any nuclear
weapons efforts for that time but not
dismantling the programme.
During the presidential campaign,
Mr Trump repeatedly bashed the
nuclear deal, saying that dismantling
it would be his ‘number one priority’.
Lieutenant General Michael Flynn, his
nominee for national security adviser,
and Mike Pompeo, his nominee for
CIA director, have both taken a hard
line on Iran as well. That is music to
the ears of Gulf leaders, who felt that
the Obama administration had given
Iran free reign to meddle in the region,
emboldening the country to extend its
influence across the Middle East and
beyond. The lifting of sanctions and a
cash transfer of US$1.3 billion as part
of the deal would provide Iran with
the resources to potentially increase
its support of groups like Hezbollah,
and the Houthi rebels of Yemen, with
whom the GCC states are fighting a
pitched battle.
Yet analysts warn that while Trump
could nullify the nuclear accord, he
would risk isolating the US from the
international community as well as
hamper a possible rapprochement
with Russia. The sheer mechanics
of unwinding the deal, analysts say,
could also make it a non-starter.
…but will the US maintain
defense support?
Trump also singled out America’s
allies, who have not paid their
agreed share in NATO and other
alliances. In stark terms, he warned,
“We’ve defended other nations’
borders while refusing to defend
our own and spent trillions and
trillions of dollars overseas while
America’s infrastructure has fallen
into disrepair and decay. We’ve
made other countries rich while the
wealth, strength and confidence of
our country has dissipated over the
horizon.”
The message was aimed at European
states, as well as South Korea, Japan
and others; however, Trump has
also been critical of US financial and
military support in Middle Eastern
affairs.
In a 2016 interview with the NewYork
Times, then-candidate Trump gave
a similar criticism of US support for
Saudi Arabia for the Kingdom’s role in
the global fight against ISIS, stating,
“We are not being reimbursed for
the our protection of many of the
countries…including Saudi Arabia.”
For GCC countries, this rhetoric only
underscored long-held fears that the
US may be turning away from security
guarantees.
The GCC has been one of the largest
defense spenders in recent years, as
most have reinforced their militaries
and begun to cultivate new alliances
in the event that the US defense
support wanes. His message may have
confirmed their concerns.
Building on trade
PresidentTrump’scampaignpromises
centred on the reinvigoration of US
industry and countering the influence
of multinational institutions, and his
speech reconfirmed his intention to
‘buy American and hire American.’
For countries that have embraced
globalization, that could spell
newfound turbulence.
The UAE may be one of them. US trade
with the UAE stands at about 33.5%
of the total trade with GCC nations.
From 2010 to 2015, US exports to the
UAE increased by 97%, exceeding
US$22 billion. 2015 also marked the
seventh consecutive year that the UAE
was the largest export market for US
goods and services in the region. This
trend continued into 2016, as the US
Department of Commerce states that
trade between the UAE and the United
States reached $12.84 billion in the
first half of 2016, compared with $11.9
billion over the same period in 2015.
In addition to trade, more than 1,500
US organisations have a presence in
the UAE, with an estimated 50,000-
60,000 US citizens living in the
country.
As the relationship between the
US and UAE is largely driven by
US exports, Trump’s threats of
enacting import tariffs on foreign
manufactured goods may have only
a nominal impact on bilateral trade
with the UAE. Meanwhile the dirham
peg to the US dollar will fuel continued
demand for US products and services
in the country.
From 2010 to 2015,
US exports to the UAE
increased by 97%,
exceeding
US$22 billion.
4. 4
As a result, it is unlikely that a move
by the new administration to curb
imports (and the risk for potential
trade wars with other countries) would
directly impact the business interests
of US and Emirati organisations in the
near term.
Oil and energy
A cornerstone of the Trump campaign
was a pledge to lead a resurgence in US
industry, especially in the energy and
manufacturing sectors.
The US energy renaissance of the past
decade made possible by fracking has
presented a dramatic new challenge to
the GCC. The technology has changed
the global supply dynamics, turning
the US – historically dependent on
imports of oil – into a self-sufficient
producer, and more recently, an
exporter.
President Trump has pledged to create
‘complete energy independence’
for the US. This pledge includes a
variety of strategies to increase US
oil production through changes
to regulations and environmental
policies, as well as implementing
measures to encourage investment
in US shale companies to increase
exploration and production activities.
The confirmation of former
ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson to the
position of Secretary of State only
underscores Trump’s determination
in this area.
An increase in US production could
impact an already over-supplied
global oil market, with a potential
increase in production driving global
oil prices lower, impacting GCC
government revenues even further.
