This article aims to explain the new oil crisis and its consequences resulting from drone attacks on two of the main oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter that have heightened tension in the Middle East region, caused a reduction of 5 % of world oil production and rose the price of a barrel on the international market soaring to its highest since the 1991 Gulf War.

1. NEW OIL CRISIS AND ITS CONSEQUENCES
Fernando Alcoforado*
This article aims to explain the new oil crisis and its consequences resulting from drone attacks
on two of the main oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter that have
heightened tension in the Middle East region, caused a reduction of 5 % of world oil production
and rose the price of a barrel on the international market soaring to its highest since the 1991
Gulf War. The price of oil has risen by almost 20%. The international reference Brent oil barrel
was quoted at US$ 71.95. The rise was contained shortly after Trump authorized the release of
US strategic reserves if necessary. The impact on oil supply is huge. Saudi Arabia is the world's
largest oil exporter, shipping more than seven million barrels a day.
The attacks hit the largest oil processing facility on the planet, as well as a nearby oil field, both
operated by Saudi state-owned Aramco. Together they account for about 50% of Saudi Arabia's
oil production. It may take weeks before the facility can fully reestablish its operation. Damage
to the Abqaiq and Khurais facilities is extensive, and it may take weeks before oil supplies are
normalized. Yemeni rebels in Yemen claimed the bombing, which would be a response to attacks
by the Saudi-led coalition against them. The United States, which supports the Saudis, insists that
Iran, the rebel group's ally, is behind the offensive. The Iranians in turn deny any involvement in
the episode. These attacks further destabilized the Persian Gulf region, revealing the
vulnerability of Saudi oil facilities of vital importance to the global economy, which has
accelerated the escalating tension between Iran and the United States.
Why would Yemeni rebel rebels attack Saudi Arabia? This resulted from the fact that Yemen, a
country in southern Saudi Arabia, has been experiencing a violent civil war since 2015. The civil
war erupted in the 2011 Arab Spring, when a popular uprising forced then-Yemeni President Ali
Abdullah Saleh, to leave power in the hands of the Vice President, Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi.
Political change did not lead to stability, and by the end of 2014, the Houthi Shiite rebels seized
the capital, Sanah, and toppled Hadi. With the rise of the rebel group, which it believed was
militarily supported by mostly Shi'ite Iran, Saudi Arabia led a coalition of eight mainly Sunni
Arab nations against the Houthis, with the stated aim of restoring the Hadi government. And
that's how the conflict escalated dramatically in March 2015. The Saudis have been conducting
air strikes against Youth Houthi rebels - with US backing - for some time. But its opponents now
only demonstrated their real ability to fight back.
Coalition troops - backed by the United States, the United Kingdom and France - launch air
strikes almost every day in Yemen, while the Houthis often fire missiles at Saudi Arabia. The
United Nations (UN) estimates that the conflict has killed at least 7,290 civilians and left 80% of
the population - 24 million people - at the mercy of humanitarian assistance or protection,
including 10 million who depend on food supplies to survive. Iran has strong ties to the Houthis,
and there is no doubt that they play an important role in developing Yemen's long-range attack
capability, whether through armed drones or missiles. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was
quick to point his finger blaming Iran for the attacks, but he apparently did so before any clear
intelligence was available.
US sources indicated that there were about 17 impact points from the attack, all suggesting they

2. came from the north or northwest - more likely from Iran or Iraq, than from Yemen. Iranian
Foreign Minister Javad Zarif has classified the US accusations as lies. "After the failure of the
'maximum pressure' policy, Secretary Pompeo changes to 'maximum lie'," he wrote on Twitter,
referring to the "maximum pressure campaign" declared by the Trump administration against
Tehran - a series of diplomatic and economic sanctions adopted since the United States
abandoned the nuclear agreement signed between Iran and world powers.
The question now is what will the United States and Saudi Arabia do in response to attacks on
Saudi Arabia's oil facilities? Many analysts say not much. Continuing air strikes by the Saudi
coalition makes no sense because it is only serving to turn impoverished Yemen into a zone of
humanitarian catastrophe. Attacking Iran would turn the Middle East into a global conflagration
with the involvement of Russia and China, allies of Iran, the european countries, and Israel, allies
of the United States, as well as causing the price of a barrel of oil to rise sharply to levels that
would jeopardize the debilitated global economy. Another scenario is the cessation of Saudi
coalition attacks against Yemen in the face of its growing unpopularity in the United States and
Europe and the conclusion of an agreement with Iran that could take place at the UN General
Assembly debate session (at the end of this month in New York).
It should be noted that Iran knows that Trump, despite all his braggadocio and unpredictability,
wants to get the United States out of the military tangle and not get into new conflits. Trump's
most recent intention was to bring back all American soldiers still in Afghanistan in conflict with
the Taliban. The event that precipitated John Bolton's recent downfall was a secret meeting with
leaders of the Taliban movement - officially considered a terrorist organization - scheduled for
Camp David but canceled after the information was leaked to the press (Trump attributed Bolton
responsibility for the leakage). This gives Iranians the ability to apply their own "maximum
pressure" in response to the "maximum pressure" exerted by the United States. There is,
however, the risk that a miscalculation could lead to large-scale conflict, which neither party
really wants.
It should be noted that the sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran a year ago represent a
very high price for the Iranian economy. Iranians cannot afford the cost of a war. But they have
every interest in maintaining the threat of confrontation with the United States by taking
possession of oil tankers or causing damage to Saudi infrastructure. The most likely scenario is
neither war nor a new agreement, but the progressive tension on the 'threshold of war'. The
Iranian strategy, therefore, is to maintain dominance in climbing, create leverage for negotiation
and convey an idea of strength and challenge, according to analyst John Raine in a text to the
International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). This gives Iranians the ability to apply their
own "maximum pressure" in response to the "maximum pressure" exerted by the United States.
If it can increase the cost for Americans and Europeans to continue the pressure strategy, it will.
The consequences of the new oil crisis will be catastrophic for Brazil because of the effect it will
have on rising oil prices on the stagnant economy with no prospect of recovery during the
Bolsonaro administration. This is due to the fact that Petrobras has adopted a fuel price policy
linked to the price of oil in the international market that will make Brazil's economic stagnation
even more intense.
* Fernando Alcoforado, 79, awarded the medal of Engineering Merit of the CONFEA / CREA System, member of

3. the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development by the
University of Barcelona, university professor and consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning,
regional planning and planning of energy systems, is author of the books Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo,
1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para
o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de
doutorado. Universidade de Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e
Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e
Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic
and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG,
Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do
Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global
(Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do
Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e
Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas,
Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil
(Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017), Esquerda x Direita e a sua convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador,
2018, em co-autoria) and Como inventar o futuro para mudar o mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019).