'Trade Positioning for 2016' - 15.12.15 - Round the clock trader addended

www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
In 2014 we mused that
1. EURCHF Floor to Fail January for a 30% scoop
2. Oil would collapse
3. Sell China Buy Russia [JRS – JPMorgan Russia Fund vs Hang Seng]
4. FX Emerging Rout vs Dollar [MXN, ZAR, TRY, RUB, BRL]
5. Equity Trades:
I. Long Carnival [CCL 26.35 – 34.43]
II. Short Lonmin
III. Others Shorts - Glencore/Huntsman/TSCO/Many others

Look back at Lonmin

A quick look back - Lonmin

A look back - Oil!

More recently on Brent Oil $36.8

State of Play going into 2016
1. Global Interest Rates - We have trained an ‘Enterprise Environment’ & ‘Share market of
Equities’ that can only function on a ‘negligible cost’ of debt = Mega Rate Sensitivity for existing
business to interest rate environment
2. FANG - We have Created an Oligopoly, an elite class of ‘Techno Platformed Globo Mega
Corporates’, who dominate multiple geography markets if not globally so. They establish
themselves as a new technology leader or as initially as cost leader with a smarter ‘Tech
Interface’ - No More ANTI TRUST Defence anymore it seems

State of Play going into 2016
3. Huge Dollar based debt - in emerging markets, whilst commodity prices sink [Their primary
revenue, has been in an extended bear market, and is obliterated] In Maths Speak :
EM FX Deval + $Debt + $Int Rate Rise + Strong$ + Commodity Collapse = EM Crisis
4. Yuan - China’s Yuan has just been added to the IMF’s Currency Bundle SDR

The Trends for 2016 - Equity Bear
Trend 1 – An ‘ongoing’ Bear market for most medium sized listed corporates, with non-dominant
positions in their industry, and just single or few geographic client markets.
I am hunting on US MidCap Stocks, and getting rich pickings.

Short AU Optronics[AUO] - ,
Sunoco [SXL],
Shire (US)[SHPG:XNAS]

New one for you? – Winstream Texas Fibre & Cloud co.
– WIN:XNAS

Trigger Timeframe
– WIN:XNAS

The Trends for 2016 – 2. FANG
Trend 2 – Utter Dominance of an elite class of ‘Techno platformed Globo Mega Corporates’, who
dominate multiple geography markets, initial as cost leader and smarter ‘Tech Interface’

FANG - the Only ‘Long’ Game in town.. Beware Reset Day
FANG – Facebook, Apple, Amazon, NetFlix, Gilead Sciences, Google.
The Techno Platformed Global Corpotocracy is the safest long category, in the ‘limp on’
economic malaise, they have:
1. Scale
2. Cash, very useful post any reset
3. User friendly Tech interfaces – Uber/Amazon Portal
4. Patents
5. Global reach
6. Able to attract best employee’s
7. Legal globalised tax arbitrage, that slaughters national rivals in reinvestment capital
8. Old style Industry rivals, whose market share is ripe for pinching
9. Warning…Will fall just as hard if all else does.. Can’t succeed in a void

ARM Strong - Chips over Pharma

ARM – Bull Flag IL2

ARM – Volume Precedes resumption

FANGS

Amazon

GOOG

Facebook

FANG - the Only ‘Long’ Game in town.. Beware Reset Day
Facebook, Apple, Amazon, NetFlix, Gilead Sciences, Google TOO Expensive for you.
NEW possible FANG’s worth considering – ‘Uber’, Goldman Sachs, Google as investors, also
consider AirBnB

The Trends 2016 – 3. Battering EM’s
Trend 3 – Numerous Emerging Market Dollar Debt Defaults or ‘Nearfaults’ – Followed up with hard line
negotiations from the IMF, whose Mainstream media profile escalates to at least that of the Central
Banks.
Plus also see’s their SDR drawing rights & Bailout program, becoming more established, as the
‘help & hero’ vehicle of choice for beleaguered emerging nations.
Within this, many emerging nations in this position of a default/nearfault, face vicious fiscal
austerity at a national level, and lose control over their State Assets, Airports, Ports, National
Airlines, State Health Services/Prison Services/Infrastructure Maintenance are privatised,
outsourced with many contracts awarded to a select global outsourcing companies often US
based, with strong Military/Oil/Washington Lobby money.

