This document provides an overview and analysis of the Greek economic crisis. It discusses:
1) What is not the Greek crisis - it was not caused by exorbitant wage increases as claimed by some, as Greek wages consistently lagged behind productivity.
2) What is the Greek crisis - it is a systemic structural crisis caused by a falling profitability rate for Greek capital and an unequal relationship between Greece and more developed EU economies that deindustrialized Greece.
3) What are the troika Economic Adjustment Programs - the austerity programs implemented since 2010 that have caused GDP to fall 26% and unemployment to surge, while failing to reduce debt as projected due to recession. Alternative strategies like renegotiation
‘Alternative Strategies for exiting the Greek crisis’: paper presented in the 12th Historical Materialism Conference on ‘Austerity and Socialist Strategy‘, SOAS 6-11-2015
The financial innovations and increased integration of capital markets have made the nature of balance of payments turmoil much more complex, than described by firstgeneration models. The severe financial crises, which erupted in 1990's in many seemingly "invulnerable" economies that in most cases were characterised by a balanced budget and a modest public debt have turned away the attention of analysts and policymakers from fiscal variables towards other determinants. The fiscal factors, nonetheless, still remain among important causes of financial turbulences, especially in emerging markets, what has been manifested by the 1998/1999 crises of FSU (Former Soviet Union) economies.
The purpose of this paper is to re-examine the theoretical and empirical links between fiscal sector and the emergence of financial crises, with an emphasis on transition economies.
Authored by: Joanna Siwinska-Gorzelak
Published in 2000
‘Alternative Strategies for exiting the Greek crisis’: paper presented in the 12th Historical Materialism Conference on ‘Austerity and Socialist Strategy‘, SOAS 6-11-2015
The financial innovations and increased integration of capital markets have made the nature of balance of payments turmoil much more complex, than described by firstgeneration models. The severe financial crises, which erupted in 1990's in many seemingly "invulnerable" economies that in most cases were characterised by a balanced budget and a modest public debt have turned away the attention of analysts and policymakers from fiscal variables towards other determinants. The fiscal factors, nonetheless, still remain among important causes of financial turbulences, especially in emerging markets, what has been manifested by the 1998/1999 crises of FSU (Former Soviet Union) economies.
The purpose of this paper is to re-examine the theoretical and empirical links between fiscal sector and the emergence of financial crises, with an emphasis on transition economies.
Authored by: Joanna Siwinska-Gorzelak
Published in 2000
Macro-economical concept applied in Egypt such as : unemployment rate, Economical political power, long run variables and stock market, role of the central bank all that and more you can see under the topic Egypt between black yesterday and welling tomorrow
This article aims to demonstrate that the world is heading towards recession followed by a global economic depression, as well as presenting the solutions to deal with this gigantic problem.
We all know Greece is in deep trouble after defaulting on its debt to the International Monetary Fund. Many Greeks blame the austerity measures for much of the country’s continuing problems. The leftist Syriza party rode to power this year promising to renegotiate the bailout.
The Greek economy is shrinking. At such times one of the tools available with government is to tinker with the currency. Unfortunately the Greeks cannot do so because they share their currency with other nations of the EURO region.
Today’s lesson by Prof. Simply Simple attempts to explain you the story of ‘Greece Crisis’ using an interesting analogy.
Eurozone Crisis : A case study on GreeceAniket Pant
Our group was required to do a presentation for Financial Management on the Euro Zone Crisis. We took the example of Greece and did the study. Here are our slides.
Productivity and wages, dynamics in the euro-system and the role of two-tier ...Massimo Resce
INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE
REASSESSMENT AND PERSPECTIVES OF LABOUR POLICIES
14-15 December 2017- University Roma Tre, Department of Economics
School of Economics and Business, Via Silvio D’Amico 111, 00145 Roma
COLLECTIVE BARGAINING, WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
Productivity and wages, dynamics in the euro-system
and the role of two-tier bargaining
Massimo Resce
EU to save banks but abandon state if Greece rejects austeritySEBgroup
The EU will save its banks but abandon the state if Greece rejects austerity in the upcoming vote on 17 June, SEB’s chief strategist Johan Javeus projects in a presentation where he outlines what might lie ahead for the recession-hit country. Recent opinion polls suggest the country will get a pro-austerity government, but the final outcome is far from certain and since Greek law does not allow more polls until the election, Europe will be flying blind for a couple of weeks.
