Thinking Inside the Risky Bucket

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This document from Strategic Asset Alliance discusses risk taking among insurance company peers and how to determine risk appetite. It analyzes types of risky assets held as percentages of surplus for property/casualty, life, and health insurers. It also looks at risk asset allocation and leverage metrics for government risk pools. The document suggests additional asset classes to consider and discusses using drawdown analysis and reasonable comparisons to determine an organization's risk appetite.

Economy & Finance

© STRATEGIC ASSET ALLIANCE, INC. Document not to be reproduced without the explicit consent of SAA.
Thinking Inside the Risky Bucket
March 19th, 2015
Mr. Alton Cogert, CFA, CPA, CAIA, CGMA
- President and Chief Executive Officer
Mr. Daniel G. Smereck
- Managing Director

 Where are my peers taking risks?
 What should be considered?
 How to determine risk appetite?
2
Thinking Inside the Risky Bucket

WHERE ARE MY PEERS TAKING RISKS?
3Source: Strategic Asset Alliance, SNL

5
Bonds Rated BBB/Surplus – P/C
Source: Strategic Asset Alliance, SNL
*NAIC bonds rated 2

6
High Yield/Surplus – P/C
Source: Strategic Asset Alliance, SNL
*NAIC rated bonds 3-6

7
Common Stock/Surplus – P/C
Source: Strategic Asset Alliance, SNL

8
Risk Assets/Surplus
Source: Strategic Asset Alliance, SNL
*Risk assets include High Yield, Common Stock, Preferred Stock, & Schedule Ba

9
Financial Leverage – P/C
Source: Strategic Asset Alliance, SNL
*Total Liabilities/Surplus

10
Operating Leverage – P/C
Source: Strategic Asset Alliance, SNL
*Net Premiums/Surplus

12
Bonds Rated BBB/Surplus - Life
Source: Strategic Asset Alliance, SNL
*NAIC bonds rated 2

13
High Yield/Surplus - Life
Source: Strategic Asset Alliance, SNL
*NAIC rated bonds 3-6

14
Common Stock/Surplus - Life
Source: Strategic Asset Alliance, SNL

15
Risk Assets/Surplus - Life
Source: Strategic Asset Alliance, SNL
*Risk assets include High Yield, Common Stock, Preferred Stock, & Schedule Ba

16
Financial Leverage - Life
Source: Strategic Asset Alliance, SNL
*Total Liabilities/Surplus

17
Operating Leverage - Life
Source: Strategic Asset Alliance, SNL
*Net Premiums/Surplus

19
Bonds Rated BBB/Surplus
Source: Strategic Asset Alliance, SNL
*NAIC bonds rated 2

20
High Yield/Surplus
Source: Strategic Asset Alliance, SNL
*NAIC rated bonds 3-6

21
Common Stock/Surplus
Source: Strategic Asset Alliance, SNL

22
Risk Assets/Surplus
Source: Strategic Asset Alliance, SNL
*Risk assets include High Yield, Common Stock, Preferred Stock, & Schedule Ba

23
Financial Leverage
Source: Strategic Asset Alliance, SNL
*Total Liabilities/Surplus

24
Operating Leverage
Source: Strategic Asset Alliance, SNL
*Net Premiums/Surplus

 SAA Governmental Pooling Clients
o 15 Clients (12 Primary / 3 Reinsurers)
o 25 Portfolios
o $2.6B In Assets
$2.2B Core Fixed Income (85%)
$0.4B Risk Assets (15%)
26
Peer Analysis Overview

27
Risk Asset Allocation: % of Members Equity

29
Investment Leverage & Risk Asset Allocation

30
Risk Asset Allocation & Fixed Income Duration

WHAT SHOULD BE CONSIDERED?
31Source: Strategic Asset Alliance, SNL

© STRATEGIC ASSET ALLIANCE, INC. Document not to be reproduced without the explicit consent of SAA.
 Asset classes not noted in Q3 US/Canada Searches that we have seen:
o Bank Loans
o Commercial Mortgage Loans
o High Grade High Yield Bonds
o Private Placements
 Also seen, as in Q3 US/Canada Searches:
o Dividend Equity
o Emerging Market Equities
o Various Style Box Equities – US and Non-US – ETFs/Index Funds
What SAA has seen…

© STRATEGIC ASSET ALLIANCE, INC. Document not to be reproduced without the explicit consent of SAA.
 Unconstrained Bond Strategies
 Varied ETF Strategies
 ‘Smart’ Beta Strategies
 ‘New and Improved’ Structured Securities
 Other
But there will be more to consider, including…

HOW TO DETERMINE RISK APPETITE?
34Source: Strategic Asset Alliance, SNL

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Thinking Inside the Risky Bucket

