This document summarizes capital markets performance for major banks in EMEA and Americas regions in the first half of 2015. It shows quarterly revenue and pre-tax profit market share changes compared to peers, highlights top and bottom performers in revenue growth by product area, and analyzes operating cost ratios, productivity and profitability metrics.
Tricumen / Capital Markets: Results Review 1Q14Tricumen Ltd
The top 13 investment banks recorded $54bn revenue in 1Q14: only 6% below 1Q13, and better than expected by most observers. FICC declined by 16% during this period - largely due to persistent weakness in Rates and FX – but this was offset by strong primary issuance and equities revenue.
With banks only trimming headcount during 1Q14, revenue/headcount productivity was largely unchanged from the prior year period except, of course, in FICC. As we forecast in our previous Results Review, another wave of headcount reductions seems to be looming: in early May, Barclays announced a major restructuring and, faced with the continued weakness in FICC markets, we expect other banks will be reviewing their operations too.
That said, we also expect that US banks – which are, generally, better capitalised than their European counterparts – will reaffirm their commitment to FICC (excluding commodities), seeking to grow market share as competitors pull out. In 1Q14, most US banks grew their share of the peer group FICC revenue.
Tricumen FY17 Capital Markets REGIONS_open 030318Tricumen Ltd
Capital Markets: Regions FY17
This publication is supplementary to our quarterly Results Review; it shows banks' capital markets quarterly revenue and semi-annual pre-tax profit and productivity dynamics relative to their peers in major regions. The full dataset includes operating revenue, expenses and pre-tax profit at the Level 3 product detail in 7 regions, as well as normalised client segment revenue allocations, RWA and Equity.
All data is reconciled against the published financial statements. Further detail is available on request.
Tricumen / 1Q15 Capital Markets Result Review_open 110515Tricumen Ltd
Capital Markets: Results Review 1Q15
1Q15 operating revenue totalled $54bn, slightly ahead of $53bn in a prior-year period. M&A, FX and equities put in a strong performance, but this was partly offset by weak DCM loans, credit and mortgages.
Operating expenses grew 4%, from $38bn in 1Q14 to $39bn in 1Q15. Much of the increase was due to litigation charges at Deutsche Bank and RBS, which we allocated to front-line product units; excluding these items, most of the banks in this report increased their operating efficiency.
In March, a member of the ECB’s Executive Board, Yves Mersch (a central banker by training, without any appreciable commercial banking experience), called for the consolidation in the European banking sector, stating that it would result in efficiency gains. That may be, but we doubt this is a good idea in the current environment, characterised by ever-increasing capital and regulatory requirements, fear of ‘too big to fail’ and country-level protectionism. Elsewhere on the regulatory front, the Fed seems ready to introduce even tougher CCAR stress tests.
Rates markets vignettes
Periodically, we compile series of snapshots on markets that have seen interesting developments in recent times. This note includes a selection of such high-level snapshots for Rates markets, with special emphasises on EMEA and Americas.
Tricumen / Capital Markets: Results Review 3Q13/9m13_OPENTricumen Ltd
Capital Markets: Results Review 3Q13 / 9m13
The Top 13 investment banks’ 3Q13 revenue declined 13% versus 3Q12, erasing gains made in 1H13. A sharp decline in 3Q13/3Q12 FICC rates, credit and FX revenue was only partially offset by strong equity derivatives, cash (especially low-touch) and steady prime services.
Headcount reductions continued in 3Q13, but at a slower pace than in 1H13; the focus seems to be shifting to restructuring of underperforming units, rather than incremental cuts. Primary activities and Equities productivity advanced strongly versus 9m12, but FICC dropped sharply.
Among major banks, J.P.Morgan and Citi made greatest gains in share of the peer group revenue; J.P.Morgan advanced across all major areas, while Citi’s gains were largely down to the resilience of its FICC revenues. GS continues to lose ground - the bank acknowledged to having had a tough 3Q13, but suggested that’s all it was; we are not so sure. The UBS’ decline was largely due to its pullout from FICC; the bank’s decline in the share of revenue pool in equities was modest, and the bank gained ground in primary activities.
Tricumen / Capital Markets: Results Review 3Q14Tricumen Ltd
Capital markets operating revenue at the Top 13 investment banks totalled $144bn at the end of 9m14, barely behind 9m13. During the three months of 3Q14, operating revenues reached $43bn, slightly ahead of 3Q13 as strong ECM, M&A, FX and rates offset falls in DCM and equities revenues. The decline in FICC trading predicted by some market analysts did not materialise in 3Q14; on the contrary, only credit revenues declined – slightly. Revenue/headcount productivity rose sharply in FICC compared to 9m13, partly due to banks’ continued trimming of staff in 2014.
Year-to-date operating expenses grew, however, by 6% to $108bn (excluding prop & principal investments), reducing the cumulative pre-tax profit to $31bn, 21% below 9m13. Banking profitability increased during this period by 10%, but FICC and Equities suffered sharp drops. The drop in equities’ profitability was largely due to the weak 3Q14, and was more pronounced among cash equity ‘flow monsters’.
Tricumen 2Q16 Capital Markes Results Review_open 290816Tricumen Ltd
The 1H16 operating revenue reported by banks in this report totalled $86bn. This was 14% below 1H15. 2Q16 totalled $31bn, 12% down versus a prior-year period. In US dollar terms, issuance and advisory fees dropped 28% vs 2Q15 and equities by 20%, while FICC was essentially flat, with several banks reporting a surge in revenue spurred by Brexit. US banks increased their share of the peer group's pre-tax profit.