Another more dramatic scenario
would be Mr Trump’s pledge to ban
US imports of foreign oil. The US
imports approximately 16 per cent
of its oil from the Persian Gulf, and –
while a ban on imports may reduce
oil production globally, causing prices
to potentially recover – it would have
profound economic consequences and
political implications on the region.
A Trump-induced disruption to the
global oil market would create further
uncertainty in a region already facing
the challenges of over-reliance on
hydrocarbons.
Business interests and
potential conflicts of interest
A controversy surrounding the
new administration is the potential
for conflicts of interest related to
President Trump’s business dealings
in the region. While the president has
pledged to hand over his commercial
interests to his family, creating
what has been referred to as a ‘half-
blind’ trust, his ties in the UAE and
elsewhere remain under scrutiny.
Trump’s business interests in the
region include ties with a luxury
property developer with whom
Trump partnered to develop an 18-
hole golf course described as the
‘Beverly Hills of Dubai.’ Trump enjoys
a longstanding relationship with
that company’s chairman, who was
recently Trump’s guest at his New
Year’s party, in which Trump publicly
praised him as a good friend and
business associate.
The property developer has expressed
interest in expanding its business
relationship with the Trump brands.
Shortly before his inauguration,
Trump announced that he had
declined a US$2 billion deal with the
company, describing it as a potential
conflict of interest.
Despite this specific deal not
materialising, the company’s
chairman expressed hope that the
election of Trump will benefit his
business, telling journalists in January,
“Naturally, I think we will benefit
from the strength of the brand going
forward.”
President Trump maintains that
there is no law or US Constitutional
requirement barring him from
having business interests while
serving as president. As legal and
ethics experts will look into Trump’s
business interests, it is clear that the
organisation’s international assets
will remain a source of controversy, in
both the UAE and elsewhere.
Ultimately, the unlikely rise of
President Trump may prove a mixed
blessing in the GCC. He promises
the region a key change on its most
central issue, but he may also
4
In addition to the policy
implications for the
region, the president has
already used the bully
pulpit (via his Twitter
account) to attack brands
and organisations that
he disagrees with, and
in turn has changed the
global communications
landscape.
“
5. 5
introduce new challenges that
might have a notable effect on the
region’s economies. As the world
works to determine what elements
of Mr Trump’s campaign rhetoric
will transform into actual US foreign
policy, the region’s leaders will
cautiously begin to navigate this new
geopolitical climate.
Communication implications
In addition to the policy implications
for the region, the president has
already used the bully pulpit (via his
Twitter account) to attack brands and
organisations that he disagrees with,
and in turn, has changed the global
communications landscape.
Tweets and remarks complaining
about the costs associated with
government contracts are recent
examples of the unprecedented
reputational risks organisations face
as a result of direct and unprovoked
confrontation from the new
president. In the case of one Fortune
500 aerospace company, Mr Trump
publicly criticised the company’s costs
for government contracts via Twitter,
resulting in shares in the company
falling immediately. While the decline
was only temporary, it was enough to
cause market uncertainty.
Trump’s similar attack on US
automotive companies for
outsourcing automotive production
- and his threats of implementing
a ‘border tax’- created a similar
controversy, which played out in the
public domain.
In an issue that hit closer to home
in the GCC, in 2016, then-candidate
Trump stated his public support for
the US Justice Against Sponsors of
Terrorism Act (JASTA), commonly
known as the ‘9/11 bill’.
The act passed the U.S. Congress
in September 2016, and allows
US citizens to directly sue foreign
governments and entities for damages
resulting from acts of terrorism.
The legislation was met with a swift
negative response from Saudi Arabia
(home to 15 of the 9/11 hijackers),
which has threatened to liquidate the
country’s estimated US$750 billion in
total U.S. assets.
As the controversy plays out between
both governments, a harsh tweet or
remark by President Trump could have
profound commercial consequences
for organisations in the US and GCC.
In a new communications era where
one man’s social media presence
can move markets and impact global
commercial decisions, both US and
GCC companies must consider the
reputational risks associated with
being on the wrong side of the new
administration.
As the GCC is home to a number
of individuals, institutions and
governments with complex and
controversial relations with the US,
it will only be a matter of time before
President Trump turns his criticism
towards organisations within the GCC.
When that day comes, businesses will
need to be ready to respond quickly
and appropriately.
HassanFattahiswiththeAbuDhabi
officeofBrunswick,andJamesAllanis
5
6. 6
Brunswick
Group
Brunswick is an
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specializing in critical
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Brunswick helps clients use
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As a leading corporate and
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advised government
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The Authors
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Partner, Head of Brunswick Gulf
Dubai
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Partner
Dubai
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Partner
Dubai
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Partner
Dubai
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Abu Dhabi
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