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EU-CARIFORUM
Economic Partnership
  Agreement (EPA)

 EPA as a Development Tool
          Carl B. Greenidge
          Deputy Senior Director
OUTLINE

1.    EPA and not EPA
2.    The Development Issue in the Context of ACP EU
      Relations
3.    Caribbean Pre-occupations
4.    Trade Instruments in Support of Development
5.    The Caribbean ‘Situation’, 2008
6.    What is so special about EPAs?
7.    EPAs and Development
8.    EPA a la Cariforum
9.    The Search for Development in EPAs
10.   Conclusions
                                                       2
11.   Some useful references




           EPA and Not EPA

• An EPA is only a FTA it is neither a
  panacea nor a regional development plan
• In the discussions in the early days even
  the Commission spoke of ‘flanking
  measures’ meaning additional instruments
• Widespread acknowledgement of need for
  supporting measures and a more efficient
  EDF procedures and management
• In that sense the Cariforum EPA seeks to
                                            3
  be a ‘FTA plus’
The Development Issue in
      ACP-EU Relations
Lomé:
   ‘man at the centre of development’ &
   was mainly pre-occupied with assistance on
     economic issues in context of ACP states
     identification of development priorities:
• Production
• Export earnings problems arising from price
  fluctuations and
• downward secular price trends for their main
  products – primary commodities                 4




                                                 5
The Development Issue in
   ACP-EU Relations (cont.1)
• Related investment problems encountered
• Also reflecting lack of structural diversification
  and
• inadequate command of technological
  change,low involvement in innovation and
  technological change – ‘white magic’ era
• The challenge of industrialisation
    – Infant industries
    – LDLIDCs Production
                                                                        6




      The Development Issue
             (cont 2)
Cotonou shared these concerns but reflected EU insistence on adding
  their development concerns, and re-oriented cooperation towards:
• Strengthening the role of the market in ACP states at all levels in
  enhancing efficiency and providing incentives
   – entire section devoted to this
• Cementing Europe’s role as a global player in international
  economic arena
• Acknowledging dysfunctional role of many ACP Governments and
  supporting the role of non-state actors
• Problem of humanitarian crises with and without war
• Putting ‘sustainability’ in development
• Enhancing Aid effectiveness


                                                                        7
Caribbean pre-occupations
         in development
•   Small size and international trade
     – Inhibits economies of scale in production runs inter alia, but its
        importance depends on the:
          • characteristics of sector
          • size of the product market
          • & can be attenuated by access to int. mkts
          • large markets improve prody
     – If the available data is controlled for location, level of development and
        incidence of petroleum, GDP growth in smaller states is better than that
        of larger ones
     – Reality is that smaller states are wealthier within and outside of the
        Caribbean
•   Vulnerability
     – for all the debate and fury over SIDs it is yet to find favour in a
        meaningful way in WTO
•   Diversification and new economic activities                                   8




    Caribbean pre-occupations
     in development (cont.)
     – If the available data is controlled for location, level of
       development and incidence of petroleum, GDP growth in smaller
       states is better than that of larger ones
     – Reality is that smaller states are wealthier within and outside of
       the Caribbean

• Vulnerability
     – for all the debate and fury over SIDs it is yet to find favour in a
       meaningful way in WTO
     – Reason?
• New economic activities
     – Significance of services in development process?
                                                                                 9
TRADE INSTRUMENTS IN
   SUPPORT OF DEVELOPMENT
Lomé                                 Cotonou
• Non-reciprocal trade               • Enhanced competitiveness
  agreement                            thru trade liberalisation
                                     • Gradual integration into
• Support for Regional                 international economic system
  Cooperation/Integration            • MDGs and Good Governance
• Compensatory Export                • Funds in support of regional
  Stabilisation Scheme –               integration/cooperation
  Stabex, Sysmin                     • Flex
• Project funding                    • Programme funding
                                     • LDLICs funding
• LDLICs funding
                                     • EIB, CTA, CDE
• EIB, CTA, CDE
                                                                    10




