The document provides an overview of the current economic landscape and recovery following the recent recession. It summarizes key economic indicators such as GDP, industrial production, unemployment, housing and financial markets. It outlines the government's economic response through fiscal stimulus and monetary policy. It also discusses future opportunities for economic growth and concludes that while recovery is underway, the US economy still faces pressures from high unemployment, consumer and government debt that will likely result in slower long-term growth compared to emerging economies such as China.
SPG Trend Advisors and its affiliate, Sage Policy Group, have made presentations on local and regional economies, the national economy, international and geopolitical issues and capital market events. We offer these presentations for our readers to gain additional information from our commentaries and further explanation of our analyses and forecasts.
Today’s Economic Landscape and What’s on the Other SideSavannah Whaley
SPG Trend Advisors is a boutique consultancy that provides global economic research for business and other decision makers. With fifty years combined experience between the principals, and through its website, SPG Trend Advisors provides insightful analysis and forecasting to prepare senior executives for tomorrows trends.
SPG Trend Advisors and its affiliate, Sage Policy Group, have made presentations on local and regional economies, the national economy, international and geopolitical issues and capital market events. We offer these presentations for our readers to gain additional information from our commentaries and further explanation of our analyses and forecasts.
You’ll see from the reports in this edition of Market Monitor that, while there are tentative signs of
economic stabilisation, these are tempered by indicators that still advise caution for future trade.
Germany has recorded positive growth since the summer, but we still expect bank lending to
continue to decline. Spain, in contrast, records negative growth forecasts for the short- and mid-term,
but at least our indicators show that the high tide of payment defaults and insolvencies may finally
have peaked. In the UK, however, a turnaround in the rising insolvency trend is still not in sight, and
the troubled construction sector is forecast to continue to suffer into 2010. That said, the car
scrappage scheme, which started later than in many other countries, will provide some cushion for
the automotive sector in the coming six months.
Against this background, we continue to urge caution, not just when embarking on new trading
ventures, but also in trade with established customers. Essentially, businesses need to tread more
carefully in ALL their sales transactions – monitoring changes in the payment behaviour of current
customers and taking extra care in assessing the financial strength of new prospects.
In this issue…
…we feature the following markets:
United Kingdom – with a spotlight on the construction and automotive sectors
Mexico – with a spotlight on the retail and chemicals sectors
Germany
Spain
Denmark
Portugal
Czech Republic
SPG Trend Advisors and its affiliate, Sage Policy Group, have made presentations on local and regional economies, the national economy, international and geopolitical issues and capital market events. We offer these presentations for our readers to gain additional information from our commentaries and further explanation of our analyses and forecasts.
Today’s Economic Landscape and What’s on the Other SideSavannah Whaley
SPG Trend Advisors is a boutique consultancy that provides global economic research for business and other decision makers. With fifty years combined experience between the principals, and through its website, SPG Trend Advisors provides insightful analysis and forecasting to prepare senior executives for tomorrows trends.
SPG Trend Advisors and its affiliate, Sage Policy Group, have made presentations on local and regional economies, the national economy, international and geopolitical issues and capital market events. We offer these presentations for our readers to gain additional information from our commentaries and further explanation of our analyses and forecasts.
You’ll see from the reports in this edition of Market Monitor that, while there are tentative signs of
economic stabilisation, these are tempered by indicators that still advise caution for future trade.
Germany has recorded positive growth since the summer, but we still expect bank lending to
continue to decline. Spain, in contrast, records negative growth forecasts for the short- and mid-term,
but at least our indicators show that the high tide of payment defaults and insolvencies may finally
have peaked. In the UK, however, a turnaround in the rising insolvency trend is still not in sight, and
the troubled construction sector is forecast to continue to suffer into 2010. That said, the car
scrappage scheme, which started later than in many other countries, will provide some cushion for
the automotive sector in the coming six months.
Against this background, we continue to urge caution, not just when embarking on new trading
ventures, but also in trade with established customers. Essentially, businesses need to tread more
carefully in ALL their sales transactions – monitoring changes in the payment behaviour of current
customers and taking extra care in assessing the financial strength of new prospects.
In this issue…
…we feature the following markets:
United Kingdom – with a spotlight on the construction and automotive sectors
Mexico – with a spotlight on the retail and chemicals sectors
Germany
Spain
Denmark
Portugal
Czech Republic
Economy and equity markets: are they disconnected?Markets Beyond
Equity markets are not disconnected from the real economy and there no reason, under the current circumstances, to fear a market collapse. The S&P 500 is however no longer cheap.