European Banking Authority's (EBA) stress test, published in July, managed to satisfy almost no-one: some deemed it too benign, others unrealistic. Both arguments make sense: EBA's test did not include sovereign defaults, mitigating actions by banks, Brexit, or an extended period of low-interest rate environment. Also, the EBA's test focuses on prudential regulatory measures which, in our view, do not reflect true market risks - and those, if the US regulators have their way, could feature in Basel 4, along with stronger capital rules for bank leverage.
This issue features reorganised definitions for several FICC products.
CAPITAL MARKETS
Capital markets’ operating revenue totalled US$132bn in 9m16, 5% below the prior-year period. FICC rates and credit outperformed in 3Q16; primary fees and Equities trading revenue declined vs 3Q15; and FICC prop trading jumped 13% as traders capitalised on market volatility. Banks demonstrated strong cost control: 9m16 operating pre-tax profit fell only 2% y/y. At end-9m16, FICC and Equities front-office headcount was 6% and 5% below 9m15, respectively.
Three recent developments are net positive for banks. Regulators in Europe and Japan are siding with banks and are threatening ‘mutiny’ over 'Basel 4'; the industry claims that proposed revisions would hit some regions (Europe) more than others (USA), and regional regulators are very supportive. In the USA, the President-elect Trump seems determined to repel portions of Dodd-Frank. Finally, rumours emerged that some US banks are considering a legal challenge to aspects of the Fed's annual stress tests; even a mention of a legal challenge is extraordinary.
COMMERCIAL/TRANSACTION BANKING
Commercial banking in the USA benefitted from the improvement in net interest margins and an increase in lending activity. This trend was repeated in most major economies across the globe with the mid-cap/SME segment outperforming the large-cap/MNC.
In treasury services, a 6% y/y decline in trade finance activity, caused by weaker trade flows along APAC trade corridors, depressed revenues. This was, however, more than offset by improved payments flows and liquidity management.
WEALTH MANAGEMENT
APAC continues to produce great challenges, but also long-term opportunities. Banks - Credit Suisse and UBS in particular - continue their heavy investment in the region, but compliance concerns are causing some to shed low-yielding clients. In October, Deutsche Bank's former Head of APAC wealth management Ravi Raju, the key architect of the bank's wealth management operation in the region, left to join UBS.
Lending volumes continued to grow, driven by clients' demand for relatively cheap financing.
Investment management and brokerage 3Q16 revenue declined versus the prior-year period, due to client's cautious investment behaviour. As volatility returns to the markets, investment revenues may well recover.
Tricumen / Capital Markets: Results Review 1Q14Tricumen Ltd
The top 13 investment banks recorded $54bn revenue in 1Q14: only 6% below 1Q13, and better than expected by most observers. FICC declined by 16% during this period - largely due to persistent weakness in Rates and FX – but this was offset by strong primary issuance and equities revenue.
With banks only trimming headcount during 1Q14, revenue/headcount productivity was largely unchanged from the prior year period except, of course, in FICC. As we forecast in our previous Results Review, another wave of headcount reductions seems to be looming: in early May, Barclays announced a major restructuring and, faced with the continued weakness in FICC markets, we expect other banks will be reviewing their operations too.
That said, we also expect that US banks – which are, generally, better capitalised than their European counterparts – will reaffirm their commitment to FICC (excluding commodities), seeking to grow market share as competitors pull out. In 1Q14, most US banks grew their share of the peer group FICC revenue.
Tricumen FY17 Capital Markets REGIONS_open 030318Tricumen Ltd
Capital Markets: Regions FY17
This publication is supplementary to our quarterly Results Review; it shows banks' capital markets quarterly revenue and semi-annual pre-tax profit and productivity dynamics relative to their peers in major regions. The full dataset includes operating revenue, expenses and pre-tax profit at the Level 3 product detail in 7 regions, as well as normalised client segment revenue allocations, RWA and Equity.
All data is reconciled against the published financial statements. Further detail is available on request.
Tricumen / 1Q15 Capital Markets Result Review_open 110515Tricumen Ltd
Capital Markets: Results Review 1Q15
1Q15 operating revenue totalled $54bn, slightly ahead of $53bn in a prior-year period. M&A, FX and equities put in a strong performance, but this was partly offset by weak DCM loans, credit and mortgages.
Operating expenses grew 4%, from $38bn in 1Q14 to $39bn in 1Q15. Much of the increase was due to litigation charges at Deutsche Bank and RBS, which we allocated to front-line product units; excluding these items, most of the banks in this report increased their operating efficiency.
In March, a member of the ECB’s Executive Board, Yves Mersch (a central banker by training, without any appreciable commercial banking experience), called for the consolidation in the European banking sector, stating that it would result in efficiency gains. That may be, but we doubt this is a good idea in the current environment, characterised by ever-increasing capital and regulatory requirements, fear of ‘too big to fail’ and country-level protectionism. Elsewhere on the regulatory front, the Fed seems ready to introduce even tougher CCAR stress tests.
Rates markets vignettes
Periodically, we compile series of snapshots on markets that have seen interesting developments in recent times. This note includes a selection of such high-level snapshots for Rates markets, with special emphasises on EMEA and Americas.
Tricumen / Capital Markets: Results Review 3Q13/9m13_OPENTricumen Ltd
Capital Markets: Results Review 3Q13 / 9m13
The Top 13 investment banks’ 3Q13 revenue declined 13% versus 3Q12, erasing gains made in 1H13. A sharp decline in 3Q13/3Q12 FICC rates, credit and FX revenue was only partially offset by strong equity derivatives, cash (especially low-touch) and steady prime services.
