How many times has someone asked you how long it would take to build some software even before they have told you how it might work? Do you think you could estimate a series of random tasks within 90% accuracy? We’ll do an interesting exercise in estimation and then talk about the value your estimates provide. We will talk about three steps to improve your estimates right away and discuss other methods of estimation. This talk is an excerpt from a workshop held at PNSQC 2016

1. Three Steps to Better Estimation
1@mxmoss © 2020 Moss Drake - All Rights Reserved.

2. Philip Lew
Program Chair
@philiplew @pnsqc

3. PNSQC – THE ORGANIZATION
• The oldest software quality conference in North America now in its 38th
year.
• Annual conference held in Portland, Oregon.
• Non-profit organization.
• PNSQC is it is an all volunteer conference.
• Focuses on the quality practitioner.
• A range of topics and speakers - everything from automation and distributed
teams to measuring quality and AI/ML.
• Speakers describing their own experiences, not by consultants, not vendors.
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4. CALL FOR ABSTRACTS - #PNSQC2020
• Call for Abstracts is open until April 15, 2020
• All it takes is a paragraph or two for an abstract.
• If your proposal is accepted you can count on a
lot of support to help you through the paper
writing process.
#PNSQC2020 4

5. SUBMITTING IS EASY-3 OPTIONS
• Write a Technical Paper.
• Write a Technical Brief.
• Deliver a Poster Paper.
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6. WRITING AN ABSTRACT
• Motivation: Why do we care?
○Problem statement: What are you trying to solve?
○Approach: How was problem solved?
○Results: How well did your solution work?
○Conclusions/Summary: Implications.
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7. PNSQC – SPEAKER BENEFITS
• The sense of community and camaraderie
• Professional development
• Free/reduced discounts. An easier sale to bosses.
• As an author, you get access to colleagues who care about
seeing you succeed.
• Public speaking experience and skills in a casual, yet
professional environment.
• Your presentations and papers - part of the PNSQC
archive, a permanent, online knowledge library
containing decades of software quality presentations and
technical papers.
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8. About Me
•Developer and project leader who has been developing professional
software for nearly three decades.
•Certified Scrum Master
•Focus on vertical market software for health & insurance industries.
•Marketing Chair for PNSQC 2020
Contact
•@mxmoss
•mxmossman@gmail.com
•www.mossdrake.com
@mxmoss Three Steps to Better Estimation

9. Estimating Exercise
•Heaviest blue whale ever recorded (in pounds)
•How high (in meters) is the tallest building in Africa?
•How many babies named Sandra born in U.S. in the 1940s?
•How many published lines did Shakespeare write?
•How many people died in car crashes in Israel and the West Bank in
2014?
•How many people were born in Japan in 2014?
•How many vehicles traveled on the Washington State Ferries in 2012?
•Latitude of Shanghai
•Number of book titles published in the U.S. since 1776
•Surface temperature of the sun
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@mxmoss Three Steps to Better Estimation
Adapted from Software Estimation by Steve McConnell, 2006 Microsoft Press

10. Estimating Exercise
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@mxmoss Three Steps to Better Estimation

11. Estimating Exercise*
•Heaviest blue whale ever recorded
Answer: 380,000 pounds
•How high is the tallest building in Africa?
Answer: 223 meters
•How many babies named Sandra were born in the U.S. in the 1940s?
Answer: 264,518
•How many lines did Shakespeare write (in published material)?
Answer: 118,406
•How many people died in car crashes in Israel and the West Bank in
2014?
Answer: 290
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@mxmoss Three Steps to Better Estimation

12. Estimating Exercise*
•How many people were born in Japan in 2014?
Answer: 1,000,000
•How many vehicles traveled on the Washington State Ferries in
2012?
Answer: 10 million
•Latitude of Shanghai
Answer: 31 degrees North
•Number of book titles published in the U.S. since 1776
Answer: 22 million
•Surface temperature of the sun
Answer: 10,000F / 6,000C
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@mxmoss Three Steps to Better Estimation

13. Why do people ask for Estimates?
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@mxmoss Three Steps to Better Estimation

14. Why do people ask for Estimates?
● What is the effort?
● Will it be ready before...
● Will it be done "on time"?
● How many people should work on it?
● How much will it cost?
● Should I do project A or B?
● How long will it take to fix a bug?
● How long to deliver a feature to a big customer?
● How long will it take to do "everything"?
● Should I do this project?
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15. Improving Estimates - Step 1
Give a range when estimating
• Numbers are for facts.
• Ranges provide insight into the uncertainty
• Accuracy should match precision
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16. Improving Estimates - Step 2
Include probability in your
estimate
● 0% chance < Jan 1
● Best guess (eg April 1)
● 50% certainty (May 1)
● 0% chance > Dec 31 16
@mxmoss
From “Waltzing With Bears” by Tom DeMarco
Three Steps to Better Estimation

17. Improving Estimates - Step 3
Update your estimate as you get more info
● Ask what the estimate will be used for
● Use past projects to compare relative sizes
● Remember: Estimating is not the same as committing
● The larger the project or the farther into the future,
the harder to predict
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@mxmoss Three Steps to Better Estimation

18. Beyond Estimates
• Identify true deadlines vs. artificial goals
• Time boxes allow discrete “whole number” estimates
• Forecasting vs Estimation
• “No estimates” school of thought
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19. References

20. Thanks!
• Dream in years
• Plan in months
• Evaluate in weeks
• Ship daily
DJ Patil, Chief Data Scientist, U.S. Office of Science & Technology Policy
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@mxmoss Three Steps to Better Estimation