1. © STRATEGIC ASSET ALLIANCE, INC. Document not to be reproduced without the explicit consent of SAA. Thinking Inside the Risky Bucket March 19th, 2015 Mr. Alton Cogert, CFA, CPA, CAIA, CGMA - President and Chief Executive Officer Mr. Daniel G. Smereck - Managing Director

2.  Where are my peers taking risks?  What should be considered?  How to determine risk appetite? 2 Thinking Inside the Risky Bucket

3. WHERE ARE MY PEERS TAKING RISKS? 3Source: Strategic Asset Alliance, SNL

4. P/C INSURERS 4

5. 5 Bonds Rated BBB/Surplus – P/C Source: Strategic Asset Alliance, SNL *NAIC bonds rated 2

6. 6 High Yield/Surplus – P/C Source: Strategic Asset Alliance, SNL *NAIC rated bonds 3-6

7. 7 Common Stock/Surplus – P/C Source: Strategic Asset Alliance, SNL

8. 8 Risk Assets/Surplus Source: Strategic Asset Alliance, SNL *Risk assets include High Yield, Common Stock, Preferred Stock, & Schedule Ba

9. 9 Financial Leverage – P/C Source: Strategic Asset Alliance, SNL *Total Liabilities/Surplus

10. 10 Operating Leverage – P/C Source: Strategic Asset Alliance, SNL *Net Premiums/Surplus

11. LIFE INSURERS 11

12. 12 Bonds Rated BBB/Surplus - Life Source: Strategic Asset Alliance, SNL *NAIC bonds rated 2

13. 13 High Yield/Surplus - Life Source: Strategic Asset Alliance, SNL *NAIC rated bonds 3-6

14. 14 Common Stock/Surplus - Life Source: Strategic Asset Alliance, SNL

15. 15 Risk Assets/Surplus - Life Source: Strategic Asset Alliance, SNL *Risk assets include High Yield, Common Stock, Preferred Stock, & Schedule Ba

16. 16 Financial Leverage - Life Source: Strategic Asset Alliance, SNL *Total Liabilities/Surplus

17. 17 Operating Leverage - Life Source: Strategic Asset Alliance, SNL *Net Premiums/Surplus

18. HEALTH INSURERS 18

19. 19 Bonds Rated BBB/Surplus Source: Strategic Asset Alliance, SNL *NAIC bonds rated 2

20. 20 High Yield/Surplus Source: Strategic Asset Alliance, SNL *NAIC rated bonds 3-6

21. 21 Common Stock/Surplus Source: Strategic Asset Alliance, SNL

22. 22 Risk Assets/Surplus Source: Strategic Asset Alliance, SNL *Risk assets include High Yield, Common Stock, Preferred Stock, & Schedule Ba

23. 23 Financial Leverage Source: Strategic Asset Alliance, SNL *Total Liabilities/Surplus

24. 24 Operating Leverage Source: Strategic Asset Alliance, SNL *Net Premiums/Surplus

25. GOVERNMENT RISK POOLS 25

26.  SAA Governmental Pooling Clients o 15 Clients (12 Primary / 3 Reinsurers) o 25 Portfolios o $2.6B In Assets $2.2B Core Fixed Income (85%) $0.4B Risk Assets (15%) 26 Peer Analysis Overview

27. 27 Risk Asset Allocation: % of Members Equity

28. 28 Risk Asset Allocation

29. 29 Investment Leverage & Risk Asset Allocation

30. 30 Risk Asset Allocation & Fixed Income Duration

31. WHAT SHOULD BE CONSIDERED? 31Source: Strategic Asset Alliance, SNL

32. © STRATEGIC ASSET ALLIANCE, INC. Document not to be reproduced without the explicit consent of SAA.  Asset classes not noted in Q3 US/Canada Searches that we have seen: o Bank Loans o Commercial Mortgage Loans o High Grade High Yield Bonds o Private Placements  Also seen, as in Q3 US/Canada Searches: o Dividend Equity o Emerging Market Equities o Various Style Box Equities – US and Non-US – ETFs/Index Funds What SAA has seen…

33. © STRATEGIC ASSET ALLIANCE, INC. Document not to be reproduced without the explicit consent of SAA.  Unconstrained Bond Strategies  Varied ETF Strategies  ‘Smart’ Beta Strategies  ‘New and Improved’ Structured Securities  Other But there will be more to consider, including…

34. HOW TO DETERMINE RISK APPETITE? 34Source: Strategic Asset Alliance, SNL

35. 35 Drawdown Analysis

36. 36 A ‘More Reasonable’ Comparison

37. 37 A ‘More Reasonable’ Comparison…?