Headcount reductions continued in 3Q13, but at a slower pace than in 1H13; the focus seems to be shifting to restructuring of underperforming units, rather than incremental cuts. Primary activities and Equities productivity advanced strongly versus 9m12, but FICC dropped sharply.
Among major banks, J.P.Morgan and Citi made greatest gains in share of the peer group revenue; J.P.Morgan advanced across all major areas, while Citi’s gains were largely down to the resilience of its FICC revenues. GS continues to lose ground - the bank acknowledged to having had a tough 3Q13, but suggested that’s all it was; we are not so sure. The UBS’ decline was largely due to its pullout from FICC; the bank’s decline in the share of revenue pool in equities was modest, and the bank gained ground in primary activities.
Tricumen / Capital Markets: Results Review 3Q14Tricumen Ltd
Capital markets operating revenue at the Top 13 investment banks totalled $144bn at the end of 9m14, barely behind 9m13. During the three months of 3Q14, operating revenues reached $43bn, slightly ahead of 3Q13 as strong ECM, M&A, FX and rates offset falls in DCM and equities revenues. The decline in FICC trading predicted by some market analysts did not materialise in 3Q14; on the contrary, only credit revenues declined – slightly. Revenue/headcount productivity rose sharply in FICC compared to 9m13, partly due to banks’ continued trimming of staff in 2014.
Year-to-date operating expenses grew, however, by 6% to $108bn (excluding prop & principal investments), reducing the cumulative pre-tax profit to $31bn, 21% below 9m13. Banking profitability increased during this period by 10%, but FICC and Equities suffered sharp drops. The drop in equities’ profitability was largely due to the weak 3Q14, and was more pronounced among cash equity ‘flow monsters’.
Tricumen 2Q16 Capital Markes Results Review_open 290816Tricumen Ltd
The 1H16 operating revenue reported by banks in this report totalled $86bn. This was 14% below 1H15. 2Q16 totalled $31bn, 12% down versus a prior-year period. In US dollar terms, issuance and advisory fees dropped 28% vs 2Q15 and equities by 20%, while FICC was essentially flat, with several banks reporting a surge in revenue spurred by Brexit. US banks increased their share of the peer group's pre-tax profit.
European Banking Authority's (EBA) stress test, published in July, managed to satisfy almost no-one: some deemed it too benign, others unrealistic. Both arguments make sense: EBA's test did not include sovereign defaults, mitigating actions by banks, Brexit, or an extended period of low-interest rate environment. Also, the EBA's test focuses on prudential regulatory measures which, in our view, do not reflect true market risks - and those, if the US regulators have their way, could feature in Basel 4, along with stronger capital rules for bank leverage.
This issue features reorganised definitions for several FICC products.
CAPITAL MARKETS
Capital markets’ operating revenue totalled US$132bn in 9m16, 5% below the prior-year period. FICC rates and credit outperformed in 3Q16; primary fees and Equities trading revenue declined vs 3Q15; and FICC prop trading jumped 13% as traders capitalised on market volatility. Banks demonstrated strong cost control: 9m16 operating pre-tax profit fell only 2% y/y. At end-9m16, FICC and Equities front-office headcount was 6% and 5% below 9m15, respectively.
Three recent developments are net positive for banks. Regulators in Europe and Japan are siding with banks and are threatening ‘mutiny’ over 'Basel 4'; the industry claims that proposed revisions would hit some regions (Europe) more than others (USA), and regional regulators are very supportive. In the USA, the President-elect Trump seems determined to repel portions of Dodd-Frank. Finally, rumours emerged that some US banks are considering a legal challenge to aspects of the Fed's annual stress tests; even a mention of a legal challenge is extraordinary.
COMMERCIAL/TRANSACTION BANKING
Commercial banking in the USA benefitted from the improvement in net interest margins and an increase in lending activity. This trend was repeated in most major economies across the globe with the mid-cap/SME segment outperforming the large-cap/MNC.
In treasury services, a 6% y/y decline in trade finance activity, caused by weaker trade flows along APAC trade corridors, depressed revenues. This was, however, more than offset by improved payments flows and liquidity management.
WEALTH MANAGEMENT
APAC continues to produce great challenges, but also long-term opportunities. Banks - Credit Suisse and UBS in particular - continue their heavy investment in the region, but compliance concerns are causing some to shed low-yielding clients. In October, Deutsche Bank's former Head of APAC wealth management Ravi Raju, the key architect of the bank's wealth management operation in the region, left to join UBS.
Lending volumes continued to grow, driven by clients' demand for relatively cheap financing.
Investment management and brokerage 3Q16 revenue declined versus the prior-year period, due to client's cautious investment behaviour. As volatility returns to the markets, investment revenues may well recover.
Tricumen FY16 Capital Markets Regions_open 100317Tricumen Ltd
This publication is supplementary to our quarterly Results Review; it shows banks' capital markets quarterly revenue and semi-annual pre-tax profit and productivity dynamics relative to their peers in major regions. The full dataset includes operating revenue, expenses and pre-tax profit at the Level 3 product detail in 7 regions, as well as normalised client segment revenue allocations, RWA and Equity.
All data is reconciled against the published financial statements. Further detail is available on request.