The Columbus MSA added 12,300 jobs in 2013 and continues to rank very well against comparable U.S. metros, according to Columbus 2020, the economic development organization in the Columbus Region. The final quarterly economic update for the 2013 calendar year covers regional economic data and development activities in the fourth quarter and throughout the year.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Global Recession And Its Impact On The Asian Economyguest5e256f8
Dr. Bernardo M. Villegas is a renowned economist. A PhD in Economics from Harvard, he is referred to as "Professor of Boom"!!
The presentation predicts the influence of ASEAN power!
STATEN DIE ECONOMIE ZOUDEN LATEN VALLEN, ASSOCIEERT MICRON GEOPENBAARDEwelford uniacke
Credit card debt is the third largest source of indebtedness in the US: Credit card debt management is the solution
According to the reports of the financial analysts, credit card debt is reportedly been the third largest source of household indebtedness only after the $14 trillion in the mortgage debt market and $1 trillion in the student loan debt market. Studies reveal that the average household owes a huge amount on credit cards but the average debt is gradually falling in the first quarter of 2012. Since the same time in 2010, the amount is down nearly by $2000. Does this show that the Americans are repaying their credit card debts? Or are they just walking away from their debt? Though there are so many professional debt relief options that you can take resort to when you fall in debt, most of them are choosing the debt management plan as it tends to help a person pay back debt and also boost his credit score at the same time.
Economy and equity markets: are they disconnected?Markets Beyond
Equity markets are not disconnected from the real economy and there no reason, under the current circumstances, to fear a market collapse. The S&P 500 is however no longer cheap.
The Columbus MSA added 12,300 jobs in 2013 and continues to rank very well against comparable U.S. metros, according to Columbus 2020, the economic development organization in the Columbus Region. The final quarterly economic update for the 2013 calendar year covers regional economic data and development activities in the fourth quarter and throughout the year.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Global Recession And Its Impact On The Asian Economyguest5e256f8
Dr. Bernardo M. Villegas is a renowned economist. A PhD in Economics from Harvard, he is referred to as "Professor of Boom"!!
The presentation predicts the influence of ASEAN power!
STATEN DIE ECONOMIE ZOUDEN LATEN VALLEN, ASSOCIEERT MICRON GEOPENBAARDEwelford uniacke
Credit card debt is the third largest source of indebtedness in the US: Credit card debt management is the solution
According to the reports of the financial analysts, credit card debt is reportedly been the third largest source of household indebtedness only after the $14 trillion in the mortgage debt market and $1 trillion in the student loan debt market. Studies reveal that the average household owes a huge amount on credit cards but the average debt is gradually falling in the first quarter of 2012. Since the same time in 2010, the amount is down nearly by $2000. Does this show that the Americans are repaying their credit card debts? Or are they just walking away from their debt? Though there are so many professional debt relief options that you can take resort to when you fall in debt, most of them are choosing the debt management plan as it tends to help a person pay back debt and also boost his credit score at the same time.
Bill McConnell provides his white paper on the state of the construction industry. 2010 was a recovery year from the Great Recession. Learn valuable insights about the construction industry during this year of recovery.
http://pwc.to/1cpYR81
En octobre, les décideurs de partout dans le monde se sont réunis à Washington DC pour faire le bilan des perspectives économiques mondiales. Pour la première fois depuis 2010, le pronostic d’une reprise soutenue pour les économies développées devrait être positif.
Charting the Financial Crisis: A Narrative eBookShavondaBrandon
The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and subsequent Great Recession constituted the worst shocks to the United States economy in generations. Books have been and will be written about the housing bubble and bust, the financial panic that followed, the economic devastation that resulted, and the steps that various arms of the U.S. and foreign governments took to prevent the Great Depression 2.0. But the story can also be told graphically, as these charts aim to do.
What comes quickly into focus is that as the crisis intensified, so did the government’s response. Although the seeds of the harrowing events of 2007-2009 were sown over decades, and the U.S. government was initially slow to act, the combined efforts of the Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, and other agencies were ultimately forceful, flexible, and effective. Federal regulators greatly expanded their crisis management toolkit as the damage unfolded, moving from traditional and domestic measures to actions that were innovative and sometimes even international in reach. As panic spread, so too did their efforts broaden to quell it. In the end, the government was able to stabilize the system, re-start key financial markets, and limit the extent of the harm to the economy.
No collection of charts, even as extensive as this, can convey all the complexities and details of the crisis and the government’s interventions. But these figures capture the essential features of one of the worst episodes in American economic history and the ultimately successful, even if politically unpopular, government response.
