the macroeconomic framework
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The document discusses the key elements of developing a macroeconomic framework, including: 1) Having macroeconomic goals and a policy framework to guide sectoral projections for real, external, fiscal, and monetary sectors. 2) Creating projections for these sectors that are consistent with each other and the policy framework/goals. This involves forecasting GDP, prices, the balance of payments, fiscal accounts, and monetary indicators. 3) Iteratively revising the projections and calibrating policies to address any tensions between the projections, goals, and existing policies. The overall process aims to develop internally consistent macroeconomic projections.
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Fiscal policy refers to the government's use of spending and tax policies to influence economic conditions. The key instruments of fiscal policy are the budget, taxation, public expenditure, and public debt. Governments use fiscal policy to achieve macroeconomic goals like employment generation and economic growth. India's fiscal policy aims to stabilize the economy and reduce fiscal deficits. Recent reforms have aimed to simplify taxes, lower rates, and reduce non-essential spending.
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Fiscal policy deals with a government's taxation and spending decisions and can be used to influence economic outcomes. The objectives of fiscal policy include increasing capital formation and achieving desirable levels of growth, prices, consumption, employment, and income distribution. A government implements fiscal policy through tax collection, spending, and borrowing. Fiscal policy positions can be neutral, expansionary, or contractionary depending on whether spending exceeds, equals, or is less than tax revenue. India aims to reduce its fiscal deficit through annual targets and reforms to taxation and expenditures.
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the macroeconomic framework
- 1. The Macroeconomic Framework Given a set of macroeconomic goals and a policy framework, a macroeconomic framework is a set of sectoral projections (for the real, external, fiscal, and monetary sectors) consistent with each other, consistent with the policy framework, and consistent with the macroeconomic goals
- 2. Examples of macroeconomic goals • Preserve macro stability—growth at around 7%, inflation below 5%, keep government debt on a sustainable path, and build-up official reserves • Engineer a soft landing from unsustainable growth rates • Lower inflation to single digits • Fiscal consolidation: Reduce debt to X% of GDP by 2008 • Return the BOP to sustainability by reducing the current account deficit to X% of GDP over the medium term
- 3. Elements/examples of a policy framework • Fiscal responsibility legislation • Exchange rate regime • Inflation targeting or reserve money targeting frameworks for monetary policy • Structural policies
- 4. Real sector projections • GDP Production approach: GDP= sum of value added across sectors Expenditure approach: GDP=C+I+X-M Ensure consistency with fiscal accounts (C and I) and the BOP (X and M) Key link with BOP: S-I=CAB where S=National saving=GDP+Net Foreign Income+Net transfers-Consumption
- 5. • Prices: CPI and GDP deflator Exchange rate regime What are cost pressures raising prices? What is the stance of economic policies? Estimate impact of changes to regulated prices, competition policy, or trade policy
- 6. Forecasting the BOP • Decide appropriate level of disaggregation for projections • Consider developments in economies of main trading partners; terms of trade; competitiveness trends • Consistency with fiscal accounts: Grants and loan disbursements/repayments • Key lines in Bhutan: X and M; Transportation and travel; factor income; remittances and grants; government loans.
- 7. Projections for fiscal accounts • Revenues: Tax revenue: First do “passive” projections, based on existing policies. Then, add/subtract from expected policy changes. Non-tax revenue: Key in Bhutan (dividends, profit transfers, and operating surpluses of departmental enterprises). It pays to work out detailed projections by source. Grants: Key in Bhutan. Need to be realistic and coordinate closely with donors. Retain flexibility in executing fiscal policy.
- 8. • Expenditures Key lines in Bhutan: wages; interest payments; capex; and net lending. • Financing: Foreign—disbursements and amortization; and domestic—bank and non-bank.
- 9. Monetary projections • Estimating a demand for money consistent with growth and inflation projections P Y=M V • Monetary survey: NFA linked to BOP; Government credit from the fiscal accounts; and private net domestic credit usually a residual. • But is private sector credit growth consistent with growth projections?
- 10. Developing a macro framework is an iterative process • Initial projections may expose some tensions/imbalances between outcomes, goals and policies Need to calibrate: Nature, seriousness, and source of the imbalances Possible rememedies