Macro-economical concept applied in Egypt such as : unemployment rate, Economical political power, long run variables and stock market, role of the central bank all that and more you can see under the topic Egypt between black yesterday and welling tomorrow
This article aims to demonstrate that the world is heading towards recession followed by a global economic depression, as well as presenting the solutions to deal with this gigantic problem.
We all know Greece is in deep trouble after defaulting on its debt to the International Monetary Fund. Many Greeks blame the austerity measures for much of the country’s continuing problems. The leftist Syriza party rode to power this year promising to renegotiate the bailout.
The Greek economy is shrinking. At such times one of the tools available with government is to tinker with the currency. Unfortunately the Greeks cannot do so because they share their currency with other nations of the EURO region.
Today’s lesson by Prof. Simply Simple attempts to explain you the story of ‘Greece Crisis’ using an interesting analogy.
Eurozone Crisis : A case study on GreeceAniket Pant
Our group was required to do a presentation for Financial Management on the Euro Zone Crisis. We took the example of Greece and did the study. Here are our slides.
Productivity and wages, dynamics in the euro-system and the role of two-tier ...Massimo Resce
INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE
REASSESSMENT AND PERSPECTIVES OF LABOUR POLICIES
14-15 December 2017- University Roma Tre, Department of Economics
School of Economics and Business, Via Silvio D’Amico 111, 00145 Roma
COLLECTIVE BARGAINING, WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
Productivity and wages, dynamics in the euro-system
and the role of two-tier bargaining
Massimo Resce
EU to save banks but abandon state if Greece rejects austeritySEBgroup
The EU will save its banks but abandon the state if Greece rejects austerity in the upcoming vote on 17 June, SEB’s chief strategist Johan Javeus projects in a presentation where he outlines what might lie ahead for the recession-hit country. Recent opinion polls suggest the country will get a pro-austerity government, but the final outcome is far from certain and since Greek law does not allow more polls until the election, Europe will be flying blind for a couple of weeks.
Sample university project on economics and politics. No guarantee against inaccuracy or misstatements. The slide deck offers an example of how a group of undergraduate students tackled an open-ended question and structured a deliverable.
Greece probably has until late July to come to an agreement with its creditors before the process of leaving the monetary union would begin. Possible delays in payments to the International Monetary Fund in June shouldn’t prompt the European Central Bank to shut off vital liquidity to Greek banks. By contrast, a default on marketable debt -- specifically the failure of the Greek government to pay 3.5 billion euros due to the ECB on July 20 -- would put Greece close to the exit. The Greek government and its creditors are still likely to reach a deal on a list of reforms before that crucial date.
Project on Greece Crisis and Impact for Economic Environment of Business Renzil D'cruz
: Project on Greece Crisis and Impact for Economic Environment of Business
• financial crisis of 2007–2008
• Greek government-debt crisis
• Causes for deteriorated economic
• Tax evasion and corruption
• Unsustainable and accelerating debt-to-GDP ratios
• Impact of the Greece Economic Crisis on India
India’s Crisis Responses and Challenges
The Greek government-debt crisis was the sovereign debt crisis faced by Greece in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2007–08. Widely known in the country as The Crisis (Greek: Η Κρίση), it reached the populace as a series of sudden reforms and austerity measures that led to impoverishment and loss of income and property, as well as a small-scale humanitarian crisis.[6][7] In all, the Greek economy suffered the longest recession of any advanced mixed economy to date, overtaking the US Great Depression. As a result, the Greek political system has been upended, social exclusion increased, and hundreds of thousands of well-educated Greeks have left the country
A very balanced presentation covering each and every aspect of eurozone economic crisis. A thorough analysis from the start of European Union formation and the further development of the problem of crisis. Also, effect on Indian Economy is pondered upon to make it good piece of word.
I hope it will fulfil everyone's need.