  The Caribbean Situation, 2008
Background against which policy is to be implemented:
• Decline in output and productivity in many states
• Regional integration scheme not yet completed
        • from FTA, to partial CU, to Common Market with Single
          Economic Space
        • Most rapid growth since 1998 is in inter-regional trade
• International trade environment characterized by:
        • declining preferential margins
        • low tolerance for preferential access
• Effects of CAP review
• Significance of services to region
• Political sensitivity of employment levels

                                                                    11
What is So Special About EPAs?

• Times have changed – cynicism and more
  critical observers
• Replacing a highly prized mechanism and
  seeking to ensure no state is worse off –
  EU Council promise
• Claims about trade development link
  questioned
• Issues in question:
   – Supply side constraints and how these are to
                                                  12
     be lifted




       EPAs and Development
The philosophy
• Trade long seen as ‘engine of growth’ in context of
  development of both US and recent East Asian Tigers.
  Cotonou formalizes it in EPA.
• Central to neo-classic model – on which Bretton Woods
  Consensus is based – is liberalised markets. The latter is
  the basis for the efficient allocation of resources and as a
  means of delivering competitiveness through increasing
  private ownership, expanding exports and promoting
  investments. In addition proposes:
   –   Modernisation
   –   Innovation
   –   Increased market access and
                                                            13
   –   Enhanced regional integration
EPAs and Development (cont.)

Main features:
  – Regional approach to trade cooperation
  – WTO-compatible and involving
     • Asymmetrical reciprocity in return for
     • Limited preferential access
  – Aid for trade




                                                14




         EPA a la Cariforum
• Favourable scope, timing and extent of
  market liberalisation
• Nature of links to funding
• Helpful treatment of services of special
  interest to the region and
• Defensive regulatory framework
• Prominence of innovation and S&TD
  support
                                                15
The Search for Development
         in EPAs
• Development dictates that RTAs should
  not:
   – Limit economic policy space and opportunities available to
     developing state signatories
   – Require too liberal investment rules in exchange for inadequate
     and primarily FDI
   – Unfavourable balance between developing state obligations and
     priorities
   – Fail to include a ‘development chapter’
   – Omit the inclusion of a monitoring mechanism
• Proposed benchmark study to look in addition at:
   – MDGs
   – Sustainable development goals
   – Economic and social equity, especially poverty reduction      16




                     Conclusions
• Trade is but one policy instrument
• Development is multi-dimensional
• The context in which the Caribbean’s EPA is to be
  implemented is one of frequent, and perhaps, rapid
  change not least of all in international markets. The
  challenge is therefore for the region to develop the
  capacity to adjust significantly and with dispatch as
  circumstances dictate
• Such adjustment will involve many areas, such as
  effective social networking, in order to maximise limited
  skills and quickly share and manage valuable,
  sometimes specialised information expeditiously.
                                                                   17
Conclusions (cont)
• Trade policies alone cannot ensure development
• Complementary policies will need to be consistently
  pursued
• In absence of perfect foresight this trade framework will
  also need to be modified and adjusted over time
• An ex ante review suggests that these concerns have
  been largely met
• The real test is an empirical one and would require time
  to determine. The gap between the two exercise will be a
  test of whether Governments can implement policies
  when circumstances dictate
                                                         18




    Some Useful References
• Alesina, A and Spolare, E (2003) The size of
  nations. Cantab, MIT Press. pp 81-83.
• Byron, J & Lewis, P (2007) Formulating
  sustainable development benchmarks for an
  EU-Cariforum EPA: Caribbean perspectives.
  Sept. ICTSD and the APRODEV.
  www.aprodev.net
• Easterly, W and Kraay, A (2000) Small states,
  small problems? Income, growth, and volatility in
  Small States. World Development. Vol. 28, #3.
  pp2013-2027                                     19
Useful References (cont.)
• IBRD (2005) A time to choose: Caribbean
  development in the 21st century.
  Washington, DC. April 12.
• Meyn, M Stephens, C (2007) ACP-EU
  Partnership Agreements. Final report. ODI
  for C.S. Nov.
• Van Reisen, M (2005) EU Global Player
• van Reisen, M (2001) Reform of EU
  Development Policy.
                                          20