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Mid-Year 2014Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Auto Dealer Industry newsletter provides perspective on valuation issues. Each newsletter also includes a macroeconomic trends, industry trends, and guideline public company metrics.
"The Economy under President Obama" tells the story of the 2009-2016 period using a series of economic and budgetary charts. Definitive non-partisan sources such as the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) and Congressional Budget Office (CBO) are used, along with major media sources.
The presentation covers the Great Recession and response, fiscal policies, trends in major economic variables, income inequality and the ACA/Obamacare. Key questions covered include: 1) What did President Obama and Congress do to help or hinder the recovery? 2) What were the important decisions President Obama had to make? 3) How much of the national debt addition was due to the President's policies? 4) What were the trends in the key economic and budget variables? 5) What economic and budgetary legacy did he pass along?
VERTEX's CEO, Bill McConnell, PE, JD, MSCE, CDT, provides his annual outlook on the state of the Construction industry. The US economy has expanded, albeit slowly, for the past 8+ years. The construction industry, which overcorrected during the Great Recession, has rebounded with vengeance on the heels of record private construction spending. On the other hand, public construction spending was considerably less in 2017 than it was in 2006. Moving forward, all indicators suggest that private construction will slow while public construction spending will soon pick up steam. Also, all good things come to an end, and the current economic expansion will be no different—it is likely the US will enter into a mild recessionary cycle in late 2019 or 2020.
VERTEX's CEO, Bill McConnell, PE, JD, MSCE, CDT, provides his annual outlook on the state of the Construction industry. The US economy has expanded, albeit slowly, for the past 8+ years. The construction industry, which over-corrected during the Great Recession, has rebounded with vengeance on the heels of record private construction spending. On the other hand, public construction spending was considerably less in 2017 than it was in 2006. Moving forward, all indicators suggest that private construction will slow while public construction spending will soon pick up steam. Also, all good things come to an end, and the current economic expansion will be no different—it is likely the US will enter into a mild recessionary cycle in late 2019 or 2020.
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Auto Dealer Industry | Year-End 2014Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Auto Dealer Industry newsletter provides perspective on valuation issues. Each newsletter also includes a macroeconomic trends, industry trends, and guideline public company metrics.
Did you know total nonfarm payroll employment fell by 701,000 in March 2020, measuring the effects of COVID-19 and efforts to contain it? Employment in leisure and hospitality fell by 459,000, mainly in food services and drinking places. Notable declines also occurred in health care and social assistance, professional and business services, retail trade, and construction.
The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and subsequent Great Recession constituted the worst shocks to the United States economy in generations. Books have been and will be written about the housing bubble and bust, the financial panic that followed, the economic devastation that resulted, and the steps that various arms of the U.S. and foreign governments took to prevent the Great Depression 2.0. But the story can also be told graphically, as these charts aim to do.
What comes quickly into focus is that as the crisis intensified, so did the government’s response. Although the seeds of the harrowing events of 2007-2009 were sown over decades, and the U.S. government was initially slow to act, the combined efforts of the Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, and other agencies were ultimately forceful, flexible, and effective. Federal regulators greatly expanded their crisis management toolkit as the damage unfolded, moving from traditional and domestic measures to actions that were innovative and sometimes even international in reach. As panic spread, so too did their efforts broaden to quell it. In the end, the government was able to stabilize the system, re-start key financial markets, and limit the extent of the harm to the economy.
No collection of charts, even as extensive as this, can convey all the complexities and details of the crisis and the government’s interventions. But these figures capture the essential features of one of the worst episodes in American economic history and the ultimately successful, even if politically unpopular, government response.
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
Introduction to Indian Financial System ()Avanish Goel
The financial system of a country is an important tool for economic development of the country, as it helps in creation of wealth by linking savings with investments.
It facilitates the flow of funds form the households (savers) to business firms (investors) to aid in wealth creation and development of both the parties
how can I sell pi coins after successfully completing KYCDOT TECH
Pi coins is not launched yet in any exchange 💱 this means it's not swappable, the current pi displaying on coin market cap is the iou version of pi. And you can learn all about that on my previous post.
RIGHT NOW THE ONLY WAY you can sell pi coins is through verified pi merchants. A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges and crypto whales. Looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale or ico offerings, the only way to get my coins is from buying from miners. So a merchant facilitates the transactions between the miners and these exchanges holding pi.
I and my friends has sold more than 6000 pi coins successfully with this method. I will be happy to share the contact of my personal pi merchant. The one i trade with, if you have your own merchant you can trade with them. For those who are new.
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram.