Emerging Batterings
Conclusion Trend 3:
1. Prepare to short emerging market indices & select equities further
2. Short Emerging FX further till a major political event – Example Jacob Zuma President RSA to
be sacked. My picks are MXN, TRY, BRL, ZAR [but just melted up so wait]. New Ruble ramp
through 100 called at 66 a fresh 50% melt Up.. Likley associated Geopolitical events to go with
this
3. Fear, unstability & ‘flight to core’ on weak emergings could see particular JPY strength, then
USD too

New Ruble shock through 100

Last time we called Ruble was pre UKR hostilities

In our trading strategy, we never chase & sometimes the
train comes back for you – 5 Stages of a breakout Theory

Holy Grail HVF Trade with Primer, 2nd Chance & Over
Performance

I mean real ‘Over Performance’!
Learn how we used Overperformance bands & when

Yen maybe strongest – ZAR weakest

From 10 Yen end 2014 to 4.456 by end 2017 – 56% loss

The Trends for 2016
Trend Outlier Event 4 – China, now in the SDR which it sort, slowly becomes more vocal about
Dollar Hedgemony, & Global Imbalances. Despite inclusion in the IMF Currency bundle, it continues
to pursue a ‘second way’ through the BRICS arrangements initiated awhile back.
US & China relations actually deteriorate further, with a clear Cybernet Hackers war in both
directions underway in silent mode, with occasional high profile accusations breaking out.
China’s slowing economy is sputtering and either numerous Devaluations take place during 2016, or
one large devaluation takes place measuring 5% or more.
Equities remain undermined.

Last Week in Copper 232-224

This week in Copper 209 – 203?

Tough for Glencore

Glencore TGT thru 85p

The Trends for 2016
Conclusion –
1. Sustained pressure, possible disaccumulation of commodities, run down of stockpiles – refer the
ghost cities of new build property
2. Yuan Devaluations, if USD is deemed too strong for export
3. Deleveraging, Equity market down spikes

Personal Finances - Play Great Defence for 2016/7
1. There is a highly dubious Central Banking Cartel running the Global Financial System
2. They have configured a money printing, interest rate suppression environment, leading
for now to ZIRP/NIRP
3. This a barely functional economic depression, pumped up with cheap money and
becoming more and more immune to the few stimulants on offer
4. A ‘megalothon’ of a reset awaits

Personal Finances- Play Great Defence for
2016/7
Best Defence:
1. Be Highly Liquid,
2. High Cash levels,
3. Including Physical Cash at close reach.
4. Stay within deposit guarantee maximums on UK Banks
5. If required contemplate, multiple bank accounts in different geographic jurisdictions –
recommend Singapore, Switzerland, Uruguay – Australia/New Zealand
6. Be Debt free, If not..

Great Defence for 2016/7
7. If not Debt free, be ‘Variable rate’ debt free, or light as possible and continue to reduce as
a prelude to cash hoarding, run concurrently, rather than just 100% retiring debt.
8. Gold & Silver = The Anti-Central Bankers Currency.
9. Precious Metals is a, ‘declining faith’ in system, asset
10.Show a higher propensity to short Individual equities:
a) Where Bear Trend is already established
b) Especially, midcap & medium sized companies
c) In unfavoured Industries
d) With suitable liquidity meaning Market Cap £350 Million/$500 Million Minimum,
preferably larger
11.In Equities Maintain a 1 long, to 2 or 3 Shorts trade ratio [1:3 - Long:Short Trade ratio]