Capital Markets: Overview
The 13 capital markets banks featured in this note reported 3Q17 revenue of $41bn, 8% below 3Q16. In 9m17, revenue totalled $133bn, unchanged from the prior-year period. Banks' pre-reporting guidance on 15-20% y/y decline in sales and trading revenue was spot-on; but strong issuance and advisory softened the blow somewhat...
... as did banks' careful control of costs, which fell exactly in line with revenue, in 3Q17 and year-to-date. FICC bore the brunt of costs reduction in 3Q17, although the overall headcount remained almost unchanged vs prior year; equities costs were slightly lower, and the cost base of primary issuance and advisory units was unchanged vs 3Q16.
As a result, banks' year-to-date pre-tax profits rose by 13% y/y. European banks' overall profit dynamics matched that of US banks, largely on increased profitability in issuance and advisory; US banks, however, outperformed Europeans in both FICC and Equities.
Commercial/Transaction Banking
In the US, after steadily growing since mid-2016, the volume of new commercial banking loans levelled out in 3Q17. Margins flattened, remaining the same as the previous quarter. In Europe, demand for commercial loans strengthened, especially in France; across the EU countries, margins varied greatly but were in aggregate below 3Q16 levels.
In treasury services, payment volumes continued to grow year-on-year, though at a much slower pace than was the case in 1H17. Trade finance activity remained constrained, with markets falling again slightly. Regionally, Europe posted the strongest growth, followed by the Americas and then APAC.
Wealth Management
The six banks in this note reported 9m17 revenue of US$27bn, 7% ahead of the prior-year period, with all four major revenue streams advancing at a healthy clip. Despite the continued and acknowledged industry-wide pressure on margins, banks' combined 9m17 pre-tax profit jumped by 20% y/y.
Banks' hiring in APAC continues, but there are signs of slowdown, largely as the result of increased competition for talent. Among the banks mentioned included in this report, UBS and J.P.Morgan are taking the long view. UBS (with just over 1,000 client advisors, most of whom focus on UHNWs) is finding talent outside of the private banking industry, then trains them internally; it targets c.250. Similarly, J.P.Morgan favours training and promoting internal talent; the bank's end-target is c.600 regional staff, in small steps. Credit Suisse, by contrast, visibly scaled down the extent of its regional ambition. Finally, Citi and Morgan Stanley made no change to their hiring targets, but plan to hire far less than others.
Tricumen / Capital Markets: Regions 1Q16_open 260516Tricumen Ltd
This publication is supplementary to our quarterly Results Review; it shows banks' capital markets quarterly revenue and semi-annual pre-tax profit and productivity dynamics relative to their peers in major regions. The full dataset includes operating revenue, expenses and pre-tax profit at the Level 3 product detail in 7 regions, as well as normalised client segment revenue allocations, RWA and Equity.
All data is reconciled against the published financial statements. Further detail is available on request.
Capital Markets: Overview
The FY16 revenue of Top 13 investment banks reached $172bn, -2% vs FY15. European banks continue to lose ground: while the US banks grew revenue 2% (4Q16: 17%), EMEA banks' fell 8%. The US banks' lead is even more stark in terms of profitability: their FY16 pre-tax profits surged 44% (and more than doubled in FICC), while Europeans' profits were unchanged as the plunge in FICC profits (partly due to litigation hits) more than offset healthy profits in Banking and Equities.
Global banks reacted quickly to British Prime Minister's announcement that the UK will be leaving the EU single market. Goldman Sachs will shift personnel to Frankfurt, Poland, France and Spain; UBS already started moving staff, 300 of which may go to Spain and many more elsewhere; Citi chose Dublin (900 staff) and Frankfurt, as did Morgan Stanley (300); HSBC may move staff who generate 20% of capital markets revenue to Paris; Lloyds Banking Group picked Berlin for its EU hub; the list goes on. Support roles are most at risk, followed by the front-line equity and rates derivatives. However, top executives reportedly mentioned that Euro swaps clearing business may stay in London, as imposing controls on the currency may damage its reserve status.
Commercial/Transaction Banking
Following a steep growth in loans in 1H17, commercial lending volumes steadied in 4Q16. Banks raised interest rates in December, a move which has continued into January.
In Treasury services, FY16 payments grew 7% y/y with APAC and Americas being the greatest beneficiaries. Trade finance volumes declined 6% y/y in FY16 in the wake of weaker APAC economies and protectionist sentiment in the US and parts of Europe. Citigroup is considering changing its transaction banking platform from 'hub-and-spoke model' to a 'network model' in the light of the Trump administration’s protectionist leanings with regard to global trade. J.P.Morgan is building out its corporate banking presence in southeastern US - and making senior hires.
Wealth Management
Lending revenues grew by 35% y/y in FY16 on higher interest rates.
Investment management and brokerage assets at banks grew by 6-9% FY16/FY15 in the US. The growth in Europe was a more muted 3%; this was partly due to investors - spooked by the political uncertainty surrounding various political events in Europe - being reluctant to invest in fee-earning products. APAC remains a more complex and fluid market, with investors favouring direct, co-investments, such as venture capital, private equity and real estate. APAC recorded the world's highest growth rate in AuM in FY16; some of the banks we track grew market share aggressively and growing AuM at double-digit rates, while others lost ground.
Tricumen / FY14 Capital Markets: Regions_open 250315Tricumen Ltd
This publication is supplementary to our quarterly Results Review; it shows banks’ revenue dynamics relative to their peers in each region and each Level 2 product area. The full dataset includes operating revenue at the Level 3 product detail, operating expenses and pre-tax profit in 7 regions, as well as client segment revenue allocations.
All data is reconciled against the published financial statements. Further detail is available on request.