I wouldn't advise you selling all percentage of the pi coins. Leave at least a before so its a win win during open mainnet. Have a nice day pioneers ♥️
#kyc #mainnet #picoins #pi #sellpi #piwallet
#pinetwork
The Evolution of Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) in India: Challenges...beulahfernandes8
Role in Financial System
NBFCs are critical in bridging the financial inclusion gap.
They provide specialized financial services that cater to segments often neglected by traditional banks.
Economic Impact
NBFCs contribute significantly to India's GDP.
They support sectors like micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), housing finance, and personal loans.
where can I find a legit pi merchant onlineDOT TECH
Yes. This is very easy what you need is a recommendation from someone who has successfully traded pi coins before with a merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold thousands of pi coins before the open mainnet.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with
@Pi_vendor_247
what is the future of Pi Network currency.DOT TECH
The future of the Pi cryptocurrency is uncertain, and its success will depend on several factors. Pi is a relatively new cryptocurrency that aims to be user-friendly and accessible to a wide audience. Here are a few key considerations for its future:
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram if u want to sell PI COINS.
1. Mainnet Launch: As of my last knowledge update in January 2022, Pi was still in the testnet phase. Its success will depend on a successful transition to a mainnet, where actual transactions can take place.
2. User Adoption: Pi's success will be closely tied to user adoption. The more users who join the network and actively participate, the stronger the ecosystem can become.
3. Utility and Use Cases: For a cryptocurrency to thrive, it must offer utility and practical use cases. The Pi team has talked about various applications, including peer-to-peer transactions, smart contracts, and more. The development and implementation of these features will be essential.
4. Regulatory Environment: The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies is evolving globally. How Pi navigates and complies with regulations in various jurisdictions will significantly impact its future.
5. Technology Development: The Pi network must continue to develop and improve its technology, security, and scalability to compete with established cryptocurrencies.
6. Community Engagement: The Pi community plays a critical role in its future. Engaged users can help build trust and grow the network.
7. Monetization and Sustainability: The Pi team's monetization strategy, such as fees, partnerships, or other revenue sources, will affect its long-term sustainability.
It's essential to approach Pi or any new cryptocurrency with caution and conduct due diligence. Cryptocurrency investments involve risks, and potential rewards can be uncertain. The success and future of Pi will depend on the collective efforts of its team, community, and the broader cryptocurrency market dynamics. It's advisable to stay updated on Pi's development and follow any updates from the official Pi Network website or announcements from the team.
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024 - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...Quotidiano Piemontese
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024
Una ricerca de il Club degli Investitori, in collaborazione con ToTeM Torino Tech Map e con il supporto della ESCP Business School e di Growth Capital
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
4. Contributions to GDP Growth by Component Q3 2008 – Q4 2009 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
5. Historic and Projected Real GDP Growth around the World 2007 – 2011* The world-wide recession is over with emerging market economies led by China, India and Brazil leading the overseas recovery. For the first time in post WWII history, the U.S. and Europe are not the locomotives of worldwide economic growth. However both the U.S. and Europe are recovering led by government stimulus programs. Barring a “double dip “ recession on the expiration of government stimulus later in 2010, the estimates below of worldwide economic growth in 2011 are likely to be exceeded, particularly in developing countries. *2008/09 data are actual Source: International Monetary Fund
6. S&P Reported Operating Earnings for Listed CompaniesQ1 2000-Q4 2009* Source: Standard & Poors
8. Capacity Utilization by Status of ProductionJanuary, 2008 – December, 2009 Source: Federal Reserve Bank
9. Manufacturers Orders & ShipmentsExcluding TransportationJanuary, 2008 – December, 2009 Source: Census Bureau
10. Net Change in U.S. Jobs (Total Non-farm)January, 2006 – January, 2010 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
11. National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector GroupsDecember, 2007 – January, 2010 The loss of jobs is pervasive throughout the entire economy and has not spared previously immune professional , executive and managerial positions. This has been as much, if not more, a white collar, middle class recession. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
12. Initial Unemployment Claims January, 2009 – January, 2010 Reflecting the rise in unemployment, new job losses rose dramatically in the first quarter of 2009. The trend of new job losses has been declining since then but reversed to the upside in January. The absolute level of new job loss remains high. Source: Department of Labor
14. Number of Unemployed on Federal Extended Benefit ProgramsMay, 2008 – January, 2010 Source: Department of Labor
15. Retail Sales Less Food and Fuel September, 2007 – December, 2009 Consumer CreditQ3 2006 – November, 2009 Consumer spending stabilized in the second quarter and improved in the third. Since the third quarter of 2008 consumer spending had been declining and the consumer has been paying down outstanding debt. These trends have been negative for the economy in the short term but the reduction of consumer debt and an increase in consumer savings are positive for the economy and the improved creditworthiness of the consumer longer term. Source: (Left) Census Bureau, (Right) Federal Reserve Bank
16. National Saving Rateas Percentage of Personal Disposable IncomeQ1 2005 – Q4 2009 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
17. New Home Sales Units Sold v. Length on Market April, 2006 - December, 2009 Existing Home Sales v. Length on MarketApril, 2006 - December, 2009 Housing sales have improved since March, 2009 and inventories have declined, particularly in new home construction. The improvement in housing reflects the government’s buyer tax credit, the cutback in new home construction, much reduced home prices and lower mortgage interest rates. Source: (Left) National Association of Realtors, (Right) Census Bureau
20. Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS): Delinquency Rates for All Private-labels* Q2 2006 – Q3 2009 Source: Mortgage Banker’s Association *CMBS issued by private entities (i.e. other than Fannie Mae, Ginnie Mae, or Freddie Mac). The percentage of loans that are 30-days delinquent. The delinquency includes foreclosed estates.