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CARIFORUM-EC EPA Negotiations EPA as a Development Tool (Carl Greenidge)

  • 1. EU-CARIFORUM Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) EPA as a Development Tool Carl B. Greenidge Deputy Senior Director
  • 2. OUTLINE 1. EPA and not EPA 2. The Development Issue in the Context of ACP EU Relations 3. Caribbean Pre-occupations 4. Trade Instruments in Support of Development 5. The Caribbean ‘Situation’, 2008 6. What is so special about EPAs? 7. EPAs and Development 8. EPA a la Cariforum 9. The Search for Development in EPAs 10. Conclusions 2 11. Some useful references EPA and Not EPA • An EPA is only a FTA it is neither a panacea nor a regional development plan • In the discussions in the early days even the Commission spoke of ‘flanking measures’ meaning additional instruments • Widespread acknowledgement of need for supporting measures and a more efficient EDF procedures and management • In that sense the Cariforum EPA seeks to 3 be a ‘FTA plus’
  • 3. The Development Issue in ACP-EU Relations Lomé: ‘man at the centre of development’ & was mainly pre-occupied with assistance on economic issues in context of ACP states identification of development priorities: • Production • Export earnings problems arising from price fluctuations and • downward secular price trends for their main products – primary commodities 4 5
  • 4. The Development Issue in ACP-EU Relations (cont.1) • Related investment problems encountered • Also reflecting lack of structural diversification and • inadequate command of technological change,low involvement in innovation and technological change – ‘white magic’ era • The challenge of industrialisation – Infant industries – LDLIDCs Production 6 The Development Issue (cont 2) Cotonou shared these concerns but reflected EU insistence on adding their development concerns, and re-oriented cooperation towards: • Strengthening the role of the market in ACP states at all levels in enhancing efficiency and providing incentives – entire section devoted to this • Cementing Europe’s role as a global player in international economic arena • Acknowledging dysfunctional role of many ACP Governments and supporting the role of non-state actors • Problem of humanitarian crises with and without war • Putting ‘sustainability’ in development • Enhancing Aid effectiveness 7
  • 5. Caribbean pre-occupations in development • Small size and international trade – Inhibits economies of scale in production runs inter alia, but its importance depends on the: • characteristics of sector • size of the product market • & can be attenuated by access to int. mkts • large markets improve prody – If the available data is controlled for location, level of development and incidence of petroleum, GDP growth in smaller states is better than that of larger ones – Reality is that smaller states are wealthier within and outside of the Caribbean • Vulnerability – for all the debate and fury over SIDs it is yet to find favour in a meaningful way in WTO • Diversification and new economic activities 8 Caribbean pre-occupations in development (cont.) – If the available data is controlled for location, level of development and incidence of petroleum, GDP growth in smaller states is better than that of larger ones – Reality is that smaller states are wealthier within and outside of the Caribbean • Vulnerability – for all the debate and fury over SIDs it is yet to find favour in a meaningful way in WTO – Reason? • New economic activities – Significance of services in development process? 9
  • 6. TRADE INSTRUMENTS IN SUPPORT OF DEVELOPMENT Lomé Cotonou • Non-reciprocal trade • Enhanced competitiveness agreement thru trade liberalisation • Gradual integration into • Support for Regional international economic system Cooperation/Integration • MDGs and Good Governance • Compensatory Export • Funds in support of regional Stabilisation Scheme – integration/cooperation Stabex, Sysmin • Flex • Project funding • Programme funding • LDLICs funding • LDLICs funding • EIB, CTA, CDE • EIB, CTA, CDE 10 The Caribbean Situation, 2008 Background against which policy is to be implemented: • Decline in output and productivity in many states • Regional integration scheme not yet completed • from FTA, to partial CU, to Common Market with Single Economic Space • Most rapid growth since 1998 is in inter-regional trade • International trade environment characterized by: • declining preferential margins • low tolerance for preferential access • Effects of CAP review • Significance of services to region • Political sensitivity of employment levels 11
