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Deborah Elms
G1 Conference Tokyo
  November 3, 2011




                      1
   Nine countries, three continents, diverse levels
    of economic development
    ◦ Australia, Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru,
      Singapore, United States, Vietnam
   “High quality, 21st century” agreement
   Accession clause
    ◦ Open to new members, especially from APEC
   Nine formal negotiating rounds held, starting
    in March 2010
   “Broad outlines” due by November 2011 APEC


                                                               2
   Substantial scope
    ◦ Including “behind the border” measures
   Depth
    ◦ Limited sensitivities
   Shared set of norms and commitments
   Beyond bilateral arrangements
    ◦ Address noodle bowl problems of overlapping PTAs
   Attractive to developed and developing
    country members
   Note: 21st century, high quality has not been
    defined by government negotiators

                                                         3
4
   For market access in goods
    ◦ No exclusions, including sensitive products in
      agriculture
    ◦ No special provisions for textiles
    ◦ Phase out of quantitative restrictions?
   Liberal Rules of Origin criteria
   In services
    ◦ Liberalize on basis of negative list
    ◦ Modest sensitivities allowed
    ◦ Even-move away from WTO modalities on services?



                                                        5
Market Access           Industrial Goods          Agriculture

       Textiles           Technical Barriers to     Rules of Origin
                                 Trade
Sanitary, Phytosanitary   Customs Cooperation         Investment
       Measures
       Services            Financial Services     Telecommunications

    E-Commerce             Business Mobility         Government
                                                     Procurement
     Competition          Intellectual Property         Labor

     Environment           Capacity Building        Trade Remedies



                                                                       6
   TPP members committed to including “new”
    issues—21st century topics
   Five topics lumped (for now) into horizontal
    basket
    ◦ Supply chain management
    ◦ Small and medium enterprise (SME) support
    ◦ Regulatory coherence
      May be addressed in individual chapters instead
    ◦ Competitiveness
    ◦ Development



                                                         7
8
   APEC Leaders’ Meeting in Honolulu
    ◦ “Broad Outlines” Due
    ◦ Hard to say how close to completion
   Japanese announcement could seriously
    upset apple cart
   Now that KORUS be approved on US side,
    what next? What will Korea do vis-à-vis TPP?
   Other potential members?
    ◦ Procedure: bilateral meetings, full group
      consensus, interim membership for 3 rounds only


                                                        9
   TPP Research Network
    ◦ 21 members
   First book published in August 2012,
    Cambridge University Press
   Run from Temasek Centre for Trade &
    Negotiations (TFCTN)
   For further information, contact me at
    isdelms@ntu.edu.sg




                                             10

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Tpp for tokyo nov 2011

  • 1. Deborah Elms G1 Conference Tokyo November 3, 2011 1
  • 2. Nine countries, three continents, diverse levels of economic development ◦ Australia, Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, United States, Vietnam  “High quality, 21st century” agreement  Accession clause ◦ Open to new members, especially from APEC  Nine formal negotiating rounds held, starting in March 2010  “Broad outlines” due by November 2011 APEC 2
  • 3. Substantial scope ◦ Including “behind the border” measures  Depth ◦ Limited sensitivities  Shared set of norms and commitments  Beyond bilateral arrangements ◦ Address noodle bowl problems of overlapping PTAs  Attractive to developed and developing country members  Note: 21st century, high quality has not been defined by government negotiators 3
  • 4. 4
  • 5. For market access in goods ◦ No exclusions, including sensitive products in agriculture ◦ No special provisions for textiles ◦ Phase out of quantitative restrictions?  Liberal Rules of Origin criteria  In services ◦ Liberalize on basis of negative list ◦ Modest sensitivities allowed ◦ Even-move away from WTO modalities on services? 5
  • 6. Market Access Industrial Goods Agriculture Textiles Technical Barriers to Rules of Origin Trade Sanitary, Phytosanitary Customs Cooperation Investment Measures Services Financial Services Telecommunications E-Commerce Business Mobility Government Procurement Competition Intellectual Property Labor Environment Capacity Building Trade Remedies 6
  • 7. TPP members committed to including “new” issues—21st century topics  Five topics lumped (for now) into horizontal basket ◦ Supply chain management ◦ Small and medium enterprise (SME) support ◦ Regulatory coherence  May be addressed in individual chapters instead ◦ Competitiveness ◦ Development 7
  • 8. 8
  • 9. APEC Leaders’ Meeting in Honolulu ◦ “Broad Outlines” Due ◦ Hard to say how close to completion  Japanese announcement could seriously upset apple cart  Now that KORUS be approved on US side, what next? What will Korea do vis-à-vis TPP?  Other potential members? ◦ Procedure: bilateral meetings, full group consensus, interim membership for 3 rounds only 9
  • 10. TPP Research Network ◦ 21 members  First book published in August 2012, Cambridge University Press  Run from Temasek Centre for Trade & Negotiations (TFCTN)  For further information, contact me at isdelms@ntu.edu.sg 10