21. Real Estate & Consumer Loan Delinquency Rates: All Banks and Financial Institutions Q2 2007 –Q3 2009 Source: Federal Reserve Bank
22. While inflation has declined precipitously in the recession led by the collapse in energy and commodity prices. After bottoming in July, 2009, prices are moving up, driven by the reversal in energy prices. In addition, basic services, healthcare and education prices remain stubbornly high. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
23. Crude Oil Spot Prices in U.S. DollarsFebruary, 2005 – February, 2010 Source: Energy Information Administration
24. Nominal Broad Dollar Index* August, 2000 – February, 2010 * Broad Dollar Index: a weighted average of the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of a broad group of major U.S. trading partners. Source: Federal Reserve Board
26. Money Supply (M2): January, 2007 – December, 2009 Source: Federal Reserve Bank
27. U.S. Federal Budget Deficit, 1995-2012* *2010-2012 data are projections Source: Congressional Budget Office
28. Federal Reserve Balance Sheet: Reserve Bank CreditJune, 2008 – February, 2010 Source: Federal Reserve Bank
29. Federal Fund Rates, January, 2008 - February, 2010 3-month LIBOR rates lent in $US January, 2008 - February, 2010 The Fed and European Central Bank have cut interest rates to the banking systems here and abroad thus driving down the cost of bank funds to facilitate bank lending. The Fed has indicated it will continue to keep interest rates low for the time being but it will have to raise interest rates when the economy strengthens. Source: (Left) Federal Reserve Bank, (Right) British Banker’s Association
30. Where are the opportunities? Healthcare Education Worker Retraining Agriculture Energy Conservation Environmental Solutions Electric Power Transportation – Increase Mass Transit Exports Water Conservation – New Supplies and Recycling U.S. Government Procurement and Outsourcing – Base Realignment Program (BRAC) Real Estate – Recycle and Rehab Existing Commercial and Residential Property
31. Overview of Where the $787 Billion is Going: Break-down of the Stimulus Dollars by Sectors Source: Recovery.gov
32. Conclusions The deep and protracted recession that began in the fourth quarter of 2007 ended in the third quarter of 2009 and recovery accelerated in the fourth quarter thanks to federal stimulus, increased factory orders and reduced inventory liquidation. The continuation of government stimulus is expected to lead to further GDP growth in the first half of 2010 but at lower growth rates from the outsized gain in Q’4, ‘09. Second half 2010 economic growth will depend on contributions from the private sector and job creation. Emerging industrialized economies, led by accelerated growth in China, are outpacing the U.S. in economic recovery and are poised to grow faster than the U.S. in 2010.
33. Conclusions continued Despite government stimulus the U.S. economy still faces near term economic pressures which include: high cost and reduced availability of credit improving but continued low level of corporate profits continuing high levels of unemployment continued weak levels of corporate capital and consumer spending severe reductions in state and local government spending and eroded municipal financial strength continued credit pressures in residential housing and consumer lending extending to commercial real estate markets and corporate lending
34. Conclusions continued After an expected cyclical recovery in 2010-2012, we believe longer term socio-economic issues facing this country will result in slower future economic growth for the United States featuring reduced growth in consumer spending, high levels of national debt and increased entitlement spending. In addition, the availability and cost of credit, particularly to consumers, will be more restricted and expensive in the future, further curtailing the growth in private sector spending longer term.
35. Thank You You can always reach me at msegall@spgtrend.com Also, if you need us in a hurry, we are at 410.522.7243 Please contact us when you require economic and capital markets research & policy analysis. Further information available at www.spgtrend.com