  • 7. What is So Special About EPAs? • Times have changed – cynicism and more critical observers • Replacing a highly prized mechanism and seeking to ensure no state is worse off – EU Council promise • Claims about trade development link questioned • Issues in question: – Supply side constraints and how these are to 12 be lifted EPAs and Development The philosophy • Trade long seen as ‘engine of growth’ in context of development of both US and recent East Asian Tigers. Cotonou formalizes it in EPA. • Central to neo-classic model – on which Bretton Woods Consensus is based – is liberalised markets. The latter is the basis for the efficient allocation of resources and as a means of delivering competitiveness through increasing private ownership, expanding exports and promoting investments. In addition proposes: – Modernisation – Innovation – Increased market access and 13 – Enhanced regional integration
  • 8. EPAs and Development (cont.) Main features: – Regional approach to trade cooperation – WTO-compatible and involving • Asymmetrical reciprocity in return for • Limited preferential access – Aid for trade 14 EPA a la Cariforum • Favourable scope, timing and extent of market liberalisation • Nature of links to funding • Helpful treatment of services of special interest to the region and • Defensive regulatory framework • Prominence of innovation and S&TD support 15
  • 9. The Search for Development in EPAs • Development dictates that RTAs should not: – Limit economic policy space and opportunities available to developing state signatories – Require too liberal investment rules in exchange for inadequate and primarily FDI – Unfavourable balance between developing state obligations and priorities – Fail to include a ‘development chapter’ – Omit the inclusion of a monitoring mechanism • Proposed benchmark study to look in addition at: – MDGs – Sustainable development goals – Economic and social equity, especially poverty reduction 16 Conclusions • Trade is but one policy instrument • Development is multi-dimensional • The context in which the Caribbean’s EPA is to be implemented is one of frequent, and perhaps, rapid change not least of all in international markets. The challenge is therefore for the region to develop the capacity to adjust significantly and with dispatch as circumstances dictate • Such adjustment will involve many areas, such as effective social networking, in order to maximise limited skills and quickly share and manage valuable, sometimes specialised information expeditiously. 17
  • 10. Conclusions (cont) • Trade policies alone cannot ensure development • Complementary policies will need to be consistently pursued • In absence of perfect foresight this trade framework will also need to be modified and adjusted over time • An ex ante review suggests that these concerns have been largely met • The real test is an empirical one and would require time to determine. The gap between the two exercise will be a test of whether Governments can implement policies when circumstances dictate 18 Some Useful References • Alesina, A and Spolare, E (2003) The size of nations. Cantab, MIT Press. pp 81-83. • Byron, J & Lewis, P (2007) Formulating sustainable development benchmarks for an EU-Cariforum EPA: Caribbean perspectives. Sept. ICTSD and the APRODEV. www.aprodev.net • Easterly, W and Kraay, A (2000) Small states, small problems? Income, growth, and volatility in Small States. World Development. Vol. 28, #3. pp2013-2027 19
  • 11. Useful References (cont.) • IBRD (2005) A time to choose: Caribbean development in the 21st century. Washington, DC. April 12. • Meyn, M Stephens, C (2007) ACP-EU Partnership Agreements. Final report. ODI for C.S. Nov. • Van Reisen, M (2005) EU Global Player • van Reisen, M (2001) Reform of EU Development Policy. 20