thesis illustrates transportation patterns in the wake of economic restructuring (shift to services) and decentralization of metropolitan areas

1. Transportation Crossroads: Influence of Urban Area Form and Demographic Composition on Mass Transit Parfait Gasana University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Southern Sociological Society Meeting April 1-4, 2009 New Orleans, LA Images of Jefferson City, MO bus (http://www.jeffcitymo.org); Houston rail system (http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/); New York subway (http://www.inhabitat.com)

5. Demographic Variables (Source: U.S. Census) Age Young Age (0-25) 0.37 Working Age (26-64) 0.51 Old Age (65 – up) 0.13 Household Size One 0.27 Two or Three 0.49 Four or more 0.24 Commute Times Low (0-14 min.) 0.39 Middle (15-29 min.) 0.13 High (30-44min) 0.08 Really High (45-90 min.) 0.02 Race White 0.73 Non-white 0.27 Education No H.S. Educ 0.18 H.S. Educ. 0.28 Some College 0.29 BA Educ. 0.16 Prof. Educ. 0.09 Region Northeast 0.14 South 0.23 West 0.25 Midwest 0.39 Poverty Pct. 0.13 Occupation White-Collared 0.33 Service Sales 0.43 Blue-Collared 0.23 Car Ownership 0.63 Urban Area Characteristics Urban Area Characteristics Population Central Place Density City Age UA Population / State Road Sources U.S. Census U.S. Census MSN Encarta FHWA, USDOT Dollar Figures Log of Home Value Log of Govt. Fund Log of Gas Prices U.S. Census National Transit Database EIA, Dept. of Energy

6. Descriptive Statistics

7. Population Trends

8. Density Trends

9. OLS Regression Per Capita Transit Trips 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 | Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. No. | 336 350 355 365 367 370 Adj. R-sq | 0.469 0.470 0.479 0.495 0.405 0.464 ------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Old Age | 92.72 93.95 86.08 112.7* -1.106 141.0** Prof Educ Lvl | 170.5* 146.8* 164.0** 164.9** 279.9*** 157.1** Household 1 | 158.4* 158.5* 156.5* 148.9* -166.3 176.0** Household 4+ | 121.6 126.4* 124.3* 119.9* -88.50 148.0** Blue-Collar Occup. | 123.0* 88.64 117.4* 112.6* 139.0 111.6* Low Commute | -28.89 -29.32 -29.86 -32.49* 64.35** -30.75* Northeast | -10.61* -8.915* -9.016* -8.761* -2.108 -6.813* UA Population | 0.910 1.290 1.820* 2.317** -0.129 -0.472 Cntrl Pl. Dens. | 4.835*** 4.000*** 3.653*** 3.074*** 1.823 1.791* Log Govt. Fund | -0.809 -0.483 -0.608 -0.845 6.469*** 1.140 Log Gas Prices | 77.15 47.43 58.81* 92.00* 61.76 136.8*** UA Pop. /State Rd. | 0.119*** 0.122*** 0.130*** 0.139*** 0.127*** 0.0423*** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Omitted category: working age (25-65), h.s. education level, households of 2 and 3, white-collared occup., medium commute (15-44min.), midwest * - significant at 0.05 level ** - significant at 0.01 level

10. Median Regression Per Capita Transit Trips 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 | Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. Coef. No. | 336 350 355 365 367 370 Pseudo R-sq. | 0.2797 0.2785 0.2875 0.2779 0.2769 0.2779 ------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Old Age | 35.85 33.57*** 32.58 65.13* 60.55 90.33*** Pct. Poverty | 32.61 22.75*** 38.40** 31.81 21.03 8.080 Car Ownership | -14.95 -25.96*** -24.38*** -31.77* -16.58 -27.91* Prof Educ Lvl | 86.04** 125.1*** 113.9*** 110.9*** 160.0** 75.39** Household 1 | 48.43 19.25 53.74** 53.79 21.26 56.35* Blue-Collared | 18.66 23.06** 32.66* 10.06 34.43 -0.704 Low Commute | -13.12 -14.83*** -14.47*** -17.96* 7.609 -20.79** Northeast | -5.234* -4.256*** -5.056*** -5.258** -6.717* -2.458 West | -0.961 -0.987*** -1.029** -1.719* -1.711 -0.239 Population | 2.911*** 3.344*** 3.426*** 3.818*** 1.735* 4.501*** Cntrl Pl. Dens | 1.882*** 1.760*** 1.823*** 1.435*** 1.799* 1.111*** Log Home Value | -3.570 -5.530*** -5.296** -2.889 2.748 -2.685 Log Govt. Fund | 0.686 0.732*** 0.620** 0.352 2.355*** 0.670* Log Gas Price | 57.13** 31.88*** 43.10*** 61.83** 63.39 65.09*** UA Pop / State Rd. | 0.153*** 0.152*** 0.160*** 0.167*** 0.139*** 0.0429*** -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Omitted category: working age (25-65), h.s. education level, households of 2 and 3, white-collared occup., medium commute (15-44min.), midwest * - significant at 0.05 level ** - significant at 0.01 level

11. Significant Levels * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001

12. Panel Regression Mass Transit Ridership, 2000-2007 | Random Effects | Per Capita Trips Per Capita Miles No. | 2606 2606 -------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Old Age | 96.47* 196.5 Car Ownership | -55.96** -150.6 Prof Educ Level | 184.8*** 273.1 Household 1 | 39.57 1051.6** Household 4+ | 69.70 886.7** Northeast | -7.357* -11.30 UA Population | 2.071** 8.435 Cntrl Pl. Dens | 2.557*** 6.268 Log Govt. Fund | 1.671*** 7.011*** Log Gas Prices | 3.843*** 31.40*** City Age | -0.00113 -0.249* Urban Pop/ State Rd. | 0.0267*** 0.156** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Omitted category: working age (25-65), h.s. education level, households of 2 and 3, white-collared occup., medium commute (15-44min.), midwest * - significant at 0.05 level ** - significant at 0.01 level