Tricumen / Capital Markets: Regions 1Q15Tricumen Ltd
This publication is supplementary to our quarterly Results Review; it shows banks’ revenue dynamics relative to their peers in each region and each product area. The full dataset includes operating revenue at the Level 3 product detail, operating expenses and pre-tax profit in 7 regions, as well as client segment revenue allocations.
All data is reconciled against the published financial statements. Further detail is available on request.
Tricumen 6m17 Capital Markes: Regions_open 300817Tricumen Ltd
This publication is supplementary to our quarterly Results Review; it shows banks' capital markets quarterly revenue and semi-annual pre-tax profit and productivity dynamics relative to their peers in major regions. The full dataset includes operating revenue, expenses and pre-tax profit at the Level 3 product detail in 7 regions, as well as normalised client segment revenue allocations, RWA and Equity.
All data is reconciled against the published financial statements. Further detail is available on request.
RWA dynamics FY11-FY14E
European banks included in this note reduced their RWA much more aggressively than their US peers, and have enjoyed a far greater improvement in FY11-FY14E revenue/RWA, largely due to their faster adoption of Basel 3.
In securitisation, credit and commodities, the key driver of RWA returns for US banks was revenue; Europeans, by contrast, relied somewhat more on RWA. European banks have outperformed in equities; their area of focus in recent times.
Tricumen / 4Q14 Capital Markets Result Review_open 050315Tricumen Ltd
Capital Markets: Results Review 4Q14 / FY14
The FY14 operating revenue at the Top 13 banks totalled $182bn, 4% below FY13, as slight growth in primary fees was offset by a weak FICC (especially in credit) and soft equities (largely due to the weak 3Q14). Banks matched the fall in revenue with reduction in front office staff.
Operating expenses in FY14 amounted to $142bn, +7% y/y. Most banks cut comp & benefits in 4Q14, partly due to EU regulators limiting the size of bonuses (The UK unsuccessfully challenged this in court); Morgan Stanley, by contrast, cut the deferred level of bonuses and accelerated the vesting of cash awards. Litigation, compliance and IT spend all grew, in some cases sharply.
The US and EU regulators may be softening their stance on ‘risky’ banking activities. In the EU, there are signs that regulators’ concern about the reduction in liquidity in some markets may lead them to ditch plans for the separation of trading activities; and in the US, The Fed granted banks at least two years reprieve from the ‘Volcker Rule’.
In this analysis we look at institutional exposure to Continental European issuers and analyse trends based on style attributes, geographic exposure as well as identify top investment houses.
Tricumen FY16 Capital Markets Regions_open 100317Tricumen Ltd
This publication is supplementary to our quarterly Results Review; it shows banks' capital markets quarterly revenue and semi-annual pre-tax profit and productivity dynamics relative to their peers in major regions. The full dataset includes operating revenue, expenses and pre-tax profit at the Level 3 product detail in 7 regions, as well as normalised client segment revenue allocations, RWA and Equity.
All data is reconciled against the published financial statements. Further detail is available on request.
Capital Markets: Overview
The 13 capital markets banks featured in this note reported 3Q17 revenue of $41bn, 8% below 3Q16. In 9m17, revenue totalled $133bn, unchanged from the prior-year period. Banks' pre-reporting guidance on 15-20% y/y decline in sales and trading revenue was spot-on; but strong issuance and advisory softened the blow somewhat...
... as did banks' careful control of costs, which fell exactly in line with revenue, in 3Q17 and year-to-date. FICC bore the brunt of costs reduction in 3Q17, although the overall headcount remained almost unchanged vs prior year; equities costs were slightly lower, and the cost base of primary issuance and advisory units was unchanged vs 3Q16.
As a result, banks' year-to-date pre-tax profits rose by 13% y/y. European banks' overall profit dynamics matched that of US banks, largely on increased profitability in issuance and advisory; US banks, however, outperformed Europeans in both FICC and Equities.
Commercial/Transaction Banking
In the US, after steadily growing since mid-2016, the volume of new commercial banking loans levelled out in 3Q17. Margins flattened, remaining the same as the previous quarter. In Europe, demand for commercial loans strengthened, especially in France; across the EU countries, margins varied greatly but were in aggregate below 3Q16 levels.
In treasury services, payment volumes continued to grow year-on-year, though at a much slower pace than was the case in 1H17. Trade finance activity remained constrained, with markets falling again slightly. Regionally, Europe posted the strongest growth, followed by the Americas and then APAC.
Wealth Management
The six banks in this note reported 9m17 revenue of US$27bn, 7% ahead of the prior-year period, with all four major revenue streams advancing at a healthy clip. Despite the continued and acknowledged industry-wide pressure on margins, banks' combined 9m17 pre-tax profit jumped by 20% y/y.
Banks' hiring in APAC continues, but there are signs of slowdown, largely as the result of increased competition for talent. Among the banks mentioned included in this report, UBS and J.P.Morgan are taking the long view. UBS (with just over 1,000 client advisors, most of whom focus on UHNWs) is finding talent outside of the private banking industry, then trains them internally; it targets c.250. Similarly, J.P.Morgan favours training and promoting internal talent; the bank's end-target is c.600 regional staff, in small steps. Credit Suisse, by contrast, visibly scaled down the extent of its regional ambition. Finally, Citi and Morgan Stanley made no change to their hiring targets, but plan to hire far less than others.
