How a Hedge Fund Manager uses Technical Analysis to Profit and Manage Risk by JC Parets, Founder, Eagle Bay Capital, LLC

1. J.C. Parets, CMT
Stocktoberfest 2013

2. Disclaimer
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trends which are based on current market conditions
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3. J.C. Parets, CMT Founder of Eagle Bay Capital, LLC

4. Investment Process: Top/Down Method
Top Down Method
Analyze all Asset Classes across the Globe
i.e., stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies
Narrow Focus to Select Concepts
i.e., US Stocks trending higher, Precious Metals basing, etc.
Focus on the specific Trades:
(Indices and Metals example)
i.e., Short Russell 2000, Long Nasdaq, Long Silver
and Gold
Risk Analysis & Stress Test
Portfolio
Allocation
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5. US Stock Sectors Positive Correlations (1 year)
http://www.macroaxis.com/
5

6. Global Index Correlations (1 year)
http://www.macroaxis.com/
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7. Global Index Correlations (Stocktoberfest 2012)
http://www.macroaxis.com/
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8. Correlation: S&P500 & Berkshire Hathaway
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9. Correlation: S&P500 & Berkshire Hathaway
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10. Correlation: S&P500 & Berkshire Hathaway
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11. Strategy: Momentum Analysis
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12. Momentum: Silver Futures
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13. Strategy: Sentiment
* AAII % from Avg
Source: Fusion IQ
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14. Euro Barron’s July 16, 2012
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15. Momentum: EURUSD Bottom July 24, 2012
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16. Euro Stoxx 50 2012 – Bottom July 24
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17. Barron’s December 24, 2012
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18. 4 days later? Europe100 vs S&P 100
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19. Seasonality: DJIA 1886-2012
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20. Seasonality: Presidential Cycle
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21. Seasonality: Natural Gas
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22. Sentiment: Natural Gas
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23. Price: Natural Gas (2-hour time frames)
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24. NatGas Trade
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25. NYSE 52-week lows 2009 bottom
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26. NYSE 52-week Highs Present
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27. Markert Internals
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28. Risk Management
5000.00
4500.00
4000.00
3500.00
3000.00
2500.00
2000.00
1500.00
1000.00
500.00
SPX
Jun-12
Jan-12
Aug-11
Mar-11
Oct-10
May-10
Dec-09
Jul-09
Feb-09
Sep-08
Apr-08
Nov-07
Jun-07
Jan-07
Aug-06
Mar-06
Oct-05
May-05
Dec-04
Jul-04
Feb-04
Sep-03
Apr-03
Nov-02
Jun-02
Jan-02
0.00
No Draw
The chart above shows the difference in performance of the S&P 500 by simply avoiding
these three drawdown periods.
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29. Treasuries Long in May
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30. Oops!
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31. DJIA
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32. Ireland
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33. Netherlands
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34. DJIA
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35. Nikkei
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36. USD/JPY
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37. AAPL
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38. Bonds Sentiment
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39. Bonds C.O.T. Report
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40. Bonds Seasonality
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41. Bonds Momentum Diverging
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42. Contact Us
J.C. Parets, CMT
Founder & President
jc@eaglebaycapital.com
212.808.0911
535 Fifth Avenue - 25th Floor
New York, NY 10017