The Greek Financial Crisis has become a major issue in Greece and in Europe. This slideshow will discuss you with the background, effects, reasons, and future outloo k
Money Deficits and Inflation Evidence and Policy Issues of Euro Zone during D...paperpublications3
Abstract: An important lesson from the euro area sovereign debt crisis is that the need for sound economic policies does not end once a country has adopted the euro. There are no automatic mechanisms to ensure that the process of nominal convergence which occurs before adoption of the euro produces sustainable real convergence there after. The global financial crisis that started in 2008 has showed that some countries participating in Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) had severe weaknesses in their structural and institutional set-up. This has resulted in a large and protracted fall in real per capita income levels in these countries since 2008. While there has been real convergence in the European Union (EU) as a whole since 1999 owing to the catching up of central and eastern European (CEE) economies, there has been no process of real convergence among the 12 countries that adopted the euro in 1999 and 2001. This lack of convergence is related to several factors, notably weak institutions, structural rigidities, weak productivity growth and in sufficient policies to address asset price booms. Against this background, several factors appear crucial for ensuring real convergence in EMU: macroeconomic stability, and sound fiscal policy in particular; a high degree of flexibility in product and labor markets; favorable conditions for an efficient use of capital and labor in the economy, supporting total factor productivity (TFP) growth; economic integration within the euro area; and a more active use of national policy tools to prevent asset price and credit boom-bust cycles.
Keywords: Money Deficits, Inflation, Policy, Euro Zone,Sustainability, Monetary Policy, Investments.
Jel codes: H62, H68, H6, E41, E42
Title: Money Deficits and Inflation Evidence and Policy Issues of Euro Zone during Debt Crisis
Author: Dr. Stamatis Kontsas
ISSN 2349-7807
International Journal of Recent Research in Commerce Economics and Management (IJRRCEM)
Paper Publications
As the global financial crisis entered its most dramatic phase, in the second half of 2008, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), many governments and several distinguished scholars advocated expansionary fiscal olicy as the second most effective tool (after monetary stimulus) to fight deep recession and deflation. Now, more than a year later, the previous excitement surrounding the supposed power of fiscal stimulus largely disappeared and instead has been replaced by ising concerns over the sustainability of public finances in many countries. Unfortunately, the previous enthusiasts of the active counter‐cyclical fiscal policy have not always realized the causality between the two.
Authored by: Marek Dąbrowski
Published in 2009
The public debt crisis is not limited to Greece or to the Euro area. In fact, several developed economies face rapidly growing debt-to-GDP ratios, which raise doubts about their long-term solvency. Thus, suggesting that the Eurozone is undergoing a currency crisis or is in danger of disintegration is not the right diagnosis (or at least premature). However, if prudent fiscal policies, fiscal discipline and far-reaching structural reforms are not undertaken soon, both the EU and EMU may face serious internal tensions and obstacles to future economic growth.
Authored by: Marek Dąbrowski
Published in 2010
Since the publication in July of stress test for banks in Europe, everything went quiet on the PIGS debt crisis with no much news during the summer. Things however are boiling again and Greek will come back to the forefront of medias sooner rather than later.
Presentation by Leszek Balcerowicz, Warsaw School of Economics at the Conference "Have We Learnt Anything from the Crisis?" in Riga, Latvia. 17.10.2014
Similar to 'Troika austerity and alternatives in Greece', MOC Brussels lecture (20)
Concepts of structural change Lecture Universidad Computense Madrid 2019Stavros Mavroudeas
“Concepts of Structural Change: Mainstream, Heterodox and Marxist conceptions and the Greek crisis’ – S.Mavroudeas 24-4-2019 Universidad Computense de Madrid
Εισήγηση με θέμα «ΠΡΟΓΡΑΜΜΑΤΑ ΟΙΚΟΝΟΜΙΚΗΣ ΠΡΟΣΑΡΜΟΓΗΣ ΓΙΑ ΤΗΝ ΕΛΛΑΔΑ: ΠΡΟΕΛΕΥΣΗ, ΔΟΜΗ, ΣΥΣΤΗΜΑΤΙΚΕΣ ΑΠΟΤΥΧΙΕΣ ΚΑΙ ΟΙΚΟΝΟΜΙΚΕΣ ΚΑΙ ΚΟΙΝΩΝΙΚΕΣ ΕΠΙΠΤΩΣΕΙΣ» (Πέμπτη 11 Μαΐου, 14.00-15.00, Πάντειο) στη διημερίδα της ΕΕΚΠ
IIPPE 7th International Conference in Political Economy
‘Political Economy: International Trends and National Differences’
School of Economics & Management, University of Lisbon, Portugal
September 7-9, 2016
‘The Political Economy of the EU: an imperialist project in crisis’
Stavros Mavroudeas
Dept. of Economics
University of Macedonia
smavro@uom.gr
Abstract
This paper studies the Political Economy of the EU and Marxism’s position towards the latter. First, it surveys the different approaches – Mainstream, Heterodox and Marxist – that analyse the European integration process. Second, it proposes a Marxist value-theoretic analysis of the EU. Third, it proposes a periodization of the evolution of the European integration. Finally, following from the periodization of the previous section, it studies the current crisis of the EU.