Tricumen / Capital Markets: Regions 1Q16_open 260516Tricumen Ltd
This publication is supplementary to our quarterly Results Review; it shows banks' capital markets quarterly revenue and semi-annual pre-tax profit and productivity dynamics relative to their peers in major regions. The full dataset includes operating revenue, expenses and pre-tax profit at the Level 3 product detail in 7 regions, as well as normalised client segment revenue allocations, RWA and Equity.
All data is reconciled against the published financial statements. Further detail is available on request.
Capital Markets: Overview
The FY16 revenue of Top 13 investment banks reached $172bn, -2% vs FY15. European banks continue to lose ground: while the US banks grew revenue 2% (4Q16: 17%), EMEA banks' fell 8%. The US banks' lead is even more stark in terms of profitability: their FY16 pre-tax profits surged 44% (and more than doubled in FICC), while Europeans' profits were unchanged as the plunge in FICC profits (partly due to litigation hits) more than offset healthy profits in Banking and Equities.
Global banks reacted quickly to British Prime Minister's announcement that the UK will be leaving the EU single market. Goldman Sachs will shift personnel to Frankfurt, Poland, France and Spain; UBS already started moving staff, 300 of which may go to Spain and many more elsewhere; Citi chose Dublin (900 staff) and Frankfurt, as did Morgan Stanley (300); HSBC may move staff who generate 20% of capital markets revenue to Paris; Lloyds Banking Group picked Berlin for its EU hub; the list goes on. Support roles are most at risk, followed by the front-line equity and rates derivatives. However, top executives reportedly mentioned that Euro swaps clearing business may stay in London, as imposing controls on the currency may damage its reserve status.
Commercial/Transaction Banking
Following a steep growth in loans in 1H17, commercial lending volumes steadied in 4Q16. Banks raised interest rates in December, a move which has continued into January.
In Treasury services, FY16 payments grew 7% y/y with APAC and Americas being the greatest beneficiaries. Trade finance volumes declined 6% y/y in FY16 in the wake of weaker APAC economies and protectionist sentiment in the US and parts of Europe. Citigroup is considering changing its transaction banking platform from 'hub-and-spoke model' to a 'network model' in the light of the Trump administration’s protectionist leanings with regard to global trade. J.P.Morgan is building out its corporate banking presence in southeastern US - and making senior hires.
Wealth Management
Lending revenues grew by 35% y/y in FY16 on higher interest rates.
Investment management and brokerage assets at banks grew by 6-9% FY16/FY15 in the US. The growth in Europe was a more muted 3%; this was partly due to investors - spooked by the political uncertainty surrounding various political events in Europe - being reluctant to invest in fee-earning products. APAC remains a more complex and fluid market, with investors favouring direct, co-investments, such as venture capital, private equity and real estate. APAC recorded the world's highest growth rate in AuM in FY16; some of the banks we track grew market share aggressively and growing AuM at double-digit rates, while others lost ground.
Tricumen / FY14 Capital Markets: Regions_open 250315Tricumen Ltd
This publication is supplementary to our quarterly Results Review; it shows banks’ revenue dynamics relative to their peers in each region and each Level 2 product area. The full dataset includes operating revenue at the Level 3 product detail, operating expenses and pre-tax profit in 7 regions, as well as client segment revenue allocations.
All data is reconciled against the published financial statements. Further detail is available on request.
Tricumen / Capital Markets: Regions 1Q15Tricumen Ltd
This publication is supplementary to our quarterly Results Review; it shows banks’ revenue dynamics relative to their peers in each region and each product area. The full dataset includes operating revenue at the Level 3 product detail, operating expenses and pre-tax profit in 7 regions, as well as client segment revenue allocations.
All data is reconciled against the published financial statements. Further detail is available on request.
Tricumen 6m17 Capital Markes: Regions_open 300817Tricumen Ltd
This publication is supplementary to our quarterly Results Review; it shows banks' capital markets quarterly revenue and semi-annual pre-tax profit and productivity dynamics relative to their peers in major regions. The full dataset includes operating revenue, expenses and pre-tax profit at the Level 3 product detail in 7 regions, as well as normalised client segment revenue allocations, RWA and Equity.
All data is reconciled against the published financial statements. Further detail is available on request.
RWA dynamics FY11-FY14E
European banks included in this note reduced their RWA much more aggressively than their US peers, and have enjoyed a far greater improvement in FY11-FY14E revenue/RWA, largely due to their faster adoption of Basel 3.
In securitisation, credit and commodities, the key driver of RWA returns for US banks was revenue; Europeans, by contrast, relied somewhat more on RWA. European banks have outperformed in equities; their area of focus in recent times.
Tricumen / 4Q14 Capital Markets Result Review_open 050315Tricumen Ltd
Capital Markets: Results Review 4Q14 / FY14
The FY14 operating revenue at the Top 13 banks totalled $182bn, 4% below FY13, as slight growth in primary fees was offset by a weak FICC (especially in credit) and soft equities (largely due to the weak 3Q14). Banks matched the fall in revenue with reduction in front office staff.
Operating expenses in FY14 amounted to $142bn, +7% y/y. Most banks cut comp & benefits in 4Q14, partly due to EU regulators limiting the size of bonuses (The UK unsuccessfully challenged this in court); Morgan Stanley, by contrast, cut the deferred level of bonuses and accelerated the vesting of cash awards. Litigation, compliance and IT spend all grew, in some cases sharply.
The US and EU regulators may be softening their stance on ‘risky’ banking activities. In the EU, there are signs that regulators’ concern about the reduction in liquidity in some markets may lead them to ditch plans for the separation of trading activities; and in the US, The Fed granted banks at least two years reprieve from the ‘Volcker Rule’.