Central Bankers, don’t work for you!
‘But the SNB is 45 per cent owned by private shareholders, many of whom are individuals, who receive dividends
from the SNB. The rest is owned by the cantons, which have been complaining recently about insufficient cash
transfers from the SNB.’
The FT after the event, having not predicted it:
The SNB’s repeated pledges to intervene in unlimited quantities to enforce the euro peg were always subject to
political risk and, in retrospect, likely to prove hollow
The FT Article post event here:
FT Article post SNB walking away from 1.20 EURCHF Floor
http://blogs.ft.com/gavyndavies/2015/01/18/the-swiss-currency-bombshell-cause-and-effect/

Learn one thing from our bring forward date on the EURCHF Floor collapse.
Central Bankers:
1. Don’t consider that they work for you, they seek to contain you
2. They will tell you what you need to hear, so that ‘You keep calm and carry on’ whilst they
serve the agenda of their primary backers
3. This may include being intentionally or knowingly evasive, with responses and full of ‘lawyer
speak’
4. Treat them with suspicion

You can not just ‘Survive but Thrive’ if you:
1. Take control of your personal finances & trading
2. You prepare intelligently
3. You invest wisely in your trading education
i. Learn, Share & Develop – few of us are complete, solely sustained traders
ii. Attain an edge
iii. Specialise
iv. Be mentored
v. Be part of an online community of like-minded
vi. When are you ready for that deep shift, in your trading?
vii. Bend the Xmas credit card or begin your defence of family now going into 2016

Exploit the following 2016/7
I specialise in supporting retails traders in achieving a deep shift in their trading, some of what you will
learn:
i. Trend - To understand Timeframes, Including The Macro to Micro & always be trading with the
flow
ii. Specialist – Become good in doing one single thing, very well
iii. Sniper - To be selective, high value trades [RRR]
iv. Longevity – A ‘Set & Forget Strategy’, allows you to work, be outdoors & be available to others
v. The Gift of the Pinch – Trade volatility set ups that allow for the unique moment where tights
stops can exist, extranormal RRR are possible & the correct trades move briskly away from your
stop

Learn to Exploit the following 2016/7
vi. Emotional Comfort – Bad trades closed early, winners are held for an extended time, Targets see
to regular ‘banks’ at key stall points
vii. 360 degree development - Watch all forms of your technical trading improve, including
psychological & emotional elements
viii.TEAM – be part of a tribe of equals, all seeking to do the same thing
ix. Multiply don’t Add = ‘How to Pig out’ – Learn to have Quantum leap gains within the confines of
Money management
x. Tools - Provide you with a Hunt Volatility Funnel Draw Tool
xi. Advanced Techniques – Patterns within Patterns – Primers, Wind ups & Boosters
xii. Abundance of set ups - Show you ways you can find multiple set ups quickly360 degree
development
xiii.Enjoy – Learn to love the process, community and winning with others

Secure your Primer slots open from 26th
December for our New, Revised Trading
Metamorphosis Program for 2016!
Get Access to our VPN Mentoring & Membership area upon reservation.
Start our 24 hours of modular Primer material in advance of Theory weekend 23rd
January 2016
26th December 2015
Details for The Trading Metamorphosis Program
https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/hvf-trading-metamorphosis-
program-6-month-program-tickets-19441166051

Contact or follow:
Twitter - @TheMarketSniper
YouTube/LinkedIn – Francis Hunt
Skype – ‘FrancoFXTrader’
Email – fdhunt@gmail.com
[usually Trader@TheMarketSniper.com but temporary issue]
26th December 2015
Details for The Trading Metamorphosis Program
https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/hvf-trading-metamorphosis-
program-6-month-program-tickets-19441166051
A free resource, become part of the 9%
http://tradersecretmasterkeys.co.uk/webinar/webinar-register.php?

'Trade Positioning for 2016' - 15.12.15 - Round the clock trader addended

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'Trade Positioning for 2016' - 15.12.15 - Round the clock trader addended