The paper’s central thesis is that the European integration is an imperialist project, organised by the dominant capitals of the Western European countries and aiming initially to stabilize the Western European economies under the US auspices but later to create a competing global pole that challenges US global supremacy. An essential part of this project is the exploitation of weaker economies through a mechanism of transfers of value. This mechanism operates, albeit in a differentiated manner, both within and outside the EU. Thus, it is argued that the European integration is basically divided in two groups of countries: a dominant euro-centre and a dominated euro-periphery. Furthermore, it is argued that the European integration project is constituted on the abovementioned basis and cannot be reformed towards a ‘social Europe’ direction. Following from these, it is argued that the Left should struggle to dismantle this imperialist project instead of trying to reform it.
This analysis is based on a classical Marxist understanding of the theory of imperialism that rejects the ‘globalization’ thesis and maintains that nation-states remain the main agents of the international system. The analysis of the politico-economic structure of the European integration and the value transfer mechanisms (economic imperialist exploitation) follow from this thesis.
Πολιτική Οικονομία των εναλλακτικών στρατηγικών στο μνημόνιοStavros Mavroudeas
Η «Κίνηση για το ΟΧΙ μέχρι το τέλος των μνημονίων» σε συνεργασία με την Ελληνική Κοινότητα Βερολίνου διοργανώνει εκδήλωση με θέμα «Η Πολιτική Οικονομία των εναλλακτικών στρατηγικών στο μνημόνιο».
Σάββατο, 16 Απριλίου 2016, 18:00 στο Ελληνικό Πολιτιστικό Κέντρο Βερολίνου, Mittelstr. 33
Συνέδριο
«Παραγωγική Ανασυγκρότηση της Ελλάδας: Μελετώντας το Παρελθόν Σχεδιάζουμε το Μέλλον»
27-8 Νοεμβρίου 2015
Τμήμα Οικονομικών ΑΠΘ
Τμήμα Οικονομικών Παν. Μακεδονίας
ΙΚΕ Δημήτρης Μπάτσης
«Εναλλακτικά σενάρια δομικής προσαρμογής στην Ελλάδα και το πρόβλημα της παραγωγικής ανασυγκρότησης»
Σταύρος Μαυρουδέας
The greek saga: competing explanations of the Greek crisis - A Marxist altern...Stavros Mavroudeas
This paper reviews the alternative explanations offered to explain the Greek crisis and checks there analytical and empirical validity. The first part focuses on the mainstream explanations. It distinguishes three main versions. The first, stemming mainly from the dominant EU circles, considers the Greek crisis as a historical accident; a case of policy-driven economic imprudence: it is a Greek ‘disease’ which contaminates – through contagion mechanisms – the rest of the EMU. Hence, it is not geared to any structural contradictions of the European integration project. The second version, having more Anglo-Saxon origins, recognizes certain structural causes of this crisis; namely the Eurozone being a non-optimal currency area. It argues that EMU’s fundamental flaws cannot be rectified and its collapse is on the table. The third version is a ‘middle-of-the-road’ blend: while the Greek crisis has national origins it abated existing flaws of the EMU. However, these flaws can be rectified. All these versions are criticized for failing to account for the economic crisis of 2007-8 and its effects on the whole European Union edifice. The second part reviews certain radical explanations offered and particularly those around the ‘financialization thesis’. These explanations are criticized for mimicking the mainstream approaches; particularly regarding the 2007-8 economic crisis. They are also criticized for failing to explain satisfactorily the Greek crisis in both analytical and empirical terms. The last part offers an alternative Marxist explanation of the Greek crisis. This explanation stresses two main aspects. First, it is argued that 2007-8 economic crisis is a crisis a-la-Marx (i.e. stemming from the tendency of the profit rate to fall) and not a primarily financial crisis and this represents the ‘internal’ cause of the Greek crisis. Second, it is shown that – apart from the ‘internal’ cause – there are also ‘external’ causes. These come from the relations of imperialist exploitation that exist within the EU and which relegate a host of countries to the dismal position of the euro-periphery.
Even tho Pi network is not listed on any exchange yet.