In this analysis we look at institutional exposure to Continental European issuers and analyse trends based on style attributes, geographic exposure as well as identify top investment houses.
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We originally published this report in Jan-13 (see below). In this update, we note that GS now plans to list the unit on NYSE, as Goldman Sachs BDC Inc (ticker: GSBD). At the end of 2013, GSBDC had net asset value of $575m; GS owns just under 20% of the firm.
GS appears to have made the right and early call when it established GS Liberty Harbour: the sector boomed over the past two years, and other banks have taken note. In Feb-15, Credit Suisse launched its own specialty finance operation, Credit Suisse Park View BDC Inc.; reporting within CSAM, the unit is seeking to raise $500m by selling shares. Morgan Stanley is also considering a launch of its own unit, and we expect others will follow, too.
EXTRACT FROM THE ORIGINAL NOTE (attached):
GSAM Liberty Harbour’s new credit fund may commingle $600m from outside investors with $150m of GS’ own funds. The bank is adapting to the evolving risk regulations very effectively…
… reminding us in turn that the risk cannot be ‘macromanaged’ from outside.
We expect regulators will adjust Volcker and similar rules to reflect the active market realities.
Tricumen / FY15 Capital Markets: Regions_open 080316Tricumen Ltd
This publication is supplementary to our quarterly Results Review; it shows banks' capital markets quarterly revenue and semi-annual pre-tax profit and productivity dynamics relative to their peers in major regions. The full dataset includes operating revenue, expenses and pre-tax profit at the Level 3 product detail in 7 regions, as well as normalised client segment revenue allocations, RWA and Equity.
All data is reconciled against the published financial statements. Further detail is available on request.
Tricumen 6m16 Capital Markets Results Review_Regions_OPEN 010916Tricumen Ltd
This publication is supplementary to our quarterly Results Review; it shows banks' capital markets quarterly revenue and semi-annual pre-tax profit and productivity dynamics relative to their peers in major regions. The full dataset includes operating revenue, expenses and pre-tax profit at the Level 3 product detail in 7 regions, as well as normalised client segment revenue allocations, RWA and Equity.
All data is reconciled against the published financial statements. Further detail is available on request.
This issue features reorganised definitions for several FICC products.
This publication is supplementary to our quarterly Results Review: it ranks top capital markets revenue generators in each region and product area. All data is reconciled against the published financial statements. Further detail is available on request.
Tricumen 1Q17 Capital Markets: Regions_310517Tricumen Ltd
This publication is supplementary to our quarterly Results Review; it shows banks' capital markets quarterly revenue and semi-annual pre-tax profit and productivity dynamics relative to their peers in major regions. The full dataset includes operating revenue, expenses and pre-tax profit at the Level 3 product detail in 7 regions, as well as normalised client segment revenue allocations, RWA and Equity.
All data is reconciled against the published financial statements. Further detail is available on request.
Tricumen 9m16 Capital Markets Regions_OPEN 121216Tricumen Ltd
This publication is supplementary to our quarterly Results Review; it shows banks' capital markets quarterly revenue and semi-annual pre-tax profit and productivity dynamics relative to their peers in major regions. The full dataset includes operating revenue, expenses and pre-tax profit at the Level 3 product detail in 7 regions, as well as normalised client segment revenue allocations, RWA and Equity.
All data is reconciled against the published financial statements. Further detail is available on request.
Description: Presentation given by CEO Jeff Weiner, and CFO Steve Sordello, at LinkedIn Q2 2015 Earnings Call. For more information, check out http://investors.linkedin.com/.
Tricumen / Barclays Investment Bank_extending the cuts_151215Tricumen Ltd
Barclays Investment Bank: extending the cuts
Barclays remains focused on underlying profitability. Historically, however, the bank's main challenge was revenue generation, rather than cost control.
Our analysis highlights APAC equities, global credit, EMEA securitisation and US commodities as key areas of weak profitability.
Tricumen / 1Q16 Capital Markets Results Review_openTricumen Ltd
The combined 1Q16 operating revenue of banks in this report dropped 25% y/y, from US$54bn to US$41bn. Front office productivity also declined across the board, despite continuing/extended headcount cuts: 1,600 across BAML, BNPP, Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs and Societe Generale, primarily in FICC, but also in equity derivatives (Credit Suisse) and DCM (Deutsche Bank). By contrast, equity and electronic trading teams are hiring at BNPP, Citi, Deutsche Bank, J.P.Morgan and Societe Generale.
The pre-tax profit slumped 30% versus 1Q15. In equities and advisory/underwriting, banks cut costs in-step with a drop in revenue; FICC aggregate profit, however, fell by 42% y/y.
The EU's cap on bonuses has hobbled banks' ability to match costs with the shifts in revenue streams. Banks have reduced deferred comp in recent years, but the fixed component of cost at European arms of banks in this report jumped from c.60% in FY12 to 72% in FY15. Coupled with weak markets, this all but guarantees the continued weakness in profitability - or, indeed, a loss. Now, US regulators appear set to effect similar measures, extending the proposals from 2011.
Presentation given by CEO Jeff Weiner, and CFO Steve Sordello, at LinkedIn Q3 2015 Earnings Call. For more information, check out http://investors.linkedin.com/.
Capital Markets: Overview
The banks in this note reported US$169bn of operating revenue in FY17, 3% below FY16, and US$35bn in 4Q17, -10% y/y. Primary revenue grew, but Equities slipped and - crucially - FY17 FICC dropped 10% y/y. A fall in per-head FICC productivity led to renewed 'rightsizing' initiatives.