Buying/Selling or investing in pi network coins is highly possible through the help of vendors. You can buy from vendors[ buy directly from the pi network miners and resell it]. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
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how can I sell my pi coins for cash in a pi APPDOT TECH
You can't sell your pi coins in the pi network app. because it is not listed yet on any exchange.
The only way you can sell is by trading your pi coins with an investor (a person looking forward to hold massive amounts of pi coins before mainnet launch) .
You don't need to meet the investor directly all the trades are done with a pi vendor/merchant (a person that buys the pi coins from miners and resell it to investors)
I Will leave The telegram contact of my personal pi vendor, if you are finding a legitimate one.
@Pi_vendor_247
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Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
If you are looking for a pi coin investor. Then look no further because I have the right one he is a pi vendor (he buy and resell to whales in China). I met him on a crypto conference and ever since I and my friends have sold more than 10k pi coins to him And he bought all and still want more. I will drop his telegram handle below just send him a message.
@Pi_vendor_247
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when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesDOT TECH
The rate at which pi will be listed is practically unknown. But due to speculations surrounding it the predicted rate is tends to be from 30$ — 50$.
So if you are interested in selling your pi network coins at a high rate tho. Or you can't wait till the mainnet launch in 2026. You can easily trade your pi coins with a merchant.
A merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive quantities till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
Empowering the Unbanked: The Vital Role of NBFCs in Promoting Financial Inclu...Vighnesh Shashtri
In India, financial inclusion remains a critical challenge, with a significant portion of the population still unbanked. Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) have emerged as key players in bridging this gap by providing financial services to those often overlooked by traditional banking institutions. This article delves into how NBFCs are fostering financial inclusion and empowering the unbanked.
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
'Troika austerity and alternatives in Greece', MOC Brussels lecture
1. Stavros D. Mavroudeas
Dept. of Economics
University of Macedonia
e-mail: smavro@uom.edu.gr
Web: http://stavrosmavroudeas.wordpress.com
9/6/2015
MOC Bruxelles
rue d'Anderlecht, 4, 1000
2. Structure of the lecture
1) What is not the Greek crisis
2) What is the Greek crisis
3) What is the troika Economic Adjustment Programs
(EAPs)
4) What are the alternatives
3. EU, mainstream media, Greek elite: the Greek is a self-
inflicted debt crisis
analytical basis: Twin Deficits Hypothesis (TDH):
exorbitant wage increases (ULC)
↑FD (public sector) ↑ trade deficit (private sector)
↑ CAD
Fiscal Deficit (FD) causes Current Account Deficit
(CAD)
(1) What is not the Greek crisis
4. In simple terms:
• Greek public sector workers blackmailed electorally the
government to increase unrealistically their wages thus causing
FD
• Greek private sector workers similarly achieved unrealistically
high wages thus causing falling competitiveness and
consequently increasing the trade deficit and ultimately the
current account deficit
This is a blatant lie:
• FD increased because the state subsidised capital’s profitability
• CAD increased because capital refrained from investing in l-r
competitiveness and resorted to s-r windfall profits
• Wage increases were not exorbitant: they lagged constantly
behind productivity increases
5. This whole argument about wages being responsible for
falling competitiveness is based, in Mainstream
Economics, on nominal Unit Labor Costs (nULC).
This is a faulty argument because economic analysis
knows very well that:
the most competitive economies are high wages
economies (Kaldor paradox)
wages are part of cost competitiveness. But
competitiveness depends also crucially on structural
factors (structural competitiveness)
in Greece, after years of EAPs, wages have fallen
significantly but competitiveness has not increased
(because capital simply increased its profit margins)
6. Greek wages constantly lagged behind productivity
(which increased faster than that of Germany). Thus, real
ULC (i.e. the wage share) have been falling continuously
for several decades.
7. Figure 2. Productivity and Wage
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
Productivity
Real Wage
Productivity: There is a vigorous increase for the period 1960 - 1973 . After 1973 its growth
slows down whilst during the 1980s it remains stagnant. In the beginning of the 1990s it rises
again till the middle of 2000s when it starts to decline bearing similarities with the 1970s’.
Real wage: for the whole period it follows productivity but it never gets higher.
8. (2) What is the Greek crisis?
It is a systemic structural crisis that hinges upon two
axes:
(a) ‘internal’: a falling profitability crisis, not because of
increasing wages but because capital was unable to
continue finding satisfactorily profitable investment
outlets
(b) ‘external’: an unequal relation between the Greek
economy and the more developed EU economies that
deindustrialized and destabilized the Greek economy
and aggravated trade and current account deficits
9. The general rate of profit
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
General Rate of Profit
Figure 5 depicts the evolution of the general rate of profit and from its trajectory we can
discriminate three phases before the onset of current crisis. The first one is the period 1960 -
1973 where the general rate of profit is at a high level though with a small decline. The second
one is the period of crisis (1973 - 1985) when the general rate of profit falls dramatically. The
third period is that of neoliberalism (1985 – 2009) when the general rate of profit displays a
slight recovery and then remains stagnant.
10. The unequal core – periphery relationship between
Greece (and other less developed EU economies) and
EU’s core developed countries is effected through two
conduits:
(a) A structural channel: Greek capitals compete within
the Common Market with more developed capitals.
(b) A policy channel: By, directly or indirectly, ceding the
control of monetary, fiscal and trade policy to the EU
Greek capitalism lost critical means for supporting its
competitiveness and development
This resulted in transfers of wealth from the periphery to
the core economies.
11. Greece’s accession to the Common Market
Shrank the primary sector (that was competitive
(agricultural trade surplus and secured food
subsistence)
Deindustrialized the Greek economy
Greece’s accession to the European Monetary Union
(EMU) deteriorated further extra-EU competitiveness
(because of its high exchange rate) and intra-EU
competitiveness as it facilitated cheap credit (financed
through external and not internal debt) that fueled
western imports. Consequently, it further worsened the
trade deficit and ultimately the CAD
12. Deteriorating Terms of Trade (ToT):
Compare Greece with Sweden and Austria:
(a) Sweden is an EU euro-core economy but not a member of the
EMU.
(b) Austria is an EU euro-core economy that participates in the
EMU.
(c) Greece, Sweden and Austria have approximately the same
population.
The ToT are estimated as the ratio between exports of goods (fob) to
imports of goods (cif).
13. Intra EU15 terms of trade
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
Sweden
Austria
Greece
14. •1963 till 1981 (when Greece becomes a full member of the
EEC): the ToT exhibit an annual growth of 2,1% and
manage to converge with the other two countries, and
especially with Austria.
•1981 to 2002 (when EMU is established): the ToT decline
annually by 0,06% which reveals a loss of competitiveness
in relation with the rest of the EU15.
• Sweden exhibits an annual increase of 0,5% till the 1995,
when it becomes a full member of the EU. From 1995 to
2009 the ToT decline annually by 0,1%.
•Austria exhibits an increase in the ToT till its accession to
the EU (in 1995), by 0,1% per year. From 1995 to 2009 it has
a 1,1% an annual increase.
15. (3) What is the troika Economic Adjustment Programs (EAPs)
From 2010 the Greek economy in the straitjackets of the
troika (EU-ECB-IMF) Economic Adjustment Programs:
severe austerity
Results
Fall of GDP by 26% (2008-2015):
16. Staggering increase in unemployment
From 7.8 (2008) to 26.6 (2014)
Unforeseen increase of the debt to GDP ratio, because fiscal
cuts depressed the economy more than expected (a bigger
fiscal multiplier)
17. 1. EAP strategy
pro-capital
systematic failures (not because it is erroneous from its
perspective (destruction & rebuilding) but because it is very
ambitious and violates dangerously the given social,
economic and political limits of Greek capitalism
Special modification of IMF’s structural adjustment austerity
programmes:
Longer (4 years)
Pro-cyclical and front-loaded
Lacking initially a debt restructuring mechanism
Lacking an exchange rate devaluation mechanism
2 aims:
Short-term: debt viability
Long-term: transform Greece to a European ‘special economic
zone’ (low cost export hub for EU’s multinationals specialized
in low technology goods)
18. Systematic failures: 1st EAP failed (milestones, loan amount,
time horion), 2nd EAP is also failing (the 2020 target of 120%
debt/GDP ratio seems unachievable, given that it is also
illogical)
Causes of systematic failures:
Wages must be pushed to at least Balkan levels
Assets costs must be further diminished
A big part of the Greek economy has to be dominated by EU
multinationals (esp. banking sector, tourism)
These aims imply that:
(a) Workers must be pressed more
(b) The massive middle strata (a traditional systemic support)
have to be proletarianised
(c) Greek capital has to be subordinated further to EU capitals
and lose control of several critical sectors (esp. banking)
These cannot be easily accommodated and a political and/or
social eruption is possible.