Banks (again) matched their costs to revenue: the average cost/income for banks in this report declined, from 82% in FY16 to 79% in FY17, driven by improvement in FICC and Banking.
Opinions on the impact of MiFID 2 vary widely; we expect it will be significant. For example, when TRACE reporting was introduced in the US, the added transparency on volumes traded (and hence flows) let to a c.30% reduction in bid-offer (or equivalent) margins. A similar phenomenon may be seen in MiFID 2, as it applies to most of the high-volume fixed income instruments. The exact margin reduction is likely to be smaller, as increased use of electronic markets means that the European markets are already more transparent than the US markets were at the time TRACE reports were introduced; still, we would not be surprised to see margin compression of 10-15% with a commensurate impact on revenues.
Tricumen / Credit Suisse: Restructuring EMEA and Americas_290316Tricumen Ltd
Credit Suisse's Mar-16 Strategy Update failed to immediately reassure investors. The bank expects a 40-45% year-on-year drop in Global Markets' trading revenue, and a loss in 1Q16
In our view, Credit Suisse has the 'wrong kind of fixed income' for their strategy and current markets
Standard Chartered_credit risk management 140116Tricumen Ltd
Standard Chartered – credit risk management
The collapse of Standard Chartered’s ROE over the past three years was largely caused by rising impairment costs. In our view, the growth in impairments suggests that there are issues with the bank's risk management, rather than with the underlying business proposition.
The bank's current approach appears fragmented and lacks some of the dynamic techniques used to create a 'fortress balance sheet' of top-tier global universal banks.
The new senior management team appears well placed to effect such changes. The bank is undergoing a major strategic review, the focus of which is its local corporate and commercial banking franchise in key markets.
Tricumen / M&A boutiques vs globals_101215Tricumen Ltd
M&A boutiques vs globals
Boutique firms weathered the post-Crisis much better than US or European globals, but are saddled with high cost/income ratios.
Based on current market trends, we expect US globals to continue gaining market share from European banks and boutiques.
Tricumen / Future Models in Wholesale Banking 100915Tricumen Ltd
In an environment of shrinking margins, capital and liquidity constraints, and efficiency challenges, banks are rethinking their wholesale banking operating model.
We see four distinct models emerging, centred around: (1) global universal banking, (2) global investment banking & wealth management, (3) a blend of electronic and high margin business, and (4) regional universal banking.
Whichever strategy is adopted, efficient client coverage, tech & ops excellence and clarity of strategy will be key for success.
Capital Markets: Revenue & Profitability rankings FY14
This publication combines our operating revenue, operating expenses and normalised Trading VaR and RWA analysis; and displays product-level rankings for players in each product area. All data is reconciled against the published financial statements. Further detail is available on request.
Tricumen / Future Strategies for Inter Dealer Brokers_230215Tricumen Ltd
Future Strategies For Inter-Dealer Brokers
The current market is dominated by five inter-dealer brokers (IDBs). While the voice-broked interbank marked dominates the revenue pool, it is also the least profitable.
IDBs face changing markets, margin compression and challenges from market trading. We suggest three strategies: (1) build the first fully electronic rates platform; (2) build product-specific networks with balanced flow and illiquid products; and (3) focus on higher-margin businesses.
Credit Suisse is scaling down its Prime Services unit. The revenue impact may be minimal: the bank has a strong synthetic financing capability, which could be folded into equity derivatives.
We disagree with the mainstream media’s unflattering coverage. CS’ cautious approach to restructuring is justified by the uncertain regulatory outlook, and the bank is, in fact, very close to achieving its key financial targets.
Techniques to optimize the pagerank algorithm usually fall in two categories. One is to try reducing the work per iteration, and the other is to try reducing the number of iterations. These goals are often at odds with one another. Skipping computation on vertices which have already converged has the potential to save iteration time. Skipping in-identical vertices, with the same in-links, helps reduce duplicate computations and thus could help reduce iteration time. Road networks often have chains which can be short-circuited before pagerank computation to improve performance. Final ranks of chain nodes can be easily calculated. This could reduce both the iteration time, and the number of iterations. If a graph has no dangling nodes, pagerank of each strongly connected component can be computed in topological order. This could help reduce the iteration time, no. of iterations, and also enable multi-iteration concurrency in pagerank computation. The combination of all of the above methods is the STICD algorithm. [sticd] For dynamic graphs, unchanged components whose ranks are unaffected can be skipped altogether.
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Empowering the Data Analytics Ecosystem: A Laser Focus on Value
The data analytics ecosystem thrives when every component functions at its peak, unlocking the true potential of data. Here's a laser focus on key areas for an empowered ecosystem:
1. Democratize Access, Not Data:
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5. Cultivate a Data-Driven Mindset:
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Data Storytelling Workshops: Equip stakeholders with the skills to translate complex data findings into compelling narratives that drive action.
Benefits of a Precise Ecosystem:
Sharpened Focus: Precise access and clear roles ensure everyone works with the most relevant data, maximizing efficiency.
Actionable Insights: Strategic analytics and automated quality checks lead to more reliable and actionable data insights.
Continuous Improvement: Data-driven performance management fosters a culture of learning and continuous improvement.
Sustainable Growth: Empowered by data, organizations can make informed decisions to drive sustainable growth and innovation.
By focusing on these precise actions, organizations can create an empowered data analytics ecosystem that delivers real value by driving data-driven decisions and maximizing the return on their data investment.
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