19. Basic alternative strategies
Restructuring within
the EU & the EMU
Restructuring outside
the EU & the EMU
EAP
Exit from
EMU
Exit from
EU
Renegotia
tion
(4) Alternative strategies
20. 2. Renegotiation within the EU
2 pillars:
(1) keep one part of the EAP (loans)
(2) renegotiate austerity and structural part for an anti-cyclical, less
austere, more developmental policy
Loan agreements: a short-time pause in servicing them (until the
Greek economy returns to positive rates of growth) while their
tranches will continue. It is not clarified if the accumulation of
interest (and thus the augmentation of debt will continue during
this pause). Reprofilling of the Greek debt. More radical versions:
consensual haircut of Greek debt.
Keynesian anti-cyclical policies with (a) limited amelioration of
workers position: increase of minimum wage, reregulation of the
labour market (firings etc.), nothing concrete about
unemployment and work-time and (b) a measured increase of
public investment.
Structural changes but the different versions of this strategy are
both vague and differ wildly (from acceptance of Memoranda’s
structural changes to radical alternatives).
A European aid framework (either grandiosely called an EU
Marshall Plan or, more bashfully, a wider use of existing fund
21. A non-compatible compromise: Logic of pro-cyclical supply-side
restructuring incompatible with anti-cyclical demand
management. The latter requires more time (than EU is willing to
concede) and is unrealistic in a overaccumulation crisis (a huge
devalorisation of capitals is required). Pro-cyclical restructuring is
closer to capital’s internal logic. Anti-cyclical expansive
restructuring was implemented in Greece after the 1973 crisis with
dismal results.
The only case that there can be a policy mix is if pro-cyclical
restructuring has got hold and proceeds and some measured
interval is deemed necessary.
Several technical miscalculations:
Aid framework: ESPA’s rules are already very lax but Greek capitals are
afraid to participate because of the recession
Pro-cyclical restructuring is organised around the EU ‘special economic
zone’ model: this is incompatible with a rapid revitalisation of internal
demand
The euro-bond proposal (a mechanism for common cheap borrowing)
does not make practical sense.
22. 3. Exiting EMU (within the EU) and restructuring
versions: (a) conflictual Grexit, (b) consensual
Grexit
Short-sighted view: Grexit returns monetary and
currency autonomy but that does guarantee the policy
instruments for a radical productive restructuring
(discreet industrial policy, protectionism etc.).
Import substitution and export increase cannot proceed
rapidly solely through devaluations and if so possibly
lead to rampant inflation. Private initiative cannot
achieve them adequately and in time.
A wide and concise plan for the productive restructuring
of the economy requires a very heavy handed and
expansive state industrial policy and other policy
measures that are prohibited by the Common Market
23. This strategy disregards the deep structural character of the
Greek crisis and tries to confront it only through the
monetary mechanism.
In its consensual version it faces the institutional and vested
interests’ prohibitions of EU.
In its conflictual version it cannot proceed unless coupled
with the exit from the Common Market and the institutional
framework (that is from the EU altogether).
A special problem: consensual Grexit and relegation of
Greece (and other euro-periphery countries) to a currency
one depending on euro (e.g. the pre-euro situation) is the B-
plan of the dominant EU powers. It can be implemented if
the current A-plan goes astray. This is disastrous for
workers’ interests (double devaluation [internal + external],
more severe transformation to a ‘special economic one’).
24. 4. Disengagement from the EU
Recognizes
the deep structural character of the Greek crisis
the incompatibility of an ascent of the Greek economy within
the EU because of the ‘special zone’ mechanism
Proposes:
A self-centered growth model (with strong backward and
forward inter-sectoral linkages) benefiting the working class
and integrated in a socialist transition program
It is organized in a program of short-term, mid-term and long-
term measures
25. Short-term and mid-term measures:
(1) Exiting EU
(2) Debt default
(3) Capital controls
(4) Nationalization of the financial system (and especially banking)
(5) Heavily progressive tax system
(6) A managed exchange rate coupled with special instruments (e.g.
a multiple exchange rates system, international barter agreements,
currency swaps etc.)
(7) A price control system
Long-term measures:
(1) An extensive productive restructuring plan organised by the
state and with state control on the basic and strategic sectors.
This implies an extensive and heavy-handed industrial policy
(2) An autonomous international economic policy.